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"does that mechanism matter this year when so much open water that can absorb solar irradiation exists? " Tom, Bingo, we are looking at indeed a complex system. If there is very little net long wave radiation escaping upwards from the sea under the ice, which naturally occurs in the spring due to solar input. There is one of 2 things which may happen, if the sea ice is thicker and there is lots of clouds, the ice will survive, but if it is rather more 1st year thin, sea water temperature increase, however apparently small, matters, it warms from its larger underlying thermal heat source even when there is no open water. Add more solar heat because there is more open water in Beaufort - and - elsewhere including the North Atlantic: The result would be a warmer underlying sea making the over all thinner sea ice very vulnerable.
Toggle Commented yesterday on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Neither one or the other, the main pack moves faster because the very ice is warmer,the frozen leads are thinner, they collapse and melt earlier. And of course there is melting of ice in 0 C waters, yet to be industrial scale, but present. Consider these days like early August, which means the minima 45 days away is extended by 60. There is action everywhere of course, Hudson Bay fascinates as always, but ice mobility is not only for the Beaufort Sea, the main Arctic Ocean ice pack spring break occurred about 1 month early, it shows just as well on top of the Greenland Sea:
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
lately ECMWF was far better than GFS for the Arctic, D It failed projecting the Beaufort High on several occasions, unlike European model. Is it because GFS is less holistic? There are places with lot of snow despite record low snow extents. This is why my projection more than a month ago, still holds, ECMWF is more aware than GFS in my estimate. Bravo Europa!
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on ASI 2016 update 1: both sides at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, These clouds are key, but they are definitely not as a pervasive as during normal spring Arctic weather. From my observations, low clouds slow melting substantially, in fact reconsolidates the ice to stand against another sunny onslaught. There is no reason to believe more of them than normal this spring, rather the only thing left is cyclones. They should circulate as normal but stagnate over warmer open sea water.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on Beaufort final update at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Alek, It is good to have focus on a subject, apparently easy, but deeply complex. Good tidings for your further research!
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on Beaufort Gyre guest blog at Arctic Sea Ice
I particularly like the sketched about old and new sea ice with respect to winds. The missing one may be new sea ice, mostly flat, only having "sails" by much lower smaller pressure ridges. This fits with respect to another missing component, the newish counterclockwise gyre driven by persistent lower pressure cyclones during summer and also very lately winter, in effect, creating no gyre at all. There is no circulation, just melting in place ( summer 2013-2014). It is a natural defense against total eradication by compaction. Sea ice onto itself is equally complex, either thin or thick, boundary layers exist, and sometimes boundary layers increase surface interface wind speeds, a particular not so rare occurrence especially during the long night.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on Beaufort Gyre guest blog at Arctic Sea Ice
Must keep in mind Beaufort sea ice had a lot of the thickest ice, some gone before June. Looking near Barrow Alaska: At a much improved Buoy temperature profile. The snow/air top thermistors temps at daily maximum have very close to top of sea ice temperatures. That is more like reality. From shore this would be seen as a diurnal lowering at noon rising at night horizon. I must point out, it is very difficult to measure temperature accurately at different heights, not an easy task especially with different physical mediums, air-snow-ice-sea water, throw in sun radiation and thermistor precision compared to surface ventilated temperatures. Note that the entire thermistor column in Barrow is near -2 C. Ice ready for rapid melt.
Toggle Commented May 22, 2016 on Beaufort final update at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks D, I first think that there is a lot of chemistry going about. Something in your ball park. A few years back it got more interesting, when North Pole scuba divers touched the bottom of 2 meter or so sea ice , an it broke, interesting especially when it was -11 C outside. The high salt content of the freshest newest layer of ice is very high. When there is no negative thermal flux towards space, the sea water temperature gathers more heat otherwise lost, and there is a melting. This said, not very much, because further up in the ice column, the ice is not as salty, requires warmer water to melt, and takes a longer slower process to do so. With no thermal flux, 0, heat gathers from the underlying warmer sea water layer, eventually enough to melt the next salty layer. While the late spring melt ponds on top, do the same process, but again it is slowed but just how much the sea ice core temp is cold. However the earlier it starts the more gets melted. Chemistry of the top, when newly formed sea ice is exceedingly fascinating, because sea ice as you said, is a good insulator, but allows infrared to escape to air. What is mostly captivating is that the thinnest sea ice thermal activity is nearly identical to the thickest, except for amplitude in horizon altitude variations. I believe that the chemistry plays a role, unknown, needing further study.
Toggle Commented May 20, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Very latest news directly from sea ice and air right above looks not promising , from earliest signs of bottom First Melt in early March to likely more than 12 hours bottom melting observed yesterday, the earliest again , never seen in May:
Toggle Commented May 20, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, Sea ice extent super low numbers are simply stunning, even with this writer well experienced and use to surprises, this moment tops them all. Also, for the hard core students: There is likely a calculation or measurement flaw with remote sensing, not that it affects Global Temperature numbers, but highly possible making the famous sea ice models fail.
Toggle Commented May 19, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
It is really bad for Arctic sea ice now, but not as terrible as to say everything will melt this season. We haven't reached the stage when a melt minima consists of a small tide driven pack ice standing against the Canadian Arctic Archipelago shores. This is the major step before it all melts. The precursor is the North Pole clear of any ice for the first time in a very very long time. At this stage, a lot of sea ice has warmed because of a huge Arctic insolation period comprising a considerable Arctic area. During recent not so distant past long nights, a cold winter imprinted deeply within a thick sea ice pack, perpetuating cooling throughout the summer, insuring its survival. We had no large imprint , we have much thinner ice, massive spring big blue sky sun got rid of this past winters weak freezing memory. There is not many doubts about this coming melt. Now the white curtain waits its turn to withdraw at the Pole, we will be looking at millions of years of white, unveiling blue back to an epoch without humans.
Toggle Commented May 17, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Must keep in mind DMI 80 Northwards graphs are based on models. +1 or 2 C surface weather is very warm near the Pole, after reviewing buoy data, it would be a very rare event. +1 or 2 C over the summer is more a near 80 N latitude temperature. Surface temperatures should not vary a great deal with ground or surface laden with snow or ice. 80 N also includes lands easily exceeding 5 C during the summer, and much wider open sea water areas. 85 Northwards data may be of greater sea ice value.
Toggle Commented May 15, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, Exactly, this is why 0 C is not the right number, but only well above 0 is a more certain average which would guaranty a total melt. Historically, DMI daily averages were between 0 and 2 for june july august, obviously a total melt must have higher surface temperatures. However, as a guide, if the 0 C threshold comes very early, it would be a very strong indicator of greater melting to come. Recent years summer melt ponds warming effect may also have been cancelled by open - 1 or -2 C sea water, but a massive calculation requiring extensive data sets may be required to determine the right surface temperature mean. Looking back to 2012 as a a solid reference, the warming was likely the strongest going all the way back to 1998 (with much thicker ice). The 80 Northwards warming at this point in time is warmer than 2012 as well.
Toggle Commented May 15, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have also came up with a newish hypothesis: The temperature of top of sea ice is always colder or equal to to surface air, Proof can be found with remote sensing: Now consider a simple fact, if the average Arctic surface air temperature is much greater than 0 C there should be no sea ice, but there is often a mix of water puddles and sea water, the exact number for surface air temperature needs to be found. Look very carefully at when surface air above 80 N will be above 0: The earlier the daily mean hits the 0 C mark , like 2012: , the better chance there will be no sea ice at the Pole. If the 0 mark is late, so will most sea ice saved for yet another year.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
...when any melt season can turn catastrophic.......
Toggle Commented May 14, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Anyone please correct me if I'm wrong, but this would mean, high altitude moisture content helps/ low altitude hurts. " Low clouds would save the Arctic Ocean pack ice for as long as Arctic Temperatures are not exceedingly high, something like +4 C average during June-July_August would be game over for the pack. Especially with sea water temperatures keeping very near -1 C. Again, if sea water temps also dramatically increase clouds wont matter. This said, a great deal of sea ice is vulnerable to compaction during summer, we are now in the great compaction years, when any melt season turn catastrophic. The potential for such a great melt was likewise since 2007, the variance in extent is largely due to winds and clouds (with sea and air temperatures always important), how they behave over the summer dictates the the size of the minima. I have made my projection: : known, and it is holding quite well. Notice the Gyre High tending to move towards the North Atlantic. But it will be over the Gyre area again soon and then migrate and stay more towards Franz Josef lands . The next week or so will be very bad for ice especially for the Beaufort area.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Taras, It is usually seen by the "big lead" stretching out in day steps all the way from Banks Island to Greenland for the first time. As just occurred, I didn't keep a record of them, but late May was way early in the 90's, usually sometimes in June. This year is very early indeed. The "big lead" opening up was known in the early 1900's and established early March as the time to sledge to the Pole ever since.
Toggle Commented May 12, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Taras That is "Spring Break" when the entire pack starts moving in unison clockwise. This usually happens end of May beginning of June.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Ice free? Not a chance. A continuous slow decline yes.. There is the problem of extra clouds generated by stable cyclones settling over open water mixed with non compacting sea ice . 2013 had a great melt, even though it did not look like it.
Bob Sea ice projections incorporates many factors, its not easy to do, especially impossible without effort. Making predictions is a scientific tool to gather insight. It does not mean anyones reputation will end when the projection fails. Nor does a group consensus forecast failure has meaning on the persons involved. It is an essential method which helps confirm whether or not the subject is understood. Then again, failure redoubles the study of why it did not happen as thought. When people predict things from a political stance, in line with bad science, WUWT style, then it needs not be appreciated nor commented on. If there is a melt season prone to overtake 2012, it is this year, I would be very surprised if it does not happen. On a scale of 1 to 10 surprised I would take 8. This said, the biggest slow down possible of what is potentially the largest melt ever, may only come from steady cyclones at about the the Pole, like 2013. I do not see this happen because we are trending LaNina very very similar to 2007, a bit like 2011, more than a little like 2012 which had a small El-Nino which blitzed very quickly to LaNina during summer. 2015 El-Nino peak was so massive that it can only mean less clouds when exhausted. A history record breaking El-Nino can only mean one thing, less sea ice. After all, 1998 was the beginning of the great recent decline in sea ice extent. But there is still a possibility of a cloud stall. 2010 is the only outlier to an otherwise stellar model of prediction, primarily unlike now, because it was cloudier during the spring. I had 3 times more sun observations taken this present year compared to the same April date in 2010. Iceland volcano Eyjafjallajokull eruptions might have contributed to this. For 2016 a cloud stall driven by cyclones is a matter of timing, If a great part of the Arctic Ocean opens earlier, cyclones may move in just as quickly. But there are, at this time, no significant cloud formations as usually blossoming at this time of year. This implies a slight lack of cloud seeding on a greater planetary scale.
A continuation of my recent work likely pinpoints a possible error in Remote Sensing temperature data, In effect comparing what is observed optically, with rather sophisticated platforms. On the whole, the satellites gather good average temperatures, but may not do so at every top of sea ice location daily,
Not imagination John, If you travelled on this ice, leads are commonly made every day, but not refreezing or closing , as seen from space, is a sign of summer.
Hi D, Is like living in the desert except the sand is frozen water, never ending blue skies, worse than 2008. Surface temperatures are more than 7 C above average, soon to be 12 C above. This is not good for Greenland. Sea ice is colder than this progression in surface temperatures, it lags behind, being a heat sink during the day and a big mirage maker during the midnight sun. There is some fog, but it is fleeting, the air is too dry by a few percentage points, just enough to make the fog vanish.
Toggle Commented May 4, 2016 on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
oops Jim did u check amazing discovery about 2015l thermistor this time I suspect it fully functional within correct specifications.
Toggle Commented May 3, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The most amazing now event is of course the Beaufort Gyre persistent Anticyclone, perhaps going on 10 weeks, I lost count, picked up lots of data though, just like 2008 its been sunny every day except for one or two near huge cyclone encroachment. I deal with this now event and its future course :
Toggle Commented May 3, 2016 on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice