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Henrik
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Computer simulations have come a long way. For example, nuclear weapons do no longer need to be test blown to see if they still work. That can be simulated with extreme accuracy today. We need to make the same kind of simulations for fusion reactor designs. Develop the reactor on “paper” and then computer simulate it to see if it works. Make modifications if it does not work and simulate again. When it works in the simulation estimate how much it will cost to build. If it costs too much develop it further and make new simulations and adjustments. When we finally have something that works in the simulation and that is estimated to be economic then build it. Progress in computing power is what is making self-driving cars possible now. We could not build a self driving car just a few years back. Just a few years back the needed computer for the self-driving car would have been too big and consumed too much power to be used in a car. Now Tesla can have a shoebox sized super computer that can do 24 Teraflops using just 250 watt. Nuclear fusion is much more computing intensive. However, in 10 years we will have the computational power that it takes to make an economic and functioning design before we build it in the real world. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/01/20150106-nvidia-1.html#more
If we keep burning fossil fuels the CO2 that it is releases will lead to a drastically warmer planet that will kill off most species that we know. And it will all happen within the next 100 years. This is just a scientific fact noting Marxist about that. What is Marxist is the US states that prevents Tesla from selling it cars through its own dealers. That is a direct attach on the right to do healthy business freely in an otherwise capitalist economy.
Harvey the 150mpge PHEV does not exist. The best is BMW i3 at 117 mpge in pure electric mode and 39 mpg in gasser mode. http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=alts&year1=2016&year2=2017&vtype=Plug-in+Hybrid&srchtyp=newAfv The best BEV is 2017 Hyundai Ioniq Electric with 136 mpge. http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=alts&path=3&year1=2016&year2=2017&vtype=Electric&srchtyp=newAfv I expect Model 3 will be better than 136 mpge. It will be min 215 miles rage for the 35,000 USD version. However, everybody can afford driving the Model 3 as a taxi on the Tesla Network. No upfront cost there and the range is unlimited as you can get a new model 3 when the first you use is running low on the kwh. Tesla has proven that BEVs are viable. The rest of the industry should stop doing PHEVs and other gassers and just focus on making good self driving BEVs. It is all we need for everything that moves on land.
Michigan will not allow Tesla to sell its cars in Michigan. However, this law will allow Tesla to flood Michigan’s roads with self-driving Tesla taxis on the Tesla Network. When Tesla boots the Tesla Network in 2018 the dealer prohibitions in many US states will matter very little to Tesla’s business success.
I have followed the news about fusion nuclear since elementary school. I am now convinced that better computers is what is needed to both simulate a viable fusion reactor design but also needed to monitor and predict plasma behavior in real time and make adjustments in real time to the magnetic fields so that the plasma stays stable. We have not succeeded in fusion reactors so far because we do not have the needed computer power yet. However, we are getting there fast now. 10 more years or so and we can computer simulate a fusion reactor that will work. At that time Musk or Bezos or another philanthropic multi-billionaire will get into it and build it. Private people are better at getting things done than bureaucratic government organization that may not have a budget after the next election so I think that fusion power will see the day by a private effort rather than a government effort.
Harvey upfront cost will not matter for the 90% of future car users because they will never buy a car but instead hail one when they need one. This is why driverless tech is far more important for the success of BEVs than battery tech. The battery tech is already good enough for driverless BEVs to take over from gassers. Also Harvey I hope you do realize that no PHEV has ever got over 55 MPG when it switch to ICE power. Most do not get better than 40 MPG. They are all polluters and earth destroyers. PHEVs cannot prevent a massive global warming extinction event from happening. They can just postpone it by a few years. We need BEVs to safe most life on this planet.
Harvey try and step back in order to see the larger picture. Using less non-sustainable products, like burning half as much fossil fuel, will only delay the global warming destruction of the planet. It will not stop it from happening. Also that FCV thing Toyota is promoting is a political spin to look good among naïve environmentalist. Toyota has most certainly no intention of ever making FVC in volume because they know it is grossly uneconomic. You are being fooled.
DLS there is no need for an ascetic lifestyle if we only produce sustainable products like Tesla. In that case we can spend as much as we desire without destroying anything. The problem is only solved if the non-sustainable products are removed from the market by sustainability mandates. Using less non-sustainable products, like burning half as much fossil fuel, will only delay the global warming destruction of the planet. It will not stop it from happening. Also biofuels are not sustainable or scalable. They create air pollution but they at least can be made co2 neutral. Also growing biomass in volume requires large natural and bio diverse habitats to be destroyed. This is obviously not sustainable either. Tesla is making it more clear every year that there are feasible alternatives that are cost effective and that does not pollute and that are sustainable. We just need more and bigger Teslas and this planet we be just fine.
I know he is a pollution lunatic and Trump’s worst decision / pick to date. He denies the scientific consensus because he probably believes he got his point of view directly from the almighty divine himself. He risks polarizing the US so much that some states will go for independence. On the other hand, much more pollution will result in more protest and higher demand for Tesla’s solar roof. The less the government do the more many private people will feel they need to do to even it out. Tesla will start sales of their new solar roofs this coming summer. Also if the federal tax benefits for EVs ends is terminated it will only benefit Tesla as they are soon running out of this subsidy that is limited to 200,000 cars per manufacture. Only Tesla’s competitors are getting it on their lousy compliance EVs.
Another planet destroyer from Audi that does not have a single sustainable car for sale. Very unlike Tesla that just got permission to expand their Fremont factory to 9.9 million square feet so that they can make one million sustainable cars annually by 2020. It will become the world largest auto assembly factory. https://electrek.co/2016/12/08/tesla-fremont-factory-expansion-greenlight/ What is even more impressive is that Tesla will make 1 million vehicles with only 9315 employees. That is over 100 cars per year per employee. Currently Fremont use 6,210 employees to make 100,000 cars per year. However, battery pack production and some power train production will be moved from Fremont to Nevada by 2020.
Trump has a vision about making America great again and who can argue with that. However, the way to do it is to replace oil, gas and coal with renewables and fusion nuclear and to end the use of all unsustainable products like gassers, dirty diesels and fossil fuel power plants. Without such a strategy America will end up like a polluted and backward dump where nobody wants to spend their life. There are a lot of jobs in a sustainability strategy. Tesla has created about 35,000 new and mostly US jobs producing sustainable products and Tesla is growing fast employing about 1000 additional people every month. And Tesla is barely getting started. We need more companies like Tesla on this planet and this is why it is very important to tell the old auto industry that they need to change in a big way because what they currently do and lobby for is morally wrong and is hurting and killing millions of people prematurely every year. Moreover, left uncontrolled the old auto industry’s unsustainable products will cause a massive and extremely dangerous out of control warming of the planet that could raise see levels by as much as 70 meters (216 feet) if both poles melt completely. Not to speak of a nearly complete extinction of all the plants and animals we know today. We are unfortunate on a course to make the entire planet a nearly lifeless wasteland for future generations. To stop that from happening is a case worth fighting for and that is why we need to push every day for the old auto industry to wake up and admit their moral duty to make sustainable products. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map
I hear you on simplification. EPA could do a better job by using sustainability mandates instead of complicated and very costly to monitor regulations on emissions. The goal is 100% sustainable products. So use sustainability mandates starting with 5% of all vehicles sold to be zero emission and growing to 100% of all vehicles sold to be zero emission by 2030. That is most achievable. After that date no more new gasser or dirty diesel engines. Fine non-compliance with 10,000 USD for each car sold in non-compliance and allow trading of compliance credits among automakers so that automakers in over compliance like Tesla can sell their credits to the highest bidder. You can skip all the co2 regulation on that one. Also do it for the electric generation industry. By 2035 all power plants must be 100% emission free or they will have to pay, say 10 cents, per kwh produced that come from non-zero emission plants. EPA will have to maintain its air pollution regulation and tighten it further. Without it we will all die many years prematurely from air pollution like they do in China and India on a massive scale. With the sustainability mandates 100% effective after year 2035 all non sustainable products will be banned out of the market. No more air-pollution and that legislation could go away also with regard to power plants and vehicles. Very simple very cost efficient.
The old auto industry is still behaving the same way. They have not learnt anything. They give a dam about the health of ordinary people and about the habitability of the planet in the future. As long as they can make more money for themselves now to hell with future generations and to hell with current air pollution. Wealthy people can get filters on their houses and escape unhealthy air. They have no empathy. Shame on them.
Hybrid cars are planet destroyers and always will be. They emit the whole spectra of pollutants from air pollutants to green house-gas pollutants. Toyota is not being part of the solution they are only part of the problem unfortunately. Until Toyota start making BEVs in high volume they have nothing to be proud of and only a whole lot of unsustainable products to sell. Shame on them. Making cars that have higher MPG will only extend the time that burning planet destroying fuels is economic. So don’t be fooled by Toyotas propaganda about doing anything good.
Today there is a story about US human life expectancy has started to drop. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38247385 I expect the US obesity epidemic is the cause. All the more reason to promote biking by building shielded bike lanes on every public road. Also make bike purchases tax deductable. The societal benefits for people that bike in terms of better health for everybody far outstrips the cost of making bike lanes and giving tax deductions for buying bikes.
In Denmark electric delivery bikes are very common and used massively by the Danish Postal service. However, I have never seen this design by UPS before. It is quite brilliant. For the typical design in Denmark see https://www.google.dk/search?q=christiania+bikes&biw=1282&bih=860&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjG9q7fmuTQAhWH0xoKHTWcBwQQ_AUICCgB Bikes are overlooked in many countries. In Denmark over 40% of the citicens of Copenhagen get to work every day using a bike and the number is increasing as more bike lanes are build making it safer and faster to use a bike. Copenhagen has effectively eliminated 40% of its air pollution because of bike use and its population get healthier. Other cities could learn from that and start building dedicated and shielded bike lanes on all city roads.
JMartin I agree 3D printing could create a lot of startup with niche cars like sports cars at very high prices. There is always a market for uniqueness. However, 3D printing is not cost effective. A stamping machine can literally make hundreds of body parts per hour that it would take a 3D printer one hour to make just one. I don’t think there is a single mass produced product on the planet that is 3D printed. As I see it 3D printing has revolutionized the prototyping phase by decimating the time it takes to prototype a product and modify it to the final product. E.C.I. I am skeptical that BEVs will ever get cheaper than gassers up front. A battery will always be hundreds of times more expensive to make than a plastic gas tank. I know the BEV engine and transmission is less costly than the gasser’s engine and transmission and there is no need for an exhaust system in the BEV but it is not enough to make up for battery costs. You can get a new 5 seat gasser for 15,000 USD. That will never be possible for a 5 seat BEV. 25,000 USD is the lowest we will ever get to for a 250 miles range, 5 seats BEV without self-driving capability. To many people forget that BEV cost per mile is a function of how many miles you can put on the vehicle during its lifespan. The more miles the less cost per mile for the BEV. This is why driverless tech is so critical for the success of BEVs because it makes it easy to drive a BEV 1 million miles in 10 years and at that usage rate today’s BEVs are already far superior to ICE with regard to costs. Another problem with BEVs today is that there are only two BEVs on the market that are not compliance cars and that is Model S and X. The rest including the new Bolt that can degrade its battery at 40% after only 100,000 miles are all compliance cars. No real effort was made to make a good BEV because the old automakers are still not 100% committed to making BEVs. This will not change until Tesla become a volume thread and starts to make profits. All that will not happen until 2018.
JMartin I read it as camouflaged bragging not complaining. He is happy about it. Most people look forward to software updates as they may contain real improvement besides bug and security fixes.
Well Musk did not give an exact date more a likely estimate that coincided with Christmas. he said 3 weeks at nov. 27 for autopilot 8.1 on both old teslas and the new ones with hardware version 2. see https://electrek.co/2016/11/27/tesla-enhanced-autopilot-release/ Musk will want it out as soon as possible in any case now it just coincide with Christmas.
try here http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/12/20161207-daimler.html
By the way Musk has Tweeted that the new enhanced autopilot will be ready by 24. of December so that the grownups also has a little something to play with the next day.
Davemart at Tesla they have a mantra that all engineers are thought at the start of their work at Tesla and that is “not to let the perfect be the enemy of the better”. If Tesla did like you suggest and that is more old school very little progress would be made in the same order of time. At Tesla they do not have annual or 5 year updates like other car makers. They implement better designs as soon as they are done and tested like 20 revisions per week at the assembly line. This is why Tesla is getting more and more ahead of its competition. The competition is not catching up they are falling more behind. It is tragic and a display of ineptness by the old automakers. They should forget about pride and just copy Tesla all of them because Tesla is the most intelligent leader in all regards.
Mr Jerk what you don’t get yet is that when cars become self-driving (as they will in massive numbers after 2020) the current cost advantage by ICE vehicles over BEVs flips 180 degrees. Self-driving BEVs can take full advantage of their ability to last 1 million miles and also their lower fuel cost over gasses. It matters very little they cost 10,000 USD more to make than the gasser if you can drive them 100,000 miles per year for 10 years as you easily can with a self-driving car. In the beginning self-driving BEVs from Tesla can make 100,000 USD per year (1 USD per mile) driving as taxis on the Tesla Network and Tesla will have 500,000 such cars by the end of 2018. The annual turnover will be 50,000,000,000 USD. I think Tesla should have no problems financing the next ten giga factories from profits made on the Tesla Network if they do not get some competition from other driverless BEVs soon. PS I am pro Trump in many more ways than you can imagine. I only had an issue with his anti free trade and anti global warming rhetoric. However, it seems he will not abandon free trade but replace global trade deals with bilateral trade deals. Fine with me. Also it appears that Trump now has admitted that global warming is manmade and a serious problem. For all I can see it looks like Trump will be a great president and probably better than the previous presidents. Trump is right that USA has not been pushing hard enough to secure US interests. I unlike previous presidents do not believe you can protect democracy by being humane towards your mortal enemies. You need to be ruthless with your external enemies or you will lose. I think Trump can be that and secure our culture and democracy better than any of the previous presidents. He can start by making sure Iran does not get nukes and give them a new deal/offer of the kind that cannot be refused. Bernie who? What I am trying accomplish here by using provocative and insulting rhetoric like Trump is to get everybody’s attention (which seem to work as I get more comments than anyone else here at GCC) and hopefully get some of you to start thinking maybe he has a point. Yoatmon of cause my fault.