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Hi D, Is like living in the desert except the sand is frozen water, never ending blue skies, worse than 2008. Surface temperatures are more than 7 C above average, soon to be 12 C above. This is not good for Greenland. Sea ice is colder than this progression in surface temperatures, it lags behind, being a heat sink during the day and a big mirage maker during the midnight sun. There is some fog, but it is fleeting, the air is too dry by a few percentage points, just enough to make the fog vanish.
Toggle Commented yesterday on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
oops Jim did u check amazing discovery about 2015l thermistor this time I suspect it fully functional within correct specifications.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The most amazing now event is of course the Beaufort Gyre persistent Anticyclone, perhaps going on 10 weeks, I lost count, picked up lots of data though, just like 2008 its been sunny every day except for one or two near huge cyclone encroachment. I deal with this now event and its future course :
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on EGU2016, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
Looks like upcoming great export of sea ice through Fram Strait not counting extra sun rays hitting the ice surface when Arctic Ocean should be almost completely covered by clouds, ice fog and ice crystal showers.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
JIm , We will see many anticyclones over the Arctic Ocean not necessarily as steady because open water "attracts" cyclones. GFS and ECMWF has anticyclones every day there. Did u check out 2015l thermistor 31 amazing measurements?
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
For those hard core sea ice students: There may be a first Optical prime rule, very practical for navigation and or especially for understanding sea ice thermal physics.
D, there is no "6 week cycles" at all this year, but rather now a 8 week big blue event of never ending sun over the Gyre area. With solar rays 30 degrees elevation the melt has started. Wherever the -cryo- is left in our sphere dictates whether there will be anticyclonic activity. It takes cold air, clear skies, a cold geographic base, a warm upper air and favorable circulation to ensure a big blue. Which unfortunately allows more solar radiation to melt the ice earlier. Usually ice crystals and widespread fog slow the start appreciably at this tine, but when it is also warmer from a weak build up of winter, the temp dew point spread narrows less. To top it off, the North Atlantic and Pacific have lost a lot of steam for cloud making.
Annual spring projection done: I was late because 'big blue' event is on going, extremely strong and consistent, the Beaufort Gyre High repulses all cyclone comers, it is also quite rare when cloudy here. This year is by far the worst case scenario since I've been doing my website in 2001. There is a huge difference with the last 'big blue' 2008, we have less sea ice and the winter past was extensively warm . Here we we go, yet again, another summer of nail biting awaits. I see only one thing saving the ice, if circulation goes as foreseen, the Arctic Islands will keep some from melting further South.
Nice work Neven! Snow on Alaska's North shore is particularly effective if it is freshly fallen, not old standing battered by the sun, there is a huge difference between the two. I have captured this a few days ago. Will do something on this perhaps tomorrow. The Beaufort Gyre High usually repels incoming Cyclones, they last a while near the Arctic coastal shores, it usually snows when present there. Without fresh snow falling, the melt would accelerate very fast. A fluffy snow layer is incredibly effective in stopping any warming or melting.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
The ice horizon announced this heat wave well before it arrived. It was marked by a prolonged, longer than all previous records, continuous lower horizon. It also goes like this, the coldest atmosphere agglomeration has shrunk dramatically dragging straight North Cyclones usually dedicated to the UK and Ireland. The coldest air never garnished enough depth on land and sea ice, so summer will come early everywhere.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2016 on Greenland under early pressure too at Arctic Sea Ice
If ECMWF forecast is right, that would mean 30 days in a row of mostly sunshine for a great part of the Arctic. Its big blue time, but unlike 2008 it will be warm big blue. I wont be surprised if this year will have the earliest appearing melt ponds in history.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
Last few days was the greatest heat injection from the Arctic ocean ever observed by the new horizon refraction method. It was observed by the horizon lowered for many more hours than previous seasons. The reason is highly likely the snow layer gaining some air by its sublimation, in other words, the snow layer is warming up with warmer air, especially the much thinner ice below and also relentless sunshine, I was also quite surprised by the steep gain in temperature just aloft as well. On top of that the models are forecasting big surface temperatures gains remaining steady for at least a week. good model! look at the incredible warming everywhere. They must rely on Long wave radiation output. Bill, Would love to "put to the test" the other formulas.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
Phil, That formula does not work too well, but gives a rough approximation. Jim, Mark 2 days ago the beginning of heat injection from the much warmer sea ice, I expect a noticeable surface temperature boost. 75 North The snow surface structure has now small ice covering at night, and it appears more expanded, breaking open at noon. 23 days in a row of mostly sunny days, yes it is indeed a desert in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
Warmer temperatures, lesser sea ice and greater snow cover are the main features of this beginning of the melt season. I deal with thicker snow cover issues here: The very latest more normal seasonal temperature readings are not a surprise and may be temporary.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
Navegante, This may be a matter of graphs which cover the entire Cryosphere, there has been a great amount of snowfall early this past winter between October and November. John, Background is the right term, my background is literally the Arctic right outside, which more than 30 years of meteorological observations in the Arctic, nice experience for a meteorological observer. There is no solid well versed science without myriad observations, there is no scientific theories that I know of which don't require a confirmation of sorts. My biggest discoveries or theories came about by extensive data collection first, the opposite process of most scholars, the experience eventually percolates to a realization . Instead of theorizing from well accepted physical models (which are artificial constructs, especially like the AO) , I transcend ideas from living through the real model in situ. Papers are nice though, for instance Toxophene fallout from Southeast Asia is common here (from science papers). Therefore cloud seeds from overshooting tropical CB's is the next logical step to conclude that there is a Tropic to Arctic fallout process. I prefer my peer being the future , because there is no tougher reviewer or peer than the observations yet to be written from a reliable source, writing papers is good but time consuming, is a gig for others to do, and sometimes I join them. But I much prefer writing discoveries directly (my web pages) to anyone who has an interest in Atmospheric science or really deep cutting edge optical physics.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2016 on 2015/2016 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Navegante Yes, big blue , you remember it well, it was 2008, nothing exactly repeated that spring yet, but this season is very close. April will confirm so. Every Arctic spring has its own style. This years signature is with greater snow cover (along with record warm temperatures and extensive cyclonic penetrations). Warmer temperatures and more open water is what to expect during a very strong winter El-Nino. 2016 Arctic spring skies turned blue very quickly. In part by the North Pacific and Atlantic sst's cooled by greater multi cyclonic cloud coverage lasting months, and the sudden further warming from the sun of an already warmer Arctic atmosphere. 2016 much thicker snow cover is also very interesting, it slowed ice accretion but delays direct exposure of sun rays to sea ice. Sublimation will eventually, open up the snow like stretched open cloth fibers, this will start happening in about 3 weeks. I would expect a very accelerated melt because the sea water under the ice was spared a greater loss of energy. Especially if 2016 big blue continues, and by all imagery available there is no expansion of cloud cover in any Arctic quadrant as usually should be in April. That was 2008's main feature, 4 weeks cloud free following a March likewise, the relentless sunshine gave very early melt ponds.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2016 on 2015/2016 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, These are observations like your AO data (care to show papers on how AO going all the way to the Great Lakes can be taken seriously for the Arctic?), far better than papers, the data is in the sky. In March just past there was 3 weeks of solid clear skies, along with very few apparent tropopause cloud condensation nuclei. The last time trend toward La-Nina in spring was 2008 (and certainly 2012) with similar Arctic clear skies periods . THese can be also observed daily on HRPT satellite products. And its simple to understand, EL-Nino peaks coincide with greater # of thunderstorms world wide. But in particular the Anvil CCN overshoots past the tropopause in the equatorial Pacific spread all over the world including the Arctic, hence fallout from El-Nino Cumulonimbus creations create more clouds. The opposite holds just as well, when La-Nina is trending, there is usually a remarkable more prominent absence of clouds in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2016 on 2015/2016 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
The biggest player shuffling the Arctic climate deck is ENSO. At this time there is a full blown trend towards a La-Nina: Truly at the wrong time of the year. The result is less clouds in the Arctic mostly covered by more snow. As expected, clear skies even in March favors sea ice accretion, but soon this will change, the biggest factor of this season is the greater snow cover in some large parts of the Arctic Ocean area. This slowed accretion a great deal during darkness, but also increases it in the spring when the higher sun would have done otherwise. I expect a sharp decline of sea ice extent when sun elevations are high enough to rip open the snow insulation. That is a coming crucial moment for this year. The steeper the trend decline in extent the greater the melt.
Toggle Commented Apr 1, 2016 on 2015/2016 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
This may be the melt season when the worse case scenario happens, a lot depends on ENSO turning La-Nina fast, and there seems to be some strong evidence so: 1- The maximum peak to melting trend is stalled 2- Less clouds over the Arctic 3- High pressure anticyclone hangs up over the ocean gyre What is to come if these trends continue 1- A rapid drop in Extent right after solar warming becomes prominent 2- Many melt ponds appearing at an accelerated rate 3- And a greater flushing of ice through Fram Strait Remains to be seen whether we will have an Arctic dipole, there is always a possibility of cyclonic persistence when sea ice main pack shatters open.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2016 on PIOMAS March 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Right Jim, Hope that they can work at it some more, it is very valuable information, lost, especially at this crucial time. I would suggest checking the string or thermistors in and above snow in situ, a temperature change of 1 C in 2 meters is a huge event! Remember this is winter, not road asphalt but snow, I suspect a proper above snow sequence would vary .1 to .3 C with respect to surface temperature. Underwater is also so important, there seems to be a lot of progress needed yet. Which buoy is the best -state of the art - ? in your humble opinion :) Also how dependent are systems, say the models, with buoy data?
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2016 on PIOMAS March 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John, No, but look carefully at this graph: The temperatures are jagged mostly within water and air. Very hard to accept that this is correct. The temperatures above the ice vary enormously within one meter. That is also the stuff of papers , usually air temperature above the ice varies very little with surface temperature. Make a calculation of one trend dropping or increasing 5 C per .25 meters. that means 20 C/m lapse rate or 20,000 C/km!
Toggle Commented Mar 22, 2016 on PIOMAS March 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, Recent Barrow mass buoy equipment seems to be giving a renewed effort in measuring air and snow temperatures: I dont see the crazy snow warmer than 0 C readings for March 20. And on top of that the sea ice core temperature is very warm! As I have observed over Barrow Strait. But I don't think they have snow and surface temperatures quite right yet. Its better but not accurate. My observations clearly make it that snow and top of ice temperatures should be equal or colder to air at this time of the year. Its close but no cigar.
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2016 on PIOMAS March 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
The drop may be in part due to snow floating on sea water, there is plenty of snow cover and snow fall throughout the Arctic, the only thing which may make the snow melt is warmer surface water in the seas at edge of the greater pack where the snow is much colder than 0 C. .
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2016 on Mad Max 2: The Arctic Warrior at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, Piomas sea ice calculation should be thinnest, as observed optically on March 7 and 9. It is the thinnest ice, and therefore warmest ice core on record ever captured since spring measurements started in 2010. Under ice First Melt happened March 7 over the NW passage, the earliest observed beating 2012 by 10 days. Hold on to your fur hats, this thin sea ice will rock the world to look up Northwards.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on PIOMAS March 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
We need a model, yes more specifically a sea ice core average temperature model, only Jim may be able to say if sea ice is essentially warmer than previous years, Even more complex, core temperature of multiyear ice would be key.
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2016 on Mad Max 2: The Arctic Warrior at Arctic Sea Ice