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wayne
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Just how is tis volume increase calculated when there is vast expansion of sea ice in well above warmer temperatures? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_07b.fnl.html I wonder? A great segment of Perimeter is expanding 6 nautical miles a day by dispersion, easily more than 2000 nautical miles long. With a wild mix of new ice, grey ice and floating snow within. This is not an average year. I'dd expect better results when we get serious about accuracy.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
When it rains it pours, recent High Arctic heat wave comes with a lot of rain , which is slimming down the 20 cm snow layer on ground, turning the sea ice tops green again, with the return of melt ponds on top of multiyear ice just arrived from the Arctic Ocean: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/raining-during-arctic-heat-wave.html Some September 9 minima hey?
Toggle Commented 14 hours ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Taak Viddaloo I don't really expect extent numbers to shrink dramatically until another method is implemented or a new satellite system is in place to measure sea ice concentration similar to Radarsat capacity of 1 meter. However I'd expect a stall in the numbers or strange variations, indicative of current sea ice action, but not descriptive. Navegante Sure is some very thin sea ice, grey ice , floating snow, a maze of complications, one way to conceive this is by sea ice mobility. The simplified view that new sea ice is expanding after an early minima fails to be realistic, but if you understand that there is expansion of sea ice extent by dispersion you'd have a better understanding of current situation, it is complicated and requires qualifications.
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/dense-pack-keeps-on-dispersing-with.html this is better...
This dispersal of sea ice of the last 3 weeks or so has been the most interesting event of the late melt season, if you thought the densest pack ice ice area would freeze and stabilize by now, you would be wrong: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/09/asi-2016-update-7-minimum-time/comments/page/2/#comments Dispersion is accelerating, There are 2 main physical players dominating this (that I know of), de-coiling momentum of the densest pack and the persistent presence of same direction winds pushing the ice Northwards away from North American side.
Listen at Multiyear ice melting, from sea ice just arrived from the Arctic Ocean densest pack: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/late-september-heat-wave-747-north-95.html Right in the middle of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, right now......
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, lol times a million: "If it wasn't for the entire cryodenialosphere claiming that the Northwest Passage is frozen solid I might be tempted to think that you could circumnavigate Banks Island in a small yacht at the moment." real idiots aren't they? Or rather comedians: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/de-coiling-of-canadian-side-of-pole.html Starting about 2 weeks ago a massive invasion of broken multiyear ice came through, of which you can see what they look like here: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/vast-expansion-of-scattered-sea-ice.html of which if they would bother to read weather charts, we are experiencing all time high temperatures, despite this invasion, especially since yesterday, the tropopause jumped from 8.5 km to 12 .5 km with a density weighted temperature of 260 K, 10 Kelvin above average. Summer temperatures. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.html hahahahaha ! no its sad, the idiots are taking internet space to propagate themselves.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
"So with the very low compactness of 2012, how is that 'very compact'??" Look at the charts, can't help it if you don't look "And the lower compactness in 2016 for the past couple of weeks still cannot remove the extra ice, as area is higher as well, and the volume.." I agree, especially with the water between ice pans counted as sea ice.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
John Look at the ice charts of September 2012, very compact, and or my latest comparisons with 2012 in the densest areas of both respective years. There has been huge dispersive weather, a reverse dipole circulation pattern during the last 2 or 3 weeks, noticed it?
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi AbbottisGone 2007 and 2012 needed favorable weather on top of higher melting temperatures to be what they became. 2016 started with low Maxima, that is it, with lower maxima (when extent matters more), whatever weather happens won't mean sea ice melt variations. Ironically 2007 needed thick sea ice to cause the mega long lasting dipole. 2012 was a bit foggier, say in between 2007 and 2016 types, but needed favorable weather as well. 2016 sea ice was doomed at the onset, if low maximums are the norm the favorable weather patterns for melts will be not necessary for repeat great minima records.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
And someone should tell NSIDC that 8 X 8 is 64 not 48.......:( https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/data/terminology.html
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Comparing 2016 extent with 2012 is a fallacy, looking at the densest areas of both respective years helps explain that. A pure concentration metric would be more proper. Extent numbers only have a value in explaining the slighter cooling more spread out sea ice may give. Even though this was the case in 2016, despite all factors favoring less melting, the numbers are big, which implies a threshold factor of needing favorable weather has been exceeded. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/2016-is-dispersed-melt-season-with.html Extent numbers may be used when no dispersion happens, this is not the year.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Viddalloo GPS calculation of more than 6 nautical mile displacement a day: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/snow-or-grey-ice-or-mix-of-both-rapid.html Would suggest lack of consolidation and difficulties in differentiating between sea ice and slush. If memory serves, frozen pack ice moves on average 2 nautical miles a day when its fast.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
A challenge would be to find out differences between floating snow, grey ice and new sea ice: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/snow-or-grey-ice-or-mix-of-both-rapid.html See if you can tell the difference. Floating snow areas may be huge, may last long in below 0 surface temperatures. May be someone has thermal images and can differentiate better.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mykehnjYlSo look at Polar Bears looking at cruise ship tourists and also for the Lord or Viscount or whatever not becoming of the Royal court, fresh beach ridges!
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim: " The evidence comes from various sources, such as beach ridges in northern Greenland, never unfrozen today, which show evidence of wave action in the past. One Danish team concluded in 2012 that 8,500 years ago the ice extent was “less than half of the record low 2007 level”. A Swedish team, in a paper published in 2014, went further: between 10,000 years ago and 6,000 years ago, the Arctic experienced a “regime dominated by seasonal ice, ie, ice-free summers”." In general, Northeastern Greenland is often open because in summer is far warmer place than Northwestern Greenland. Very big beach ridges can form all over the Arctic shores within less a day, I've seen a few over the years in Barrow Strait, well before Barrow Strait was a playground for huge 1100 passenger luxury cruise ships : http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/new-rules-for-arctic-cruises-1.3767846 A note when surrounding Polar Bears on an ice pan with zodiacs, Polar Bears have claws bigger than largest adult human fingers, can swim like olympians , they can jump from deep under water on a piece of ice floating 1 meter above sea level, and eat rubber (they ate part of my zodiac ) Good thing they didn't try to get close to walrus.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
The big test of current Arctic Ocean pack ice condition will come in a few days when general circulation picture will flip around to a a major Cyclone just North O central Russia causing most winds to be opposite to current directions, I suspect some big surprises will come.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/05-c-cloudy-weather-melts-submerged.html Yes floating/submerged snow saga continues.
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Unless the remote sensing people compensate for floating/submerged snow by SST temperature compensation, there should be wild variations in extent/area. I with Polar bears :( ! noted that thick layer floating snow melts rapidly with surface air temperatures just above 0 C. By extrapolation, sea ice extent numbers may vary a great deal with extensive snow showers covering wide areas and subsequently either greater winds or just above 0 C weather. Bill, the larger question is Who is Tamino? He can't be a french near genius mathematician not having his morning croissant at times? We will never know, but he is still greatly appreciated. Like we love beautiful Paris, but can't never know how it was made with some of its rude Parisians :)
Toggle Commented 6 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
very much in agreement D I am keeping an eye on the evolution of our local submerged snow. if sst's are too warm (-1) snow doesn't melt, ice doesn't form. Any change in air temperature up or down may increase sea water extent or start a freeze-up, right now clouds keep the snow steady floating just under a small layer of water. Note to JAXA people, a way to differentiate submerged snow from sea ice is to use temperature signature profiles, submerged snow may give a temperature signature same or close to open water, unlike new ice taking the temperature closer to surface air.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Ghoti20 Winds are cancelled between broken pack ice, yes, heat is no longer released but also heat is kept under. If this happens on a larger scale, there should be cooling, similar to effects of new sea ice, at the moment sea water is too warm to form sea ice. The snow layer on top of new ice is what matters for reducing sea ice build up. Moisture becomes important for that reason, at present over all Arctic atmosphere is very moist now. Will show the link for that later.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/jaxa-density-jumps.html JAXA density daily jumps are very interesting, could it be from snowfall?: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/vast-expansion-of-scattered-sea-ice.html Or something yet to be discovered.
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim Yes that is true, but I rather think Kevin's remark was "cryo-correctis", besides I am rather intrigued by what I see on JAXA, white solid pack one day, expanded nearly correct interpretation the other, then back to denser white pack the next day. Love the JAXA work (despite limitations) for many reasons but this is also strange behavior
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
A denier would love calling more sea ice when there is in fact less. Unusual mistake for Tamino. Speaking of sea ice calculations, it seemed very strange to have more extent expansion without a prolonged break resulting from over expansiveness (which brings out open water numbers). Until someone mentioned snow, and voila it snowed here and likely everywhere in the Arctic, after all there are at least 3 cyclones with lots of clouds: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/vast-expansion-of-scattered-sea-ice.html
Toggle Commented 7 days ago on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Kevin "The most one can say is that the area of the pole hole is relatively small - but it *still* biases measurements high today vs yesteryear." It looks more dramatic if you have a cloudless window and zoom in 20 or 10 Kilometer resolution. The replication images presented often shows a smudge sometimes more, in and out hole appearing disappearing The puzzling aspect of the bias is the expansion or dispersion of late would or should eventually be enough to bring out numeric decreases in extent. I have an example in waiting,
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice