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Converting Four Factors to Point Differential

A couple of years ago Evan Zamir built a model to convert Dean Oliver's Four Factors of basketball, effective field goal percentage (eFG%), rebounds, turnovers, and free throw rate, to net point differential. Last year I applied Zamir's formula to regressed early season four factor numbers to derive point differentials... Continue reading

Posted 2 days ago at Counting the Baskets

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Do You Feel Lucky?

Small sample size theater time, those first fifteen games or so of the season, is the period of the basketball calendar that gives me the most conflicted feelings. Standout rookie performances are exciting! New off season traded players underperforming is interesting! All of which is counterbalanced by the overreactions to... Continue reading

Posted Nov 1, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Free Agent Model Check

Given that the free agency period is winding down I decided to check in on the performance of the free agency models I built. Using data from the market over the last three years I built two different models to predict the average annual valuation of the contracts for this... Continue reading

Posted Jul 27, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Summer League Rookie Updates

I couldn’t quite wait for Summer League to be over officially, run the numbers to see what, if anything, we can take from the rookies’ performance. But with the Lakers sitting virtually everyone of note for the Vegas Championship, I figured it’s over enough. (Note to the NBA: Vegas Summer... Continue reading

Posted Jul 18, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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New Celtics' Draftee Stats Compared to Peers

One way to get a sense of player's strengths and weakness is to chart them against their peers. The visual can give a more intuitive feel than numbers by themselves and it's much easier to take in information on a bunch of different players at a time. I created one... Continue reading

Posted Jun 24, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Retrodictions Are Hard: Especially About Three Point Shooting

It's been almost three years since I posted my models to predict the three point accuracy of players coming into the NBA, a post called "Predictions Are Hard: Especially About Three Point Shooting". Along with presenting the coefficients for the models, I also gave the results for some of the... Continue reading

Posted May 23, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Draft Benchmarks Compared to My Draft Model

Since I started doing draft analysis I have been interested in ways that I could supplement the data I had from the box scores and demographic data to help better predict NBA success. A good amount of this comes from scouts, including high school ranks, draft board rank, and specific... Continue reading

Posted Mar 1, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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2014 Draft Out Of Sample

A couple of years ago I put out my first draft projection in advance of the 2014 NBA draft. Now a few years gone by and I can run a preliminary test for the draft model on that 2014 draft class. The basic idea of the test is to compare... Continue reading

Posted Feb 2, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Four Factors Projections

Useful analytics at the start of the NBA season are sometimes hard to come up with. Essentially you have a choice of noting how unprecedented Anthony Davis's start of the season is or how noisy any particular stat is. There isn't anything wrong with either of those approaches, but I... Continue reading

Posted Nov 2, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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PT-PM numbers for 2015-2016

I am belatedly getting around to releasing the final Player Tracking Plus Minus (PT-PM) numbers for 2015-2016. PT-PM is my version of a statistical plus minus model, that I have developed over the last few years. I wanted to have a place to reference the numbers for future posts and... Continue reading

Posted Sep 6, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Rookie Projections Visualization

This rookie projection visualization, was originally posted on Nylon Calculus. But the dimensions on the host site aren't quite optimized for Tableau visualizations, or at least not the dimensions I am using, so I am giving it a try here to see if it's a bit more readable: The basic... Continue reading

Posted Sep 6, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Stacking Up the Celtics Picks

I went through a brief exercise to annotate the stats for the players picked by the Boston Celtics in this years draft using the same basic stats visualization I debuted prior to the draft. The added annotations bring those prospects into focus, and makes it easier to follow them across... Continue reading

Posted Jun 26, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Official-ish Draft Board

With the NBA draft one week away, I wanted to get on the record with my semi-official big board draft list[1. I can't write I told you so if I don't tell you anything before hand.] Previously I gave my take on the near top of the draft after the big two of Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, but here I want to present the whole list. Continue reading

Posted Jun 17, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Draft Stats by Position

Draft stat visualization by position In this visualization you can tab through the categories, filter by ranking from Draft Express, and scroll over to find or highlight names. Statistical visual highlights include how much Buddy Hield stands out as a scorer, Denzel Valentine as a distributor, Kris Dunn stands out... Continue reading

Posted Jun 7, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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49 Wins?

My Highly Plausible Prediction model this year projected the Celtics at 49 wins, a number above their 40 win performance last year, the initial Westgate line on them at 42.5 wins and the general consensus. I have been asked a couple of times whether I "buy" the model's number or not, and the answer to that is, of course, both yes and no. Continue reading

Posted Oct 3, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Celtics Drafted Players Data Viz

Below I have a pretty simple data visualization focused on the Celtics new draftees. The box plots are all by position to get a better sense of how the Celtics players rate with their fellow new drafted rookies. Continue reading

Posted Jun 30, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Terry Rozier Acceptance Phase

It is probably a good thing for Celtics fans that free agency in the NBA follows so closely on the heels of the draft, if only to distract them from their palpable disappointment. The collective draft let down stems from both the inability of the front office to move up... Continue reading

Posted Jun 30, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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RSCI Business: Draft Model Update

This year I added the high school consensus recruiting index rating to my draft model, which I discussed here. The prmary benefit of adding the rating is to add prior information to college performance especially for the highest rated prospects. As mentioned in the introductory post, the RSCI rating is... Continue reading

Posted Jun 1, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Draft Prospect Playing Style Visualization

I put together a big group of data visualizations using the top 100 draft prospects and data via Draft Express. The visualizations are meant to give some insight on the different players' style of play in college or Europe, as well as demonstrate some more general statistical relationships. For players, for example one can see how balanced Tyus Jones' scoring was at Duke, visualize how many more blocks Robert Upshaw averaged than anyone else or where Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ranks in made three pointers for small forwards (Spoiler: Low). Continue reading

Posted May 20, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Draft Prospect Stat Breakdown

Below is an interactive version of the stat breakdowns I made for this year's draft. The basic format is to use the standardized scores of prospects in five different categories, rebounding, scoring, distribution, and a group combining age, competition level and scouting ratings. Bars above zero indicate that the player... Continue reading

Posted May 17, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Updated Draft Rankings

(And Introducing the I-Test) I re-calculated my PAWS draft model with all of the updated data from the NCAA tournament, and just like everyone's mock draft, Karl-Anthony Towns moves up but narrowly moves misses the number one position. Basically the model puts the two big freshman as the top two... Continue reading

Posted Apr 10, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Point Guard Island: Draft Model Update

Below the statistics used to inform the draft model are graphed in standardized ratings for scoring, rebounds, blocks plus steals, distribution (assists and turnovers) and a rating combining age, consensus high school recruiting rank, and competition level. The weights mimic the model, so offensive rebounds are more valuable than defensive, steals are more valuable than blocks and age is the dominant factor in the Age and Competition rating. Continue reading

Posted Mar 26, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Defensive PT-PM: Work in Progress

I debuted my Player Tracking Plus Minus here last year as a Beta stat. Basically I have never stopped making changes and already put out one update on Nylon Calculus. In terms of writing I try to find a balance between writing up every little finding, for whomever is actually... Continue reading

Posted Mar 12, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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RSCI Draft Model

Quick post on an in process update of my draft model. Essentially I am working in the consensus high school ratings provided by the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) for college basketball. There are a couple of challenges to this, the first being that not every top pro prospect gets... Continue reading

Posted Jan 29, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Fitting Marcus Smart in the Celtics Back Court

Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports Originally post on Nylon Calculus on 1/02/2015 As soon as the Celtics traded Rajon Rondo to the Dallas Mavericks some pundits announced the move as the start of the Marcus Smart era. However, in the first six games since the trade it has... Continue reading

Posted Jan 20, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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