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John, Visualize this: no stable Highs over the much weakened Arctic Ocean pack until the pack freezes solid. Sorry I can't describe Denmarks High origin because I did not study it , but I can do the Arctic . It is a great weakness of most who use AO's to describe things, it does not explain anything but vague generalities, without knowing the source reason. So picture this: Arctic Ocean loose pack with warm water "invites" Lows to penetrate the pack surface area until its cold enough by darkness, in the case of 2015 the water was much warmer, the sea ice much weakened, the pack consolidated much later. Once a near North Pole large patch of consolidated pack can acquire much colder air than surrounding areas, its denser surface air flows Southwards, Coriolis effect makes it flowing towards warmer air turn Right, voila : anticyclone-genesis. Don't you like knowing why there is a High pressure rather than describing that it is there? Work on understanding the reasons why AO is + or -, then you will know when winter starts!
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, I am as clear as it gets especially if you go to the link presented. Sea ice Consolidation is confirmed when Highs subsist at about the Pole especially at this time of the year. Previous Heat sources were multiple as you cited just one, they've delayed the onset of winter. You must visualize the reflection of a solid consolidated pack twinned with very clear and cold air right above it. If you can't see it you wont understand. You must look at the image without complicating it with causations. The capitals used is to emphasize the lateness of consolidation and clear air (that was obvious wasn't it? Or shall I use colour characters :) )....
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
John: "So I am speculating that sea ice right now is primarily generated deeper within the ice pack and then as leads freeze over and the central pack increases in thickness, the ice pack spreads from the center (Either by the increase in ice thickness or by winds moving it into areas of open water) rather than growing at the edges." Not bad, but once the main pack is strongly consolidated frozen as it is ONE MONTH LATE now, drifting snow spreads outwards and basically is a precursor to more freezing at its outwards limits, likely because sea water convection is stopped. The present anticyclone over the pack is very late: A sure sign of a coming mild winter for most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Toggle Commented Oct 13, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
A double Polar atmospheric squeeze, one typhoon and one hurricane heading North Polewards will enhance an anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean gyre next weekend. Likely another drop in extent again in the cards if ECMWF plays it right.
Toggle Commented Oct 4, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
A new weather game is a foot, where instead of having a massive High at about the North Pole, there is a massive very large pan-Arctic Low, the result: a shrinking, yes reduction in extent again way pass the minimum. From 5069941 to 5053825 Km2 since yesterday. Amazing and expected, the state of the ice, as portrayed above, is very poor, and vulnerable even though it should expand and solidify. 2016 is already shaping up to be a severe melt regardless of lack of compaction.
Toggle Commented Oct 3, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
True Melting of sea ice extent or volume is at present directly muddled by compaction, consider 2006 volume drop as compared to 2007, a well known Arctic dipole melt event. Consider removing this dipole event and imagine what sea ice would be like at 2007 minimum. Those who suggest that there is sea ice recovery from 2012 must factor in compaction effects before effectively declaring a cooling and therefore recovery. 2013 was declared a recovery year ad nauseam without considering that 2013 had practically no dipole. Comparing sea ice melts must also consider physical dynamics.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
"So the news is that dark streaks on the surface of Mars have been analysed and are showing evidence of having been created by salty water. Clearly the next question is how much water lies under the surface of Mars?" Its a busy news day for all things cold, Water on Mars amongst other headlines (where it gets really cold), I find NASA's finds compelling but not quite live: There is a way to find water on Mars, and its in permafrost, something we know very well here on Neven's blog. So if there is permafrost the distant horizon altitude would change for no apparent reason, especially when daily temperatures change so dramatically. Here on Earth, I can "see" the ice under rocks, because surface rocks warm up fast in the sun, but the colder permafrost just below would cool down the surface layer fast at sunset, allowing a gradual horizon boost to be visible. If there was a great Martian ocean, there should be a lot of permafrost, of which detecting the water is made easier, even though the atmosphere there is thinner than Earth, the daily temperature variances are huge, this should make it possible to detect the presence of water on Mars.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, Physical Reality is yesterday the sea ice extent JAXA day 26 4,758,781 day 27 4,737,804 mn2. 20,000 km2 less some 10 or 20 days after minimum (depending on which official statement), after I said it would be possible. And Ships logs as you cited largely confirm the areas ice conditions we've seen on sat pictures. The physics which did not happen was a strong compaction process over the melting season. Which entails more insolation and therefore a larger apparent melt. We must consider compaction much more significantly making pronouncements about the state of sea ice. I would like to see a model which would calculate the true melt of each season while removing compaction process.
Toggle Commented Sep 27, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, "But of course, if in principle you could pile all ice in one huge heap, then any area record would be broken.. " : Ridging For those who don't know, here is some of the rest: Compaction like 2007 occurs over the entire melting season by what is called Arctic Dipoles. Ice otherwise spread out broken in different phases of thickness or melting compact in favorable synergistic weather conditions, the process exacerbates the over all melting significantly once water is exposed to insolation. The first figure above show a significant extent of 2015 sea ice not compacted spread about mixed with water but likely counting as 100% coverage. The other thing not presented is the rest of the pack appearing 100% snow white, but in various stages of melt, with thinner mixed with thicker ice with leads which is easily compactable given the right conditions. But this did not happen extensively. All things considered, there has been no recovery since 2007, just sea ice self defense posturing, by spreading itself thanks to the new order of weather establishing itself in the Arctic. This albedo stance has its limits as 2015 has showed. In particular the lack of consolidation is revealed by the lack of anticycllones over the main pack at this time. No super anticyclone cooling of the Arctic will make the ice thinner for the next season.
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, Your first figure shows 2012 minima looks almost the same as 2015, but there were different paths leading up to nearly similar final results. With more compaction, 2015 would have easily beaten 2012. We are in a new kind of melt/circulation geophysics meteorological dynamics, changing in newer ways year by year. It is very difficult task to project exactly especially when the ice morphs to newer configurations faster than the sum of our experience can reveal.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John , "The AO index has only been positive for the past 5-6 days, and is forecast to turn negative in the next couple of days:" THe AO area or boundaries are vast well beyond the Arctic, for that reason it has meaning for something else than just the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
John, The only source for Arctic High Pressures is Greenland at present. The presence of continuous Cyclones at about the Pole does the reverse of compaction, and masks the real damage going about, this seems to be the way sea ice will vanish, the Pack will shrink year to year, highly similar to Global Temperature trends, in steps, like you sometimes suggest. I don't see compaction wiping out sea ice completely in one season anymore. If a High remains during summer over Greenland, as what last summer suggests, the sea ice pack will spread out along with Cyclone action countering any strong compaction especially like summer 2007. Its Arctic Sea Ice last stand. Amazing projection sketch of mine came through just now, 5 months later than drawn. The power of crayons outmatch the best computer models because the artist had sea ice in mind: Those who forget the Arctic have a serious projection precision problem when it comes to long range work, I gave a few examples.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
Not so fast with the rebound , as per Jaxa today, a mere +577 km2, I wont be surprised if ice extent shrinks again because sst and st conditions are very warm and cloudy everywhere in the Arctic These unknown warm times may necessarily not have the usual seasonal ice accretion for vast areas in particular with respect to normal sea ice extent. Present unstable weather , triggered by lesser sea ice, fosters more stable open water. The opposite, is good for large Highs creating cloud free mega areas very good for cooling our planet. Present Arctic sea ice in the main pack may not be very consolidated because I have not seen the regular onset of low sun massive anticyclone genesis yet. Surprises are bound to happen. Sea surface temperatures , particularly coming from the main pack is 0 to +1 C in the Central Canadian Archipelago. Beaufort has +4 to +5 C stt's, wow...
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin, " today's sharp drop looks a tad suspicious" not in the least bit! Like deep throat said but with a met twist "follow the weather" the Gyre is normal for a while.......
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Navegante, What we observe is the strange back and forth clockwise counterclockwise circulation of the main Gyre, same as every summer since 2013 Maximum. This years circulation was clockwise on a few more occasions than 2014, less than I imagined. In 2013 it was perhaps -----nil---- over all equal clockwise and counterclockwise gyres. What we see is how sea ice will eventually completely go: 'melting in place'. Not very exciting, slow like AGW; a 1 mile per hour train crash on 25,000 miles track. This said my own a few weeks ago words predicted the minima to be later than usual, as it appears to be so, on JAXA 50,000 km2 apparent melt today, it is not really a melt, is the Gyre turning as it did in the not so long ago past with some melting from the very warm Arctic Ocean surface water. Now is really when we realize there is a change, especially dynamically. This winter looks bleak for sea ice, clouds from perhaps the strongest El-Nino in recorded history will slow the refreeze accretion in darkness, if a reverse strong La-Nina returns come May 2016, the March 2016 Maxima will appear grand and extensive with very thin solar ray vulnerable sea ice, if so, next years minima will be very small, despite the gyre turning more often than not, not at all.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Reduced compaction seems the new summer normal Neven. It is a lot to do with a warmer Arctic, where there is a lack of temperature contrasts and apparently steadier persistent cyclonic activity. This is why I would like to see long term model animations. Because I can't fathom a summer dipole like 2007 or 2012 to reoccur often. But as warm and cold temperatures are now clashing, a dipole is more likely. And this is where their might be a surprise steep compaction if the dipole develops strongly. If I think correctly sea ice will eventually vanish completely during summer more without motion, melting in place, rather than pushed around and compressed.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2015 on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
Well done Neven, Late in season biggest most important factors for further melting until minima are ice thickness and sea water temperatures (closely tied to sea ice temperatures). SST's are very warm in the Pacific sector from the Pole, very warmest as usual on the Atlantic side. The core ice pack is likely very loosely consolidated, august 22 2015 EOSDIS gave a glimpse in the Russian sector from North Pole:,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),Graticule,Coastlines&t=2015-08-22&v=-1833664,-814528,1809728,848448 So any extensive compaction, i.e. Arctic Dipole, would further and dramatically reduce Extent surprisingly rapidly. There is also El-Nino twinned with North Pacific warm sst's. Which will likely delay the minima date by a week or more. I have patiently waited to see anything which would make 2015 exceed 2012 minima, and announce it daringly. But the new melt season circulation pattern, warmer Arctic Ocean more cyclonic activity. Especially revealed during 2013 melt season, this counter Arctic Ocean Gyre circulation has persisted again this season, and will make me wait further. However, 2015 will easily be in 2nd place, with a good possibility to surpass 2012 even from this late date.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2015 on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
Warning to all fake skeptics, especially to those who read them at WUWT, here was example of vast non knowledge presented, in terms of their great skills in assessing sea ice: >>>>>Neven, are you the Warden, or just the head inmate? [Snipped some of the exaggerations/insults, but yes, I'm the head inmate, and you're the paragon of rational thought; N.] In any event, the inmates here will be sadly disappointed when this year's melt reaches Wrangel Island, north of which the ice is 6 meters thick. Sorry guys, that will be all she wrote. [Of course, I'll let this one stand too, for future reference; N. :-) ] Posted by: Cincinnatus | April 02, 2015 at 03:34<<<<<<<<<< Look at poor Cincinnatus Bombed out prediction 40 days before Minima: outch!!! I warned him, but alas no recant, no reasoning, just bland "gut " politically motivated "feelings" jutting all over the place. I must remind that reality is blunt and unrelenting, but predictable if your feet are anchored in the practice of science……. And then I wrote Baffin Bay sea ice will melt much slower, but geeeeez , its been awesomely slow, 2015 has its own style. Much predictable by a rather spectacularly stable winter pattern.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2015 on PIOMAS August 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, we see that, also NW passage has been open for a few days on East-West side of Peel Sound depending on the winds, NE passage equally open, the melt over Beaufort is not surprising at all with ice moving above on and off warmer water. The only thing which surprises me is that many people seem bored, expecting that this will be another year like 2013-14. But CT reports -1.589 million square km anomaly for the first time since 2012, 2015 should be in 3rd place JAXA wise tomorrow, and still there is some ice in Baffin Bay!
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Remko, I entirely agree with your assessment, although small compared worldwide, it is too large to have meaning in most instances. It is perhaps good for temperature fluctuations, but over all, I won't use it for pressure cycles because a large High over say elsewhere than over the Arctic basin in the AO zone affects the index. The NAO is very good. PDO has size problems, And ENSO is mostly good.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
…. And the AO, however big region it covers is positive because _____________________ and negative because ______________________. Feel free to explain this overstated , overused not always useful and nebulous oscillation John.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, its the forecast, and I am sure these temps have been there for a while. It is very warm. I also wonder if the dumb dumbs at WUWT -you know who you are - have figured out that some of these communities have less than 2000 people. No Urban heat Island on a huge majority of these communities. Just to stall a pre-emptive disinformation attempt.
If you get through don't forget to mention you have "seriously I have no recording devices whatsoever but speak slowly I take notes" :) Now back to sea ice: 2015 is now in 4th place JAXA wise, rapidly gaining ground on recent preceding years even though Hudson and Baffin Bay still have important sea ice coverage. The effects of winter just past cold winds from central RUSSIA to Ohio lingers on. But with temperatures like these: 1-Cambridge (not UK but the real cold Cambridge Canada) 14-15 C maximums for a week 2-Arctic Bay (ikpiarjuaq the beautiful, Northern Baffin) 8-10 C all coming week. 3- Kugluqtuq (the original place of copper for jewellery making) 17-22 C all week. Near Beaufort sea. 4- Tuktuyaktuk (gateway to Beaufort sea) 10 to 17 C all week. 5- Chilly Barrow Alaska 3 to 9 C all week because other side of cyclonic flow bringing Arctic Ocean Air. 6- Murmamsk Northern Russias and Arctic largest city 12 to 23 C for the week 7-Norilsk Central Arctic Russia 18 to 24 C for 7 days 8 Logashkino (East Siberian Sea village) 3 to 9 C…. for more than a week Bye bye coastal sea ice….
LRC, typepad disappears totally for hours.... Check out current remarkable Arctic warm temperatures. THe permanent pack is in for a very rough ride. I should be able to make an early verdict on sea ice minima once Hudson and Baffin Bay is clear along with Foxe Basin. The weak cyclone now present over the Gyre area is of interest. Jim , no surprise about A Murdoch paper recording people, either illegally (hacking scandal) or otherwise, I'd be shocked if they use notepads, apparently recording off the record comments is their speciality. I wonder why people even bother talking to them, given current freedoms to self publish. There is 0 prestige or benefits to be interviewed by slanted journalists, no matter how long the paper existed. Their like minded audience need self reinforcing dribble continuously. Otherwise the readership would vanish completely. AS long as typepad works we can sink any stink they come up with!
Jim, smells like a Murdoch hit job though. This said Dr Wadhams should self publish his opinions on sea ice retreat or to a reputable science or a proper newspaper (a species going extinct I am afraid). Never mind the side show.