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OldLeatherneck
Texas Hill Country
Retired Systems Engineer - Defense Industry
Interests: Travel, Photography, Climate Change
Recent Activity
Before we get into the news about the PIOMAS update, I'd like to throw in my thoughts about the idea for the novel. When I read the concept for an object placed in the Polar ice, I had a 50+ year flashback to a movie we were shown in the 4th Grade. At that time my family was living in Duluth, Minnesota and the St. Lawrence Seaway had just been opened for international shipping. Yes, that belies my age. The movie started with a small child placing a small toy sailboat into a river which entered into Lake Superior, somewhere along the North Shore. The movie continued with brief vignettes of the little sailboat, bobbing down the river, floating in the Great Lakes, going through the many locks between the lakes and then bobbing along the St. Lawrence river until reaching the Atlantic Ocean. For the novel to have meaning, the object placed in the ice must have it's own character that compels the reader to follow the journey and learn upon the way. Just my thoughts.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, This recent post of yours is one of your better written essays. I've never thought you to be an "Alarmist." I do believe that you are an "Alarmed" (and well-informed) citizen making a valiant effort to communicate your concerns to a broader audience. I've always thought of "Alarmists" as those who were over-hyping their concerns, no matter how legitimate their cause might be . I can think of very few of the regular contributors to this Blog or members of the Forum who I would consider to be overly "Alarmist" when it comes to the topic of AGW. I believe that we are a collective of "Concerned" citizens who are aware that the consequences of unmitigated AGW pose an existential threat to the vast majority of humanity. As to the previously posted "gibberish" that the earth's carrying capacity is in the hundreds of billions, I have no comment that could be made without using vulgar language. Secondly, it's too early in the day to start drinking!
Thanks Neven for posting this informative, yet very alarming article. Also thanks to Chris Reynolds for providing supporting evidence as to how these changes in the Arctic are already influencing global weather patterns. If the recent decline in the Arctic's Albedo, due to Sea Ice loss, is already responsible for 25% of recent global temperature increases, what will happen when we reach the point of ice free summers in the Arctic?? I can appreciate the difficulty in developing models for predicting future changes in the global weather patterns. Most climate models use a 30 year average as a baseline. However, events "on the ground" are changing the baseline every few years? I shudder at the thought of what the Arctic Albedo will be after a summer that sees 2-3 months of an ice-free state.
Just by the volume of traffic on the forum, in the Consequences and Policies & Solutions categories, I would say that the more people learn about what is happening to the Arctic Sea Ice, the more they begin to understand the linkage with Northern Hemisphere weather patterns. I'm glad that a sociologist like Larry Hamilton is contributing to this blog. In the not to distant future, the sociological implications of unfettered AGW/CC may be as harmful to societal cohesion as the anticipated impacts on the weather.
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven has certainly brought attention to the declining Arctic Sea Ice and the global implications of this decline. I also hope that the many contributors and readers of this blog are as generous with their euros as they are with their compliments. The ,"DONATE" button is at the upper right corner of this page.
Should we consider calling this storm Arctic Cyclone "HADES". What's happening in the Arctic regions this year is certainly Hellish: multiple cyclones, raging wildfires, spewing methane seeps and a broken Jet Stream to name just a few of this year's anomalies. That coupled with how many of the brightest minds, here and elsewhere, seem to be asking more questions than providing answers.
I do not like the idea of naming a storm after any of the "Deniers". They get far too much attention as it is and it just may inflame them into to more destructive activities. I have a strong feeling that using Inuit names is the way to go, however, a courtesy call or letter to various tribal councils is recommended. Therefore, while we are waiting on a response from the Inuits we name the first storm Arctic Cyclone NEVEN. I say this because no one person on this planet has done more to bring the world's attention to the demise of the Arctic Sea Ice than Neven has! He deserves the tribute.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
The combined work of the many "amateurs" on the ASIB and the ASIF is truly impressive. These many animations bring the Arctic to life. Sadly, it is a life that is going through death throes. Every time I look at the daily HYCOM animation of ice thickness, I feel like I'm watching a sonogram of a dying heartbeat!
Toggle Commented Jul 19, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice
Unless there's a pretty radical change in ice behavior soon, it seems possible that WUWT's June prediction (4.8) will be more accurate than our August one. That would be a bit embarrassing. In the last 21 days alone, IJIS Extent has dropped almost 2.4 Million Sq Km. Since much of the remaining ice is very vulnerable, I find it inconceivable to lose less than 4.0 Million Sq Km in the next 6-8 weeks. 2007 is fair game and 2012 is threatened.
3.1 I've moved up a notch since last time. My approach is primarily heuristic, however, I use statistics and trend analysis to establish upper and lower limits as to what could be realistic projections. In looking at the past decade, years that had an up-tick, did not have dramatically big increases. Whereas, years like 2007 and 2012 had dramatic losses from the previous year. Therefore, I think an increase of more than 10-15% is unrealistic. On the lower limit, I can not envision two successive years of dramatic losses like last years. During the February/March fracturing event, I thought for certain that the stage was set for massive losses this year. Then the slow start of melting and low DMI temps began to indicate that we may not break any records this year. PAC-2013 has certainly done a great deal of damage to the integrity of the ice cap, and now the meteorological conditions are ideal for rapid melting. Every year is a new science experiment in the arctic. The lessons we learn this year will be valuable in helping to understand what is happening in the few remaining years of summer ice.
Quoting Neven: "There is a fine section on the ASIF where a couple of folks are having great discussions." In addition to the topics Artful Dodger mentioned in the Politics and Solution Category, Ww have a long running discussion about the "Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice" in the Consequences category, with over 200 comments and 7,000 page views. There are many very important issues raised in the above posts and I would hope that these discussions are carried over to the ASIF. I may, as time permits, copy and paste many of them over to the Forum, myself, so that these thoughts are not lost forever. However, I don't want to be like an editor trying to decide which comments are the most relevant. So please come on over and join the conversation about the multiple ways we are destroying the planet!! https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,30.0.html
Re: U-Hamburg amsr2 concentration error. The error was corrected, I have started updating my maps and area/extent calculations. That's great news Wipneus. THANKS!!
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, For someone whose first language was not English, I continue to be amazed at your fluency, particularly when it comes to all things "scientific". After 33 years of working with scientists and engineers in the Defense Industry, there were few native born Americans, in the fields of engineering or science, that had your grasp of the English language and the ability to communicate complex topics with ease. After the ice melts, you might consider a second career teaching American engineers and scientist how to write coherently and fluently. BTW, congratulations on the Forum surpassing 1,000,000 page views in less than five months. A remarkable achievement indeed!!
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
A-Team, Thanks so very much for those animations of export through the Fram Strait!! For the past 3-4 days when I've been flipping through the various Rorcshach Tests available here on the ASIG, my eyes were trying to tell me that there was a lot of ice flowing through the Fram, and my brain was having trouble accepting that information. Not the first time by brain was wrong! My retinologist will be so pleased to hear this.
A-Team, That certainly is a fascinating and alarming animation in your last post. That fact that you have some amazing image processing skills as well as your references to living in Tucson made me think of something. To the best of my knowledge, there are only two employers in the Tucson area that have employees with in-depth knowledge of image processing. I retired from one of them. Obviously, image processing was not one of my skill sets. Just wondering.
After seeing some of the rationale for the more extreme high/low predictions, I'm beginning to wonder whether we need to identify predictive methods other than heuristic, statistical or scientific. I think we also need to add "Hubris". It seems to me that predictions that increase or decrease the 2013 results from 2012 in any category (SIE/SIA/Volume)by many orders of magnitude more than any previous year-to-year change are not well founded when using any statistical method or scientific analysis. That leaves me concluding that the predictor has a good case of hubris. Highly educated and otherwise well informed people are not immune to catching a good dose of hubris. In the latter years of my career, I was responsible for performing a Win/Loss analysis for a major aerospace firm at the completion of competition for major contracts, typically those whose initial value exceeded $150M. Since the analysis was expensive and time consuming, not all contract award decisions were analyzed. However, in almost every contract competition that we lost, internal hubris was a contributing factor, if not the primary factor leading to the loss. This is something we all need to be aware of. Individually, we can become so enamored with our own intelligence, analytical skills and thought processes that we lose sight of what realistically can or can NOT happen in the near-term.
2.9 - 3.1 I still believe that we will break the record of 2012, although not by as much as I originally thought (2.85) or that others seem so certain of. Using the current SIE as a means of projecting the final numbers, in September, is a very risky proposition this year. The cyclone is acting like a blender in a bowl of crushed ice, spreading crunchy remnants across the entire perimeter. While much of the MYI in the CAA will be reduced and flushed out the FRAM, I believe that it is resilient enough to hang around for a few more years, at the minimum. Shared Humanity has a valid point when talking about using the average of the lowest 30 days as opposed to the September mean. However, if we as a community were to change our metrics at this time we will be lambasted by WUWT and his cohorts for changing metrics just to suit our "Hidden Agenda."
Doe anyone have any reliable information, as opposed to speculation, as to why IJIS Extent has not updated since the 4th??
I'm glad that Chris is going to try to get the opinion from Dr. Francis on what is currently happening with that persistent cyclone. If we are experiencing another (this isn't the 1st) paradigm shift in the arctic, what are the implications for the future. If this cyclone, or one of it's brothers/sisters/nieces/nephews, decides to visit the arctic from September through November, what does that do to impede or enhance the annual recovery?
For this month I'm going to go with 2.9, up just a nickel from last month, due to the slow start. The reason for staying with another record breaking year is the condition of the ice, not the current extent. And as the discussions and animations on the other threads have indicated, the current condition of the is is deplorable.
The key to these discussions about our mutual prognostications is not to be able to "Brag" about why we were right come September. It as about being able to "Learn" why and where we were "Wrong" come September.
Toggle Commented May 29, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start at Arctic Sea Ice
Why is typepad's Spam Locker the internet's equivalent of Solitary Confinement?? [I'm really sorry, OLN. It goes well for a while and then poof, every second comment is stuck, especially when I'm asleep, it seems. First thing I do in the morning is rush to check the spam filter. N.]
Neven, Just had a post swallowed by the Spam filter!!
Working with Terry to help polish his presentation was a rewarding experience. After a lengthy telephone conversation, it was evident that Terry was a gifted storyteller. The task at hand was then a matter of putting his story into a quasi-professional looking series of charts. To set the record straight, Terry may have been overly effusive in his kind words about my contribution. While it's true that I've been making and giving presentations since the last millennia, during the latter years of my career, I had access to editors, graphic artists and 24/7 IT support when working on various proposal efforts. Collaborating via GoogleDocs was a new experience for both of us, yet we managed to navigate the process. Personally, I prefer making the charts using Power Point and then using the Google platform for sharing. I can envision a series of presentations, covering all thing cryospheric that can be tailored or augmented for specific audiences. As time permits, I will post more of my tips on effective presentations on the Forum thread that Neven opened yesterday. I'm looking forward to collaborating and supporting any efforts to further communicate the threats we are facing. Again, Kudos to Neven for providing ASIB and the Forum as a place that we can learn and share knowledge.
Larry, Are you looking at all at the comments associated with the numerical answers? I know when I have had to analyze survey results, the comments provided as much information clues as did the distribution of the results.