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Recent Activity The drift indicates your assessment right Hans. What happens here is a false extent signal due to mixing, is common now a years. For 2017, we will get a very strong something, either cyclone storm or pervasive high pressure, sea ice remainders will settle on one side or another revealing the already open water a lot more. Is it possible to have melt ponds graph on Arctic Sea Ice graphs Neven? I find it interesting for revealing the thickest snow layers.
Toggle Commented Jun 28, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Very nice photos Jim If there was normal surface snow thickness the ice would appear vivid blue green, there is enormous amount of snow on sea ice in that area, it shows, therefore its all going to be gone sooner perhaps than ever. Great to see the action nearly live!
Toggle Commented Jun 27, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
In the vast area of Arctic Ocean If there is more sea ice snow than 2016, as Neven's melt pond graphs suggest, the collapse of sea ice will appear unnerving, sudden, unexplainable, but if we study a smaller area, such as Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and Barrow Strait: the larger Arctic Ocean Pack becomes easily predictable by the machinations of macro regions. Is a fact of physics you can learn on such wonderful science shows such as PBS NOVA (one of USA's greatest jewels, to be cut off if dumb dumb Trump gets his way). Water effects can be literally modelled on a very small scale. And so the Arctic Ocean mini models abound in nature, but having a lab would help further replicate. .
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice Jim , that Low is just about right indicating early stages of disintegration of the main pack ice, a tad earlier than I anticipated, I don't think it will persist as long as it will be in later August. Mean time I would trade some of my prediction skills for persuasion abilities, if I could, things are looking grim, many people don't know it, these are the voters of interest.
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2017 on Melting momentum: May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Be careful about what you say about your mother in law Neven, :) Next year there will be more rumble into the denialosphere jungle, good!
Toggle Commented Jun 1, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
AbbottisGone I agree, but that is where the corruption fails, it makes huge business sense to carpet a small portion of Australian desert with solar panels, jobs galore, even for cigar chomping uber well overpaid CEOs. I think there is a huge segment of the working class population completely ignoramus about anthropogenic climate change, that is because they listen avidly to deniers and corrupt - or not - skeptics, rather than our best and brightest scientists. Ignoring them gave Trump and the rest of anti-Earth well paid in a comfortable life pollution maniacs. We can preach to the choir all we want, but we need to educate the "Trump base" wherever they are on the planet. Admitting that skeptics ideas are stupid needs the audience which believes so. We ignore them and their number fester back in zombie numbers. Trump is the poster boy that ignoring or not doing -false equivalency debates - ie one scientist vs a mad man loving excess CO2 - has failed in some parts of the democratic world, We've learned the need to confront the fake skeptics or might as well turn to gardening in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Jun 1, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, That is a good point , but I am in favor of shining Brian Cox brilliance as opposed to Australian senator, who in fact is in power, who does decide and influence wrongly on the course of Climate policy, but especially bring out that deniers are wrong, can't brag that they are wrong without showing it! If they have attention about their failings that is not necessarily good for their portfolio? It is time to reflect the sorry nature of sea ice and those intending in seeing it disappear further by their misconceptions.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
I would strongly suggest to all AGW skeptics to melt away in the obscurity of crowds, before they make a complete arse of themselves, There is a skeptic here: [snip] Citing Feynman empirical evidence trumping the models, well yes, sea ice validates these models quite well, despite the difficulty in predicting to the nearest Centigrade decimal. [If that climate risk denier is so silly, then why draw attention to his Youtube video; N.]
Toggle Commented May 31, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Hans Extra snow and the usual cloudiness severely slowed the warming of otherwise earlier all time heat presence. But its days are few, and melt ponds will start at the lulls of snow on ice, essentially between snow drifts. The extra snow replaced sea ice, and melts much faster, look for above 0 temperatures and also drift velocities shortly after. The water on sea ice acts more or less like a darker pavement, penetrates the bottom of thicker snow layout in drift waves, then for the first time since last year top of sea ice with water will be at times warmer than air. The thinner sea ice will then fracture easier and sea water will add significantly to the warming warming mix, reducing clouds and green ponds will show, It doesn't look good. Good prediction Jim Trick for us sea ice Jedi: Check top of buoy thermistor temperatures when winds exceed 15 knots. Heat loss dissipates the photon warming.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Stunning total collapse of once steady sea ice North of Greenland and consequences: Last years Maxima massive disrupting decoiling wave breaking up of densest sea ice area reverberates to this day.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Bill ". That is, it's possible for the ice to be warmer than the air above it with help from the sun." Never without movement, you can take an ice cube at 0 and place it outside at -20, it will be warmer than air for a very short time. In nature without flipping an iceberg, or a sliding glacier bit, the top of sea ice or snow is always colder or as warm as air. Sublimation cools the top layer, with clear day sun full blast above at 30 degrees elevation, the air temperature can almost be identical to top of sea ice or snow but never warmer. In summer that is easier to understand, ice is equal or colder than 0 C, so if it is 2 C outside, ice will be of course colder never equal when above the freezing point, this gives an interesting mirage of the ice horizon rising, In winter this becomes murkier, but all proper measurements makes top of sea ice colder or same temperature as surface air. The reasons are a subject o study especially driven from the First Rule of Sea Ice Horizon Refraction. Optical observations are the most precise indirect temperature non intrusive reading possible, even with full sun blasting top of sea ice, seen from afar the horizon never drops below Astronomical Horizon, however with sea water the horizon easily drops below Astro Horizon when air is colder surface sea temperatures, this implies that temperature of top of sea ice, with or without snow is always colder or equal.
Toggle Commented May 28, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice Northern Nares Strait was cloudless enough to glimpse total chaos even compared with the previous 5 years, a location currently having broken up sea ice where it never happened year round.
Toggle Commented May 21, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Susan Boston area is nice in the fall , but I will be in the High Arctic at that time. Thanks for the invite though.
Toggle Commented May 21, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil WE see now a new sea ice world, more fragile than ever, at the brink of chaos to be caused by a normal summer. Unprecedented is the norm.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi NeilT "The day we see totally ice free in summer is more than one decade away, " I would agree, but not for most of remaining sea ice, think 2007, with a lot more sea ice than now, yet a massive meltdown occurred where the thickest ice was. 2007 marked the beginning of the end, when anything can happen fast. I do agree that Greenland and Ellesmere stands in the way for a complete disappearance of sea ice, the extreme image of complete blue Arctic Ocean is a bit far away, but 80% gone at minima is not impossible this or any other year after 2017.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim I'll announce overall steep downward loss of sea ice trend when it hits, we not quite there yet, but break ups like the one you presented is very 'a propos", and will be the norm because the ice as per your example, is glued together by thin leads covered with lots of snow, It may seem solid, but it is in a very fragile state easily broken up. A bit higher temps and sea ice armageddon will start. By the way, there is no chance of 4 C warmer top of sea ice or snow than surface temperature as per Buoy data at times. I would suggest transparent alcohol thermometers on a webcam :), they exhibit the least affectation by sunlight, not they are impervious to sun rays, at least they don't go as wild as thermistor do with photons. I'll have something on this soon.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Those following winter's just past astounding Arctic Ocean all time warmer temperatures may have a hard time to explain this: Unless of course we also take into account abnormally thick snow on sea ice and Arctic lands. Not made readily verifiable, which is a blind spot, but snow cover right next the Arctic Ocean was and is still heavy with snow, inferring a bright white insulation delaying onset of a super melt. I explain further on my annual discourse: I am quite pleased unusually cold sun disk data reflected this cooling in the atmosphere, as early as mid March, to what we now see on the surface. At present being on course for a foggier cloudier early melting season start, alas to take a steep quick turn for the usual great melt when snow turns to water rather quickly when average surface temperatures approach the 0 mark. Snow has not the staying prowess of sea ice., but replaces it when very deep.
Toggle Commented May 6, 2017 on PIOMAS May 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice My annual projection of weather events to come is out, and it has a lot of surprises, namely vast expansive thick snow layer related changes. Why vast? Because it was measured in the colder Arctic total atmosphere spanning hundreds at times thousands of kilometers by using the sun as a measuring template. However it turned cold very late in the winter season, perhaps making things worse for Arctic sea ice.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Robert S Indeed, we should look at GRIBB to see if a) it has a permanent Arctic winter inversion from surface to at least a couple of meters above or higher, and b) how long in the spring it keeps that inversion, if it has one in the first place. This will tell if the models incorporate this.
Toggle Commented Apr 30, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
"top of snow vs surface air temperature difference LESSER than when the wind calms"
Toggle Commented Apr 30, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
That is correct Robert S But it gets overwhelmed from too much heat as the sun rises, similar to measuring a material covered with acetone, a warmer surface would mask the cooling detected on previously cooler surface, of course provided one does not know acetone is on the surface. Also Just found out, when windier and sunny, top of snow vs surface air temperature difference is greater than when the wind calms, this is text book correct. The significant problem is measuring accurately, I have measured 3 to 4 C cooler top of snow than surface air, it seems astounding that sublimation is responsible, more likely residual temperature from previous colder days. Today was more like .2 to 1 C. I favor, .1 to .4 C cooling, because the math makes more sense.
Toggle Commented Apr 30, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, Been very busy, but I found a few things, namely, thermistors are UV sensitive (coming article), so most top buoy thermistor readings need be very carefully scrutinized with time of day and weather conditions, best advice is to consider them accurate when very cloudy or very dark. Meantime I continued studying snow sublimation, which is turning out to be a very important player in Arctic surface temperatures. Is very madenning to try to get correct temperature readings within or near snow. Consider this sea ice season snow dominated, so my latest work is very timely.
Toggle Commented Apr 28, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim Could be so, however 2017 b ice starts with certainty from bottom thermistor 19, they call 172 cm ice, this leaves 2 thermistors above ice, of which thermistor 1 may be in air the other in snow 7 to 9 cm thick. I have learned by multiple observations that surface air temperature varies very little in 2 meters. A colder top of snow by 2 C may have a .2 C temperature inversion to the surface air height. 2017a top thermistor variations were impossible, and that is because the sun varied in altitude a lot more. The mere presence of rays causing bright snow affect thermistors. Even in a shade right next to lit snow, because light scatters and travels very well below its skin.
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
2017a (last transmission) had a larger diurnal solar input variance due to its latitude: 4/2/17 12:00 -26.55 1013.51 0.1 1.02 0 -1.02 -27.06 -27.13 -25.86 -19.79 -14.04 4/2/17 13:00 -26.87 1013.91 4/2/17 14:00 -26.71 1014.32 4/2/17 15:00 -26.55 1014.73 4/2/17 16:00 -25.34 1015.14 0.1 1 0 -1 -25.03 -25.04 -24.21 -19.6 -14.29 4/2/17 17:00 -22.89 1015.41 4/2/17 18:00 -20.71 1015.83 4/2/17 19:00 -20.8 1016.22 4/2/17 20:00 -20.04 1016.77 0.07 1.02 0 -1.02 -17.89 -16.63 -17.57 -16.25 -13.47 4/2/17 21:00 -17.97 1016.9 4/2/17 22:00 -17.53 1017.38 4/2/17 23:00 -16.62 1017.72 4/3/17 0:00 -17 1017.99 0.08 1.02 0 -1.02 -9.75 -6.48 -10.7 -13.66 -12.59 4/3/17 1:00 -17.67 1018.39 4/3/17 2:00 -17.88 1018.67 4/3/17 3:00 -17.78 1018.94 4/3/17 4:00 -19.95 1019.21 0.09 1.02 0 -1.02 -14.86 -13.91 -14.54 -14.36 -12.46 4/3/17 5:00 -22.36 1019.48 4/3/17 6:00 -23.36 1019.82 4/3/17 7:00 -23.88 1020.02 4/3/17 8:00 -25.08 1020.3 0.08 1.02 0 -1.02 -25.54 -25.61 -24.21 -18.02 -13.22 4/3/17 9:00 -24.9 1020.84 4/3/17 10:00 -25 1020.97 4/3/17 11:00 -25.64 1021.18 4/3/17 12:00 -25.88 1021.52 0.09 1.02 0 -1.02 -27 -26.87 -25.23 -18.77 -13.6 We can see here when the sun is lower between 08:00 and 12:00 the always more accurate surface reading was warmer than top of sea ice or snow thermistors, the extraordinary jump in temperature at 00z when sun is highest, top of snow sea ice warmer than surface air by 9 C is impossible. Also consider the specific heat capacity of sea ice , much bigger than air, In other words, sea ice Cp makes T variances much slower than air. To sum it up, the Mass Buoy surface temperature reading is a better approximation of top sea ice temperature than top 3 or 4 thermistor actual readings. As a guide to seasonal thermal evolutions, this is absolutely crucial to consider.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim I like it, but be weary of the top 5 thermistor readings, 4/11/17 8:00 -28.62 1024.78 0.09 1.72 0 -1.72 -27 -26.62 -26.24 -25.35 4/11/17 9:00 -27.21 1024.64 4/11/17 10:00 -26.3 1024.57 4/11/17 11:00 -25.9 1024.64 4/11/17 12:00 -25.57 1024.51 0.09 1.72 0 -1.72 -24.66 -24.34 -23.96 -23.26 4/11/17 13:00 -23.82 1024.37 4/11/17 14:00 -22.58 1024.1 4/11/17 15:00 -23.18 1023.96 4/11/17 16:00 -22.39 1023.83 0.08 1.72 0 -1.72 -21.74 -21.36 -21.18 -20.92 4/11/17 17:00 -21.39 1023.49 4/11/17 18:00 -21.27 1023.28 4/11/17 19:00 -21.36 1022.87 4/11/17 20:00 -20.68 1022.6 0.08 1.74 0 -1.74 -19.78 -19.59 -19.66 -19.91 4/11/17 21:00 -19.7 1022.46 4/11/17 22:00 -17.79 1022.46 4/11/17 23:00 -16.85 1022.33 4/12/17 0:00 -16.47 1022.26 0.07 1.7 0 -1.7 -16.12 -16.25 -16.37 -17.32 4/12/17 1:00 -16.24 1022.46 4/12/17 2:00 -16.61 1022.33 4/12/17 3:00 -16.43 1022.06 4/12/17 4:00 -16.2 1021.78 0.07 1.74 0 -1.74 -15.81 -15.87 -15.87 -16.82 4/12/17 5:00 -16.7 1021.65 4/12/17 6:00 -16.57 1021.24 4/12/17 7:00 -17.26 1020.97 4/12/17 8:00 -15.56 1020.69 0.09 1.72 0 -1.72 -15.17 -15.17 -15.3 -16.44 2017b has very little solar irradiance variance at the moment, but none of the top 3 or 4 are colder than the surface reading, this is highly unlikely.
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2017 on PIOMAS April 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice