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Gideon Low
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I have to come to the defense of Robert Scribbler. His efforts to inform people about the broad negative effects of climate change are an important public service, and an area where most other journalism and media have failed us. Considering the huge efforts of the Merchants of Doubt to misinform and confuse, we should all be thankful for his efforts. RS, Neven, and a precious few others are critically important voices.
Gideon Low is now following Neven
May 5, 2016
Mark: You are not who you present yourself to be. At the risk of just a bit more diversion from the real topic, I want to make this clear to all readers present and future. Some of your quotes: "I dont (sic) comment technically as I have no new info, and bow to the greater knowledge of others" The default position for any scientifically minded person that is a professed amateur and relatively new to a topic of conversation is quite sensibly to accept the overwhelming scientific consensus of acknowledged experts on the topic as their starting point. Here you present yourself as such a person, but then almost immediately contradict yourself. You then even chastise others--in the cause of promoting civility, for using terms like "fake skeptic" and "denier". You even go out of your way to complement the work of this blog. But, when we read-on further, it becomes clear from your language and that this is a ploy to be allowed to present (at best) conjecture as fact. "there is still a missing link that has scientists hypothesising (sic) in both camps but still unable to prove theory by events" This is of course a very loaded statement. Here you try to establish a false equivalency with the statement "scientists in both camps". There is only One scientific "camp" on the (historically speaking) incredibly fast shrinking Arctic sea ice. The only place where there are Two "camps" is where politically/financially motivated or otherwise attention seeking charlatans repeat discredited "theories" ad nauseum in order to confuse the public. Scientific hypotheses wrt AGW have absolutely been confirmed by rigorous observation to the point where they are currently accepted as scientific fact. "I have no idea what is going to happen and I really dont (sic) think anybody else does either" After first professing modesty and difference to those with "greater knowledge", you now completely contradict yourself, professing enough knowledge to confidently imply that scientific experts have "no idea". This is VERY passive aggressive. "As the increase in temperature worldwide is generally measured in annual increments of fractions of degrees . . . This has to be weather based rather than climate based." After claiming to be a person humbly seeking information, all of a sudden you're making bold claims about what "has to be" wrt weather and climate. Worse these bold claims (as others pointed out) actually expose how little you know about the agreed-upon facts on the effects of global warming on different latitudes (or, perhaps you know, but are intentionally ignoring them). "I am not in any camp here and I would resent being categorised (sic) in any of them. It continues to surprise me the strength of opinion that so desperately wants to prove that the ice will disappear in the summer and never recover. I personally think it will but then will recover, but thats a personal hypothesis that has no more proof in fact than any one elses (sic)." Here, again, you imply Two (presumably equal) "camps" when there is no such thing. You then chastise other contributors for their "strength of opinion", and even call them "desperate" and imply a personal crusade motivation of some sort. You're again deliberately confusing political "camps" with scientific ones, when in fact only One (and overwhelming at that) scientific consensus exists. I find your rhetorical contradictions and only vaguely cloaked attempts to call attention to yourself through provocative statements just as unfortunate, sad, and misplaced as the activities of the more obvious trolls. I'm not fooled, I doubt any of our regular readers are, and I sincerely hope that any new or casual readers also see right through you. To the moderator: If this goes to far, please do remove it. I would completely understand.
[Your wish is my command - Mod]
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
"This is irrational. Lake ice does not disappear overnight. It slowly thins during spring" Oste, the concept here is very easily understood as "rational". Hopefully, boiling it down to these points makes it easier to understand: 1. An expanse of ice reaching the end of the freeze season at certain close to uniform thickness. 2. Factors driving the rate of melt conspire to melt the expanse at a relatively even rate. 3. During most of the melting, this expanse of ice holds together. The expanse then reaches the critical threshold where it very rapidly disintegrates and melts across its entire area at nearly the same time. Epiphyte has clearly already shown us one excellent example of this. The greatest impediment to this scenario is finding an expanse of ice whose freeze and and subsequent heat influx (melt) distribution is close to uniform. And what body of water is far and away most likely to meet such a condition? Why, a lake! Even a fairly big one is quite likely subject to very similar weather across its area throughout the freeze and melt cycle. And, the fact that the ice is confined by immovable shores helps to keep it intact until it is quite thin. Barring (often only localized) factors such as streams and rivers emptying into the lake, the most rational conclusion must be that the expanse of a melting lake does typically reach the "critical" threshold between intact ice and no ice at about the same time. The mobility (and probably also albedo change) that occurs once break-up does begin only accelerates finishing the job quickly and dramatically. Having myself grown-up in Northern New Hampshire, I have seen lakes and rivers very quickly go from 100% coverage to 99% clear with my own eyes. My experience is that same lakes regularly exhibit this melting behavior—more frequently when the threshold is reached during strong melt conditions. The "breaking of the ice" (whether lake or river) is in-fact a much celebrated annual event as the harbinger of Spring in many northern communities. Oste--One should be careful about throwing-around words like "irrational" when in a personal frame-of-mind that might be considered, well, at least a bit erratic. It comes-off like pure projection. It would have been much easier to pick on the likelihood of the entire remaining pack going (to use the non-technical term) "poof"--you would need only to refute the possibility of this remnant pack experiencing the combination of rapid enough melting coinciding with relatively homogenous thickness/strength. I think us "rational" readers all recognize that the larger an expanse, the smaller the chances of a very sudden transition from very high concentration to nearly none. So there's that . . . But, is such a scenario really so outlandish? Perhaps not. Even having studied this subject only as an amateur and only for a limited time, I feel confident in stating that the chances of such an event are steadily increasing. The trend is clear enough: average ice thickness is decreasing, average ice thickness is becoming more uniform (mainly 1st yr ice), and average summer melting is increasing. These are exactly the trends most favorable for enabling an "overnight" (or close to that) melt-out of a quite large remnant ice pack. Will it happen? Only the Arctic knows. Is the notion "irrational"? Far from it. I hope this is O-1000% clear(ly rational)! One last thing: I'm pretty sure it was here on Neven's blog where somebody posted a time-lapse video of their local lake melting-out in a very short period of time (I think here because I think it was before Neven started the separate forum, but I could be wrong). I'll bet somebody else reading this either posted that video or will know where to find the link :-)
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
Gideon Low is now following The Typepad Team
Aug 4, 2014