This is Brian Ashcroft's TypePad Profile.
Join TypePad and start following Brian Ashcroft's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Brian Ashcroft
Glasgow
Emeritus Professor in Economics and Editor of Economic Commentary, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Interests: Scottish economy, devolution, economic forecasting, regional economics and policy, Scottish media, macro-economic policy, public finance, acoustic guitar playing, Newcastle United
Recent Activity
Scotland's jobs market - February to April 2013
Image
The latest labour market data published today provide further evidence of improvement. Employment rose by 47,000 in February - April compared to the November - January quarter, and unemployment fell by 6,000 to 194,000, a rate of 7.1%. The numbers inactive also fell by 37,000, suggesting that people may be... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
FAI Economic Commentary June 2013
Image
The latest economic Commentary from the Fraser of Allander Institute, sponsored by PwC is published today. We have maintained our GDP forecast for 2013 at 0.9%, the same as our March forecast. For the two years 2014 and 2015, we have revised down slightly our forecast for 2014 from 1.7%... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Wealth, inequality and tax (sort of!)
Image
Yesterday, 8 June, my son, daughter and I walked down a Byres Road in Glasgow bathed in glorious sunshine. My young son Michael is mad about sports cars and Ferraris. As we ambled along suddenly we saw this beautiful red Ferrari. "Dad take a picture with your 'phone!" Which I... Continue reading
Posted Jun 9, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Friday Music: Sunny Scotland - Brian Cunningham
Appropriate on a rare sunny day like today. Filming and original acoustic guitar by BJ Cunningham Continue reading
Posted Jun 7, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
More on new Scottish businesses
Image
I published this blog earlier today on the latest data for new businesses in the first quarter this year released by the Committee of Scottish Bankers. Having researched in the area of new firms using VAT registrations I thought I'd look at that data to see if it differed from... Continue reading
Posted Jun 7, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Little cheer from pickup in new businesses
Image
The data for new businesses in the first quarter this year were released today by the Committee of Scottish Bankers. As I noted in earlier posts e.g. here, this series records new business start-ups based in Scotland that have opened accounts with any of the four Scottish Clearing Banks. It... Continue reading
Posted Jun 7, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Scottish Independence: assessing the case for and against
What conclusions can prospective referendum voters draw on the economic case for and against independence presented by the 'Yes' and 'No' campaigns in the last few weeks? (I include here the full version of the brief article that appears, along with the views of 4 other economists: Jim & Margaret... Continue reading
Posted May 26, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
1
Banks and Scottish Independence, again!
Following some of the comments and responses to yesterday's post on the banks and Scottish independence, I feel I should write some more on the issue. David Comerford makes the important point that I have ignored the process of 'subsidiarization' of foreign banks. He cites the recent talk in Edinburgh... Continue reading
Posted May 21, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
1
Banks and Scottish Independence
Image
The new Scotland Analysis paper on Financial Services and Banking published by the UK Treasury today makes inter alia the point that in an independent Scotland "The Scottish banking sector would be exceptionally large compared to the size of an independent Scotland's economy, making it more vulnerable to financial shocks... Continue reading
Posted May 20, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
3
Good news on Scottish jobs, but why?
Image
The latest labour market data published today reveal that conditions in the Scottish labour market continue to improve. In the quarter January to March unemployment fell by just under 7,000 to below the 200,000 mark to 199,000, or a rate of 7.3%. The chart below shows that unemployment is now... Continue reading
Posted May 15, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Sterling and Scottish Independence
Image
There would be no "massive positive contribution" to the Sterling Zone's balance of payments following Scottish independence. Now that the dust has settled after the publication this week of the Treasury's paper on currency and monetary policy options in an independent Scotland, it is time to stand back and reflect.... Continue reading
Posted Apr 26, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
14
Scottish GDP improves
Image
The latest Scottish GDP statistics, published today, for the fourth quarter of 2012, are on the face of it quite encouraging, especially when compared to UK. The bald statistics show that GDP rose by 0.5% in Scotland in the quarter, while falling by -0.3% in the UK. However, growth in... Continue reading
Posted Apr 17, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
1
Stronger signs of recovery in Scottish labour market
Image
The latest Scottish labour market statistics published this morning serve further to reinforce the view that a more sustained recovery is now underway. Employment during the quarter to Dec - Feb 2013 rose by 39,000, or 1.6%, and by 20,000 over the year, 0.8%. In the UK, employment was almost... Continue reading
Posted Apr 17, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Scotland's Public Sector Net Debt
Image
Yesterday the Scottish Government produced a paper where estimates are provided of Scotland's historical notional share of UK debt interest payments and public sector net debt. The paper identifies UK public sector net debt at the end of 2011-12 as £1,100 billion, which amounted to 72% of UK GDP. Applying... Continue reading
Posted Apr 15, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
7
Scottish Tax and Spend
Image
Today the Scottish Government published a two-page document providing a summary of trends in total Scottish tax receipts since 1980-81. The summary allocates to Scotland a geographical share of North Sea Oil revenues and draws from experimental statistics of Scotland's fiscal balance which are published on the Government Expenditures and... Continue reading
Posted Apr 12, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
4
Financial hotspots
Image
Today the Herald contains a piece drawing on a report compiled by commercial think-tank Z/Yen - a tank of thinkers that has not crossed my doorstep before. The report according to the Herald reveals that: GLASGOW has overtaken Edinburgh as Scotland's most important financial centre in the latest ranking of... Continue reading
Posted Mar 26, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Whither full-time employment?
Image
The latest labour market data for Scotland allow us to update the analysis of the composition or type of employment change. The updated chart to Oct 2011-Sept 2012 is shown below While these data lag the latest total jobs and unemployment data to Nov-Jan 2013, they offer a pretty stark... Continue reading
Posted Mar 26, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Recovery or false dawn in Scottish jobs market?
Image
Last week the latest Scottish jobs and unemployment data were published and somewhat lost amidst the media coverage of the Budget. These labour market numbers were clearly better than they have been for some time. During the quarter to Nov-Jan 2013 employment rose by 19,000, unemployment fell by 4,000 and... Continue reading
Posted Mar 26, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Where have all the new firms gone?
Image
Personal note: For anyone who might have noticed I haven't blogged much in the last month. This has been largely due to a vicious viral infection, which has laid me low for the past few weeks. I am now back at my desk, if still slightly groggy. Hopefully, I can... Continue reading
Posted Mar 25, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
It's not just size that matters.
The spin and hype from the 'yes' and 'no' campaigns after the publication of the Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) was enough to make the eyes water. In 2011-12 the estimated net fiscal balance (with a geographical share of oil) is -5% of GDP compared to the UK's balance... Continue reading
Posted Mar 7, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
1
Latest FAI Economic Commentary
Image
The latest Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP is available here. There is much in the Commentary including signed pieces by researchers outside the Commentary team e.g. Iain Inglis, and Kenny Richmond from Scottish Enterprise on The technology company development journey – from concept to commercialisation,... Continue reading
Posted Mar 7, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
A Developing Taste for Scottish Goods?
Image
Today's manufactured export figures are welcome. They show a rise in volumes of 0.8% in July - September last year over the second quarter performance. Over the year to the third quarter real exports nevertheless fell by -0.8%. I was, therefore, a little surprised to read these comments from Finance... Continue reading
Posted Feb 15, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
2
Our Recovery Just Got Better!
Image
The latest Scottish GDP data for the third quarter of last year, which were published this morning, provide interesting reading. The data are interesting for much more than what they tell us about the performance of the Scottish economy in the latest quarter. Improvements to the underlying statistical methodology and... Continue reading
Posted Feb 1, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Personal Debt, Spending and Recovery
Image
It is difficult to know what to make of the latest data on household debt (financial liabilities, excluding mortgages) which were published by the ONS this week. Media reporting of these data took some comfort, e.g. here, in the evidence that at £2,500 Scotland had, in 2008/10, the second lowest... Continue reading
Posted Jan 30, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
0
Should Scotland be in EU if rUK out?
Image
In a speech to the British Irish Chamber of Commerce in Dublin last week Nicola Sturgeon, Deputy First Minister is reported to have said: "It is no longer fanciful to consider as real the possibility the UK is heading out of the EU. Let me state emphatically this is not... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2013 at Scottish Economy Watch
Comment
2
Subscribe to Brian Ashcroft’s Recent Activity
The Typepad Team
View all »
Greg1888
View all »
0 Favorites
Blogs and Sites
Around The Web