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Carley Garner
Las Vegas NV
Author, Analyst, Broker, Stocks & Commodities Magazine Columnist
Interests: Family, friends, working out, markets
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. September 15, 2011 Buy Carley Garner's books and DVD's on Traders' Library! There are plenty of reasons as to why traders should be bearish Treasuries but the most glaring being nearly non-existent interest rates and stabilizing currency and equity markets. Nonetheless, Treasury seasonals suggest the market could avoid any large selling until much later this fall. Also, although recent economic data has been better than the previous month's it is still generally below expectations and quite frankly, poor. Similarly, it sounds as if a much... Continue reading
Posted Sep 15, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. September 15, 2011 Buy Carley Garner's books and DVD's at Traders Library!! We had a feeling the shorts would be feeling the pain this week as the market squeezed them into the September expiration; trade didn't disappoint. Except perhaps for those on the wrong side of things (possibly UBS rogue trader Kweka Adobili?). Just when it looked like the world was coming to an end, the December S&P rallied approximately 80 handles from the Monday morning lows to the Thursday night highs. As good as... Continue reading
Posted Sep 15, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. August 26, 2011 FREE Registration for the Futures and FOREX Expo in Las Vegas September 22nd through 24th. DeCarley's Carley Garner will be speaking on currency trading! Buy Carley's books and DVD's at www.TradersLibrary.com! Treasury futures move higher on options expiration In today's world, bad news is good news...as long as it isn't "fall of the cliff" type of bad news. Many seemed to sigh in relief this morning on news that the GDP was revised lower to 1.0%. Six months ago this would have... Continue reading
Posted Aug 26, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. August 26, 2011 FREE Registration for the Futures and FOREX Expoin Las Vegas September 22nd through 24th. DeCarley's Carley Garner will be speaking on currency trading! Buy Carley's books and videos at www.TradersLibrary.com! As we expected, Bernanke did not deliver what the market (thought) it wanted...another round of stimulus. Also as we thought might be the case, after a knee-jerk reaction to the downside traders realized that if the Fed has enough confidence to let the markets stand on its own two feet (at least... Continue reading
Posted Aug 26, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. August 19th, 2011 Get social with DeCarley Trading, LIKE us on facebook and follow us on Twitter! Buy Carley Garner's books on www.TradersLibrary.com Bearish activity in Treasury futures options! There weren't any economic releases to guide trade, so it was all about Europe. Unfortunately, the Euro zone seems to have moved from a state of fear to a state of panic and once the global cycle of volatility gets started, it is difficult to turn the momentum around. European shares were down 2 to 4%... Continue reading
Posted Aug 19, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. August 19th, 2011 Get social with DeCarley Trading, LIKE us on facebook and follow us on Twitter! Buy Carley Garner's books on www.traderslibrary.com Jackson Hole repeat for stock index futures? Stock index futures continue to be plagued with massive volatility and what seems to be a "buyers strike". Despite several attempts at rallies, traders simply weren't willing to hold large equity positions into the weekend. Adding to market volatility was expiration of the August options. The global financial markets have fallen into a vicious circle... Continue reading
Posted Aug 19, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
For what it is worth...here is my two cents: High frequency trading has certainly impacted the markets and the way prices fluctuate. For instance, in many cases the added liquidity could mean better fill quality but in other circumstances it might mean larger price swings. Humans have a tendency to look at change in a negative context; however, I'm not convinced the overall impact is either positive or negative...just different. In my opinion, traders should focus on how and where the market is going rather than why or how it is getting there. Traders are, in essence, competing with all other market participants; whether it be an algo-trading system, a specialist on the trading floor or someone clicking a mouse in their pajamas. In my opinion, it is naive to assume that it is possible to completely level the playing field. Even if high frequency traders were banned from the marketplace, there will almost always be somebody, or some entity, that will have more resources and knowledge than you. For instance, Warren Buffet isn't a high frequency trader but he certainly has the means to conduct fundamental research better than the rest of us. Similarly, someone standing on the floor of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) or the CBOE will probably have some sort of informational advantage. In previous decades, it was the traders standing in futures pits or on the floor of the stock exchange that had the undeniable advantage and, unfortunately for them, that is no longer the case. As markets have moved toward electronic and over-the-counter trading, the "edge" has simply shifted away from floor brokers/market makers and toward high frequency traders; once again, I don't believe the market is any better or worse off, it is just different....and investors must learn to adjust accordingly. Carley Garner www.DeCarleyTrading.com cgarner@decarleytrading.com
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. Buy Carley Garner's books and DVD's at TradersLibrary.com! June 10th, 2011 Join us for Part II of Getting Started in Currency Trading online seminar June 16th, at 3:30 Central, click here for free registration! Treasury dilemma: Debt Crisis vs. Safety Investors are seeking quality, but with talk of defaults and debt ceilings, Treasuries just aren't the stellar attraction of "fear money" they once were. At the trough of equity trade in Friday' session, the long bond was treading water near 126, which was a gain... Continue reading
Posted Jun 10, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. Buy Carley Garner's books and DVD's on TradersLibrary.com! June 10, 2011 Join us for Part II of Getting Started in Currency Trading online seminar June 16th, at 3:30 Central, click here for free registration! Bears maul stock index futures bulls but will it last? Yesterday's sharp short covering rally appeared to be the beginning of the end of the correction, but that theory proved to be inaccurate. After what has been one of the longest (but not the deepest) corrections in the last decade, the... Continue reading
Posted Jun 10, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. May 27, 2011 Check out the latest "Futures for You" column in Stocks & Commodities Magazine, click here to read!! Purchase Carley Garner's books and videos at TradersLibrary.com!! Stock index futures set up for more short squeezing? Suddenly financial news websites and business news television is focused on the lack of a recovery and today's data delivered even more bad news. Just when it seemed the housing market couldn't get any worse, it does. Pending home sales dropped 11.6% after rising 5.1% last month despite... Continue reading
Posted May 27, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. May 26, 2011 Check out the latest "Futures for You" column in Stocks & Commodities Magazine, click here to read!! Purchase Carley Garner's books and videos on TradersLibrary.com !! Bonds and notes rallied moderately sharply in the face of higher equities and lower safe havens (greenback and gold). There seems to be a transformation in market psychology and more importantly psychology. In the coming days we will know if the timid trade in Treasuries or the risk on trade was the right call. In the... Continue reading
Posted May 26, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. May 20, 2011 Check out the latest "Futures for You" column in Stocks & Commodities Magazine, click here to read!! Buy Carley Garner's book on TradersLibrary.com! Stock indices "iffy" at these levels Option expiration Friday in the stock indices and Treasuries, made for a relatively volatile intraday session. Some of the weakness is being attributed to slides in clothing retailers that have suffered at the hands of a volatile cotton market but a more likely culprit is the fresh S&P downgrade of Greece debt. It... Continue reading
Posted May 20, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. May 20, 2011 Check out the latest "Futures for You" column in Stocks & Commodities Magazine, click here to read!! Buy Carley's book on TradersLibrary.com! New highs in Treasuries? Option expiration in Treasuries and equities likely contributed to today's trade. Although, it is difficult to say whether it capped what could have potentially been a much larger rally in bonds and notes, or it actually held prices stable. Our gut tells us that it is the former. Gold and silver rallied sharply as flight to... Continue reading
Posted May 20, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
Hi Rick, To answer your question, each trader must determine there own risk tolerance/pain threshold but my rule of thumb is to begin the adjustment process once the collected premium has doubled in value. Unfortunately, trading is an art and not a science so rules such as this should be taken into account on a case by case basis. For instance, if the options under fire are considerably out of the money but have exploded in value due to an excessive spike in volatility, it might do more harm than good to adjust the position. Also, if the double out price is reached just as the futures is testing significant support or resistance, it might not make sense to make a move. Another lesson that traders often learn the hard ways is selling options in the direction of the trend might work for a certain period of time, but when the tide turns it can be difficult to keep adjustments up with market price. For example, strangle traders in gold likely adjusted their calls and puts higher to keep up with the rally only to feel even more pain when the market reversed. Credit spreads offer traders peace of mind, but can often complicate adjustments, or even entry and exit. I presented to a TradersLibrary.com audience on the topic of option spreads and adjusting them, (http://www.invest-store.com/carleygarner/item.php?9778168). If you are a reader, we cover the topic of option spreads in my book "Commodity Options" (http://www.invest-store.com/carleygarner/item.php?9778168). You might also be interested in a webinar we once hosted on the benefits and drawbacks of a credit spread strategy (http://www.decarleytrading.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=204:option-credit-spreads-a-to-z&catid=81:archived-futures-trading-webinars&Itemid=129). I hope this helps, good luck in the markets! Carley Garner **There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options!
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. March 31, 2011 Buy Carley Garner books and DVD's at TradersLibrary.com! Follow me on Twitter @carleygarner! Is the stock index futures putting in blow-off high? * Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software. **Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action. Please note: e-mini... Continue reading
Posted Mar 31, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. March 31, 2011 Follow me on Twitter @carleygarner! Purchase Carley Garner books and Videos at TradersLibrary.com! Treasury futures on hold for non-farm payrolls * Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software. **Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action. Treasury Bond and Note Option... Continue reading
Posted Mar 31, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. March 25, 2011 Follow me on Twitter @carleygarner! Stock index futures climb the wall of worry A higher GDP revision, stable crude oil futures and a lack of any compelling headlines encouraged continued short covering ahead of the weekend. Market mentality is a far cry from what it was just a few weeks ago when traders were reluctant to be long over the weekend, and most speculators (it seemed) wanted to be short the market. We have now gotten back to the "buy on dips"... Continue reading
Posted Mar 25, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. March 25, 2011 Buy Carley Garner's book at TradersLibrary.com! Buy The Option Spread Advantage from TradersLibrary.com! Treasury futures on hold Mixed economic data lead to a relatively mixed session, but selling across Treasuries did show up in afternoon trade. The government's third stab at fourth quarter GDP came in at a respectable growth rate of 3.1%. On the other hand, Michigan Sentiment was reported at a slightly lower than expected 67.5. However, as we all know...it is what consumers do that matters, not necessarily what... Continue reading
Posted Mar 25, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. February 25, 2011 Click here to register for DeCarley's next webinar, Getting Started in Option Selling part II! Buy Carley Garner's Books and DVD's on TradersLibrary.com!! The stock market has made an art out of "blink and you miss it" corrections. Although we had originally thought the dip would extend into the mid-to-high 1270's in the S&P, we've now come to the conclusion that the low 1290's could have been "it". From here it seems the stock indices are poised to make new 2011 highs.... Continue reading
Posted Feb 25, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. February 25, 2011 Click here to register for DeCarley's next webinar, Getting Started in Option Selling part II! By Carley Garner's books and DVD's at www.TradersLibrary.com Ceiling in Treasury futures could get punctured! As mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, stocks and bonds can travel higher together as asset prices of all types are being inflated by the Treasuries cash injections. In today's session, that was exactly what occurred...although the buying in each market is being attributed to different factors and were at differing paces. The buying... Continue reading
Posted Feb 25, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. "Getting Started in Option Selling" with Carley Garner, PFG, and DeCarley Trading on February 10th. Register free here: http://www.pfgbest.com/webinar/Meeting_detail.asp?SCOID=1039861961&FOLDERID=993197377&MEETING_NAME=Getting%20Started%20in%20Option%20Selling January 28th, 2011 Buy Carley's book at TradersLibrary.com! Futures and Options Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading Position Trade - Flat Carley Garner Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker DeCarley Trading cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com 1-866-790-TRADE Local : 702-947-0701 http://twitter.com/carleygarner http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com *Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely. There... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. "Getting Started in Option Selling" with Carley Garner, PFG, and DeCarley Trading on February 10th. Register free here January 27th, 2011 Order Carley's book from TradersLibrary.com! http://www.invest-store.com/carleygarner/item.php?6954333 Political protests (more like riots) in Egypt shook up the financial and commodity markets. Investors flocked from risk and into "stuff" (as Dennis Gartman calls it). In other words, investors put money into hard assets, namely gold and silver. In theory, the move should have triggered a large wave of quality buying in Treasuries but that just wasn't... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2011 at Traders' Library Blog
*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. Purchase Option Trade Advantage DVD by Trader's Library and Carley Garner, click here! Click here to visit the Trader's Library Bookstore. December 29th, 2010 It seems to happen every year...and in fact, we have been noting the holiday grind higher in this newsletter. However, each year it is nearly unbelievable. Traders typically take off this time of year to bask in their glory or mull over their mistakes; nonetheless, they aren't involved in the markets and that tends to favor a melt-up. Almost as common... Continue reading
Posted Dec 29, 2010 at Traders' Library Blog
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. Purchase Option Trade Advantage DVD by Trader's Library and Carley Garner, click here! Click here to visit the Trader's Library Bookstore. December 29th, 2010 After a disappointing showing at yesterday's 5-year note auction, investors had their wallets open for today's $29 billion issuance of 7-year notes. The auction drew a yield of 2.83% (a bit lower than expected), with a bid to cover of 2.86 and a 64.2% participation rate by indirect bidders. This was the highest demand seen for this particular instrument in 2010,... Continue reading
Posted Dec 29, 2010 at Traders' Library Blog
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Purchase Option Trade Advantage DVD by Trader's Library and Carley Garner, click here! December 17th, 2010 Santa Claus came in September for stock market bulls but might but he might be overextending his welcome in the coming weeks. We still "like" the equity markets overall, but with the major indices coming off of a monstrous 2 year rally and with many of them trading near two standard deviations from the mean on long-term charts (monthly) it is hard to believe there won't be some sort of a breather in the near future. Historically, the markets tend to get a January... Continue reading
Posted Dec 17, 2010 at Traders' Library Blog