This is Change's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Change's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Change
Recent Activity
After 2025 a total ban on production and import on non-zero emission light duty vehicles should be implemented. Moreover, after 2030 make production and import of any non-zero emission vehicle illegal. We need to move that fast in order to prevent catastrophic global warming that could make agricultural production very difficult or impossible for most countries and that could melt the poles causing the world’s oceans to rise by 210 feet drowning most of today’s coast cities. We also need to go zero emission on all vehicles to prevent 7 million people from dying prematurely every year due to air pollution. All we need to do to stop making polluting cars globally before 2030 is to build approximately 100 of those 50Gwh battery factories that Tesla is building. This is very doable within that timeline.
VW is going free of any punishment in the EU because the old auto industry controls the people that are supposed to independently monitor this industry. VWs crimes in EU are on a far more severe scale with 10 million highly polluting VW diesels polluting over 50 times the legal limit killing 10s of thousands of people prematurely every year. A new report from The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has shown that small diesel cars in Europe now pollute 10 times as much in real world driving as Europe’s heavy duty diesel trucks. The worst part of it is that this extreme pollution from small diesels in EU is legal. No wonder that more Europeans want to break out of the EU. It has unfortunately become heavily corrupted by out of control industry lobbying that are twisting legishlation to become completely dysfunctional and unable to do what is was supposed to do in terms of protecting humans from otherwise easily avoidable pollution. There is more about this story here but the link is in Danish so you may need to translate it. http://jyllands-posten.dk/#ia9280570;finans
We have to start talking about banning the sale of unsustainable products like cars with combustion engines that are destroying this planet at an alarmingly fast rate. Species are dying out at 1000 times the rate of the preindustrial age and millions of people are now dying prematurely each year because of air pollution. A production ban is the only truly effective way to end the use of fossil fuels. Start by banning the production of small diesel cars and move on to also ban using old diesel cars in city centers. Require the car makers to pay compensation to the car buyers that was not told how damaging their car is to this world. The only good argument against a ban of cars with unsustainable combustion engines is that there is not yet enough alternatives available in volume. BEVs where still only 0.5% of total global car sales/production. The solution is to make a limited ban initially and then extending the ban to be all inclusive as more production capacity for sustainable BEVs is coming online.
Old auto industry enjoy it while it lasts. Self-driving BEVs that drives 5 times longer than gassers before retiring and that drives 7 times as many miles per year as non-self-driving cars will start to erode the annual US sales numbers. In 2021 when Tesla can make over 500,000 such cars to the US market alone ending annual sales of about 2,5 million non-driverless cars.
I may add that Tesla may surprise us all by announcing ultra fast charging for model 3 because it come with this new 2170 cell and Tesla could have made a 1200 V drive train for model 3.
It seems like Tesla’s 2170 format is fast becoming the industry automotive battery standard. I thing that I read both Lucid motor, Faraday Future and Riviam Automotive are all planning to use 2170 cells as well for their 300 to 400 miles range BEVs. Tesla is the only one in mass production with this cell for Powerpack 2 and powerwall 2 that got twice the kwh when going from previous 18650 cells to 2170. Part of that is caused by better packaging. Tesla will start production of Model 3 battery packs in q2, 2017. Tesla’s contract with Panasonic for the 18650 cells runs until 2018 so we may not see the new 2170 cell in Model S and X until 2019. At that time Tesla may do a complete redesign of the battery pack and power train to enable 1200 V tech and ultra fast charging at 600,000 watt enabling 50kwh in 5 min or enough to drive 150 miles.
No just shot it down and install some wind and solar power instead. Problem solved.
Electrek also covered this story and they have an interesting quote from VW “The Volkswagen brand’s big electric offensive begins in the year 2020 with a completely new vehicle architecture. That is when we will be launching an entirely new generation of fully connected, all-electric vehicles to the market. By 2025 we want to be selling one million of these vehicles annually. We are making electric mobility the new trademark of Volkswagen” See https://electrek.co/2017/01/09/vw-all-electric-autonomous-retro-microbus/ This is very disappointing. VW has little ambition with BEVs. Tesla a much smaller company is planning for an annual production of 1 million BEVs in 2020. Musk has not said how many BEVs Tesla will make in 2025 but with a Tesla Network up and running in 2018 and that can make each Tesla car earn over 100,000 USD per year in taxi fees Tesla will have the money to expand as fast as it is possible to hire new people and build new giga factories. Money and demand will not be a limiting factor for Tesla.
I like it. It is sustainable and it can transport people at low cost per mile as a replacement for polluting city buses. However, it is not scheduled to arrive until at least 2020. That is the bad thing. Luckily Tesla is working on a similar minibus possibly seating up to 9 without human controls that will be controlled by the Tesla Network. It is based on the Model X chassis, drive train and autopilot so it will be here much sooner. Maybe it will go on sale to city municipalities by H2, 2018. They could operate along mayor transits with driverless model 3’s doing the last mile door to door. Tesla is also going to make a business that drill tunnels underground for extra roads for BEVs. They will not cost much to make because you do not need a lot of ventilation as the BEVs do not pollute. Musk has said he plans to name it The Boring Company” no kidding. We can get rid of congestion by drilling tunnels for BEVs only. This is a brilliant idea also because tunnels are protected from bad weather and you can drill in several layers so there is no place on earth where you can’t eliminate all traffic congestion. For fast supersonic travel we use hyper loops also drilled underground to minimize the risk of sabotage. That can do away with most airplane traffic. Airplanes is really only good for military applications because of their needed flexibility. For civilian purposes we should just use hyperloops.
China has a policy of >80% of the value added in a product must be made in China or the product will be slammed by a huge import tax<. I think that policy is prudent and that all large countries or free trade zones should copy it on most products and services in order to secure large local production. Smaller countries need to form free trade zones with nearby countries to stay competitive or lower the 80% requirement. It is better for the environment if the global trade of physical goods is reduced to a minimum because more is produced locally and we also create a system that is more robust to major natural disasters or war that can block international trade. The transition to a fossil free economy also means that global trade of oil, gas and coal will disappear and that in itself will diminish international trade. We can transfer money and knowhow freely over borders but physical goods should mostly be made locally. This I believe will be the >new international trade world order< and it will be initiated by the new Trump administration. It will however take decades to be fully realized. Tesla is showing that labor costs are no longer important for super modern physical product production as very little labor is used per USD created. For example the new Giga factory will employ 7000 people that make 10 billion USD worth’s of products per year. If they are paid 70k USD each it is still only 420 million USD per year so labor cost is not important for the total cost of the products made. So we can do this transition to local production without risking drastic cost increases in the products. However, it will take time and we need to use robots like never before.
Another good argument for banning sales of small highly polluting diesel cars and also ban the use of small diesel cars in city centers. Also require automakers to pay compensation to owners of small diesel cars for not telling them how dangerous their cars are and for the inconvenience of not being allowed to drive them in large cities. We need to act effectively on air pollution in large cities and it needs to happen immediately.
The data for 2016 are in for USA. Total PEV sales is 158.455. http://ev-sales.blogspot.dk/2017/01/usa-december-2016.html The data for China accumulative until nov 2016 is 300.557 PEV. See http://ev-sales.blogspot.dk/2016/12/china-november-2016.html The global total for 2016 will be close to 800,000 PEV. http://ev-sales.blogspot.dk/2016/12/world-top-10-november-2016.html The conclusion is that there is strong grows in PEVs all over the world but the best growth is seen in countries that reward consumers for buying cars that do not destroy the planet. In Norway 33% of all new cars sold are now a PEV. When Tesla make their cars fully self-driving and also can deliver the model 3 in volume I expect Norway to hit over 60% of all new cars sold to be PEVs. It could happen in 2019.
The camera censors may be cheap but the installation of them with data and power cabels and redundancy is not cheap. There are several miles of cables in a modern car and even more in a self-driving Tesla. Tesla charges 8000 USD for the self driving ability option and I think this is a price they also need to charge for Model 3 that will have an identical sensor/computer package. I expect the price will not go down in the next 5 years for the autonomous option because Tesla will want to have more computing power and more sensors in the next few versions of their self driving hardware. The current version of Tesla’s self driving package will probably always be limited to 95% of all roads and only be twice as safe as human driving. The goal is 100% of all roads on the planet and 10 times safer. We need better hardware for that.
There are less polluting alternatives to this oil burner. Ford should not be allowed to sell a diesel version. Stay with gasoline versions and make a make a BEV and a natural gas version for the future when the gasoline versions also have to be banned. People who buy diesel cars should not be blamed for murder but Ford and other car makers that sell small highly polluting diesel cars are guilty of mass murder IMO. They know their cars kill millions of people prematurely every year and they sell them anyway. Air pollution is unbearable in most European cities and we need to stop it now by banning new sales of diesels and prohibiting old diesels from entering city centers. Car makers should pay compensation to those who bought a diesel car and was not told how damaging it is to humans and also now will have to suffer from being unable to use their car in large cities. We need far more drastic legislation to combat air pollution in Europe and Asia for sure. And it is coming. There may be a temporary halt in environmental legislation in the US but it continues to be tightened everywhere else as it should. We do not have a future unless we make sustainable products for everything we need. And we can do that without sacrificing anything in the process.
Forward looking cameras and LIDARs in particular will gather dust and snow and subsequently malfunction unless they are placed behind lens washers like in the headlights or behind the front windshield washers. Sonar and radar will function despite dust and snow. I think Tesla’s solution with 3 cameras just below the roof behind the front windshield is ideal. For real world autonomous cars the sensors need to be out of sight and they need to have a system for removing dirt and snow. All of Tesla’s cameras have a heater that removes snow and ice. I am not sure the side and back looking cameras in Tesla cars has a system for removing dust. However, they are oriented so that they are shielded from the wind when the car moves forward. Software could sound an alarm when it is time for the vehicle owner to manually clean these sensors to secure proper functioning. Ford has made a solution that washes the camera see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsikAvX91Ss If needed, Tesla may get that system also for its side and backward looking cameras. Hopefully it is not needed. It adds cost and stuff that can break. Hopefully a monthly manual cleaning will do.
You may be right Davemart. Tesla can use whatever anode or cathode or separator tech that they see fit. However, the 2170 format will stay fixed. Tesla’s highest priority will be to make batteries that can do daily deep cycles for ten years. Their Powerwalls and Powerpacks need that ability. The self-driving Tesla cars will be doing 300 miles per day on the Tesla Network in 2018 so they also need that ability as well. They may use the exact same cells for both cars and grid storage. Durability is more important than fast charging or high energy density because it affects how fast the car will wear out. At 100k miles per year we need a battery that can do 3000 deep cycles and last 10 years. Tesla offers unlimited miles and 8 years in warranty and they need to stay with that going forward. As the old carmakers only offer at most 150,000 miles warranty it is a huge argument for buying a Tesla. What is on Tesla’s mind is foremost durability, then energy density because it affect costs (higher energy density means less use of raw materials and in mass production it is the cost of raw materials that matters) and only in third place is fast charging ability. Durability and fast charging ability may be fully and positively correlated. The problem is energy density that is negatively correlated with the other two. My expectation is that Tesla will offer a new battery pack this year 2017 for Model 3, S and X that does not gain much in terms of kwh but that is a big step forward in terms of durability and fast charging capability. The ultra fast charge ability may not be offered until late 2018 or 2019 because Tesla still need to work on a brand new 1200 V engine and power electronic and “ultra” charger station. But 500,000 to 600,000 watt charging could definitely be the next big thing from Tesla after they make all of their cars fully self-driving in early 2018.
The Ioniq has a record high 136 MPGe which sends a good signal about how efficient the Model 3 could be. http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=alts&path=3&year1=2016&year2=2017&vtype=Electric&srchtyp=newAfv
The prospect of 400k watt BEV charging is super exciting. There is a video on the link below that shows Chargepoint’s CEO demonstrating their 400k watt charger. The cable is liquid cooled as expected and it is far more flexible than I feared it would be. From the video it seems that 400k watt is not going to be the limit for BEV charging at all. It could be even higher. It has convinced me that 350k watt is coming by the old automakers before 2020 and I think Tesla will trump it with something better before then. Tesla could go directly to 1200 Volt tech and enable 600,000 watt charging or less than 10 min to charge a 100kwh battery that has over 300 miles of range! It can be done with super efficient battery cells and power electronics that do not heat up too much during such a charge. https://electrek.co/2017/01/05/chargepoint-ceo-pasquale-romano-shows-off-400kw-charging-station-answers-questions-about-tesla-adapter/
Sure, but China will have to pay the import taxes that other countries require them to pay for their import as other countries are required to pay China for importing stuff to China. Tesla is taxed by over 100% for their China export because Tesla currently does not have any production in China. So for Tesla it will be a priority to establish Chinese production in order to compete in the Chinese market. I do not blame China for their policy of >80% must be made in China or the product will be slammed by a huge import tax<. I think that policy is prudent and that all countries should copy it on most products and services in order to secure large local production. It is better for the environment if global trade of physical goods is reduced to a minimum because more is produced locally and we also create a system that is more robust to major natural disasters or war that can block international trade. The transition to a fossil free economy also means that global trade of oil, gas and coal will disappear and that in itself will diminish international trade. We can transfer money and knowhow freely over borders but physical goods should mostly be made locally. This I believe will be the >new international trade world order< and it will be initiated by the new Trump administration. It will however take decades to be fully realized. Tesla is showing that labor costs are no longer important for super modern physical product production as very little labor is used per USD created. For example the new Giga factory will employ 7000 people that make 10 billion USD worth’s of products per year. If they are paid 70k USD each it is still only 420 million USD per year so labor cost is not important for the cost of the products made. So we can do this transition to local production without risking drastic cost increases in the products. However, it will take time and we need to use robots like never before.
It was a scoop for NVIDIA to get Tesla as their customer again for Tesla’s hardware revision 2 of their autopilot. They competed with AMD and Intel that was also considered by Tesla. Now NVIDIA is getting many new orders for their automotive chips from older automakers. And when Tesla succeed in making the software for full autonomy later this year or during H1, 2018 NVIDIA also get the right to brag about its chip the PX2 being the world’s first chip to power a fully autonomous car. Autonomous cars will require seriously powerful computers like the 24 terra flops in PX2. Far more processing power than needed for most office work. We will need about 1 billion fully autonomous vehicles to do nearly all transportation services on the planet. Probably only 100 million vehicles will be privately owned. The rest will be used as taxies in order to maximize the usage of these expensive and durable machines. So it is a big potential market for NVIDIA. It will be 1 billion supercomputers with a spare for redundancy so a fleet of 2 billion supercomputers.
China is already the world’s largest economy in terms of industrial production. It only lacks behind the US in terms of production of services like health care. However, China’s pollution problems will bring their economic growth to an abrupt halt as more people get sick and die of pollution induced illnesses. China has an ongoing cancer epidemic and an epidemic of respiratory illnesses. They have to do something about it quickly and it is necessary to use much more environmental regulation that will raise the direct cost of their industrial production. Their current industrial production is clearly unsustainable and will lead to the destruction of the country. People are dying and agricultural land is lost permanently to pollution and erosion. Trump will demand a renegotiation of the free trade terms with China so US companies get the exact same access to China’s make as China has to the US. China has a rule that in order to sell import tax free in China some 80% of the value added needed to be produced in China. I think the Trump administration will require the same from China and thereby force Chinese companies to build factories in the US in order to sell Chinese products in the US. I think global trade will be reorganized along these lines that 80% of the value added must be locally produced or very high import taxes will apply. Same goes for oil and gas. Imported oil and gas must be taxed in order to promote domestic production. If a Saudi oil company want to sell oil or gasoline in the US they need to drill it in the US and refine it in the US.
The Tegra K1 is from 2013. Why not use the new PX2 from NVIDIA that Tesla uses and that it 40 times more powerful? Audi newest ADAS is obsolete on arrival. Nor can its software be OTA updated like it can in Tesla's cars. Audi has ten times more resources than Tesla and still they can't get it right with this all important tech. They need to start firing the executives in charge of Audis autopilot program because they are not up to the task.
Harvey gassers and oil burners will get more expensive in the future because of environmental regulation. Only BEVs are getting less costly. They will become the least costly vehicles in the market per mile traveled as soon as they get operated as driverless taxies doing 100k miles per year thus taking full advantage of their 5 times longer durability, lower maintenance cost and lower fuel costs than gassers. New gasser production will be banned in many countries after 2025/30. They are simply too harmful and there will be less costly BEV alternatives available in volume by then so they should be banned.
My apology. It was unnecessary to insult Davemart. I get a little carried on sometimes.
So Davemart’s chicken brain still cannot phantom that level 2 and level 3 ADAS are already saving life whenever the human driver gets so inattentive that an accident would have occurred was it not for the ADAS that saved the day and prevented the accident because it was able to steer the car safely in that situation. The thing about autopilots is that they are never inattentive like humans and they never get tired. The only problem left to solve is to make the autopilots handle all driving situations like humans can. However, level 2 and level 3 ADAS are already saving life and result in fewer accidents than cars without any ADAS systems. Exactly how much is hard to say. Only Tesla is systematically collecting this info and they have not yet gathered enough data to make really good scientific conclusions. There is only one documented traffic death with ADAS activated compared to 1.2 million death per year. And Davemart want to shot down the entire global industry development because of one death with ADAS. LOL. Moreover, the faster we develop these systems the more people will be saved because when we reach level 4 and 5 the number of accidents could drop at least 50% and over 90% when the systems get more mature by 2020 to 2025. We do not need idiots like Davemart to slow down this progress by their unfounded criticism.