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sofouuk
... why are you reading this?
Recent Activity
Wipneus has recently commented on the high amount of ice still blocking the northwest passage - there's certainly more than in most recent years, and if it's open in a week's time I'll eat my proverbial hat :-/ http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.1150.html#lastPost
nice to see a confident prediction, but I'll believe it when I see it :-/
Hans, every country's 'major goal' is GDP growth, especially poor ones, which china still is. and expecting them to hold emissions steady while western countries emit so much per person is naive in the extreme - there is also the fact that about 25% of China's total CO2 emissions are embodied in products exported to US/EU/Japan, and another major chunk result from ongoing urbanization. what do you expect them to do, stop burning coal and carry on splashing around in the paddy fields? if high-income countries aren't taking significant action, why should anyone else?
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
saying 'they're responsible for their own population' is a bit harsh - what are they supposed to do, cull them every few years? clearly per capita emissions are the only fair comparison, however china gets far less $value for each unit CO2 emitted, and clearly coal will dominate the energy mix for plenty of time to come - nuclear n renewables are still a sideshow
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
"The coincidence is quite note worthy but could just be completely coincidental" by definition, as it were - clearly there is no causal connection :-/
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
... come on. “The origins of, and mechanisms behind, projected Arctic moistening are still unclear, however. Is it caused by an intensified local Arctic hydrological cycle19, or does it result from a global hydrological response to altered evaporation rates and moisture fluxes in lower latitudes8? This is an important issue, for several reasons: (1) if the local response dominates, Arctic precipitation may be strongly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice retreat; (2) in that case the effect on Arctic Ocean freshening will probably be limited because evaporation and precipitation effects on surface salinity will then largely cancel out (only a remote origin will lead to overall net freshening); it's usually worth giving professional scientists (especially those who manage to get published in Nature) the benefit of the doubt
Toggle Commented May 26, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC's April review is out, featuring the Nature melt ponds paper: 'The size and number of melt ponds on sea ice are in part governed by the sea ice topography. First-year sea ice is smoother than multiyear ice, and the melt ponds tend to be shallower and more spread out over the first-year ice. While the melt pond fraction in May makes up about 1% of the total summer melt pond fraction, the shift to a predominantly first-year ice pack has helped to increase the number of melt ponds in spring and provides useful input into predictions for September sea ice extent.'
Toggle Commented May 10, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
on the one hand, all the years tend to converge in may, so low extent in april is not really a big deal. unless this indicates that melting is getting an early start (see the abstract in Boa05att's comment), of course
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
Jai, you are attacking a straw man, and you need a reality check - in fact it is you (handwaving attempts to dismiss the consensus view of an established scientific discipline) who is promoting views akin to climate denial "This mythology is intentionally marketed and produced because it benefits a few wealthy elites. That is the only reasoning I can come up with" naked conspiracy theory
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
David, no serious economist believes that 'Jevons' paradox will always happen that way', as is clear from the links that Hans has provided. Hans, I was agreeing with you, and taking issue with Jai.
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
the myth is that economists rely on faith based arguments - as the quote given by Hans makes clear, Jevons proposition was/is based on observation. are you saying the denial of climate change is a myth, that the invisible hand is a myth, or that reliance on the invisible hand is a myth? because the 'invisible hand effect' is certainly real
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2014 on Miscellanea at Arctic Sea Ice
From the NSIDC writeup: 'This winter the multiyear ice makes up 43% of the icepack compared to only 30% in 2013. While this is a large increase, and may portend a more extensive September ice cover this year compared to last year, the fraction of the Arctic Ocean consisting of multiyear ice remains less than that at the beginning of the 2007 melt season (46%) when a large amount of the multiyear ice melted. The percentage of the Arctic Ocean consisting of ice at least five years or older remains at only 7%, half of what it was in February 2007. Moreover, a large area of the multiyear ice has drifted to the southern Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea (north of Alaska and the Lena River delta), where warm conditions are likely to exist later in the year.'
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
"If the sun shines directly overhead at a particular moment, that’s peak insolation, and the rule-of-thumb value for that is 1000 W/m^2. So based on that, the Greenland ice sheet could melt away from sun alone, in not much longer than a century." ... you mean, if the sun shone directly overhead, 24-7, 12 months a year? n the reason it doesn't melt so fast is that the sun doesn't?
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
wouldn't have to be a global carbon tax at first. if eg the EU introduced one, it could apply the same tax as an tariff on embedded carbon in imported products. legal under WTO rules as long as the same tax rate is applied to all goods, and then the incentive is there for firms exporting to the EU to improve energy efficiency; then they put pressure on their governments to introduce similar tax at home because they'll have an advantage if it does
'it would also therefore only be a question of time, before weather turns less favorable, and we will see ice area and volume being reduced at high rates once again' ... then you haven't really joined the recovery team, have you? :)
'but the rate of loss will continue to accelerate until about 2065 when the Thermohaline Current drops to about 1/12th of its current rate.' ... do you have a citation for that?
Toggle Commented Oct 4, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
ring fencing carbon tax revenues to directly subsidise renewables would make sense, if that's what you mean.
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT, I'm not sure if your post is logically coherent and I've just misunderstood it, and I don't want to go off topic either, but the kind of transformation in energy supply you are talking about will cost horribly large amounts of money. nobody will be willing to invest in low carbon technology unless we put a substantial price on carbon. it just wont happen. and that means a tax, or some kind of cap and trade. in my opinion, of the two, a steadily escalating tax starting from a low base makes far more sense; you can disagree with that if you want to, but the point is that right now carbon fuels are the cheapest, if you discount future environmental costs. switching to clean energy will inevitably look like a price increase in the short term, whichever way you dress it up
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
am I the only one suspecting that the use of Inuit names, like Aipaloovik and Amaqjuag, will never catch on with a wider audience?
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
@ wanderer: I mean, it depends what kind of explanation you want. The graph you link to shows the sudden cold snap starting around day 120 that first took temps below the average; the easiest response is that that's just weather. Then temps rose rapidly, albeit staying slightly below average, and we can partly blame the PAC for the fact that temps have stayed cold the last few weeks. If you think this relatively long sequence of colder than usual weather is weird or unexpected, either handwave it away as a statistical fluke, add it to the growing list of unusual NH weather, or see it as a possible precursor of a new Arctic summer regime in which the battered icepack finally gets some respite. If what you really want is an explanation based on long-term climate oscillations, forcings, et al., well good luck. Ask the UK Met Office to call another conference, maybe :)
@Chris Biscan - don't be ridiculous, and there is no need to question people's intelligence. we know there is also a think called solar insolation. you do not have a unique understanding of what is going on. any prediction that is approximately in line with the decade-long downward trend is essentially as good as any other, because we don't know what the ultimate effects of the cyclone will turn out to be, or, as you admit yourself, what the weather will do for the rest of the summer. there is no point pretending otherwise
3.5 Mkm^2 approximate extrapolation of the downward trend, nudged upwards due to the slow start. @Chris Biscan: please just let people post their guesses. the last thing this thread needs is off-topic debate
... and apart from the reduced drag, 'blowing' bubbles in the eyes of the pursuing leopard seal won't hurt either :) every little helps
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
should have googled it first: [http://carinbondar.com/2011/06/biology-meet-physics-torpedo-like-emperor-penguins-can-show-us-a-thing-or-two-about-air-lubrication/] has more
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
Fufufunknknk, no idea, but that's no good reason not to speculate recklessly - I don't believe it's been photoshopped, could be air compressed and trapped between the feathers by water column pressure expanding and escaping as the bird rapidly surfaces?
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice