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wayne
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Recent Buoy data more profoundly analyzed revealed in large part what happened during summer 2013 as presented by Jim Hunt thanks to NASA: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2013-08-28&map=-366016,-152256,342080,186176 A very persistent cloud covered summer did not stop the melting of sea ice at all (as on August 28, 2 months from now). It simply continued less intensely. Here is what likely happened: the lack of sunshine for most of the sea ice pack slowed top of ice melting, but the weather had above 0 C weather nevertheless. This meant bottom of sea ice melting continued because of thermal transference from air to warmed ice to sea, the warming sea below the ice should have been largely responsible for a great deal of melting. However, the overall lack of warming of sea surface due to lack of direct insolation caused an earlier refreeze prompting the now known sea ice extent anomaly trend break with respect to 2012 all time minima. Flash bak to today, insolation has been very strong at peak high sun elevations on the North American side of the Pole, this is not 2013. But consider 2013 weather returning suddenly, the added heat to the sea ice has been huge, even if cloudy like in 2013 from now on, the ice extent will be lower. The heat is in the system can't be lost. However weather dynamics will continue like its 2014, the Canadian Archipelago standing out as a cooler place will eventually fade, but not yet . The North American side Anticyclonic driven solar bath will continue for sometimes to come, while the Russian side of Pole will have the opposite. A unique 2014 style dipole persists. The heat gained to sea will make this years melt great! Despite any sudden change in less insolation to come.
Toggle Commented Jul 3, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, You can be taken to task now :) . Your forecast is a model based stance which does not include dynamical meteorology. As was with 2013 , this may work most times but not always. As we know, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has more snow now than usual . Which is more part of a larger well known presence of High pressure systems being more persistent since the Spring. These Highs gave more insolation elsewhere likely contributing to current lows in extent at IARC-JAXA, #3 lowest at this time. The idea that one may take one indicator and make a projection out of it lacks the holistic approach which has likely a far better chance of success. I rather use what indicators may provide and integrate it with larger influences. So I perfectly new that sea ice in the High Arctic Archipelago would last strongest since March because of more than one indictor combining synergistically. A cold zone in the CAA in spring invites the presence of Highs as long as thicker ice and larger snow extent, it didn't mean what it implied, once knowing the greater impact of more sunshine.
Before you vote look at the candidates and see if they have any compelling differences: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
For those following sea ice story for years, there is nothing more fascinating than seeing a melting close-up. A great deal of solar heat absorbed by the sea ice goes further down towards the sea. From that, the colder sea, what maintains the ice from total collapse, equally warms, it seems real melting is from the top first then from the bottom, a bit of a surprise. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca Sunnier conditions do not necessarily mean instant warming of surface air, rather a great warming of ice and sea. Warmer Surface temperatures from land by advection, accelerate the process.
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Wait till Kara Sea goes Neven … But the larger picture stems from the micro-action in sea ice: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca Chaos happens when the general term heat sink to sea ice shifts to the ocean.
Toggle Commented Jun 30, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Well done Neven. It is so true, there is no "schedule" especially in the Arctic. My recent focus has been with sea ice micro-dynamics. We know more about the greenish stuff than ever, but the micro-dynamics are newish to me. I believe that the "warming" up as reported above is due in large part to sea ice columns coolest layers vanishing. So there is much less of an atmospheric heat sink now, and virtually very little cohesion in holding the ice together. A cyclone will reveal how bad sea ice strength really is. I have already captured wide variances in near shore ice movements, it won't take much to make a mess of things, similar to cyclone of August 2012, it wasn't the cyclone per say which appeared to vanish ice, it was the state of the ice prior to its arrival.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
LRC, sunny and mainly clear is always devastating at this time of summer. The only thing missing is strong compaction, which makes things even worse. But the thinner ice of North Pole to Russia sector is the most vulnerable being thinnest. What I look for is old leads with even thinner ice, and strong buoy displacements. There should be a moderate Cyclone hitting Beaufort sea area soon, lets see what kind of structural damage the ice in that area went through lately…
Each year has its own cliff Chris 2014 for instance has a split surface sea ice climate given structure. One sector, Pole to Russia which has had less cooling due to cloudy winter spring(unlike 2013). The other sector Pole to North America had more cooling due to Continental winter so frosty American deniers did many cart wheels on their way to their idling driveway Hummers. The two have incompatible climate conditions, one side now cloudy, Pole to Russia, the other sunny Pole to NA. The heat sink effect by sun from clear air takes time to weaken sea ice, from what I learned recently from buoys, sea ice column temperatures reaches a point where ice becomes tragically weak, temperatures in the columns on most buoys are now all close to disintegration . While the other side of Pole, thinner from cloudy winter sea ice is protected by a vanishing cloud shield, this thinner ice still melts though. The net effect is a later cliff in sea ice area anomaly. I captured some very interesting cloudy vs sunny effect on sea ice http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/06/anatomy-of-doomed-sea-ice.html . There is no doubt that sun melts more ice at this time of the year.
Now we'll see where rubber hits the pavement. I expected sea ice next to CA Archipelago to be tough to melt. Therefore the "cliff" effect would be happening more like 2007. By all present indications, it will be as estimated, a massive melt is in progress. The only thing I didn't foresee is Kara sea being slow to melt, but it is much similar to 2007. The buoy data offers certain glimpses of the physics of the melting process. A cloudy day appears to transfer a whole lot less heat downwards the ice column. While the melting continues in the bottom. Also not really a surprise, a cloudy day has a temperature diurnal effect on the surface. This was observed optically hundreds of times. It is quite possible that these days of high sun (where cloudless), a lot of thermal energy is dedicated to warming sea ice columns, rather than the air, "in summer sea ice is a heat sink" as written by O-buoy site. So the appearance of a moderate melt at present is very misleading. One must not forget the players from the South, the 2 biggest ones: the super hot North Pacific temperature anomaly twinned with burgeoning El-Nino (sometimes stalling), create more cloud seeds but also extra upper air heat, making the creation of clouds less favourable.
Chris, being known for having made good predictions consistently is part of this science. Somehow those who always flunk are propped up just as much. It reads as a very competent projection, right or wrong the attempt is based on science, not by words based on a made up fake reputation.
Fairly good idea Blaine, but there seems to be some diurnal thermal variance coherence, which shouldn't happen by top of ice water flowing downwards on the thermistor string, the temperatures should be more in line with surface water. Can't be confirmed without a person there, hopefully by helicopter or back up kayak.
Took a stab at measuring how much ice is left with Buoy 2014b. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca The key is variation in temperature, as the horizon rises or drops with temperature differences between ice and air.
Yes Jim, The freezing point of sea ice at 4-5 g/Kg is about -.1 to -.2 C that would be for top of ice column. I don't have salinity in first year sea ice column graph, but if we make it linear, sea ice melts at -1.8 c at bottom, and lets say it increases by .1 C/10 cm, at 10 cm from bottom it should be -1.7 C which is .3 C below where some readings are right now: http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/irid_data/2014B_clean.csv where top of ice should have melted by about 40 cm, bottom … difficult to interpret.
Well projected Chris, but it should be you that is more known for sea ice predictions at least more than Bastardi! And so many of my co-writers here, you are light years ahead of deniers, may pleasant light shine on you to educate an eager audience. buoy 2014b is just about to float I would say. Incredible amount of water on top and no real visible ice cold layer stratum left. Near by beaufort sea opened amazingly rapidly http://eh2r.blogspot.ca. Buoy data is very interesting, 2014b has more water on top less ice in bottom, not keeping up with sensor estimates in my opinion, I'd say it has 90 CM of ice from 160 in no time at all , it took a few days only.
Neven, I don't think citing Mr Wrong Bastardi , who believes CO2 is a trace gas of no significance, does any good at all but propagating bad science. It is rather more useful to concentrate on success, for those who get it right often cited less, by coincidence, are proponents of the scientific method. I rather see this like we have been hijacked by contrarians made popular like Don Quixote. But usually in the real world, like at current World Cup, the team that looses out in disgrace does not get more attention then the finalists, most will remember the winner rather the teams who exited the contest earlier. So how come we keep on harping on the loosing contrarian team with attention deserved to winners? , Again and again? Would it be rather more useful to explore the reasons why one person or group got it right? As far as 2013 was concerned, the lessons learned was that no compaction of sea ice causes a feedback loop favouring cyclonic penetrations or persistence over the Arctic ocean, these cyclones fuelled by thinner ice or more open water (rather than less) brought a sun shield (clouds) and winds cancelling the Arctic Basin Gyre. Now this lesson,completely gets lost in the lore of contrarians, who despite dimly trying, don't have a clue about the meaning of a single season. Rather they call it "cooling", because of some misinterpreted reason they take from who knows where. The predictions for biggest melt then were wrong, because most, including myself who despite seeing the cyclonic season coming in April, did not appreciate the importance of counterclockwise winds enough. Instead of saying this guy or that model got it right, it is rather much more useful in explaining how , if wrong likewise. But why bother with a guy not accepting very basic scientific precepts? Unless he or she gets it always right, which sadly for contrarians, almost never happens, when it does, on the rare occasion they are heroes after missing the goal 1000 times, they score a fluke, so what?
Those predicting a melting season similar to 2013 or those who predicted the fiction of pending new ice age, may see their prediction leaving the realm of reality as fast as sea ice is retreating off North Alaska shores at break neck speeds ... now. A little GIF surprises and is telling. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca
At WUWT being wrong is a vocation!
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2014 on PIOMAS June 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I agree @ Kate, on top of that eliminate Kara sea ice area, which will be gone in a little while, sea ice area will be on par with 2012. North of Alaska action reveals imminent collapses: buoy 2013f, using buoy temperatures, has only about 120 cm of 167 effective ice, the rest at bottom is soft, corrupt, at same temperature as sea water. The degree of purity of water in this ice is important. Top has plenty of water not seen well with webcam: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy10/camera, this may be precursor to melt ponds, or melt ponds are in effect already there without being capable of visual perception. This means visual melt ponds are in some cases observed earlier because of lack of snow depth, and actual existence of ponds go undetected under thicker snow. I do remember having a snow mile swallowed by such under top of snow ponds many years ago. buoy 2014b, has 50 cm of barely solid ice out of 160 cm. Lots of pond water there as well. THis one is highly likely going to float on sea water soon. buoy 2014c, 130 out of 190 cm of more solid ice, with certainly stealth melt pond water on top. All 3 buoys are relatively close to each other. As we can see on satellite close ups, sea ice surface appears to vary, and so does its ice physical properties.
Neven, check out CT GFS animations. It will be toast for the coasts! Sea ice temperature columns over Beaufort sea are the in thing for me. Pre-collapse conditions suggest the coldest near middle layer must be at lesser temperatures than air and sea, for ice to survive. The sun is simply forcing heat towards centre, when Temperature of coldest ice layer = sea , may be precursor to something interesting.
Looking at EOSDIS and 2014b buoy data reveals thick ice about to vanish near Alaska: 06/20/2014 12:00"," 74.6570"," -160.1087","GPS"," surface air: -1.67"," SLP 1025.91"," snow thickness: 0.05 perhaps 50 cm"," ice thickness: 158 cm top snow temperature -0.44". 10 cm level temperature: -0.56"," 20 cm: -0.58"," 30 cm: -0.88"," 40 cm: -0.56"," 50 cm: -0.02 (water?)"," 60 cm: -0.00"," 70 cm: -0.17"," 80 cm: -0.44"," 90 cm -0.69"," 100 cm: -1.06"," 100 cm: -1.23"," 110 cm: -1.38"," 120 cm: -1.46"," 130 cm: -1.44"," 140 cm -1.50"," 150 cm -1.51"," 160 cm: -1.57"," 170 cm -1.57", 180 cm" -1.57"," 190 cm -1.51"," 200 cm -1.55"," 210 cm -1.63"," 220 cm -1.44"," 230 cm -1.44"," 240 cm -1.46"," 250 cm -1.53"," 260 cm -1.51"," 270 cm -1.44"," 270 cm -1.50"," 280 cm -1.57" Its fresh ice all right and needs 0 C to melt…….. It is so much easier to study when its colder! I've added a few more examples which make the state of ice written above look like Relativity! http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/06/from-optical-based-hypothesis-to-reality.html
Jim, it could have been the weather. Ie very windy or arrival of warm air from cyclone. Surface temperature warming will overwhelm what is coldest in the ice in no time, it shows the rate of warming of ice without measuring ice temperatures. Because the ice is warming and these curves show by how much and how fast... Well done! Now would like to announce here that my hypothesis on optical refraction observations and bottom ice melting has been confirmed, by what else? A buoy: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/06/from-optical-based-hypothesis-to-reality.html I never seen this kind of data before, so I am pleased that the hypothesis works. Time to celebrate, will take you to your favourite pub next time in England Jim!
Jim, From your last graph right above, we can notice the rapid cooling which can only be from sea ice. Are all these times synchronized? Time 0 what time UTC? June 1 looks weird.
Jim , that is big proprietary data, hope to see much more soon. I deduced possible events from optical refraction, would be good to see what one high resolution day looks like. Great thing of interest is snow which has similar heat capacity properties to ice. Namely an extension of sea ice top. 2014b 2013l 2011j superimposed graph would be the most intelligent thing about sea ice at this time.
Henry 1, I expected colder for the CA Archipelago and Beaufort adjoining. This is because of the remnant regional colder air but essentially by the thicker ice. This in turn created more persistent high pressures over the sector. Anticyclones at this time of the year promote melting. I don't see why you say the temperatures are significantly colder as per my buoy analysis above. The biggest difference with area between 2012 and 14 is with Kara sea, which is a bit slower in melting this year (its been cooler there as well), but it will all go. Comparing 2007-12 and 14 makes me believe we are still in for a great melt. http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=17&fy=2007&sm=06&sd=17&sy=2012
Many thanks Jim, its quite exciting, I read data far more precise than ever, however there is not enough, my curiosity monster needs more. Particularly a full buoy day at 15 minutes interval with air, snow and ice temperature profile. A simple requirement but, it is more complicated than that requiring many more datas spanning for days. For instance, the day before in Barrow temperatures was above 0 C. This complicates things further. Mean time work wise, graphs profiling Buoy surface air temperatures spanning a few years at about the same location certainly same time is a step in the right direction. Well done!