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The arrival of fully self-driving BEVs will change everything. That will give the BEVs the edge they need to outcompete gassers as fast as the world can built the 100 gigafactories to go all BEVs in the global autoindustry.
We need this pipeline and many others to come. Transporting oil using rail and truck is the far more polluting/energy intensive alternative. The cost of transporting 1 barrel of oil 1000 miles is about 3 USD with a pipeline, 7 USD with rail and 15 USD with trucks. Most of that cost increase is for burning diesel. So we should use pipelines that are cheaper and pollute less. Tar sand is stone dead at 50 USD per barrel. No new project will be build. However, shale oil is booming at 50 USD per barrel. The shale revolution is bigger than most people understand. It will make the US an oil net exporting nation before 2020. We need that to happen for the free world to stop buying oil from islamofascist countries. The clash of civilizations is happening and it is accelerating. We need to prepare for more war because it is coming. The biggest change will happen with self-driving cars that will make BEVs the only kind of vehicles in demand with gassers declining because they cost more to operate per taxi mile. Can’t wait for that to happen.
Musk did a lot of tweeting last night about the Model 3 and the solar roof that they will take orders from in late April and start delivering in the summer. Musk tweeted a low resolution video of their first release candidate made by production equipment. It looked exactly like previous models apart perhaps from a sharper front end. Musk said it will feature one screen only for everything infotainment, autopilot, speed etc. So no fancy head up display. The door handles also look more conventional in the video. I do not think they are electric. Herman the battery will be new for model 3. It will use the new battery packing tech that was introduced in Model X and S with the 100kwh pack. That battery packing tech will also soon replace Tesla’s 60 to 75kwh packs with my guess a 65 to 80 kwh pack for model s and x. Model s and x still use the 18650 cell in their pack but model 3 will use the new 2170 cell made at the giga factory. That cell is different in form factor and cell chemistry from the 18650 cell. The cell is produced already at the gigafactory for the powerwall 2 and the powerpack 2. Musk said that the 2170 will also go into the model s and x but not before the start of 2018. The cell is a huge step up from the 18650 with a 30% increase in wh/kg but Musk has also said that 100kwh is enough for the model s that get 335 miles range. So when the 100kwh pack comes with 2170 cells it will just be used to cut weight and cost of that pack. Musk said the Model 3 will launch like Model S with RWD first and then 9 months later with a dual engine drive and 3 months later with a performance model. He even said the top battery pack for model 3 is 75kwh. I am sure the entry battery pack is a 55kwh and that the model 3 will do 4 miles per kwh so 220 miles range for Model 3 55 and 300 miles for Model 3 75. Musk also said that the fastest Tesla will still be the Model S until they make a new roadster. The performance version of model 3 will not beat the 2.5 sec to 60mph than model s manages. Musk has also said that Tesla’s 30,000 employees will get ahead of everybody when ordering the Model 3 so the first few thousands will be for Tesla employees.
It is going to fail because they are not fully self-driving. By 2020 the Tesla Network could do all zero emission taxi driving in London for a fraction of the price per kilometer than this London Taxi.
Incremental changes will not save this planet from a global warming mass extinction event that will wipe out most life on this planet. It is already happening with species going extinct a 1000 times faster than in the preindustrial era. We need transformative change to completely end the burning of fossil fuels. And we need it fast. The fastest way to make a transformational change to a fossil fee future is to embrace self-driving vehicles. Self-driving cars doing 100,000 miles per year instead of 15,000 miles per year will make BEVs cheaper than gasser all cost considered. That will cause BEVs to take over. With a mass market for BEVs the cost and quality of batteries will improve even faster and that will lead batteries to take over in shipping and aviation as well. Also renewable energy can be deployed on a massive scale when their intermittencies can be dealt with effectively using cheaper and more durable batteries. The most affordable way to deal with renewable intermittency is a combination of battery backup, long-distance transmission lines, over capacity (install more solar and wind than needed average in order to have enough energy under unfavorable weather conditions) and variable electricity prices that give consumers an incentive to adjust their consumption to the demand. Steel and aluminum production should happen only during spring and summer where electricity is cheap because of overproduction of solar power.
Or maybe the truth is even direr. The old automakers can’t change because they are ruled by people who can’t change. This may be the more plausible explanation and it is quite often the explanation for why companies fail. Think about it all companies that are created will eventually die. Very few companies are over 50 years old and almost none over 100 years. I expect very few of today’s car companies to be around by 2035. But there will be many new auto companies like Tesla and perhaps Lucid and who knows maybe Apple, Samsung and Intel and Nvidia.
No it does not add up. They have been at it for 20 years with natural gas vehicles and noting meaningful has happened. Nothing at all. What part of less than 15,000 barrels per day in oil equivalents and diesel and gasoline is 13 million barrels per day in the US did you not get?
Natural gas as a vehicle fuel does not matter at all. It is less than 15,000 barrels per day in oil equivalents. For comparison, diesel and gasoline is 13 million barrels per day in the US. Problem is that handling gas is too expensive. Maintenance cost of high pressure gas tanks is a show stopper for viable vehicle applications. However, natural gas that is now predominantly produced by shale wells in the US is inexpensive at 3 usd per mBTU compared to 9 USD per mbtu for oil. It will be used more for electricity production in the USA for sure.
Tesla only issue 250 million USD of common stock and Musk will personally buy 10% of that. I am looking forward to see Tesla launch their on-demand driverless Taxi service Tesla Network sometime in 2018. Profits from service is all Tesla need to finance multi-billion USD construction of new Giga factories and thousands of new service centers and supercharger stations globally while at the same time have positive net earnings.
The old auto-industry show little interest in making attractive BEVs that are not destroying life for future generations. However, new companies like Lucid and Tesla will change the world for the better eventually. The price/spec offering from Lucid is definitely competitive with other similar priced gasser offerings. However, Lucid have not yet started to build their factory. They believe they can build it from scratch and start making this car by the end of 2018. That sounds unrealistic in my ears. They have found the location (Casa Grande, Arizona, USA) for the factory but it is just a piece of dirt right now. It will take 3 years. Lucidmotors are also only 300 people right now. I think they should move on as fast as they can but they need a lot of money to grow. Just like Tesla. Auto making is a capital intensive industry. To make 1 million BEVs per year you need to invest something like 20 billion USD in factories. Apple may buy Lucid if they can get their production started by 2019 and make 15,000 units for 2020. Smartphones is no longer a growth business. They will start to drop in price soon because they don’t need to get much better for most people. That is a problem for Apple and other tech companies like Samsung. The big growth opportunities are driverless BEVs, renewable energy and grid storage.
@Mahonj I think Intel is right about going into the self-driving vehicle business. They should because in 20 years there will be over a billion vehicles on the road with full self-drive and a monster computer as their AI brain and Intel could supply these cpus. But the price they pay for mobileye is insane. Intel could have poached talent from all over the world by paying higher wages and got what Mobileye has for a fraction of the 15 billion USD. It would take more time though. Also I really believe that self-driving tech and software in particular is so strategically important for any auto maker that they will all want to do it all by themselves as soon as possible. Tesla dropped Mobileye when they could do the camera vision themselves and Tesla is preparing to make their own cpus so they will eventually not need Nvidia or anyone else for that either. Other car makers will do the same. They start by buying from the best external suppliers like mobileye and Nvidia and when they are ready to do it themselves they do that because this is how to differentiate their products and gain a competitive edge. There is a lot of stuff that can be done differently or better with self-driving software. For instance, better software could give better user experience and also better accident statistics but also better fuel economy and less maintenance cost simply by improving algorithms. This is how you will be able to gain market share and make more profits.
Alaska needs it badly for their economy. The Alaska pipeline is in danger of being closed because of declining oil production.
The ability of cars to drive without any human involvement is what is needed for BEVs to quickly triumphs over cars with combustion engines. The economics is simple. BEVs will always cost more upfront than gassers because of the expensive battery. However, BEVs cost much less to drive per mile than gassers because of their low fuel costs, their lower maintenance requirements and their longer durability. So the trick to make BEVs less expensive to drive than gassers is to put as many miles on the BEV as possible. We need to drive the BEVs 24/7 or at least 50k miles per year and we can only achieve that with fully self-driving tech operating BEVs as on-demand taxi services. Self-driving tech also solves the BEV’s range issue and charging availability issue because you can always travel on in a new a fully charged BEV and the BEV can drive out and charge itself at night. BEVs could probably succeed without self-driving tech but it would take many more decades to happen because battery development is a slow process that take decades to yield significant improvement. With fully self-driving tech being rolled out currently at Tesla and subsequently at the old automakers by 2020/2021 BEVs will spread as fast as it is humanly possible to make the 100 Tesla sized giga battery factories that the world need to go all BEVs in the auto industry. I estimate these giga factories could all be built before 2030. After that gassers will no longer be in production apart from spare parts for old gassers.
We need a global ban on the production of the highly pollution lead acid batteries. There are plenty of non-toxic alternatives available like Toshiba’s lithium batteries but also super capacitators. Start by banning the use of lead acid batteries in luxury cars and follow up with banning lead acid batteries in successively less expensive cars. It is sickening that we live in a world that cares so little about humans and their environment. We need clean water, soil and air to live good and healthy lives. Pollution should not be accepted and those creating it should be held accountable and severely punished. If I should blame Tesla for one thing it is that they are still using a small lead acid battery in their cars. They need to fix that ASAP.
Low electricity prices made by much lower cost for future renewable solar and wind power will not change the fact that hydrogen for FCV will be at least 4 times more expensive than electricity for BEVs as measured per mile driven because BEVs are 4 times as efficient as FCV per mile driven when the loss of electrolysis and compression is also included as it should. Electrolyzers are not getting more efficient. The best platinum based electrolyzers that are very expensive to make has 70% efficiency and then you need compression that is also 70% efficient so you lose 50% (=.7*.7). Another 55% is lost in the FCV so you end up with about 22.5% total efficiency for the FCV. BEVs are 90% efficient or four times better than FCV to convert a kwh into miles driven. However, it gets worse because there is not enough platinum on the planet to deploy high efficiency platinum FCV and high efficiency platinum electrolyzers in scale. So a future based on hydrogen electolysers and FCV must use less efficient non-platinum based alternatives. And it gets worse because BEVs last much longer and are less costly to maintain than FCV and their needed electrolyser and compressor infrastructure. And it gets worse because FCV cost more to make than BEVs. And it gets worse because BEVs are getting the ability to charge at 350 kw before 2020 meaning only 10 minutes is needed to charge 50kwh or enough to go 200 miles in a BEV. They also get fully driverless before 2020 so they can drive out at night and charge themselves if you do not live at a place where charging is available at where you park. And it get worse because with driverless BEVs people can just buy a super affordable small BEV that is short range and instantly hail a large long range BEV when they need such a vehicle. This is the future. Ownership of super affordable short range BEVs combined with on-demand hailing of BEV for more demanding use cases. FCV is a scam by the old auto-industry to pretend that they care about making sustainable vehicles for the future. FCV will never happen apart for some staged small scale sales and concept vehicles to keep the believers happy and hopeful. You are being deceived Harvey and so is Davemart.
As always more wishful thinking and fuel cell BS from davemart. Norway is the country in the world with the coldest climate and yet in that country BEVs and PHEVs represent over 33% of new car sales. If BEVs had serious issues with cold weather I doubt they would sell any in Norway. Batteries could still have an issue with seriously hot weather like in the UAE that FCV may not have. However, even here Tesla has started to sell their BEVs so I guess Tesla think that extremely hot weather is doable also for their BEVs. We will see. SJC let me put it this way then. I believe the chance that retail electricity cost will drop 50% to 6 cents per kwh (average pricing) during the next 20 years is much higher than the chance of retail hydrogen cost dropping 50% to 5 USD per kg. Do I believe that hydrogen will never be price competitive with electricity as transportation fuel? Absolutely yes.
which in 2013 became the world’s first mass-produced hydrogen-powered vehicle, and is currently on sale in 17 countries around the world .... selling about 10 per year in each country. WOW!
ECI I am not sure how you got your numbers. I use 72 miles per kg H2 EPA rated for the Honda clarity. So 14 cents per mile (=10 USD/72miles). The Hyundai Ioniq BEV get 4 miles per kwh EPA rated and assuming 12 cents/kwh we get 3 cents per mile for the BEV. Some can get night prices for electricity as low as 6 cents/kwh so only 1.5 cents per mile in that case for the BEV. I expect the Model 3 will also get about 4 miles per kwh EPA rated. We will see.
No Harvey H2 will not drop 50%. This is what it cost. Handling is more costly for hydrogen than making it. Gasoline will not drop 50% either. Nor will electricity retail drop from its current price of 12 cents/kwh. Hydrogen is not a new thing. It has been around for decades and commercially available. There is no tech invention that can make it significantly cheaper.
There are a lot of specialty vehicles makers (military and utility vehicles) that will need a flexible solution as this from KOKAM in order to offer BEV solutions instead of their diesel solutions. It will be too costly for these low volume manufactures to develop their own battery packs.
You are quite right Davemart there are further inefficiencies to be accounted for with regard to hydrogen production as the needed electricity for the electrolyzer and compressor may come from a grid where say 45% of the fossil energy to make electricity is lost. The same can be said about BEV charging so no need to speculate about what might be lost in the grid that both FCV and BEVs need for their fuel. However, it is apparently enough to confuse you.
US oil and gas drilling is now 80% fracking/horizontal drilling and the productivity of these wells have gone up 500% since 2011. So it does not matter that it is, say, 50% more expensive to make a state of the art fracked well today. It is still far more cost effective than it was in 2011. This is was oil and gas fracking is booming again despite low oil prices of 50-55 USD per barrel. The evidence can be studied here: shows 63% annual growth in number of horizontal drilling rigs. That is a boom. And here shows the 500% growth in productivity for nearly all rigs at the shale plays numbers in pdf files. I am all for going fully electric and renewable and to build the 100 Tesla sized giga factories that can replace gassers and diesels on a global scale. However, it will take decades to get rid of the global fleet of nearly 2 billion combustion vehicles so meanwhile we need to drill at full speed. We need to prepare for increasing wars between the free world and the part of the world that does not believe in freedom or science. Our cultural differences are growing all the time (increasing terrorism against us is evidence of that) and one way to prepare for this escalating war is by banning import of energy from all of our cultural adversaries. Another is to stop accepting immigrants from countries that are not fully democratic and science based. If people are unhappy with where they live they should do something about it in the country they were born in. We could help them with that in the form of money and weapons if their agenda is the same as ours: democracy, freedom and science as the foundation for knowledge.
We need to ban sulfat in all gasoline and diesel. It can be removed but it will make the gas more expensive. Globally 7 million people are killed prematurely by air pollution each year from the coal, oil and gas. This is totally unacceptable and we need to stop this ASAP. Ban new coal power plants and ban using diesel vehicles inside cities.
Tesla can include all the needed sensors without being noticeable. This monster from Toyota is many years from a real world self driving car. Stage 1 is to have OTA updates of all critical auto systems only Tesla can do that since 2013. Stage 2 is to include all needed hardware for self driving vehicles in real world vehicles only Tesla does that. Stage 3 is to gradually update the software that enable the car to become fully self-driving in all situations at risk at least 50% below the risk of human drivers. Only Tesla is doing that currently. Stage 4 is to gather enough data to be permitted to operate driverless cars without humans in them so they can function as on-demand taxis. Stage 5 is to make cars that does not have human controls in order to make them cheaper and sellable to people without a driver lisence.
Chargepoint would not have developed their 400kw automotive charge unless they knew that vehicles are under development that can charge at that speed. 400kw is 50kwh in 7 min and 30 sec. or enough to go 180 miles in a normal sized BEV like the Bolt or the Model 3. For the old automakers Chargepoint seems to be one of the fastest ways to get access to a large charging infrastructure for their own BEVs. Driverless BEV taxis are the future for the automotive industry and most of those will use public superchargers to charge not private homes as they may be operated mostly as fleets owned by private people or corporations. An infrastructure of 400kw chargers will be less costly to build than one or 5kw chargers as you will need 80 times as many 5kw charges to do the work of one 400kw charger. I expect Tesla’s next supercharger stations to be fully autonomous and at about 400kw for each charger.