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Jim, Been very busy, but I found a few things, namely, thermistors are UV sensitive (coming article), so most top buoy thermistor readings need be very carefully scrutinized with time of day and weather conditions, best advice is to consider them accurate when very cloudy or very dark. Meantime I continued studying snow sublimation, which is turning out to be a very important player in Arctic surface temperatures. Is very madenning to try to get correct temperature readings within or near snow. Consider this sea ice season snow dominated, so my latest work is very timely.
Toggle Commented 2 hours ago on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim Could be so, however 2017 b ice starts with certainty from bottom thermistor 19, they call 172 cm ice, this leaves 2 thermistors above ice, of which thermistor 1 may be in air the other in snow 7 to 9 cm thick. I have learned by multiple observations that surface air temperature varies very little in 2 meters. A colder top of snow by 2 C may have a .2 C temperature inversion to the surface air height. 2017a top thermistor variations were impossible, and that is because the sun varied in altitude a lot more. The mere presence of rays causing bright snow affect thermistors. Even in a shade right next to lit snow, because light scatters and travels very well below its skin.
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
2017a (last transmission) had a larger diurnal solar input variance due to its latitude: 4/2/17 12:00 -26.55 1013.51 0.1 1.02 0 -1.02 -27.06 -27.13 -25.86 -19.79 -14.04 4/2/17 13:00 -26.87 1013.91 4/2/17 14:00 -26.71 1014.32 4/2/17 15:00 -26.55 1014.73 4/2/17 16:00 -25.34 1015.14 0.1 1 0 -1 -25.03 -25.04 -24.21 -19.6 -14.29 4/2/17 17:00 -22.89 1015.41 4/2/17 18:00 -20.71 1015.83 4/2/17 19:00 -20.8 1016.22 4/2/17 20:00 -20.04 1016.77 0.07 1.02 0 -1.02 -17.89 -16.63 -17.57 -16.25 -13.47 4/2/17 21:00 -17.97 1016.9 4/2/17 22:00 -17.53 1017.38 4/2/17 23:00 -16.62 1017.72 4/3/17 0:00 -17 1017.99 0.08 1.02 0 -1.02 -9.75 -6.48 -10.7 -13.66 -12.59 4/3/17 1:00 -17.67 1018.39 4/3/17 2:00 -17.88 1018.67 4/3/17 3:00 -17.78 1018.94 4/3/17 4:00 -19.95 1019.21 0.09 1.02 0 -1.02 -14.86 -13.91 -14.54 -14.36 -12.46 4/3/17 5:00 -22.36 1019.48 4/3/17 6:00 -23.36 1019.82 4/3/17 7:00 -23.88 1020.02 4/3/17 8:00 -25.08 1020.3 0.08 1.02 0 -1.02 -25.54 -25.61 -24.21 -18.02 -13.22 4/3/17 9:00 -24.9 1020.84 4/3/17 10:00 -25 1020.97 4/3/17 11:00 -25.64 1021.18 4/3/17 12:00 -25.88 1021.52 0.09 1.02 0 -1.02 -27 -26.87 -25.23 -18.77 -13.6 We can see here when the sun is lower between 08:00 and 12:00 the always more accurate surface reading was warmer than top of sea ice or snow thermistors, the extraordinary jump in temperature at 00z when sun is highest, top of snow sea ice warmer than surface air by 9 C is impossible. Also consider the specific heat capacity of sea ice , much bigger than air, In other words, sea ice Cp makes T variances much slower than air. To sum it up, the Mass Buoy surface temperature reading is a better approximation of top sea ice temperature than top 3 or 4 thermistor actual readings. As a guide to seasonal thermal evolutions, this is absolutely crucial to consider.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim I like it, but be weary of the top 5 thermistor readings, 4/11/17 8:00 -28.62 1024.78 0.09 1.72 0 -1.72 -27 -26.62 -26.24 -25.35 4/11/17 9:00 -27.21 1024.64 4/11/17 10:00 -26.3 1024.57 4/11/17 11:00 -25.9 1024.64 4/11/17 12:00 -25.57 1024.51 0.09 1.72 0 -1.72 -24.66 -24.34 -23.96 -23.26 4/11/17 13:00 -23.82 1024.37 4/11/17 14:00 -22.58 1024.1 4/11/17 15:00 -23.18 1023.96 4/11/17 16:00 -22.39 1023.83 0.08 1.72 0 -1.72 -21.74 -21.36 -21.18 -20.92 4/11/17 17:00 -21.39 1023.49 4/11/17 18:00 -21.27 1023.28 4/11/17 19:00 -21.36 1022.87 4/11/17 20:00 -20.68 1022.6 0.08 1.74 0 -1.74 -19.78 -19.59 -19.66 -19.91 4/11/17 21:00 -19.7 1022.46 4/11/17 22:00 -17.79 1022.46 4/11/17 23:00 -16.85 1022.33 4/12/17 0:00 -16.47 1022.26 0.07 1.7 0 -1.7 -16.12 -16.25 -16.37 -17.32 4/12/17 1:00 -16.24 1022.46 4/12/17 2:00 -16.61 1022.33 4/12/17 3:00 -16.43 1022.06 4/12/17 4:00 -16.2 1021.78 0.07 1.74 0 -1.74 -15.81 -15.87 -15.87 -16.82 4/12/17 5:00 -16.7 1021.65 4/12/17 6:00 -16.57 1021.24 4/12/17 7:00 -17.26 1020.97 4/12/17 8:00 -15.56 1020.69 0.09 1.72 0 -1.72 -15.17 -15.17 -15.3 -16.44 2017b has very little solar irradiance variance at the moment, but none of the top 3 or 4 are colder than the surface reading, this is highly unlikely.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hola Elisee Science needs be practiced to be valid, denialists are shooting blanks and hitting the lay already unconvinced. If 2012 minima record is not broken, it will be because the clouds did their usual job, or because cyclones came and stayed the entire summer. What fake skeptics miss, and they usually are willfully blind, is that we are at all time low records now, don't have to wait till mid September, and most days are at all time low records, the only thing high is the heat, all time warmest winter by a huge margin. The only other thing high are the fake propagandists who think they know science.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, I am sure the base management of this team heading towards the Pole reads Neven's blog. Since they are measuring things, I would suggest 2 , the 2 meter surface temperature and top of snow, 1 cm below the hard skin, a subdermal temp, in the shade from the sun. Usually in the shadow of a hummock or slightly ridged sea ice. Let's see if we can get some interesting data....
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim And the result for all this time an effort is seen on your second picture, lots of snow! -41 C with wind chill? The 1 or 2 degree trips are very good ideas as long as the Pole is open, spasibo!
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
......Warmest winter in Arctic history does not make for deeper refreezing starting earlier than usual.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Current Arctic Sea ice is breaking up like it is in July: There was in fact, no rapid consolidated refreeze, but continuous chaos, like sea ice pack was molecules in a just starting microwave, the ice moves in a higher degree of kinetic energy only stopping when the energy is exhausted (by deep cooling). This does not happen when there has been a prolonged refreeze caused by a incredible warming .
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
A "rapid refreeze" at 2016 minima, is a total numerically driven misconception giving a cognitive optical illusion , it did not happen. Since the weather which followed heavily favored an influx of continuous Cyclones which have created the record warmest Arctic Ocean winter in history, there was always a greater deal of open water than our measurement methods permit to realize. Suggesting that there was a rapid refreeze has no climate data (judged by months) , to back it. A sudden rapid freeze up of a huge area, say Siberia, gives very High pressure Anticyclones greatly amplified by the radiation escaping to space in darkness, which is what Anticyclone do in darkness. Same happens over the Arctic Ocean, a rapid freeze up of a huge area, like Hudson Bay suddenly and drastically changes the weather of its entire surroundings, even the circulation pattern of the Polar vortex. One may say whatever they want to say about anything, but I prefer correct interpretations. Observation perfection is very alluring, since it explains reality.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice Jim's Buoy graph above reflects very well the fragile state of Beaufort sea ice as seen from space, 2016 had a stronger high pressure system, same date early April 2017 looks eerily similar minus the high pressure power.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Dash line will do fine Jim It will be a very strategic addition.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
I would suggest a slight add on for your Mass Buoy graphs Jim, Would be very effective if the surface temperature should be represented by a dot which would help detect top thermistors solar irradiance effects. It is excessively difficult to make a proper temperature measurement of top of sea ice or snow when there is direct or indirect sunlight, even with reflected rays bounced downwards from clouds of thin fog affects thermistors. So it is only wise to study top thermistors when the sun is completely blocked ( by very opaque and wide cloud cover, or during the night time). A simple dot representing the surface reading would immediately give a reliability of readings. in essence "skin" temperature top of snow or ice should be colder or equal than surface, if not the data only represents a good study about photons warming thermistors.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Very interesting Jim By the way, my latest research suggests taking buoy data at the lowest sun elevation possible, 04:00 to 08:00 UTC, so that top thermistors represent a closer temperature without being too much affected by sun irradiance effects. This said 102 cm is very thin, despite 9 cm snow which is about more or less normal for a great accretion rate. Further East, snow thickness as much as 50 cm, has severely reduce sea ice thickness despite and in tandem with winter over all warmer temperatures, to about 130 cm near Barrow Strait shores. Without the greater snow cover , Beaufort sea ice 102 cm should largely be a result from a very warm winter.
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Any thicker snow over sea ice , as there appears to be over the central basin, Kara and Barents can give an illusion if not a false measurement of thicker sea ice. Although the melt would stall, because sea ice with a good snow cover has high albedo. However, snow sublimation is a 24 hour continuous process increasing water vapor which brings more fog, equally good to further a melt stall. Eventually vaporizing snow will leave a more bare sea ice surface , with much reduced albedo, the vaporized snow will flip its thermal effects from cooling to warming with a higher sun since water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, sudden rapid melt within those snow rich areas will surprise, as snow vanishes the revelation of a much thinner sea ice will make for bleak pictures. So I expect a slower or normal melt period for a while then a sudden dramatic high speed melt rate along with scary pictures of much fractured sea ice. Snow illusions aside, linking sublimation with inversions may interest a few:
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Subgeometer There is also the most important responses, individual actions, either buying an electric car or a bicycle ride to corner store instead of driving a Hummer. All these combined a million times have the largest over all influence in the long run. Hope exists despite the flat Earth people who will never give up Job's table on 4 pillars at the center of our candles are stars universe.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Also Jim No big news, but I can say with a fairly high level degree of confidence that all mass Buoy top 4 or 5 thermistors had sun radiation artifacts. Spring time top thermistors at night or with lower sun were always colder than surface air, however this does not change much during the day unless surface air is greater than 0 C. A work around would be to evaluate the much more precise surface air data, when there is a stall in diurnal warming, this is likely latent heat of snow or sea ice effect, when the partial Short Wave radiation absorption warms top of snow and ice column. Understanding this process has huge implications, one of which is melt ponds, if top of ice is always colder or same temperature as surface air, the only time when melt ponds can occur is when surface air is warmer than 0 C. Unlike what top thermistors buoy data might have suggested. There is another very top snow skin process at work as well.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Great job Jim I would agree they regret being wrong if they retract all their misleading articles, it would take more than a few words. This is bait and switch again, excite the spread of moronism then insinuate a serious institution practice. Keeping afloat a semblance of journalism does not make for a good newspaper. Are you getting any buoy thermistor data this season?
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, It does not take much effort to ridicule proper science, it takes only a pulpit, media with audience. The fake skeptics best points are taken from repeated falsehoods, thus ignorance spreads like a plague. But this is nothing new, we humans have been digging out from superstition mud traps ever since drawing nature scenes in caves for the first time. From then, we progressed in steps always followed by dark ages, but now we can paint with electrons, something anti-science gangs eagerly do without appreciating the great enlightenment making this possible, while not realizing their base need for spreading some regressive stupid agenda which will do way more damage than fleas carrying pestis, how small minded and powerful some persons may be.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
I have here: practical techniques as to where thinner thicker ice is, without AMSR2 or a dedicated for sea ice satellite, it is a complementary method adding another tool to your sea ice evaluation kit.
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Particular care must be given for snow analysis, there seems to be a lot of it throughout the Arctic. If so expect a bit later massive melt drops, also I wonder if analysis of sea ice thickness is correct given current apparent much thicker snow layer. There may be less sea ice than ESA projects. Depends on whether there is a remote sensing caveat with respect to snow cover, is it likely there is less sea ice thickness when the snow layer is thicker? "We show theoretically that relative ice thickness uncertainties between 20% and 80% can be expected for typical freeboard and snow properties." "Antarctic sea-ice thickness estimations are high and likely of the order of 50%. This is only a ballpark number. Uncertainties vary in space and time and depend on absolute total freeboard values, number of valid ICESat measurements and snow depth."
Toggle Commented Mar 25, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Good idea Jim But it wont work, because he only reads certain tweets of a select few grand illuminati's, Kane West, TMZ, Faux News, Hulk Hogan, Blimey Piers Morgan, Matt the bottom Dredger, not one scientist I am afraid. Daughter did not stand in the way of Pruitt nomination. Foget about it.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, I think we should work on a fake skeptic antidote page, come up with something so powerful we would make a big oil fat cat cry. So take it from here and "start to make it better" like the 1968 Beatles song sings: "Arctic sea ice is a similar to a graph, it is a display of the current state of heat of the planet, Earth warms, there is more water instead of sea ice, Earth cools, the North becomes more white with expanded snow covered ice. Within natural variations prior to industrial revolution, sea ice was at least 3 meters thick from Canada to Russia, Polar animals spread out and populated the entire Arctic with likewise species because of this. High Arctic human habitation ruins going back 5000 years were never found near sparse animal populations caused by permanent sea ice presence, a wide open Arctic Ocean has never existed in human experience. Bowhead whales from the Atlantic are genetically distinct from the Pacific, if there was wide open water in the Arctic Ocean basin at times there would be a vastly different archeological and biological temporal trail. Despite high latitudes lower sun in the sky, there was always enough solar energy to melt the entire ice pack many times over at any summer throughout geological history, but the very nature of sea ice is to reflect solar radiation up to 90 % of it because of the lower sun angle and especially with snow cover. Clouds added on an extra layer of sun ray reflectivity up to 80% especially when it mattered. The very nature of sea ice creates clouds in the spring summer by increasing the surface relative humidity of air well above 70%, sun rays even help create an insulation ice crystal laced fog. In total winter darkness thick sea ice cover clouds are naturally reduced by the drying out of the Arctic atmosphere lifting its protective heat cover, increasing heat radiation loss to space always creating thicker sea ice for months, ensuring a main massive amount of sea ice to exist at summer end by mid September ..... " A bit more points to add, rewrite it up like a poem and let the dumb ideas explode in the aether of nowhere.
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Philip, In this case, it would be a catastrophe if this principle pans out. :) I used a high precision thermistor, this time over Barrow Strait sea ice, the temperature of top of snow on sea ice reacted identically than with snow layer on land, except sea ice area had warmer surface surface temperatures. Of course if we extrapolate this for the entire Arctic Ocean, Arctic Islands and lands have a colder potential to spring up Anticyclones than over frozen top of ocean much warmed by thinner sea ice. NOAA physical sciences division model is not so bad, essentially confirms the first rule of sea ice horizon refraction, but has trouble with quite some distance from shore lines, as if there was a calculation gracefully adjusting the temperature differences, this is not so. Another of my main corpus of discoveries requiring a second deeper look by the big leagues researchers. If a model presents the temperature of top of sea ice warmer than surface air this may not be correct, unless there is water on top.
Toggle Commented Mar 22, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim I think Murphy's Law will apply and he will get a promotion to Faux News or some other dumbing down brain washing outlet. Is very appropriate to highlight and remind all of Mail on Sunday D.R. retractions at every new article he dishes out.
Toggle Commented Mar 22, 2017 on Lowest maximum on record (again) at Arctic Sea Ice