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Sylvain Vervoort
Retired electronics engineer
Recent Activity
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Last week I wrote: "A bit as expected, closing the week higher, reaching the last current Fibonacci target and the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. As I mentioned last week, we lost the negative divergence and we now have a convergent move between the SRSI indicator and the index. Basically this means we should now expect a short term reaction for the last wave up and not yet a longer term reaction. I estimate that a reaction of some 60 points can be expected, maybe after a further small move up. Please read my comments on the weekly... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "Closing the week some one percent higher. If the index turns down now, we have another negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the Stochastic RSI indicator with lower tops. On the other hand there seems to be room for at least another 20 points up move. If that happens the negative divergence will disappear. I see different Fibonacci targets, some point to the current level and some go about 20 points higher. It looks like we have to follow up, waiting for a long term reversal. Please read my comments on the weekly... Continue reading
Posted Feb 19, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "There was a gap down on Monday and a gap up on Friday. The result, the week is closing just a fraction higher. Price is at the top of the BBS band and reaches a Fibonacci target. Additionally we should expect resistance from the R1 pivot of the month. What to expect next week? Looking at the monthly and weekly chart I would say probably the start of the move down however, on this daily chart this is not very clear. We have to follow up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly... Continue reading
Posted Feb 11, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "Wednesday there was a gap up breaking the resistance of the R1 pivot level of the month, creating another higher high. I keep believing we are at a long term top. Price is near the top of the volatility channel. The last tops and bottoms are a convergent move between the index and the indicators. This is mostly the case when you are looking at a correction move, which is not the case here, or is it perhaps that exaggerated? I expect a closure of the gap the coming week. Price is far away from all... Continue reading
Posted Feb 5, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "We got a nice copy of the week before, be it with one less trading day. Very small moves and again a slightly lower closing of the week. The index remains at the Fibonacci target, trying to get past the R1 pivot of the month. There is no clear sign where the index is going to be next week. My best guess is that we are at a long term top, even if the index would close a bit higher, long term we should expect at least a larger correction. I prefer to be short, be... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "Very limited moves the past week and closing only a few points lower. The index remains at the Fibonacci target, fighting the resistance of the R1 pivot of the month. The index is also at the upper side of the BBS band and the volatility channel. There may be a double top, but it has to be confirmed. It looks like there is a negative divergence coming up with a higher index top and a lower indicator top. We are more or less at the same point as last week. I am waiting for a first... Continue reading
Posted Jan 22, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "A new higher top, to celebrate the start of 2017? On this daily chart the index reaches the R1 pivot resistance for the Month of January. A bull-trap or a further continuation of the up move? I still expect a down reaction, only hard to see if it will happen the coming week. It looks like the index and the SRSI indicator will form a negative divergence, probably the coming week. But again, no guarantee! My best guess is a move down toward 2200 the coming weeks. However, if the index is not turning down the... Continue reading
Posted Jan 15, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Last week I wrote: "The last week of 2016 started a reaction down, most probably confirming the doji reversal signal in the weekly chart. The index is falling back to the median line of the up moving pitchfork from the top of the volatility channel. The indicators are moving down. I expect there will be a further down move the coming weeks. First target is around 2200, a price support level, the low side of the volatility channel and back to the averages. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view."... Continue reading
Posted Jan 7, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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Two weeks ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "The next closest target for the coming week is a Fibonacci projection around 2272." There was a very small reaction on Monday but, Tuesday the index reached the target at 2272. Once this point was reached, a reaction started in first instance to the support of the R1 pivot level of the month. Indicators are turning down and there is a negative divergence between the index and the stochastic RSI. With the doji now in the weekly chart we have one more indication that a down reversal may be started. We... Continue reading
Posted Jan 1, 2017 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "I am clearly forgetting that we are coming very close to the end of 2016. Usually prices stay high because fund managers want to close the year with a good report. Meaning no down reaction for the moment. Contrary we should expect more higher prices the next couple of weeks. The next closest target for the coming week is a Fibonacci projection around 2272. I do expect a small reaction first. We will probably see higher prices until the end-of-the-year. However, medium term I still expect a larger correction, be careful! You should read my... Continue reading
Posted Dec 18, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "As expected, the short term reaction started the past week. For the coming week(s) I expect a further reaction down toward following targets: the PP pivot level of the current month, the 50 and 100 simple moving average and previous price support around 2155. Possibly this will be a small 123 correction wave. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view." I am clearly forgetting that we are coming very close to the end of 2016. Usually prices stay high because fund managers want to close... Continue reading
Posted Dec 11, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "We have a new long term top with wave 3.14 in the weekly chart. In the daily chart we reach the upper side of the volatility channel. We should expect some retracement. However, we can expect a higher top after a short term correction in the daily chart. The next up target is around 2350. A correction now will probably move towards the 50 and 100 average and price support around 2155. On the other hand we are close to long term targets so, we must be prepared for a long term correction. Read my... Continue reading
Posted Dec 3, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Last week, I expected a pullback, but the market closed a bit higher and reached the resistance of the R2 pivot point of the month. This is also a Fibonacci target. I see a convergent move between the index and the SVESRSI indicator. Mostly this means that the last move is a correction and that the price will continue the previous move down. First targets are the R1 (2160) and PP pivot (2140) levels. Personally I am still avoiding longer term long positions. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for my... Continue reading
Posted Nov 27, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "As I wrote last week: "In normal circumstances, I would expect some retracement now. However, with the Presidential Elections on Tuesday, it is very unpredictable. We must expect a very volatile market." What would happen in normal circumstances came with some exaggerated retracement after a political historical fact, probably nobody was expecting. The same with the volatile market, it only lasted a few hours. I think next week there will be a pullback down, probably to the level of the PP pivot of the month. Looking more than one week ahead is my opinion not... Continue reading
Posted Nov 19, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "From a purely technical analysis point of view, I rather expect the index to break the support moving further down. There is certainly much resistance for a move up." Moreover, yes, as expected, all days of the week were negative, closing the week at 2085. The index now reaches the S2 pivot support of the month, the low side of the volatility channel, the low side of a new down moving pitchfork and a Fibonacci target. In normal circumstances, I would expect some retracement now. However, with the Presidential Elections on... Continue reading
Posted Nov 12, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: " The index finds now resistance from previous price levels, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, and the 100-day average. This resistance is probably enough to stop the up correction, and we may expect a further move down, in the first instance to the last low around 2115." The index came close to this level on Friday, but could not break the support at this level. The index may stay within the smaller trading range the coming week, waiting for the Presidential Elections. From a purely technical analysis point of view, I rather... Continue reading
Posted Nov 5, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: " At this level, there is price support, support from the low side of the volatility channel, the low side of the up moving pitchfork and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This support may create some up retrace the coming week." That is what happened and the week is closing higher. The index finds now resistance from previous price levels, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, and the 100-day average. This resistance is probably enough to stop the up correction, and we may expect a further move down, in the first instance to... Continue reading
Posted Oct 29, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "It looks like the index broke the shorter term trading range reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level on Thursday with the low price of the day. At this level there is price support, support from the low side of the volatility channel, the low side of the up moving pitchfork and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This support may create some up pullback the coming week. There is room for a further move down, so medium term, we must expect a continuation of the move down. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly... Continue reading
Posted Oct 22, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "As expected, the index remains in a small trading range, bouncing between previous index low levels and the 50 day moving average on the upper side and inside the BBS channel. I do not expect big changes the coming weeks. Rather a flat move towards the 100 day average while the US Presidential elections are some 4 weeks away. Long term I still expect a continuation of the down move. Read my comments with the weekly chart and monthly chart for the longer term view." It looks like the index broke the shorter term trading... Continue reading
Posted Oct 15, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "The first down target 2150, I mentioned last week, was reached on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday closed the Monday gap. Thursday there was another move down once more reaching the 2150 target, but Friday there as another move up to the upper side of the small trading range, closing the week around the same level as the week before. The index remains close to the highest top of August. With the US Presidential elections November 8, we should not exclude a new higher high. However as I mentioned before I do not expect a continuation... Continue reading
Posted Oct 9, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "The last support, the 100 day average and the S2 pivot support of the previous week was not broken. Contrary, Wednesday and Thursday there were higher index levels. A further move up was stopped by a previous price gap, the 50 day average, the upper side of the BBS band and the PP pivot level of the month. Friday there was a turn down, covering a previous price gap. If the index will continue the medium and long term down move, next week will have to show lower prices. Targets are 2150, 2120 and 2100.... Continue reading
Posted Oct 1, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "Basically we should expect some pullback..." This pullback was there already on Monday with a retrace to the 50 day average. However, low prices the following days reached each time the previous low side finding support at the S2 pivot, the 100 day average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. It may take some more days to break this support. Possibly it will be broken already the coming week. Next down targets are the 50% retrace of the last up wave 3.24, the low side of the up moving pitchfork, the S3... Continue reading
Posted Sep 25, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "There was just enough power to bring the index some 20 points higher to the upper side of the BBS band the first half of the week. Thursday there was a small reaction and Friday a big black candle down, some 3% lower compared to the top price of the week. This breaks the trading range, now finding support at the low side of the volatility channel, a Fibonacci target and retrace level, the S2 pivot support, previous price resistance now giving support and the 200 day average. Basically we should expect some pullback. We... Continue reading
Posted Sep 18, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that the index is still in a consolidation phase moving flat. What will be next? Should we expect higher or lower prices the coming weeks? From a technical point of view, not easy to see signs in one or the other direction. On the other hand, long term, weekly and monthly charts, I rather expect a long term down reversal. I expect only a very limited up potential. I therefore would close open long positions, but probably wait for some confirmation to go short." There was just... Continue reading
Posted Sep 10, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog
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A week ago I wrote: "Before we can say that the downtrend is started, we need the index at least below the last small bottom towards 2140. But the past week the index may have giving a first push down. Friday we saw an attempt to push the index above the last top, but that did not happen. Instead the index fell below a three weeks low. I do expect a further move down towards the low side of the volatility channel, the 50 day average, the PP pivot level of the month and the median line of the up... Continue reading
Posted Sep 3, 2016 at Traders' Library Blog