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Stuck in a rut
Interests: Very eclectic
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Calving is going to be the be culprit. Especially in Antarctica. But even in Greenland, those glaciers are starting to brake down structurally and we still do not have a good idea as to at what point they will start braking down entirely. Just basing on what has happened in the Arctic and what the worse case doom sayers where saying 15 yrs ago, I would think the 5m rise by 2100 maybe on the end of what is going to happen.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
This all precludes that ice melts much like an ice cube. I believe historically there is much more evidence that large glaciers create catastrophic events. Meaning there is a gradual melt, but there are hidden events going on that will then allow massive lose. Then back to gradual melt. Look at the ice sheets of Antarctica or the lose of the super glaciers of NA after the last ice age.
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I know I only have High School, but why should have they been surprised? Ice sheets in Antarctica collapsing. ice in the Arctic disappearing, glaciers all over the world disappearing and on and on. I would have been shocked if it was not the case. Is it another case of them being taught something in classrooms and having a difficult time understanding what is going on out in the real world? I do understand that they are highly educated individuals with a good reputation, but to my way of thinking they should be going out on the field with the expectation that the ice is disappearing and if does not seem to look like it is, then the followup should be, What is the ice hiding from us that we can not see? Only if the answer comes back nothing on that then say it is stable. The only question I believe is valid on all ice around the world is How long is it going to hang around?
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
""By a long shot, this is the most ice we've had on Lake Superior in 20 years," Associate Professor at the Large Lakes Observatory in Duluth, Minn., Jay Austin said." That is in the last 20 years. I highly suspect (although I am finding it hard to know where to get such data) that in the historical records that used to be very common. Another big factor should be taken into consideration is the thickness. I live and work in the Toronto, Canada region. In Toronto harbour, it used to be common for people to skate on the ice in the winter time there. Even this year that would be a danger, because that ice really is not that thick as compared to pre 1990's. It also should not be forgotten that the ice extent in the Arctic itself could reach a Maximum that could be near a record low. As for the Antarctic. That as many factors involved, and you go back to thickness. If you include all the glaciers on land, by all reports, things are not in very good shape there either.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Alert Bay which is at 82.3 N has sun for 6.5 hrs today and lengthening at about .5 hrs/day
As for debate. could it not also be a chicken and egg issue or even two elements that are actually working together? As in most things in the real world, the more we learn the murkier things can get until you start putting it all elements together as more or less equal forces.
While Hans is drying up, we do have the other extreme. England. Think about about anyone there. Although I must say the expression rain of the century, millennium is getting a little tiresome just because with AGW this is the new norm. Should be expect although not desired.
Toggle Commented Feb 14, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
What I have noticed more then anything in the last couple of years is the wild gyrations of the jet stream. There have been years where Florida lost its crops due to freezing, but you never saw things like what you see now. Like Texas having -40 degree windchill at the same time as Calgary, Alberta have temps near or above 0C. Also most snowfall would come in the J-F-M months. In my younger years weather forecasters would talk about the Alberta clippers and the Arctic lows (blaming Canada even though we all knew it really was a weather system coming from Siberia that picked up the cold from the North Pole. Now It seems all depended upon blocking systems how close they are to each other and how they send the jet stream. See the weather systems going on this winter and Hurricane Sandy heading west instead of east like it should have.
Thank you Neven. Unfortunately he represents the many that are still around. It is very hard to prove anything when one is convinced the evidence is all a lie, and that anyone giving the proof is either duped or part of a grand conspiracy aimed at inconveniencing them. The 'stadium wave' theory could be true as long as everything stays the same. Example: In New Brunswick, Canada you get a tidal bore in the rivers. Hight is fairly predictable, but when you build say a causeway, then then river gets silted up, and the bore becomes just a fraction of what you had before, plus you get other problems developing because of that too. Ask the city of Moncton. In the case of ENSO and NAO I believe that you will find major disruption setting in the last 30-50 years in the wave patterns, because of AGW. We do know that disruptions are going to happen, the question then becomes, when how much and what will replace it.
As some have been talking about weather in Alaska did some snooping and came across this: Not only does it give forecasts temp and precipitation of right now but how well they have done in the last 2 months. Do not know too many sites that would do that. That could also be helpful in giving potential trends that the models may be missing. Just a thought. As far as debate on solar influence. In my uneducated lurker opinion (meaning fascinated by many media forms of information but not exhaustive studying)I think the bigger influence now is becoming heat build up in the deep oceans and how that is effecting their currents. At this point the study of those layers are not that good because the difficulty of reaching those layers, but my reasoning is this. If the models are right in that CO2 and other pollutants should be causing x rise in temperature and it is not quite happening then a) the models are wrong or b) the oceans are hiding it at deeper layers then we think. It is my belief that it is more the b then a just as we are finding in the Antarctic that the ice IS melting very fast not from top down, but from bottom up. That is from Ocean heat
A point has been made about a lot of snowfall already in Europe. Just a an observer in Canada, if the snow is early and thick and stays, that can mean a colder winter, and increase albedo effect, but when the spring hits that snow tends to get lost very fast because the ground is still warm from the fall. Where the snow sticks around is when you have had enough cold weather before the snow hits to get deep into the ground. I have seen winters where there has ended up with gaps between the ground and the snow blanket and the ground has never really frozen. Also a big item is the type of snow. If it is heavy and full of water then that takes a long time to go. On the other hand I have known snow that was light and cold and several feet thick, but when the temps got to the 10-15C range disappeared within days.
Wether: had pointed out that the Pacific Ocean off Japan was extremely warm this summer. Note: Don't know how to insert images, but terrific image of SST That would explain 2 things possibly. 1)large number of intense Typhoons hitting Asia this year and 2) the high temps in Japan and China. That probably explains the all that moister also. If it starts snowing before the ground gets to dry up too much would not that potentially keep the ground warmer and when the spring comes melt everything really fast?
Toggle Commented Oct 10, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
The same scientist in that interview also said that although in science we have theories which we are are still not comfortable in declare laws even if they have still held up to scrutiny and we have laws which we are comfortable in saying they will always hold up to scrutiny. Even laws we as scientists should understand that they may at some point fail because we still know so little. That is true skepticism in science.
Toggle Commented Oct 8, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
@wayne Thanks. @will 'skeptics' as they like calling themselves, I find are those who try and play both sides of the fence on any issue. That way they can claim to have gotten it right no matter what the out come is. As far as scientist go I like to quote a scientist I once heard answering a question about the differences in degrees (bachelor, master PHD etc.). " The difference between a Masters and a PhD is NOT the amount of knowledge you have as they a basically the same. The difference is the Master thinks he knows everything and the PhD discovers he knows nothing."
Toggle Commented Oct 8, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
OT @j_w: Reminds me of last year on a weather blog and all the talk of the big drought in the US. Guy claim to live there and denied a drought existed because he was having regular rain all summer. Based on that all you had to do is look at the drought map and you almost got down to his house address as that was the only spot it was raining for 100s sq miles around. This means NS will only see what he wants to see and forget what the facts really are. Like maybe the ice breaker was taking that course because it already was the easiest way through the ice/non-ice. So wayne, could we have a 'warm' winter, thus setting up for a bad melt down next summer if conditions are right?
Toggle Commented Oct 7, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Interesting times getting ice data this year. First Boulder gets flooded out then US gov agencies close their doors. An interesting note for me is the fact that despite the fact melt conditions were so poor with cold temps and lots of cloud, there still was a 10.2 million km2 melt off. As for the theory that the cold is coming back just remember despite Antarctic extent slightly increasing the PIG is losing 2 in/DAY underneath. Do not know the math on that, all I know that takes a LOT of heat energy to do that.
Toggle Commented Oct 6, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Jeff Master's blog has some interesting things about what happened in August and some figures as to what happened in 2013 as to costs in weather. Note at the end he does mention the Arctic and that his Tues. blog will be about the minimum. Should be good as he and his team understand the correlation between AGW and weather. eg no single event can be attributed to AGW, but tends definitely do.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
"NLPatents - Because Boulder is under water:" Very seriously under water. Tonights news said army equating it to what happened with Katrina. It is a low full of water trapped by stationary fronts and is just sitting there drowning Boulder. It cannot lose its moister because it keeps on getting replenished from the Gulf. So we have to wait until the fronts move on. Then the clean up begins and depending on how bad and how much money and resources are put in it could be a very long time.
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
@DE-J: I do admire your efforts. As you point out where models have not worked is underestimating severity. It goes back to the old problem of the butterfly in Beijing, It will never be possible to get all the perimeters involved to the degree they are involved as it is a chaotic system over all. I do say that the models are getting better, but they are never meant for what happens year to year. They are only meant for the long run. Keep up the good work, for even when you do get things wrong we are still getting closer to what the truth is. Just remember that hurricane et al and tornado forecasts are based on models. They never get it exactly right, but when listened to save countless lives and damage.
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
These are just the opening salvos to discredit the IPCC. Somewhere along the line they will probably bring out Micheal Mann's hockey stick charts. And on we go. The big question for me is where did that heat go. If not to air temps then it is hiding somewhere else and when it reveals itself we could be in for a very big bad surprise. Although based on all the favourite natural rhythm cycles such as the current Pacific decadal cooling period, distance from the sun etc. we should be in a major cooling trend not a hiatus. Seems no mention of the fact the Arctic is decades ahead of the last IPCC report with respect to melt. And a few other things that were underestimated. Oh well we could be in a very rough ride as far as what nature has in store for us in the next few decades, because in the current clime of economic theory which is to cut deficits and do not spend on anything, by the time we find out that we are in very severe trouble, it will be way too late, unless we stumble on a solution by accident.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
Makes me wounder when are we going to stop calling all these events 1-100 yr event. For a specific location maybe(although even that is changing), but it used to be a 1-100yr. event was meant to include an entire geographical region. So many of this events are happening every year in even geographical regions (although different variations granted) that 1-100 yr. event although catastrophic for the location you can almost start calling them as common as cat 3+ hurricanes hitting Florida. Maybe not frequent, but not unusual and should not be surprising giving how big the changes are occurring especially related to the jet stream, which was predicted quite a while ago is it would start slowing down and become erratic as a result of decline of ASI. PS that was a long unwieldy sentence but am too tired to try an figure out a better way of saying it. Good night.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
@LH: Based on location (have not followed weather reports), sounds like what happened in Calgary, Canada earlier this year. There what happened was a swirl broke off of the jet stream and kept throwing a system back up into the mountains making it rain there instead of farther east. As for what may happen this winter: from Accuweather: I will be issuing the AccuWeather Canada forecast for Fall 2013 next week. Here are some of the key points from the ECMWF model forecast.... 1. Unseasonably warm for the Fall from extreme NW Canada to Atlantic Canada. 2. Warmer than normal for the SW U.S. in the Fall. 3. Near-normal Fall temperatures from the southern Prairies to extreme southern Ontario. 4. Wetter pattern for western BC this Fall, but drier than normal for Atlantic Canada. 5. Warmer-than-normal winter for Alaska and much of NE Canada, including Newfoundland. 6. Near-normal temperatures from BC to Ontario and southern Quebec.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
@Neven Sorry I should not have bit and failed to remember to hesitate posting after I had posted. Think the minimum has been reached unless a big system goes in and goes a major compaction job, I do feel though that there is too much heat in the land and oceans in NH to add a lot of volume this winter unless of course we get a continuation of cold air mass being isolated from the rest the NH
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
@ NJSnowFan: Based on your theory of ice breakers making a big impact on sea ice, you should also see a very clear temperature path along the major shipping corridors of the world as these container ships are many times larger and the number of ships taking the same path many times more. You can not find it and you never will find it. It may be there for a short time but a path can not be followed in that manor over a longer period of time. The same goes with contrails that high altitude jets leave. They do add a little haze in the atmosphere, but in the grand scale of what you see in the sky after a couple of hrs. the flight path is very hard to detect. Therefore your pet theory can not be relevant as the effects of wind, water and waves are far greater then one ship carving a path through ice a 100 ft or so across and in normal circumstances recloses a few hrs later. That is why every ship going through heavy ice either is an ice breaker or closely follows an ice breaker. Even then they occasionally get stuck.
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Unfortunately the other side of that equation tends to be the cost of finding out the truth for everyone is directly proportional to the numbers convinced of that lie and how dedicated they are in believing that lie and defending it.
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice