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The latest Northwards Cyclones have had less MOJO compared to santa storm high energy event. I have clearly documented 2 more approaching cyclones not shining the High Arctic twilight as much as Christmas past. These exciting discoveries prove the possibility of cataloguing Cyclonic Intensities by how bright they are next to a darker cooler zone. So far on a scale of 1 to 10 I classify santa storm as a 10, to be beaten in brightness on one of those coming storms. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/01/north-pacific-in-origin-low-not-as.html http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/01/confirmation-higher-energy-weather.html The Arctic winter has started very mild temperature wise especially in the Alaska-Siberia regions. The coldest weather again lingered at the 65 North degree range approximately at about Hudson Bay Hudson Strait areas. Now the sun's return will make its mark, especially on the lands with very low snow cover, the dynamics of this will set the stage for the entire year.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have noted that 2014 greatest positive temperature anomalies were in the Arctic, which seems a bit of a contradiction since sea ice extent at minima did not repeat 2012. But it does make sense, given that more open sea water causes more clouds, these clouds are a direct result from a greater adiabatic nature of the lower atmosphere. There should be greater cloudiness until temperatures increase even further making the cloud formations more difficult. The way to judge this is to look back at 2012 rapid sea ice extent growth after minima, or the yearly quick Hudson Bay ice growth especially after a warm summer (especially fall 2014). Convection plays a significant role in cooling the surface by exchanging heat adiabatically. There is of course deviations from this obvious course, which slows or reduces cloud formations during spring or summer. When these happen a greater than 2012 melt is possible, 2014 had a later sunshine favorable event which amazed in melting sea ice North of Alaska. If sun shines earlier right about the solstice onwards over the same area 2012 will no longer be prime. So far I observe great injections of heat from the South creating a large warm and smaller cold polar zone. The warm zone being practically the entire Arctic Ocean and the cold zone being Hudson Bay centered cold temperature North Poles injecting steady cold flows Southwards to the West of Hudson Bay and warm currents Northwards to the East. With particularly warm areas North of Alaska (influenced by record warm North Pacific sst's) , and warmish Northern Siberia. With very frequent injections of Souh Atlantic heat by cyclones to the far North Atlantic. This is setting the stage for 2015 melt, any period of prolonged sunshine in the said warm areas would obliterate 2012 record easily. So it is a matter of knowing whether it would be cloudy or not. This may be known come April, after the return of the sun spins a clearer circulation image.
Toggle Commented Jan 18, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Happy new year Jim Well they missed the most basic concept of open sea water in darkness, the lower atmosphere is more adiabatic, when so, this causes much faster cooling on surface by convection, giving the illusion that there is some sort of ice "recovery" . Which on the surface looks whiter, but the rapid fresh cover made so by added convection keeps the greater heat stored in sea water for the spring melt. But thinner ice lags the start of winter at lower atmospheric layers which alters the pressure systems configurations , inviting warm cyclones Northwards instead of repulsing them Southwards. These lingering adiabatic cycles thus reduce the buildup of winter in darkness, and hence sea ice accretion. However adiabatic processes do the reverse in summer, and it was what we've seen during 2013-2014 melts. We underestimate the adiabatic nature of the lower atmosphere, which prompts greater cyclonic events, in summer this cools the Arctic. However, the heat stored in the Arctic ocean will eventually overtake accretion and accelerate melting even during a cloudy summer. The only thing shaking off this trend is ENSO, if we have a La Nina in spring or summer, there would be naturally less clouds, accelerating the melting further. Mean time, is a matter of thermal balance, when heat stored in ocean would accelerate the melt and clear the clouds above by greater heat injected by sun and sea water during a coming summers. Analyzing how vast Anticyclones persist in darkness will reveal if we are in a "recovery" or not. There is no such thing so far, just a changing nature of dynamical weather which may make the surface colder or warmer by the presence or not of clouds. So 2015 starting #1 in lowest extent is not a surprise.
I've seen much of this: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20hemisphere&step=0&relative_archive_date=2015010700&parameter=Wind%20850%20and%20mslp A massive Low pressure system centered over Greenland spanning from Norway to Minnesota , from Northern Siberia to the state of Kansas. Where its colder in Midwest plains than over Ellesmere Island. This brings the sea ice image near future clearer, there will be less of it. The pattern such above is seen recurring either looking back or forward. A wild winter warmish and cold seems established.
Nice animation, but it may give the illusion of no flow in July-August when sea surface temperatures were near +5 C , so there was a great deal of melting. The number of frames may not be sufficient to suggest melting. I would work on sst overlay o confirm the lack of flow out.
Toggle Commented Dec 29, 2014 on Fram Strait 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
It will be colder in North America in a few days, despite unusual warm temperatures, and we will hear from our friends the contrarians, loud and clear cold coming ice age stories. But the reality is the Santa Cyclone went North, to the left of a Cyclone is Southward flow, pushing down the cold gathered in darkness swiftly. The more intense the Poleward Cyclone the more fierce the temperature change to the colder to the Plains and most of the continent.
Hi Jim, I hope not! I want Arctic science subjects famous not me! Yes but thrilled to have contributed something in new scientist. Merry Christmas Jim, Whether, Neven and all here (even the usual deniers). Speaking of Christmas, the latest "Santa bomb" in North America, a news story about a winter storm, seemed an exaggeration, but a "bomb" usually sheds light, and in this case it was like a permanent brighter glow, so imagine , more light than imagination may give. And so again reality exceeds fiction. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/12/christmass-brightest-twilight-signals.html
Cheers Chris , As long as Piomas is quite different in calculating ice thickness than the models who failed projecting 2007 or 2012 minimas by 30 some years, you may have a point. But I doubt Piomas capable of doing a good job because remote sensing has trouble getting he ice surface temperature right. And especially the thickness alleged does not reflect atmospheric conditions above. Which allowed the jet stream to go wildly North, practically burying Buffalo as a result, the Great Lakes are still warm as should be in November but Arctic particularly sub-Arctic air was deflected almost straight Southwards. Outstanding work as usual Wipneus, It is essentially hard to explain that the air cooled further in 2012 with no ice at all in the Chukchi vicinity from minima. The physics involved would be exotic. As they may be. Or is sea ice way thinner than estimated at minima in 2014 which kept more heat than a wide open 2012 sea in darkness? In fact on my blog I demonstrate that Chukchi sea ice and surface air is warmer in 2014 than 2012, a very hard to fathom reality? http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/11/new-refraction-method-reveals-arctic.html
Yes thin ice is indeed on topic, I have been working on for years the complexity in detecting thin ice beyond modeling. I must point out how difficult it is, while 2014 was a lesser minima than all time low 2012, look: 2012 refrozen more over Bering sea area than 2014 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=11&fd=16&fy=2012&sm=11&sd=16&sy=2007 2014 is more in line with 2007 refreeze in that area. This brings the larger question whether 2014 ice was overall thicker than 2012 at this time of year. If 2012 was much thinner than 2014 then why did the ice refreeze more rapidly over said area? The answer is of course local in nature, but that is a simplification forgetting that thicker sea ice itself generates cold air in darkness. It appears that 2014 had a significant stealth melt with new evidence found by a technique so potent it can find localized atmosphere on the moon: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/10/the-sun-line-on-lunar-horizon.html I would suggest to ESA Rosetta cameras to try similar horizon shots Comet 67P/ Churyumov-Gerasimenko , their cameras are too focused on of course something they never seen, but the comet horizon offers more.
Shifted Southwards not by very much. .........
Yes I notice a recent warming throughout the entire Arctic like "presto" it gets warmer. Seen here on this ASIG: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php The entire North atmosphere warmed when North Atlantic air got transported upwards over Greenland it seemed. This gave interesting effects, namely the sunset of this evening shifted Southwards of yesterdays position. The warming is not only surface based but on the entire upper air profile. A sudden shift in warming like his causes havoc everywhere else southwards, especially from the wandering jet stream. Look back on the same graph and notice more enormous variations above the average trend this past spring.
Well done Charles, you will not only recover your investments but get wealthier in the long tun. May you be the envy of the neighborhood! Live long in clear blue wild west air and prosper. Would like to read more about Wadhams latest data . .8 meter average sea ice contrasts with Piomas. I am not a fan of Piomas, but will not largely discredit its info without strong evidence to the contrary.
Mark : "But (2) it must have been at least as free for the ship to have become stuck in the first place (a large sailing ship at that - which would need a lot of open water)" Oy mate, has Erebus and Terror gotten stuck in open water??? McClintock Channel ice was known since Franklin as fierce, un-penetrable. Even in 1903-06, but prior as seen by Hall (1869), McCintock (1854), James Ross (1835) and the ever so always present Inuit, who knew about it for thousands of years, not the least the Bowhead whales being distinct , blocked to swim freely by this ice, from North Atlantic to North Pacific for at least 100,000 years. Going back towards present times, in 1848 , yes, the same year of Erebus and Terror abandonment, James Ross searching for Franklin earlier and first (The Scots cared about their cousins fastest of course) with no less HMS Enterprise, took a look at North Peel Sound and declared it un-penetrable. Shortly afterwards McClure got completely stuck North of Banks Island, had to abandon his ship rescued by another rescue team, who's Admiral leader decided shortly after to abandon their own ships 4 of them, all beset in various regions of the wide open NW passage of now a days. They jumped on the NorthStar a cargo ship moored on Beechey Island, which was then considered the safest point before no man's land barred by sea ice, from that time onwards until Amundsen squeaked by on the other side of King William Island. All this history describes a very difficult NW passage, essentially impossible for commercial shipping. Again unlike today. Franklin's men were opportunistic and skillful, they were last beset in McClintock Channel in mid-September, in recent years you could not get stuck in the same channel all the way past October! Often with ships Captains noticing not one piece of ice to see! So Franklin crew slammed in the wrong ice, so thick and ridged it was a prison, all this ice came from the Arctic Ocean, as it was much thicker then, at least 3 meters thick all the way to Russia. From that time on, information gathered from he most expensive rescue attempt in history, declared the ice of the NW passage as totally blocking the route, until now. Particularly since the late 90's.
It is hardly a rebound, is more like a dynamic meteorological reshuffle of the deck of sea ice. Each melt season has the potential to become a 2007 or 2012 . Strait off stats don't express morphology or compactness, is just a number, a variant amongst many others. Sea ice is far more complicated than an existential one, if an analyst doesn't even consider the shape of the summers melt footprint, the analysis would be close to meaningless. Its not black and white, ice or water, a given year stat should be looked at in a sequence of stats, that is better, this graph for instance: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png flatly denies a recovery especially with respect o maximas not at all jumping up and down from the zero line. Minimas must be judged especially by shape and compactness, there is ample evidence of an extremely fragile state, about 14 days off from the right "dipole" weather to become an all time low area record. But not reaching the minimum extent doesn't mean that next year will be even better, in fact before 2012, 2011 had stronger ice morphology than 2014. 2006 minima was much more expansive and much healthier than 2014: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=18&fy=2006&sm=09&sd=18&sy=2011 So it is not a matter of simple ice thickness, (by the way good luck if you can calculate it right, because of tides and other physical variables, over all ice thickness is a very difficult measurement, PIOMAS is a nice try) its a matter of knowing how the sea ice behaves, shifts, coalesces, merges, ridges, how much snow on top, how fast the winds, clouds at all times, direct sun exposure and general atmospheric and sea circulations in 3D! But overall this year was a great melt with a very late thaw flavor, as today's Jaxa attests, there is some freezing overwhelmed by continuous melting. This is a presage for next season, the potential for all minima is kept well alive, despite a blink of the eye analyst may reveal wrongly.
Where is the Arctic Urban heat Island ? Seriously, I wonder if contrarians went to secondary school? Consider 2014 sea ice withdrawing from 71 degrees to 85 degrees North a net 840 nautical miles lost, with wider open water about in longitude, and they trumpet their "its a recovery" sound only not drowned because they count on people not having the time to look at a map. Shameless behavior reveals their intent to disarm reality, to render i acceptable and dumb.
The usual fake skeptics banter rings excessively hollow, in particular demonstrates a staggering level of ignorance. Particularly with respect to 2013, a cloudiest Arctic summer, it had nothing to do with cooling, something as simple as sun rays reflected by clouds over a long term causes cooling, this was 2013. Despite a cloudy summer start going on till beginning of July, 2014 has now huge areas of open water surrounding the remaining pack, a key feature of a great melt. It does not look like a recovery at all, except 2014 followed 2013 the partially melted in place sea ice pack season. If there is any sign of actual cooling it would be seen with sst's and surface temperatures, the latter in August was #1 warmest globally, the former is excessively warm. One would expect some contrarians to posit some semblance of reasoning which may prove their heresy against proper science, but they have nothing but childish bragging often repeated as a tool o fool themselves.
Great late melting action with surface air temperatures lesser than 0 is far less boring as 2014 melt season ends. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/09/extremely-late-in-season-spontaneous.html
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2014 on New NASA videos at Arctic Sea Ice
Couple of astounding things going about, first the NW passage is experiencing a great NW wind blow event, suddenly opening the main channel a greater deal, but there is still melting in the mix, look at archipelago ice trapped in Straits and Channels melting daily. Second, JAXA sea ice towards East Siberian sea is remarkably disappearing fast very late in the season: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png Third Cryosphere Today and NSIDC are reporting ice where I cant prove its existence, especially next to Brodeur peninsula, on EOSDIS there is nothing in Admirality Inlet, nothing significant visible flying over by air as well. Yet there is ice reported. Same thing next to Bothia peninsula if you compare with JAXA and EOSDIS. Finally Susan, if the Arctic temperatures change greatly, expect radically new weather to the South. The entire circulation system rearranges itself according to where the heat increases.
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Amundsen not Nansen ...
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin, true enough, but its more like if sea ice that killed the expedition was still there, they wouldn't have found one of the ships. If you look at all historical maps and of course sat data, McClintock channel ice was fierce and scary, prompted Nansen and many others to navigate East of King William Island channel. Now , in recent years even today, ships can zip through west of King William Island. Arctic secrets are revealed by the disappearing ice.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png After many glances I cant really make out a quite a recovery ! May be one should look at archives more often. Say 1984 or 94: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=09&fy=1984&sm=09&sd=09&sy=1994 not even 2004 or 2009: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=09&fy=2004&sm=09&sd=09&sy=2009 Note to contrarian, the green areas are less than 50% coverage, and yes, the Northwest passage is open, even large enough to reveal an important mystery literally hidden for 166 years by perineal ice which is no more.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
DavidR. 2013 was indeed a pivotal year, but likely an indication of melts to come, whereas it was colder for dynamical reasons, ie it was extremely cloudy all summer long. With thinner ice, the cyclones should take over the summer Arctic Ocean, this should give a respite in compaction and insolation greater melts, I believe it likely that higher surface and sst temperatures would have to progress further in order to compensate for this dynamical cooling. 2014 is the offshoot of 2013, more thick ice at maxima 2014 created a partial return of normal clockwise "Gyre" weather giving the results we know. Contrary to 2013, 2014 had a lot more heating of the Arctic seas, this likely will mean overall thinner ice at next maxima, and a return to 2013 summer weather, especially given the warmer sst's of the North Atlantic and Pacific. Fake skeptics fail to understand the details or mechanics and resolve to propagate the simple look, they want to reach the short attention spans most people have about the Arctic. But most people are smarter than they think. Eventually this dynamical "freeze" will be overwhelmed by warmer Global temperatures, making for an interesting unusual melt pattern we had a glimpse of this season, water gaps will show at the center of cyclones eventually growing in size from within the ice pack. However the tidal currents will quickly cover the gap, suffices to say that many intense cyclones will rip away the consolidated fabric of the pack until there is not much thicker ice left. Expect the unexpected when weather patterns change.
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I would not comment on 2014 before the minima is in, that makes sense. And there is very interesting developments, making 2014 very unlike 2013, I knew the greater melting would be late months ago, so it is unjustified to do an autopsy on a living corpse. As far as volume is concerned, Piomas is based on a model of sorts, the sea ice models have failed to replicate recent years sea ice melts. There is a flaw with the models which needs to be discovered. As I watched sea ice bergy bit melt right in front of me in water +0.6 C now over Barrow Strait, I am inspired to say the NW passage through Peel sound is open (contrary to recent prognostications) and that late melting clearly outlines the thicker more consolidated ice as on JAXA is about the same as 2012. To the untrained eye it certainly seems a recovery, but alas it isn't at all. +0.5 C water with warmed up thinner ice spells melting with a capital M. Of which pales compared to sea ice shores with waters +1 to +3 degrees above normal: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.9.4.2014.gif
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
has spread out the ice shore pack a lot more specifically in the Russian and European quadrant….
Tenney, "Cyclonic activity still ongoing, folks:" … And the minima is not reached, the cyclonic activity has now really spread out at the ice shores and particularly vulnerable. SST's are staggeringly high in the North Atlantic and Pacific, its cloudy and I see a delay of the minima date along with further surprises.