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Neven, the dwindling Arctic sea ice was just featured prominently during the 2016 Olympics opening ceremony in Rio. Their advice was to sow more seeds, plant more trees and save more lives. Our commercial TV channels are having a hard time swallowing these messages... Have a good evening
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, No need to humiliate anyone here. On the contrary, you deserve all our respect for providing your evidence in such a clear way. I’m happy you have allowed an 8 % window to go lower than extent observed in 2012. One aspect, which may eventually help to improve your – already excellent – modelling work, could come from the fact that this year is also clearly a “post-ENSO” year. If you compare your estimates for 1998 and 2007 (also clearly post-ENSO years) , you will see that your estimates were roughly a quarter and half a M sq. km respectively higher than observed. Assuming a 10 year doubling time for such an accumulated post-ENSO heating signal, 2016 could well be the year that your estimate turns out to be about 1 M sq. km too high. Should we end up near 3 M sq. km by September this year, it may be valuable to try to include such a factor in your model. I still consider 2012 to be an outlier due to the GAC.
Chris, I was using a rounded number around and approximate date. To be precise I was referring to the drop in temperature from 258 K to 248 K over a handful of days close to the middle of the day 50 to 100 time frame. A few days later the DMI 80N temperature even dropped an additional 3 K to a level close to 245 K ( = -28 degrees C ). This winter we have hardly moved below 250 K. Anyway, it was just a quick thought I had this morning. I suggest we move back on topic, which is supposedly this season's apparent lack of melt ponds.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, If you take a closer look at the DMI 80N graph for 2012, you will see a nice 10 K "flash freeze" around day # 75. That ought to be enogh to keep the sea ice back then in good shape for the melt season to arrive.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
In order not to confuse things more than they already are, I suggest some kind of housekeeping across this blog and the ASI Forum, Wipneus has increasingly alluded to “melt ponds” seen in pictures of the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice sheet (see latest example here:,154.msg80469.html#msg80469 ). He may have been looking in vain for melt ponds on the sea ice, but then turned to the ice sheet looking for some blue spots to show us. On the glacier, these are normally called melt lakes. Judging from the absence of melt ponds on large swathes of sea ice this spring/early sumemr, one can only speculate whether a combination of thin, salty, rotten sea ice and heavy melting from “blow torches” may have led to an apparent absence of melt ponds this year. The melt water could have drained though the sea ice nearly immediately, since there have been no episodes of “flash freezing” this winter as judged from the DMI 80N graph. On the glacier – au contraire – where the underlying glacier ice is thick, old and solid, these huge amounts of melt water have so far not been able to make it to the bottom, thus lakes are still blue and running full. Just a thought…
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, point taken Could DMI have run into an simple "overflow" problem?. Browsing through the various DMI charts, I came to notice that SST anomalies off SW Alaska and in the NE Baltic both exceeded 4 deg C yesterday. I also noticed that the SST anomaly scale on the Arctic SST anomaly map (yesterday) was different from the other anomaly scales. Hence I came to think of a simple programmer's bug, but who would have thought about that without your Divine intervention John?
Toggle Commented May 30, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Navegante, “Are there two diffetent urls perhaps?” Neven, In a Neoliberal context, DMI is heavily financed by lucrative advertisement contracts. Hence DMI is trying to attract traffic to their web site, which will be exposed to ads. Recent examples on their web site were holiday offers on a low-lying island in the Indian Ocean and another ad about how to negotiate financial risks these days. If you go to this site: and choose ‘Two days before Tomorrow’ (i.e. yesterday), you will get something like an observation-based SST anomaly map for the Arctic, that is if you get your set points right. DMI has unfortunately decided to extend their anomaly scale to the extremes of -50 deg C and + 20 deg C – both are meaningless today and they will only give you a pale yellow and a pale green approximation of reality. Sorry to say this again, but business interests have taken over both the Weather Channel and now apparently DMI as well…
Toggle Commented May 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne: ” +1 or 2 C surface weather is very warm near the Pole” I really like your suggested new indicator. If some of the good folks at DMI would be kind enough to take a couple of hours off to calculate the following indicator each year since 1958 and post the number here, my guess would be that such a list of numbers would spur an intensive activity amongst this crowd: Indicator: Date#80N>0C (Date number, when the average Arctic air temperature above 80 degrees North crosses 0 degrees Celsius for five consecutive days) This would give us a fairly robust number for when nearly all the snow and multi-year ice surfaces are melting in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented May 15, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob & Diablo Let me have a guess: Summer cloud cover in the Nordic Seas region increased by some 3-5 % during the 1950- 1970ies – most likely due to increasing concentration of aerosols (pollution from higher chimneys + higher consumption of dirtier fossil fuels + fewer environmental restrictions). Since then, air pollution levels have generally improved in the region and cloud cover is now back at a more natural level. The collapse of the Soviet Union around 1990 also helped to improve this situation. More clouds during the summer months will protect the ice from melting, whereas more clouds in the dark winter months will inhibit freezing. Voila!
Leo is somehow also an "exceptional exception" - please enjoy: Have a nice day
Toggle Commented Feb 29, 2016 on An exceptional exception at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you! P
John, Again, referring you to Wikipedia: I picked the following ACE numbers for 2015 in each of the basins you mention (source in bracket): Atlantic 62 (National Hurricane Center) East Pacific 282 (?) West Pacific 290 (JMA) The West Pacific # was the highest observed, the East Pacific was the second highest observed and the Atlantic number came in as the 33rd highest observed. I will remind you, that this thread is about the Global sea ice extent record minimum, so I suggest you take this debate somewhere else, unless it is of direct relevance for the record minimum.
John, According to Wikipedia, you seem to have missed this point; “The 2015 Pacific hurricane season was the second most active Pacific hurricane season on record. It produced a record 31 tropical depressions that developed, of which 26 became named storms, just shy of the record 27 set in 1992. A record-tying 16 became hurricanes, and a record 11 storms became major hurricanes throughout the season. The year featured record-high activity in the Central Pacific—the portion of the Eastern Pacific defined between the International Dateline and 140°W—with fifteen tropical cyclones forming in or entering the basin.[1] Moreover, the season was the second most active season in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, with a total of 284 ACE units.” I suggest you get your facts sorted out before you start messing around with statements like: “The last four years (2012-2015) have all seen very low occurrence, strength and duration of tropical hurricanes and typhones,” If you had been trying to survive last year’s devastating cyclones in e.g. the Philippines or Taiwan, you may have phrased your wrong assumption differently. You may have a point in the Atlantic, that the absence of major Tropical cyclones in this basin may have contributed to the pile-up of hot waters off the US east coast, which may have laid the foundation for a handful of major heat incursions into the Arctic this winter.
Jdallen: ”cognitive dissonance” was my key phrase. Honestly, I don’t know why Jim “the Huntsman” and Neven “ the Saviour” keeps on the palaver with these guys over on the black side of sanity. I used to work at DMI. In those days, there were climate risk deniers, climate septics and outright liars. I am not sure that lengthy blog posts about the details of 15 versus 30 % ice cover is worth the effort. Somehow I get the feeling that the timing is essential. In this respect I also refer you to the splendid talk of Kevin Anderson (try this at home with your kids: ). The timing issue is essential, if you want to understand why one particular DMI person has decided to pull the trigger on the 30 % graph. This guy is not stupid and (s)he has all along been aware that this day would come, that both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent would hit rock bottom. Call it conspiracy or not, the fact is that the removal of the 30 % graph is not a coincidence. It is very well timed to create the impression that a “conspiracy” is about to unfold at the same time as the globe shit hits the fan.
Toggle Commented Feb 22, 2016 on Grasping at uncorrected straws at Arctic Sea Ice
Came across the motion picture: “Snow White and the Huntsman” this evening. Somehow the plot reminded me of this thread: Jim, the Huntsman occasionally stops by to entertain us about his fight with the evil bastards on the other side. Sometimes, he is being helped by the dwarfs here. In one scene, the evil stepmother is even covered in black greasy oil. I like the kind of symbolism, but I find it hard to digest all the super natural gimmicks and I find it increasingly difficult to follow the various plots all the way in the film and at WUWT... What actually happened during the shooting of this movie also has bearings on the sequel: “The Huntsman: Winter’s War” due to be released 22 April this year. In the trailer seen here: you will notice a young girl riding a polar bear. It turned out that the director of the first movie was having an affair with Snow White. Hence, both the Director and the actress Kristine something was left out in the cold for the follow-up. Shit happens as they say in the trenches. The fact is that Jim Hunt, our Huntsman at the GWPF, is right now fighting a heroic fight with Benny Pisser over at the other site. I wish him all the best, but also remain concerned about his ability to separate facts from fiction, if he is watching this kind of film every night. PS Already now I have to warn you that next Friday, our national broadcasting comapny has announced that they will show the film : “A-Team”. This is starting to look like a conspiracy…
Rob & Diablo Thank you for giving us this insight, Some folks may have learned how difficult it is to get the details right. I recall discussions with Nick Rayner and other Met Office staff back then in the 90ies how to interpret old Danish Met Office ice charts. I think progress has been made, but I also encourage you to know, that Neven's blog on sea ice is the place to be, when the going gets rough!
John, ” the increase in open water in the Arctic should cause an increase in fall and winter low pressure in the Arctic. “ Could you please substantiate your assumption here (or in the thread proposed by Neven) before you move on. I seem to recollect a situation a few years ago, when autumn weather was dominated by persistent lows in three distinct areas – Barents/Kara, Baffin Bay and Beaufort Sea. Although these areas are not part of the Arctic Ocean proper, this still may constitute an new pattern yet to be seen emerge more permanently, as sea ice disappears.
The North Pole is under attack from melting temperatures and the Tropics are under attack from freezing cold air masses. Although this song was written after the Spanish Civil war and this particular version was recorded after the Breivik shootings, the message is evident. We are “surrounded by enemies” and this blog is our main weapon against it! Please take a deep breath and enjoy:
Neven & Diablo, thank you for bringing this up. Now - for the first time - I see the purpose of logging ship positions way back. The negative imprint of a lat - long position of a sailing ship is clear evidence that open water is not far away, thus sea ice edge may be close by. I stand corrected. Cheers P
Rob, It’s quite simple. We had a new government last year in June. It is now a new budget year and so apparently the service level goes up. You now have the following options: Please contact: email: t: +45 93 51 73 57 email: t: +45 39 15 72 67 t: +45 39 15 72 77 m: +45 51 34 61 11 email: t: +45 39 15 73 44 m: +45 24 24 35 78 or email: t: +45 39 15 72 10 if you can figure out what you really need. I’d bet they play really nice music in your ears, while you wait for your services…
Toggle Commented Jan 18, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Realglacier, sorry to come back to you, but I am absolutely sure these references to Föehn winds were not there an hour ago. This just illustrates the difference between your blog and Neven's blog. In my view, it is about integrity, authencity and honesty. Neven, at some time in the near future, the global energy bill for drying out flooded houses may exceed the energy bills for heating and cooling our homes. Apart from the sad story about the guy who cheated on you with the missing insulation under your floor, this also shows that despite all your good intentions - and having solar PVs to help you dry out your house - this cost should be covered in full by your insurance company.
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Realglacier, had a look at the PROMICE data from 10-17 Jan 2016. It appears that you have been looking at the wrong station and the wrong climatic elements. If you plot the Upe-data (Upernavik upper and lower stations) and select the relative humidity and the wind speed, you will see a fine example of a typical Föehn situation over 12-15 Jan driving the ice out of the fjords. The dry Föehn winds (which are also right now hurling through Neven's flooded house in Austria I presume) may have been caused by some of the harsh lows surrounding Greenland this winter.
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, you did miss my point! It’s fine that Canadian researchers now are able to melt loads of Arctic sea ice in their model. At the moment, their best attempt brings the 5-year average below 1 mio. Km2 in the early 2030ies. They do this mainly by removing the global sulphate forcing from a series of RCP8.5 runs in their model. If they add some yellow carbon forcing from forest fires (yet to come), I am sure they will hit the bottom of our civilization (< 1 mio. Km2) well within the next decade. Cato, I was not offended and your ideas are not mainstream. Your dream may go down the drain one day. Until then, please enjoy the warmer days in the Po valley – and beware of those fine particles. I believe that the PM2.5s are even worse than the PM10s you refer to.
John, can't you see it is somewhat counter-productive to blame the recent global warming on the environmental movements since the 1970ies? The changes from wood to whale oil, coal to oil, gas to bitumen and bonfires to forest fires may have led to numerous regional changes in air pollution levels, which must also have been intimately linked to circulation changes. To even think that climate modellers could include similar changes in their projections is a futile excercise similar to the one you are trying with the Peruvian time series.
John, I’m fully aware that visibility has gone up in Europe since the mid 1970ies. I was just fed up with the insinuation made by our Italian friend, that global warming was the sum of regional artefacts. Ever since I came across this paper: , which was openly sponsored by the German coal industry, I have had reservations about linking circulation changes, cloud cover and air pollution. This paper is in my view one of the worst attempt to whitewash air pollution. In those days, the author tried to explain the increasing air pollution (i.e. reductions in the number of sunshine hours) over eastern Germany through some dubious circulation assumptions. I will leave it to you to read the full details behind the paywall. As your own quote says: “…the detailed processes involved have yet to be determined.” and “… this contribution has not been quantified.” To quote myself: ” It is your choice and you decide which way to go.”