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wayne
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Reduced compaction seems the new summer normal Neven. It is a lot to do with a warmer Arctic, where there is a lack of temperature contrasts and apparently steadier persistent cyclonic activity. This is why I would like to see long term model animations. Because I can't fathom a summer dipole like 2007 or 2012 to reoccur often. But as warm and cold temperatures are now clashing, a dipole is more likely. And this is where their might be a surprise steep compaction if the dipole develops strongly. If I think correctly sea ice will eventually vanish completely during summer more without motion, melting in place, rather than pushed around and compressed.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
Well done Neven, Late in season biggest most important factors for further melting until minima are ice thickness and sea water temperatures (closely tied to sea ice temperatures). SST's are very warm in the Pacific sector from the Pole, very warmest as usual on the Atlantic side. The core ice pack is likely very loosely consolidated, august 22 2015 EOSDIS gave a glimpse in the Russian sector from North Pole: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),Graticule,Coastlines&t=2015-08-22&v=-1833664,-814528,1809728,848448 So any extensive compaction, i.e. Arctic Dipole, would further and dramatically reduce Extent surprisingly rapidly. There is also El-Nino twinned with North Pacific warm sst's. Which will likely delay the minima date by a week or more. I have patiently waited to see anything which would make 2015 exceed 2012 minima, and announce it daringly. But the new melt season circulation pattern, warmer Arctic Ocean more cyclonic activity. Especially revealed during 2013 melt season, this counter Arctic Ocean Gyre circulation has persisted again this season, and will make me wait further. However, 2015 will easily be in 2nd place, with a good possibility to surpass 2012 even from this late date.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
Warning to all fake skeptics, especially to those who read them at WUWT, here was example of vast non knowledge presented, in terms of their great skills in assessing sea ice: >>>>>Neven, are you the Warden, or just the head inmate? [Snipped some of the exaggerations/insults, but yes, I'm the head inmate, and you're the paragon of rational thought; N.] In any event, the inmates here will be sadly disappointed when this year's melt reaches Wrangel Island, north of which the ice is 6 meters thick. Sorry guys, that will be all she wrote. [Of course, I'll let this one stand too, for future reference; N. :-) ] Posted by: Cincinnatus | April 02, 2015 at 03:34<<<<<<<<<< Look at poor Cincinnatus Bombed out prediction 40 days before Minima: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png outch!!! I warned him, but alas no recant, no reasoning, just bland "gut " politically motivated "feelings" jutting all over the place. I must remind that reality is blunt and unrelenting, but predictable if your feet are anchored in the practice of science……. And then I wrote Baffin Bay sea ice will melt much slower, but geeeeez , its been awesomely slow, 2015 has its own style. Much predictable by a rather spectacularly stable winter pattern.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2015 on PIOMAS August 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, we see that, also NW passage has been open for a few days on East-West side of Peel Sound depending on the winds, NE passage equally open, the melt over Beaufort is not surprising at all with ice moving above on and off warmer water. The only thing which surprises me is that many people seem bored, expecting that this will be another year like 2013-14. But CT reports -1.589 million square km anomaly for the first time since 2012, 2015 should be in 3rd place JAXA wise tomorrow, and still there is some ice in Baffin Bay!
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Remko, I entirely agree with your assessment, although small compared worldwide, it is too large to have meaning in most instances. It is perhaps good for temperature fluctuations, but over all, I won't use it for pressure cycles because a large High over say elsewhere than over the Arctic basin in the AO zone affects the index. The NAO is very good. PDO has size problems, And ENSO is mostly good.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
…. And the AO, however big region it covers is positive because _____________________ and negative because ______________________. Feel free to explain this overstated , overused not always useful and nebulous oscillation John.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill, its the forecast, and I am sure these temps have been there for a while. It is very warm. I also wonder if the dumb dumbs at WUWT -you know who you are - have figured out that some of these communities have less than 2000 people. No Urban heat Island on a huge majority of these communities. Just to stall a pre-emptive disinformation attempt.
If you get through don't forget to mention you have "seriously I have no recording devices whatsoever but speak slowly I take notes" :) Now back to sea ice: 2015 is now in 4th place JAXA wise, rapidly gaining ground on recent preceding years even though Hudson and Baffin Bay still have important sea ice coverage. The effects of winter just past cold winds from central RUSSIA to Ohio lingers on. But with temperatures like these: 1-Cambridge (not UK but the real cold Cambridge Canada) 14-15 C maximums for a week 2-Arctic Bay (ikpiarjuaq the beautiful, Northern Baffin) 8-10 C all coming week. 3- Kugluqtuq (the original place of copper for jewellery making) 17-22 C all week. Near Beaufort sea. 4- Tuktuyaktuk (gateway to Beaufort sea) 10 to 17 C all week. 5- Chilly Barrow Alaska 3 to 9 C all week because other side of cyclonic flow bringing Arctic Ocean Air. 6- Murmamsk Northern Russias and Arctic largest city 12 to 23 C for the week 7-Norilsk Central Arctic Russia 18 to 24 C for 7 days 8 Logashkino (East Siberian Sea village) 3 to 9 C…. for more than a week Bye bye coastal sea ice….
LRC, typepad disappears totally for hours.... Check out current remarkable Arctic warm temperatures. THe permanent pack is in for a very rough ride. I should be able to make an early verdict on sea ice minima once Hudson and Baffin Bay is clear along with Foxe Basin. The weak cyclone now present over the Gyre area is of interest. Jim , no surprise about A Murdoch paper recording people, either illegally (hacking scandal) or otherwise, I'd be shocked if they use notepads, apparently recording off the record comments is their speciality. I wonder why people even bother talking to them, given current freedoms to self publish. There is 0 prestige or benefits to be interviewed by slanted journalists, no matter how long the paper existed. Their like minded audience need self reinforcing dribble continuously. Otherwise the readership would vanish completely. AS long as typepad works we can sink any stink they come up with!
Jim, smells like a Murdoch hit job though. This said Dr Wadhams should self publish his opinions on sea ice retreat or to a reputable science or a proper newspaper (a species going extinct I am afraid). Never mind the side show.
US east Coast is all right D. There are a few finger lakes which look tempting to visit. I worry about Murdoch alternate stupid universe science news stories, which have very complacent or lazy readers. Chris, ya there is alot of 2012 and 2007 in this years melt, but the present look reminisces late 2014. I wait for Wadhams to explain his predictions a whole lot more than the coincidences of tragic Climate scientists deaths. Although it sure is sad to read their stories.
"Let's stick to the science" D must be in Hawaii, clear thinking as the beautiful water there. And Jim: hurray 4 u showing shoddy journalism about our subject. I wonder what would be if we did not respond to this crap. El-Nino is normal, the North Pacific temp anomalies appears not so. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.23.2015.gif Note NW Pacific and NW Atlantic parallel cold set zones. Stefan on RC theorized about the N Atlantic cold patch. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/a-hypothesis-about-the-cold-winter-in-eastern-north-america/ I believe these are temperature imprints from recurring persistent Cyclones , after time always shading the sea from the sun. All while the NE Pacific has mostly sunny dry conditions. These anomalies have had a significant impact on this years melt, less apparent than the weather in the regions affected. There is no question that these set patterns are significant for TH circulation as well. El-Nino is not strong yet, but increases cloudiness worldwide, so I suspect these cold sst zones have been amplified by El-Nino very slowly gaining strength. For the Arctic, it is still a non effect, the temperatures there are way above seasonally warmer. Chris, your latest calculations is a good idea. Except I don't believe this years melt has a similar melt signature with preceding seasons, except for 2014 1 month early, if 2014 melt continued beyond mid-september it would look a lot like this year. Safe to say that the RRR NWE Pacific ridge has started in full from mid August 2014 onwards.
Thanks Jim, these were impressive pictures. Guess how I did this….. or become state of the art refraction expert: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/05/dedicated-sea-ice-model-proofing.html
Jim, if you look at Greenland from O-buoy9 picture perspective, it was warmer on the 9th rather 13th. Didn't go to their website to check. Am I correct?
Hi Eli, there was little Arctic snowfall over winter just past: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/07/2015-major-melt-contribution-was-lack.html I surmise its importance.
Presto a cyclone will appear Andy Lee! Scheduled to do a lot of mixing on July 31. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa I had a discussion once with University Professor claiming that the coriolis effect scatters the ice more outwards, I countered the winds have a much stronger impact during a modest Cyclone. Now lets think a bit further, a strong very low pressure cyclone raises sea water, causing a sea level surge. If the cyclone is very intense, the destruction of what is left of consolidated ice may be lead the way for more compaction later.
Navegante: "robust ice induces preserving weather, so next season even more robust ice." Not quite, the extent of very resilient thick sea ice matters, so say 2015 minima beats 2012, the holistic effect of sea ice as part of Earth's climate system will be less important as a result. Size matters.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2015 on Junction June 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Kris, a Cyclone similar to August 5 2012 is likely, but its the pre- existing ice conditions which matter. "So I don't think there will be any slow-down over the next couple of weeks, as we saw with 2013 and 2014." 2013 was very special Rob, there was a huge melt in place with literally no compaction, 2014 had a blitz melt later in August which was very impressive. I have added and collected the evidence: presently: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/07/it-seems-already-time-to-pronounce-bye.html and here it is as was in 2014: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/08/7-day-ice-melt-as-fast-as-it-goes-but.html and here http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/08/spontaneous-meltdown-matter-of-ice.html However, there is no indications for 2015 to go down significantly below 2012, there was a substantial consolidation and strengthening of sea ice over the main pack during the winter just past at about the Arctic 90 degree longitude region. Remaining sea ice appears to be still quite potent, and can literally replenish itself by stimulating favourable weather patterns. When weather won't matter anymore then a yearly melt season "crash" will occur.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2015 on Junction June 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/07/it-seems-already-time-to-pronounce-bye.html My confidence grows day by day, 2015 exceeding 2012 record low minima should happen, will not wait much longer to make a non official declaration in advance, the only thing to stop this from happening would be massive clouds coverage from now on.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2015 on Junction June 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, After a swim in one of the Great Lakes really good tropical blue fresh water to avoid sharks :), I must say the water languished indeed colder, testimony to winter just past, nicely summed up this way: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/02/rrr-explained-by-open-sea-water-and.html I did expect Baffin Bay ice to be stubbornly resilient because of the imprint of a dry winter and therefore a lot of late melting in that region. Therefore all those guys who strictly judged extent, say 2 weeks ago, who commented how not so strong a melt was occurring were fooled by not considering last winter imprints. However Neven being quite a good sea ice analysts nailed it right as it happened. Must keep in mind the staggering difference between last year late August melt blitz, and the same look one month earlier now particularly in Polar sector 90W to 90E clockwise. It will be 2012 record bye bye announcement time soon. Mean time I would like to point out to contrarians fake skeptic champion Cincinnatus failing his "no ice melting past Wardle Island" , perhaps one of the greatest prediction bomb of this year. I remember reminding him that open water in Bering Strait in March is conducive to such events we witness now. Of which bombastic, bellicose and especially none descriptive predictions, arm chair stances, based on "a gut feeling" are absolutely not to be taken seriously. Which leaves me with Wadhams: "In 2013 and 2014 the volume in summer came in above this trend, but since then we have started a new El Nino which tends to increase air temperatures more. I am just staking this area out as a marker, and expect to be shot down in flames." Good to read from you Dr Wadhams! Please clarify your prediction for this year more! There is a distinction to be made, between those who think that annoying researchers with stupid repetitive prognosis or projections will flood the internet and therefore bury the gem true science sources to the oblivion of confusion.
Thanks RealityBytes and L. Hamilton. As far as we know for ASI to melt completely, at least at this stage of Global Temperatures, dynamical weather must "cooperate", i.e. very cloudy Arctic winter, and relatively clear summer weather with nearly constant hovering anticyclones over the Arctic ocean Gyre area, favouring huge insolation and compaction. If the current prediction does not recognize that sea ice melt is highly susceptible to dynamical meteorology, I doubt its a projection based on current prognosis of the cryosphere. This said , dynamical weather of before 1990, did not do much to alter the massive presence of thick sea ice. The state of the cryosphere is now dependent on weather conditions -the dynamical meteorology period- , state of affairs not directly proportional to Global Temperatures yet, but close to it. Runaway albedo feedback requires a certain seasonal cloud coverage variations at this point, but there will be a time when clouds won't form as easily when GT's will be too warm. There is also a new player on the block, strong and lingering summer cyclones, they introduce cloudier and ironically colder weather by their very anti insolation nature, along with stopping or reversing the Gyre. When the North Pole becomes ice free regularly, its the start of a new era, when GT's would be more and more influential, to the point leaving behind dynamical meteorology, just as it was in the times when ice was very thick and expansive, the more open Arctic Ocean will likely not be changed much by weather.
Hi Chris, well said, anyone here avoid Ostepop unless you have lots of time to waste. Or a contrarian flag should appear every time he posts. That is a suggestion well worth considering.
John, I think in similar ways, however AO is way to large in size. The jet stream is a creature of contrasting atmospheric densities. Many describe it as the causation, but is merely formed at the junction of cold and warmer air. Namely, the jet stream happens to be a symptom of geo-density dynamics. Therefore is not the cause of extreme weather, but rather an indicator of weather patterns. In this warming world, the jet stream will become more prevalent where it was not. Because there is less cold air, and with smaller cold air masses a more pronounced or irregular stream should prevail.
Hi NeilT, "In fact it was earlier than 2004. It would have been nice to know whether it was insolation or some other factor." Well this is indeed a very interesting subject. Barrow was kept open mainly by NW winds and a winter without great snowfall, a dry winter, snow usually helps the formation of sea ice. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/02/rrr-explained-by-open-sea-water-and.html By the very mega-system heat engine covering 2 continents, cooling North American Eastern coast, during past winter, which effects are still felt if you go for a swim in any lake, particularly the great lakes brrrrrr. Interesting to note, that much cooling in some region of the world does not equate any global freeze,, and may even give more open sea water!
Very nice to read you back John, Yes, sea ice is very hard to predict, but none of the gentlemen or group you cited are openly advocating stupid predictions, like sea ice is recovering, up coming ice age etc. I personally focus on the North Pole, truly the gateway event for Arctic Ocean becoming eventually ice free. This said, all who predict wrong must re-evaluate their understanding of the physics of Arctic sea ice. It is easy to predict anything, being correct should merit respect, especially if one is being correct many times. With respect to ASI over the main pack, I have changed my techniques to project, because I was wrong, it is essential to admit failure, this way I can find a better method. Remember we are dealing with a subject with threshold limits of days, i.e. make the summer longer by 2 weeks, and 2014 and 2013 would have been just as bad as 2012. It is the evaluation of how much "cold" the sea ice was at maxima which matters, but not uniquely. So far this season offers no great expectation of Arctic Ocean being totally ice free, again its the Pole which matters, there is no doubt this year is similar to great melt seasons. In as much as one strong Cyclone or two, lingering over the Gyre may disrupt a melting trend quite a lot, and this has nothing to do with cooling, So in recent years we have learned met dynamical impacts are very important with respect to ASI. And we are nowhere near a totally free ASI season, but there is no sign of true cooling, which is what matters most. AS far as the guys you cited, they should admit failure, and especially why they think they failed, otherwise they are not practicing science. If willing to predict, one must show the reasoning behind before, during and after the event has passed.