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A found a link to a news peace confirming that the batery chemistry used in Tesla's powerwalls and powerpacks is not the same as the one used in the Model S. However, no specifics about what type of chemistry and who delivers them. I can only speculate that Tesla sticks with the 18650 form factor and perhaps is still using Panasonic for those other types of cells. The prices that Tesla charges for the batteries is the best evidence yet that Tesla's costs at the cell level must be in the 200 to 250 USD range per kwh which is much better than all of Tesla's potential competitors for energy backup. http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/05/01/teslas-new-powerwall-home-battery-will-cost-3500-for-10kwh-units/ Teslas backup batteries are already sound economic business in places where electricity prices are high or where there are large fluctuations in prices from peak to non-peak demand such as Hawaii, Califormia, Italy and Germany. As renewable energy is expanding further globally there will be even more daily fluctuations in elctricity prices on the grid in more places and this will drive the sales of Teslas backup batteries. This year 50 GW of solar power will come online globally costing 150 billion USD or 3 USD per installed watt. Practically none of this capacity is delivered with energy storage which would add about 1 USD per Watt to the cost of solar power. By 2030 we can expect solar and battery backup to cost 50% less so about 2 USD for solarpower and daily battery backup per installed watt and therefore a total cost of residential electricity at about 10 cents per kWh (as each installed watt delivers about 20kWh during its 20 year life). In 2030 I expect the global solarpower and battery backup business to be a 500Gw per year business or 1000 billion USD per year. For comparison the global oil industry at 90 million barrels per day at 55 USD per berrel is a 1800 billion USD per year industry. However, in 2030 I expect this oil industry to be in rapid decline as self-driving battery electric taxis and trucks are at full speed replacing the globel fleet of vehicles that operate on gasoline and diesel. We simply do not need to burn fossils in the future. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
Harey the average residential cost per kwh in the USD is 12.29 cents so solar power is still too costly for many who cannot afford the luxury to pay extra for clean power. However, the 12.3 cents is an average. In Hawaii they pay 31 cents per kwh so solar power will save you money. With Tesla's backup power system solar power for Hawaiians is simply a no brainer. Expect Tesla to do extreamly well in Hawaii when they are able to mass produce their Powerwalls next year. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a
@mahonj In the equatorial belt there are probably 2 billion people and probably 500 million have no electricity at all and are extremely poor. There may be 500 million of those 2 billion who are connected to a well functioning and stable grid. The last 1 billion that have electricity is on an extremely unstable grid that is on and off multiple times per day and the grid downtime is perhaps 2 to 4 hours on average per day. If you can afford it you supplement your grid power with a diesel generator. I expect there are 10s of millions among the 1 billion that depend on an unstable grid that can afford a solar cell roof and a Tesla backup solution even though we are talking 30k USD for the solar cells (10kW installation) and 10k USD for a Tesla backup system. These people could say goodbye to a grid that is hopeless anyway and save them the cost of buying diesel for that generator and a new generator for every 3000 hours of operation which may be as much as every 4th year. In the northern hemisphere there are many more wealthy customers for Tesla's energy systems. They already have a stable grid so the main motivation for going off grid during spring and summer will be a genuine concern for the environment and a willingness to do the right thing for our planet. I still do not see any important savings. Going off grid for most of the year will not save you any money. We need lower prices for solar power and battery backup before that happens. Today it will cost you about 40k USD to get a proper solar power roof (10kW peak power) with a Tesla battery backup system. This system may last 20 years and produce about 200,000 kWh over those 20 years so the cost per kwh is 20 cents per kwh. For everybody to order solar power with battery backup we need a 50% price reduction which is achievable within the next 15 years. The global solar power and battery backup industry could become a bigger industry than the global oil and gas industry by 2030. So yes Tesla IMO is definitely in a high growth industry and they are leading it.
After reading and thinking a little more I think that both the 7kwh daily cycle pack and the 10kwh weekly cycle pack may actually use the same cells as the Model S. Both systems weight 100 kg and are identically dimensioned. The only difference may be in the control software. Each battery pack could contain 10kWh of standard Model S cells. The reason that the nominally rated 7kwh unit can do 365, 7kwh cycles per year for at least 10 years is that it is limited to 70% SOC at the cell level so that the cells will last much longer. Therefore, most house owners with solar power will probably just need to install one 10 kwh and one 7 kwh unit in order to go completely off-grid most of the year. The grid is dirty and always will be as long as it contains nuclear and fossil fuel burning power plants. Therefore, the more people that can go off-grid for a longer time during the year the better for everybody on our planet.
@Mahonj in Musk's presentation he actually say that he imagines that people living in the equatorial belt will forgo ever building a grid and central power plants because it is cheaper and fully sufficient using solar cells and battery backup power just like those countries have skipped laying telephone lines and gone directly to wireless smart phones. As you know very well the sun shines equally much every day during the year in the equatorial belt so this is possible. In the Northern and Southern hemisphere the sun have seasons so we either need a grid with central power plants or we could start building small scale underground heat sinks storing 100 of kWh of energy per cubic meter of heated sand in insulated containers for storing seasonal energy. The heat sinks are heated up during summer with excess solar power and the energy is subsequently used during winter for electricity and heat production. Really for security reasons we should not have central power plants and a grid as it can easily be sabotaged and we cannot afford just a little downtime on our power systems. They need to be running all of the time especially during natural disasters and terror attacks.
Also nice that up to nine Powerwalls can be connected giving the owner of a large house a 90kWh storage with 18kW of continuous power and 30kW of peak power. That should cover the needs of 98% of all house owners (including Davemart who need 4 Powerwalls) and for those 2% with more need than 9 Powerwalls Tesla's Powerpacks will be applicable. There are already several million homeowners globally with solar roof power and many more millions are coming on line in the future so Tesla's power systems will have a very large market especially since Tesla's systems are the most affordable and practical that currently is on the market.
Here is a link to Musk's presentation of the Tesla power systems. One commentator called it the best tech keynote presentation by any CEO ever in history even better than Steve Jobs presentations of the iPhones. I agree. It is really good. Musk have you convinced that Tesla has a product you can order now that you can afford and that can make a real difference for a better future for all of us. Now homeowners in the Northern hemisphere will have an option to become pollution free during summer and spring using Tesla Powerwalls, solar cells, a geothermal heat pump and battery electric cars. http://www.theverge.com/2015/5/1/8527543/elon-musk-tesla-battery-feels I noted that musk during the presentation said Tesla was in talk with a utility to deliver a 250MW backup system based on the Powerpack! So it is truly scalable. Also good to see that Tesla can deliver 10kwh for only 3500 USD at the pack level. That is the lowest price 350 USD per kWh I have ever seen for such a battery backup system. The powerwall weights 100 kg so 100wh/kg which is not much. For that reason and also because the cycle life of the Model S batteries is not high enough to support a 10 year warranty on a battery that will see daily deep cycles for ten years I am convinced Tesla uses another battery cell for those Powerwalls and Powerpacks than they for the Model S. May still be a 18650 cell though.
The ultimate goal is sustainability which can only be achieved by a 100% reduction of greenhouse gases not 80% by 2050. The power sector can easily drop CO2 emitting fuels by 2050. The entire land based transportation sector can be based on battery electric propulsion easily by 2060 and aviation and shipping can use carbon neutral bio fuels for long-distance transport and batteries for short-distance transport. So 100% is the ultimate goal hopefully before 2060.
The future is fully autonomous cars and trucks that transport people and goods automatically. They will all be battery electric because those are many times more durable than gassers and because autonomous cars and trucks will come with the battery size fit for the transportation job in mind. So if you live in the city and need a 20 mile drive for two persons you will get a short range BEV for two within 30 seconds of ordering that drive on your Smartphone. If you need to go 300 miles non-stop for one person you may have to order it 30 minutes in advance etc. You get the vehicle for the job and that is what will make the transportation service very affordable apart from not having to pay a driver of cause. People living in thinly populated areas will prefer to own their own autonomous car simply to save time ordering that transportation that would otherwise take longer to arrive. I bet Tesla will be the first automaker to launch a global transportation service with autonomous Tesla's that can also fuel themselves at Tesla's supercharger stations. Each Tesla should easily be able to do about 100,000 miles per year operated as such an autonomous taxi service.
If the old automakers got OTA (over the air) updates like Tesla the time to market could be reduced seriously.
A breakdown on vehicle type would be useful. I am sure that Tesla owners are not unhappy with their BEV.
Of the 103 Gw of renewable power capacity that was installed in 2014 about 40Gw was solar panels and another 51Gw came from wind turbines leaving 14Gw for other kinds of renewables. Also note that the average cost of renewable energy in 2014 was about 2.7 billion USD per GW capacity. For comparison new coal power is about 3 billion USD per Gw, new nuclear about 7 billion per Gw and new gas power about 1 billion per Gw. For renewable energy to take over completely we need to cut the cost for solar to about 1 billion USD per Gw and the cost for wind power to 2 billion USD per Gw. Today both wind and solar cost about 2.7 billion per installed Gw but the capacity factor for solar is only 10 to 18% whereas it is 25 to 45% for new wind turbines. By 2035 we could achieve the necessary cost reductions for solar and wind power to make all other energy sources become prohibitively expensive. After that we need another 20 to 30 years to completely transform the global energy systems into renewable solar and wind with all the necessary backup systems to deal with the daily and seasonal intermittencies. Whether this is fast enough to prevent catastrophic global warming from fossils fuel burning I don't know. Hopefully it is. Solar power http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics Wind power http://www.gwec.net/global-figures/graphs/
Tesla expected in their February account announcement that they would deliver 9,500 for Q1, 2015. So just 45 days later they actually delivered 10,030 cars for Q1. Anyway 55% annual growth is much better than the growth by the Volt or the Leaf in Q1, 2015. I expect that by Q4, 2015 Tesla will be the world's largest plug-in manufacturer both by number of cars delivered and (as they currently already are) by the kwh used for the delivered BEVs. Q4 will probably see between 17,000 to 18,000 delivered model s and x. I predict that 2015 and even 2016 will be modest growth years for plug-ins with only Tesla growing fast. Most people are waiting to buy a BEV until they come with longer range (over 150 miles EPA rated and cost less than 40k USD) and that will probably not happen until 2017. However, Nissan cold surprise with something for 2016. After that the growth for BEVs will accelerate and when the first fully autonomous BEVs come in 2020-2025 the market for BEVs will simply explode and transform the entire industry globally.
LG is smaller than both Tesla and Nissan for automotive batteries. Specifically for 2014 total automotive battery production was: Panasonic Tesla: 2.7Gwh (=35,000 Model S* 77kwh (average battery pack size) AESC Nissan: 1.6Gwh LG Chem: 0.9GWh BYD: 0.5GWh Mitsubishi: 0.5GWh See http://ev-sales.blogspot.dk/2015/02/battery-makers-full-year-2014.html So LGs bragging about being number one is marketing BS of the worst kind. They are in fact just 1/3 of Panasonic/Tesla when it comes to automotive battery production. The numbers given above also shows just how colossal the planned 50Gwh factory by Tesla Panasonic and other partners is going to be. At 200 USD per kWh the 50Gwh factory will make 10 billion USD worth of batteries each year.
What would impress me was if Benz said they would make a fully autonomous long-range BEV.
Problem with PHEVs is that they are not cutting edge anymore and really not that interesting. What would be interesting would be to see Benz do a long-range BEV or several different long-range BEV models. That would cut CO2 and other pollutant by 100% when using renewable energy. Benz could also start selling the home owner solar panels, home smart devises and home chargers that enables this 100% reduction in pollution. That is what I expect Tesla is planning to offer in the near future.
Tesla model S 85D is getting 100 MPGe combined. 106 MPGe on highways. So Tesla is twice as efficient as BMWs car in electric mode and it is also more powerful than the BMW with 5.4 sec to 60 MPH. BMW needs to get more serious. Model S is actually more heavy than the BMW. http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=36009
I very much like the idea that private people show who they are and stand for by buying EVs and solar power to say no to pollution and the degradation of our planet and say yes to oil independence and local job creation. That is a statement just as it is a statement to drive a gasser and use electricity from a grid that is far from being clean. However, we are not there yet in terms of costs. Nevertheless, solar power and battery backup is making such statements economically possible for many more people every year as the costs are dropping.
@EP people will still be on the grid. No need for fossil home generators. But during spring and summer the solar panel owner is not going to buy much electricity from the grid. Going off-grid is not the objective here. It is to reduce the annual electricity bill and to do something good for the environment. I also expect Tesla to sell smart items that can control your freezers, garden pumps, heaters etc so that they use electricity when the sun shines and otherwise not unless absolutely needed.
But home owners with solar power do have an incentive to install battery backup. This is because many utilities have started to charge a monthly fee of about 50 USD for allowing the solar panel owner to feed excess electricity into the grid. Investing in a battery means that the solar panel owner can just produce electricity for himself and that battery and thereby skip the monthly feed-in fee. This will of cause also mean that the solar panel owner is not allowed to send electricity back into the grid. Tesla knows this is happening and therefore there will be a huge demand in a few years for solar power battery storage. Therefore, Tesla is planning to manufacture such solar battery backup systems as well on their 50Gwh per year factory. The first such system will be announced later this year.
Tesla currently charges 4250 USD for the Tech Package with Autopilot option which extends the capabilities of Tesla's autopilot system with convenience features like •Traffic-aware cruise control •Lane keeping with automatic steering •Self-parking Tesla also need that highway autopilot feature and a self-parking feature with automatic charging connection. That should come before 2020 at no additional costs.
Harvey elsewhere I read "Delphi estimates it will cost $5,000 to make a vehicle almost fully autonomous by 2019." http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2015/03/13/autonomous-car-prepares-mile-us-road-trip/70313716/
Unfortunately I do not currently have an English source. I agree that the 10 cents for storing 1kwh is still too high. But it is not a complete show stopper either as you would only generate electricity from these heat sinks when no other sources are available. Most of the time probably over 75% during the year there would be enough electricity from solar, wind and battery backup in a country that is 100% powered by solar and wind. Moreover, if you do it in a small scale for a private house owner the freezing air would become useful for air conditioning of the house during the summer where there the heat pump is operating at its maximum. The efficiency is higher than one would expect because it is a heat pump actually sending more than 1 kwh into the heat sink for each kwh used to operate the heat pump. The excess energy is taken from the hot summer air (20 degrees Celsius). It will be more efficient in really hot weather. But there will be heat losses from the sink and the machine room with all the machinery for this to work. The heat sink solution has caught my attention because it is presumably less costly than making hydrogen by electrolysis and pumping that hydrogen down in depleted gas fields for later use in a combined cycle power plant. I also like the idea that it can be deployed anywhere at any scale. I think it is the future until the day come where mankind finally will master fusion energy.
This system by Delphi looks very much like the one that Volvo is developing. Especially the part that enables self-driving on the highway and that is capable of stopping the car should the driver not respond to calls to take over the control of the car. As you can obviously not stop the car on the highway I guess the car must be capable of driving itself to the nearest exit point on the highway and then stop itself at a suitable place after exiting the highway. Hope that these autopilot highway systems can be available by 2020 so that people can start spending their time more productively when driving on the highway. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/02/20150219-volvo.html#more