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Well Neven, More than 22 Km/day drift for the entire Pack North of Ellesmere Island all the way to Russia, is no longer the pack I knew for decades. This means the greatest amount of open water in the densest zone ever. What is left of clear air in darkness is equally warm, clouds have dominated for so long the land, the ice itself all is warmer. Over all circulation is "l" shape like 2013, favorable for clouds to reign beyond the soon to be maxima. Waiting for dark horizon data to confirm all this, but clouds, relentless fog horizons causing hoar frost hinder observations: to be completed tonight....
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on A new Arctic feedback (?) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, The biggest story is not the storm (a stand alone great event) , but sea ice drift velocity beyond 26 km/day below top cyclone winds. And especially looking away from it, 13 km a day within the traditionally densest pack. A few years back, I would of thought these speeds unbelievable in mid January. 4 km a day was considered very fast.
Looks bad with the numerical data, visually speaking even worse,(I will have something on this on the 19th). With extent hovering below 2012 many times near 1,000,000 km2. Wipneus was on the right course, September minima looked expansive for untrained eyes. There was a massive dispersion event as I reported, this new generation area calculation seems more accurate.
Hallo Werther "First week of Januari temp anomalies were not as bad as last winter." Very correct as usual, but general Arctic circulation is not at all like last year. I have not grasped the look of things, it seems complex. However, I would expect a few in NYC to write about 60 F on Thursday. Someone in London may like the 52 F/ 11 C tomorrow. 'Bien etrange' in Montreal to be +7 C in 2 days.
Toggle Commented Jan 11, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
There is an important point about water vapor at this time, there is no solar radiation at all for most of the sea ice total area during the long Arctic night. The only local heat sources are from Ocean directly or through sea ice and from the warmest point of the atmosphere, about 1000 meters ASL. Cyclones bring up heat from the South along with wind advection from far away warmer regions. Water vapor basically absorbs Long Wave Radiation coming from these sources. If we have thinner sea ice, as suggested by less sea ice volume, this would trigger greater absorption of IR. Thinner sea ice is for all practical purpose a dark sun, provenance of heat is from below and not from above, water vapor can only give more heat with more open water, thinner sea ice, or more heat advection. Less sea ice is the prime heat injector not water vapor is a feedback from this reality.
Toggle Commented Jan 10, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Jai..... ....for the neat links, if you click strategically to where the moisture is, in the cyclonic zones, you will find also warmth there as well, clouds impact this enormously, there is also injections from numerous leads recognized by warming air even strait in the middle of a High pressure system, not to forget especially vast thinner sea ice spans. My most recent article quotes a paper with something in the order of 129 W/m2 heat from 30 cm ice. A huge heat injection without the leads (which pump even greater heat to air in more restrained areas). If you add the greater moisture brought by these cyclones you will of course find more heat not leaving to space. I don't have any objections with believing that more moisture adds to the greater heat equation, it is part of a sum of a whole giving a net heat or temperature gain.
Toggle Commented Jan 10, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jai As far as water vapor is concerned, try precipitable water: Not impressively high, an Arctic standby. Are you seeing something else? Hi AbbottisGone Try: amazing speeds....
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hello Jai "have seen them in the January-March of 2006, 2011, 2012 all years with similar extent coverage during this period. We did not." And we did have similar circulations, not with the same intensity, since even PIOMAS admits, we are at all time low volume numbers, and no, sea ice in 2006, 11 and 12 had a solid core area North of the Canadian Archipelago, unlike after September 2016. Cyclone "invitations" are done by a merge rendering system, the Cyclones linger over sea Ice long enough to merge with the next one from the South. There is more moisture as well especially this year, as seen by clouds, no doubt more heat remains near the surface by it. Antarctica is another Polar world, we need dabble with it exclusively on another blog perhaps.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Walt Meier of course.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi P-Maker, We are likely in one Tipping point phase, the end period of steady sea ice sheets will be confirmed come maxima. Walt Meir of NASA: Highlights the greatest reason why we have swift moving sea ice, there is very little multi-year ice left. Now we likely enter a transition sea ice period of fluid ice, easily moving in one direction or another, placing in question whether we will still recognize a long lasting Beaufort gyre or Trans Polar Stream current.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Glenn "You say that the high pressure systems quickly dissolve... Is there any way to anticipate a change in that trend," In fact yes, in mid March or then about, the ice should be as cold as it gets, and I suspect some High pressure system lasting, this has been the main trend at maxima over the last several years. It is predictable, but not a game changer. "Do you feel that we should anticipate a continued greater divergence from the norm " Yes, look very carefully for 2 parameters, very warmer surface air temperatures and sea ice drift. The 2 are deeply related; Arctic Ocean sea ice velocities have been extremely crazy fast, at one time or another, we can conclude from this, the probable end of trekking to the North Pole in the normal about 60 days starting from land; warmer air existed even with a recent High Pressure expulsion. If there is a break from this pattern the first thing to notice is the the steadying of the drift.
Toggle Commented Jan 8, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Glenn Is possible for sea ice to thicken a great deal quickly only if there are no clouds and or warm air advection from the South. If a massive Anticyclone would simply remain steady over the Arctic Ocean for the next 3 months. But all recent observations makes this scenario highly unlikely because over all sea ice is thin, there are many leads, there is a great deal of heat injected from the Ocean. This "invites" Cyclones to "visit" and to persist longer ensuring more cloud cover and warmer temperatures. A few Anticyclones from the South have ventured by general circulation forcing, they did not last, they did not build up, they were constantly weakened from the sides and more importantly, from under. The possibility of a major High Pressure system moving North is always present, but they are neither "invited" nor welcome to stay long.
Toggle Commented Jan 8, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
No can of worms Bill, I thought I'd be positively brimming with a grande finale solution about this matter. Yes , we are left with, as always, very fragile democracies to solve all mega problems. We fail often to mention ocean acidification as well, oceans may be a sink, but injected CO2 will unnaturally re-select all sea ecologies to a lower pH, a messy thing while in transition. However, the public must be informed and individual actions by the billions may go a long way. Sea ice at present is showing glimpses from the past, here and there, not hopeful at all, "au revoir", sort of , of the old ways. We have to inform the public about this as best we can.
Toggle Commented Jan 8, 2017 on Global warming 2016: Arctic spin at Arctic Sea Ice
"The rapid emissions growth is unlikely to continue much longer as the reserves of conventional oil, coal, and gas become depleted " Bill, We can burn all the drilling we want, fracking adds untold billions of barrels worth of CO2, along with new localized earthquakes and destroyed aquifers, still pulverize many mountains worth of coal, return Earth to 1000 ppm CO2, bringing us back to when Dinosaurs thundered the ground. No one with great power or influence is, except a poor lot of non billionaires and the U.N. , is trying to stop this. Strong odds are we are doomed, but not without a fight to the proverbial end. My money for hope is on the Climate being sort of like Moses, in one instance ordering present day Pharaohs, the rich and powerful dumb and dumber puppeteers, Murdoch, Koch brothers etc, in love with the virtues of pollution, exemplified by their private gold platted jet toilets, to spare the Environment. Perhaps by some catastrophe, whipping out Margo Largo Golf course or some freak weather sinking their 400 million dollar cruise ships, or sea level rise flooding their precious properties. But since they are rich, they'll just buy other ego driven toys. Which brings us back to the second instance of hope, by climate disasters convincing the voters to get things done politically, instead of injecting politics in science, let scientists actually run key aspects of our planet. Is a matter of explaining to people as many as possible, to elect people who are scientifically literate. Sea ice is a very important subject needing the attention of a greater audience. Once we attain critical voting mass, 51% in most countries, we will be saved. Currently the environmental movement is not there yet, i'd say we are about 10%. Will never get there with this NSM 24/7 beast requiring a different story a day.
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2017 on Global warming 2016: Arctic spin at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, Remember the little discussion about La-Nina we had? Here is a very nice forecast: Mr Gregory includes La-Nina, which presence should not only be judged by temperature grids. Something like someone "put a lid" on very strong El-Nino last spring, there was a sudden steep downward trend in ENSO temperatures, and there was a very significant big blue event in the Arctic.... At any rate it is a very good classic forecast, which misses the sea ice aspect of things. Namely there is a doughnut hole warming around the North Pole with deeper freezing over the Northern Continents, as a result, the cold center vortices have moved Southwards affecting the jet stream and other general circulation patterns. You may like this...
Hear hear! Remko. That is where solar panels will hit people minds, especially wanting better jobs. I can't see it any other way, renewables are rising economies. Alas Trump only sees them as an "eyesore".
A Dutch-Canadian artist friend of mine suggested we forego politicians running science Departments, in other words, some Government run by scientists, hence no more crazy ying yang back and forth policy changes at every election. That is the only viable solution for the future. The current US department of Energy was run very ably by a very good nuclear scientist, the next guy is a yahoo from Texas believing in things, this and that, science one of these things, and crazy ideas some of that, if only he can remember the name of the Department in question....
Toggle Commented Dec 30, 2016 on Global warming 2016: Arctic spin at Arctic Sea Ice
Much Thanks Jim, According to the first rule of sea ice horizon refraction, the first bit of blue is correct, represents the surface, the latter is buried deeper within sea ice or snow or has a defective thermistor. I take it you can read .dat files.... Very nice.
True to current days circulation, extreme cold area, a Northwards moving piece from a High pressure from Siberia cools the North! Take 2, the first one lasted less than a week. What is additionally interesting is rest of the world weather, if winter is under assault from the North!? and the South, what about your weather?
Xmass greetings Jim, What happened to the buoy surface trace in blue? It seemed close to air at beginning and then unusually stable later, defective?
A small area solid refreeze is possible North of Ellesmere D, But none seen so far, that area is where the coldest air possible is created, but time is running out.
Merry Christmas D yes, not only through Fram Strait but the Archipelago Straits by 24/7 tidal current, we've seen this last September, sea ice extent increased mistaken by a few as a freeze-up. Baffin Bay is where the ice jams up. Speaking of which, I am convinced Baffin Bay is the current model for the Arctic Ocean, having floating pack ice impossible to walk on for long during winter, then all gone during summer, higher speed kinetic ice dynamics being obstructed by narrower passages. Earth now enters into the not possible to venture on sea ice soon, if not now, until a solid refreeze really occurs.
From data gathered by IABP N 84 47.400 E 165 4.200 14.64 n. miles NW (312°) Buoy 48580 3 day displacement Russian side of the Pole, 5 nautical miles a day! Huge… Further North: N 84 18.000 E 81 59.400 25.59 n. miles W (259°) buoy 48770 3 day displacement 25.6 nautical miles. Monster speed. It looks bad if data and calculations are confirmed. Fluidity means lack of consolidation, implying persistent open water leads as sea ice moves swiftly.
Kris, The amount of energy exchanged from open Ocean in darkness and or much thinner sea ice in darkness is huge: , the longer we have these crazy warm anomalies the more energy will be released from the sea creating a certainty in coming less sea ice volume ever.
That was likely thin ice recently made....