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P-maker
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Rob & Diablo Thank you for giving us this insight, Some folks may have learned how difficult it is to get the details right. I recall discussions with Nick Rayner and other Met Office staff back then in the 90ies how to interpret old Danish Met Office ice charts. I think progress has been made, but I also encourage you to know, that Neven's blog on sea ice is the place to be, when the going gets rough!
John, ” the increase in open water in the Arctic should cause an increase in fall and winter low pressure in the Arctic. “ Could you please substantiate your assumption here (or in the thread proposed by Neven) before you move on. I seem to recollect a situation a few years ago, when autumn weather was dominated by persistent lows in three distinct areas – Barents/Kara, Baffin Bay and Beaufort Sea. Although these areas are not part of the Arctic Ocean proper, this still may constitute an new pattern yet to be seen emerge more permanently, as sea ice disappears.
The North Pole is under attack from melting temperatures and the Tropics are under attack from freezing cold air masses. Although this song was written after the Spanish Civil war and this particular version was recorded after the Breivik shootings, the message is evident. We are “surrounded by enemies” and this blog is our main weapon against it! Please take a deep breath and enjoy: http://www.magcartz.com/v/y-xv56p4AlI/til-ungdommen-sunget-af-sissel-kyrkjeb%C3%B8-norge-mindes-de-77.aspx
Neven & Diablo, thank you for bringing this up. Now - for the first time - I see the purpose of logging ship positions way back. The negative imprint of a lat - long position of a sailing ship is clear evidence that open water is not far away, thus sea ice edge may be close by. I stand corrected. Cheers P
Rob, It’s quite simple. We had a new government last year in June. It is now a new budget year and so apparently the service level goes up. You now have the following options: Please contact: email: climate.services@dmi.dk t: +45 93 51 73 57 email: Meteo.Services@dmi.dk t: +45 39 15 72 67 email:Maritime.Services@dmi.dk t: +45 39 15 72 77 m: +45 51 34 61 11 email: Ice.Services@dmi.dk t: +45 39 15 73 44 m: +45 24 24 35 78 or email: Ocean.Services@dmi.dk t: +45 39 15 72 10 if you can figure out what you really need. I’d bet they play really nice music in your ears, while you wait for your services…
Toggle Commented Jan 18, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Realglacier, sorry to come back to you, but I am absolutely sure these references to Föehn winds were not there an hour ago. This just illustrates the difference between your blog and Neven's blog. In my view, it is about integrity, authencity and honesty. Neven, at some time in the near future, the global energy bill for drying out flooded houses may exceed the energy bills for heating and cooling our homes. Apart from the sad story about the guy who cheated on you with the missing insulation under your floor, this also shows that despite all your good intentions - and having solar PVs to help you dry out your house - this cost should be covered in full by your insurance company.
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Realglacier, had a look at the PROMICE data from 10-17 Jan 2016. It appears that you have been looking at the wrong station and the wrong climatic elements. If you plot the Upe-data (Upernavik upper and lower stations) and select the relative humidity and the wind speed, you will see a fine example of a typical Föehn situation over 12-15 Jan driving the ice out of the fjords. The dry Föehn winds (which are also right now hurling through Neven's flooded house in Austria I presume) may have been caused by some of the harsh lows surrounding Greenland this winter.
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, you did miss my point! It’s fine that Canadian researchers now are able to melt loads of Arctic sea ice in their model. At the moment, their best attempt brings the 5-year average below 1 mio. Km2 in the early 2030ies. They do this mainly by removing the global sulphate forcing from a series of RCP8.5 runs in their model. If they add some yellow carbon forcing from forest fires (yet to come), I am sure they will hit the bottom of our civilization (< 1 mio. Km2) well within the next decade. Cato, I was not offended and your ideas are not mainstream. Your dream may go down the drain one day. Until then, please enjoy the warmer days in the Po valley – and beware of those fine particles. I believe that the PM2.5s are even worse than the PM10s you refer to.
John, can't you see it is somewhat counter-productive to blame the recent global warming on the environmental movements since the 1970ies? The changes from wood to whale oil, coal to oil, gas to bitumen and bonfires to forest fires may have led to numerous regional changes in air pollution levels, which must also have been intimately linked to circulation changes. To even think that climate modellers could include similar changes in their projections is a futile excercise similar to the one you are trying with the Peruvian time series.
John, I’m fully aware that visibility has gone up in Europe since the mid 1970ies. I was just fed up with the insinuation made by our Italian friend, that global warming was the sum of regional artefacts. Ever since I came across this paper: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00866197 , which was openly sponsored by the German coal industry, I have had reservations about linking circulation changes, cloud cover and air pollution. This paper is in my view one of the worst attempt to whitewash air pollution. In those days, the author tried to explain the increasing air pollution (i.e. reductions in the number of sunshine hours) over eastern Germany through some dubious circulation assumptions. I will leave it to you to read the full details behind the paywall. As your own quote says: “…the detailed processes involved have yet to be determined.” and “… this contribution has not been quantified.” To quote myself: ” It is your choice and you decide which way to go.”
Cato Utensils, I'll admit, that the Po Valley has historically not been a very healthy place to live. Apparently, people in the Po Valley and people in the central part of China have realized, that air pollution is not good for anything. However, climate change is not only a local artefact. It is a genuine threat to us all. If you keep up your local pollution levels and scare the shit out of the kids from Syria, you may be able to keep up your own imaginations of the "good life". If, on the other hand, you all help to clear up the dirt you produce, you may be able to attract people from abroad, who will share your wisdom and make a series of benefits to your community. It is your choice and you decide which way to go.
Dear John, please accept todays' first English lesson: It's called cleavage, if your are referring to that pretty young woman in the video. It's called a crevasse, if you are on a glacier. On Arctic sea ice, we call it leads. Leads may lead anywhere, but they hardly help getting rid of multi-year ice at this time of year.
AbbottisGone, it "Melted From the Bottom, now it's gone!" See also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RubBzkZzpUA As you will see in the video (around 0:20 ), there is plenty of snow up there, so it must be darn cold. Hence, it can only be bottom melt at this time of the year...
That would be something like this: Remaining Arctic Sea Ice (by the end of summer) Average........Cubic Km (x 1,000) 1980s...........15 1990s...........13 2000s............9 2010-2015......5 201?............<1 Source: PIOMAS – University of Washington
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry, forgot to include the 1000. Remaining Arctic Sea Ice (by the end of summer) Average........Cubic Km (x 1,000) 1980s...........15 1990s...........13 2000s............9 2010-2014......5 2015.............? ????...............0 Source: PIOMAS – University of Washington
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
EDSV, Appreciate your attempt at simplifying the messages. Still a bit to go though, when it comes length. I would do it like this: Remaining Arctic Sea Ice (by the end of summer) Average Cubic Km 1980s...........15 1990s...........13 2000s............9 2010-2014......5 2015.............? ????...............0 Source: PIOMAS – University of Washington Cheers P
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan & D, sitting in Paris under a considerable column of "precipitable water" is one thing. Looking at the 300 knots jetstream at 250 hPa ( see http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-10.91,55.35,1068 ) makes you wonder what is more important these days. During last nights twisters and rainstorms, three people were killed in France.
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, "hilarious" may not be the right word here. I would rather call it a tragedy, that by the time these ice-breakers will come afloat, the ice may have gone, and they will be better suited for ploughing through the dead bodies in the Mediterranean - see http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/27/africa/migrant-bodies-wash-up-in-libya/ ...
Neven, we are never too old to learn. Here is a quick and dirty translation (no attempt at rhyming): A small low in Beaufort got all attention this year, ’cause strong winds blew swells towards the coast. On their way, they broke remaining floes, as if they were just fragile cakes. Now Barrow is battered, and I’m anxious/excited.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2015 on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, thanks! Again you have done a splendid job summarizing this precarious situation. This morning on the train to work, I couldn't help write a little poem about it (in Danish unfortunately): Et lille lavtryk Beaufort fik al opmærksomhed i år fordi der blæst’ en vældig vind og dønninger på kysten ind. På vejen knak de sidste flager som var de sprøde kager. Nu Banker Barrow blot i brændingen, Mens jeg tydeligt mærker spændingen.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2015 on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
Espen, at the moment I see 183 more or less meaningless contributions to that thread in Ingeniøren. I am as disappointed as you are, that this story has not been picked up by any news media in our country. On the other hand, when I see how the Washington Post treated this story, I came to think of a new term: journalistic reticence.
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2015 on Jakobshavn record retreat at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Espen, because Neven says that this blog is for news and the forum is for discussion. Details of Substage 5e some 125 thousand years ago on a remote tropical island can hardly be called news these days... Cheers P
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2015 on Jakobshavn record retreat at Arctic Sea Ice
Marcel, I just got through the Hansen et al. draft, and I am pretty sure they did not consider the ice fall mechanism. During my reading of the manuscript, I discovered that you had overlooked the contribution from one retrograde glacier basin in Antarctica. Apparently the Cook glacier may over time contribute about half of the SLR of the Totten glacier (possibly 0.5 m in your numbers). Hansen et al. also reminded me that continental droughts may soon contribute a few decimeters to the overall SLR picture, which brings the overall total closer to 13 m. However, when I started to dig into the underlying references, they suddenly opened up a can of worms. On several lines of evidence, I do not concur with the authors. When it comes to the “chevron ridges and wave run-up deposits on Bahamas” (Hearty et al. (1998), I respectfully have to disagree. The interpretation of these morphological units is utter nonsense. Nowhere are these aeolian parabolic features made by waves, and the (apparently wave washed) 2000 t boulders are not even described in the paper. This thread is however not the right place for a discussion like that, so I will eventually have to move the discussion to this thread: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1327.0.html in due course.
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2015 on Jakobshavn record retreat at Arctic Sea Ice
Tor, You are absolutely right. The white "spots" in the lakes are remnants of last year's lake ice. So, it is not the lake bed you are seeing, but the signature of a perennial lake on the ice sheet surface indicating either a large depression or a slow glacier under neath.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2015 on Lakes on a glacier at Arctic Sea Ice
Even Danish media have now picked up this story: see: http://ing.dk/blog/verdens-varmeste-maaned-178151 About 15 cm down, there is a link to this thread. Lookout for the keyword "Jakobshavn" and please ignore the discussion (mainly in Danish).
Toggle Commented Aug 21, 2015 on Jakobshavn record retreat at Arctic Sea Ice