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There is no reason to be optimistic, increased cyclonic activity is a sign of more open water, it would be 2013 melt "ground hog day" all over again, except for much warmer sea surface temperatures, warmer ice core temperatures, thinner ice, a stubbornly strong Beaufort Gyre despite contrarian winds, less ice in Barents ad Greenland sea. Using Beaufort sea as an example, there is a twin complex, influx of heat from the warming Northern Pacific ( I expected this to be a bit slower), along with a long warmed Beaufort sea doesn't necessitate compaction to destroy sea ice: Looking at 2013 June 29 same date we clearly observe lots of ice near 100% covering Beaufort, substantial extent on Barents. The current ice field is substantially like 2012, this naturally implies weather likewise, sea ice influences weather, its cooler near the Pole now because of the cyclonic clouds, the last thing which can spare a disaster, but the ice field will ultimately cast 2013 like weather asunder. Lets go back to 2007: Sea ice June 29 2007 was substantially more consolidated and extensive, yet 2007 was a great minima end of September. The ice field triggered a July Arctic Dipole. I didn't expect this for this year, rather a dipole more with a High near the Pole and lower pressure over Beaufort. I still think there is potential for this to happen. at least in July. The heat to melt sea ice always comes from the South, insolation melts sea ice as well, but near the Pole it rather softens the ice warmer leaving it vulnerable to open water. Its 2102 all over again, until something more dramatic occurs.
Toggle Commented 3 hours ago on ASI 2016 update 3: crunch time at Arctic Sea Ice
leið til að fara Norse! Near North Pole current Ice condition, between a rock frozen ice and a cloudy cooler place. as the title says, this year brings out our knowledge gained especially by 2013 melt. Insolation is key now, and the sun has less trouble to do its thing in 2016. But sea ice is never linear, never easy and always interesting.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, "It seems like this did not happen", The cloud burst happened, this is not related to the Cyclones hugging newly open water. The Anticyclones have indeed tried to settle and form but the Cyclones keep interrupting, look at ECMWF latest forecast where we can see a High or ridge forming near the Pole 5 out of 11 times , but it is pestered by small or larger Cyclones, wait a bit when temperature differentials will become greater by the warming in the open water zones. Let's see if there is anything else left of the pack capable of cooling things, so far the weaker Anticyclones or High pressure ridges vicinity North Pole have revealed a badly broken pack, more so than I anticipated. It is possible that we are witnessing the continuance of a different dynamical weather situation which is related to state of sea ice, much rater than the impossibly vague -not dedicated to the Arctic- AO index designed for Mid North America weather forecasts. Rob Indeed there is "memory" in the Gyre as proven by my GIF display of NASA EOSDIS excellent data base: And it seems impossibly stubborn. But remember the under water sea ice ridging is probably greater than the surface, and of course the density of sea water is much greater than air.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Robert, Nope, look carefully, compare Boothia Peninsula to Somerset Island just to the North. Also look at: The snow over Somerset is confirmed. There was a great deal of snowfall over some parts of the CAA over winter just past.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice Despite winds not conducive to compaction, the Beaufort Gyre turned clockwise throughout June, this is an amazing feature making some meteorologist scratch their heads. Only explainable by months of Gyre anticyclonic wind circulation just prior during March, April and through a good chunk of May.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Navegante, Please check EOSDIS photos for lands featuring lots of snow....,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-06-26&v=-1904071.111111111,-1126912,-234951.111111111,-382464
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Ingen, nein , niet, no,oxi The next few days North Pole will get hit by sun blast of its highest altitude for days. The perimeter of the main pack has always been bombarded with more sun from less cloud cover. Wait a bit and by the way, the models have problems with calculating surface temperatures accurately over sea ice along with alas now extinct mass buoys live data thermistors having water over them when sunny.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Not surprising at all, given any compaction would tumble down the numbers + last ice core measurement at 82N was very warm perhaps warmest at same date. I've observed Greenland sea ice huge areas vanish along with everywhere else too bad Cryosphere Today data is mush. The main pack has already shattered, heat gained from open water especially now a days will prove further disastrous.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
I consider 2016 Gyre having a great deal of momentum as well, there was a great spin of the current for months during late winter early spring, any relapse in contrarian winds should make the beast turn clockwise, not strongly but enough for mini compactions.
Toggle Commented Jun 19, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John and Chris "If PIOMAS follows the behaviour of DMI Cice, this year's spring melt looks likely not to to be very strong." Wrong wrong, 2015f core ice warmed to -2.2 C, + .4 C in one week, compared same date similar position buoy +.3 ahead of 2013. Despite a single buoy, thank goodness for those placing it there! This is a hugely significant turn of events. For a good chunk of the pack to melt, core temps must be very warm, warmest, especially if Dipole compaction is on the fritz. If best thing for sea ice to survive occurs -a complete gyre stall with great cloud cover - the only thing left is heat tho do the job. And we know, there is more heat -in air and ocean- than 2013, logically despite best geophysics feature to preserve from now on, 2016 will race with 2012 throughout the summer. But clouds are not so prominent yet.
Toggle Commented Jun 19, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
The Titanic was an unexpected disaster, I foresaw less sea ice than 2012 minima, quite on track, despite munching open water Cyclones, which are the latest fashion in a degrading sea ice kingdom. They are a bit underwhelmed by a much warmed Arctic. The days of Ice demolition by compaction also may be over, after all for an Arctic dipole to exist, there is a need for a warm and cold zone. What we are left with are weaker anticyclones driven towards Greenland, the last place for Cold. As a result it is mostly warming which slowly and less dramatically (for now) warm the pack for the August onslaught.
Toggle Commented Jun 19, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
More more more! model displays are very much wanted. I'd like to see sea ice animation sequence for the entire summer, and coming years. I don't know about the details for the displays above, but suspect it is based in part with satellite data. If so, it will likely fail capturing the melt ponds below snow cover in the regions with more snow depth. And there is a lot of it Perhaps over all extent is less but in some regions its not area which matters, but depth. I note with great interest the melt ponds in Kara are where there was less snow fall during winter just past.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Buoy 2015f, the one and only one operational, average ice core temperature is -2.4 C, not including crazy top thermistor readings, a gain of .4 C in one week. In 10 days a great chunk of bottom ice, already rotten, will melt. This compares same date and time to 2012G equally at 82 N in 2013, -2.8 C. 2013 season is a text book year of ice melting in place with very little compaction.
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
AbbottisGone, " the best predictor of climate change for the insurance companies, or others with, heart-felt responsibility, even?" It is, but unfortunately there is a lot of ignorance about the Polar regions. Essentially, all frequent participants and readers here are very well informed, Neven does exemplary journalism work . However, I doubt we can convince anybody about this critical subject until a larger common Mediterranean yatch visits the North Pole for the weekend.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Edward Lorenz butterfly is dwarfed almost infinitum by how much sea ice there is or isn't. Yes, General Circulation is never easy, this makes sea ice the ultimate challenge to understand.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
John Sea ice extent is the trickiest geophysical feature to predict, because it can be severely compacted or scattered. Volume should be easier but Piomas has a great deal of trouble with it. I made it easier for myself: "The potential for the North Pole to be sea ice free at Minima coming mid September has never been higher. Arctic sea ice extent will be smaller than all time lowest record of 2012." Written 2 months ago: I find General Circulation Predictions a walk in the park compared to the very complex nature of not so simple sea ice.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Sea ice offers a lot of illusions, literally and optically, one of the current one is extent melt has slowed, not so at all: Look at bottom of '2nd front' Article Consolidation is lost, the ice is more spread out, this causes many things to change, including DMI N80 temperature, because sea ice surface air is automatically colder than sea water surface air. Clouds have appeared more as well, along with a completely almost virtually ignored spring cloud/ice crystals/fog bromide blitz. These vast expansive low clouds favour Cyclones to linger. But bromide events dwell mainly in colder weather, therefore the recent unconsolidated nature of sea ice weather will be short lived.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Chris, Look no more, ECMWF has it projected...
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-06-12&v=-833280,-692992,48896,-234752 Look carefully for countless numerous leads, largely responsible for latest clouding over, but already clouds are vanishing fast.
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Being late Spring not late August, these sudden changes in weather are not unknown. But current Spring variance is unlike what Sereze may be inferring for "summer" . I find that this time the Lows are coming from the Pacific as well, of which NW Pacific has warmed faster than I expected. Current anti-gyre action will end soon. But by no means gone for good. In fact I expected it, with especially the opening of CAA coast, a High should settle off Gyre centre in particular near the Pole.
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Pretend you are on sea ice near the Pole, here is what happens when temperatures are near 0 C for the first time. Just prior, ice somewhat steady but moving, the sky somewhat grey but bluing, then its like Iceland outside geothermal pool in the middle of winter, what appears to be steam is in fact a wild mix of fog and organic chemicals, unleashed by myriad leads opening. Sea ice moves more fluidly, this fog stabilizes the warming to a flat trend, it also opposes the formation of Anticyclones over a wider area. Once most chemicals have photo reacted, this fog will diminish, remaining sea ice will form a cooling zone favoring Anticyclones. The North Pole Arctic Ocean is currently in this transition phase, its the final sea ice area to do so. I would expect the return of Anticyclones more or less near the North Pole within about 2 weeks, especially because the open water over Beaufort Sea will favor Cyclones.
Toggle Commented Jun 10, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan and D " I have no idea if this is relevant, or if there is anything on the correlations, but to my untutored eye we are due for a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic (US East). As a venting system for heat, does it relate? If this is irrelevant, don't bother answering. Just curious." These Hurricanes (Tropical Cyclones) always vent heat, its the larger holistic pattern which dictates where they go. So D is right they will appear more frequent, but because the over all global circulation patterns, caused by La-Nina and others lIke a High Pressure Covering the larger North Atlantic, make them return to your coast. Its like funnelling the energy in a narrower area rather distributing the heat more widely, no one cares about a hurricane only rolling along an Ocean path.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
John "Results from the present study suggest that, at least in part, the summer cyclone pattern owes its existence to differential atmospheric heating between the Arctic Ocean and snowfree land." Yes , currently partly true, not so for the Canadian High Arctic still loaded with snow, these current cyclones are a response to the lack of differential temperatures when sea ice and land temperatures have equalized, more open water helped the process. Its a transition burst, eventually when the bromide event fog and low clouds bursts settle, the cooler places will stand out again and Anticyclones will reappear. I have noted very early on, when Beaufort Sea first opened, a mini cyclone settled there over its newly exposed water despite a very strong nearby High pressure. It was a self explaining natural reaction.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
A couple of things of interest John: With recent AO trending negative, how is it not reflecting -again- current Arctic Ocean dominance of persistent cyclones affecting compaction. Tisk tisk , I would drop that AO theory affecting sea ice, because as we all know AO covers too big an area. Secundo, DMI 80 N temp model surface temperature calculation offers a good idea about warming, especially compared with previous years calculations. That is all. The real precision is with buoy surface temperature measurements in a standard height configuration. Unfortunately very scarce, 2015f June 8 average temp of -1.0 is very significant. Water for sure is present. Recent years buoy surface data albeit further North had much colder surface temperatures -5 to -6 same day, while in 2012, the data is more like 2016, closely similar with 2016 being a day or so warmer. The presence of Cyclones sticking so early means a lot of open water as well. broken ice. What matters then is reliable surface temperatures indicating much warmer conditions, the ice may melt in place, something we are familiar with but much harder to grasp or to analyze.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
In this new age of overwhelming data availability, the Arctic is a desert of isolation, offers very little fact checking observations. Of those which are available, very few may be accurate about the surface to air interface: I conclude that mass buoy surface temperatures are good, top thermistors leave a lot to be desired, but the rest of their data seems very plausible. With this, ice models missing 2007 melt by 31 years, have very little to work with.