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wayne
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William "the Central Arctic Basin has the same ice extent as it did at July 25th" ???? Would you care to look at NASA's most excellent images? And build up a comprehensive holistic mental construct, based on all data available. Surely the CAB July 25 was very different, but extent numbers are tricky if based on a sole source. As far as Ice free, perhaps never within the next 25 years, but very close to between 1 and 0 million at times. Any year, per chance, with a warm winter, sunny spring and summer, and cyclonic fall would do it, it is a rare combination of events. But we never discuss the tides, the very reason we still have some sea ice . With current world wide warming trends, 0 will be a regular summer time feature.
Toggle Commented 1 hour ago on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
There is good reason to hope that the forecasts for more Cyclones would be incorrect. The Trans Polar Stream is just about to be a real river carrying fluidly sea ice directly to the Atlantic, once a small ice dam of denser ice, North of Spitsbergen collapses, that will be so: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/the-trans-polar-stream-is-becoming-like.html
Toggle Commented yesterday on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Hans Indeed, that is quite possible, if sea ice has thinned and melted enough, it would simply vanish, but before that variable wind movements would make it look strange. Unlike 2013 which had some significant melting which did not show up at all on JAXA due to 15% sea ice per grid rule: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/north-pole-sea-ice-what-we-can-see-2016.html 2016 has a lot of grids just about to become 14% sea ice, while 2013 had lots of grids which were maintained just above 15 throughout.
Toggle Commented yesterday on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Cato "I wouldn't be surprised if we got >100,000 kmq drops in the next few days and as of today I can't see 2016 do any better than 2007. " Yes on the >100,000 drops, but the over all look at present is very bad: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/huge-sea-ice-area-is-on-razors-edge.html
Toggle Commented yesterday on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
And my goodness, 2008, man was it sunny then. I got hundreds more sun pictures than usual to prove it!
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Common John What to make of 2007? tisk tisk
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bingo ! D "but they aren't very helpful for predicting the details this years minimum extent, area and volume. They can help you understand multiple year trends and variations." But some people do not unfortunately think alike, so for this reason and in memory of the late show with Paul Shaffer (the real genius on late night with D L): Here is top ten reasons why the AO is a marginal, low signal bearing, incompetent prediction tool for sea ice: #1 It does explain something, it is a convenient simplification of pressure over a huge area of our planet. That is what it is mainly used for. Not for sea ice :C #2 It has to be interpreted differently depending on location and time. So predicting AO+ for June and July means cooling, for somewhere in the Northern world not necessarily the Arctic. AO- means more insolation for somewhere in the world. The same can be applied for any season or period of the year. #3 Less or more atmospheric pressure can be a destructive or constructive force for sea ice at different times of the year, so this is how AO index is not used correctly. For instance, in winter AO- including a HIGH over Beaufort area can be very destructive for sea ice, AO+ with a persistent LOW over Beaufort is a destructive element for sea ice as well., less accretion. Null is the result of its usage for predictions then. #4 – Lets say dominant AO+ is calculated to be for the summer, the logical conclusion would be to assume a cool Arctic. As is often the case, not so, in June and July a dominant AO+ may also have lower pressure in the Arctic, many South in origin Cyclones have destructive powers over sea ice especially on the ice pack shores, again AO+ or AO- may be destructive or preservative for sea ice. #5 Integration of AO index into sea ice models would give tragically confusing outputs. I am sure big computers with AI would love to be called HIP. But its better being the Tragically HIP, rock on Gordie! #6 The AO has no predictive powers over where the LOWS or HIGHS would be, it is a bland general indication index for Global circulation implications. Usually has some importance over temperatures due to the inferred trans locations of the jet stream associated with Pressure distribution over the entire Northern Hemisphere. #7 Using the AO in a very specialized way, segmenting it for every little detail per region is a waste of time, because it is better to use the actual causations of Higher or Lower pressures, ie , planetary waves, sea water temperatures, extent and thickness of sea ice and snow on ground. AO can't explain where they are. #8 A prediction of AO + or - is not strictly dedicated to the Arctic, even though the name: ARCTIC with Oscillation. #9 AO’s don’t explain where snow is going to fall during winter, snow extent on the ground has huge implications for general circulation of the Polar vortex. #10 Those who use AO as a predictive tool have to break down the weather image per region, and spend a great deal of effort explaining what a Lower or Higher pressure for a good segment the entire Northern Hemisphere has to do with their region. As often the case a AO+ or - has different meaning, depending on the real space, time and other weather factors, the latter should be more carefully scrutinized. Forcing the AO into the picture is to put it simply: quite silly!
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
those who use it,,,,, ultimately will have bad predictions
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, Using the AO for ice predictions is only coincidentally useful. Has no real value or high precision expertise in doing so. It is too big, it is clumsy by size, has huge disparities, like AO+ can have a huge high in the Arctic. Furthermore most times has no meaning, like now when cyclones are pulverizing sea ice, like now when Siberian temperatures are nearly equal to Arctic Ocean. It is not a surprise that those who you it or integrate it into their prediction model, fail.
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim , "Where do you suppose the red line is heading next?" Down Jim, down. but erratically like the continuous changing winds. Speaking of unsteady, Goodbye Waves in Fram Strait had no continuous geometry during the last three days, while the melting sea ice remained relatively in place: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/goodbye-waves-lack-of-geometric.html also 2013 had a great melt near the Pole but not measured properly thanks to the magical mystical 15% minimum sea ice per grid rule: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/north-pole-sea-ice-what-we-can-see-2016.html
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
John, Oh really? Is that why they fail ? By using the AO? They are better than that...
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Using models is OK, with a skeptical mind. The best models have verification observations, such as very capable Global Temperature models. Thousands of stations to prove them right. Some do not have anything, PIOMAS for instance. My credibility is unfortunately made by my predictions, of course which came through. Nothing serious, just reality was foreseen. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/04/2016-annual-spring-projection-made-by.html My peer is the future , not an obsessed over the AO Dane.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Your credibility is not in question, your grasp of the subject is!
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Despite what an ancient 2007 paper says, in terns of recent iceless events, thinner sea ice and much more wide open water have had a huge impact on the entire Arctic circulation system, these recent strong Cyclones are a sign of the times. There has been no equivalents when there was more ice. Yes, there has been small little cyclone spin offs born from on a larger cyclone in the past with healthier ice cap, but they dropped dead rather quickly. Now cyclones last and spin new ones, and last to spin new ones.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
PIOMAS numbers? Hoy mate, PIOMAS has had no systematic grid in site confirmation to its credit. It is a model, like DMI north of 80, like there is no Upper Air sounding over the entire Arctic Ocean, again a model interpolation for data. Being skeptical of their outputs is a healthy practice.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes and so goes another extent number shake up , once more, the prominent cyclone on the 20th had significantly different wind directions over the icescape than the current one. In fact opposite in most parts. In a matter of days! Extraordinary. There has been a new more vigorous summer circulation afoot since the great melt of 2007 and especially of 2012. This melt season is really showing it.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
With respect to horizon refraction, sea ice always offers illusions needed to deconstruct. The same applies for JAXA AMSR2 , 2013 was bad year for sea ice, and so does the numbers not say, but that 15% sea ice minimum per grid magic always is a challenge: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/north-pole-sea-ice-what-we-can-see-2016.html 2016 looks worse because it has marginally more sea water per grid.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Susan, That was a good opinion indeed! Bill, naa, daily extent numbers capture the moment, an average messes up this image. John, A couple of things, saying that there is low pressure heights at the Pole during summer is like saying there is always high pressure heights at the equator. Snow is a good topic, it varies a great deal, as was this year. The over all larger polar vortex, may be affected by where it lasts longer.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
'a whole lot'?? Ja: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 11152488 10997731 10689154 10521469 10779498 2008 2009 2010 2011 10841416 10948591 10286293 10143886 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 10133848 10844208 10580914 10283797 9993628
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
John I am saying that: over all sea ice is thinner year round, there is greater heat flux to the Arctic atmosphere year round, in summer there is a whole lot less of sea ice. Even 2013, I remember well with amazement the vast loose icescape. And that it is over all more conducive for cyclones, even in winter. There has always been a vortex or vortices, they spin around like tops, one always affects the others, a disturbance in the icescape , more open water, favours the presence of cyclones to persist longer, doing in turn their own spinning affecting the entire Polar vortex system, including the jet stream. Here is NASA's take: http://globalnews.ca/news/2893850/nasa-releases-video-of-melting-polar-ice-caps/ These guys are really good, except for one of their models :(
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
John I do science every day, you can not go on confusing without a fierce response.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes indeed , publish the same year of the greatest summer dipole with a massive High near the Pole...... 2007. The past changed quickly from that year on.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi John You seem to miss this part: "While there is 24-h daylight over the Arctic Ocean in summer, the high albedo of the sea ice cover and the low-level stratus that dominate the region mean that much of the downwelling solar radiation is returned back to space. " What High Albedo with lesser sea ice extent? On Vanishing temperature contrasts? Have you read the surface maps lately between eastern Siberia and current Arctic Ocean temperatures? The 500 mb low heights vary throughout summer, not necessarily at the Pole. they were more at the periphery of Arctic shores. The paper is very interesting but has nothing to do with current great drops in extent. You confuse an old paper with current reality.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
August 21 apparent small 28K extent drop is an illusion by cause of scattering of the lee side of sea ice shores. http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/08/compaction-vs-scattering-sea-ice.html There are 3 cyclones over the Arctic Ocean now all contributing to more scattering which does not register extent drops until the scattering thins the pack to be vulnerably broken up. This illusion would be less if extent grid thresholds were much smaller.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
They are not spawned over sea ice, right? Let us think a little more.
Toggle Commented 4 days ago on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice