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I added a picture of March 17 2014, it looks like the sea ice has pilled up for miles! But it is in fact colder thicker ice and sea water, the two make the warming sun rays ineffective in warming the ice totally.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The evidence and consequences of much thicker CAA sea ice is in, the underside melting has just started 3 weeks late than previous 4 seasons. Anticyclones are much more pervasive than last year at this time.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Greater ice thickness over the larger Canadian Archipelago area has already affected CAA weather to be mainly anticyclonic for more than a month. So 2013 lack of compaction of sea ice is highly unlikely. The NW passage will open late under a cloudier cover if El-Nino becomes strong. However it is strangely already here to some degree, consider the near entire North Pacific anomalously warm effectively being like an El-Nino for the Northern Hemisphere, the sea ice will melt quicker from the extra heat, thicker sea ice anticyclonic period will be lasting a while further, surrounded by cyclones in the open water regions bordering land without snow.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, 2011 has some similarities with 2014 to date, but there was no strong La-Nina in December 2013 . 2011 was right after the warmest year in history. 2013 was 4th. Ice wise 2013-14 had a very cloudy winter. 2011-12 was equally cloudy. The only determinant factor left is El-Nino, which if strong will change the circulation dynamics and cloud coverage. I can say with a great deal of confidence that sea ice is much thicker in the Lower North American Arctic, not so during the same period in 2011. This thicker ice favors anticyclone genesis creating a near certain greater influx of solar heat right where the thickest ice can melt during the right period (May till end of July). Doomcomessoon , yes cyclones are jokers indeed, they reverse seasonal trends, making winter warmer and summers colder. But 2014 has no semblance of 2013 which had cyclonic, or pervasive surface adiabatic presence from spring all the way to February 2014. The jokers are taking a small break it seems.
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris , Ice wise perhaps a 2010, weather wise no, 2010 had a particular explosion of sun disk vertical diameters similar to 2005. which made me predict it be warmest year in history in March. This was because El-Nino peaked in January, warmth and clouds from it spread all over the world. So I'd expect 2014 to be more like 2012 weather wise, but the ice field is different than at the beginning of 2012.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
The greater the precision accuracy the greater the mastery of the subject. I think that those who don't project lack confidence and fear showing that they lack understanding. Those who try eventually learn from their mistakes and become masters only when the ultimate peer reviewer, the future, agrees. This year should be easier to be accurate given that El-Nino appears to be here. Again the lesson of 2013 was compaction plays a role, the best ENSO combination should be a strong El-Nino over the winter and a La-Nina appearing at about End of May (a la 2010). But a look back at 2012 it was: La-Nina like in January: trending El-Nino Mid april a small El-Nino in July lasting a while and we know what happened in 2012. This year we will have likely a stronger El-Nino, if so it is bad news for sea ice. Arctic past winter was warm same as 2012, the continents were colder in Europe 2012, north America in 2014, again similar. The main difference so far is that there is a colder zone at about the Archipelago. However up to date Sun disk observations have picked up warmish signals from a cold start, the atmosphere is already rapidly warming. This because it was mainly clear weather. Again not so good for sea ice because anticyclones , clear weather generators, these exacerbate melting in the summer. Until my data is more complete, tentative projection 2014 melt will surpass 2012.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
With Maxima behind, the quick gain of ice extent last week should disappear at the same rate formed. I am also quite impressed with further a link between ENSO and Arctic cloud coverage. We remember a short lived LaNina after a brief surge towards El-Nino at end of January. Well its been remarkably cloudy and not cloudy in the same sequence in the NorthAmerican sector of the Arctic, which prompted the return of the Arctic Ocean Gyre driven by strong anticyclones. Our world is smaller meteorological wise than I once believed. Finally remnants of winter only lingers in Central to Eastern North America, while the rest of the Northern Hemisphere basks in warmer temperatures. This is an example of what might have happened during the medieval warming period, suggesting that a warm North Pacific and Atlantic may have played a role.
Toggle Commented Mar 25, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hubert, Gratulujemy miejscu około lodu morskiego..... The 2014 maxima will be bi-polar in nature, with a cold ice zone and a warm ice majority area. I think the cold zone will grow further until May, and the warm zone has already started to shrink.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The biggest question of this coming melt season has been answered. Close to the Arctic Ocean Gyre Anticyclone activity is returning. Contrary to last year's multiple "ground hog day's" forever observing persistent surface to air adiabatic profiles. More compaction should guaranty a greater melt than last year, despite the "record cold " winter in the Central to East part of North America, I guess Europeans are jealous not having much of a winter. :)
Toggle Commented Mar 15, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
It is always weather Chris, but thinner sea ice makes the weather behave differently. Less sea ice is destructive to the size of the winter bulge. But alas even simple weather is not reported accurately, hence the planetary wide confusion about what the Climate is doing, I scoff at the greatest minds not digging a little on this daily subject readily disseminated rarely right. I wonder how humanity made it so far? But that is because the modern techno world is about 100 years old.
Toggle Commented Mar 8, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yet, if you look at the entire pan-arctic area it was , so far , a very warm winter. So we hear, "Arctic Blast" freezing the Great Lakes solid, but a closer look reveals the culprit, the continents which are historically unchanged, while the Arctic has its carpet pulled from under its feet....
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Wether, was thinking likewise. The bigger question is when this circulation pattern will diminish. Because if it continues through the summer it will be similar melt year as of 2013. My latest data , from all forms of observations, suggest a mild return to anticyclonic activity. If this carries through long term, the melt will be greater because compaction is needed to create physical conditions favoring melt feedbacks. But if anti compaction continues well beyond extent maxima, we are in for similar cold Arctic summer with still a small minima say within top 10. The mechanics are set for otherwise though, low sea ice extent automatically means Cyclones hanging about shores and open waters of the Arctic Ocean, this would leave the center of the pack to be anticyclonic.
It is a catch 22 situation, the onslaught of cyclones from North Atlantic and North Pacific warm the Arctic Ocean. this warmth slows down ice accretion by the heat and clouds they bring, back full circle thinner ice allow cyclones to penetrate the Arctic more easier. I am seeing rare things becoming common, like Lows circulation around Greenland's perimeter counterclockwise. This has been warming Svalbard nearly constantly. The degree by which Svalbard's temperature anomalies directly correlate the intensity of these incursions. It is not the same end of winter as last year.
Chris , Studies need validation, an elegant elementary re-confirmation, repeated as often as possible by anyone who wants to check them. Finding an example denying robust studies conclusions always will reveal hidden facets usually ignored. I think overall averaging should work, with some caveats particularly about deep southwards meanders and also expansive cyclonic behaviors, but Northwards shift examples should be common. I don't think it is particularly useful to rely strictly on studies especially when they sometimes contradict each other. It demeans the facts, and confuses by useless doubts from not knowing them thoroughly.
Chris, "But there are studies that show a northward movement of the jet using a large range of years to establish broader patterns of change than comparing one set of years. I just think it's best to rely on those studies." Fine with me, but again, you can use examples which confirm these studies. I would be very keen on reading a study suggesting otherwise. Find this example of yours showing a month when the jet did the opposite of what it should be doing. I am not impressed by usual meteorological presenter saying the "jet stream is there" therefore the weather " is like this". The stream lies where it should be, The correct interpretation is that it exists where the pressure heights drop significantly, but mostly at the border where cold atmosphere meets a warmer one.
Hi Chris "It's not really proper to compare two discrete periods and declare that the jet is moving more northward. I could pick two periods and show the opposite!" Not quite, pick another winter equally bitterly cold on both sides of the hemisphere, highly likely that the jet stream will be Southwards. It is pure logic. Would you suggest the stream to exist any other place then at the polar/temperate interface?? Small streams occur in the Polar region now because there are warmer meso- atmospheres unusually steady at high latitudes
Jai is hitting it right on. I cite a simple example that is clear and complements Francis writiing: ...." this northward shift – in particular the larger shift in high latitudes where warming is greatest – that we hypothesized would be a factor causing the waves to elongate." It is a relatively simple, the cold Polar Air interface with temperate zone, the likely location of the jet stream, moves more Northwards over the northern Oceans which are warming and keep the air above them equally at higher temperatures. While during winter, land being land cools as always the air right above it relatively much more. This causes a jet stream elongation , a greater Northwards bifurcation over the North Atlantic and Pacific. A more pronounced Southwards shift forced by the physics of easily moving sub-Arctic atmospheres Southwards. These greater more consistent meanders have great significance over many regions.
Werther, the PDO is like the AO, too big for its own good. I think the North Pacific temperature anomaly is by far greatly influencing the main jet stream course for at least one half of the planet. The SSW may reflect the current weather patterns in the troposphere, it gives some - cooling feedback especially at center of the PSV.
Toggle Commented Feb 18, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I am not a fan of sea ice extent because thinner or thick ice shows up the same. But the lack of extent at this time of the year confirms the effect of a certain cyclonic favoring weather pattern likely at its end. I elaborate What makes a lasting pattern helps create the next one.
Big news came from NOAA expecting El-Nino to come soon as well as we have written here a while back. If so, this has huge implications for coming sea ice melt season, its a matter of figuring out the necessary changes in Global Circulations, whether we will have highly cyclonic Summer Arctic or not. Intuitively there should be more clouds, but the circulation patterns may change from current cyclonic rut, compaction may return, along with much warmer weather, a challenge for 2012 melt is in the cards despite more clouds.
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2014 on 2014 Nares Strait ice bridges at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven , I am equally interested in coming Piomas data, it will bring out the effects of more clouds vs drier air with less cyclonic intrusions. What I see so far, is much warmer air Little U of Maine rocks: Replete of sun rays Arctic has the warmest temperature anomalies in the world. +7 C for 1st February. This is due to thinner sea ice allowing more frequent cyclonic penetrations, always bringing heat with them.
Toggle Commented Feb 2, 2014 on 2014 Nares Strait ice bridges at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes Hubert, it is so warm in the Arctic it split coldest winter in two, creating havoc in Georgia USA also favoring a greater cooling West of the Urals.
Toggle Commented Jan 31, 2014 on 2014 Nares Strait ice bridges at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan, the Pacific is already mostly above normal: while 1998 same date was almost a negative of the same picture: We see what current conditions do to California and Australia, perhaps a resurfacing El-Nino will help? But it will not be the same as 1998 if the rest of the Pacific remains anomalously warm.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
New sea ice is thinner, less solid than multi-year ice. Therefore many more leads are created. These leads unleash a greater onslaught of sea salts. These new leads are daily created by the thousands, they freeze quickly especially in darkness, some are compressed between older ice pans, these crush the new ice causing upwards piles of shingles or plates, this occurs especially when there is a lot of motion, these piles of new ice are rich in sea salts as well. The winds take care of spreading the salts more evenly. Come spring time photochemistry causes the said reactions. The whole thing is part of the process of the thinning of the overall sea ice pack.
Toggle Commented Jan 16, 2014 on Bromine, chlorine and mercury at Arctic Sea Ice
El-Nino appears to be making a come back , but the rest of the Pacific is already very anomalously warm. If the rest of Pacific remains overheated, along with this potential El-Nino, it will be warmest year in history with huge implications for sea ice. A very late sea ice minima date for one thing, not a brutal melting season, but a slow gradual one. The key for a great melt is as much sun rays at the right spring early summer time and how much compression compaction there will be. Must study what happens to Global Circulation when El-Nino rages, however I think that precedents may be not available, the entire Pacific may be significantly anomalously warm at once.
Toggle Commented Jan 14, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice