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HI NeilT "The more open water there is, then the faster it will freeze at some point in the year." Correct, but if the open water is mixed with pack ice, the refreeze should be faster, but that wasn't exactly the case this season, surface air temperatures of late attest to that. The question was whether circulation patterns giving compaction of sea ice was still a requirement for a greater melt, the answer was given: no. Warmer Arctic Ocean = less sea ice = more clouds = Cyclones living longer from this wider open water = warmer surface air temperatures... We are all observing this feedback system now.
Viddaloo Hence we need to explain the difference between refreezing rapidly and extraordinary dispersion event. It is a huge mistake to claim record freezing is equal to record extent gains when it was not even cold enough for this to happen. I feel bad for those who don't understand this. I feel angry at those who exploit this ignorance.
I would be premature to expect great extent expansion without looking at the weather forecast. In fact there is a greater warming coming about, perhaps the first warm wave in darkness, one from the Atlantic and soon a huge Cyclone from the Pacific will visit the Arctic Ocean. This tops off the already warmer state, don't count on 2016 to catch up with 2012 soon...
With reference to my previous statement: "PTS Pauline of last year" sorry was PTS Patricia...
Hi Another, "isn't the patient explanation simply that of 'the measurement problem'. The measurement problem is a serious issue about how to express reality correctly. The finer scientific definition constraints designed for experts do not help. I am a proponent of the simplest expression possible, sea ice or no sea ice. A % value with respect to 100% ocean surface. There are too many definitions, easy fodder for the confusion experts. There is indeed a great need for improvement, but I don't see it coming , we are such a small group barely a candle in a storm of other issues, but yes man made entropy is messy..... Hurricane Nicole only bothered Bermuda and eventually Southeast Greenland. Onwards to nearing Greenland the Hurricane turned from tropical storm to post tropical storm. PTS Nicole did something interesting to the Jet stream, it bent and moved it Northwards. Something I have seen with PTS Pauline of last year. EX hurricane systems do something different than ordinary cyclones when entering the polar regions...
Bill, "Arctic sea ice decline is showing a pause" It may look like so, at times when no deeper explanation is sought, but overall these terms of endeavor often used by contrarian fake skeptics, are laughable. But it ain't so funny because they have huge number of followers. Patience in explaining everything well, may gain the day...
Today's JAXA milestone event, less sea ice extent today than same day 2012 along with a much slower accretion rate, strongly suggests a lamentable Arctic sea ice condition: Claiming otherwise would stretch logic to an unrecognizable level.
All of these commenters were spot on: Nice to know them a little more, and they need to be listened to a whole lot. Loved the Goodbye waves shot :), sea ice is so artistic, from space to closer up always fascinating...
Hi Viddaloo Despite what a few believe, 2016 had a very significant melt masked by the largest Arctic dispersion event I have ever observed. I also wonder if floating snow is considered as sea ice? Or whether we can differentiate snow from sea ice remotely?
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2016 on PIOMAS October 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Let us analyze this, so AO + slows down ice accretion: - Wrong , as we have seen recently it can go both ways, massive extent increase and slow down, to stall. AO- increases accretion - Wrong it can go both ways as well. The outlier years as pointed out don't seem to make a cognitive difference to John. The AO sea ice theory is a lazy excuse to justify anything without explaining or observing anything, it may coincide with its said theory, but often fails to do so. It is better to analyze with the comprehensive holistic overview, than being bland and generalize meaningless platitudes meant to confuse rather than explain reality.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
"Therefore, the general air pressure has increased, bringing overall more clear skies to the NH." hence this is why 2016 has slower ice accretion, oops! How silly!
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
Another and Rob. There is a link between everything you can imagine, less sea ice encourages longer lasting cyclones, the clouds from them slows the freezing of more sea ice, warmer Arctic Ocean reduces the extent of winter , subsequently changes the jet stream, curvier planetary waves Northwards feed more cyclones almost directly Northwards or some very warm air advection. And on and on until Arctic Ocean winter really starts.
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
Viddaloo In a few days looks like 2016 will be #1 lowest again, reinforcing long term averages as well. 2016 extent 3 days behind 2012 and not growing fast at all compared to 12.
Toggle Commented Oct 13, 2016 on PIOMAS October 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
"I much prefer looking at ice volume, like Prof. Maslowski." Yes I noticed, whichever gives the most sea ice....
Toggle Commented Oct 11, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
"You may not have noticed, but the thing that got in the way of your predicted 'greatest melt in history' this year was the AO+ conditions and the associated cyclonic weather pattern." Really? The AO+ achieved 2nd place with your largely conservative extent metrics. lol , trying to deny my prediction doesn't change that the AO is bunk null and dumb for Arctic sea ice. Secondly not recognizing there was a great if not the greatest dispersion event in Arctic sea ice history makes for a poor diagnosis, therefore incapacity to judge reality. Some day, a better metric will prove me right.
Toggle Commented Oct 11, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Kevin and Viddaloo for your contributions as well, Ha the AO, yes the famous designed temperature indicator for the good folks further South. Now we have the AO- where is the High? What does it do? Answer a break with ice extent expansion, but wait, isn't it suppose to be more sea ice? ..... There is more, when its AO+ , if by chance there is a Low over the Arctic Ocean, where it is matters, if its North of Beaufort, as we have had for weeks, this causes more extent by dispersion gains, if it is North of central Russia it causes less expansion (during same time period). Is a wonder that anyone can use this for sea ice.
Toggle Commented Oct 11, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
Today's brief Infrared North Pole glimpse courtesy of NOAA satellite: Does show a sad state of sea ice nowhere near its former not very long ago glory. The image conveys chaos before hellish icescape freezes over.
Toggle Commented Oct 10, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
2012 had a core of relatively unaffected sea ice which fostered a winter zone at its centre after the minima. 2013 revealed and introduced the new Arctic Ocean melt circulation to come with steady cyclonic presence, which appear to have slowed down summer melting, But that wasn’t really so, the failure of the popular measurement metrics largely help overlooked that 2013 had significant areas of badly broken up sea ice. 2013 autumn started cooler because of the scattering but again with a significant similar to 2012 dense pack good to start winter earlier zone. 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons continued the decline with again the persistence of cyclones, Winter 2015-16 sea ice was so thinned reducing the building of winter, allowing encroachment of South in origin cyclones to warm the Arctic Ocean in at least 5 different warm waves events especially on steroids from El-Nino. Summer 2016 melt continued again with summer cyclonic incursions briefly cut off during spring by a big Blue event which was a mega dipole driven by no Arctic clouds enhanced by La-Nina trending rapidly. But again the cyclones affected summer circulation and this is the continuing trend to come, End of melt 2016 had a very surprising mega dispersion event which in retrospect was the result of the liquefaction of the Transpolar Stream , which was a first in history. This de-coiling of densest pack ice and persistent cyclones hanging between open sea water and ice have muddled the view of how serious 2016 melt was because we largely look at sea ice extent numbers while some commenters confuse freezing without considering dispersion.
Toggle Commented Oct 10, 2016 on The 2016 melting season in images at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim and Viddaloo Nothing surprising given mini dipole with very dispersed sea ice interspersed with widely scattered broken Multiyear with thinnest first year amongst floating snow and open water combined with feedback driven record warmest temperatures .
thanks Ghoti20 Could not have said it better myself, I believe also that the very latent but imposing talent here needs live data. On many occasions we argue theory without observations. Once well informed, and also up to date with the latest sea ice news on this website, participants and especially the unknown, highly connected or not lurkers, form an impressive gathering of knowledge ready to help spread out what is happening at key information hubs. Otherwise sea ice is largely a void in the minds of many.
Navegante "DMI SST maps showed blobs of +3C SST anomalies north of 80N that were arctifacts or just inaccurate. Fooled some of us." It was possible, keep in mind the tide current etc. Another point is that open water went further than 85 N in a sector , which means a lot more warming than otherwise with ice cover. Is not a simple subject, better observe and try to explain, than to simply outright reject.
Hi Rob, "Here is one suggestion : Put a glass of salt water in your freezer, salty enough not to freeze, and then put some snow on top of it. According to you it should last, but it does not. It will melt." No thanks! got the real thing to look at, please try it , but a glass of water is not a mixed layer of layered various saline concentrations caused by time an also mixed surface sea ice objects, mixing not mixing. I believe there is only a University scaled down real model , with water ice and salt, which can replicate this. University of Leicester or Exeter UK (if memory serves partially) ?? " the top sea ice is smooth the bottom ravaged by -1 C water" as per my reference, -1 not +1 C. Measured by very accurate thermometer "The point is that water surrounded by ice (as in the heavily dispersed ice pack this year) ALWAYS cools down to -1.8 C. If it were warmer, it would melt some ice and then drop to -1.8 C. There is physically no way in which the water between the floes would be any warmer than -1.8 C given the salinity in the Arctic." Dispersion degrees matter, close close pack 2 meter gaps) does cool sea water, further dispersed much less, but keep in mind the water flows around ice pans if there is some Tide or otherwise current. By the way I still have submerged snow here to look and study directly. It is like Slush you can buy at the Quicky mart or 7/11. But has a crystalline matrix structure failing instantly once moved out, seems there is ice surrounding the snow in small clumps. When there is a lot of snow showers we can obverse it as far as the horizon permits. Refraction wise, it gives a similar but not quite same thermal structure as sea ice. I am studying this when possible and its very difficult subject given that sea surface is not homogenous most times. .
Rob, How fascinating that I have evidence to the contrary in every details enunciated, look at the links I have presented, Remember, snow does not mix with colder water, its more like brined out sea ice melting last because its melting point point is close to 0 C. You are probably thinking that its like spreading salt on snow on a walkway, but that is not the case. There is immiscible solid and liquid actually observed many times. Basic physics prime rule is observe, then explain. I also suggest the top layer of Arctic sea water is not as salty as the Mediterranean sea. "year suggests that the water was cold (-1.8C) likely because it opened up only recently and did not have time to warm up." Great suggestion not supported by evidence. : Look for -1 C sst..... I appreciate your skepticism, especially offered in such a cordial and friendly way. How refreshing. This is how science prospers.
Robert S Snow in sea water is very interesting and requires a bit more attention, remember there is drifting snow as well, well cooled and very effective in accelerating the freeze-up process, cooling top of sea water from within. I am glad you recognized the great dispersion event at minima just past, which of course makes it easier for sea ice to form, but we are witnessing something new on top of this, the extremely warm vicinity North Pole temperatures suggest it so. Something like the freeze-up is not accreting rapidly in a positive feedback partial open water fueling a persistent cyclone presence process .
Viddaloo I am patiently waiting for some to acknowledge that there was a great sea ice dispersion event.. Of the likes never seen before... Perhaps that is why they didn't really recognize it? It didn't compute in their mental history of Arctic sea ice melts... If there would be a mini Arctic dipole event, much bigger sea ice extent drop would open their eyes perhaps? I wait....