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Neven, and here is the full link for the paper: Alex
Hi Folks, here are couple of graphs regarding the PNAS paper: Alex
Yes, Albert Bartlett was a good guy. But as most economists will explain you today, we have to restart the growth, otherwise we face a lot of problems. Actually they are right, but forgetting that a) restarting meaningful growth is impossible, and b) it was growth of the past that got us into this mess... Alex
Toggle Commented Dec 2, 2013 on In memoriam: Albert A. Bartlett at Arctic Sea Ice
My early tip is that Arctic will surprise us the next year as well! :-) Alex
As there any ecosystem we did NOT fuck-up? :-/
Toggle Commented Jul 13, 2013 on Invasion Of The Lionfish at Decline of the Empire
I stick with 3.8 mil sq km, just as before! Alex
The last sentence is the best!
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2013 on Yamal to the rescue at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, thanks for posting this. But only 50 million people? It is less than 1% of global population, so it is statistically insignifican number. 500 million is a better number, but probably not enough anyway. Dear Lawrence - but it make difference, if you asked people about major *negative* effects? And what about the peoples *willingness* to change (destructive) behaviour in order to avoid negative consequences of Arctic warming? But maybe it is too late to ask people :-) Alex 50 million views is common for favourite songs, but even then most of population is unaware of them.
Apocalypse, yes, and canadian government also doubled the amount of money for tar sands: k eotw, I dont think so - climate deniers are too crazy... Alex
Toggle Commented May 18, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
OT, but related to "global warming stopped" propaganda. William Happer wants 1000 ppm CO2, good for plants...: Alex
Toggle Commented May 17, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
SATire, hopefully you are right - nobody was around in Pliocene or Pelistocene. But we also know that sea level was 20m (+/-5m) higher than today, so NO ice in the Arctic (and much less in Greenland or Antarctica). The thing is the researchers expected higher temperatures, but not THAT high tempratures. And climate models have prolems explaining such conditions. That's why that talk of (probably) higher climate sensitivity. The paper was also no "attribution" study.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Steve, yes, I produced those graphs provided by data from the paleo-reconstructions, NOAA instrumental Arctic temperatures, and 8°C as revealed by lake E sediments. Of course, that 8°C is just graphical representation of the rise - the year 2100 was chosen arbitrarily (the rate of change is around 0.08°C/year (almost 2x faster than current 0.04-5C°/year). You may argue it's over-estimate or under-estimate for the whole Arctic region, thus the red line added by me is definitely not accurate - which I hope most readers here realize. There is not even any uncertainity in the projection. This is just to show that Arctic temperatures are probably far from equilibrium with current CO2, not to mention further rise. I hope that explanation helps a little, Alex
Toggle Commented May 16, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
Craig, we can adapt without much consequence on ourselves and the planet -- I am afraid, this is already not happening, Alex
Toggle Commented May 16, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice
Greenland Today shows surface melting is below average, actually it did not start yet. My bet is record from 2012 will hold for at least 1 year :-) Alex
3.8 mil. km^2 - I noticed some folks confused extent minimum in september with average september value, these are DIFFERENT numbers. Explanation of estimate - we never had 2 minima in the two consecutive years, so some rebound is expected. Polynomial trend gives 4 mil. km^2, so half way to 2012 minimum gives 3.8. Lets see! Thanks Larry for this, Alex
"It's an exciting time to be a cryospheric scientist." How long? :)
Toggle Commented May 6, 2013 on Springer science summary at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for bringing this up, Neven. I filled 20 abstracts. Average rating 3,1. BTW it is an unreparable pitty we still need such studies - by this time we should have been ALL massively involved in decarbonisation of our society - forever. But we are doing opposite, of course - and "discussing" irrelevant details. On my own blog I am explaining to fake septics that Beck "analysis" of 400 ppm CO2 in 1940 is not correct. I did not succeed - WTF? Alex
Paul, congratulations and good luck with your papers! @all, Arctic sea ice in steep descend more than four days earlier than in 2012 but I think it is too premature, Alex
Toggle Commented Apr 30, 2013 on 2012/2013 Winter Analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Folks, no worries! "The emerging view is that the Arctic will lose essentially all of its summer sea ice cover by the end of this century, perhaps as early as 2030-2040." says Mark Serreze ...well, I am with A-team on this! Alex
Chris, I am afraid, Kosh might be close to the truth! Alex
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Greenpeace got almost 3 millions signees for "Saving the Arctic". A have to say I am positively surprised, even if its only petition! Alex
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Jeff, I fear that I may have depressed them more than I expected. Cannot happen to me. I can be only pleased at this stage :-) Alex
Toggle Commented Apr 18, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Naven, "How could it not?" Well, I think it is James Hansen who points out to the non-existing trend in the Arctic oscillation index concluding, that there is no evidence (yet) that recent waether events could be at least partly attributed to arctic sea ice loss... Alex
Neven, Cecilia Bitz seems a bit conservative to me, defending some climate models in a strange way - that actual arctic decline might be a part of "natural variability" and some of the models do show rapid decline of arctic ice. That implies that she thinks that actually arctic ice decline might slow down significantly in the coming years. This is what you mean by "scientific reticence"? Alex
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2013 on A new round of vids at Arctic Sea Ice