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Henrik
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The Verge has the story that the driver who was killed when driving in autopilot was known for making himself noticed on you tube by posting videos of close encounters with autopilot on. He filmed everything and deliberately bought himself into dangerous situation in order to have some interesting to post on you tube. See link to The Verge below and one of his deliberate reckless driving events. The good thing is that he died before he could kill anybody else with his lust for narcissism. As always Davemart is criticising Tesla for whatever he can because he is angry he can’t afford to drive one himself and is being motivated by pure envy and vile towards those who can. http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/30/12072634/tesla-autopilot-crash-autonomous-mode-viral-video
So far only Tesla and BYD have been able to grow sales by more than 50% annually. There are no arguments why BYD should suddenly start to grow far less than they currently do. I think BYD will play a bigger role than the one depicted. The Leaf has not been a success as Nissan planned for 250k units per year but has never sold more than 50k units per year. The Big Bang in the global auto-industry will happen shortly after 2020 when the first commercial driverless taxis and trucks start driving around with people and goods. That will change everything very fast and I expect half of all auto-makers that we know today will bankrupt because they cannot convert fast enough their business model from selling cars and trucks to selling miles per passenger or miles per ton of goods and packages. Cars and trucks will be built for fleet ownership and to last for at least a million miles and to be able to do over 100k miles per year at the lowest cost per mile possible and that means they will all be battery electric and they will not use much steel that rust and is non durable compared to composites and aluminium.
Another paid endorsement. The leader is obviously Tesla. Second is perhaps Volvo and Nissan. Benz is not hopeless but Toyota and Honda are the industry laggards in this regard and their pour sense of judgement with regard to spending on FCV should trigger some much needed management changes which is not going to happen in Toyota's case because of large family ownership.
The idea of going into a Tesla showroom and get help on ordering a complete package that will enable you to get zero emission transportation and also to get a zero emission power plant on the roof of your house is a compelling constellation. Tesla’s already strong brand will become synonymous with sustainable living which will make it an even stronger brand. Buying a solar PV power plant for your house with back-up batteries is a complicated affair and you do not want to buy such a product from a week brand that you have little knowledge of or trust in. So I think it makes sense for Tesla and Solarcity to merge so that it becomes a company that under a single Tesla brand offers sustainable lifestyles with respect to energy and transportation. I believe Musk has previously talked about manufacturing PV cells and panels but only when they have a plan for doing it on an unprecedented large scale in order to gain a cost advantage to other PV cell and panel makers. Today the worlds largest PV factories are at 1 Gw cells or panels per year so Musk will probable not make such a factory until he thinks he has a distribution system in place that can handle the output of a 10 Gwatt per year integrated, cell and panel factory. Meanwhile the old auto-industry keep lobbying for regulations that will enable them to keep producing cars that are grossly unsafe to drive killing 1.2 million people per year globally and also causes millions more to die prematurely every year from lifelong inhalation of dangerous vehicle exhaust gasses.
Tesla does it in order to save production cost by simplifying the production of model S and X. Tesla only have to produce and service to types of battery packs the 75kwh and the 90kwh packs which are identical for Model S and X. To make a separate production line for a 60 kwh battery and also engineer the car and software to fit that battery size does not pay also because only a small percentage of Tesla’s cars are sold as 60kwh model S editions. However, it is important for Tesla to announce a lower starting price for Model S so the 60kwh edition is important to have for marketing reasons. Had the production volume been much higher like the possibly 500k units per year for Model 3 then I do not think Tesla would do it this way. In that case it would be more economical to enginer say 3 different battery sizes for the Model 3. It is interesting to note that Tesla can get 210 miles out of a car with a 60kwh battery limit and a 75kwh heavy battery for Model S. The model 3 promise 215 miles in a smaller car. I estimate it will just need a 55kwh battery to achieve that. Model 3 will clearly be more efficient than the Bolt.
They need to ban sales of new non-commercial diesels too. They are also very much part of the problem.
The old auto-industry make frequent claims about increasing efficiency every year it is 10 to 20% more efficient. Yet there is zero long-term improvement of MPG. It is all BS. The fact is that they keep producing cars that pollute a lot and that causes millions of people to die prematurely every year from air pollution and millions more are killed or severely injured because their cars are far less safe than they could be. The only car maker that takes pollution and car safety serious is Tesla. The old car industry needs to do like Tesla and stop lobbying for less strict rules on safety and emission standards.
When you buy a Tesla the internet connection follows for free for the life of the car and it is a fast one. Why can’t Audi match that? What is taking them so long? Obviously cars need to have internet connections for a number of good reasons like OTA software updates, navigation, serviceability and info gathering for improving the autopilot. So it is inevitable that all cars will come with internet for free for the life of the car. However, the old auto-industry simple don’t get it. They have to bleed market share before they get it I suppose or bankrupt.
With autonomous BEV trucking reducing the cost of freight over land by minimum 50% we will see much more long-haul trucking not less. Both shipping and aviation freight will lose market share to land transportation. EP solutions that require lots of new infrastructure will be too costly to implement. The only infrastructure needed for the solution I propose is a network of supercharger stations like the one Tesla is building and that we know costs peanuts. Harvey as always you continue to impress by being totally unrealistic about everything. Non-stop long-distance heavy duty trucks on batteries are not possible because the battery will be too heavy and large for that and because it is uneconomical to have large expensive battery packs. A large truck may need 100kwh to go just 30 miles with cooling of vegetables for instance. This is why you need short-distance travel like 50 miles between charging stations in order to keep the cost and the size of the batteries down. This is also why long-haul BEV trucking will not begin until they become fully autonomous. Fortunately that will happen not long after 2020. I think Tesla will be first with long-haul BEV container trucking because they are the only one with a large global network of supercharger stations that can support that in 2020.
The solution for the electrification of long-haul trucking is to make fully autonomous trucks that drive for one hour and charges for 30 minutes and so forth non-stop 7/24. That means they can do 16 hours per day of driving at an average of 50 mph so 800 miles per day or 292,000 miles per year and no cost for a human driver either. No tractor swapping is needed. It will reduce the cost of long-haul trucking by at least 50%. I expect Tesla will do it shortly after 2020 if no one else can beat them to it.
I added the Tesla Model S90D for comparison and it shows its combined fuel economy is 103 MPGe versus only 97 MPGe for the new Ford in electric mode. Tesla is still doing a much better job on efficiency than Ford despite having a much larger and heavy vehicle. The next iteration of Model S will increase its EPA range to over 300 miles which is more than many gassers get on a full tank. http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=36248&id=37470&id=37240
That is 3 billion USD wasted on a tech that will be worthless when the fully driverless BEV taxi services are a reality in a few more years. Tesla will not even spend 3 billion USD for combined R&D for model S, X and 3. They spent more than that for their production equipment but not on their R&D. The old auto-industry will not change strategy until a newcomer like Tesla starts to take serious market share away from the old industry. Hopefully that will happen with model 3.
It will be really big news if they can indeed launch a fully autonomous taxi service by 2018 in Singapore. That will initiate a true transportation revolution that will change everything we know about transporting people and goods. Autonomous vehicles is going to be one of the few multi-trillion USD industries in the world and it will wipe out the oil industry and the industry for making combustion engines and complex transmissions as well as much of the global steel industry as autonomous vehicles will be ultra durable BEVs build will ultra durable materials and that is not steel.
Lad you are right. It is battery tech that will solve air pollution for land based vehicles. EP mocked me a bit for my belief that HEPA filters could do much for limiting air pollution in combustion cars. I looked a bit more into it and he was right. HEPA does not stop a range of polluting gasses in the exhaust and only stops PM3.0 and above. We need to stop PM2.5 and below as well especially in turbocharged engines that produces a lot more of that kind of air pollution. The more I look into it the more I realize that the combustion engine as a technology is at its limit. It still pollute way too much to be acceptable long-term and the remedies to make it pollute less is not working well enough and are also prohibitively expensive. There is really only one solution left that will solve all problems. Go BEV and make them fully self-driving to avoid the range anxiety issue and slow charging times. And sell miles instead of cars in order to take advantage of the high durability and low operating cost of BEVs versus gassers. It will take some time. However, Tesla’s success in this field will eventually force everyone else to go in this direction as well or simply die out in the competition that follows.
Now I looked it up and a HEPA filter only stops PM3.0 and above. We need something better to catch PM2.5. It may turn out to be impossible to get rid of serious air pollution without getting rid of all combustible fuels.
EP I do not imagine a HEPA filter as a standalone devise. It will work in combination with other exhaust treatment systems. And you are right the HEPA filter cannot stop many toxic gasses other systems need to do that. But it will stop all particle pollution including PM2.5 which is an increasing problem with turbocharged engines.
EPA and other environmental agencies should push for requiring all new vehicles with combustion engines to become zero emission cars apart from CO2. You can eliminate all other pollution elements from a combustion engine by using a HEPA filter (like the one that cleans Tesla’s cabin air) on the exhaust gasses. That will remove everything apart from nitrogen, CO2 and any residual oxygen. It will be expensive and heavy and it will consume energy as the exhaust gasses needs to be pumped through the HEPA filter under pressure and the filter will require maintenance. However, by requiring all fossil and bio fuel burning cars and power plants to clean their exhaust gasses by HEPA filters all air pollution could be eliminated. Only remaining problem is CO2 which is not an air pollutant but only a greenhouse gas. This is just an idea that I have not seen any economic calculations on. However, technically it can be done. The remaining question is could it be prohibitively expensive? With HEPA filters on all fuel exhaust sources it will also be easy to verify whether companies are in compliance with the law as any detectable pollutants from the exhaust will implicate non-compliance. We need a legal system that has zero tolerance for air pollutants so that we can save approximately 7 million people from dying prematurely each year from air pollution as estimated by WHO. Eliminating air-pollution should be the top priority for global politics above everything else because the scale of the problem is bigger than any other problem on this planet including terrorism, AIDS, global warming, malaria, etc.
I expect Tesla will need more capital than that to reach 500,000 units produced in 2018. They need most investments to be made this year and next year in particular to be ready for true mass production in 2018. Maybe Tesla will also issue corporate bonds or something else in addition to this equity issue. If Tesla can pull off increasing production from 50k for 2015 to 500k in 2018 it will be unprecedented and historical. If anyone can do it, it is Tesla. They are the A team of the global auto industry. The Model 3 has probably become the largest manufacturing project on the planet at the time being. It is that huge. Tesla is probably building capacity for making 350k model 3 in 2018. At an average selling price of 43k USD that production will generate 15 billion USD in revenue per year. If Tesla can make the Model 3 fully autonomous its production could increase IMO to a million units per year or more. I hope the model 3 will launch with all the hardware needed for full autonomy and that the software will be perfected and upgraded subsequently by OTA so that full autonomy is a reality in a model 3 or any other Tesla model by 2020.
EPA and other environmental agencies should push for requiring all new vehicles with combustion engines to become zero emission cars apart from CO2. You can eliminate all other pollution elements from a combustion engine by using a HEPA filter (like the one that cleans Tesla’s cabin air) on the exhaust gasses. That will remove everything apart from nitrogen, CO2 and any residual oxygen. It will be expensive and heavy and it will consume energy as the exhaust gasses needs to be pumped through the HEPA filter under pressure and the filter will require maintenance. However, by requiring all fossil and bio fuel burning cars and power plants to clean their exhaust gasses by HEPA filters all air pollution could be eliminated. Only remaining problem is CO2 which is not an air pollutant but only a greenhouse gas. This is just an idea that I have not seen any economic calculations on. However, technically it can be done. The remaining question is could it be prohibitively expensive? With HEPA filters on all fuel exhaust sources it will also be easy to verify whether companies are in compliance with the law as any detectable pollutants from the exhaust will implicate non-compliance. We need a legal system that has zero tolerance for air pollutants so that we can save approximately 7 million people from dying prematurely each year from air pollution as estimated by WHO. Eliminating air-pollution should be the top priority for global politics above everything else because the scale of the problem is bigger than any other problem on this planet including terrorism, AIDS, global warming, malaria, etc.
A major global oil company buying a well known lithium battery maker! Change is coming and some of the oil companies seem to know the writing on the wall that they will all be gone 40 years from now replaced by clean technologies like batteries.
Range is an issue today but it is not the same problem for all people. I would say that 60% of all drivers would be able to drive effortlessly for all of their driving habits with a 200 miles range BEV that can be fully recharged in 40 min. Both the Bolt and the Model 3 is expected to do that. Add an option for a larger battery pack that gives you 300 miles range and 90% of all potential drivers will be satisfied for all of their needs. These cars will be produced in high volume at affordable prices before 2020. Hydrogen cars will not be mass produced or affordable by 2020. For the final 10% of the potential market that cannot be served satisfactory by a 300 miles BEV the answer is self-driving cars. When cars become fully self-driving and they will at about 2020 or shortly thereafter BEV range and charging time becomes irrelevant as you can just jump into another fully charged BEV if the one you are transported by is running low on electrons. Problem solved. I do not think 70,000 FC cars will ever be produced per year. It is much more than needed for testing and developing the technology and it will never be able to be developed to a point where it can compete with BEVs or gassers on price and usability. Therefore, fuel cell cars will never be able to be sold in any market unless they are absurdly subsidized. Fuel cell vehicles are a dead end and by 2020 I expect everybody to see it clearly even Toyota.
My thought also. If Ghosn want to sell more Leafs make it with min 200 miles range and sell it for 30k USD. 35k USD would not make it competitive with Model 3.
Musk said in Tesla’s earnings call conference that about 6500 unique parts go into making the Model 3 and that external supplies has been told to be ready for production start by July 1, 2017 or there will be consequences. He also said that it is impossible to start production on July 1, 2017 because a few suppliers will for one reason or another simply not be ready and even one missing part means production cannot start. So production will be delayed by some months and it is unavoidable in our imperfect world where people die unexpectedly, fires happen, human laziness and incompetence, etc. It is more risky to push that hard for production ramp up but the benefits are also enormous. Risk can be managed by ensuring that Tesla has enough capital to endure a delay of production ramp up that will happen to some extent. The benefit is that Tesla will get to mass production faster for what now appears to be become one of the world’s best selling cars. Also Tesla will be first to hire all the high-voltage engineers that are going to be in short supply globally in a few years. Tesla will pretty much buy all available and planned production capacity for battery machine and materials fabrication on a global scale. It will be harder for others to follow Tesla because Tesla has already hired the best people and the available global production capacity in key areas. Also Tesla can make better deals faster with suppliers because their orders are so large. The price always drops the more you order although I admit that the price will go up if you need super fast delivery as Tesla want. Musk also said that he believed the Model S and Model X was proof that Tesla knows how to make great cars. They designed them to be just that. However, Model 3 is designed first and foremost to be easy to mass produce at low cost. It is a great car but most of the engineering effort will be about designing its 6500 parts in a way that is suited for mass production and low cost. Musk also revealed that they had enough buildings and land at Fremont and Nevada to build 1 million cars at these locations and he even speculated that Tesla could reach that production level in 2020. For logistic reasons, however, Musk expect Tesla to make factories in both Europe and Asia as it cost too much to transport 4000 pound cars selling at 35k USD around the planet.
Tesla will most definitely need to make multiple equity sales within 2018 to finance such a rapid expansion. The accelerated expansion is the right thing to do with all these orders for Model 3. You can’t have people wait forever for that car. Had Tesla not made a strategic decision to internalize battery pack and cell production as well as cell component production such a rapid expansion would have been impossible. I expect Tesla to make a 2 billion USD equity offer this year and another 2 billion USD for 2017 and another 2 billion USD for 2018. They need that money now that they have two years less to make money from gross earnings selling Model S and Model X. A rough guess from me is that Tesla needs about 10 billion USD to invest in that Giga factory and for new production lines at the Fremont factory. Also interesting to see that Tesla has delivered powerpacks to customers produced at the Giga fab “Tesla Energy posted strong growth in the quarter as well. During Q1, we delivered over 25 MWh of energy storage to customers in four continents. We delivered over 2,500 Powerwalls and nearly 100 Powerpacks in the quarter throughout North America, Asia, Europe and Africa.” Quoted from shareholder letter. I expect that amount to increase exponentially in the coming quarters. 25Mwh is 25,000 kwh or assuming a pack price of 500 USD per kwh 12.5 million USD. Going to be interesting to follow that segment growth as well. I hope that Tesla will add a towing option for Model S soon. They need that for making it a perfect car apart from a fully self-driving autopilot. I believe almost 25% of all cars have a towing hook so it is really something that is important for a lot of people. I also applaud Tesla for adding the HEPA air pollution defense system for Model S. Everybody needs that. I my opinion the legislation should require all new cars sold to have HEPA grade air filters because of all the cancer and asthma that road air pollution are causing among car drivers.
Here is a link to Tesla’s announcement about their HEPA filter tests that is far more informative about this very important problem (air-pollution) that kill 3 million people per year globally or three times more than the vehicles kill in traffic accidents. https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/putting-tesla-hepa-filter-and-bioweapon-defense-mode-to-the-test