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... why are you reading this?
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From the NSIDC writeup: 'This winter the multiyear ice makes up 43% of the icepack compared to only 30% in 2013. While this is a large increase, and may portend a more extensive September ice cover this year compared to last year, the fraction of the Arctic Ocean consisting of multiyear ice remains less than that at the beginning of the 2007 melt season (46%) when a large amount of the multiyear ice melted. The percentage of the Arctic Ocean consisting of ice at least five years or older remains at only 7%, half of what it was in February 2007. Moreover, a large area of the multiyear ice has drifted to the southern Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea (north of Alaska and the Lena River delta), where warm conditions are likely to exist later in the year.'
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
"If the sun shines directly overhead at a particular moment, that’s peak insolation, and the rule-of-thumb value for that is 1000 W/m^2. So based on that, the Greenland ice sheet could melt away from sun alone, in not much longer than a century." ... you mean, if the sun shone directly overhead, 24-7, 12 months a year? n the reason it doesn't melt so fast is that the sun doesn't?
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
wouldn't have to be a global carbon tax at first. if eg the EU introduced one, it could apply the same tax as an tariff on embedded carbon in imported products. legal under WTO rules as long as the same tax rate is applied to all goods, and then the incentive is there for firms exporting to the EU to improve energy efficiency; then they put pressure on their governments to introduce similar tax at home because they'll have an advantage if it does
'it would also therefore only be a question of time, before weather turns less favorable, and we will see ice area and volume being reduced at high rates once again' ... then you haven't really joined the recovery team, have you? :)
'but the rate of loss will continue to accelerate until about 2065 when the Thermohaline Current drops to about 1/12th of its current rate.' ... do you have a citation for that?
Toggle Commented Oct 4, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
ring fencing carbon tax revenues to directly subsidise renewables would make sense, if that's what you mean.
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT, I'm not sure if your post is logically coherent and I've just misunderstood it, and I don't want to go off topic either, but the kind of transformation in energy supply you are talking about will cost horribly large amounts of money. nobody will be willing to invest in low carbon technology unless we put a substantial price on carbon. it just wont happen. and that means a tax, or some kind of cap and trade. in my opinion, of the two, a steadily escalating tax starting from a low base makes far more sense; you can disagree with that if you want to, but the point is that right now carbon fuels are the cheapest, if you discount future environmental costs. switching to clean energy will inevitably look like a price increase in the short term, whichever way you dress it up
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
am I the only one suspecting that the use of Inuit names, like Aipaloovik and Amaqjuag, will never catch on with a wider audience?
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
@ wanderer: I mean, it depends what kind of explanation you want. The graph you link to shows the sudden cold snap starting around day 120 that first took temps below the average; the easiest response is that that's just weather. Then temps rose rapidly, albeit staying slightly below average, and we can partly blame the PAC for the fact that temps have stayed cold the last few weeks. If you think this relatively long sequence of colder than usual weather is weird or unexpected, either handwave it away as a statistical fluke, add it to the growing list of unusual NH weather, or see it as a possible precursor of a new Arctic summer regime in which the battered icepack finally gets some respite. If what you really want is an explanation based on long-term climate oscillations, forcings, et al., well good luck. Ask the UK Met Office to call another conference, maybe :)
@Chris Biscan - don't be ridiculous, and there is no need to question people's intelligence. we know there is also a think called solar insolation. you do not have a unique understanding of what is going on. any prediction that is approximately in line with the decade-long downward trend is essentially as good as any other, because we don't know what the ultimate effects of the cyclone will turn out to be, or, as you admit yourself, what the weather will do for the rest of the summer. there is no point pretending otherwise
3.5 Mkm^2 approximate extrapolation of the downward trend, nudged upwards due to the slow start. @Chris Biscan: please just let people post their guesses. the last thing this thread needs is off-topic debate
... and apart from the reduced drag, 'blowing' bubbles in the eyes of the pursuing leopard seal won't hurt either :) every little helps
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
should have googled it first: [] has more
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
Fufufunknknk, no idea, but that's no good reason not to speculate recklessly - I don't believe it's been photoshopped, could be air compressed and trapped between the feathers by water column pressure expanding and escaping as the bird rapidly surfaces?
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
right now there is a virtually perfect correlation between estimated extent and bin popularity (the higher the estimate, the more people like it) - watt is up with that, indeed
Peter Ellis just made the point that Hudson and Ohkotsk are also behind schedule compared to recent years, and they will make no difference to the final area/extent. We're approaching the cliff alright, the only question is how steep and high it will be
Toggle Commented Jun 4, 2013 on New map on the block at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, several people have commented on the possibility that colder than normal temperatures might partly explain the apparently slow melt. It's not that simple, tho - divergence is very obviously also happening
Toggle Commented Jun 4, 2013 on New map on the block at Arctic Sea Ice
"I revise mine to 5.5 million + ( extent) and 3.9 million + (area)" ... ... ... an unusually large amount of the ice area is thin FYI. it will melt.
Toggle Commented May 29, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start at Arctic Sea Ice
the slow melt so far is no surprise given the DMI 80N temp chart - this May has been quite a bit colder than other recent years ( weather is weather. well, and the less said about earlier predictions of a complete melt-out this summer the better - you know who you are
Toggle Commented May 28, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start at Arctic Sea Ice
and welcome back A-team, you have been missed. nice to see you're not hoping to play the good guy in this years instalment of the franchise, as well :o)
Toggle Commented May 17, 2013 on Party like it's 1989 at Arctic Sea Ice
yes I was going to mention that the other day. the comments section is a great read now :)
Toggle Commented May 17, 2013 on Party like it's 1989 at Arctic Sea Ice
I don't think it's really true that deniers can get their message out in a headline, while realists have to produce a thesis - what is true is that deniers are much better at 'framing' and spinning, and are not afraid of telling barefaced lies. For example, you could rebut Solomon's article with a simple 'I see you've conveniently forgotten that last September saw the lowest amount* of Arctic sea ice ever recorded. Oh, and that the six biggest summer melts have all occurred in the last six years ... you do know the difference between summer and winter, right?' Well, and I'm not sure how effective his little piece of nonsense was, either. Unless you've already decided climate change isn't happening, you very likely know from news reports that the Arctic is melting. We know that environmentalists who start to cry wolf will soon lose their audience; if anyone read Solomon's article and wondered what the heck was going on, I assume they'll figure it out when they see the news report of this summer's record melt (assuming it does actually get reported, of course ...) *DON'T use words like 'extent' or 'volume'
Toggle Commented May 16, 2013 on Party like it's 1989 at Arctic Sea Ice
I mean, it's a great article, but I'm not happy with the phrase 'how cleverly the misdirection is perpetrated'. 'how wilfully perverse and far beyond shame you would have to be to put your name to such complete and utter tripe', might have been closer to the mark. don't tell these people they're clever. they're not clever. well, and, possibly a bit too long for mr solomons target audience to read through to the end, as well, assuming any of them actually are genuinely misinformed
Toggle Commented May 13, 2013 on Party like it's 1989 at Arctic Sea Ice
Paul, ship numbers won't jump from 60 to 1000s within a year or two. and even if they did, you know how big the Arctic Ocean is. the mixing due to shipping, compared to the mixing due to wind/wave etc action, will be somewhere between negligible and nonexistent
3.0 Mkm^2 WAG. there's no model which can predict this with half-decent accuracy, and that's before we get to the influence of random weather effects (tho at least we're guessing monthly extent rather than daily, when we might as well be playing pin the tail on the donkey). if the volume decline continues then it will be reflected in extent, but how that will work out exactly is anyone's guess