A-Team, That certainly is a fascinating and alarming animation in your last post. That fact that you have some amazing image processing skills as well as your references to living in Tucson made me think of something. To the best of my knowledge, there are only two employers in the Tucson area that have employees with in-depth knowledge of image processing. I retired from one of them. Obviously, image processing was not one of my skill sets. Just wondering.

After seeing some of the rationale for the more extreme high/low predictions, I'm beginning to wonder whether we need to identify predictive methods other than heuristic, statistical or scientific. I think we also need to add "Hubris". It seems to me that predictions that increase or decrease the 2013 results from 2012 in any category (SIE/SIA/Volume)by many orders of magnitude more than any previous year-to-year change are not well founded when using any statistical method or scientific analysis. That leaves me concluding that the predictor has a good case of hubris. Highly educated and otherwise well informed people are not immune to catching a good dose of hubris. In the latter years of my career, I was responsible for performing a Win/Loss analysis for a major aerospace firm at the completion of competition for major contracts, typically those whose initial value exceeded $150M. Since the analysis was expensive and time consuming, not all contract award decisions were analyzed. However, in almost every contract competition that we lost, internal hubris was a contributing factor, if not the primary factor leading to the loss. This is something we all need to be aware of. Individually, we can become so enamored with our own intelligence, analytical skills and thought processes that we lose sight of what realistically can or can NOT happen in the near-term.

2.9 - 3.1 I still believe that we will break the record of 2012, although not by as much as I originally thought (2.85) or that others seem so certain of. Using the current SIE as a means of projecting the final numbers, in September, is a very risky proposition this year. The cyclone is acting like a blender in a bowl of crushed ice, spreading crunchy remnants across the entire perimeter. While much of the MYI in the CAA will be reduced and flushed out the FRAM, I believe that it is resilient enough to hang around for a few more years, at the minimum. Shared Humanity has a valid point when talking about using the average of the lowest 30 days as opposed to the September mean. However, if we as a community were to change our metrics at this time we will be lambasted by WUWT and his cohorts for changing metrics just to suit our "Hidden Agenda."

Doe anyone have any reliable information, as opposed to speculation, as to why IJIS Extent has not updated since the 4th??

I'm glad that Chris is going to try to get the opinion from Dr. Francis on what is currently happening with that persistent cyclone. If we are experiencing another (this isn't the 1st) paradigm shift in the arctic, what are the implications for the future. If this cyclone, or one of it's brothers/sisters/nieces/nephews, decides to visit the arctic from September through November, what does that do to impede or enhance the annual recovery?

For this month I'm going to go with 2.9, up just a nickel from last month, due to the slow start. The reason for staying with another record breaking year is the condition of the ice, not the current extent. And as the discussions and animations on the other threads have indicated, the current condition of the is is deplorable.

The key to these discussions about our mutual prognostications is not to be able to "Brag" about why we were right come September. It as about being able to "Learn" why and where we were "Wrong" come September.

Why is typepad's Spam Locker the internet's equivalent of Solitary Confinement?? [I'm really sorry, OLN. It goes well for a while and then poof, every second comment is stuck, especially when I'm asleep, it seems. First thing I do in the morning is rush to check the spam filter. N.]

Neven, Just had a post swallowed by the Spam filter!!

Working with Terry to help polish his presentation was a rewarding experience. After a lengthy telephone conversation, it was evident that Terry was a gifted storyteller. The task at hand was then a matter of putting his story into a quasi-professional looking series of charts. To set the record straight, Terry may have been overly effusive in his kind words about my contribution. While it's true that I've been making and giving presentations since the last millennia, during the latter years of my career, I had access to editors, graphic artists and 24/7 IT support when working on various proposal efforts. Collaborating via GoogleDocs was a new experience for both of us, yet we managed to navigate the process. Personally, I prefer making the charts using Power Point and then using the Google platform for sharing. I can envision a series of presentations, covering all thing cryospheric that can be tailored or augmented for specific audiences. As time permits, I will post more of my tips on effective presentations on the Forum thread that Neven opened yesterday. I'm looking forward to collaborating and supporting any efforts to further communicate the threats we are facing. Again, Kudos to Neven for providing ASIB and the Forum as a place that we can learn and share knowledge.

Larry, Are you looking at all at the comments associated with the numerical answers? I know when I have had to analyze survey results, the comments provided as much information clues as did the distribution of the results.

2.85 I'm basing my WAG (Wild Ass Guess) on the fact that I believe we've entered a stage where every successive year results in a new record until we reach a fluttering tail as we near zero. Given the dramatic fracturing in February and March and the general state of the ice, I can't envision any rebound this year. Regarding this poll, any entries posted at the beginning of the 30 day window are likely to be far less accurate than those submitted just prior to the deadline. Weather will decide the final number but not the general trend of continuing decline.

Quoting Lillybrown: Dear amazing Nevan, with regards to " doing something useful in the real world". Are ya daft laddy?......... ...........You and your site are extremely important as mankind begins to awaken to the biggest challenge we have ever faced. Please don't turn out the light. Neven, I've noticed that you haven't opened a thread on the Forum regarding donations. I'd like to think you've just been too busy, however, I think it's more likely that your just too humble to ask. Would you be offended if someone opened a thread on your behalf?

$$$ are on the way. Thanks for all you are doing for humanity!!

Neven, I went to make a donation, via credit card, only to discover that my lack of ability to understand German made that difficult. The fact that I understand some Portuguese, can get by with some limited Japanese and after 40 years can still count to 5 in Korean provided no help in this matter. While I'm willing to be generous, I was afraid that I'd make a mistake that would enable you to install Italian marble floors and Brazilian granite counters in your new home!!

Just lost a reply to R. Gates in the spam locker. [Released now, as have those by Kevin McKinney and Hans Verbeek. I'm sending all spammed comments to TypePad now. Hope they find a solution soon.]

Paul, I had just a moment to briefly look at your presentation. I'm most impressed with the professionalism of your product. Thanks for sharing. I'm collaborating with Terry Moran on a presentation he is giving to the MENSAs in Niagara Falls next month. I've just recommended to him that we may want to use some of the materials from your presentation to enhance what he has already gathered. Again, congratulations on a superb production!!

Quoting Neven:..... I'm 100% against geo-engineering if it isn't preceded by systemic changes to the way we fit our economy into the ecology...... I am equally opposed to geo-engineering for a number of reasons: 1. We currently have no ability to accurately model what is currently occurring in the Arctic and predict any reasonable timeline for a variety of climatological, meteorological, economical and societal impacts. What makes us think we can introduce another variable into an already complex system with any degree of confidence. 2. I greatly fear that the risks of unintended consequences of geo-engineering far outweigh any perceived benefits. 3. Any solution that does not curtail CO2 emissions is a non-starter. What is the benefit of slowing down the warming of the planet if we continue to kill the marine life in the oceans??

While it is encouraging to see that 45% of New Hampshire Republicans see the demise of Arctic Sea Ice as a serious threat, I don't think that those same numbers would hold true in a southern State. In my home state of Texas, I would be willing to bet money that the numbers for Republicans would be at least 10-15% lower. I would even suspect some lower numbers for the Democrats and Independents as well. This is sad because Texas has been devastated by drought for two years and the Gulf Coast, where I just spent 4 days fishing, is so vulnerable to storm surge and rising sea levels.

Chris, Thanks for the links!!!

Quoting Espen: OldLeatherneck; Be careful with these pre-season figures, to say it at least! Good reminder, however, I'm aware that we are still in "Spring Training" and the daily win/loss records won't count until the "Regular Season" starts next month.

Paul, I would be happy to post the area data for the same dates, however, I'm not sure where to find the raw data that I can export directly into excel. I'm still a novice when it comes to exploring all of the resources and data sources available. Any suggestions would be most welcome. Thanks

If today's IJIS Extent loss (>200K)stands, it would be the greatest one day loss in the month of April. I did a quick survey of the April daily losses since 2003. Prior to 2012, there were only three times that the daily loss exceeded 100K. However, in 2012 it occurred 7 times. And we all know how much fun 2012 was. The below table was my first cut at looking at daily losses for the month of April. Buckle your seatbelts...it's going to be rough sailing this summer!!

pjmattheis, I certainly hope the above piece is posted on the Forum as a Topic of it's own. This was very valuable and important information to be shared with another audience.

Quoting Shared Humanity: I live in Chicago and I can state without reservation that most intelligent people I talk to consider the loss of sea ice in the Arctic a curiosity. They'll talk to friends and relatives over a beer at a backyard cookout but it simply does not register as a serious threat. Most of the U.S. is in this space. It will take dramatic, devastating impacts before the U.S. wakes up. The droughts of the past 3 years has not done it. It's even worse in my part of Texas where 80% of the population gets their news from FOX NEWS! Ironically, it is the grain producing region from Texas north to the Dakotas that will be suffering the most from drought and groundwater depletion. Yet, it is their elected officials that proudly claim that AGW/CC is socialist plot to destroy capitalism. Somehow, we need to proclaim very loudly: "What Happens in the Arctic,........Doesn't Stay in the Arctic!!"