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Thanks RealityBytes and L. Hamilton. As far as we know for ASI to melt completely, at least at this stage of Global Temperatures, dynamical weather must "cooperate", i.e. very cloudy Arctic winter, and relatively clear summer weather with nearly constant hovering anticyclones over the Arctic ocean Gyre area, favouring huge insolation and compaction. If the current prediction does not recognize that sea ice melt is highly susceptible to dynamical meteorology, I doubt its a projection based on current prognosis of the cryosphere. This said , dynamical weather of before 1990, did not do much to alter the massive presence of thick sea ice. The state of the cryosphere is now dependent on weather conditions -the dynamical meteorology period- , state of affairs not directly proportional to Global Temperatures yet, but close to it. Runaway albedo feedback requires a certain seasonal cloud coverage variations at this point, but there will be a time when clouds won't form as easily when GT's will be too warm. There is also a new player on the block, strong and lingering summer cyclones, they introduce cloudier and ironically colder weather by their very anti insolation nature, along with stopping or reversing the Gyre. When the North Pole becomes ice free regularly, its the start of a new era, when GT's would be more and more influential, to the point leaving behind dynamical meteorology, just as it was in the times when ice was very thick and expansive, the more open Arctic Ocean will likely not be changed much by weather.
Hi Chris, well said, anyone here avoid Ostepop unless you have lots of time to waste. Or a contrarian flag should appear every time he posts. That is a suggestion well worth considering.
John, I think in similar ways, however AO is way to large in size. The jet stream is a creature of contrasting atmospheric densities. Many describe it as the causation, but is merely formed at the junction of cold and warmer air. Namely, the jet stream happens to be a symptom of geo-density dynamics. Therefore is not the cause of extreme weather, but rather an indicator of weather patterns. In this warming world, the jet stream will become more prevalent where it was not. Because there is less cold air, and with smaller cold air masses a more pronounced or irregular stream should prevail.
Hi NeilT, "In fact it was earlier than 2004. It would have been nice to know whether it was insolation or some other factor." Well this is indeed a very interesting subject. Barrow was kept open mainly by NW winds and a winter without great snowfall, a dry winter, snow usually helps the formation of sea ice. By the very mega-system heat engine covering 2 continents, cooling North American Eastern coast, during past winter, which effects are still felt if you go for a swim in any lake, particularly the great lakes brrrrrr. Interesting to note, that much cooling in some region of the world does not equate any global freeze,, and may even give more open sea water!
Very nice to read you back John, Yes, sea ice is very hard to predict, but none of the gentlemen or group you cited are openly advocating stupid predictions, like sea ice is recovering, up coming ice age etc. I personally focus on the North Pole, truly the gateway event for Arctic Ocean becoming eventually ice free. This said, all who predict wrong must re-evaluate their understanding of the physics of Arctic sea ice. It is easy to predict anything, being correct should merit respect, especially if one is being correct many times. With respect to ASI over the main pack, I have changed my techniques to project, because I was wrong, it is essential to admit failure, this way I can find a better method. Remember we are dealing with a subject with threshold limits of days, i.e. make the summer longer by 2 weeks, and 2014 and 2013 would have been just as bad as 2012. It is the evaluation of how much "cold" the sea ice was at maxima which matters, but not uniquely. So far this season offers no great expectation of Arctic Ocean being totally ice free, again its the Pole which matters, there is no doubt this year is similar to great melt seasons. In as much as one strong Cyclone or two, lingering over the Gyre may disrupt a melting trend quite a lot, and this has nothing to do with cooling, So in recent years we have learned met dynamical impacts are very important with respect to ASI. And we are nowhere near a totally free ASI season, but there is no sign of true cooling, which is what matters most. AS far as the guys you cited, they should admit failure, and especially why they think they failed, otherwise they are not practicing science. If willing to predict, one must show the reasoning behind before, during and after the event has passed.
There will be another Anticyclone blitz soon, making the Wrangle an Island again, R.I.P. 'annoying Cincinnatus' prediction or rather bragging at the time when he reasoned nothing about less spring sea ice in Bering Strait. If we only had a list of contrarian prediction failures, no one would bother reading them. That is indeed the problem with freedom of speech, not enough people participate, and not enough people keep tabs on predictions people make. Therefore a fake skeptic has more than 9 lives, and may reappear to irk or destroy really interesting discussions. NW passage looks apt for early opening, earlier than NE, just like some guy wrote :) .
Indeed Jim, but to be more specific Global Temperatures variations are due to dynamical meteorology. Of which our greatest latest example in Arctic sea ice was 2013. When our not so bright fake skeptics, ie mainly annoying self proclaimed "pending next ice age" experts, decried sea ice recovery and as it was written "It got colder.....", all the while it really was cloudier by multiple Cyclonic incursions over the Arctic Ocean. The warming factor was still there, it morphed into these incursions which as some may know, were higher energy events, warming symptoms may not be measured only with thermometers. And so from fall 2013 there was an apparent "lull" in sea ice melting, only to be obviously a clever trick by nature to make contrarians look silly.
There is nothing in science like repetition, the horizon shifts in High Arctic Canada were captured many many times near Highest latitude point of USA: Barrow Alaska... You can study it in great details thanks to University of Alaska Archives.
Chris, well deduced indeed, I can see why they are somewhat faulty, but you have mentally figured it out. Very likely heat traveling up and down the thermistor pipe, this also goes during the dark season. Optical observations, fewer because of darkness, but numerous enough, have never confirmed a deep horizon adiabatic profile. There was always a raised horizon implicating strong Long Wave originating from the sea penetrating thinner ice. Warm air advection may make the top of ice/snow warmer, and there can be very shallow adiabatic profiles, but none high enough to be seen. I still think buoys give us good sonar data and surface temperatures. But thermistor string temps are hard to know when accurate. There should be very little temperature difference between top of snow to surface temperatures, that is the only thing I go by to judge if the data may be probably acceptable.
Bill, I was not my conclusion, but from the paper linked by Jim. It remains wise to be skeptical of some of the MB temperature data, and especially know its limitations more.
Bill and Chris, Interesting comments. You must start with the premise that the thermistor string helps melting sea ice faster. And work on the reason from there. I would use a material or no material, but first a material equal to SH of ice. Different plastics have various SH. As far as conductance is concerned it depends whether the string pipe is filled with material or hollow with air. Either way need be studied. Ideally the instrument should not affect the medium it measures. Camera 2015A must focus at open water hole (may be there is one) to see if it is river water or tidal flows which is bringing about already very much warmed up near by sst's.
Thanks Jim, Is a familiar problem but instead of snow , ice., water or air its plastic: "For comparison, a thermistor string of the same design used in the IMBs, also deployed in a ponded area, melted out even sooner (g)," What appears to be faster melt caused by the instrument may be explained by the material used, plastic, or PVC which has half the heat capacity of ice or snow. This means for every joule of kinetic energy about this material would gain temperature twice as fast. Now I think that refraction method supersedes buoy thermistors in "absolute" quality by several levels of magnitude. 1) Sea ice naturally reflects light, but during mid to late spring, top of it is usually colder than air, this implies an immediate above ice surface air inversion. Which is nullified with sun rays, but not enough to cause a "road mirage" , like a paved surface, in fact sun rays SW warm the ice column (which in turn affects the thermal balance throughout the ice which if strong enough causes it to melt at bottom), so a very near air isotherm is created until the sun lowers to a critical point when the inversion returns immediately. This critical point is dynamic and depends on how long sun rays have bombarded the ice. 2- In darkness of the long night when sun is completely removed, my next subject to write about, there seems to be nothing but above ice/snow surface inversions unless there is cold air advection, which is relatively infrequent, so top of sea ice thermistors must record more often than not inversions during the dark season. I have never recorded a pure isotherm horizon during the dark season yet, like when its sunny at noon during spring. This suggests that LW radiation from the sea overwhelms even cold air advection and thickening ice to the point where surface adiabats should be rare or possibly improbable. At least for now -yet to be observed-
Jim, Kevin Thanks but I am looking for how the thermistors are installed.. On a simple wire string? Or from what it seems, in a vertical plastic tube , where as at installation water fills a vertical pipe and freezes thereafter. The schematic was nice but was for O' buoy's.
Does anyone have a schematic of string thermistors as installed with current mass buoys?
JIm, I hope they plan to come back with kayaks as well, since pilots may refuse to land at the Pole if the ice is too thin. In the recent past, NP pick ups were always preferred on multi-year pans, now is only Borneo. The reason for thick ice make-shift runways may be understood by the DeHavilland plane which sank at the Pole when it landed on First year ice in the 80's. So one day, someone will film a plane at the bottom of ocean very near a Russian flag.
Returning to 2015A in fog brings out reality, with top 5 shielded by cloud thermistors measured an inversion a 260800 and 261200. Note the small temperature differences especially with the surface reading, this small difference is enough to raise the horizon. Buoy thermistors readings in the sun become very suspect when the temperature differences between surface measurement and above ice string thermistors are very large. But the visual observation is prime and is not affected by instrumentation artifacts. This is why its important to be as correct as possible when verifying with models. On a sunny day, if top string thermistors did not have solar induced artifacts they would measure very close to an isothermal profile as observed when the sun is high enough. When the sun lowers to midnight an inversion is created because the ice is colder than the air. This is not quite the same as air being cooled by land in the morning after night time at Southern latitudes. The ice cools the air at first chance it gets. For those who drive on a hot summer day right after twilight on a highway, you can still see road mirages by distant car red back lights doubling on pavement, if the road was ice, it would not be seen likewise, the red lights would be raised without cognizance.
Jim , correct I couldn't reconcile the thermistors data with sonar for the longest time. I suppose they decide thickness by sonar rather temperatures. However In A's case consider the top point where the ice was just below zero at 08:00 UTC which is thermistor 6, and thermistor 22 where -1.8 C has been recorded likely the bottom. Which was not always the bottom warmest thermistor of record, most times is thermistor 19. I think the bottom is messed up, although we need a visual confirmation, its the the time when krill must work harder to get din din. Yes Bill, Brasi buoy is more apt!
And here you have it, 2015A will swim with the fishes soon, if its loss of 30 cm at bottom, from 05/23/2015 20:00 to 05/24 04:00 UTC, was accurate. At about 1 C outside temperature not much more. The rot at bottom makes it so, for quite a while the bottom melted and refroze, a process that can be seen if you drill through the ice. The continuous phase changes created mushy soft ice boom layers likely more porous, where micro-creatures hide from krill. The tides played a role as well with likely warmer water moved in. I think the speed of sea ice melt is set in no small part by pre-existing conditions, which are not favorable for sea ice to last when insolation spans long periods.
I offer this article: to the hard working sea ice model physicists in particular to check if their temperatures profiles match what is observed by the refraction method. I have not seen any similar figures in the literature. I would useful to see one for verification purposes...
Jim, was wondering if you can pin point exact location of snow and ice interface, as well as water and ice interface given that official buoy ice depths are somewhat difficult to reconcile with official thicknesses, especially with respect to "A" and "D"....
Neven , I would have defined the cooling, but otherwise a very good synopsis. My yearly projection of a month ago is on track, and I don't see anything breaking the momentum already in place. Every season has different features, this one had a cold Arctic North American start driven all winter by a pan continental heat engine, in its wake is drier air because it snowed less and the Pacific is unusually warm causing a greater temperature dew point spread. There is more potential insolation in polar regions summers compared to anywhere else ascalculated by Tamino: With less clouds there is automatically warmer temperatures and a greater melt.
2015A @ 0800 UTC shows definitely signs of water, even Polar bear tracks show top of ice water mixed with snow... The key for thermistors is to read them as much as possible at the lowest sun position.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Thin sea ice, however trivialized, has one important feature, it can almost give the same thermal profile as with older ice: But for different reasons. I guess my dissertation explains why recent winters can be just as cold although short lived. But for the greater part a refreeze after a minima of 0 extent may not mean the planet would warm much faster instantly, at least for the first few years.
Toggle Commented May 17, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim , very helpful CRRL person to acknowledge this flaw. Which brings up a question if top of inside ice thermistors may be equally affected with very little snow on surface? Perhaps much less affected but warmed nevertheless. Reading night time data confirms refraction method where there is always an inversion even when cloudy. So for people here studying sensible thermal fluxes, 08 to 12Z readings are best where you can realize there is practically always an inversion which likely means ice formation at bottom. When surface temperature is equal to op of ice, melting takes place at bottom along with latent heat warming of the ice column. There are complexities here amongst these complications. Refreezing of bottom releases heat which should add to the ice column warming. The ice column warms gradually day by day depending on cloud coverage (precluding above 0 C heat waves). The Arctic always has huge cloud cover from April to about July, once removed there is a great melt no matter how thick the ice is. This melt season has had very little fog , now is the time when fog kicks in from ice fog laced with ice crystals. But a few % less RH will make sea ice much more vulnerable.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, The Gyre is in full in synergy with a stable anticyclone pushing along ice in its normal course, since Banks and Victoria is land, water shows in wake of the circulation about the Beaufort area. The sat pics also look "dry" for this time of the year, there is a lack of fog, which is an indication of heat making temperature to dew point spread too wide. Its by far starting period melt with the most warming inertia closely looking like 2012 and 2010 even though general circulation is similar o 2007.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice