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I am still skeptical about PIOMAS being well adjusted with other sources of ice thickness or volume. If you look at their graph: 2013 January had less sea ice than 2016 early February. now compare with US Navy sea ice thickness: February 8,2016 appears to have significantly less over all sea ice thickness than same date 2013. and yes winter 15-16 is finally growing after many interruptions, But it will not be so big and fierce by the greatest interruptor of them all, the sun.
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS February 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
It is very hard to visualize why PIOMAS makes the ice so much thicker than it should be. I have also confirmed US NAVY Ice thickness chart depiction of our small part of the Arctic world with the horizon refraction method. World wide temperature average for the year 2015 was simply significantly higher than the year just past. This was not reflected in sea ice extent as the graph presented above demonstrates. Sea ice extent is very susceptible to dynamical weather, but the long term downward trend seen above is undeniable. However sea ice volume may not be as PIOMAS estimates. My recent observations in darkness have confirmed a remarkable drop in sea ice thickness over a wide area. I'll have more about this at week end.
Hi Jim, David Rose career is doomed, but fortunately not with Boss Murdoch. However, he can't distinguish between El-Nino 97-98 with more sea ice than El-Nino 15-16! Such a rudimentary mistake should make hard core denialists avoid the subject all together. There are some other larger differences between the said El-Ninos, one is found in Global Circulations. The 2 El-Ninos in question say are identical in thermal strength, why is Global Circulation so different? Most people reading this blog here know why. We should redirect Mail On Sunday readers here as a measure to be well informed . Dealing with facts or reality is far more interesting than misdirected pseudo science fantasies. But attacking scientific search for truth is popular. Now I know, the only reason why people read contrarians is because their stance is interesting like Basil Fawlty, its fun to watch a delusional rant.
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wow, we are now in the middle of the 4th heat surge since the onset of the long Arctic night. This from cyclones from the Pacific heading towards the Pole. Literally Making North America warmer than Eastern Russia. Wait a few days for Southern Canada and Northern USA records to be broken all over the place again. Next sea ice maxima seems certainly for all time low extent record as well, but Siberia needs to be watched before making this pronouncement. Piomas seems off, the penetration of cyclones Polewards tend to suggest over all thinner ice.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
This warming at the North Pole may be unprecedented or the beginning of new circulation patterns to come: It is definitely remarkable, all specialists take note.
I concur Aaron "Greenland as the Northern Cold Pole" especially during summer. Without the usual North Pacific Cold center Northern Siberia makes it possible for continuous intrusions of North Atlantic cyclones as is happening now. This is also the 3rd time the weighted Arctic Ocean cold temperature air mass has shrunk since beginning of 2015 long night. The current shrink being the most intense I have ever seen. More in 3 days when NOAA has some processed data.
There is definitely more snowfall from all these Cyclonic system penetrations of the once power house of winter which was the Arctic Ocean. But this is not the biggest underlying story, it is the vast reduction of winter extent which matters, and has a certain feedback effect causing further warming incursions. Sea ice wise, more snow tricks the sensors in misjudging how much sea ice extent there is. I have learned that Cryosphere folks can't distinguish between snow semi immersed on the sea surface and sea ice. There is also more snow, which automatically increases insulation over existing sea ice, this means less accretion not more. Finally over Cryo lands more snow thickness means again extra layer keeping the grounds warmer. This means an earlier spring warming. All ansd all does not look good for sea ice with respect to next year minima, especially and foremost its cloudier from a soon to be equal to 1998 El-Nino, if El-nino peaked over the summer that would have been more favorable, but it looks like El- Nino is peaking now, bad presage, if La-Nina kicks in coming late spring 2016, all records will shatter.
Neven , I think our work is never finished, as soon as we rest during the festive season, the met TV presenters get to blame these days of huge world wide record shattering temperature records on El-Nino. They certainly don't know what they are talking about, and so mislead the larger population as usual, creating the right kind of background for any misinformer to have fun with their adventures of muddling reality. Happy NEW YEAR guys, it is the true new year at solstice. Merry Christmas (although should be during the usual Roman Empire census in March!) :)
Toggle Commented Dec 22, 2015 on Winter solstice at Arctic Sea Ice
yes AO is + now all while NE North America is having all time record warm temperatures shattered. Currently the Arctic has an important Anticyclone over the Gyre of the Arctic Ocean not really text book conforming...... AO+ should mean a Low pressure over the Arctic Ocean: A negative phase should have a High near the Pole. It covers too huge a Northern Hemisphere area to simplify matters in finer details. There may be some factual correlations, but not so significant locally, until they reduce the Arctic Oscillation to the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Dec 13, 2015 on PIOMAS December 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
First of all, congrats on all , especially Greek Austrian journalist Neven on COP21 agreement. It is very refreshing to witness all countries of the world together as one deciding to do something. There is much more optimism on Earth than the over published negativity from most medias. It took thousands of human-years effort to kill the bullshit ignorance spewed by money driven pollution-pays industrial complex, To all those who fought with pen and mind, I salute you! Now, AO+ is meaningless by its geographical size. What matters for the Arctic is far more intimate, and requires a great deal of observations. Since sea ice maxima there was an onslaught of heat and moisture, which introduced a great deal of snow to the Arctic. Snowfall increases dramatically sea ice extent, imagine drifting snow from the pack hitting open sea water, the snow landing on -2 C water is extremely colder, -30 C snow grains hits the much warmer sea. It does not melt on impact, it floats or stays slightly submerged, this completely changes the thermal physics of the open sea surface. Water waves are muted. Underwater convection breaks. Ice forms quickly. Utterly different holistic weather scenario than last year at the same time period is occurring. Last year had a dry December. This lack of snow affected the weather systems for the entire Northern Hemisphere. There was steady mega cyclone Heat machine complex. On left side cold, on the right warm. This is not the case now. Everything is in flux, driven by a much warmer beginning of winter, there has been huge heat influxes reducing the extent of winter in a mere few days in total darkness. The lower surface to air interface is astoundingly adiabatic, the extra snow layer denies inversions from taking shape , the very essence of winter. Last year the ground was largely bare, and this was responsible for the colder start of winter especially over North America. Will have more on this in a bit. Mean time cheers to ye who fought for Earth, our only lovely home.
Toggle Commented Dec 12, 2015 on PIOMAS December 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, Visualize this: no stable Highs over the much weakened Arctic Ocean pack until the pack freezes solid. Sorry I can't describe Denmarks High origin because I did not study it , but I can do the Arctic . It is a great weakness of most who use AO's to describe things, it does not explain anything but vague generalities, without knowing the source reason. So picture this: Arctic Ocean loose pack with warm water "invites" Lows to penetrate the pack surface area until its cold enough by darkness, in the case of 2015 the water was much warmer, the sea ice much weakened, the pack consolidated much later. Once a near North Pole large patch of consolidated pack can acquire much colder air than surrounding areas, its denser surface air flows Southwards, Coriolis effect makes it flowing towards warmer air turn Right, voila : anticyclone-genesis. Don't you like knowing why there is a High pressure rather than describing that it is there? Work on understanding the reasons why AO is + or -, then you will know when winter starts!
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, I am as clear as it gets especially if you go to the link presented. Sea ice Consolidation is confirmed when Highs subsist at about the Pole especially at this time of the year. Previous Heat sources were multiple as you cited just one, they've delayed the onset of winter. You must visualize the reflection of a solid consolidated pack twinned with very clear and cold air right above it. If you can't see it you wont understand. You must look at the image without complicating it with causations. The capitals used is to emphasize the lateness of consolidation and clear air (that was obvious wasn't it? Or shall I use colour characters :) )....
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
John: "So I am speculating that sea ice right now is primarily generated deeper within the ice pack and then as leads freeze over and the central pack increases in thickness, the ice pack spreads from the center (Either by the increase in ice thickness or by winds moving it into areas of open water) rather than growing at the edges." Not bad, but once the main pack is strongly consolidated frozen as it is ONE MONTH LATE now, drifting snow spreads outwards and basically is a precursor to more freezing at its outwards limits, likely because sea water convection is stopped. The present anticyclone over the pack is very late: A sure sign of a coming mild winter for most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Toggle Commented Oct 13, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
A double Polar atmospheric squeeze, one typhoon and one hurricane heading North Polewards will enhance an anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean gyre next weekend. Likely another drop in extent again in the cards if ECMWF plays it right.
Toggle Commented Oct 4, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
A new weather game is a foot, where instead of having a massive High at about the North Pole, there is a massive very large pan-Arctic Low, the result: a shrinking, yes reduction in extent again way pass the minimum. From 5069941 to 5053825 Km2 since yesterday. Amazing and expected, the state of the ice, as portrayed above, is very poor, and vulnerable even though it should expand and solidify. 2016 is already shaping up to be a severe melt regardless of lack of compaction.
Toggle Commented Oct 3, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
True Melting of sea ice extent or volume is at present directly muddled by compaction, consider 2006 volume drop as compared to 2007, a well known Arctic dipole melt event. Consider removing this dipole event and imagine what sea ice would be like at 2007 minimum. Those who suggest that there is sea ice recovery from 2012 must factor in compaction effects before effectively declaring a cooling and therefore recovery. 2013 was declared a recovery year ad nauseam without considering that 2013 had practically no dipole. Comparing sea ice melts must also consider physical dynamics.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
"So the news is that dark streaks on the surface of Mars have been analysed and are showing evidence of having been created by salty water. Clearly the next question is how much water lies under the surface of Mars?" Its a busy news day for all things cold, Water on Mars amongst other headlines (where it gets really cold), I find NASA's finds compelling but not quite live: There is a way to find water on Mars, and its in permafrost, something we know very well here on Neven's blog. So if there is permafrost the distant horizon altitude would change for no apparent reason, especially when daily temperatures change so dramatically. Here on Earth, I can "see" the ice under rocks, because surface rocks warm up fast in the sun, but the colder permafrost just below would cool down the surface layer fast at sunset, allowing a gradual horizon boost to be visible. If there was a great Martian ocean, there should be a lot of permafrost, of which detecting the water is made easier, even though the atmosphere there is thinner than Earth, the daily temperature variances are huge, this should make it possible to detect the presence of water on Mars.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, Physical Reality is yesterday the sea ice extent JAXA day 26 4,758,781 day 27 4,737,804 mn2. 20,000 km2 less some 10 or 20 days after minimum (depending on which official statement), after I said it would be possible. And Ships logs as you cited largely confirm the areas ice conditions we've seen on sat pictures. The physics which did not happen was a strong compaction process over the melting season. Which entails more insolation and therefore a larger apparent melt. We must consider compaction much more significantly making pronouncements about the state of sea ice. I would like to see a model which would calculate the true melt of each season while removing compaction process.
Toggle Commented Sep 27, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, "But of course, if in principle you could pile all ice in one huge heap, then any area record would be broken.. " : Ridging For those who don't know, here is some of the rest: Compaction like 2007 occurs over the entire melting season by what is called Arctic Dipoles. Ice otherwise spread out broken in different phases of thickness or melting compact in favorable synergistic weather conditions, the process exacerbates the over all melting significantly once water is exposed to insolation. The first figure above show a significant extent of 2015 sea ice not compacted spread about mixed with water but likely counting as 100% coverage. The other thing not presented is the rest of the pack appearing 100% snow white, but in various stages of melt, with thinner mixed with thicker ice with leads which is easily compactable given the right conditions. But this did not happen extensively. All things considered, there has been no recovery since 2007, just sea ice self defense posturing, by spreading itself thanks to the new order of weather establishing itself in the Arctic. This albedo stance has its limits as 2015 has showed. In particular the lack of consolidation is revealed by the lack of anticycllones over the main pack at this time. No super anticyclone cooling of the Arctic will make the ice thinner for the next season.
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, Your first figure shows 2012 minima looks almost the same as 2015, but there were different paths leading up to nearly similar final results. With more compaction, 2015 would have easily beaten 2012. We are in a new kind of melt/circulation geophysics meteorological dynamics, changing in newer ways year by year. It is very difficult task to project exactly especially when the ice morphs to newer configurations faster than the sum of our experience can reveal.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John , "The AO index has only been positive for the past 5-6 days, and is forecast to turn negative in the next couple of days:" THe AO area or boundaries are vast well beyond the Arctic, for that reason it has meaning for something else than just the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
John, The only source for Arctic High Pressures is Greenland at present. The presence of continuous Cyclones at about the Pole does the reverse of compaction, and masks the real damage going about, this seems to be the way sea ice will vanish, the Pack will shrink year to year, highly similar to Global Temperature trends, in steps, like you sometimes suggest. I don't see compaction wiping out sea ice completely in one season anymore. If a High remains during summer over Greenland, as what last summer suggests, the sea ice pack will spread out along with Cyclone action countering any strong compaction especially like summer 2007. Its Arctic Sea Ice last stand. Amazing projection sketch of mine came through just now, 5 months later than drawn. The power of crayons outmatch the best computer models because the artist had sea ice in mind: Those who forget the Arctic have a serious projection precision problem when it comes to long range work, I gave a few examples.
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
Not so fast with the rebound , as per Jaxa today, a mere +577 km2, I wont be surprised if ice extent shrinks again because sst and st conditions are very warm and cloudy everywhere in the Arctic These unknown warm times may necessarily not have the usual seasonal ice accretion for vast areas in particular with respect to normal sea ice extent. Present unstable weather , triggered by lesser sea ice, fosters more stable open water. The opposite, is good for large Highs creating cloud free mega areas very good for cooling our planet. Present Arctic sea ice in the main pack may not be very consolidated because I have not seen the regular onset of low sun massive anticyclone genesis yet. Surprises are bound to happen. Sea surface temperatures , particularly coming from the main pack is 0 to +1 C in the Central Canadian Archipelago. Beaufort has +4 to +5 C stt's, wow...
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2015 on Minimum and MYI at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin, " today's sharp drop looks a tad suspicious" not in the least bit! Like deep throat said but with a met twist "follow the weather" the Gyre is normal for a while.......
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice