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Glen B. Alleman
Performance-Based Project Management® in software intensive system of system
Interests: Earned Value, Risk, Cost, Program Performance, Integrated Master Plan, Integrated Master Schedule.
Recent Activity
There is an article in the current edition of The New Yorker about a solitary journey across Antarctica, by Henry Worsley. I wrote a paper in 2005 for our Program Management Office, Project Managers at a large environmental remediation site,... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Herding Cats
Analysis is an exercise in judgement under conditions of uncertainty, and the errors in judgment we make, singly, or in groupd, in a day, or through life, are countless. In organizational settings, especially in complicated, complex, or chaotic situations a... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Herding Cats
Every once in awhile a reasonably intelligent No Estimates advocate shows up in a Twitter discussion. Although the poster is filled with logical fallacies, like cherry picking personal anecdotes, inversion of economic concept (focus on value, with no consideration for... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Herding Cats
There was a tweet yesterday ... In casinos, the betting rules ensure the house wins (Eliminates Risk) over time This of course is not true, nor is it how casinos work. Let's start with a brief overview of Monte Carlo... Continue reading
Posted Feb 15, 2018 at Herding Cats
Project managers can't predict the future, but accurately gauging the degree of uncertainty inherent in their projects can help them quickly adapt to it. - "Managing Project Uncertainty," Arnoud De Meyer, Christoph Loch, and Micheal Pich, Sloan Management Review, Winter... Continue reading
Posted Feb 15, 2018 at Herding Cats
In the space of two days I had evolved two plans, wholly distinct, both of which were equally feasible. The point I am trying to bring out is that one does not plan and then try to make circumstances fit... Continue reading
Posted Feb 14, 2018 at Herding Cats
Yesterday's Post Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk and What Is Risk? was a response to a tweeter post conjecturing Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated This, of course, is not factually true. Risk is... Continue reading
Posted Feb 14, 2018 at Herding Cats
Yesterday's Post What Is Risk? was a response to a tweeter post conjecturing Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated This, of course, is not factually true. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes... Continue reading
Posted Feb 13, 2018 at Herding Cats
Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. Uncertainty is a state or condition that involves a deficiency of information and leads to inadequate or incomplete knowledge of understanding. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge... Continue reading
Posted Feb 12, 2018 at Herding Cats
According to ISO 31000, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 a risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives and an effect is a positive or negative deviation from what is expected. This definition recognizes that all of us operate in... Continue reading
Posted Feb 11, 2018 at Herding Cats
Here's an extract from "Chapter 8: Human Behavior and Complexity," Terry Cooke-Davies, in Aspects of Complexity: Managing Projects in a Complex World. Drawing Unsupported Conclusions from Incomplete and Inconclusive Data, it is not only natural but also laudable, to seek... Continue reading
Posted Feb 9, 2018 at Herding Cats
We're working on a white paper "Increasing the Probability of Program Success with Continuous Risk Management," for the Joint Space Cost Council, Scheduler's Forum. During our research, I found a paper "Management Disciplines: Harbingers of Successful Programs," David Acker, Defense... Continue reading
Posted Feb 7, 2018 at Herding Cats
I was thinking of my patients, and how the worst moment for them was when they discovered they were master of their own fate. It was not a matter of bad or good luck. When they could no longer blame... Continue reading
Posted Feb 6, 2018 at Herding Cats
There always talk about Focus on Value. But that does that mean? What are the units of measure of Value? What does it Cost to deliver that Value? When will that Value be delivered? When is that Value Needed to... Continue reading
Posted Feb 5, 2018 at Herding Cats
From "Key Success Drivers for Large High-Technology Projects: Prediction and Practice," Phil Crosby (CSIRO, Australia) in Management Science, Logistics, and Operations Research, John Wang. Their rankings and percentage impact on project success Project management (PM) control & execution systems in... Continue reading
Posted Feb 3, 2018 at Herding Cats
Most opinions are actually attitudes. If you're going to have an opinion, make it an informed opinion. One based on principles, and the resulting processes and practices that can be tested outside personal anecdotes. One based actual facts. Related articles... Continue reading
Posted Feb 1, 2018 at Herding Cats
There are thousands of ways to fail ... most have not been explored — Dr. Steve Jolly, IEEE Fourth International Conference of System of Systems Engineering in “System of Systems in Space Exploration: Is Software Broken?”, Steve Jolly, Albuquerque, New... Continue reading
Posted Jan 31, 2018 at Herding Cats
There's a popular notion in Agile that says Focus on Value. The principles of microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty mandates you make estimates of how to achieve that Value in terms of cost and schedule, those... Continue reading
Posted Jan 29, 2018 at Herding Cats
When you use a technology term to describe a customer value you've lost the customer. And you've made 1000 assumptions without knowing! Without a domain and context, this statement has no meaning. Let's say we use a technical term like... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2018 at Herding Cats
I meant the "shinny" objectives as "we're chasing the latest objective of the project." I see know it's confusing. What did you see in that column. We've used this chart for several years 😈
Toggle Commented Jan 26, 2018 on Shinny Objectives at Herding Cats
1 reply
Ignorance is always correctable. But what shall we do if we take ignorance to be knowledge? - Neil Postman, Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business, Viking Penguin Inc, 1985, p. 108. Continue reading
Posted Jan 26, 2018 at Herding Cats
Mike Cohn's letter today speaks about distractions from the agreed upon path. About bosses that can't stick to the plan, that change their mind when a new idea comes into their head. Mike suggests: ... you need to make sure... Continue reading
Posted Jan 25, 2018 at Herding Cats
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act — attributed to George Orwell, opening line in Icarus Continue reading
Posted Jan 24, 2018 at Herding Cats
The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of... Continue reading
Posted Jan 23, 2018 at Herding Cats
Strategy is a much overused, misused, and abused word. It's tossed around by those who are unfamiliar with Strategy Making roles in businesses. Strategy is creating fit among a company's activities. The success of a strategy depends on doing many... Continue reading
Posted Jan 22, 2018 at Herding Cats