This is Dane Stangler's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Dane Stangler's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Dane Stangler
Recent Activity
Thanks, Kevin. Great suggestions. These also seem to underscore the point that what we see as a dataset "exit" could reflect numerous possible scenarios. And you're right: within those aggregate numbers is lots of repetition in terms of multiple foundings, exits, and more foundings. It's exactly that variation on which we need to get a better grasp. Thank you!
Also a good point, Campusentrepreneurship, and that NYT story was excellent. But remember that the story also noted that Apple manufactured products in the United States for 25 years before moving more offshore.
Good catch, Keith. I heartily agree with Brink's terrific paper. But entrepreneurship wasn't dead in that period. On a per capita basis, in fact, firm formation in the 1940s and 1950s was the same level as today. And the 1960s saw more future Fortune 500 companies founded than in all but three other decades in the last 150 years.
Thanks, Paul. I also wished I had included a reference to studies that have found "no evidence of any relationship between political knowledge (percentage of correct answers to factual political questions) and self-interest to explain policy attitudes." So all those well-informed economists may not turn out to be "better" voters than the public they criticize.
Good comments all around. I agree with Paul that there might also be multiple equilibria and so setting up a binary success/collapse framework is a bit misleading. Ward-Perkins appeared to do so. Eric makes a good point in terms of distinguishing natural and artificial (as in human created or engineered) complexity, although it seems to me that human complex systems can also be evolved, not necessarily purposefully planned and engineered. One further point to add to this discussion is that complexity needn't imply either fragility or robustness, which is the typical dichotomy. As Stephen Jay Gould was so fond of pointing out, later-stage organisms were more "complex" than early organisms simply because there was a left wall of simplicity that meant subsequent development would be more complex. The strength or weakness of a complex system will depend on the circumstances, won't it?
Good point, Adam; spot on about Olson. Note that I'm not saying it takes more than a small minority to precipitate and consummate a revolution (the American Revolution being Exhibit A for your points)--I'm specifically taking issue with the media and others' immediate impulse to declare Twitter a revolutionary technology (double entendre intended). The mere whiff of Twitter around the Iranian protests, irrespective of any systematic evidence, was enough to tend techno-utopians into gleeful new age reveries.
Milton: Sort of. In my experience, doctors' offices will leave messages about things besides appointments if you OK it, and if you have been a patient for sufficient time. And you hit on part of the point: HIPAA has had all sorts of ridiculous consequences, like requiring hospitals to tear out all existing doorways and make them bigger. There has been some talk in the reform debate about "integrated care" a la the Mayo Clinic. But you probably can't mandate integration. As you point out, we can't solve bureaucracy with bureaucracy without creating an entirely new tangle of unintended administrative consequences. I'm sure that whatever gains we're making w/r/t longevity and healths are eaten into (albeit in small amounts) by the time expended on navigating the labyrinth and the frustration such time-wasting produces.
Thanks, Derek. As always, insightful remarks. W/r/t middle class incomes, I agree with you that things have gotten better over the long term. My specific point was as to Tim's observation and incomes. Obviously, that's not the entire picture, and consumption perhaps offers a better measure of comparison. When we compare middle-class Joe in 2008 to middle-class Joe in 1908, consumption is the difference, with income meaning very little. But in the short-term, we're comparing middle-class Joe to himself only five years before, which makes income a sharper relative measure (especially since the consumption was likely debt-fueled over this particular time period). I think we're in agreement on the future of energy point. I never said we need a plan or strategy because I think you're right. And your point about not being able envision the future (whether it turns out good or bad) is what I said is a cause for strong optimism: that human knowledge advances just as you say. If we were to charge a committee to set forth an energy plan, then we might just add to our worries.
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2009 on The Distinct Dystopian Possibility at Growthology
Keith, Good points, but I'm talking about something more general than the question of what would happen if newspapers went away. The effect on the news ecosystem would be deleterious, but my point is that we should welcome it-that the news ecosystem itself is corrosive of democracy and that without it, we would be better off, or at least not any worse off than right now. Perhaps I take the analogy from the in-depth baseball blogs too far, but their success has zero relation to whether or not this morning's sports page exists. I suspect the same thing will/would happen in news with the appearance of new business models. Politico might be News Future 1.0 in this sense. There are other new ventures out there on the horizon too that will continue to proliferate.
Derek: Good comments. I would slightly disagree with the assertion, "saying we need more entrepreneurs also implies that we need fewer people in established firms." If the rate of new firm creation has been falling because it hasn't kept up with population growth, despite rising absolute numbers, than an increase in entrepreneurship wouldn't really "take" from established firms as it would shift the incremental population growth.
Jacob: Good point. I should have been more nuanced in my characterization. But you're making the same point from a different angle: even if the protesters succeed, even if Moussavi takes office, the nuclear program is highly unlikely to end. That's the point. If we look only at geopolitics and Iran's nuclear program, Twitter matters zero. I also find it hard to believe that the Obama Administration will forgive Iran's nuclear program as a matter of rational strategic action. Lots of things are rational; that doesn't mean they're good.
Toggle Commented Jun 18, 2009 on Protests = Democracy? at Growthology