This is Gasbag's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Gasbag's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Recent Activity
That would actually be about 1.5 times the cost of utility solar if you don’t factor in the added cost of distribution that a centralized solution requires. I don’t mind paying a little extra to set our energy course. The investments we made in wind power Decades ago are paying big dividends to locales more suited to wind energy like TX, OK, IA, IL, etc.
“Libtec hopes to develop a solid-state battery that doubles the range of electric vehicles to 800 km (497 miles) by 2030 ” That is a silly and largely worthless goal that can be achieved today if desired. The time frame they set for their goal is laughable. The industry is already advancing faster then their goal so it would appear their objective is to slow the pace of advancement. Good luck with that.
I believe those are EPA estimates but no it won’t charge quickly.....unless you consider three hours at home quick. They are going to use NMC-811 batteries so don’t expect them to impress anyone with their charge rates.
Can you provide a link as to where you got that info Harvey? All three cities already have H fueling stations. Implied is that it costs ~$90k per vehicle for fueling infrastructure? Would that mean ~$70k cost per LDV and ~$20k for fuel and maintenance ?
I lost? You mean you have no retort and concede ? I think you have confused my posts with someone else’s. Scroll back and re-read to clear your confusion.
32 million for 180 vehicles is about $175k per. I’d like to see what is included in that budget. Even including operating costs Teslas (pick your model) would be more cost effective.
I didn’t say they don’t last but the NREL report did say some last less than 500 hous.True fact in the NREL report. Now although that is entirely true it is as silly and a misrepresentation as pretending that because a FCEB plant lasted over 25,000 hours (after being transplanted and receiving an overhaul) is typical. The reality in The report is that the average is a tad below 15,000 hours. Why try to pull the wool over peoples eyes? Why not just call like it is?
Claiming FC’s last with anecdotal evidence is also hot air. Last time I checked NREL’s annual report for buses they were still coming up short of manufacturer’s claims. If you rely on manufacturer’s press releases you’ll have an unrealistic perspective.
Correction. It looks like China only has 350,000.
In contrast China has about 500,000 battery electric busses.
No mention of them factoring in the move to NMC-811 from NMC-622 meaning half the cobalt. Spot prices have been increasing for years yet the trend of cheaper batteries continues unabated.
Research grants? Practical results by 2025 maybe 2030? Sounds like they are further behind than expected. They don’t seem to realize that they are on the clock.
It may take considerably longer to charge in extreme cold. It still takes too long to charge in ideal conditions and will be on the expensive side but with incentives it should be a good option for multi vehicle households.
Late 2019/early 2020? Sounds like they could be waiting on NMC811. The 260kW is interesting. Here in California it is common for buses to be limited to 60 MPH for insurance reasons. For a vehicle this size with a load not to exceed 12,000 lbs that extra power would only come into playing steep hills and highway acceleration. Perhaps Navistar has other applications for this platform.
That’s a pretty low bar they’ve set for themselves. They are expected to sell over 100k of the e-Power this year with just the Note and Serena which are only available in Japan.if they were available in the US and EU they could sell 300k. Between the Leaf and e-NV200 they’ll sell 200k BEVs this year. As Harvey points out the other half could come from China.
A bit pricey at €69,500 but at least it is being built.
“Why rebates/subsidies vary so much (1.4% to 32.8%) from one area to another?” The subsidies per vehicle don’t vary that much. It is the number of eligible vehicles purchased per county that varies a lot. That varies with population and disposable income levels. The FCEV subsidies offered by the feds per vehicle for FCEVs exceed those offered by the state + feds for BEVs. The first challenge for a buyer is getting someone to sell or lease an FCEV in NY. The second challenge is having a place to refuel an FCEV. I believe the feds are plan to use some of the surplus tax dollars from California to pay for 12 H stations on the East coast. the third challenge might be the extreme cold. Some stacks have limitations on the temperatures they are warrantied to operate in.
That quote is copied from a prior post which hasn’t been removed by the mod and is still visible. I wasn’t implying that that Ballard can’t produce stacks of almost any output. It was more that they aren’t able to find buyers in significant quanties for the stacks other than as range extenders. In fact even the majority of the higher output stacks may be used as range extenders. See link below.
“My point was that aside from the token sales of the 90s 60s the 30s are the only ones being purchased.” Did you miss that Davenart? Or does it require further explanation? The word sell has multiple meanings but in my context I did not mean to offer for sale. I meant to complete transactions in quantity exceeding that of a pilot project. The 30kW versions meet that. The 60 and 90 do not. Ballard tends to omit significant details of interest in their blurbs so one is typically forced to find multiple sources. Which is what I’ve done. The first was a 2016 blurb on the 30 units of the 90kW versions sold. The next was a more detailed blurb from Chinese source that detailed an order of 300 units of 60 and 30 kW units for buses. Ballard had a corresponding announcement but it omitted useful details. The third was a 2018 announcement that 500 30kW units will be sold for city trucks in China. Sorry but i’ve Been unable to re-locate the 2017 Chinese blurb which actually had some details.
“Perhaps you should check before making claims.” I’m well aware that Ballard has the 90 kW version as well as the 60 and 30 kW versions. And technically they sold 30 of the 90kw version to China for use in buses. China agreed to buy 300 additional but Ballard had to offer them as 60 and 30 kW versions and about 90% of those 300 were the 30kW versions. China deployed 300k Battery electric buses to go along with the 330 FCEBs. China is now re-focusing on trucks and Ballard sold 500 of the 30kW FCs for city trucks. I’m sure you’re aware that 30kW is pretty close to the equivalent of the range extender for the BMW i3 or about 40HP. My point was that aside from the token sales of the 90s 60s the 30s are the only ones being purchased. I think it is great that China is throwing a life line to Ballard but if I were at Ballard i’d Be a little concerned about China’s history of not respecting IP.
The 30kW version is the only one Ballard is able to sell for transportation. That is about the right size for a LDV range extender.
“Toyota for instance telling us that they will take out 3/4 of the cost of a fuel cell stack by around 2020 compared to when the Mirai was introduced.” Per Wikipedia the Mirai was introduced in 2014. Per BNEF’s survey the industry average price per kWh was $540 in 2015 and $209 in 2017. 3/4 of $540 is $135. The extrapolated price and projected prices for batteries are well below $135 per kWh for 2020 and that is an industry average versus one vendor. We’re not even taking into account the additional challenges of sustainable H production and distribution or a sustainable business model. Looking at it from s different perspective the DOE projected in 2016 that if 500,000 FCs were produced annually the price would be about $53 per kW or half of what they projected in 2006. BNEF had the price of batteries dropping by about half from 2010 to 2015 ($1,000-$540.) If the future belonged to one or the other it would be batteries over HFC but that is a false choice. In reality the advancement of Batteries is good news for HFCs as improved batteries are almost a preRequiste for HFCEVs. HFC’s future in transportation is as a range extender. The Hyundai Nexo increased their battery from 1.5 kWh to 40 kWh and decreased their FC stack. They make no mention of adding a plug because they need test results of the FC but one can easily see by simply adding a plug most Nexo miles could be driven on electrons from the grid. That could reduce the H needed by 95% meaning the H infrastructure is much less of an issue. It also means the cost of H isn’t a problem because so little of it would be used. The FC stack can also be reduced significantly further reducing the price.
Their problem is that batteries are advancing faster than FCs. Battery prices are falling fast enough that BEVs are on pace to be mainstream by 2021. We’re about two years from the knee in the S curve.
These cheap CNTs could make the 15x Li Air batteries a reality then so in the future our theoretical cheap syn fuels can compete with our theoretical cheap batteries. With the cost of batteries dropping over 20% per year in the real world neither fore mentioned tech has time to waste.
Actually it said 3x over batteries. It didn’t say best currently available batteries. For military applications money is no object so this is a good match. When your local hobby shop has these available we can see how close they are to being main stream.