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wayne
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Global sea ice extent has been a very misleading argument favoring the "business as usual" tunnel vision gang of deniers for a long time. The Arctic is very dissimilar to Antarctic in almost every way. The Poles are incredibly different, the South Pole is a covered land mass buried by a huge amount of glacier ice and has a surface altitude of 2835 meters ASL, the North Pole surface altitude varies between 0 and 10 meters above sea level having a warm sea instead of relatively very frozen huge glacial mass just below. Moving Southwards or Northwards with respect to the Poles is even more drastically different. The well known Polar atmospheres reflect topographic disparities quite thoroughly. So Kano, what is in any way the justification of adding these two differing regions data as one? The ball is in your court. I suggest you start by destroying this premise,: A warming Earth will affect each region in its own way-.No , you cant posit a warming Earth will respond in a homogenous bland linear temperature increase everywhere, the planet is not a blue marble.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, Cincinnatus is just taking a break from correcting the deluge of errors on WUWT site. I dont think that Neven's original presentation had anything wrong, as he published 2013-14 data numerous times before. 2013-14 melt seasons were more complex to understand therefore impossible to explain to dimwitted deniers.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, You have to consider sea ice as part of an holistic system, the North Atlantic storms, battering and melting sea ice, exist stronger and more numerous because there was less sea ice at minima in the same region last year, as well as because there is a warmer Atlantic and Pacific. The result of this changes the weather in a very predictable way. WUWT base may be in California, I guess these guys have a rough winter, proving that there is no Global Warming and that sea ice extent plays no role in the greater weather systems. :)
Toggle Commented Feb 20, 2015 on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Well Jay , RRR is not an easy thing to understand unless you know where the coldest air is, from that point everything is clear. Remains to explain why the coldest atmosphere is not moving much, just like the RRR, and this I do http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/
Toggle Commented Feb 18, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
The newish downward trend in sea ice extent goes back to the "santa storm" , a much forgotten event in populated areas because it caused rain instead of 3 feet of snow. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/ Nevertheless there is a link between the heat it brought further North and less Sea ice extent. There hasn't been such a strong storm heading Northwards, but several smaller ones, not as warm, but enough to burry Boston. Al were and are l heading to the same Arctic locations. However none so massive as seen during recent twilights. Darkness has set at the return of the sun.
Toggle Commented Feb 13, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
The dynamical meteorology change in the Arctic is rooted in Global Warming. But does not necessarily give the appearance of warming at times, especially in the summer, what is key to remember is extent numbers reaching all time lows at times during the yearly cycle. When this happens, it is an indication of the potential for ever more greater minimas. PIOMAS volume changes does not reflect this potential, rather gives trends as a result of mostly summer weather dynamics ice pack expansion not compaction. This season so far had great influxes of warm cyclones from North Atlantic Northwards affecting roughly half of the entire Arctic Ocean pack, I suspect the volume less then projected, and I am not surprised if PIOMAS may be off. If you manually drill sea ice in a very small area there can be significant differences in thickness. So any model not having a 1 meter resolution base would give erroneous results. "Arctic-wide thickness losses are more difficult to document because of the sparse sampling in time and space. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/04/arctic-sea-ice-volume-piomas-prediction-and-the-perils-of-extrapolation/comment-page-2/#sthash.ifiqdF6B.dpuf" Using the scant buoy data itself to integrate actual sonar ice depth gives the same problem as with manual ice observations. A possible work around would be to actually scan a wider area of sea ice thickness before placing a buoy, in the hope of having a better representation of an ice field. But I think we need calibrate ourselves with some aspects of ice data as presented, which is compare extent, likely JAXA with respect to Piomas, if the extent is near all time low (like now) and Piomas trends the other way (like now) , there should be a bit of skepticism with respect to the PIOMAS volume projection.
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nice job Jim, Unfortunately, they have a huge double standard as well, they err almost industrially and they mock a scientist or an article when it appears to be wrong once. So it is good for us to set the record straight, a note to these who follow these clowns, there is better sources out there, science may appear to be murky, complicated, and confusing, but its because understanding complex mechanisms is a vocation, publicizing popular nonsense is entertainment. The writings of contrarians will make people cry or laugh for centuries. That is if people are still around.
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
The current low sea ice extent is a response to increased Cyclonic penetration from the North Atlantic, in particular the slow down in accretion right after powerful event of the Santa Storm. Only equalled by the current 957 mb US and Canada Pacific coast cyclone, which appears from a great distance to shine light just as bright during Arctic Twilight. However this Cyclone is a great example of what winter Anticyclones do, as it crashes right on winter it will fade or dissipate. So its effect over sea ice will be much smaller. But nevertheless a true representation of winters of old stretched out every where South of the Arctic, massive repulsion of warm cyclones. Now we have a smaller version not everywhere South of the panarctic. And here I think we fail again to convey the most important news about sea ice: currently in recovery hey? We affix too much importance to year minima and maximas, without realizing that we are near all time low extent! Especially, after the fabulous recovery at September 2014 past minima, right? .... How quicka turn around ??? Underlies what Werther and some of us suspect. Piomas is not getting all right. We will hover around all time lows in extent, apparently easier to measure than volume, for endless times to come. A roller coaster for WUWT dumb dumbs.
Toggle Commented Feb 6, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
The latest Northwards Cyclones have had less MOJO compared to santa storm high energy event. I have clearly documented 2 more approaching cyclones not shining the High Arctic twilight as much as Christmas past. These exciting discoveries prove the possibility of cataloguing Cyclonic Intensities by how bright they are next to a darker cooler zone. So far on a scale of 1 to 10 I classify santa storm as a 10, to be beaten in brightness on one of those coming storms. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/01/north-pacific-in-origin-low-not-as.html http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/01/confirmation-higher-energy-weather.html The Arctic winter has started very mild temperature wise especially in the Alaska-Siberia regions. The coldest weather again lingered at the 65 North degree range approximately at about Hudson Bay Hudson Strait areas. Now the sun's return will make its mark, especially on the lands with very low snow cover, the dynamics of this will set the stage for the entire year.
Toggle Commented Jan 23, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have noted that 2014 greatest positive temperature anomalies were in the Arctic, which seems a bit of a contradiction since sea ice extent at minima did not repeat 2012. But it does make sense, given that more open sea water causes more clouds, these clouds are a direct result from a greater adiabatic nature of the lower atmosphere. There should be greater cloudiness until temperatures increase even further making the cloud formations more difficult. The way to judge this is to look back at 2012 rapid sea ice extent growth after minima, or the yearly quick Hudson Bay ice growth especially after a warm summer (especially fall 2014). Convection plays a significant role in cooling the surface by exchanging heat adiabatically. There is of course deviations from this obvious course, which slows or reduces cloud formations during spring or summer. When these happen a greater than 2012 melt is possible, 2014 had a later sunshine favorable event which amazed in melting sea ice North of Alaska. If sun shines earlier right about the solstice onwards over the same area 2012 will no longer be prime. So far I observe great injections of heat from the South creating a large warm and smaller cold polar zone. The warm zone being practically the entire Arctic Ocean and the cold zone being Hudson Bay centered cold temperature North Poles injecting steady cold flows Southwards to the West of Hudson Bay and warm currents Northwards to the East. With particularly warm areas North of Alaska (influenced by record warm North Pacific sst's) , and warmish Northern Siberia. With very frequent injections of Souh Atlantic heat by cyclones to the far North Atlantic. This is setting the stage for 2015 melt, any period of prolonged sunshine in the said warm areas would obliterate 2012 record easily. So it is a matter of knowing whether it would be cloudy or not. This may be known come April, after the return of the sun spins a clearer circulation image.
Toggle Commented Jan 18, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Happy new year Jim Well they missed the most basic concept of open sea water in darkness, the lower atmosphere is more adiabatic, when so, this causes much faster cooling on surface by convection, giving the illusion that there is some sort of ice "recovery" . Which on the surface looks whiter, but the rapid fresh cover made so by added convection keeps the greater heat stored in sea water for the spring melt. But thinner ice lags the start of winter at lower atmospheric layers which alters the pressure systems configurations , inviting warm cyclones Northwards instead of repulsing them Southwards. These lingering adiabatic cycles thus reduce the buildup of winter in darkness, and hence sea ice accretion. However adiabatic processes do the reverse in summer, and it was what we've seen during 2013-2014 melts. We underestimate the adiabatic nature of the lower atmosphere, which prompts greater cyclonic events, in summer this cools the Arctic. However, the heat stored in the Arctic ocean will eventually overtake accretion and accelerate melting even during a cloudy summer. The only thing shaking off this trend is ENSO, if we have a La Nina in spring or summer, there would be naturally less clouds, accelerating the melting further. Mean time, is a matter of thermal balance, when heat stored in ocean would accelerate the melt and clear the clouds above by greater heat injected by sun and sea water during a coming summers. Analyzing how vast Anticyclones persist in darkness will reveal if we are in a "recovery" or not. There is no such thing so far, just a changing nature of dynamical weather which may make the surface colder or warmer by the presence or not of clouds. So 2015 starting #1 in lowest extent is not a surprise.
I've seen much of this: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20hemisphere&step=0&relative_archive_date=2015010700&parameter=Wind%20850%20and%20mslp A massive Low pressure system centered over Greenland spanning from Norway to Minnesota , from Northern Siberia to the state of Kansas. Where its colder in Midwest plains than over Ellesmere Island. This brings the sea ice image near future clearer, there will be less of it. The pattern such above is seen recurring either looking back or forward. A wild winter warmish and cold seems established.
Nice animation, but it may give the illusion of no flow in July-August when sea surface temperatures were near +5 C , so there was a great deal of melting. The number of frames may not be sufficient to suggest melting. I would work on sst overlay o confirm the lack of flow out.
Toggle Commented Dec 29, 2014 on Fram Strait 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
It will be colder in North America in a few days, despite unusual warm temperatures, and we will hear from our friends the contrarians, loud and clear cold coming ice age stories. But the reality is the Santa Cyclone went North, to the left of a Cyclone is Southward flow, pushing down the cold gathered in darkness swiftly. The more intense the Poleward Cyclone the more fierce the temperature change to the colder to the Plains and most of the continent.
Hi Jim, I hope not! I want Arctic science subjects famous not me! Yes but thrilled to have contributed something in new scientist. Merry Christmas Jim, Whether, Neven and all here (even the usual deniers). Speaking of Christmas, the latest "Santa bomb" in North America, a news story about a winter storm, seemed an exaggeration, but a "bomb" usually sheds light, and in this case it was like a permanent brighter glow, so imagine , more light than imagination may give. And so again reality exceeds fiction. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/12/christmass-brightest-twilight-signals.html
Cheers Chris , As long as Piomas is quite different in calculating ice thickness than the models who failed projecting 2007 or 2012 minimas by 30 some years, you may have a point. But I doubt Piomas capable of doing a good job because remote sensing has trouble getting he ice surface temperature right. And especially the thickness alleged does not reflect atmospheric conditions above. Which allowed the jet stream to go wildly North, practically burying Buffalo as a result, the Great Lakes are still warm as should be in November but Arctic particularly sub-Arctic air was deflected almost straight Southwards. Outstanding work as usual Wipneus, It is essentially hard to explain that the air cooled further in 2012 with no ice at all in the Chukchi vicinity from minima. The physics involved would be exotic. As they may be. Or is sea ice way thinner than estimated at minima in 2014 which kept more heat than a wide open 2012 sea in darkness? In fact on my blog I demonstrate that Chukchi sea ice and surface air is warmer in 2014 than 2012, a very hard to fathom reality? http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/11/new-refraction-method-reveals-arctic.html
Yes thin ice is indeed on topic, I have been working on for years the complexity in detecting thin ice beyond modeling. I must point out how difficult it is, while 2014 was a lesser minima than all time low 2012, look: 2012 refrozen more over Bering sea area than 2014 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=11&fd=16&fy=2012&sm=11&sd=16&sy=2007 2014 is more in line with 2007 refreeze in that area. This brings the larger question whether 2014 ice was overall thicker than 2012 at this time of year. If 2012 was much thinner than 2014 then why did the ice refreeze more rapidly over said area? The answer is of course local in nature, but that is a simplification forgetting that thicker sea ice itself generates cold air in darkness. It appears that 2014 had a significant stealth melt with new evidence found by a technique so potent it can find localized atmosphere on the moon: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/10/the-sun-line-on-lunar-horizon.html I would suggest to ESA Rosetta cameras to try similar horizon shots Comet 67P/ Churyumov-Gerasimenko , their cameras are too focused on of course something they never seen, but the comet horizon offers more.
Shifted Southwards not by very much. .........
Yes I notice a recent warming throughout the entire Arctic like "presto" it gets warmer. Seen here on this ASIG: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php The entire North atmosphere warmed when North Atlantic air got transported upwards over Greenland it seemed. This gave interesting effects, namely the sunset of this evening shifted Southwards of yesterdays position. The warming is not only surface based but on the entire upper air profile. A sudden shift in warming like his causes havoc everywhere else southwards, especially from the wandering jet stream. Look back on the same graph and notice more enormous variations above the average trend this past spring.
Well done Charles, you will not only recover your investments but get wealthier in the long tun. May you be the envy of the neighborhood! Live long in clear blue wild west air and prosper. Would like to read more about Wadhams latest data . .8 meter average sea ice contrasts with Piomas. I am not a fan of Piomas, but will not largely discredit its info without strong evidence to the contrary.
Mark : "But (2) it must have been at least as free for the ship to have become stuck in the first place (a large sailing ship at that - which would need a lot of open water)" Oy mate, has Erebus and Terror gotten stuck in open water??? McClintock Channel ice was known since Franklin as fierce, un-penetrable. Even in 1903-06, but prior as seen by Hall (1869), McCintock (1854), James Ross (1835) and the ever so always present Inuit, who knew about it for thousands of years, not the least the Bowhead whales being distinct , blocked to swim freely by this ice, from North Atlantic to North Pacific for at least 100,000 years. Going back towards present times, in 1848 , yes, the same year of Erebus and Terror abandonment, James Ross searching for Franklin earlier and first (The Scots cared about their cousins fastest of course) with no less HMS Enterprise, took a look at North Peel Sound and declared it un-penetrable. Shortly afterwards McClure got completely stuck North of Banks Island, had to abandon his ship rescued by another rescue team, who's Admiral leader decided shortly after to abandon their own ships 4 of them, all beset in various regions of the wide open NW passage of now a days. They jumped on the NorthStar a cargo ship moored on Beechey Island, which was then considered the safest point before no man's land barred by sea ice, from that time onwards until Amundsen squeaked by on the other side of King William Island. All this history describes a very difficult NW passage, essentially impossible for commercial shipping. Again unlike today. Franklin's men were opportunistic and skillful, they were last beset in McClintock Channel in mid-September, in recent years you could not get stuck in the same channel all the way past October! Often with ships Captains noticing not one piece of ice to see! So Franklin crew slammed in the wrong ice, so thick and ridged it was a prison, all this ice came from the Arctic Ocean, as it was much thicker then, at least 3 meters thick all the way to Russia. From that time on, information gathered from he most expensive rescue attempt in history, declared the ice of the NW passage as totally blocking the route, until now. Particularly since the late 90's.
It is hardly a rebound, is more like a dynamic meteorological reshuffle of the deck of sea ice. Each melt season has the potential to become a 2007 or 2012 . Strait off stats don't express morphology or compactness, is just a number, a variant amongst many others. Sea ice is far more complicated than an existential one, if an analyst doesn't even consider the shape of the summers melt footprint, the analysis would be close to meaningless. Its not black and white, ice or water, a given year stat should be looked at in a sequence of stats, that is better, this graph for instance: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png flatly denies a recovery especially with respect o maximas not at all jumping up and down from the zero line. Minimas must be judged especially by shape and compactness, there is ample evidence of an extremely fragile state, about 14 days off from the right "dipole" weather to become an all time low area record. But not reaching the minimum extent doesn't mean that next year will be even better, in fact before 2012, 2011 had stronger ice morphology than 2014. 2006 minima was much more expansive and much healthier than 2014: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=18&fy=2006&sm=09&sd=18&sy=2011 So it is not a matter of simple ice thickness, (by the way good luck if you can calculate it right, because of tides and other physical variables, over all ice thickness is a very difficult measurement, PIOMAS is a nice try) its a matter of knowing how the sea ice behaves, shifts, coalesces, merges, ridges, how much snow on top, how fast the winds, clouds at all times, direct sun exposure and general atmospheric and sea circulations in 3D! But overall this year was a great melt with a very late thaw flavor, as today's Jaxa attests, there is some freezing overwhelmed by continuous melting. This is a presage for next season, the potential for all minima is kept well alive, despite a blink of the eye analyst may reveal wrongly.
Where is the Arctic Urban heat Island ? Seriously, I wonder if contrarians went to secondary school? Consider 2014 sea ice withdrawing from 71 degrees to 85 degrees North a net 840 nautical miles lost, with wider open water about in longitude, and they trumpet their "its a recovery" sound only not drowned because they count on people not having the time to look at a map. Shameless behavior reveals their intent to disarm reality, to render i acceptable and dumb.
The usual fake skeptics banter rings excessively hollow, in particular demonstrates a staggering level of ignorance. Particularly with respect to 2013, a cloudiest Arctic summer, it had nothing to do with cooling, something as simple as sun rays reflected by clouds over a long term causes cooling, this was 2013. Despite a cloudy summer start going on till beginning of July, 2014 has now huge areas of open water surrounding the remaining pack, a key feature of a great melt. It does not look like a recovery at all, except 2014 followed 2013 the partially melted in place sea ice pack season. If there is any sign of actual cooling it would be seen with sst's and surface temperatures, the latter in August was #1 warmest globally, the former is excessively warm. One would expect some contrarians to posit some semblance of reasoning which may prove their heresy against proper science, but they have nothing but childish bragging often repeated as a tool o fool themselves.
Great late melting action with surface air temperatures lesser than 0 is far less boring as 2014 melt season ends. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/09/extremely-late-in-season-spontaneous.html
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2014 on New NASA videos at Arctic Sea Ice