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Ulenspiegel
Graz - Austria
Interests: NMR spectroscopy, military history, renewable energy,
Recent Activity
"US does not need to sanction EU, EU will comply. The true interests of EU, and US, are determined by the electorate." That is you personal opinion - which is BTW not supported by the reality on the ground. No serious politician supports the US position.
"Angela Merkel will remain Chancellor for a fourth term even though her party and the Socialists lost ground by double digits." Half of the losses go to the FDP, the other half to the AfD. "It will be interesting to see how she grapples with President Macron and his vision of a fiscal union. Meaning the Germans and Dutch directly underwrite the more profligate south." The FDP is strictly against a fiscal union. But this of course does not change the fact that we need some kind of financial transfer in the long run. Personally I like a Jamaica coalition (CDU/FDP/Grüne) much more than alternatives. SPD as opposition is a good thing.
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2017 on Day off at Sic Semper Tyrannis
"Plus many of the people entering Europe are economic migrants and not refugees from destablized countries." If you actually check the relevant data you find that your argument is wrong. Muslim immigrants are mainly refugees in central Europe.
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2017 on Day off at Sic Semper Tyrannis
" I have heard numbers of around 300,000 in Germany" For 2011-2016, there are 600.000 registered refugees from Syria in Germany, 2/3 of them came 2015/16.
BraveNewWorld: "As for oil there is so much in North America that the US is exporting it. It is no longer about needing Gulf oil and hasn't been for quite a while. It was never about importing natural gas. It is about being able to prevent others from having access to that oil in a time of war and about massive short sighted arms sales to the gulf." OMG. So much nonsense in a few sentences: 1) 2016, US consumption of oil 863 million tons 2016, US production of oil 500 million tons The USA is a NET importer of oil and will be in future. There is no realistic chnace that fracking will change this. Is this so hard to understand? 2) The USA is net exporter of refinery products, this does of course not change the fact that the USA net importer of oil. 3) North America is USA and Canada. With Canada's production the situation and your argument slightly improves. :-) "The US will shortly be the worlds largest exporter on LNG." For how many years? Try to understand that unconventional oil/NG has a bloody high decline rate of production. Do you assume US NG will scare Russia or Qatar? Hint: US production is huge but also consumption, the net export is in the long term not impressive. If you want to be energy independent you have to cut consumption and use REs, in this field the USA is indeed energy independent in a sustainable way. :-)
Toggle Commented Jul 18, 2017 on Open Thread - 16 July 2017 at Sic Semper Tyrannis
"The only (still inaccurate but still better)official index which could be used here is a PPP (Purchase Power Parity). Just to illustrate how it works, here is the quote from one of my articles" That is nonsesne. For some issues the absolurte values are important, think about the ability to import stuff. Russia is somewher in between. "Actual size of Russian economy is that of Germany and with industries which Germany (as an example) simply doesn't have." Denatable. Russia is overall not able to survive without exports of oil + NG, this issue has not changed for decades, hint: even many parts they need for this are maufactured in the west. German has no problems, i.e. Germany has a lot of industries Russia does not have. :-) I am not aware that a Russian company is competitor of Boeing, Airbus is however. You confuse the ability to cover some parts of domestic demand with the ability to make money on the international market with industrial products. :-) And then we have the interesting aspect of soft power. My many Russian colleagues tlell me that Russia maye a severe issue in this department.
"Why should that only be a requirement of the Imams? What percentage of Austrian Muslims meet that requirement?" One problem in Germany and Austria is that many imams are often not trained properly in respect to European culture, do not speak German and influence their communities in a way I do not like. This issue was self inflicted, we should have offered religious education in high schools much earlier, this with teachers who were trained in Germany. Around 2012, in Germany and Austria 50% of the Muslims are Turks, 25% are eastern European, around 10% each are Asians and North Africans. Pakistanies and Afghans are a small minority. Now we have had a much higher influy from ME, especually Syria, during 2015/16. Most of the Turks are secular, most of the Muslims from the Balkan too. The Syrains now complain that the "Turkish" mosques are too old fashioned. I do not know how many are really integrated in the sense that they defend western values against their own people.
Fred wrote: "You mean the government must monitor all assemblies of Muslim worshipers to ensure they adhere to the correct interpretation of the religion?" That is shallow. You obviously did not understand the argument Dubhaltach made in his last post: "There's a proposal floating around in what for lack of a better term I'll call Nordic-Europe that imams should be licensed by the state in the same way that priests and preachers are. The idea is that an imam needs to be aware of and respect the social, political, and legal realities of the country(ies) in which he lives and preaches." This is the most serious mistake northern European countries made: They too long iginored the fact that Islam IS a part of our society and its followers should get the same ability to persue their religion in the same extend as other religions. Islamic teachers and imans, trained in Europe, would have prevented some of the issues we face now caused by guys imported from and payed by Saudi Arabia.
Patrick Armstrong wrote: "But I do not believe a Buk shot it down" The funny thing is that even the Russians not longer claim it was a SU25 launched missile. Since September 2016 it is the Russian versin too that a BUK hit the MH17, hower, a Ukrainian. :-) http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/mh17-was-wir-ueber-den-flugzeugabsturz-wissen-14456935.html The piss poor Russian PR performance pointed IMHO to the more likely scenario that their guys screwed up and Russia played for time with stupid stunts like the press conference where a poor Russian general had to sell the redar echo of debis as SU25 and the sudden change of SU specifications on the home page of the producer. :-) If it had been a Ukranian BUK, the Russians could have fried the Ukrainians very easily and would not have missed this opportunity. And last but not least: On the German mil blog "Augen gerade aus", there were extremyl good discussions and people there - air force officers with deep konwledge of Russian AA systems and planes - came very earlty to the conclusion that it was a BUK most likely.
Die besten Wünsche zu Ihrem Geburtstag, Herr Oberst!
"Le Pen quipped during the campaign that France would have a woman president no matter" Lost Putin his manhood? :-))
"I do not think that is her most important or decisive trump factor in the upcoming GB - European leave talks. The more decisive factor will be that GB has a lot more leverage in specific European countries then in others, compared to Russia as far as commerce or the jobs it creates is concerned then e.g. concerning decisions like sanctions against Russia or Iran. ... Let's see how united the EU can stand in this context." IMHO you work with debatable assumptions: While the divorce deal only requires a majority, i.e. allows in principle some divide et impera, the for UK much more important trade deal requires 27 yes votes, therefore, each diplomatic stunt in the divorce deal will very likely back-fire, here UK walks on relatively thin ice. Re defense: The contradiction is that UK oppoased a more EU centric denfense in the past as EU member, now to assume that UK can use her military as useful bargain chip as non-EU member sounds fishy for me.
"I think this is an area that science-fiction writers have not exploited much; war in three dimensions against an enemy who is more adopted to the physical conditions of the battle space than Man is." Some of the Kzin war stories do, the fantasy/sci-fi movie Outlander(2008), too. IMHO the inherent weakness of such set-ups often is that you have to make a lot of compromises in order to maintain some logic. Personally, I like the clash of groups with completely differen moral framework.
"Germany has a trade surplus that is 50% larger than China's. Since China's population is 26 times that of Germany's, that means that Germany's per capita trade surplus is 13 times that of China!" James, you have only a chance to be taken seriously if you do NOT start your contribution with nonsense like this. :-) The German population is around 15 times smaller than the population of China. OK? If you were smart, you would not use per capita trade surplus - other countries may even have a larger one. The interesting aspect is that these countries are not criticized. BTW The US answer in the past was that one has to improve competitiveness. You remember when Germany was considered the sick man around 1999? "It is astounding - and nobody criticizes Germany for this ... except for Trump." You obviously live in the valley of the clueless - until 1989 this was a part of the GDR which did not receive western TV programes. The point you miss is that Merkel can not reduce the competitiveness of German industry and some of Trumps policies will increase the problem. "No wonder Merkel doesn't like Trump." I - and most Europeans - would be more concerned if she liked him. "Then Germany complains that it can't afford the 2% of GDP to meet its NATO commitments?" Provide evidence that the 2% are enough or that the 1.5% are not. BTW: the 2% would not change the lack of US products that are markable in Germany.
"The US military employs equipment designed by industry not the military." Even if true this igonres the fact, that armies usually do collapse because of lacking morale not because of hardware. IMHO the more pressing question is why people fight and a simple projection of western values onto other cultures lead to current ugly situation.
"In recent years, sexual assault has reportedly risen 70 percent in Sweden." Yes, but sexual assault is much much broader defined in Sweden than in the USA. With the same metrics the USA would be (much?) worse and the whole sexual assault argument is often bogus as long as you use a faulty methodology. It is undisputed that immigrants commit in some countries more crimes than the domestic population, however, I do not find an correlation with muslims. You see a clear discrepancy between share of population and share of criminals for Christians too. E.g. Polish immigrants have a double murder rate in UK, a similar picture for Christians from Yogoslavia in Austria in respects to crimes. Whether a society is willing to accepts
" Not quite - the population replacement of the indigenous farming community of my boyhood by city dwellers moving to cheaper country property is now nearing completion, so I suppose I have a little insight into the loss such a wholesale displacement entails. But the old lifestyle was fast on the way out anyway so I detect little resentment of the change among the few remaining." Yes, the old population dies, their kids move into cities and some urban folks move into rural districts but are not compensationg for the losses. That is quite common in Europe. But this is not caused by immigrants. However, the people in rural districts, where usually no immigrants live, vote anti-immigration, i.e. they projects their troubles caused by domestic politics in the past on newcomers. In contrst, in cities, where we see a very high percentage of immigrants the anti-immigrant political parties struggle. If you do not understand this obvious contradiction then a proper solution, if it exists, will not be found IMHO.
Yep. I had this (frustrating) discussion very often in the past with my father who was police officer for 39 years. It is a tough sell. I did not understand, and still do not, why drugs are "evil" while alcohol and tabacco, which kill orders of magnitude more people, are accepted. The whole war on drugs is a very stupid idea IMHO, legalization would solve 90% of the problem.
"On the other hand you cannot downplay demography. Those countries/cultures where there are not enough children born are doomed to disappear. As simple as that. And this factor is obviously on Erdogan's side." Debatable. Increasing population without the economic means to sustain it is a recipe for desaster. Look at Pakistan or to a lesser extend India. A country with a low domestic birth rate can allow immigration and can spend resources to integrate the new citizens.
"In my opinion you do not accept the data because you do not wish to." This is a possibility, however, BM's argument is IMHO spot on. If you are interested in the Neanderthal story with all its pitfalls you should read "Neanderthal Man" by Svante Pääbo. The guy is head of an excellent Max Planck group and leading scientist in his field. He describes in his book with a lot of humor the developement of DNA analysis from fossils; he admits that his first paper (Nature!) was very likely wrong because of contamination - he actually did not isolate the mummy DNA but the DNA of a curator. :-)
rjj, where do you see the problem? :-) Laguerre thought that the motto is wrong, I said it is not and you confirmed me, thanks. Yes, the negative form of the imparative is formed with noli/nolite, that was my point. :-) In the 18th century Prussian army, the gun barrel of the regimental pieces had the motto "ULTIMA RATIO REGIS" in the sense of "the last reason/evidence of the king". I - as the stupid (stultus)one -tried to use this in combination with Archimedes. OK? :-)
Laguerre, the imparative singular of nolle is noli, therefore, the regimental motto is correct IMHO. And there is still (as ultima ratio stulti) the "Noli turbare circulos meos!" of Archimedes, this will breach each defense. :-)
Tyler wtote: "Foreign policy wise, Trump will begin rapprochements with Russia and other “nationalist/populist” governments across the world, such as those Eastern European countries that refused to heed the diktats of the EU. Please get the basics right, the first part is a contradiction in itself: Trump can not reapproach with Russia and eastern European governments at the same time, as e.g. Poland is anti-Russian. He has to find a compromise and should shift from a pro-Poland position to more pro-Russian position, however, this would also benefit the EU. The second clear failure is that you only see what you want to see. Please check the fate of "New Europe" promoted by UK around 2001 and try to understand why it failed. To assume that the USA could deliver an alternative for the V4 countries is highly naive, agian you do not understand some relevant basics: E.g. after Brexit - with clear implications for the EU budget in 2020 - and the fact that Italy is at the same time net payer and victim of the Visigrad states' politics, the situation is quite interesting. As result, it is more likely IMHO that some of the eastern European governments will skrew up and be replaced with more mederate ones than a shift within the EU. Such a shift could only come with a FN government in France, the Visigrad states lack a common position and weight.
"Tell me how much illegal immigration those countries have." Much lower than the USA. However, to explain the huge per cost difference with immigrants would require that 40% of the US population is illigal. :-)
"...they likely would have to put many in jail in Germany" Why, if the girl is 16 years old, there would have been no problems with German law. But you are correct that in many rural districts girls often married young (with 16-18 years) and in some parts of Frisia it was ususlly a shot-gun wedding. This made sense, because a family who was responsible for parts of a dyke would have lost their farm without male in the household. A pregnant bride reduced this risk considerably.