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Not enough! Bentz BEVs sucks.
The most important news is that Model 3 to the surprise of many analysts actually seems on track for volume production this year (5000 per week is 20,000 Model 3 per month or more BEVs than most of the old auto industry producers can sell in a year on all of their BEVs combined). That Tesla has been making pilot production since early February of Model 3 for crash testing is a very good sign. They do it in a part of the Fremont factory called Area 51! I also noted Tesla shipped 98Mwh of energy storage in Q4 or 98,000kwh. They made 131 million USD in revenue on that up from just 11.5 million USD a year ago. The growth is a fantastic over 1000% in one year and Tesla also got a very good price for it in terms of kwh. More precisely 1337 USD per kwh. I guess Tesla is making much money selling the associated power electronics. The growth in Q4 is impressive as they had not begun battery production at the Giga factory in Q4 and barely begun production of their much improved powerwall 2 and powerpack 2. Looking forward to follow the growth ahead in Tesla’s energy storage business segment. More interesting news is that Tesla is expanding their car insurance business. Tesla knows better than any the risk of their cars breaking or crashing so they should do their insurance as well. This also gives them an incentive to decrease such expenses by making better cars and a better autopilot so they can offer cheaper insurance.
The intentions of the old auto industry are quite clear. They want to make more money selling cheaper more polluting cars and they will knowingly kill more people doing so. Their talk about sustainability is just talk or fake marketing to make people feel better while they keep pursuing a whole different agenda. The facts are that Toyota made less than 1000 zero pollution FCV vehicles in 2016. VW made less than 17,000 BEVs, Ford and GM each made less than 15,000 BEVs and Chrysler made less than 10,000 BEVs. For comparison Tesla made 75,000 BEVs. The Nissan/Renault alliance made nearly 100,000 BEVs. I have lots of praise for the Trump administration in other regards but his pick of a known more-pollution-lobbyist to head the EPA that is supposed to protect the society from the most perverse desires of businesses with no moral sense is a catastrophe for the USA and the American people. They will pay the price with sharp increases in premature death and diseases caused by more pollution from coming generations of gassers and diesels cars. We need companies like Tesla more than ever to save this planet from self-destruction.
Harvey it will come with a heat pump that cost extra but that will prevent poor MPGe during very cold weather. Also I would call the previous 80 mile range e-Golf very limited. This one has 125 miles during normal driving in normal weather this is limited rage not very limited. The Bolt with 238 miles rage is good range that will work for most people. BEVs don’t need as much range as gasser because you can plug them in every night if you have a plug in your garage. Gassers typically get 350 miles range but you don’t see people filling them up every night to be sure they got 350 miles range in their tank. But VW still need to do a better job. They should make a brand only for BEVs with cars that are built to be BEVs and nothing else so they can be optimized for that without any compromises to accommodate a gasser engine in another version. Make them all driverless. Start selling them in volume like 300,000 per year by 2020 at the latest. When Tesla Network launches to the public and enable minute by minute summons of driverless Tesla cars those 125 miles BEVs from the old automakers will start to sell well because people could buy them and hire a Tesla whenever they need more luggage and more range.
It is not the battery cells that are preventing BEVs for sale today from being charged in 5 to 10 minutes. The problem is to make the power electronics the DC to DC converter efficient and small enough and inexpensive enough to handle the heat generated from charging at 350,000 watt or even 500,000 watt in a light duty car. Tesla and the old auto-industry will be ready to mass produce the needed 400,000 watt DC to DC power converters by 2020. Problem solved. At that time BEVs will also be fully driverless so they can start to compete on price per mile with any gasser out there.
The Ioniq, the Bolt and the new 35kwh e-Golf are all a big step forward for the old automakers. They have much more range and power than the original 24kwh Leaf and also the current 30kwh Leaf. However, they need to make more progress fast and it could be done by making a dedicated BEV only brand with cars build to be BEVs and not refitted from a gasser chassis. They also need to make BEVs in high volume. GM making 30,000 Bolts per year means much higher cost than Tesla making 300,000 Model 3 per year. Model 3 only starts at 35,000 USD and even in this basis configuration it will be a much more desirable car than the Bolt that starts at 37,500 USD. However, the demand for BEVs will be larger than Tesla’s supply so there will be a market for the BEVs by the old automakers that can deliver immediately. It is sad to see that the old automakers do not take BEVs more serious when it is obvious that there is a very large market for well made BEVs like those Tesla are making.
This car sucks. The range is the main problem but also too little power. It will be boring to drive and the range is impractical. Why even bother if all you can show is this? A desirable BEV needs a 50kwh battery or more and soon it will also need to be fully self-driving so it can deal effectively with price, range and long-charge time. The old auto industry needs to get focused on BEVs that will be in high demand and not producing more BEV abominations.
The long-term solution to this problem is to eliminate all kinds of air pollution. We need to speed up the transition to zero pollution technology. Start by banning production of light duty diesel vehicles and ban all new coal power plants and also ban any life extending work on existing coal power plants. We could do that immediately without much economic pain apart from some auto industry workers that will temporarily lose their job until they can be rehired for making BEVs and gassers.
Tesla will build 4 supercharger stations in Ireland during 2017. See https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/supercharger
Mahonj the old car industry will launch BEVs with 360kw in 2020 based on the 800v architecture. I guess Tesla will trump that in due time. So 480kw charging is coming for ordinary BEVs.
Accounting for losses in generating and transmitting electricity would be equally relevant for BEVs or FCV so including them does not change the fact that FCVs need to spend four times as much energy to drive a mile than BEVs.
The charging infrastructure will cost lees the more power you can use to charge a car. Tesla will increase their current supercharging rates of 120k watt to either 360k watt or 480k watt in their next generation supercharger stations and next generation BEVs using 800 or 1200 volt drive trains. That would reduce charging time to 10 min for 200 miles of driving and it would mean 3 to 4 times as many cars can be fully charged by the same supercharger station. The efficiency of wired charging is also better. Autonomous BEV taxis will need to charge efficiently and fast to save money and to be more available for revenue making driving. This is why they will not use wireless chargers. Wireless chargers could have a market for home charging by disabled people who have a hard time plugging in otherwise not IMO.
Super nice to see the BEV Ioniq get an EPA-estimated 136 MPGe rating. This is twice the efficiency of any FCV and when you also consider that electrolysis and compression of hydrogen leads to another 50% loss of energy this BEV proves that BEVs are running four times as efficient as possible for any FCV. That anyone continues to believe there is a future for FCV that uses four times more energy to drive a mile is beyond me. The Ioniq has more range and a lower price than the 30kwh leaf and it looks better IMO. It should sell well. When Tesla starts its Tesla Network with autonomous and nearly instant hailing of their driverless cars in late 2018 a family could go zero pollution by buying one or two Ioniq and using the Tesla Network for any additional transportation such as long range trips with lots of luggage. The Ioniq uses 28kwh to go 124 miles or 0.226kwh per mile. I expect the Model 3 to do slightly better because it is more aerodynamic (0.21 cd). If the Model 3 can do one mile using only 0.22kwh a 50kwh Model 3 will have 227 miles range and a 70kwh Model 3 (Tesla is testing a 70kwh dual drive version of Model 3 so that is going to be their top version) will therefore be able to do 318 miles. Tesla may choose to make all of their Model 3 with a 70kwh battery so that customers that order the 50kwh version can upgrade to 70kwh using just a software enabler. If Tesla has only 200 USD of cost per marginal kwh of battery the additional 20kwh would only cost Tesla 4000 USD. That would mean Model 3 sold for only 35,000 USD as the 50kwh versions with no autopilot will have very low gross margin. However, most people would upgrade to autopilot and eventually to 70kwh so that over time the gross margin would go up. The reselling price would also be higher for a car that can be upgraded to 70kwh and full autopilot by the push of a button. I think Tesla should make an even smaller and less expensive car than the Model 3 (like a tandem two seater) because there will be a market for such cars when you can always hire a self driving taxi to take you long-distance with lots of luggage. And I believe many people would still like a car that they do not share with others so they can leave personal stuff in it like sun glasses, kids’ toys, a gun, cash, etc.
Good to see an article on rocket engines here at GCC. It should really be more about transportation and not just transportation on wheels. There is another interesting comparison to be made and that is with the forthcoming Raptor rocket engine developed for the Interplanetary Spaceship by SpaceX. That engine will be a revolution if it can be made to work reliably (it has been test fired and it did not explode which is very promising). Raptor is no larger than the current Merlin engine used in falcon 9. However, it will have a lot more trust. The Merlin engine delivers 914 kN in space (and 845 kN at atmospheric pressure) and the Raptor engine delivers 3,285 kN in space and also uses an inexpensive and much cleaner burning fuel namely LNG instead of the highly polluting kerosene that Merlin uses. The number one technical challenge with the Raptor engine is that it operates at a chamber pressure at 4,400 psi witch is insanely high but it also makes the engine extremely efficient. For comparison Merlin’s chamber pressure is 982 psi. LNG is the ideal rocket fuel for our solar system as it can be made industrially at many locations in our solar system (if it is not already there to be mined/drilled) so that interplanetary travel becomes possible. Kerosene is too difficult to make in space so that is a show stopper. I am not sure alcohol can be made easily in space like LNG and hydrogen so the future of alcohol as a rocket fuel may not be good. If SpaceX makes a very reliable Raptor engine I think most of the space industry will follow and focus on LNG powered rocket engines.
@Harvey the first day pilots are not required the airliners will get rid of them and start buying airplanes without a cockpit for pilots. You can save the money spend on pilots and also load more paying passengers into the airplanes. About 500,000 Model S, X and 3 will all be able to drive themselves on most roads in Q1, 2018 and by Q4, 2018 Tesla will have collected enough data to prove their AI pilot is much safer than humans and that is what will get Tesla the official permission to operate their cars on the Tesla Network without any human drivers in them. I also expect Tesla to start selling cars without human controls no later than Q1, 2019. They could cost as much as 4000 USD less per car when compared to the same car with human controls in them.
Tesla is working on a fully driverless heavy duty semi. I expect the first version to include a cabin for a human driver as that is needed to train the first AI drivers on how to drive a heavy duty semi. Once Tesla has made that work and proven that its AI driver is safer than a human driver all subsequent semis will be made without any cabin for a human driver. That will make them hugely cost efficient to the alternatives and that will be the start of a transportation revolution with fully driverless heavy duty BEVs replacing human driven diesel polluters. Better batteries are not needed for this to happen we just need the driverless tech ASAP.
@Harvey there is another option you have in a few years and before 2020. Buy two short range BEVs at 25,000 USD each with 120 miles range and a 30kwh battery. At that price they will not be fully self-driving so you need plugs in your parking lot. Then when you need to go longer with more stuff (like many suitcases) use the Tesla Network to hail a Tesla Model X or S to arrive at you front door within 5 min of hailing it. The Model S100 already has 335 miles range EPA and if you need to go longer nonstop there will be another fully charged Model S waiting for you after 300 miles of driving. You will not see the cars with 130kwh in many BEVs. There will not be a big market for them when you have driverless cars that can take you anywhere for as long as you want without delay. I think most people will probably buy one fully self-driving BEV that is short range like 120 miles and cost about 30,000 USD. For all additional driving needs they just hail a self-driving taxi at the Tesla Network or another automaker’s car hailing network.
LOL 99.9% of all roads have at least 100 cars passing every 24 hour. So if just 1 in a 1000 car is equipped with road mapping tech like all Tesla’s cars since 2013 you will have a new updated map every 10 day on 99.9% of all roads. Tesla has already mapped the world where it sells its cars hundreds of times. Furthermore, most people drive along the same roads all the time. If no other car has driven on your road before and it is the first time you drive your Tesla on that road the autopilot will not engage. However, the next time you drive on that road the autopilot can engage because now it has a map to help navigate that road like if no line markers are visible. My point is that even if you were the only car in the world with crowd mapping tech you only need to drive through once to make a map. Scale matters almost not at all. Crowd sourcing of maps will be very useful even without any scale.
The way I see it BEVs are currently facing three issues: 1) high price, 2) short range, and 3) long charge time. All three issues will be solved with autonomous taxi/car sharing services by 2018 by Tesla and by 2021 by everyone else. After that BEVs will take over as fast as the auto companies can humanly possibly build the needed battery factories. We need about 100 Tesla sized battery factories costing as little as 500 billion USD in all to abandon all production of combustion engines. This is very doable. Definitely so in 15 years. Toyota has done well making reliable cars but Tesla will do better with their BEVs. BEVs are much simpler and easier to make highly reliable and durable than gassers.
LOL Tesla uses zero tech developed by Toyotas hybrids.
The data shows hybrids are at a dead end. There is zero growth in Japan since 2012. There is negative growth in USA since 2013. Only Europe and Others is growing but from a very low level. Plug-ins look to outsell hybrids in the US by 2018. Tesla’s Model 3 will make that happen. The problem with hybrids is that with the emergence of BEVs they are no longer the greenest cars available. So people looking to do no environmental harm when they buy their next car will buy a BEV and not a hybrid if they can afford it. And everybody can afford BEVs once they get fully autonomous and are operated like taxis driving 100,000 miles per year.
Carl the numbers you give are also the wrong ones. As you say they are emissions from well-to-pump meaning they do not include emission from the diesel car or gasser itself. To compare that with emissions from power production for zero emission BEVs is like comparing apples with bananas. I dig a little more into the 6kwh used for making one gallon of gasoline. It is the total energy used not just electricity used as I admit I first thought when I saw a statement by Musk about it. This is for ordinary refinery of sweet crude oil. If you consider Canadian Tar sand oil you need the energy of one barrel of oil to make one barrel of gasoline. That means about 37 kwh used to make one gallon of gasoline from Tar sand! https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20130219/oil-sands-mining-tar-sands-alberta-canada-energy-return-on-investment-eroi-natural-gas-in-situ-dilbit-bitumen Northern USA will mostly use Tar sand gasoline so really any BEVs you can sell there will be enormously beneficial for the environment. @SJC true it is only 1% of new sales today that are plug-ins. However, it started in December 2010. We only had 6 full years with plug-ins. See http://www.ev-volumes.com/ Remember all great things have small beginnings. BEVs will eventually take over 100%. They grow at 50% per year and they will soon get the upper hand with autonomous driving that will make BEVs cost superior to gassers in a taxi driving/sharing use scenario and also solve the problem with range and long charging time as you can get a new fully charged driverless taxi if the first one you ride is running out of electrons. The autonomous ability will make BEV growth go much higher. By 2027 all new cars made will be fully driverless. Not all will be BEVs but every car maker that want to survive at that time will invest every penny they have in making more BEVs as this is where the new demand and money is in 2027. Gassers will be a rapidly dying industry.
Carl you still don’t get it. Even if all vehicles in the US was converted to BEVs they would consume zero net kwhs as what they consume is equal to what they save in electricity used for making gasoline and diesel that will no longer be needed. So you have zero increase in CO2, NOx etc from using BEVs regardless of how dirty the grid is. However, you do get a zero emission vehicle that replaces a highly polluting gasser or diesel. You can also have it this way. If all vehicles in the US were replaced with BEVs you would not need to add any new power capacity as you would save enough electric power from not having to make any diesel and gasoline to power the entire new fleet of BEVs. Off cause changing the society to BEVs only would save us from all of the pollution that happens when vehicles burn 10 million barrels of gasoline and 4 million barrels of diesel every day in the US.
Even with 50% coal power BEV pollute much less indirectly than gassers. And it gets worse for gassers because you need to spend about 6kwh to make one gallon of gas. It is not just the oil. The average car gets about 24 miles per gallon. The Model 3 will be able to drive 24 miles on 6kwh so the gas it saves means its contribution to net electricity demand is zero! https://longtailpipe.com/ebooks/green-transportation-guide-buying-owning-charging-plug-in-vehicles-of-all-kinds/gasoline-electricity-and-the-energy-to-move-transportation-systems/the-6-kwh-electricity-to-refine-gasoline-would-drive-an-electric-car-the-same-distance-as-a-gasser/ But I agree it is odd to see the old auto industry on a tour to promote BEVs in places that are the least interested in BEVs and they also do not offer any attractive BEVs. That tour will sell zero BEVs. The only thing they do with dedication is to influence the lawmakers so that they can pollute more and save costs. Their “clean” diesel and going green campaigns are just an attempt to lie themselves to a better image.