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Well Jim I think that Neven's sabbatic has it right, to be creative, to find other means to be convincing, one must meditate, get lost somewhere, and come back renewed. Regenerated a la Doctor Who.. Thanks for the graph by the way, is spot on. Note all surface temps warmer than top thermistor, Temperature top of sea ice (snow) always colder than surface air. A grand extremely simple equation, which I am currently writing about:
Toggle Commented 19 hours ago on PIOMAS December 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Warmer at the core of the high?" Is not faulty sensors Been studying it since inception, only possible explanation is thinner sea ice with a wetter but mostly cloudless upper air profile. In addition 2 Cold temperature North Pole Cells , NE Siberia and CAA have been advecting warm air, hence creating and maintaining this High , with warmer air respectively from the North Pacific and Atlantic. Hi Jim, I must remind the past incapacity of top buoy thermistors with respect to measuring proper temperatures has been confirmed by a new technique I use to remove sun radiation. I have found that a same thermistor measuring top snow in sun outside has a very large error compared with same snow sample taken inside (no sun radiation). However , since we can't ask polar bear to work for us, this artifact is reduced and eventually eliminated when sun elevation is below 5 degrees elevation. In other words, sun elevation matters when considering accuracy.
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS December 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
There is a great deal of resilience in localized deep frozen atmospheric areas, namely the CAA is back cold, despite a massive warm temperatures record shattering event. A study of how long this warming remains turns out to demonstrate that warm air advection events may seem big, but huge cold cells are deep rooted upwards and on the ground, and have persistence.
Toggle Commented Dec 6, 2017 on PIOMAS November 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Another Journey It is good to be wrong only we admit we are. It is a way of learning by observing whether or not an hypothesis is correct. As far as my latest projections are concerned, when forecasting there should be always a disclaimer in fine print: "wait for the projected time period ends before making a comment" :) As far as sea ice is concerned the warmer weather over it in tandem with a frequent persistent presence of a High (which should be a cold Anticyclone) should raise alarm bells. But as we were tagged by the oil funded loud mouths, we are definitely not alarmists :)
Toggle Commented Dec 3, 2017 on PIOMAS November 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
My point about "pressure system" comments stands. It is a very old way of expressing an obvious image or prognosis, without explaining the origins of the High's or Lows, they are just there, as a matter of fact, a bland assessment. Why is there a High over the Arctic Ocean now? Aside from just stating that there is one, it is because there are two very cold atmospheric cells dominated by land zones, mainly because they have more snow (or Glaciers) on the ground. But if we don't know where the snow is, we are stuck to express in bland terms, the ice moves out more because there is a High over the Arctic Ocean, the ice is kept in because there is a Low etc. What we fail to figure out, as the volume of sea ice goes towards a vanishing point, Global Circulation changes from very basic geophysical transformations. Namely, with warming oceans twinned with lesser sea ice, we see smaller cold cells, instead of a huge big one, which in turn gives the great jet stream undulations which cause anomalous weather events. Such as the mega blizzard just past. As John would describe: "With both the Greenland and Siberian highs seemingly fixed, the three lows (CAA, Barents Sea, and Bering Sea, and the high hovering over the Arctic sea ice (Semi-connected to the Siberian high) will remain." Sigh, terrible description. Greenland most always has a High (it is at very high altitude and the calculation to sea level pressure makes it often so). "Seemingly fixed" old way of doing things, why is the one over the Arctic Ocean fixed?
Toggle Commented Dec 3, 2017 on PIOMAS November 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Two weeks later the CAA is unusually warm with areas as much as 15C or more above average temperatures, while central/eastern Siberia is considerably colder than normal:" My oh my, as if I did not notice: John you have a continuous habit of jumping into conclusions without reasoning your assertions. The greatest cooling zone of the world "attracted" a strong Low to remain fascinatingly still causing warm air advection giving temperature records. This is weather John ! You assume wrong , at least you are consistent. Now that this situation has more or less vanished, the cooling over the CAA is returning strong and is just about to dominate again. Luckily the mega blizzard (a weather event) didn't appear to last the whole winter. I find your penchant to be annoying very amusing!!! And especially revealing. Besides there are other more serious things to worry about:
Toggle Commented Dec 3, 2017 on PIOMAS November 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
There is of course the real explanation of what is going on, always difficult to grasp by many, unless you live it, live from the Arctic, and it seems a "coup d'etat" by where ever the evolving snow falls most. Stating where the pressure cells are is so 1980's, a primitive pre satellite days attempt to explain things .... I suspect the complexity of sea ice needs be explained by the weather above, and the sea water below. But it is always not what it appears to be.
Toggle Commented Nov 17, 2017 on PIOMAS November 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice The drift indicates your assessment right Hans. What happens here is a false extent signal due to mixing, is common now a years. For 2017, we will get a very strong something, either cyclone storm or pervasive high pressure, sea ice remainders will settle on one side or another revealing the already open water a lot more. Is it possible to have melt ponds graph on Arctic Sea Ice graphs Neven? I find it interesting for revealing the thickest snow layers.
Toggle Commented Jun 28, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Very nice photos Jim If there was normal surface snow thickness the ice would appear vivid blue green, there is enormous amount of snow on sea ice in that area, it shows, therefore its all going to be gone sooner perhaps than ever. Great to see the action nearly live!
Toggle Commented Jun 27, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
In the vast area of Arctic Ocean If there is more sea ice snow than 2016, as Neven's melt pond graphs suggest, the collapse of sea ice will appear unnerving, sudden, unexplainable, but if we study a smaller area, such as Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and Barrow Strait: the larger Arctic Ocean Pack becomes easily predictable by the machinations of macro regions. Is a fact of physics you can learn on such wonderful science shows such as PBS NOVA (one of USA's greatest jewels, to be cut off if dumb dumb Trump gets his way). Water effects can be literally modelled on a very small scale. And so the Arctic Ocean mini models abound in nature, but having a lab would help further replicate. .
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice Jim , that Low is just about right indicating early stages of disintegration of the main pack ice, a tad earlier than I anticipated, I don't think it will persist as long as it will be in later August. Mean time I would trade some of my prediction skills for persuasion abilities, if I could, things are looking grim, many people don't know it, these are the voters of interest.
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Be careful about what you say about your mother in law Neven, :) Next year there will be more rumble into the denialosphere jungle, good!
Toggle Commented Jun 1, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
AbbottisGone I agree, but that is where the corruption fails, it makes huge business sense to carpet a small portion of Australian desert with solar panels, jobs galore, even for cigar chomping uber well overpaid CEOs. I think there is a huge segment of the working class population completely ignoramus about anthropogenic climate change, that is because they listen avidly to deniers and corrupt - or not - skeptics, rather than our best and brightest scientists. Ignoring them gave Trump and the rest of anti-Earth well paid in a comfortable life pollution maniacs. We can preach to the choir all we want, but we need to educate the "Trump base" wherever they are on the planet. Admitting that skeptics ideas are stupid needs the audience which believes so. We ignore them and their number fester back in zombie numbers. Trump is the poster boy that ignoring or not doing -false equivalency debates - ie one scientist vs a mad man loving excess CO2 - has failed in some parts of the democratic world, We've learned the need to confront the fake skeptics or might as well turn to gardening in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Jun 1, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, That is a good point , but I am in favor of shining Brian Cox brilliance as opposed to Australian senator, who in fact is in power, who does decide and influence wrongly on the course of Climate policy, but especially bring out that deniers are wrong, can't brag that they are wrong without showing it! If they have attention about their failings that is not necessarily good for their portfolio? It is time to reflect the sorry nature of sea ice and those intending in seeing it disappear further by their misconceptions.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
I would strongly suggest to all AGW skeptics to melt away in the obscurity of crowds, before they make a complete arse of themselves, There is a skeptic here: [snip] Citing Feynman empirical evidence trumping the models, well yes, sea ice validates these models quite well, despite the difficulty in predicting to the nearest Centigrade decimal. [If that climate risk denier is so silly, then why draw attention to his Youtube video; N.]
Toggle Commented May 31, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Hans Extra snow and the usual cloudiness severely slowed the warming of otherwise earlier all time heat presence. But its days are few, and melt ponds will start at the lulls of snow on ice, essentially between snow drifts. The extra snow replaced sea ice, and melts much faster, look for above 0 temperatures and also drift velocities shortly after. The water on sea ice acts more or less like a darker pavement, penetrates the bottom of thicker snow layout in drift waves, then for the first time since last year top of sea ice with water will be at times warmer than air. The thinner sea ice will then fracture easier and sea water will add significantly to the warming warming mix, reducing clouds and green ponds will show, It doesn't look good. Good prediction Jim Trick for us sea ice Jedi: Check top of buoy thermistor temperatures when winds exceed 15 knots. Heat loss dissipates the photon warming.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Stunning total collapse of once steady sea ice North of Greenland and consequences: Last years Maxima massive disrupting decoiling wave breaking up of densest sea ice area reverberates to this day.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Bill ". That is, it's possible for the ice to be warmer than the air above it with help from the sun." Never without movement, you can take an ice cube at 0 and place it outside at -20, it will be warmer than air for a very short time. In nature without flipping an iceberg, or a sliding glacier bit, the top of sea ice or snow is always colder or as warm as air. Sublimation cools the top layer, with clear day sun full blast above at 30 degrees elevation, the air temperature can almost be identical to top of sea ice or snow but never warmer. In summer that is easier to understand, ice is equal or colder than 0 C, so if it is 2 C outside, ice will be of course colder never equal when above the freezing point, this gives an interesting mirage of the ice horizon rising, In winter this becomes murkier, but all proper measurements makes top of sea ice colder or same temperature as surface air. The reasons are a subject o study especially driven from the First Rule of Sea Ice Horizon Refraction. Optical observations are the most precise indirect temperature non intrusive reading possible, even with full sun blasting top of sea ice, seen from afar the horizon never drops below Astronomical Horizon, however with sea water the horizon easily drops below Astro Horizon when air is colder surface sea temperatures, this implies that temperature of top of sea ice, with or without snow is always colder or equal.
Toggle Commented May 28, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice Northern Nares Strait was cloudless enough to glimpse total chaos even compared with the previous 5 years, a location currently having broken up sea ice where it never happened year round.
Toggle Commented May 21, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Susan Boston area is nice in the fall , but I will be in the High Arctic at that time. Thanks for the invite though.
Toggle Commented May 21, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil WE see now a new sea ice world, more fragile than ever, at the brink of chaos to be caused by a normal summer. Unprecedented is the norm.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi NeilT "The day we see totally ice free in summer is more than one decade away, " I would agree, but not for most of remaining sea ice, think 2007, with a lot more sea ice than now, yet a massive meltdown occurred where the thickest ice was. 2007 marked the beginning of the end, when anything can happen fast. I do agree that Greenland and Ellesmere stands in the way for a complete disappearance of sea ice, the extreme image of complete blue Arctic Ocean is a bit far away, but 80% gone at minima is not impossible this or any other year after 2017.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim I'll announce overall steep downward loss of sea ice trend when it hits, we not quite there yet, but break ups like the one you presented is very 'a propos", and will be the norm because the ice as per your example, is glued together by thin leads covered with lots of snow, It may seem solid, but it is in a very fragile state easily broken up. A bit higher temps and sea ice armageddon will start. By the way, there is no chance of 4 C warmer top of sea ice or snow than surface temperature as per Buoy data at times. I would suggest transparent alcohol thermometers on a webcam :), they exhibit the least affectation by sunlight, not they are impervious to sun rays, at least they don't go as wild as thermistor do with photons. I'll have something on this soon.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Those following winter's just past astounding Arctic Ocean all time warmer temperatures may have a hard time to explain this: Unless of course we also take into account abnormally thick snow on sea ice and Arctic lands. Not made readily verifiable, which is a blind spot, but snow cover right next the Arctic Ocean was and is still heavy with snow, inferring a bright white insulation delaying onset of a super melt. I explain further on my annual discourse: I am quite pleased unusually cold sun disk data reflected this cooling in the atmosphere, as early as mid March, to what we now see on the surface. At present being on course for a foggier cloudier early melting season start, alas to take a steep quick turn for the usual great melt when snow turns to water rather quickly when average surface temperatures approach the 0 mark. Snow has not the staying prowess of sea ice., but replaces it when very deep.
Toggle Commented May 6, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice My annual projection of weather events to come is out, and it has a lot of surprises, namely vast expansive thick snow layer related changes. Why vast? Because it was measured in the colder Arctic total atmosphere spanning hundreds at times thousands of kilometers by using the sun as a measuring template. However it turned cold very late in the winter season, perhaps making things worse for Arctic sea ice.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice