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Paddy
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How low do we think it's possible for area to go? With maybe 2 million to lose in Antarctica, and not much to gain in the Arctic with the storm that's coming, I wouldn't be surprised if it went below 13 million myself.
2017 so far is there on the left hand side of the graphs, Hans. Unless you mean the volume chart, for which we won't have a January figure until feb
We live in interesting times.
Apologies... I hadn't checked DMI temperatures in the past week, and should note that they're now dropping a little. Still not great, mind you.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Given how sharply 2013 January sea ice volume climbed, how leisurely 2017 January sea ice extent is now climbing, and current DMI temperatures, I'd hazard a guess that the gap between current levels and the previous record low may be growing still.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
David, Population growth has been pretty linear around 75 to 80 million people a year from 1980 to 2015. It's now expected to slow down as a much higher proportion of people worldwide become elderly, with death rates expected to climb in consequence while birth rates continue to fall. But... There are still a number of places worldwide where some fundamental drivers of the demographic transition to a low fertility rate population just aren't there. Particularly drivers such as women's access to education, work and contraception. And if we support enabling such access further, we may be able to v sightly speed the transition and thus also put the brakes on population growth very slightly sharper.
Toggle Commented Jan 5, 2017 on Global warming 2016: Arctic spin at Arctic Sea Ice
Anyone else guessing that a new record low global sea ice area below 14 million is not unlikely in Jan/Feb 2017? Between temps staying high in the Arctic and sea ice cover having been very low in the first months of peak insulation in the south, I wouldn't be betting on either hemisphere normalising very soon.
It seems like a very interesting shift. However, the increase in ability to detect arctic thunderstorms over the period (particularly the documented step change in 2012, although I'd imagine there must have been other smaller changes over the period) make it a little hard to judge what actual degree of change there was in their size, latitude, and incidence. Does anyone know more about the source of this data, and to what extent our ability to detect thunderstorms up there has changed?
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
It seems like a very interesting shift. However, the increase in ability to detect arctic thunderstorms over the period (particularly the documented step change in 2012, although I'd imagine there may have been other smaller changes over the period) make it a little hard to judge what actual degree of change there was in their size, latitude, and incidence. Does anyone know more about the source of this data, and to what extent our ability to detect thunderstorms up there has changed?
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2016 on Iced lightning at Arctic Sea Ice
Link to numbers here: http://www.ciffc.ca/rss/report_en
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat at Arctic Sea Ice
@Colorado Bob, Indeed. With 1.5 million hectares burnt in the USA (mainly Alaska) so far this year and 2.4 million hectares burnt in Canada (principally Saskatchewan but generally all over the north and west of the country), and no end in sight on either side of the border, this looks like a big year for wildfires.
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat at Arctic Sea Ice
So an atypical year, with lots of ice melting in situ but very little export. @Jim Hunt, Those wildfires may not be Alaskan. Millions of hectares have been ablaze in Canada too. http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat at Arctic Sea Ice
I'd been thinking that Greenland melt looked like stalling again this year. Maybe not though, based on this forecast.
We had a sudden, sharp decline in Arctic ice in 2012. I didn't see many apathetic people wake up then.
@Bill, The discussion was a long and messy one in the comments on a blog article... somewhere. I remember they based their argument on this graph (or at least the most recent part of it) though: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
I won't be hoping for unambiguous proof myself, jdallen. Particularly given how many people report their beliefs actually being strengthened by contradictory evidence. Also, ice area and extent have so much noise and so many disparate measures as indicators that people can easily interpret it selectively and seize on apparently contradictory "evidence"; the latest one that sceptics have been wheeling out in debate is that global sea ice area has been equal to the 1979-2008 average for the past two years (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg). Never mind that they liked to completely ignore it for the previous two years, when it was well below said average, or that if you drew a regression line through the whole history, it would go down :S
Let's have an alternative, shorter term betting game: is this downwards pre-melt season trend in declining sea ice cover going to carry on, flatten out, or bounce back a little? Please make your predictions between now and the 15th of March as to the sea ice extent (NSIDC) on 01.04.2015. Whoever guesses closest to the actual amount wins the prize of one virtual cookie. I'm going to start the guessing game at a nice, round, 14.00 million square km. (A bit of a drop further from where it is now, but not much).
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Going to try not to get too exciting about this myself, as we're still in the lower-insolation half of the year. (But I know I'll be checking back come the equinox in 11 days time to see if we're still at record-breakingly low levels :) )
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
@NJSnowFan, We looked into the potential impact of increased ship traffic, including but not limited to ice breakers, over on the sea ice forums, and based on some basic number-crunching it really didn't look like they could account for very much of the melt. @Hans Verbeek "Anyway, it costs a lot of diesel fuel to break up Arctic seaice. Peakoil will also mean peak-icebreaker. ;-)" Not necessarily; the biggest ones are nuclear-powered.
@Pete, 5.632 million square km as of August 27th (you can see the most recently reported extent by scrolling over this graph: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/). I now reckon we were way out, and the September average will be about 5 to 5.3 million square km.
@John, I completely agree. I wouldn't expect to see zero ice in winter at any point in the next hundred years - months of sunless winter are sure to freeze at least a thin layer of the ocean surface, even if the amount formed continues to slowly fall, and melts away earlier each year. Even if arctic temperatures went up 10 degrees celsius, they'd still be regularly going below -30 degrees. So why would the ice stop forming?
Does anyone know what impact the increased shipping, drilling, harbour investment, fishing and other activity as the ice melts is expected to have on the rate at which what ice is left declines? Because such activity should probably start rising to a peak now... and I have to wonder if this particular positive feedback mechanism may not have been one of the reasons last year's melt went on as long as it did.
4.2m again. PIOMAS volume seems to be lagging a long way behind the last couple of years, meaning a big catch-up would be needed to get close to last year. But with all that first year ice, there should still be a big melt to come... so I'm still betting it'll reach 2nd place, if only barely. (BTW, I really don't know all that much about what I'm talking about).
Also, my congratulations on some excellent work :)
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2013 on Problematic predictions 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Do any intrepid mathematicians want to see if including a variable for ice thickness improves the model further? (Thinner ice should melt faster, after all).
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2013 on Problematic predictions 2 at Arctic Sea Ice