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Thanks John, there is something amiss when extent goes down and area rises. It could very well be that melt ponds are freezing. That would be a suitable explanation, but it happened at warmer surface temperatures, note buoy 2013f, there is a picture showing snow floating on water, I doubt they measure things to the meter square, but snowfall on water does this to CT sensors, I proved it a couple of years ago. If extent drops it means the ice has melted or compacted but certainly not scattered. For area to increase simply means more ice. It can't be because its more compacted, there is a small chance that scattering may increase its value, but I find it a difficult concept, it would mean that more than 15% ice moved into wide open water, however the catch is that extent would increase when area does so due to winds or currents. Back to 2013f at 16z today the surface (2 meter ASL) temperature is -.5 C while the very first thermistor measures above 0 C so it isn't ice on ponds. At least for known measurements.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
If you consider there is about 20,000 km of sea ice coastline next to open water at this moment, if 1 km of it thaws (a reasonable melt). There should be about 20,000 km2 of ice melt a day, of course this reasonable estimate is contrary to a 36,000 km2 increase in area by CT between July 27-28. So the numbers given must be taken with a wide grain of salt. They seem to be an approximation but I think better surveying can be achieved.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
John, with the North of Equator Pacific sst's becoming one very warm zone, the clouds are bound to take over strongly soon, this means extra heat by advection and cloud cover. The cooling seen now is from clear skies, quite normal, but the influence of heat to clear skies is waning in its place there will be a lot of cloudy days. I have noted for weeks a great disparity between Jaxa and Cryosphere Today data. Often when Jaxa extent drops CT Area goes up! Using July 27-28 as an example I think that CT has a problem with clouds and the Europeans not so much. So given the near certitude of expansive cloudiness to come hold on to your hats for a little rocky roller coaster ride. But of course cloudy warmer weather implies a later onset of minima day.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
Well done Neven, However as ironic coincidence goes, CT July 25-26 area dropped 160K km2! I done the same when I wrote my summer 2014 projection in April when I called for much fewer tornadoes throughout the coming season, the next day there was a serious outbreak of them. But all said and done, this year has a very low number of twisters so far. Sea ice may appear to melt slowly, but I appreciate Wipneus animation a great deal. What makes us better than most on this subject is that we have talented contributions capturing key moments. The ice over Beaufort is very fragile. Another very important point, for a greatest melt to occur the thicker ice must be separated from the pack, otherwise it is much stronger in a consolidated formation.
Toggle Commented 5 days ago on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John As you can see, Beaufort is not quite the same as last year. Equally interesting is the large ice area extending from Pole to East Siberian. Both occurring 2012 and 2013. More importantly ECMWF forecasts a strong anticyclone over the Beaufort for days: Moreover the gyre clock has not been turning back seriously counterclockwise like last year. It will be interesting, wait a week and see if your projection remains unchanged. I do not like estimating on present extent and area numbers, I think they are flawed in their own ways, they do not consider many other factors influencing a melting season. I rather would read extent and area without the 15% threshold. Just pure ice or no ice resolution of say 1 meter per grid.
For those inclined to believe this year as a melt lesser than 2013 look north of Beaufort: even if extent is larger now, a great collapse is imminent, so I wouldn't bet at the prediction network median. For those following the entire process closely, there was a time when the sun battered this area for a prolonged period preceding and influx of cyclones which slowed compaction. This sun ray energy never left planet Earth and is eating away solid ice to its present very fragile state. The more favourable dipole like weather should likely finish off what strength is left of it (the [ask appears as one sheet but it is a deception), or will it be another cyclone like August 5 2012 do the job?
Of course the NW passage will be open as Jim points out, the much larger passages later. Osteopop1000, odds are your predictions will fail because you don't interpret the past correctly. The "polar vortex" outbreaks of winter 2013-14 really originated from the sub-arctic, which had the coldest air over Central Quebec forcing downwards a steady Arctic flow (a vortex has a counterclockwise circulation), which even if warmer is still quite cold comparative to the South temperate zones.
Ostepop1000, "The area had one of the colders winters in memory" who's memory? I live in the Arctic, it was a mild winter permeated by sub-Arctic cold spells. The thicker sea ice in the archipelago was largely the result of colder sea water from the very cloudy summer of 2013. It gave an earlier start to winter, but not at all the coldest.
Consider the conservative estimate following Sea ice Areas as all gone at minima: barents 20,000 kara 200,000 lapte 270,000 east Siberian 100,000 (with great potential for much more) Chukchi 100,000 Beaufort 100,000 Baffin 20,000 Hudson Bay 20,000 Greenland sea 20,000 Total: 850,000 currently there is 5,227,000 Km2 If all melted 437,7000 Km2 is left not counting Arctic Basin and the vast areas of East Siberian. So I know already that this year has a significant melt. Remains to be seen if a dipole kicks in. Now is the times when weather dynamics matter, and compaction plays a significant role.
Such a nice thing to do may be helpful in understanding how the sea ice actually survives. But I am not inclined to agree with the median projection. Sea ice becomes rotten at this time of the year, its like a house of cards, it may hold up on a table until one card fails and then the fort appears to be made of straw. Buoy 2014b amazes, the only thing that makes the buoy stand on its ice appears to be the temperature of the sea itself. But in here lies the deception, rotten ice may survive the summer, as if nothing happened, but one blow on the cards so stacked fragile, and we have a whole new outlook to consider, a more solid forecast would be to consider sea, ice and air temperatures, mixed with so many other important parameters, it is very complex. Next few days will be very interesting, in now the peak summer temperatures which will determine how much sea water will appear, especially since pressure patterns return to a more dipole like arrangement. Certainly Beaufort sea Northwards is to be watched closely. But I think we are seeing a glimpse of a totally open Arctic Ocean weather pattern. The cyclones linger where there is more open water, which is basically everywhere.
Recent Buoy data more profoundly analyzed revealed in large part what happened during summer 2013 as presented by Jim Hunt thanks to NASA:,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2013-08-28&map=-366016,-152256,342080,186176 A very persistent cloud covered summer did not stop the melting of sea ice at all (as on August 28, 2 months from now). It simply continued less intensely. Here is what likely happened: the lack of sunshine for most of the sea ice pack slowed top of ice melting, but the weather had above 0 C weather nevertheless. This meant bottom of sea ice melting continued because of thermal transference from air to warmed ice to sea, the warming sea below the ice should have been largely responsible for a great deal of melting. However, the overall lack of warming of sea surface due to lack of direct insolation caused an earlier refreeze prompting the now known sea ice extent anomaly trend break with respect to 2012 all time minima. Flash bak to today, insolation has been very strong at peak high sun elevations on the North American side of the Pole, this is not 2013. But consider 2013 weather returning suddenly, the added heat to the sea ice has been huge, even if cloudy like in 2013 from now on, the ice extent will be lower. The heat is in the system can't be lost. However weather dynamics will continue like its 2014, the Canadian Archipelago standing out as a cooler place will eventually fade, but not yet . The North American side Anticyclonic driven solar bath will continue for sometimes to come, while the Russian side of Pole will have the opposite. A unique 2014 style dipole persists. The heat gained to sea will make this years melt great! Despite any sudden change in less insolation to come.
Toggle Commented Jul 3, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, You can be taken to task now :) . Your forecast is a model based stance which does not include dynamical meteorology. As was with 2013 , this may work most times but not always. As we know, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has more snow now than usual . Which is more part of a larger well known presence of High pressure systems being more persistent since the Spring. These Highs gave more insolation elsewhere likely contributing to current lows in extent at IARC-JAXA, #3 lowest at this time. The idea that one may take one indicator and make a projection out of it lacks the holistic approach which has likely a far better chance of success. I rather use what indicators may provide and integrate it with larger influences. So I perfectly new that sea ice in the High Arctic Archipelago would last strongest since March because of more than one indictor combining synergistically. A cold zone in the CAA in spring invites the presence of Highs as long as thicker ice and larger snow extent, it didn't mean what it implied, once knowing the greater impact of more sunshine.
Before you vote look at the candidates and see if they have any compelling differences:
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
For those following sea ice story for years, there is nothing more fascinating than seeing a melting close-up. A great deal of solar heat absorbed by the sea ice goes further down towards the sea. From that, the colder sea, what maintains the ice from total collapse, equally warms, it seems real melting is from the top first then from the bottom, a bit of a surprise. Sunnier conditions do not necessarily mean instant warming of surface air, rather a great warming of ice and sea. Warmer Surface temperatures from land by advection, accelerate the process.
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Wait till Kara Sea goes Neven … But the larger picture stems from the micro-action in sea ice: Chaos happens when the general term heat sink to sea ice shifts to the ocean.
Toggle Commented Jun 30, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
Well done Neven. It is so true, there is no "schedule" especially in the Arctic. My recent focus has been with sea ice micro-dynamics. We know more about the greenish stuff than ever, but the micro-dynamics are newish to me. I believe that the "warming" up as reported above is due in large part to sea ice columns coolest layers vanishing. So there is much less of an atmospheric heat sink now, and virtually very little cohesion in holding the ice together. A cyclone will reveal how bad sea ice strength really is. I have already captured wide variances in near shore ice movements, it won't take much to make a mess of things, similar to cyclone of August 2012, it wasn't the cyclone per say which appeared to vanish ice, it was the state of the ice prior to its arrival.
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice
LRC, sunny and mainly clear is always devastating at this time of summer. The only thing missing is strong compaction, which makes things even worse. But the thinner ice of North Pole to Russia sector is the most vulnerable being thinnest. What I look for is old leads with even thinner ice, and strong buoy displacements. There should be a moderate Cyclone hitting Beaufort sea area soon, lets see what kind of structural damage the ice in that area went through lately…
Each year has its own cliff Chris 2014 for instance has a split surface sea ice climate given structure. One sector, Pole to Russia which has had less cooling due to cloudy winter spring(unlike 2013). The other sector Pole to North America had more cooling due to Continental winter so frosty American deniers did many cart wheels on their way to their idling driveway Hummers. The two have incompatible climate conditions, one side now cloudy, Pole to Russia, the other sunny Pole to NA. The heat sink effect by sun from clear air takes time to weaken sea ice, from what I learned recently from buoys, sea ice column temperatures reaches a point where ice becomes tragically weak, temperatures in the columns on most buoys are now all close to disintegration . While the other side of Pole, thinner from cloudy winter sea ice is protected by a vanishing cloud shield, this thinner ice still melts though. The net effect is a later cliff in sea ice area anomaly. I captured some very interesting cloudy vs sunny effect on sea ice . There is no doubt that sun melts more ice at this time of the year.
Now we'll see where rubber hits the pavement. I expected sea ice next to CA Archipelago to be tough to melt. Therefore the "cliff" effect would be happening more like 2007. By all present indications, it will be as estimated, a massive melt is in progress. The only thing I didn't foresee is Kara sea being slow to melt, but it is much similar to 2007. The buoy data offers certain glimpses of the physics of the melting process. A cloudy day appears to transfer a whole lot less heat downwards the ice column. While the melting continues in the bottom. Also not really a surprise, a cloudy day has a temperature diurnal effect on the surface. This was observed optically hundreds of times. It is quite possible that these days of high sun (where cloudless), a lot of thermal energy is dedicated to warming sea ice columns, rather than the air, "in summer sea ice is a heat sink" as written by O-buoy site. So the appearance of a moderate melt at present is very misleading. One must not forget the players from the South, the 2 biggest ones: the super hot North Pacific temperature anomaly twinned with burgeoning El-Nino (sometimes stalling), create more cloud seeds but also extra upper air heat, making the creation of clouds less favourable.
Chris, being known for having made good predictions consistently is part of this science. Somehow those who always flunk are propped up just as much. It reads as a very competent projection, right or wrong the attempt is based on science, not by words based on a made up fake reputation.
Fairly good idea Blaine, but there seems to be some diurnal thermal variance coherence, which shouldn't happen by top of ice water flowing downwards on the thermistor string, the temperatures should be more in line with surface water. Can't be confirmed without a person there, hopefully by helicopter or back up kayak.
Took a stab at measuring how much ice is left with Buoy 2014b. The key is variation in temperature, as the horizon rises or drops with temperature differences between ice and air.
Yes Jim, The freezing point of sea ice at 4-5 g/Kg is about -.1 to -.2 C that would be for top of ice column. I don't have salinity in first year sea ice column graph, but if we make it linear, sea ice melts at -1.8 c at bottom, and lets say it increases by .1 C/10 cm, at 10 cm from bottom it should be -1.7 C which is .3 C below where some readings are right now: where top of ice should have melted by about 40 cm, bottom … difficult to interpret.
Well projected Chris, but it should be you that is more known for sea ice predictions at least more than Bastardi! And so many of my co-writers here, you are light years ahead of deniers, may pleasant light shine on you to educate an eager audience. buoy 2014b is just about to float I would say. Incredible amount of water on top and no real visible ice cold layer stratum left. Near by beaufort sea opened amazingly rapidly Buoy data is very interesting, 2014b has more water on top less ice in bottom, not keeping up with sensor estimates in my opinion, I'd say it has 90 CM of ice from 160 in no time at all , it took a few days only.
Neven, I don't think citing Mr Wrong Bastardi , who believes CO2 is a trace gas of no significance, does any good at all but propagating bad science. It is rather more useful to concentrate on success, for those who get it right often cited less, by coincidence, are proponents of the scientific method. I rather see this like we have been hijacked by contrarians made popular like Don Quixote. But usually in the real world, like at current World Cup, the team that looses out in disgrace does not get more attention then the finalists, most will remember the winner rather the teams who exited the contest earlier. So how come we keep on harping on the loosing contrarian team with attention deserved to winners? , Again and again? Would it be rather more useful to explore the reasons why one person or group got it right? As far as 2013 was concerned, the lessons learned was that no compaction of sea ice causes a feedback loop favouring cyclonic penetrations or persistence over the Arctic ocean, these cyclones fuelled by thinner ice or more open water (rather than less) brought a sun shield (clouds) and winds cancelling the Arctic Basin Gyre. Now this lesson,completely gets lost in the lore of contrarians, who despite dimly trying, don't have a clue about the meaning of a single season. Rather they call it "cooling", because of some misinterpreted reason they take from who knows where. The predictions for biggest melt then were wrong, because most, including myself who despite seeing the cyclonic season coming in April, did not appreciate the importance of counterclockwise winds enough. Instead of saying this guy or that model got it right, it is rather much more useful in explaining how , if wrong likewise. But why bother with a guy not accepting very basic scientific precepts? Unless he or she gets it always right, which sadly for contrarians, almost never happens, when it does, on the rare occasion they are heroes after missing the goal 1000 times, they score a fluke, so what?