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Recent Activity that was NOAA model catching up with refraction methods
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
ECMWF is usually very good except for the Arctic, which has sparse data from many of its regions. On frequent occasions it shows quirky movements. Right now my own projection outlook of last month stands very sound, but I am cheating, I use data no one else has. Supercomputers versus the dawn of new kind of meteorology....
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John It may sound simple, sublimation (and other factor?) takes over by astounding 4 degree drop (at times) , but a snow column temperature profile varies daily, largely depending on clouds, but is the result of the energy flux at the interface between snow and air. Top of snow temperature is very helpful in finding the extent of the cryosphere, only if "skin temperatures" are readily available again. Laptev sea area will be the last remnant of the North Eastern Passage cold zone....
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have made a stunning snow temperature measurement 2 days ago, some -4.3 C below surface air temperature 2 meters above, with sun 20 degrees high shinning on the surface of mixed snow layers, fresh on top, harder below. This means that looser snow was sublimating fast, nevertheless, we find where the deeper snow lies we find where the colder air is:
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
"But is the ice loss driven more by air temperature or by influx of warm ocean water temperature?" It is both for certain ghoehler And more Snow is very major but poorly mapped, thinner sea ice mix with thicker configurations as well. And there is plenty more factors. It is hard to say with the surface data we have, but it appears that Arctic Ocean cyclones are still warmer than the High pressure over the gyre, of interest is when these temperatures will be equal, then the switch should happen when cyclones cool surface air instead.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
I remember reading many contrarian arguments that some tree rings were not equal all over the world suggesting that their usage is inadequate , or some country couldn't have vineyard during a certain period, but it was quite warm elsewhere therefore there is no such thing as Global Warming. However to the contrary, we have as I write, excellent example of a cool region, the CAA which is fueling warmth over a vaster region (the Arctic Ocean), in particular when cyclones are blocked from coming from the North Atlantic. Grasping this is called met or climate 101 for adults with a serious bent in learning. BTW GFS and ECMWF show an important Gyre anticyclone for at least until the 15th to 19th of May. Lesson learned :)... Bad for sea ice though...
Toggle Commented May 9, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, For everyone who did not monitor the Polar sat pictures, the regular Mid-April clouding over of most of the Arctic Ocean has happened, that was and is good news, it is a slow starter, but from a second lowest maximum volume, sea ice needs all the good news it can get, which will likely not come until mid June onwards, for a little while. The High over the Arctic Ocean gyre is still more or less about its business, despite GFS predicting there should have been a big Low there by now: Not a surprise, the GFS doesn't consider horizontal optical data at all.
Toggle Commented May 7, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Clueless The entire winter was mostly much warmer, so I expect the results you have posted, however there is something about post massive post El-Nino event which reverts to deeper cooling, at least in some bits of the Arctic, it is entirely natural, except that it is much smaller than Post 1998, which is not natural at all. So we have one sector , the CAA, having smaller but deep cold air mass which is bringing up the warmest circulation from the North Atlantic, basically all winter. The smaller deepest colder zone is fascinating, self sustaining and should last (much diminished) to minima come mid September. Hi Another Journey "you couldn't possibly see a real-time visual representation of this happening on the ground as we speak, by any chance, could you?" Sorry out of range, there has been some warming, but starting from the coldest point, it is still coldest... But that doesn't mean that the rest of Arctic isn't warm, I observe from within the coldest "vortice" of vortices found inside the ever so diminishing Polar Vortex.
Toggle Commented May 7, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
HI Clueless FM " I'm wondering whether or not your report implies that inversion over the CAA is gone or about to be lost" There can be many inversions until the temperature profile maxima, that is the maximum temperature of the entire upper air, the colder the atmosphere there more inversions may be above, lets look at this mornings temperature profile for Ny-Alesund Ii Svalbard: it has a small , called weak inversion peaking at 238 meters same station but February 15, 2018 colder makes for a stronger inversion to profile maxima. As a general rule, the colder the upper air the higher the altitude for the profile maximum, But it is the lower inversions, the ones right off the surface that are changing as well. These are found just above the surface, over the years these are gradually morphing from inversion (stable) to isothermal to adiabatic (unstable) as the Arctic gets warmer. It is much like confusing a May profile with a January one, they look too much alike. The unstable lower profiles at the interface between surface and air transfer heat upwards, as opposed to stable. In other words the lower temperature profiles averages in mid winter , particularly Svalbard can be mistaken for a late spring one say more than 10 years ago. Which is a matter of study. Center of CAA , optically I see it happening as I write, over the last 10 years there has been a gradual change from mainly stable towards unstable.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Sam. "I would add to your lament the near complete absence of recognition of the importance of the third dimensional movement of air and energy in the atmosphere. I have been unable to find detailed tracking of that anywhere " Very much indeed, at any given moment there is a great deal of energy in our atmosphere, especially at the end of winter, this energy simply does not vanish instantly, is like Lorenz Butterfly effect on a nuclear giga bomb scale, there should be some sort of quantification at each end of winter, may be in the future there will be... Thanks so much VaughnA You probably seen a green flash lasting a few seconds, they are observable up to several minutes long in the Arctic, enough to understand them more, but the actual sun disk size is of great value, ironic to use the sun which gives all our energy as a thermometer. If you live in the State of Washington by the coast, you could certainly witness many of them given time to do so, even especially amongst mountain valleys. However, if you really look closer at the horizon flat or high up, just like studying a painting by Van Gogh, you will find hidden in plain sight many signals from the atmosphere.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Your welcome VaughanA You'd be surprised who doesn't know much about refraction. I have learned that even many highly educated people, guys with multiple degrees, engineers etc, did not know that the sun disk splits in 3 colors, red bottom, middle yellow and top green blue. I am currently, as far as I know, the only guy that does the work I do, is a lonely field but important, since I can pick up what remote sensing platforms miss. I think the satellites use surface data, like "skin temperatures" and calculate the rest of the data upwards through models, without really capturing the temperature profile of the air, they might use other techniques, but they definitely failed to pick up the current cold air vortex in the Canadian Arctic. We shall see if the consequences of not knowing, oblivious to vital facts not plugged in the system, whether the mainstream high speed computers projections will still forecast accurately , but I think they will fail in some ways, because mr "AI" also does not know just as much as our best minds do . I would like to stress the importance of Neven's and others works, it affects peoples we never really have in mind, we want their world's saved: The plight of your people makes me work harder, Anote Tong....
Toggle Commented May 2, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I also understand that the degree of refraction is a function of the wavelength of the refracted light, and although this is of no consequence in navigation, does it play a role in this context?" Elisee, I deal with visible light, but refraction happens at all wavelengths, however red light is less bent than blue, this can be seen as the upper limb of the sun appears green at times blue , and the lower limb always red , some examples may be seen here: The vertical sun diameter above 5 degrees elevation is in fact directly proportional to the thermal gradient of the atmosphere, I use it as a means to determine the temperature of the entire atmosphere. Below 5 degrees , in particular below 2 degrees elevation, the sun may be distorted and reveal its atmospheric profile, either adiabatic/isothermal (rounder sun), or with an inversion called stable lapse rate, this kind of atmospheric profile may cause the sun to flatten considerably.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice Part 3 of my annual projection, includes a look back at last years effort, was quite successful. Describes last seasons big discoveries, and a forecast towards summer fall 2018 main events for the Northern Hemisphere. As always, sea ice is the most difficult to foresee, the greatest challenge, but I finally understood the great summer persistent cyclones hovering the Arctic Ocean at mid-summer, so this year I may have better results.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Elisee "and presumably, so does moisture content of the atmosphere, and that this effect can be quite severe at extremes of temperature and pressure." Moisture is not at all significant compared to density layers which comprise of mainly two elements , pressure and temperature. Since there is more pressure near the surface refraction is greater as seen by observer on the ground looking at either terrestrial and astronomical objects. Again from the ground, light rays or beams are bent downwards by refraction, the greater the density of the medium the greater the bending, such as a pencil place in glass of water. The closer the object is near the ground, the greater the refraction it may have, since we deal with Arctic Sea ice here , William Barents expedition of 1597 has observed the sun 3 weeks earlier than possible, this was a much debated claim over several centuries till recently.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi D-Penguin "Could it be that the link between observed sun refraction and ENSO is related to higher levels of water vapour in the atmoshere following an El Nino event?" Sun disk refraction measurements through clouds largely do not show any dramatic change in size. The biggest vertical sun compressions of late occurred with moist and dry atmospheres. However moisture plays a huge role with sea ice, in PART 3 I will present evidence that stronger Short Wave Radiation because of dry atmosphere effectively affects the energy balance on snow and ice surfaces. A moist atmosphere essentially reduces radiative heat on the ground. This was observed many times at the sea ice horizon, in particular I refer you to First Melt 2018 which occurred in extreme cold clear air but very dry weather. and Precipitable Water analysis which does indeed affect the sea ice horizon because less energy reaches its hard surface: "I do not understand your implied surprise that 'the ice keeps on being thin!' when the ice is melting with greater consistency from below than direct melting from above." The below part is possible given a warm sea water under current. But here we have the ultimate complexity of sea ice, there can be no immediate apparent connection between surface air temperature and sea ice thickness, consider a great layer of snow just above it, snow is a proxy for sea ice, a much thicker carpet of snow reduces sea ice accretion. The weather may be extremely cold but sea ice may remain thin. The end result , the certain thickness may not be explained easily, because contributing factors change daily or hourly. , the final product, a certain sea ice thickness does not readily explain the winter just past.
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice PART 2 mainly deals with optical prognosis and the struggle to understand current Arctic coldest air zone which will dominate till it gets very cold again, in October. I found again a huge causal link between sun refraction observations and ENSO. There is also extremely cool sunset pictures of seldom seen exotic events, never seen by 99% of all humans. Finally, despite significant cold zone the sea ice keeps on being thin!
Toggle Commented Apr 28, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
It has been a very busy data acquiring season, and there is a big surprise! 2018 will not be warmest year in history by a long shot. The CAA has had the coldest steady upper air since 2002, this will shape the entire melt season, not by what it infers, the Northern limit of the Northeast passage may be the North Pole! Because the coldest air is mainly in one zone alone affecting the weather for the entire Northern Hemisphere no less. Two more parts . prognosis and discussion will come out soon as well. The sea ice is likely going to be crunched against the North American coast.
Toggle Commented Apr 27, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have been observing a steady especially significant cold zone for a month, not seen as cold since 2002. It has not really been measured by manned surface stations since it was in an area without people. The optical refraction method permits long distance observations determining air temperatures going as far as 160 to 2000 kilometers. The results will be given in my yearly spring summer winter projection, but in the mean time: The Arctic Ocean Gyre current just got a major reconsolidation.
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
All winter long had 2 dominating main vortices within the Polar Vortex, the biggest most frequent one being the CAA relinquishing in an osclllating pattern dominance to the other roughly near Ohkotsk to East Siberian seas , until very end, when Novaya Zemlya Island Barents sea area had a very late smaller 'vortice'. This late arrival blocked incoming warm moist air from North Atlantic cyclones, which was happening throughout the past dark season, often ably pointed out by Jim Hunt. The main feature of winter past was the size of the vortices within the Polar Vortex system. They wee smaller, made themselves vulnerable by radically injecting Northwards these especially moist warm cyclones from our main biggest oceans. Often the vortices migrated Southwards by their own feedback action, pulling cyclones up, broke loose smaller rogue vortices to disrupt a milder winter to the South. As a result, the drying of the Arctic came extremely late, more than 3 months late, Of which a complex just discovered feature was revealed, Neven's 925 mb temperature map presented above, made CAA warmer in March that is correct, but only in the much lower atmosphere, ongoing vertical Sun disk captures, measured a massive cooling above that altitude, to date, 16th place coolest over the past 18 Arctic winters, smaller vertical sun disks imply massive cooling, because these measurements include extremely large atmospheric distances. In other words, the dye is almost set , either there will be this Novaya Zemlya block twinned with massive CAA dominance pulling cyclones towards Southern Norway, making drier air over the Arctic Ocean more possible, or the East Siberian 'vortice' will rise in prominence again, making warmer dryer air from Siberia devastating sea ice much further, either ways looks bad, but as I wrote the dye is not quite set, I will come up with my usual spring projection in a few weeks. A few weeks at this telling time of the year may provide certainty in the coming summer circulation patterns.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2018 on PIOMAS April 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
gkoehler That was a good catch by Gavin, and is easily explainable. less ice accretes during a very cloudy and warmer = long night exacerbated by El-Nino, but after a severe period, such as 2005, 2010 and 2016 , there was an extensive period of la-Nina. Far less clouds , theoretically good for winter, not so for summer. In effect, El-Nino winters are bad for accretion, diminish ice volume, subsequent La-Nina bad for summer minima, ripe for melting sea ice a whole lot more. So far this year La-Nina has vacillated and ENSO is considered Neutral, But it may have been enough to create a drier summer, doom for sea ice, I have observed a dominance of blue skies during the last month, if continuing so till July , Gavin will be proven right (nothing unusual!).
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
That is good news Jim Did they fix top thermistors overheating by sun rays problem I wonder?
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
"how does the record low ice extent for the Bering play into forecasting for cities such as Nome? " Greetings Jeff That would also create a great deal more influx from the North Pacific, making temperatures much warmer and wet, a lot of sea ice would have favored a more often presence of anticyclones which would have made your area drier and colder. What I have seen from Alaskan winter past was amazing, are the people there quite struck by all this warming?
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven I have rarely seen the Bering area, in particular Alaska being so warm all winter, Bering Russian side area apparently has no stations for good data. I can recall only 2 small periods of normal cooling. This was largely due to near static circulation associated with weak polar vortices, as reported in January, At least the equally warmer Novaya Zemlya region finally got cold about a week or 2 ago, but Alaska remained above normal all winter , and true enough, its ice footprint or lack of ice, describes this quite well.
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2018 on Bering goes extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim Upon further research a sun lower than 5 degrees affects thermistor readings if without winds, I am working on the exact sun elevation.... Hope you had a chance to measure top of snow temperatures when you had some. I naturally notice when the Arctic becomes dryer, hence colder during winter of course, but not for the sub-Arctic where the higher sun will warm the surface much quicker. So this small maximum volume is sparred from much further disaster by the drying up of the Arctic atmosphere more than 3 months late: Despite the good small cooling news all data points towards a massive melt come September, if the late drying of atmosphere accretes more sea ice where the sun is low, it melts it where it is high, especially at the fringes of the Arctic . Dry Arctic air is a 0 sum gain at this time of the year. Now is a matter of weather, no wide spanning fog and clouds are a disaster come mid April onwards.
Correct Robert As spring progresses top of snow hardens and shines with frozen water vapor from sublimation... A couple of important events are occurring, I believe a strong La-Nina is in the cards again, Arctic Ocean Atmosphere is finally "drying" out, as we can see with satellite pictures enormous leads spanning great distances. First Melt, an exotic refraction optical effect occurred on the 14th, repeated on the 20th with quite a showing of persistence, principally meaning the sea ice is very thin : The earliest date for First Melt in history (2010-2018) could not have come without a much warmer and moist Arctic atmosphere throughout winter, I expand on this clear air moisture topic with an article called:
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2018 on PIOMAS March 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice