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wow, a follow up of my preceding would be North Pacific and Atlantic temperatures, despite a weak or undeclared El-Nino. The minima should be quite delayed because sst's are really very warm. Yes it means also much warmer weather everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Of which our best friend, the under studied sea ice is the only thing cooling things down along with winter. Perhaps even El-Nino has trouble starting because the South Pacific is remarkably cooler, and you know who is the cause of cooling over there.
Toggle Commented 2 hours ago on ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim Hunt the ice prophet: "The relevance is, of course, that what's very good for the surf at Point Barrow is very bad for health of the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea Marginal Ice Zone" But its not only the waves Jim, but rather sea and ice higher temperatures combined with a Low pressure system in the mix.
Sam, is the winds, and the channels will concentrate the ice on one side or another, it does not mean that its closed to traffic, which by the way, if these ship mates read me or followed Neven's ASIB would have left later!! Sailors are a hardy bunch following their instincts, but rarely if ever seeking advice about sea ice conditions, they just go into the fog. "Inadiman" Norwegian style. The only one seeking advice was none sailor Ousland who circumnavigated the Pole for a rousing reception back at his home. Neven, Ice is never boring unless the scotch is all gone. :) So far a very interesting year, and the melt pond excuse is very tenuous, now that its a bit colder you'd think CT would stall in ice area loss. I gave up on trying to understand CT results , although very interesting, there is something fishy about Extent loosing less than Area as per right now. Extent overlaps the area, already more compact than last year. The mathematics does not make any sense, unless the melt ponds have melted in colder surface air. I scratch my head, it is still nevertheless intriguing….. but weird….. More open water invites cyclones, already making their return felt, Now is the time when they may disperse ice in wide open water.
Steve , Jaxa 2013 :5,487,870 km^2, 2014 5,489,997 km^2, tomorrow may signal 2014 lesser than 2013, soon to be lower than 2008, likely to compete with 2011. To be fair with 2013, wildly scattered largely with loose pack ice, but CT 2013 had more Area at this time, which does not make much sense. And yes Parry Sound is almost open, albeit small, by a mere 10 miles wide or more, but soon to to be much wider . So much for the clogged NW passage. The Laptev bite increases the ice shore line perimeter significantly, and increases melting. 2014 thaw is beginning to look more important than a mere 2 weeks ago.
John, "Everybody is aware that the models used to estimate sea ice area and extent have limitations. They provide estimates." Ya of course, but missing wide open water 40 by 250 km makes me wonder if these estimates are a bit off at times. The data map which replicates the sat pictures better should give better numeric results. Not sure if year to year comparison applies well all the time, for instance broken ice next to open water is not the same as compacted solid ice next to open water. How did CT missed open water so much? Again it must be resolution problem, not all melt ponds, their grids must be huge in excess of 20 nautical miles. While JAXA may be 16 km. The difference in resolution matters when making a calculation to Extent -Area difference. In other words our analytical skills are compromised if we do this calculation.
Oops CT missed 5000 not 50,000 km^2 in the area presented, but since it has missed so much in one sector, it means that they failed measuring a lot of sea ice area accurately, likely by resolution constraints, by a much greater number than 50,000 for the whole data area. Jim, 2014b was floating in its drill hole since July 31 according to official buoy site. That is hard to fathom, is likely floating since its moving very fast. But they are the experts. If so, we have a good profile of water column temperatures. Very fascinating.
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
By using Google Earth CT missed 50,000 Km^2 of open water in one archipelago small area as per That is while using their section 40% or so coverage of apparently ice clogged McClintock channel. So wider overall mystery is busted, 20 nautical miles resolution is no match for JAXA depicting the open water accurately.
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice Well John, as you can see, Cryosphere Today has likely grids in Excess of 20 nautical miles, making their maps report bad image of reality. In effect CT is good for very thigh pack ice but not for scattered pack ice, like 2014. Making year to year comparisons more tricky. The proof is in the NW passage. Thanks for the melt pond paper, still reading it, the problem with some papers is that they use science speak as much as any lawyer would write an effusive legal opinion stretching our minds beyond the limit of our understanding of it.
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, for melt ponds to be counted, you need a higher resolution captures. Furthermore, in most places with buoys, the top of ice water melts in the morning and freezes at night. Which should be quite normal for this time of the year at high latitudes. For ponds to be counted it would mean the CT uses early morning satellite data regularly.
Toggle Commented Aug 18, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Phil, I agree, it seems quite weird and 2014 is very close to be lower than 2013 in extent. Logically 2014 should do likewise. Unless there is a lot of small broken ice packs configured in a way making extent smaller but area greater. Or there is a resolution disparity between the way extent and area is measured. Thanks Jim, 2014F seems strategically placed to monitor sea ice before it breaks up. Or may be there is wider open water near 2013F seen by fog bank at horizon: the sun is to the south south East, its possible there is a fear of further breakup or its plain renewal over a solid pan of ice in order to continue monitoring in the immediate region.
Toggle Commented Aug 18, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Henry1, appearances deceive at face value, is what you have under and in the ice that matters. Some of the floes are multi-year, but most have peaking ice temperatures, which means they break with the winds, especially Western winds, which are not as common as they use to be. We will see, if winds dominate from the East then Parry will be jammed wind ice packs. If Westerlies prevail, goodbye Parry ice! Jim Hunt, most fascinating is buoy 2013d, as thick as it can get 3.4 meters, loosing more than 30 cm under ice in about a week, despite constant warmer air and sea water for months it didn't start to melt until recently. Goes to show there is a melting season, and it is especially now. The overall temperature of sea ice is crucial in quick accelerated melts no matter how thick it the pack may be. to really appreciate how fast ice is disappearing: But a really important in the near future sea ice indicator would be the overall temperature of ice column.
Toggle Commented Aug 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Naa Henry1, Although I have foreseen NW opening later than usual, (at least more than 3 weeks later than last year, in March 2014), it is nowhere like a decade ago, may look like a decade ago, but not so. The start of freezing season for the passage is well after minima date, at least in a month and a half from now. Especially considering the North Pacific warm, very warmed by a small El-Nino at present. The passage should open later than previous recent years, but this will be how many years in a row with both passages open? Can any outlandish statement about a recovery be supported by facts? JAXA numbers show 2014 gradually approaching, likely to be smaller than 2013 soon. This is because some areas already with apparent great melts will have more than 86% of open water instead of 80%. CT numbers should also drop for the same reason. There is a distinct difference between last year and 2013, the Gyre has returned, somewhat weak, but there never the less. The pause in normal ice movement is a dynamic factor affecting sea ice extent numbers. We have recently seen, a rekindle over what a normal gyre can do.
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Werther, this year is tough to assess like any other year. 2013 was marked by omnipresent clouds, with hardly any compaction. Yet sea ice melted a great seal nevertheless. This year was made by last year's lack of insolation, a cooler sea water made the ice set earlier. This made the present compaction possible, reversing the extreme cloudy trend. So you are right that ice is now thinner and ripe for melting. Hi John, that is a good question, I fear that the more inclined to believe "recovery" contrarians will twist this years looks for every extra ice bit they find. The melting started late on the North American side as expected, what fools was little cooler surface temperatures which existed due to this greater ice extent. But the return of the Gyre made the Atlantic side of ice pack more spread towards it, where you can observe the greatest gains with respect to last year. Finally a great deal of ice scattered with lots of open water could make this years melt look lesser than 2013 with current 15% threshold. Only correct observations can point this out. But contrarians don't care about complexities, they rather go to the simplicity jugular. However I demonstrate in my second part how fast current melt appears to be going: In a mere 5 days the progression of sea water is much larger than records appear to indicate. So lets sea how much destruction a late dipole gives, it may surprise most of us.
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
I suspect sea water has reached the surface area of Buoy 2013F: The darkness of water is surely an indicator. With official measurement of 150 cm of ice, this is certainly what we sea by satellite pictures of most areas at present time.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice Here I give example as to why care must be given when reading extent and area numbers. Melt rates are not measured accurately, and the only way around this is to look at the ice with excellent sat photos readily available on the net. This is why 2014 numbers look a bit weird, when so, one must look for the reason behind the strangeness and not make conclusions until the time is right.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, use the link and click on August 5 2014 . No it is an observation, with Jim's latest link just above, it is very difficult to fathom how ice area increases when in fact its shrinking , but alas CT today 121,000 km^2 of less area makes sense, but the day before there was an increase in area. And Jaxa had a 90,000 km^2 in extent drop at same time, at current strange rate may be Jaxa for 2014 will be less than 2013 soon. At any rate, judging melting is poorly done by CT and JAXA, but flawed methods are inter-comparable with time.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"Eyeballing, it looks to me there's not much left of what I've been calling 'mesh-pattern' ice Werther and NeilT, that is because its been very very cloudy near the Pole. However, once in a while there is a sliver window, enough for a brief look:,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2013-08-28&map=-366016,-152256,342080,186176 August 5 Shows "Mesh" or broken ice all the way to the Pole. Hi John, there has been very rapid degradation of sea ice North Of Beaufort, one patch is about 120,000 km^2, both numbers of area and extent can't compute the true rate of melting. Melting has to be virtually all but done before it gets counted. There has also been some full moon tidal action contrarian to the High Pressure flow. But ECMWF later than a week small low, might break up what is already barely uniform. So I think is best to wait till the sun is well below 20 degrees above the horizon at 75 North before grasping the full nature of this years melt.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm not sure that a post-mortem analysis of this year's sea ice minima is advisable at this time 40 days or so before it may happen. There is some serious action going about: which may not show because of the way records are kept. A closer look is advisable. As I have foreseen in April the return of High Pressure over the Arctic Basin has returned because sea ice there was much frozen in particular over the Archipelago region (where observations were made) from the lack of solar heat deflected by clouds during the Arctic summer of 2013, as foreseen the Eastern Route is open before the NW passage as well. And the melting appears later than recent years because the South Sub North American Arctic had a much colder than usual winter, affecting the North! For these reasons melting and physical processes of sea ice mechanics would not be the same as previous years.
Toggle Commented Aug 7, 2014 on PIOMAS August 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Epsen, its not unreasonable to witness ice simply melting fast in one day, its a matter of sea ice temperature, sea ice can actually look solid, white, not dark, and just crumbles to pieces from something of weight above it. Likewise under the ice may appear solid, but can be in such a fragile state a mere touch make the bottom layer vanish instantly . Generalizations such like "this doesn't happen" is due to lack of experience or study from the commenter. As far as spiritual implications in a computation of sorts please comment about that at WUWT, I am sure they welcome such acts of faith.
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
PrévisionsMeteo Belgique, the preceding point when this will happen must the North Pole Ice free, so one must wait for this step. The ridging Ice pack, where the thickest ice remains, must be surrounded by water for this to happen as well. Ice in small packs melt far more faster than large ones, as this proof above shows. There has to be lots of warmer sea water about enveloping the moving ice, so no chance for the pack to create a colder sea water from the shade it makes.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, it will be good to capture buoy data when the ice obliterates or vanishes. This will serve as an example , especially day before and after look, as epiphyte's work in Neven's latest example. On 2014b, the sea water and ice temperatures are totally undistinguishable, meaning any rise of sea water temperature will obliterate the last standing ice. Given that it will be sunny for a while, this ice will likely disintegrate during evening. If cloudier when the sun elevation may be important, the process is almost the same but slower.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, the remainder sea ice over the Basin can be subtly deceiving, it is quite interesting to read buoy ice profile temperatures which reveal the extremely fragile existence of first year ice at the same temperature of the sea, particularly over North Beaufort area. Once surrounded by open water the sea warms and therefore the ice can vanish extremely quickly. So sudden to astound as we can witness now. And therefore there should be many more days of significant vanishings. As I wrote before, each year has its own thing going, and ice shores surrounded by 20,000 km of much warmer sea water may trigger some significant surprises. It is a matter of judgement or lack thereof to say that this sea ice has been recovering, if it was it would be like 3 meters thick rarer sea ice similar to 2014D, amazingly resilient and readily colder than the air above and water below by several degrees centigrade. To write that first year ice albeit apparent from space for now, but having the same temperature of the sea "has recovered" because the extent and area (again for now) is wider, illustrates the commenters lacking crucial skills, I salute you for your efforts in pointing this out especially for those dedicated to learn.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks John, there is something amiss when extent goes down and area rises. It could very well be that melt ponds are freezing. That would be a suitable explanation, but it happened at warmer surface temperatures, note buoy 2013f, there is a picture showing snow floating on water, I doubt they measure things to the meter square, but snowfall on water does this to CT sensors, I proved it a couple of years ago. If extent drops it means the ice has melted or compacted but certainly not scattered. For area to increase simply means more ice. It can't be because its more compacted, there is a small chance that scattering may increase its value, but I find it a difficult concept, it would mean that more than 15% ice moved into wide open water, however the catch is that extent would increase when area does so due to winds or currents. Back to 2013f at 16z today the surface (2 meter ASL) temperature is -.5 C while the very first thermistor measures above 0 C so it isn't ice on ponds. At least for known measurements.
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
If you consider there is about 20,000 km of sea ice coastline next to open water at this moment, if 1 km of it thaws (a reasonable melt). There should be about 20,000 km2 of ice melt a day, of course this reasonable estimate is contrary to a 36,000 km2 increase in area by CT between July 27-28. So the numbers given must be taken with a wide grain of salt. They seem to be an approximation but I think better surveying can be achieved.
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
John, with the North of Equator Pacific sst's becoming one very warm zone, the clouds are bound to take over strongly soon, this means extra heat by advection and cloud cover. The cooling seen now is from clear skies, quite normal, but the influence of heat to clear skies is waning in its place there will be a lot of cloudy days. I have noted for weeks a great disparity between Jaxa and Cryosphere Today data. Often when Jaxa extent drops CT Area goes up! Using July 27-28 as an example I think that CT has a problem with clouds and the Europeans not so much. So given the near certitude of expansive cloudiness to come hold on to your hats for a little rocky roller coaster ride. But of course cloudy warmer weather implies a later onset of minima day.
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice