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Sarat
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Arguably we are seeing somewhat a departure from the neo-liberal free-market capitalism theology... into I don't even know what... pre WWII full blown crony capitalism, with nationalistic and fascist overtones? Just makes you want to beat people over the head with a copy of Jared Diamond's Collapse until something sinks in)). Egh, back to the arctic sea ice... is it too early to call the max?
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2017 on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Not to sound bleak here... but I think the more earth is facing climate change, resulting in more famines, more economic depression, weakened/collapsed governmental institutions, mass human migration and more war the less those affected are likely to diver resources to environmental causes.... call it a negative feedback loop. The irony of the issue that if the climate gets bad enough for minds at WUWT to change it will be to late for anyone to do anything about it, the only silver lining that maybe lessons will be learned by those that rebuild.
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2017 on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you Neven for all you have created! You leaving at this crazy time feels similar to John Stewart leaving at the peak of US election season. Enjoy your sabbatical, may all good things come your way!
Toggle Commented Nov 30, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Just checked the N80 temp anomaly forecast...!, it's warm there now, but looks like another 'heat wave' is about to turn the area solid red for a week. What will be the impact on the Arctic of the average Siberia snow cover, any positive effects?
Toggle Commented Nov 10, 2016 on PIOMAS November 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at low Arctic and Antarctic numbers it would be interesting to see the global graph, unfortunately it does not look like CT is ever coming back: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg Is there another similar resource? I'm thinking this metric would be doing some unusual things in current conditions.
That extent is almost flat today... I keep waiting for the slope of the extent line to spike up, but nothing in the forecast to suggest it will... it's definitely dramatic. Looking forward to some end of the month summaries.
Wayne you posted earlier: "Warmer Arctic Ocean = less sea ice = more clouds = Cyclones living longer from this wider open water = warmer surface air temperatures... We are all observing this feedback system now." I guess I'm still not understanding the fault in my speculation earlier.
The temp anomalies in the arctic continue to be very high this season is it right to speculate that this is due to heat released from open water? and does that mean that there is much more heat in the water around the arctic then in previews years?
Viddaloo, "loss of thickness" is not a very good term as it can be taken out of context and twisted to mean that 2016 is loosing ice thickness during the refreeze season when you really mean the ice is less thick as compared to the historical record. Yes refreeze is extra slow and overall there has been less ice in the arctic this year, and yes if the current trajectory is maintained over the current winter it does not bode well for the next melting season. But winter in the arctic is long and things can change fast. Example 2013 was the lowest previous level on average from the graph you've been sharing, but it recovered significantly into 2014. Things look bad, but we hope for the best.
John Ugh, I can be borderline incoherent sometimes, it’s my fault let me clarify my position: I was only trying to refer to the temperature not bouncing back as fast as previous years (a common trend in the last 10 years especially oblivious in 2007/2012/2008), and I agree with Cato it will drop down once sufficient ice cover is achieved. Also yes arctic is a very complex system and temperature metric by itself does not amount to much. All I wanted to point out is this perhaps oblivious relationship/ and extend it to make some general predictions: 1) In years that there is less ice average temperatures stay above average longer after the extent minimum is reached. 2) In the future as there is less ice this will continue and I hypothesize will see temperatures linger above average for longer periods past the minimum. 3) I understand the temperature (after the sun is no longer a factor) is a function of the heat content of the water. The heat content in the water will be a contributing factor in the speed of ice formation, and ice thickness. Hope that is clearer and I’m not completely off with this line of thinking. Finally yes 2016 year extent is bouncing back quite fast and my #3 prediction is not supported by extent numbers. But as everyone agrees arctic is complex, and heat content/ average temperature is just a small part of that system.
Toggle Commented Sep 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Cato, Sure, I get the physics, all I was pointing out that the current situation is unique, so far in 2016 you have consistently higher average temps later in the season than any year on record before it. This slower refreeze characteristic is of course correlated to lower minima but also to the warming world. It's part of the feedback loop -> less ice -> more heat absorbed -> slower refreeze in the fall -> less ice -> so on... The closer the arctic is to ice free the longer it will take for the temps to drop and the pack to reform.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Extent is bouncing back but man those temps are staying warm this year: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Forecast just has it keep going too: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
What a year for the arctic ice, and now it looks like the La Nina relief will not come. Another warmer than average winter may be in the cards... http://mashable.com/2016/09/08/la-nina-watch-canceled-global-warming/
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Is there a map/model showing the total ice amount, or would such a map be useful? I'm thinking we look at concentration and know there is ~50% Ice in the pixel, we look at thickness and see there is 2m thick ice in the pixel. Would a map that showed that pixel as 1m total ice in that pixel make sense? I understand things are not that simple and maybe adjustments should be made depending on how much open water or reflective ice there is as well. Right now when you consider how fast an area is melting out I feel like both volume and concentration are misleading. You look at concentration and it 40%, but it will take longer time to melt if there is 5m thick ice there or 1m thick ice. Same is true for the thickness graph with regard to concentration.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Question regarding the following ice concentration products: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif Both are Sea ice concentration maps, but the navy product is showing 50-40% ice concentrations in the center and dropping every day, where AMSR2 is showing close to 100% in the center of the pack, any reason for this?
Toggle Commented Jul 13, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sitting here thinking about the issue I started answering my own question: Compactness, as I understand it, disregards sea ice extent. For example: If we look at two 10 km^2 areas of sea one is covered in a solid 10 km^2 sheet of ice and another has 1 km^2 solid floe both would have compactness value of 1, yet we cannot conclude that sea ice conditions in the two areas are are similar.
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hey all I would like to ask a question about the CICE ice concentration. I looked at June 20 data from 2012 until 2016, see below. Not only the ice overall looks less concentrated than in any previous year, similar to 2013, there is a large balding section in the arctic basin (But unlike 2013 there is also a hole in Beaufort). https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2CAXmrYbSibaHlIeU1qa1pzb2M/view?usp=sharing Mean while the wind patterns have consistently either spread the ice or pushed it out to export. Even though above compactness measures show the ice equivalent to previous years the attached image visually looks like the pack is much less concentrated than in any year before. Is there something I am missing?
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2016 on 2016 melting momentum, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Right John, seems I have cherry-picked the steepest slope, apologies. Around this time for previous years is when declines start to get steeper if 2016 follows it will be close on par with 2012, I was wondering if that's what we are seeing. Also, would be interested to know how strong is this storm forecast to be? I remember back in one of a years a strong cyclone caused a lot of damage to the ice.
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Granted NSIDC slope did not change nearly as much.
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi_ice_ext.png
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
Sharp drops in extent in the past few days, wonder if the trend will continue with that storm forecast for the arctic next week: http://pamola.um.maine.edu//DailySummary/frames/GFS-025deg/ARC-LEA/PMSL/48.png
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap at Arctic Sea Ice
An observation on extent slowing right now... Currently cyclones shifted the wind patters from compacting the ice to spreading it, to me it looks like this is resulting in increase export as well as a thinner more fractured ice in the Arctic Basin. With the temperatures there forecast to remain above average, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a return to a much steeper decline in the coming weeks.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
@iceBunny I'm decrying my word choice =), looks like my attempt to rift of your post flopped, a little... Perhaps if you replace "raise" in PIJAMAS with a word "bulge" it will suddenly become funny and less of an actual correction. As to the graph itself, I think the less ice we have the more noise we will see in the July-October region, and if we were to get to the "ice free zone" I would expect a sharp increase in thickness, unless things are really, really bad and there is no multi-year ice left.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you great post Neven! IceBunny technically you are correct, but we may also end up with a situation where extent is low but the volume is relatively high (as only the thickest ice remains). This would result in an above average raise in PIJAMAS come September.
Toggle Commented Jun 8, 2016 on PIOMAS June 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
As expected remnants of NA snow cover retreating rapidly in the heat: http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/NH_SNOW/