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wayne
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Al, freezing between near shore pack ice is always possible at -30! But not over wide open water with sst's way warmer than it takes to freeze sea water. The North Atlantic heat engine broke apart, it is smaller, and carries less heat Northwards because it is too warm in southern latitudes. At any rate a great melt is foreseen for the near future but perhaps not for the entire melt season: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/03/enso-arctic-to-cloud-and-cool-or-to.html More work is needed before the projections are final.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Well the N's are experts and have more info than we imagine. Besides it forces us to focus on the regions at hand, Bering and Okhotsk were said to have potential and nothing happened. So we learn. Historically, record low maximums give very low minimas. So it is significant. I must mention that the fascinating and important study to be have comparing 2013-14 maxima with 2014-15. They both were at the same low record point, from that moment 13-14 had more extent than 14-15 now with far less. The atmosphere turns out to be much warmer in 14-15. But there are other reasons for this disparity.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
I read from CT the following seas increase in extent: Barents, Greenland, Kara and Hudson Bay. Bering and Okhotsk seem out for the count. Barents may have some shore ice increase only on its North side where sst's are said to be 0 C , so its a very slim to no chance of increase there. Greenland sea is same, no chance, sst's are too high and surface air too warm. Kara is the only place with possibility of increase where conditions are still prone to accretion. West Hudson Bay is right by a very warm western Canada and where the coldest air is to its North. Hudson Bay is tough to call, except the sun is too high in the sky to make a serious re-freeze. Basically there is no sign of extent freezing aside from small areas loaded with ice. I'd suggest the sea ice is breaking up and making extent appear larger, but melting will overwhelm this illusion soon.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
---by 2014-2015 record low maxima sea ice--
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
And the "elevated SST's in the N Pac " contributed to the "2014 hottest year evah". The greater volume of sea ice is debatable , but not impossible since 2013 summer sea ice melted in place, no real movement, may have meant more ridging, not caused by cooling, however thicker ridged sea ice can cause more arctic cooling - by meteorological dynamics. 2014 warmest year on record was confirmed by 2014-2015 record low minima sea ice, which makes the world temperature record more robust and far less debatable. Following such events, 2005 and 2010, came the lowest sea ice records ever 2007 and 2012.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
"2014 hottest year evah" English aside , "the warmest year on record", as I predicted last year in April. And you thought a person would figure out : hotter = less Arctic sea ice But we can always try to teach .....
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Artful D, very tough call for ENSO. There were some CCN streaks in the stratosphere polar vortex, but none lately when a cyclone broke its wind pattern. None, absolutely clear twilight sky. Very rare event. A warmer stratosphere does not create PSC's. It rather implies La-Nina than El-Nino. The North Pacific warmer sst's will eventually replace cloud seeding from the Equator in July. So in the interim it looks like a great chunk of the Arctic will be cloud free, especially where he thickest ice is.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
To be cloudy or not to be cloudy? That is the post earliest max ever question. If all that 1 million + dark water is hit by sun rays increasing in intensity every day, odds are 2012 would be toast. But now the weather must change, the hemispheric wide heat engines have shrunk but are still in action. More data is needed to figure out if clouds and cyclones will continue or if the sun would change the cloud scene to blue. El-Nino is said to come, but : http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.3.19.2015.gif The South equatorial Pacific is very La-Nina like. For the mean time , the North Pacific is still quite warm, The current circulation scheme should lag, but change is in the air. More sea ice news will be breaking very soon. Current signals are a bit complex, I await simpler ones to report.
Toggle Commented Mar 19, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
"Mark Serreze, says, they’ve been getting “crazy weather patterns in the Arctic as of late.”" What I have reported for months was lets say "crazy" because it was so stable. A stable heat engine on a planetary scale, with pistons the size of cyclones more than 1000 miles wide. I predicted this lesser ice extent for quite some time now. Yesterday saw the break in 2 of Arctic fortress winter. by yet another cyclone over the Canadian Arctic. There is such a thing as a path made by a cyclone which is usually followed by another, is like space time planetary physics, where a planet transforms space and time by its gravity, the planet groves a space time valley. But what was meteorologically "crazy" is that the cyclone path or valley was made in in December, grooving a piston chamber where the path was taken again and again by dozens of cyclones. Almost never interrupted by chance , such as caused by weather variations. For this to happen there must be a sable thermal dynamic heat engine infrastructure in place, which was/is warmer oceans and lesser sea ice, the cold and warm sources didnt move. but still some thick sea ice is needed in order to make the heat engine work. This is not the future of weather, this is what the weather looks like when sea ice thickness of old is almost all gone. Will write soon of more sea ice news, this season is not at all like spring of 2014. Even though the details seems the same , there are dramatic differences. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin, I would tend to believe less movement during the summer of 2013. But more loss of sea ice in the North Atlantic sector during the same period. But 2014 summer melt had greater open water in Arctic ocean Gyre area , the traditional place where pack ice is thickest.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
take it this way, this years max is old news before it becomes news. But it is good to wait for an official pronouncement. The best thing to do while we wait is to differentiate 2013-14 with 2014-15. After all last year's ice was about the same extent when it went the other way. There is likely less sea ice thickness than March 2014. Does it make sense that less sea ice extent is coupled with greater average thickness?
Toggle Commented Mar 15, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
I agree Kevin, it is time to see what will happen, but also test our skills. Many here try to predict what will happen in September while it seems very hard to do 2 weeks. Hi Jim , click on images turn to blank!
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2015 on PIOMAS March 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
these latest are sea ice shoreline gains, not quite unexpected, the SST's where there is the greatest potential extent advances are simply too warm. Baffin Bay is the one to watch because it was quite cold over the winter and I suspect a lag in its descent in extent. The Cold Temperature North Pole is weakening over Hudson Strait and a new one is showing over Alaska, this changes the configuration of the Jet stream substantially. The huge Atlantic Arctic vortex heat engine is finally fading. Check out the very warm temperatures much throughout Midwestern North America, the cold air is vanishing fast in the South.
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
75 degrees north latitude of course
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
interesting discussion about albedo, however sea ice absorbs sunlight @75 North altitude when the sun is 3 degrees above the horizon. Perhaps the models need some tweaking.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
"What is the net heat budget for open water?" There are many factors, especially the temperature profile of the water column. But basically it goes like this, there is a threshold when sea water freezes , if top of the water column is very warm the necessary surface temperature to freeze the sea surface must be conversely very low. I am sure there are models out there, but they are hard to find. Essentially a sun less tan 1 degrees elevation at noon marks where ice freezes massively fast, it may be lower much lower than 10. I have dealt with the basic difference between 2013-14 and 2014-15 freeze-up , in part on my blog, there was a by-continental Cyclonic feedback loop which didn't happen as much in 13-14. There has been a uninterrupted stream of cyclones from Florida to Novoya Zemlaya by way of the UK. They morphed and formed a vortex centered about over Greenland forming a continuous corridor of cold air from central Russia all the way past Ohio. This circulation stream was very stable. This feedback vortex was and is like a mega heat engine. 13-14 had no such corridors or vortex even though the term "Polar Vortex " was made popular then. During the same time periods leading up to this all time low sea ice extent, 13-14 had frequent High pressure anticyclones positioned either by sea of Barents and also over the Canadian Archipelago. They in effect blocked any mega-vortex from forming like in 14-15, they cut off the possibility of a mega Vortex feedback loop, in other words no steady heat engine flowing warm moist Air to the Arctic Atlantic. The weather systems were heavily influenced by this years mega Vortex circulation pattern. But it is and was remarkably steady. Cloud covering much of the Arctic Ocean thus weakening ice accretion which was stronger in 13-14 because the sea ice melted in place by minima of 2013. The anticyclones covering the Arctic Ocean more often in 13-14 were caused by such a melt.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
As he Max seems obvious, I watch with interest Being Srait sea ice because it is now largely a duel between colder very clear air (for a change, may be temporary) and the noon sun more than 20 degrees above the horizon. Its a litmus test for the coming melt season. If Bering is at maximum this means that SST's there will cause an early blitz melt by the extra warming of a very large area usually covered by sea ice. The sun at 20 degrees does not allow easy freezing over a wide area but near shore, probably? However the required SST of -1.8 C is not observed, even with surface air temperatures are about -20 C new ice will not happen. Open water is easily maintained with the sun so high above the sky. I cant't recall any big freeze of wide open sea water when sunray's are so strong at noon (this includes the whole of Hudson Bay in November/December). To finish this off is the North Pacific sea current, if it is from the South . the maximum is double done.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
The Arctic Atlantic front is lost to the real warmists, the onslaught of southern in origin cyclones, ongoing since at least December. I agree the place to watch is the North Pacific, there are a couple of factors missing for a late freeze up blitz, the entire state of Alaska, quite amazingly warmer, the sun 20 degrees high in the sky with the circulation flow almost always from the South. So it dont look good there as well. Mad as it seems the maxima looks done.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
There is also the North Atlantic Cincinnatus, the entire winter had relentless warm cyclonic intrusions , as I posted: : http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/ It is still on going. But I digress , "But they melt out in May anyway" opps a logical error, no ice means sunrays directly warming the sea surface, until May, a significant warming impact . The corrector is corrected.
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2015 on Thinner and thinner at Arctic Sea Ice
Global sea ice extent has been a very misleading argument favoring the "business as usual" tunnel vision gang of deniers for a long time. The Arctic is very dissimilar to Antarctic in almost every way. The Poles are incredibly different, the South Pole is a covered land mass buried by a huge amount of glacier ice and has a surface altitude of 2835 meters ASL, the North Pole surface altitude varies between 0 and 10 meters above sea level having a warm sea instead of relatively very frozen huge glacial mass just below. Moving Southwards or Northwards with respect to the Poles is even more drastically different. The well known Polar atmospheres reflect topographic disparities quite thoroughly. So Kano, what is in any way the justification of adding these two differing regions data as one? The ball is in your court. I suggest you start by destroying this premise,: A warming Earth will affect each region in its own way-.No , you cant posit a warming Earth will respond in a homogenous bland linear temperature increase everywhere, the planet is not a blue marble.
Toggle Commented Mar 2, 2015 on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, Cincinnatus is just taking a break from correcting the deluge of errors on WUWT site. I dont think that Neven's original presentation had anything wrong, as he published 2013-14 data numerous times before. 2013-14 melt seasons were more complex to understand therefore impossible to explain to dimwitted deniers.
Toggle Commented Feb 26, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, You have to consider sea ice as part of an holistic system, the North Atlantic storms, battering and melting sea ice, exist stronger and more numerous because there was less sea ice at minima in the same region last year, as well as because there is a warmer Atlantic and Pacific. The result of this changes the weather in a very predictable way. WUWT base may be in California, I guess these guys have a rough winter, proving that there is no Global Warming and that sea ice extent plays no role in the greater weather systems. :)
Toggle Commented Feb 20, 2015 on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Well Jay , RRR is not an easy thing to understand unless you know where the coldest air is, from that point everything is clear. Remains to explain why the coldest atmosphere is not moving much, just like the RRR, and this I do http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/
Toggle Commented Feb 18, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
The newish downward trend in sea ice extent goes back to the "santa storm" , a much forgotten event in populated areas because it caused rain instead of 3 feet of snow. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/ Nevertheless there is a link between the heat it brought further North and less Sea ice extent. There hasn't been such a strong storm heading Northwards, but several smaller ones, not as warm, but enough to burry Boston. Al were and are l heading to the same Arctic locations. However none so massive as seen during recent twilights. Darkness has set at the return of the sun.
Toggle Commented Feb 13, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
The dynamical meteorology change in the Arctic is rooted in Global Warming. But does not necessarily give the appearance of warming at times, especially in the summer, what is key to remember is extent numbers reaching all time lows at times during the yearly cycle. When this happens, it is an indication of the potential for ever more greater minimas. PIOMAS volume changes does not reflect this potential, rather gives trends as a result of mostly summer weather dynamics ice pack expansion not compaction. This season so far had great influxes of warm cyclones from North Atlantic Northwards affecting roughly half of the entire Arctic Ocean pack, I suspect the volume less then projected, and I am not surprised if PIOMAS may be off. If you manually drill sea ice in a very small area there can be significant differences in thickness. So any model not having a 1 meter resolution base would give erroneous results. "Arctic-wide thickness losses are more difficult to document because of the sparse sampling in time and space. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/04/arctic-sea-ice-volume-piomas-prediction-and-the-perils-of-extrapolation/comment-page-2/#sthash.ifiqdF6B.dpuf" Using the scant buoy data itself to integrate actual sonar ice depth gives the same problem as with manual ice observations. A possible work around would be to actually scan a wider area of sea ice thickness before placing a buoy, in the hope of having a better representation of an ice field. But I think we need calibrate ourselves with some aspects of ice data as presented, which is compare extent, likely JAXA with respect to Piomas, if the extent is near all time low (like now) and Piomas trends the other way (like now) , there should be a bit of skepticism with respect to the PIOMAS volume projection.
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice