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@Davemart, Yes, good points. However, the factor was 50% before wind or solar was a significant number. Germany has managed to integrate high percentages of wind power, but OK, their country is smaller. I'd argue that solar tracks air conditioning use, so that relieves some of the intermittent issues of solar. I have not run the numbers on how much storage is needed to avoid adding gas fired turbines to the mix, but smart metering and smart appliances may be able to help avoid shortages during max hours. I would think the biggest concern would be figuring out the probability curve of solar/wind minimum output vs duration - what do you have to prepare for based upon your renewable mix.
Overall US capacity is ~1 TW and annual generation is ~4000 TWh. Since there is ~ 8000 hrs in a year, the overall average capacity factor (if I'm using that term correctly) is ~50%. There must be a lot of idle generating capacity out there to bring the average down to 50%. So when I see that solar's is ~25%, and wind ~30%, it's not actually as bad as it seems.
Best comments I've heard in awhile. (-: There is also the chance that peak oil demand has occured.
@Harvey, No, providing cheap water to people would just encourage people to waste it. It must be priced at a level at which people aren't willing to let it run down the drain while they answer the phone or check their email.
Is it too hard to also state how many hrs/mins these things need to run? 4 hrs vs 15 mins makes a big difference.
They needed a study to figure out that incentives have an impact? I hope the states and feds did at least a preliminary study to figure out the sweet point of incentives before handing them out.
People buy plug-ins despite the dealers, who typically don't know anything about the cars (my experience in Az). They know the car better than the salesperson and are annoyed that the sales person is so ignorant. - my experience.
It does seem like a garbage study. Are they saying the carpool lanes are congested? Then this freeway is screwed up to begin with. Why people put up with LA traffic is beyond me.
Makes the roadster look pretty good.
They do airport terminal buses for one. LAX demo I believe.
A battery is simply a complex gas tank that stores electrical fuel. The electrical fuel costs between 6 cents and 50 cents per KWH. With the driving habits of today's drivers and the need to go 75 to 80 mph for long stretches, that gets us between 2.5 and 3.0 miles per KWH or 2 cents to 20 cents per mile. But the battery (fuel tank) cost dwarfs the kwh cost. Right now, those electrical gas tanks costs more than the car. It is good to try alternative paths until the batteries can come down in price.
I hope the next gen is noteworthy. 25 million gallons is about 1/2 million barrels of oil, which we in the US consume in about one hour. Not much but a good trend to begin with.
500 Wh/liter when coupled with 4.0 miles/KWh means: 16 gallons (3.8 liters/gallon) of batteries would yield 0.500 * 3.8 * 4.0 * 16 = 121 miles ho hum
At least the idea is to reduce GHG emissions. Many think we will have to actively capture CO2 to fix the problem in the near future. This may turn into a huge jobs program.
Must be a great time to be an engineer at the car companies. It must be a breath of fresh air to actually work on drive train features. Still, I won't touch a GM car. Too many pieces just break prematurely, and with them adding new things, it's just one more thing to break. Hybrids don't have this issue with start stop as the software is already there with the help of an electric motor to take care of the indecision to actually stop or keep going.
I hope they know how to control quality. If quality goes down as their volume ramps, they will be creating a maintenance nightmare.
Herman, I'd click the LIKE button on your post if they had one to click. Good points.
Follow Buffet's lead and buy some BYD stock. Ticker BYDDY. Seems less risky than buying TSLA at $200 / share. But you never know. If you believe in BYD, then you have a chance to own some in the $10 range. Time will tell if they can mass produce these as well as Tesla.
@Herman - translation for Harvey's predictions: They should be annotated by " ... , I hope." If there is any quantitative reasoning going into his predictions, he does not share it. Take them all as qualitative "hopes."
Prius has better trunk space for those customers hauling suitcases.
@Harvey and Kelly: Show your math.
@HealthyBreeze - I don't think he heard you, but thanks for asking. Here is a more scientific prediction: in a few hundred million years, the sun will begin to expand and boil off the oceans. Any life forms still on the planet will be dead.
I was hoping they'd give the Prius some mpg competition. Looks like Toyota optimized the Prius pretty well. Glad to see another entrant, but they are late to market and offer no reason to switch, unless they price their cars a thousand or two below the Prius.
It would be nice to know what the current efficiencies are and what this device actually delivers.