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Stuck in a rut
Interests: Very eclectic
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@ARogers: Barentz had about a month there where there were between 2-3 cyclones hitting almost every single day. All of them following the Gulf Stream which means a fair amount of heat involved. Remember somes Arctic weather scientist reporting from a ship in that area stating she had never known of such a great number of large storms hitting as often and for such a long time.
Thanks JG. Do realize that when it comes to weather Nfld has a great variety. That is why I was getting a little confused as to the real story.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
DR: Science does not evolve based on what has already occurred. It evolves by presenting "speculation" based on reasoning, then if it comes out correct many times then that reasoning has proven validation. If proven wrong then you change your reasoning. If all you are concerned about is people laughing at you because you got something wrong, science is not the area you should get involved with.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
@Ostepop How do you define speculation. To someone with little to no knowledge calling today may still be speculation. To someone whose lifelong study has been this subject it is a slam dunk. Example: You hear a funny noise in your car, you and your friend both of whom have little knowledge about cars can take a guess at the problem. That is speculation. A competent mechanic on hearing that noise can usually tell you exactly what the problem is. Why? Expertise. Give these people at NSIDC the credit they do deserve. They did not get their degrees out of a cereal box. In fact I suspect they knew the max was in the bag at least a couple of weeks ago. They just wanted to be 99.9% certain of it before they called it. In the science field that is as certain as you can get about anything, and notice they still gave themselves a back door..
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Should have looked more. Nfld also is generally buried. Officials are hoping for warm days and cold nights until snow is gone, otherwise Atlantic Canada Provinces could all have a disastrous spring with floods.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Nfld hasn't had as much snow, but many storms packing winds in some locations over 100kph. Indicative of the stormy weather hitting the edges of the ice pack in the last many weeks.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Have family in that area and they have had a LOT of snow. Given right conditions though that can disappear fast and cause major flooding.
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry! Thought someone mentioned A 2011,2012, But then maybe is was not you calling it but everyone else.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven has been burned a few years where all the numbers said the max had been reached and no way could anything happen to it. The Arctic then said SURPRISE!! And that include sudden upsurges in the last half of Mar. That is why Neven has imposed that rule.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice In search of an Arctic 'holy grail' “Thickness is the holy grail of sea ice knowledge,” said Ben Holt, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Sea ice has been one of the most important indicators of global warming. But sea ice thickness, this really important variable, is hard to measure. It’s spatially variable – it grows in some places and has been deformed in others. There’s also a snow cover, and some instruments see just the tops of the formations, which are snow.” There is a compounding problem. Any study that deals with thinning ice tends to use data 2-3 years and older. Reasons for this include, data collection,analysis, write up, then peer review and analysis and that is not done overnight. End result maybe you end up with the year 2012 as their most studies, and we all know what happened then which could then skew some conclusions. As has been stated many times. The Arctic is always full of surprises. But then that is what makes it so much fun to watch.
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2015 on PIOMAS March 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
@ Andy. In reference to fast ice. In the area that Canada Ice Service covers On their regional maps, other than 2 possible small spots no fast ice exists. One what little they have filled in for local maps there are a few shores that show a max of 1-2 miles off shore with most of it very near shore. Total area does not amount to very much though. My reading of those charts tell me once the open Arctic Ocean is ice free all you will have left are the bergs and ice shelves around Greenland. The Canadian last stand Archipelago has very little to offer you
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
low angle sun reflection. To try and claim the scientists are not taking into account reflection of solar energy at low angles is telling them that they can not pass high school physics. Lower the angle the higher reflectivity. basic physics. Although trying to bring in turbulence is baffling to say the least as the more turbulence you have the greater absorptions you will get as you will switch low angle to high angle (low angle can get only so low before the angle starts getting higher. Basic geometry.). High angles mean greater absorption and less reflection. They do have it in their models. The difficulty is that the statistic needed to explain it will require far more then high school math. And as to why they do not bring it up other then explaining it just simply as lower angle greater surface area being hit for the same energy levels? a) could be not statistically relevant to bring up or b) already built into the equation in a simplified form so that anyone how has studied the science understands it is already there and for those who haven't they would not understand any of the math in the first place so why bother.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
BTW neven we are in trouble at this rate in 10 days time we are going to have a new max. ;D
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
In 4 days time New England is going to be crying foul again as parts of Hudson Bay will be warmer then they are. The seas off Eastern Greenland are continuing to be torn apart by 2-3 cyclones at a time. A quote I saw from Mr. Jeff Master's blog on wunderground :Why are we not paying attention to those major storms developing off Greenland were it were in the GoM we would be all over it? reply Maybe because it is not in the GoM.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
OT: @Bill Fothergill | March 11, 2015 at 13:36 Slight exaggeration other then if you did survive in continental USA even on the east coast the live you live would be very unpleasant. Comparing sizes of volcano explosions: Now Toba. That was a VOLCANO!!! Ash deposit coverage: That is just the ash deposit and does not get into secondary effects and video: Can not find video of it now, but for Toba, no one knew about it until very recently. Took 4 different groups of scientists only one group was common to the other 3 a team that studies volcanic ash in Canada that proved it happened.
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
OLN Saw a couple of Docs about Yellowstone Caldera. I would basically wipe out most of life in the US from the ash cloud itself. *Canada and Mexico may have parts saved depending on jet stream location. The temps would plummet very fast and likely stop the melt season cold. Adding Krakatoa and Pinatubo to the mix would be like adding a beebee gun to a machine gun fight. It would not be noticed, Do get your point though, and agree with your sentiments. This could be a year where we see a freefall.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Melt ponds seem to be a very important factor in melt. You can see that in Greenland and the Antarctic ice shelves as well. I problem with the Arctic that I see, is that the ice , even the thickest, is in such poor condition that melt ponds can not form, because and water gets drained out immediately. If that is the case, we may see a situation that we could get a slowdown in minimums then the curves would expect, but what is really happening is that the ice is getting weaker and weaker. In this scenario you would then get a tipping point where in 1-2 years you would go from OK ice (by todays standards) to nothing as if falling off a giant cliff. I think you may be seeing an indication of this this winter. Granted the air and water going into the Arctic is warm, but is it really warm enough to cause the 'melt' that we are seeing? IMO I believe what is happening is that the ice has gotten so weak that the storms moving into the Arctic are changing the ice into slush and with the export movement the ice is then vanishing.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
@ Chris: As mentioned in the quote by Neven: "What we see now is a little above the trend, but it’s not inconsistent with it in any way,” Lindsay said. “It’s well within the natural variability around the long-term trend.” and that is about the last 2 years. My observation is that if UW was outcasted for being too 'alarmists' and facts turned out to be worse then their model, on top of that we are starting a possible melt a month before the sun comes up. For anyone that loves the ice, it is very bad news.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2015 on Thinner and thinner at Arctic Sea Ice
Many thanks Bill F for very informative capitulation. 2 things that are generally missed by most not understanding feedbacks, is that that 1 trillion also includes anything nature wants to add to it via things like permafrost melt. The other elephant in the room is that 2C is seen as a figure where natures status quo can be kept and controlled by humans. IMO I think all the horses already have left the barn and so far out of sight you will never find them to get them back. I am starting to think that speed of change has a great multiplier effect. Adding 200 ppm over 10,000 yrs and increasing temps by 2C nature can adjust to with only minor changes over all. We are trying to see what happens when you try it out over 200 years. Could we compare it to the difference of what would happen to car occupants between going from 0-120 km/h in 5 seconds and 0-120 km/h 0.1 seconds. Even if you manage to end at the same speed. the speed you get to it has 2 different outcomes to the passengers. I think that even if we were to stop below 1 terra tonne, the acceleration has been so great on all parts of the ecco system when it finally gets to the plateau of its new status quo 2C will be a long gone memory as will most of the ice.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice Not sure what I did wrong on code.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
@ bill f: Many thanks, caught it on youtube.[url=]Climate Change by Numbers BBC Documentary 2015[/url] I can understand their approach. Instead of tackling bad science head on, they came at it from a similar angle as many deniers use and that is math with math. Clearly stating that in those 3 numbers 3 very different types of math are used and all of them are recognized and work. Also by explaining the math by using very non climate change examples, very hard to refute.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
All that wonderful thick ice that was developing during the last two years? I think this just shows how poor that thick ice is and if the MYI is that bad the rest must be worse. If we get a return to a 2007 or 2012 summer IMO there is not enough good ice left to fight what could be done to the ASI. Not saying it will all go, but we could end up with mainly what is called grey ice.
Toggle Commented Mar 4, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
An interesting blog on working on the Arctic ice. Shows I think how poor our best guesses really are.
Found a recent study about Arctic fire prevalence. Article on it. PDF study. So the big question is not whether it actually is increasing. The big question is how bad it will get. How many hydrocarbon seams are close enough to surface that once a fire starts will burn for years? Could the tundra dry out enough and have enough built up vegetation that once a fire starts could burn for years such as has happened in Irish peat bogs? Can trees grow back fast enough to replace what has been burnt to hold soil and water before it turns to desert? Lastly can human based infrastructure depended on permafrost as foundation be replaced fast enough before an ecological catastrophe happens as there are a lot of pipes up there? The last question is somewhat of a side issue, but currently the ecosystems in the north are very fragile and damaging that has huge ripple effects on what happens potentially to ice and snow. It would also make it harder for new flora and fauna to establish itself.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Ran across this study which seems to indicate Arctic temps higher then thought on average. Report: Study:
Toggle Commented Jul 6, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice