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There are consequences with respect to current domination of Cyclones with lesser thinner Arctic Ocean sea ice: Wait a bit, they will say in a few days, it will be very cold in North America. Perhaps Trump will tweet something stupid about it, but we forget so easy even the recent past, but music and brave fishermen have a story to tell, beyond politics transcending time, forever marked by lore.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice Poof it is gone! The first potential massive Trans Continental Arctic Ocean winter Anticyclone buildup was stopped in its tracks , was slowly weakened, is now gone. In 5 days, in part because of current sea ice conditions with of course a lot of open water. In the other part because it is unusually warm on the North American side of the Pole, the high pressure vanished with its at first almost seasonal colder temperatures. The locations with the strongest summer warming where the barriers stopping the Siberian assault.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT 1000 mile wide truck is a better analogy! A lot of people will have to move away....
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Viddaloo "Alarmism' of course means causing needless worry. I don't think you really mean to say there's no reason to be worried." I think the fake skeptics want to define us, since they don't understand that triatomic gas molecules are very effective in absorbing long wave radiation. Since the science eludes them, they resort to name calling, like any emotionally distraught person. Therefore calling the people with the correct scientific interpretation "alarmists" is a projection of their anger and blaming someone else for their problem. As far as they are concerned, CO2 lags behind temperature change as with the pre anthropogenic captured in ice sheet data suggests, again refracting the correct interpretation upside down. I view people who call others with names either immature or mature, depends on whether they gave up on science or facts and resort to basic human bullying. So yes, we are alarming others, but that is because science makes us do it. Like v=d/t , if you stand in front of truck going towards you at certain speed you may want to calculate the time you have to move away, I rather move away and trust Newton right. Alarmist term is used in a political way as well, since we are alarmed and the proverbial truck is moving at 1 mph, the fake skeptics laugh about the science and use the slowness of it all, we have not been hit yet, as a means to show we are alarmed for nothing. The correct way to deal with them is to say that the truck is moving at 1 mph and it will hurt if you don't move away from its path. Another "any cyclones on the prowl btw?" 3, one from the Pacific and 2 from the Atlantic, is like watching UFC, the cold Siberian High is getting licked pretty bad.
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT , Magma or internal heat is a great idea, too bad the drill expert oil companies don't see the ca$$h to be made there. 2017 looks grim from today's vantage point, I like predicting after the Maxima, usually we took a break at this time of the year, so I am looking forward for winter to take over big time, but it is coming very slowly, we see the the future unfold, coming winters Arctic Ocean will have much looser pack ice all winter long maintaining a feedback loop of continuous cyclonic intrusions and clouds amongst crazy warm anomalies. D, We honor those who fight for the planet by continuing the effort. Neven may take a break but we continue his inspiring work.
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
I think the extreme alarmism view, a justifiably scary no sea ice at all scenario, is overrated, it makes good pr against AGW, but it will take too long before it happens. Dr Serreze comment of 20 to 30 years will all but extinguish action, because we live in a wired internet world reacting to immediate news. Only scientists panic about the 20 to 30 years ahead of time, those who agree with these scientists find it hard to convince the rest of the world for action in order to avoid such an incident. There will be always some sea ice as long as Greenland has a lot of glacier ice cooling Arctic summers. However, I give it probabilities for the next 5 seasons, I don't like probabilities but we don't have access to sea ice animation models which involve trillions of calculations, more than my brain can do :), sea ice at minima probabilities: 1- More than 4 million km2 JAXA extent: 20% 2- 2 to 4 million km2 60%, 3- Near 0 to 2 million 20%. Near 0 because Greenland's ice will not vanish so quickly, it has huge katabatic influence along with partner in cooling crime Ellesmere Island. For the fake skeptics who live in a linear one dimension mathematic fantasies, there is such things in the real geophysical world as variations. Finally and most importantly, I see huge influence in weather patterns right now, due to current state of sea ice, this is the 24 hour a day story to cover, fit for the current internet world. Alas, on the science front lines, brought to you by science born technologies, are TV and internet weather presenters, completely focused on their little, as they say on NBC "neck of the woods". Rarely do they make any connections aside with past statistics, they usually do not educate the people they serve, they can or should do so more, make sea ice a daily presentation, make it important as it is. Yet the world melts as TV presenters sleep walk in front of their green screens.
Toggle Commented Nov 27, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Hans "Kind of like an engine has fuel, then it doesn't, rinse, repeat..." That is because there is a forever war between Winter-dark-cold and Summer- sunny-warm, endless saga of which winter is beginning to systematically weaken year by year. The story today is finally cold over the part of the Arctic Ocean nearest to Siberia about 6 weeks late: Now let's see if the sea ice thickness favors the dark side.
Toggle Commented Nov 27, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
AGW of course....
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
AGM problems are very real and mostly cumbersome far far away from the Arctic: One example of many, we are nowhere near serious enough in redressing the inevitable.
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
I've heard several reports on the radio about our sea ice conditions. Dr Jennifer Francis sounded right, Dr Serreze from snow and ice was spot on as well, except for wide open summer Arctic Ocean in 20 or 30 years, this wont excite a whole lot of people. Inuit hunters rather perfectly described the situation, one in North Baffin had trouble hunting because of very thin ice, the other in South Baffin enjoyed the warmer weather and thinner sea ice because the boating season has been much longer. But in our Arctic world microcosm, the situation of the planet was explained, some people, Northerners will enjoy warmer weather, but not all people will think likewise, to the contrary it is a bad thing. Mean time Dr Serreze has noted with most of us that there is finally a cooling over the Arctic Ocean. However will it last? Or do the models encapsulate the complete geography of our changing sea ice?
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Rob, All this oil may be needed for plastics and aircraft for eons of generations. Done properly, ethically, remediating the lands, requiring many well payed skilled workers. I was inspired by my old chemistry book about air pollution, it decried in the seventies: it is not wise to burn fuels to drive a car which can otherwise be powered by electricity. However, the petro industries are deeply paranoid, as we know, some have paid the contrarians to gum up IPCC progress amongst other devious deeds, they should not worry though, we will always need their product. But we are not wise enough to suggest something like: increase the premium on wood products for construction, not a tax, make it more expensive than oil petrochemical plastics. By enforcing selection cutting, a slower extraction process requiring more jobs than clear cutting. Make everything possible with plastics, replace wood products with plastics. As a result, CO2 would be more extracted from the atmosphere by renewed more expansive healthier forests and less of CO2 would be dumped directly to air by internal combustion engines. Some likewise collective plan including all industries and Governments, a guide of sorts, the next step above the IPCC. But again the paranoid isolationists, fearing one world Government action would be dead set against that. We need better mental health for the masses :)
Toggle Commented Nov 23, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Flux is right Neil, but that is a secret unbeknownst to the fake skeptics, not to worry, the secret is good here, they never read science facts without scoffing and reverence to the dumbest theories. These days of extreme warming in Earth's shadow long night are a presage never really seen before, Viddaloo is right that its uncharted, till now, but we saw it coming. That's what happens when the mind is not cluttered by science turned off willfully.
Toggle Commented Nov 22, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT Also can't dry parallel because solar flux, ie sun spots: lower than previous 11 year cycle, similar to the 1920's and 30's, when, according to banana brain contrarians, there was wide open water all over the Arctic, such whence vicious man eating Tigers roamed the Kalahari.
Toggle Commented Nov 22, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Viddaloo, -1 million daily extent prior to minima and now after, seems a latent -1 million km2 ingrained in the system even if not always measured as so. But the larger picture is obvious, the scattering of leads, not only confined to the just frozen Arctic Ocean areas, but throughout its entire surface is a "dry run" to a wide open Arctic Ocean in total darkness:
Toggle Commented Nov 22, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, Unfolding current sea ice events are not so surprising given that we observed the culminating reasons for years. We have a taste of the coming future will look like. The North Pole gets pummeled by a continuous stream of cyclones in darkness because winter isn't what it use to be: Of course Arctic sea ice is part and parcel of the winter machine. So it is ironic, a very Greek word "ironi", that you live at the beginning, to the West, right next to a massive cooling of Eurasia because world wide circulation has dramatically changed in a consistent way. Be witness to your studies firsthand without actually seeing sea ice disappear in person. It is an accomplishment and a privilege to understand larger complex climate systems, but being part of the change gives more insight. I am sure the fake skeptics will use the cooling part of the world to the max of their deceiving skills. Rest well, the sabbatical is well deserved. We will hang out.
Toggle Commented Nov 20, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Kudos to all who commented on sad state of sea ice Patricklocicman I would add The main reason why Arctic Ocean surface air is so warm is because of the myriads of leads. Changing the nature of the lower troposphere to be mainly adiabatic. Encouraging incoming warm cyclones which would have otherwise warmed the Urals. It is a feedback loop dominating weather throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere. It is naturally colder over the continents when cloud free, so if the cyclones from the Atlantic go to the Pole, someone in Russia is missing the warmth from clouds.
Toggle Commented Nov 19, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Mr Denial Extremists surely can't explain the warmest Arctic Ocean Mid November , likely ever in recorded history: From a September minima base of 22 % more sea ice, amazing how sea ice lost its mojo.
Toggle Commented Nov 17, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Viddaloo How easy it is in distorting the facts, did the fake skeptic explain current extreme Arctic Ocean warming, 0 C at the Pole? Volcanoes perhaps?
Toggle Commented Nov 17, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Robert S, I am beginning to believe that the dispersion event of September partially broke open a sea more or less never exposed to air in a very long time. It is not unthinkable that the Arctic Ocean as a whole has substantially warmed, and therefore is a far greater heat source than thought: Latest refraction observations in darkness have revealed a thinnest sea ice profile, a result from persistent clouds and the warmth unleashed from the North (of 74.5N).
Toggle Commented Nov 16, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I think, had 2016 at a full 728 km³ higher than the 2012 minimum volume." Is like a drink with more ice making water in glass and air above warmer, does not compute.
Toggle Commented Nov 15, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"to be torched next year I'm interested to see how that message changes." NeilT Nothing, Arctic silence, a few hundred people will speak, the Billions will be preoccupied elsewhere as usual. This is why the fight to clean up must be taken to the cities. I am convinced that this is how progress was achieved. I think that Arctic sea ice disappearing adds to the argument because sea ice is very photogenic, it adds weight to clean up more forcefully, but it alone disappearing fast is no popular Southern People concern but to shipping and oil industries. Weather changes in part by AGW are 99% of the times ignored by various media weather presenters, it is an nearly impossible task to explain because of this daily onslaught going unanswered. We have only the cities twinned with the obvious: sea level rising, warmer temperatures and daily blood red sunrise and sunsets, the last one in sight in mind almost everyday.
Toggle Commented Nov 14, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
NeilT, Despite relying heavily on nuclear power, I know about Paris smog, "grand scandale" , city of lights continuously dimmed, it wont be long before they go electric car big time. I also remember London more by its constant burnt diesel smell just as much as wondrous Baker street tube station , surely they'll go electric soon as well. London's smog was infamous once , they made huge progress, but they still haven't seen a good sunset every cloudless day. Victory better life wont be really gained until Greenwhich is set free to observe the universe through consistently low particulates air. We know what the pollution maniacs want, no regulations Texas style, unfettered stupidity compensated by greed. But most individuals want something better, it takes many good jobs to go renewable green, a lot more engineers than burning coal to blacken the sky "Blade Runner" at noon like. If one country wants to remain in the 19th Century industrial revolution "atmosphere" it needs not look far, China is struggling with coal pollution big time. Yet China is attacking the problem perhaps because they care more about their future, having understood that money can buy all the Canadian Air bottles they want, in the end its cheaper to share our air without wrecking it and still make economic progress. So if this country, whoever wants environmental misery as a sign of economic progress , darken your skies, make it hard to breathe, send some of your kids to lung hospitals as a necessary evil. We don't want anything to do with your economic plans. Perhaps this country will have the good sense to join the 21st Century. When all countries, without exceptions, once agreed to care for our planet.
Toggle Commented Nov 13, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Winter is indeed having a fight on its hands, not unusual for November 12, but its struggling from 2 fronts, not only its common foe from the South, but from the North:
Toggle Commented Nov 12, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil T What is the point in being negative? Unless it somehow inspires progressive action... First we must confront the lie, pollution is a bad thing, those living in big cities with lots of cars, the majority of people on Earth, are all smoking cigarettes, air pollution does this. The fine particulates breathed in over a long time give magnetites in brain tissue eventually causing dementia or other related diseases. The lie is clearly visible at sunset or sunrise, the sun appears off color by air pollution. If by chance you have air from the far North, you'd see through the lie, a brilliant sunset so bright you cant watch it. The effects of sea ice glints the sun super white because Arctic air is dried up. According to fact checker stat keepers, Trump lied 70 to 80% of the time during his campaign. I might explain this because may be lies are a way to win elections or early signs of dementia, sometimes he denied saying things he said on tape a few days before, worse than Reagan. But living with lies is transformative, living in a world that is not natural likewise, the two are not dissimilar. So what if a small percentage of the world population wants asthma giving smog as a sign of industrial success? What we have to do is just desire a better world, and not be sidetracked by anything less, we can achieve the better world together by envying those already there, compare a cleaned up city with Beijing or Shanghai on a super smoggy day. Compare L.A. 20 years ago to today. What about Paris Vs Berlin? Who cares about the polluting loving maniacs, lets get better and make Earth Great Again!
Toggle Commented Nov 11, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
It is very possible to reduce CO2 levels without the US gov slashing emission regulations and accords, 75% emissions from the rest of the world and individual action from the majority of US voters may pick up the temporary Trump years shortfall. Protest my Southern cousins by going hyper green. Nevertheless, It is up to us, billions of us, why wait for one ignoramus to understand Earth's dire straits? We all know that the US is a democracy, this means change is continuous, bad policies come and go, besides which are the richest countries in the world? The ones with a great renewable energy portfolios of course. Consider this: we in the Arctic and Antarctica have the cleanest air in the world, less than 200 particulates per cc, internal combustion engines filled big city may have well in excess of 10,000 multiple times, next to a coal fueled power plants huger numbers still. Do you want your children and all their descendants to breathe the cleanest air possible forever? With the sunsets bright white instead of blood red in smog? Yes the sunsets are white in pristine air! Shocking isn't it?
Toggle Commented Nov 11, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice