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It is just another planet destroyer with a combustion engine from VW. Nor does it have the hardware for fully autonomous driving so it is completely obsolete at arrival. VW needs to step it up and make autonomous BEVs that do not destroy the planet and that cost less per mile when operated as an autonomous taxi service. Shame on VW for calling this planet destroyer a green car. This is deceptive marketing which is illegal. Someone must sue VW for that using a class action for all the VW customers that are fooled to believe they are buying a car that is good for the environment and is sustainable. Companies that sell cars with combustion engines most be forced to tell the consumers that their car will contribute to global warming, the decimation of species on the planet and health problems that will lead to premature death for both people and animals.
Sorry I may have mis-heard the number of miles per day currently on Tesla autopilot. Teslarati report 1.5 million miles per day.
Back in April 2016 Musk reported 2 billion Tesla miles and the last billion in just 12 month. At that time only 50 million miles on autopilot. In a shareholder conference call yesterday I believe Musk said that people on Tesla Autopilot now do 500,000 miles per day. It will explode when the autonomous version become available by end of 2017 or maybe start of 2018. At the end of 2018 I estimate 400k to 600k Tesla vehicles on fully autonomous autopilot.
Now that we know air pollution causes millions of premature deaths every year and that most of it is caused by burning hydro carbon fuels like biomass, coal, gas, and oil we need to let the power industry and the auto industry know that they have to stop making machines that operate on such fuels. By 2030 the combustion engine should be outlawed globally on all new car production and no more power plants should be build that burns hydrocarbons. On demand power plants should run on hydrogen made from renewable energy or operate on heat from heat sinks maintained from renewable energy. It is going to take longer to fix air pollution from aviation and shipping but they can be replaced by a new a global hyper loop network that will be electric and much faster than both airplanes and ships in particular. For shipping the hyper loop will be submerged to avoid bad surface weather. For flexibility short distance ships and air travel could be electrified using batteries.
Electrik has full coverage of these very important Tesla announcements. See Headlines are that Tesla has reduced the issues on Model X production by 93% compared to initial production that gave Tesla a below average in Consumer report. So that is now fixed. Another interesting announcement is that Musk will let owners of Tesla cars make the most part of the profit to be made from taxi driving on Tesla Network so that it is more relevant to say that Uber will compete with Tesla owners for taxi services rather than say Tesla is competing with Uber. Many people may actually be making money from owing a fleet of Tesla vehicles that they make available for Tesla Network without using the vehicles themselves. This is very interesting. It means there could be tens of thousands of small private Tesla fleet owners that make a living out of competing with Uber and others for taxi services. It means Tesla will not have to finance buying a large fleet of their own cars for use on the Tesla Network. Another headline is that Musk has made ramping up production of 100kwh battery packs a top priority on line with model 3 and software development for full autonomy autopilot. Apparently Tesla sees very strong demand for cars with the 100kwh battery. Tesla still expects to deliver 25k cars for Q4. I guess they could deliver more if it had not been for the introduction of the fully autonomous Hardware version 2 Teslas. There will probably be thousands that cancel not delivered but ordered cars because they want the new autonomous capable car instead. That will give some temporary logistic problems that means 25k cars will be it for Q4. For Q1, 2017 I expect another jump in deliveries. I also expect the 100khw option to be available for all versions of Tesla cars in Q1.
Herman thanks for the link to . I have bookmarked it. It does not have Tesla in it so currently it is not good for any comparisons. I am a data analyst so I know better than most that 1 fatality is no statistic for making conclusions at all. We need billions of miles and at least 30 deaths before it make sense to discuss safety in scientific terms. All we can do is wait for that to accumulate. Nevertheless Model S and Model X has better crashworthiness than any other car ever build. All test by authorities has proved that. On top of that Tesla is making a fully autonomous autopilot that ultimately are going to be ten times less likely to crass the car than a human driver in all circumstances. It is hell for old-style automakers as they make most of their profits on selling new cars and spare parts to fix traffic accidents. They do not want self-driving cars to happen but they now know it is inevitable and that they will bankrupt if they do not do it themselves. Cars without fully self-drive will have zero demand from 2025. Cars will still be sold in 2025 that have manual controls so you can drive them yourself if you want to. However, the law will require that the cars come with an autopilot that takes over if it detects an accident is about to happen as a result of human driving behavior. Full autopilot will be a mandatory safety feature for all new cars just like brakes and safety belts.
Still no sources Herman. And Tesla's safety score is still the highest ever recorded. However, Tesla is not allowed to say that in public for some reason probably old-auto lobbying. Tesla crumble zone is bigger than any other car on the market and it does not carry flammable liquids. Of cause it is safer. It also does not kill numerous people through air-pollution like all the gassers that kill millions every year prematurely on that account.
We do not need more earth destroyers from the old automakers with combustion engines. They need to stop doing what they are doing and start focusing on making fully self-driving BEVs that are more affordable per mile driven than gassers because they are far more durable and cost pennies in electricity per mile. Do not worry about range and charge time. Make the BEVs fully self-driving and operate them as a transportation service and these two problems with BEVs are history. Tesla will go online with such services somewhere on the planet during 2018 and have a global network offering driverless transportation services by millions of Tesla cars by 2020. Soon thereafter the old automakers that does not have the same kind of services will start to bankrupt as their conventional car sales will be in rapid and terminal decline. The future looks great. It is pollution free and nearly free of traffic accidents and it does not need fossil fuels or bio fuels at all.
When things are taking out of context the truth is distorted which is not fair to Tesla. The reliability issues with Model S and X that consumer report has noted is only for the initial production cars. As for any automaker and especially those that are making entirely new and unique products like Tesla it will take some time (typically a year) before the production is nearly error free. It is not a Tesla customer problem at all as these issues are fixed under warranty and Tesla customers are known to be more satisfied with their cars than any other car buyers on the planet. The acid test is customer satisfaction and Tesla has better ratings on this one than all of its competition. The other out of context thing is that I was referring to safety by the safety test performed by the authorities. Tesla does indeed best all its competition on this one also see link below fx. Herman you start to through completely undocumented data up that refer to death per million miles not safety ratings. Unless you provide sources for these data and circumstances they were collected etc it is worthless. It is true that Musk has referred to the death per million mile data. So far, only one death on Tesla autopilot for now well over 200 million miles possibly 300 million miles. The specific accident will most likely not happen again as the new Autopilot version 8 software is using the radar for main navigation and not the camera that was blinded in the death accident. The accident itself was a freak accident with a guy that in all likelihood was watching a video while he was supposed to drive. Again with version 8 he could probably not have been that much inattentive to driving as the version 8 software constantly prompts you to keep the hands on the wheel and deactivate autopilot if this is ignored. The new hardware version 2 autopilot in all Teslas produced going forward will be much more safe in the situations that Hardware version 1 could self-drive but it will also drive itself in a lot of new and much more challenging circumstances so the overall death per million mile will probably stay the same or about 1 death per 200 million miles which is over 3 times as good as the global stat and over 2 times as good as the US stat. I take note that none of you would be worried about driving a Tesla.
Brian Tesla’s cars best every other car on the market in terms of safety. They got top ratings at all the authorities that are testing for that. Their Autopilot is approved by all authorities jurisdiction by jurisdiction before it is deployed feature by feature just like the autopilots of other car makers. However, all reviews you can find about autopilot systems say Tesla’s implementation is the best by far. Also over 95% of those that order a Tesla order it with the autopilot option. About Falcon doors. They appear to work as intended and not break. There has not been any recalls yet. However, more years need to pass before we know whether they are as durable as regular doors. In most ways the Falcon doors are progress because it is easier to get in and out and they do not require much space or get in the way when opened. But they also cost more, open less fast and open the car more so rain and snow can enter easier when opening in bad weather. Tesla IMO should therefore also make a version with regular doors. I think Tesla will reach more customers that way by offering both solutions to the doors.
DL Tesla only buy the PX2 from NVIDIA. The software is Tesla made. Their may be driver and firmware that NVIDIA supplies but the AI pilot software is 100% Tesla made. I think Tesla has a deliberate strategy of not making it easy for others to copy Tesla so if Tesla can make it themselves in volume they will. Like the AI pilot software and the new camera sensors that are Tesla made also. Tesla's data center is also Tesla made. They will start using a new battery cell that is Tesla unique. It will only be made in that form factor with that chemistry on the Giga fac. The falcon doors are Tesla made etc. It is actually really hard to make a Tesla car if you are not Tesla. Tesla will enable a lot og growth by being the only maker of a fully autonomous car for a few years ahead of everybody else so they do it alone.
It is liquid cooled but the cooling system needs to be 100% reliable. Maybe they have two pumps for that just in case. It consumes 250 watt so it will quickly break if the cooling pump stops. The devise is made solely for automotive use so I assume it is designed to be a lot more reliable than a PC for consumer use in all regards.
OK Brian I get you now. You are talking general liability. I agree with you on this on. Tesla needs to take a lot of care not to be subject to a huge liability case. I am still not so worried about the self-driving system in this regard as it can be patched in days if something needs to be changed. Fx as you said the first implementation of Autopilot did not work as intended as people started almost immediately not to pay attention to driving as they were originally not required to hold the steering wheel. That was patched quickly in a few weeks so that 3 minutes was the maximum time not to give any steering inputs to the car. With software version 8 this requirement is further tightened to 1 min. and a new very effective rule that if you ignore warnings to keep the hands on the steering wheel for 3 times the autopilot will disengage and will not engage again until the car is parked somewhere. This is something people respect as it is more “annoying” than actually paying attention to driving. The reason for the autopilot is to take the stress out of driving not to drive the car as that is not yet possible just like an airplane autopilot. And people need to be reminded about that constantly until the day Tesla can say the autopilot is no longer an autopilot but a fully autonomous car. Tesla could call it Full Self-Drive Pilot to make it clear that driver attention is not needed. What worries me the most in terms of Tesla’s general liability is that they will sell a lot of Teslas with a dangerous battery pack that could burn unexpectedly like the Galaxy Note 7. This could bring down Tesla. They recently launched a new battery pack for the P100D and I really hope this battery is as safe as the previous battery packs. In a few months Tesla will also start making an even more upgraded battery pack for Model S and X and Model 3 at the Giga fac. It will use both a new cell and the new packing structure used in P100D so that battery pack needs to be checked really insanely carefully for its safety. No software patch can fix a battery pack that has a physical design flaw. It will be a total recall and they also need to redesign the battery. This would be a nightmare for Tesla.
Plus it will not be deployed before it is ready of cause. Tesla has no interest in ruining their reputation for making the world's safest car by deploying too early like Samsung did with the Note 7.
Brian liability is going to be easier to establish than ever with 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and one radar recording everything about the accidents in higher resolution than ever before. All Tesla vehicles has a black box that stores everything plus info is gatered continuously by Tesla's datacenter using the cars build in internet connection. So liability will be easier than ever. Tesla is already dealing with such liability cases regarding their old Autopilot and it is not causing any big problems exactly because they have got more evidence than ever even with the old Autopilot hardware.
EP I believe you are still using the 35Gwh nameplate for the Giga fac. Musk and Straubel now think they can make 105Gwh of cells and 150 Gwh of battery packs at the same space as what the got permit and land to build on. See below. Assuming all goes into model 3 and that Model 3 will use a 55kwh battery that is enough for making 2.7 million such Model 3 cars per year. If this is not enough to satisfy demand Tesla will build another fac and another and so forth. The petro dictators should enjoy it while it last because it their industry will be in terminal decline after 2020 when Tesla and other automakers start making million of driverless vehicles that each do about 100.000 miles per year. And then come the hyperloop trains that will end most international shipping and aviation as well because it is much faster with 1500 miles per hour and cost peanuts in energy costs that is all electric. However, making a submerged hyperloop for container shipping over the pacific and the Atlantic will be an insanely costly infrastructure project. However, it can be done and we do have the money on this planet to do it. It will take decades. We also get a worldwide super grid by doing it something that will make dealing with intermittency from renewable less costly.
I think Tesla’s rollout plan for the autonomous software is pretty simple. When their engineers and internal testers judge that a feature of the system (like adaptive cruise control with fully automatic lane change, (does not exist yet)) is ready for deployment Tesla will apply for permission to deploy that feature jurisdiction by jurisdiction. When they get that permission they deploy it. Eventually the number of features added to the system will make it a fully autonomous Autopilot. At that point Tesla must wait until they gather enough real world accident data in their datacenter monitoring all Tesla vehicles to conclude without any doubt that driving with Autopilot activated result in 50% less accidents >in all driving conditions< as when humans are in control. With this evidence on the book Tesla can apply jurisdiction by jurisdiction to be allowed to operate Tesla cars without human drivers behind the wheel and also apply for permission to start making versions of their vehicles that skip all the human controls like steering wheel, gas pedal and braking pedal. The latter vehicles will be operated mostly by the Tesla Network as taxis and owned by Tesla. When Tesla gets the permission they start deploying their Tesla Network jurisdiction by jurisdiction. Also Tesla owners will finally be allowed to drive hands free for as long as they wish or hail their cars from anywhere without any people in it. Finally, Tesla should also be allowed to sell versions of their cars without human controls to people that do not have a driver license like old people and disabled. I expect Tesla will get the fully autonomous system ready by late 2017 or early 2018 and the first permits to use the cars as fully autonomous cars will come in some jurisdictions shortly thereafter (one or two months). I hope the US will allow Tesla to start the Tesla Network in all of the USA by the end of 2018 and that Tesla will get permissions to drive everywhere it is sold globally by the end of 2019. Tesla will also start making other vehicles that will all be fully autonomous from launch. Like Model Y (the Model 3 with falcon dors), the minibus (a bus version of Model X for municipal transportation services that replace polluting diesel busses) the semi that will do away with heavy duty diesel trucks. A roadster and a pickup truck. All these vehicles will be launched before 2020. It is worth noting that Tesla could save 600.000 humans from dying each year in traffic accidents if their first version of their fully autonomous autopilot was deployed globally to all vehicles. Also recall that Tesla’s end goal is to make a version of Tesla’s autopilot that eliminates 90% of all accidents so that 1.080.000 lives could be saved per year globally in traffic accidents. Not deploying these systems is deliberate mass murder and people that try to stop the deployment should therefore be sued for participating in mass murder.
Brian apart from rewiring the circuit breaker in flight there is nothing a well trained AI autopilot cannot do that a human can do and the day will come where it can do more than a human brain without augmented synthetic AI build in. People still don't get that when you program and organise a computer like a human brain it will function like a human brain just a million times faster.
Electrec has a story that the NVIDIA PX2 sell for 15.000 USD a piece to OEMs in low volume like 10 per year for Audi and 100 per years for Volvo. Tesla buying at least 8000 per month should get it at a much lower price but it will still be costly for sure. It also use 250 watt witch is a lot. However, this level of computing power is needed for full autonomy AI autopilots so there is no alternative. And it will cheaper for sure.
Hopefully they will not use a combustion engine on these electrified vehicles. It must be pure BEV to be sustainable and low cost when equipped with a fully autonomous driving AI.
This is a big scoop for NVIDIA. Will be certain to attract new customers other than Tesla. That Tesla has chosen to use it means it is the best on the market currently for that type of computing jobs. NVIDIA's CEO also drives a Tesla. Bet he ordered a new one with this tech.
Bob all the hardware for the fully self-driving Autopilot is build into every vehicle that Tesla produces whether you order it or not. At Tesla’s configuration page (see link below) you can choose to buy and activate the Enhanced Autopilot hardware and software for 5000 USD at order time. If you do not order it and one year later regret it you can still buy and activate the feature but now it will cost you 6000 USD. You get a rebate for ordering faster. The full autonomous Autopilot will cost an additional 3000 USD and 4000 USD if you order it at a later point in time. Brian the new version of Teslas Autopilot will be able to 3D map the environment and calculate markers in that environment that can be used for precision navigation (1 inch) without using GPS or lane markers. These maps are crowd sourced from all Tesla vehicles. They only requite one Tesla vehicle to drive on a road once and then all subsequent Teslas that drive through will know exactly where they drive within the inch even though the lane markers are not visible. I read elsewhere that Musk plan to drive a Tesla from LA to NY on this fully self-driving Autopilot by the end of 2017 without any human intervention and neither any human intervention at the charger stations that will be upgraded with robotic chargers during 2017 and forward. Musk plan to start a nationwide autonomous taxi service sometime in 2018 for the US both using a fleet of Tesla owned vehicles and vehicles made available to that Tesla Network by private Tesla owners. All around the world you bet that CEOs of the old automakers but also Apple, Google and Uber etc are holding crisis meeting about how to step up their own market introductions of self-driving taxis as they are far more behind Tesla than they used to think until this announcement from Tesla. Harvey airpilots sit in the cockpit to fly whenever the Autopilot cannot just like Tesla’s limited Autopilot. A fully autonomous Autopilot for airplanes does not yet exist but it is getting close for that also. In 5 years time we will not need airplane pilots either.
At Tesla’s news blog about this upcoming fully autonomous Autopilot there is a video demonstrating this new hardware with a test version of the upcoming software. See link below. It shows that the car can handle stop lights and intersections. It even drives around without a driver at a Tesla parking lot to find a free parking spot. When it does it parks flawlessly. And it stops automatically for a person at the parking lot that block its way temporarily. It is very impressive. They are obviously very far in terms of making Tesla cars drive everywhere on their own.
Mahonj I was too pessimistic about when fully self-driving hardware would enter production cars by 3 years! Now with this surprising news I think that Tesla will be allowed somewhere on the planet and perhaps limited to preapproved roads to operate their cars as self-driving taxis sometime by 2018 and I think it will expand rapidly from there and cover most of the world by 2020 for Tesla’s cars. I am curious when exactly you expect it to evolve? Also Tesla can test and improve their self-driving hardware in all Tesla cars even when the Autopilot is not activated. It still runs in the background communicating with Tesla’s datacenter and making up to date maps and learning from the driving behavior of the human drivers. In just 12 months from now Tesla will get data from possibly over 130.000 Tesla cars that are equipped with this hardware on a daily basis. It will not take long to get the needed data to document that this is working as intended and will save lives on a massive scale when allowed. The regulators will be quick to adopt this. Who will be against saving 1.2 million people from dying in traffic accidents every year on this planet? This is one of the few cases where everybody wants it to happen ASAP.
The reporting on this news about Tesla is incorrect. The Gen 2 hardware suite has 8 cameras whereas the Gen1 hardware suite only had one camera (not 4 as reported). The 4 cameras is the cameras that are activated when Tesla buyers only opt for the Enhanced Autopilot costing 5000 USD, customers buying the full autonomy option (costing 8000 USD) will have all 8 cameras activated. All cars including Model 3 will have the full autonomy suite build in whether you buy it or not. This can always be bought and activated at a later point in time. It is worth noting that the one camera in Gen1 was made by Mobileye whereas the new 8 cameras are developed and produced by Tesla.