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albert
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What if the team in question has an 87.5% chance of winning each game (7 out of 8). What are the odds for that team to win every single game in an 82 game season? My guess is that it is just over 1%. I came up with 7 out of 8 by looking at the record of the Jordan, Pippen, Rodman led Bulls 72-10 season Posted by: CyrusTheVirus | November 02, 2009 at 09:29 PM 87.5%^82 = 0.0018%
What do you think of the Heat and their Defense resurgence? Posted by: just saying... | November 02, 2009 at 07:11 PM It's awesome. It was painful watching us getting burned by all those 3s last year. I hope we can maintain it through tougher parts of our schedule.
If the odds of winning every game is 50%... The odds of going 2 for 2: 50%^2 = 25% The odds of going 3 for 3: 50%^3 = 12.5% The odds of going 82 for 82: 50%^82 = 0.000000000000000000000021%
Well no statistically it still gets lower when you look at the broader picture. If you plot number of games won in a row vs population of teams, as the winning streak increases the population of teams decreases. Posted by: Chris | November 02, 2009 at 06:51 PM Statistically, just saying is actually correct. What has happened in the past does not impact the odds for what happens next (i.e., if a coin lands on heads 5 times in a row, the odds are still 50%/50% on the next flip). I believe Chris' point is that over time, the percentages will regress toward 50% (i.e., if you flip a coin 100 times, the odds are it will land on heads 50 times). But if you've flipped the coin 10 times already and it landed on heads all 10 times, the odds would say that the coin will land on heads 45 of the next 90 times (or 55% total). Make sense?
don't you think a player of Wade's caliber would naturally test the market and see if he can get more money while moving to a more successful team, or play for an improved team? Don't forget his player option is 17 million (I think), whereas he witnessed O'Neal play for 20 million, JO play for 23 million... Posted by: Jolano13 | November 02, 2009 at 02:05 PM Interestingly, if Wade opts out he will make less money next year if he signs a new max contract ($16.6 million) than if he accepts his player option ($17.1 million). He will likely opt out anyway, though, so that he can lock in a max contract under the current CBA.
According to the same ESPN link, Joel Anthony and Jamaal Magloire have a no trade clause this season because a trade would cause them to lose their Bird rights... so keep that in mind when playing with the trade machine. Posted by: CyrusTheVirus | October 31, 2009 at 09:37 PM Magloire and Anthony can actually be traded, but any trade requires their consent. According to the CBA, teams must receive consent to trade a player with a 1-year contract who will acquire Bird rights at the end of the contract. If he consents to the trade and is traded, he loses his Bird rights.
This is assuming we keep Wade right? Because otherwise we only have two players under contract going into next year, which would give us like $40m to spend. Posted by: ReppingNZ | October 31, 2009 at 08:29 PM Yes. Dwyane Wade: $17.1 million (will go down to $16.6 million if the Heat signs him to a max contract) Michael Beasley: $5.0 million James Jones: $1.9 million buyout Daequan Cook: $2.2 million Total: $26.1 million If the Heat picks up the Mario Chalmers team option, the 2010/11 team salary would increase to $27.0 million
How do you know this stuff? Posted by: HeatDolphans#1 | October 31, 2009 at 06:37 PM I've read through the CBA and I track all player contracts. I use the information to help answer peoples' salary cap related questions. The Nets have $22.0 million in committed 2010/11 salary The Heat have $26.1 million in committed 2010/11 salary The Knicks have $27.3 million in committed 2010/11 salary
The Heat will have the third most money in 2010.http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-091030-31 Posted by: HeatDolphans#1 | October 31, 2009 at 06:17 PM Despite the article, the Heat actually have the 2nd most cap space available. The Heat's $26.1 million in committed salary is actually $1.2 million less than the Knicks.
Its because neither was caught, but because Beasley not only was in the room but tried to hide. Oh, and that we is under different rules because of his age! Posted by: SlIedge | October 31, 2009 at 05:58 PM The NBA fined Chalmers $20,000 and Beasley $50,000 for the September 2008 marijuana-related incident. The league said Beasley was fined a larger amount because he initially failed to cooperate in the investigation. Beasley's enrollment in a marijuana program could most likely be explained by a failed drug test.
Why didn't Chalmers enroll in the drug program? Posted by: no doubt | October 31, 2009 at 04:11 PM According to the provisions of the CBA, in the event there is reasonable cause to believe that a player has taken marijuana (including a rookie up to 3 months prior to his entry into the NBA), he can be tested. If he fails the test, he is automatically enrolled in the marijuana program. The most logical explanation for why Chalmers was not enrolled in the program was because he did not fail a drug test.
wow, I thought we had more money to work with. That's another max, maybe, but not a 2nd tier FA w/ him. Posted by: GodsSon521 | October 31, 2009 at 01:11 PM Perhaps the best way to think of it is that the Heat have $26.1 million of committed salary next season (assuming JJ is bought out). The cap space the Heat will have is equal to whatever the cap is minus $26.1 million.
How did I get salmons? Not sure, maybe we can sign and trade them say a boozer and a pick for kirk and salmons. The bulls have long neglected that inside scorer spot, tho I like what I aw from Taj Gibson. Posted by: kbboy80 | October 31, 2009 at 01:47 PM Salmons has an ETO after this season. If he opts out, the Heat can simply sign him as an unrestricted free agent. He is scheduled to make $5.8 million in 2010/11.
the heat pick up chalmers option yet? i only know of beasley and cook. Posted by: hotleo20 | October 30, 2009 at 05:17 PM The Heat have until next June 25 to pick up Chalmers' option. The option year of first round draft picks must be picked up October 31 of the prior season The option year of players who would become restricted free agents must be picked up June 25 The option year of all other players must be picked up June 30
Magloire suspended for two games for his role in the Jerebko fight. Interestingly, this actually reduces the Heat's luxury tax bill by $7,500...
yeah, i understand that bias. i like beasley too... i just don't see riley keeping beasley in a heat uniform if he has the ability to trade him for Bosh/Stoudemire. i think that's why he's being tested at the SF position. i think riley's perspective is that beasley is simply too undersized at the PF spot (whether that is correct or not is for us all to decide individually). thanks for the feedback though...
just putting it out there... my thoughts on salmons are that he's an excellent perimeter defender at the SF position (who has the added benefit that he shoots a high % from 3pt range and can slash to the hoop... exactly what the heat needs at the position, at a reasonable price). Defensively, Hinrich/Wade/Salmons would be among the best backcourt in basketball... while Stoudemire/Haywood would be one the biggest and most physical front lines. Offensively, you'd have Wade's slashing ability coupled with excellent spot up outside shooters in Hinrich/Salmons. In the interior, you'd have one of the most dominant PFs in basketball coupled with Haywood's offensive rebounding. Just my thoughts...
How about this pipe dream scenario? If Stoudemire or Bosh becomes available at the trade deadline... 1. Trade Beasley/Haslem/Wright and a first round draft pick for Stoudemire or Bosh 2. Trade Q Rich for Kirk Hinrich (Bulls clear off an unwanted bad contract) 3. Use the $4.4M trade exception to sign a backup PF (from a team who needs the cap space) 4. In the next draft, sign whatever 1st rd pick the Heat chooses (the Heat will have two 2nd rd picks also) 5. Next offseason, re-sign D Wade 6. In free agency next offseason, sign John Salmons to an MLE contract 7. In free agency next offseason, sign Brendan Haywood to a BAE contract Making the lineup for the 2010/11 season: 1. Kirk Hinrich (Mario Chalmers) 2. Dwyane Wade (Daequan Cook) 3. John Salmons (James Jones) 4. Amare Stoudemire (quality backup PF, making $5M) 5. Brendan Haywood (Jamaal Magloire) Bench: First round draft pick, second round draft pick, min contract player This team would be very possible under the salary cap rules (however unlikely in reality) and would only cost about $67 million next season, which will most definitely be below the luxury tax threshold
The Heat will have four total picks in next year's draft: 1. Miami's own first round pick 2. Toronto's first round pick if they make the playoffs OR their second round pick if they miss the playoffs 3. Miami's own second round pick 4. New Orleans' second round pick
Posted by: JGtruth | September 17, 2009 at 06:18 PM Boston can utilize their Bird rights to give Rondo up to a max contract for a player with under 6 years of experience. The actual amount will be determined when the cap is set next year. I am currently projecting it at about $12.6MM.
Posted by: hotleo20 | September 17, 2009 at 06:12 PM Wade ($16.6MM), Dalambert ($13.0MM), Rondo ($10.0MM), Howard ($10.0MM), Jones ($4.6MM) and Haslem ($4.5MM) would already command $58.7MM of 2010/11 cap space.
no problem chris. thought i saw something about a dalembert sign-and-trade. carry on...
if you let me know the trades/signings you are suggesting, i'm happy to let you know if it's possible...
Tyler, Just to clarify, I don't presume to know at all what Bosh is thinking. My point is always just to answer any mathematical and/or Collective Bargaining Agreement questions people may have (in an effort to help others to form their own opinions)...
Purely based on a mathematical calculation, if I were Bosh's agent I would advise him to choose Miami (for all of the reasons you've brought up and several others). From a completely biased Miami-fan perspective, I would also advise him to choose Miami.