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Neven
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Yet another destructive hurricane has hit the US, following a highly unusual path, smashing precipitation records all around. Dr Jennifer Francis breaks it down in this excellent video from The Real News Network (please, share): Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
congrats with making the cut on the 4.5 M km2 on the JAXA SIE! Yes, these things are important. ;-) Is there a chart on ASIF of the NSIDC Sept Avg. SIE? I don't think so, but you should be able to find it on the NSIDC site (here for instance).
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm not saying this is it. 10K is not much. A drop of 11-12K tomorrow and you can add at least two more days to the minimum date. But looking at the current forecast, I don't think it will drop much more. If it goes up more than 25K beyond the preliminary minimum, I would call it.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Where does Russell say it isn't allowed. Try reading before shooting off questions? JAXA was offline for two days. Latest data shows it has dipped below 4.5 million km2 on the 17th! It has gone up again by 10K yesterday, so that could very well be it.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I've waited an extra week with this post because I was on a holiday and because the minimum is about to get hit. More on that below, but first a short discussion of the PIOMAS August data. ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Arctic Sea Ice
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A quite spectacular event took place during the past two weeks, and if it had continued for a while longer, I'm sure it would've been reported widely. Good to see that this event got reported, after all, on several news outlets.
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2018 on Circumnavigating Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
Forgot to mention: Professor Eli Rabett posted about this last week (check Zack Labe's Twitter animation). But over on the ASIF we have good eyes as well. We like carrots too.
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2018 on Circumnavigating Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
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A quite spectacular event took place during the past two weeks, and if it had continued for a while longer, I'm sure it would've been reported widely. It's something I've semi-jokingly alluded to when setting up this blog back in 2010, in my third blog post called Dire Straits, and... Continue reading
Posted Aug 13, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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PIOMAS data came in a bit later this month, and I'm a bit later still, but this gives us an opportunity to look at what may happen during the second half of the month. ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph... Continue reading
Posted Aug 13, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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A great article was posted on the Guardian website yesterday, written by Dr John Abraham, in which he highlights research that shows that if it weren't for aerosols, Arctic sea ice loss would've been even greater: Pollution is slowing the melting of Arctic sea ice, for now Human carbon pollution... Continue reading
Posted Aug 4, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, that's for the end of June. Maybe wait with that question until PIOMAS data is updated next week. Although Wipneus did do a mid-month update and said: "The volume and volume-anomaly graphs show the melt in July is higher than most until now". A lot of the zones that are red on the end of June map that Wayne referred to, will probably be gone on the next update. Depending on what happens with the other zones, 2018 could close the gap significantly.
The data that Wayne has, is the work he has done on Extremely High Horizon Refraction (which is the name of his blog). The problem for me, as someone who tries to make things more understandable for a general lay audience, is that it's difficult to explain, partially because I'm somewhat limited scientifically. Wayne, what do you still expect for this melting season? Do you see it getting close to 2012, come September?
In fact, we might be seeing some of the flash melting and detachment that made 2012 legendary. Already happening.
Thanks, Alan, fixed now. There's also a mistake in the melt pond fraction image: The legend is correct for May, but should be ten times higher for June, running from -20 to +20.
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For years we've talked about one of the most fascinating phenomena of Arctic sea ice loss as it progresses from year to year: The moment when the ice disappears regardless of the weather. We've seen some of that, back in July 2012, when extent and area numbers kept going down... Continue reading
Posted Jul 30, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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It will probably be solved this evening.
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
I can't log on to the ASIF. Anyone else experiencing trouble as well?
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
JAXA SIE. It went from second lowest on June 10th, to 10th or 11th one month later. This doesn't apply as much to PIOMAS, I agree, but there too the gap with other years has been slowly increasing. So, relative to other years, melting has been on the whole below average these past few weeks. But this seems to be mostly caused on the periphery, because 2018 still is among the lowest in the 'inner core'. This implies, like you say, that melt will accelerate again (relative to other years). That was the whole point. 2018 may be 10th or whatever on some charts, but it isn't telling the whole story. There's a discussion on the ASIF whether weather conditions need to be more conducive to melt for that to happen ostensibly, or whether there will be a cliff, regardless of the weather. I'm inclined towards the former, but there seems to be a lot of (late) melt ponding and dispersion, so when the weather does switch, this melting season may go a lot lower than the numbers predict right now. No signs of that in the weather forecast as of yet.
Toggle Commented Jul 11, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
The real slowdown - relatively speaking - started around mid-June, so that's a couple of weeks. The point is 'that 2018 isn't far behind at all in those regions that determine the minimum'. If it weren't for the current weather forecast, I would say that the melting season may have some tricks up its sleeve. But the clock is ticking.
Toggle Commented Jul 10, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
There's a big caveat at the end of the post, showing volume and extent/area graphs without the periphery like Hudson Bay.
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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What a coincidence. Just like last month, I will have to precede the PIOMAS update with a short news flash that a very strong cyclone is barreling through the Arctic. But this time too, the cyclone will be short-lived, and so it's not entirely clear whether, on the whole, it... Continue reading
Posted Jul 8, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Thanks, Rob. I fixed the images.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
In 2012 I learned that a good beginning is half the work, as the Dutch say. JAXA is back up. According to an ASIF member: JAXA is back up. July 1st extent is 9,282,553 km^2 putting it 461K behind the record low for that day. It is in 8th place 276K behind 6th. The June decline was just 1,459,260 making it the lowest since 2015 and the third lowest in the Jaxa record since 2003.
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
According to their Twitter feed it's a server problem. Given that other sources using AMSR2 data are still up and up-to-date, I expect it will be solved at some point.
Toggle Commented Jun 28, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Before kicking off this latest PIOMAS update, there's a little piece of information I'd like to share: A massive cyclone is passing through the Arctic right now. The cyclone has bottomed out about half a day ago at 966 hPa, which is slightly lower than the 968 hPa storm we... Continue reading
Posted Jun 8, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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