This is P-maker's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following P-maker's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Recent Activity
Bill, since the brain is just a big muscle, it could somehow benefit from a massage from time to time. I think I meant message above, but you got the point anyway. Cheers P
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT, That is a fine massage for a grandson, but when it comes down to your own son and the shit will hit the fan just around the corner, things may look differently. Part of the problem is that my son recentlly finished his education, but right now is beginning to realize that his education did not prepare him for neither the Trump-isolationism nor the Arctic sea ice vanishing at record speed.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT: "They will also be the next generation of CEO's and Directors." I am not so sure. Even though you and I - and maybe others - have lured ourselves into thinking that this will be the case, I have heard from reliable sources, that the recent US tragedy has led to depression amongst those well educated youngsters, whom you have such high hopes for. What do you do, when they do not know enough about sea ice, but know too much about previous world wars? If they see the patterns from WW I and WW II repeat themselves in front of their own eyes, what would your advice be under these circumstances?.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil T: "I'm just going to sit back and watch now." Please don't. Now is the time to rise and shine, use your intellect to combat stupidity and fight for your ca(u)se. Being (almost) right in about 10 years time is not going to help anyone besides you. Every day counts from now on...
Toggle Commented Nov 17, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John Happy to see you re-surface after three years of dormancy. It will be quite interesting to see the Trump advisors turn to building resilient infrastructures, sustainable transport solutions and healthy fastfood for the Trump supporters. Cheers P
Toggle Commented Nov 10, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, quite lyrical, but still a splendid summary of what actually happened. Thanks!
Rob, Amazing what you and others have achieved through an open and friendly dialogue in this thread. To me it will be the "Dekker et al., 2016" series until further evidence appears.
Jim, You will have to follow the rules. Once you’re out you’re out. However, should the Scottish people decide otherwise to leave the UK and join the EU again, the road is open for all kinds of minority fractions to join, provided the EU will allow it. But remember, it goes both ways. If a minority like the Bretons, the Basques or FC Barcelona suddenly starts to exit also, you will probably face stiff head winds no matter how legitimate your demands for EU-membership are. On the contrary, after reading some of the “walk the talk” threads, I imagine it is better to be self-reliant in SW England than to be member of a dysfunctional community. I will promise to be an ambassador for whichever cause you may come up with, as long as it does not involve the media in your country. Once upon a time there was something rotten in the state of Denmark. Now your media outlets have decided to set the standards so low that even words are no longer adequate to describe the minimum.
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, sorry mate After the Brexit, you are all on your own. In the old days, in a fog situation, the "continent was isolated". Now, you are left with your own media outlets - God Bless You - and the Yanks are flanking out with their own even poorer media outlets. I really couldn't care less.
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Since this place is also for news, I just wanted to lead your attention to this recent tragedy in Norway: (in Norwegian) Apparently 322 reindeer were killed at once the other day, presumably struck by lightning. This tragedy comes after 15 lone male reindeer have been found dead in 2014 and 2015, also in Norway. The mysterious deaths begs the question, whether old survival strategies for reindeer are still valid? If you are a lone male outside the herd, you should not stand alone on a high rock during thunderstorms. If you are part of a herd of young and/or a female reindeer, you should not stand so close to your mates during thunderstorms.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, the dwindling Arctic sea ice was just featured prominently during the 2016 Olympics opening ceremony in Rio. Their advice was to sow more seeds, plant more trees and save more lives. Our commercial TV channels are having a hard time swallowing these messages... Have a good evening
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, No need to humiliate anyone here. On the contrary, you deserve all our respect for providing your evidence in such a clear way. I’m happy you have allowed an 8 % window to go lower than extent observed in 2012. One aspect, which may eventually help to improve your – already excellent – modelling work, could come from the fact that this year is also clearly a “post-ENSO” year. If you compare your estimates for 1998 and 2007 (also clearly post-ENSO years) , you will see that your estimates were roughly a quarter and half a M sq. km respectively higher than observed. Assuming a 10 year doubling time for such an accumulated post-ENSO heating signal, 2016 could well be the year that your estimate turns out to be about 1 M sq. km too high. Should we end up near 3 M sq. km by September this year, it may be valuable to try to include such a factor in your model. I still consider 2012 to be an outlier due to the GAC.
Chris, I was using a rounded number around and approximate date. To be precise I was referring to the drop in temperature from 258 K to 248 K over a handful of days close to the middle of the day 50 to 100 time frame. A few days later the DMI 80N temperature even dropped an additional 3 K to a level close to 245 K ( = -28 degrees C ). This winter we have hardly moved below 250 K. Anyway, it was just a quick thought I had this morning. I suggest we move back on topic, which is supposedly this season's apparent lack of melt ponds.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, If you take a closer look at the DMI 80N graph for 2012, you will see a nice 10 K "flash freeze" around day # 75. That ought to be enogh to keep the sea ice back then in good shape for the melt season to arrive.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
In order not to confuse things more than they already are, I suggest some kind of housekeeping across this blog and the ASI Forum, Wipneus has increasingly alluded to “melt ponds” seen in pictures of the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice sheet (see latest example here:,154.msg80469.html#msg80469 ). He may have been looking in vain for melt ponds on the sea ice, but then turned to the ice sheet looking for some blue spots to show us. On the glacier, these are normally called melt lakes. Judging from the absence of melt ponds on large swathes of sea ice this spring/early sumemr, one can only speculate whether a combination of thin, salty, rotten sea ice and heavy melting from “blow torches” may have led to an apparent absence of melt ponds this year. The melt water could have drained though the sea ice nearly immediately, since there have been no episodes of “flash freezing” this winter as judged from the DMI 80N graph. On the glacier – au contraire – where the underlying glacier ice is thick, old and solid, these huge amounts of melt water have so far not been able to make it to the bottom, thus lakes are still blue and running full. Just a thought…
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, point taken Could DMI have run into an simple "overflow" problem?. Browsing through the various DMI charts, I came to notice that SST anomalies off SW Alaska and in the NE Baltic both exceeded 4 deg C yesterday. I also noticed that the SST anomaly scale on the Arctic SST anomaly map (yesterday) was different from the other anomaly scales. Hence I came to think of a simple programmer's bug, but who would have thought about that without your Divine intervention John?
Toggle Commented May 30, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Navegante, “Are there two diffetent urls perhaps?” Neven, In a Neoliberal context, DMI is heavily financed by lucrative advertisement contracts. Hence DMI is trying to attract traffic to their web site, which will be exposed to ads. Recent examples on their web site were holiday offers on a low-lying island in the Indian Ocean and another ad about how to negotiate financial risks these days. If you go to this site: and choose ‘Two days before Tomorrow’ (i.e. yesterday), you will get something like an observation-based SST anomaly map for the Arctic, that is if you get your set points right. DMI has unfortunately decided to extend their anomaly scale to the extremes of -50 deg C and + 20 deg C – both are meaningless today and they will only give you a pale yellow and a pale green approximation of reality. Sorry to say this again, but business interests have taken over both the Weather Channel and now apparently DMI as well…
Toggle Commented May 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne: ” +1 or 2 C surface weather is very warm near the Pole” I really like your suggested new indicator. If some of the good folks at DMI would be kind enough to take a couple of hours off to calculate the following indicator each year since 1958 and post the number here, my guess would be that such a list of numbers would spur an intensive activity amongst this crowd: Indicator: Date#80N>0C (Date number, when the average Arctic air temperature above 80 degrees North crosses 0 degrees Celsius for five consecutive days) This would give us a fairly robust number for when nearly all the snow and multi-year ice surfaces are melting in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented May 15, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob & Diablo Let me have a guess: Summer cloud cover in the Nordic Seas region increased by some 3-5 % during the 1950- 1970ies – most likely due to increasing concentration of aerosols (pollution from higher chimneys + higher consumption of dirtier fossil fuels + fewer environmental restrictions). Since then, air pollution levels have generally improved in the region and cloud cover is now back at a more natural level. The collapse of the Soviet Union around 1990 also helped to improve this situation. More clouds during the summer months will protect the ice from melting, whereas more clouds in the dark winter months will inhibit freezing. Voila!
Leo is somehow also an "exceptional exception" - please enjoy: Have a nice day
Toggle Commented Feb 29, 2016 on An exceptional exception at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you! P
John, Again, referring you to Wikipedia: I picked the following ACE numbers for 2015 in each of the basins you mention (source in bracket): Atlantic 62 (National Hurricane Center) East Pacific 282 (?) West Pacific 290 (JMA) The West Pacific # was the highest observed, the East Pacific was the second highest observed and the Atlantic number came in as the 33rd highest observed. I will remind you, that this thread is about the Global sea ice extent record minimum, so I suggest you take this debate somewhere else, unless it is of direct relevance for the record minimum.
John, According to Wikipedia, you seem to have missed this point; “The 2015 Pacific hurricane season was the second most active Pacific hurricane season on record. It produced a record 31 tropical depressions that developed, of which 26 became named storms, just shy of the record 27 set in 1992. A record-tying 16 became hurricanes, and a record 11 storms became major hurricanes throughout the season. The year featured record-high activity in the Central Pacific—the portion of the Eastern Pacific defined between the International Dateline and 140°W—with fifteen tropical cyclones forming in or entering the basin.[1] Moreover, the season was the second most active season in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, with a total of 284 ACE units.” I suggest you get your facts sorted out before you start messing around with statements like: “The last four years (2012-2015) have all seen very low occurrence, strength and duration of tropical hurricanes and typhones,” If you had been trying to survive last year’s devastating cyclones in e.g. the Philippines or Taiwan, you may have phrased your wrong assumption differently. You may have a point in the Atlantic, that the absence of major Tropical cyclones in this basin may have contributed to the pile-up of hot waters off the US east coast, which may have laid the foundation for a handful of major heat incursions into the Arctic this winter.
Jdallen: ”cognitive dissonance” was my key phrase. Honestly, I don’t know why Jim “the Huntsman” and Neven “ the Saviour” keeps on the palaver with these guys over on the black side of sanity. I used to work at DMI. In those days, there were climate risk deniers, climate septics and outright liars. I am not sure that lengthy blog posts about the details of 15 versus 30 % ice cover is worth the effort. Somehow I get the feeling that the timing is essential. In this respect I also refer you to the splendid talk of Kevin Anderson (try this at home with your kids: ). The timing issue is essential, if you want to understand why one particular DMI person has decided to pull the trigger on the 30 % graph. This guy is not stupid and (s)he has all along been aware that this day would come, that both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent would hit rock bottom. Call it conspiracy or not, the fact is that the removal of the 30 % graph is not a coincidence. It is very well timed to create the impression that a “conspiracy” is about to unfold at the same time as the globe shit hits the fan.
Toggle Commented Feb 22, 2016 on Grasping at uncorrected straws at Arctic Sea Ice
Came across the motion picture: “Snow White and the Huntsman” this evening. Somehow the plot reminded me of this thread: Jim, the Huntsman occasionally stops by to entertain us about his fight with the evil bastards on the other side. Sometimes, he is being helped by the dwarfs here. In one scene, the evil stepmother is even covered in black greasy oil. I like the kind of symbolism, but I find it hard to digest all the super natural gimmicks and I find it increasingly difficult to follow the various plots all the way in the film and at WUWT... What actually happened during the shooting of this movie also has bearings on the sequel: “The Huntsman: Winter’s War” due to be released 22 April this year. In the trailer seen here: you will notice a young girl riding a polar bear. It turned out that the director of the first movie was having an affair with Snow White. Hence, both the Director and the actress Kristine something was left out in the cold for the follow-up. Shit happens as they say in the trenches. The fact is that Jim Hunt, our Huntsman at the GWPF, is right now fighting a heroic fight with Benny Pisser over at the other site. I wish him all the best, but also remain concerned about his ability to separate facts from fiction, if he is watching this kind of film every night. PS Already now I have to warn you that next Friday, our national broadcasting comapny has announced that they will show the film : “A-Team”. This is starting to look like a conspiracy…