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Abhishek Kumar
india
Asst. Professor at University of Delhi
Interests: Economic Growth, Monetary Policy
Recent Activity
The Indian economy is facing a macroeconomic crisis. The external imbalance (whether measured by the trade balance or the current account) is well beyond what can be called normal. The nominal value of the rupee has fallen more than the currencies of other emerging market economies this year. Our finance... Continue reading
Posted Oct 31, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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P. Chidambaram recently said in one interview "On the government side, sooner (rather) than later we will have to address the issue of higher subsidies than budgeted, on both fuel and food”. Chidambaram wanted his colleagues to stick to the original version of the food security bill under which 18... Continue reading
Posted Oct 13, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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GDP growth in India has declined; People are comparing it with gloom of 90's. Analysts have started writing Is BRICS story over? India desperately needs 9-10% growth to pull people out of poverty and malnourishment. It is interesting to know what has happened to India's growth story and what are... Continue reading
Posted Oct 5, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Social media showed its political potential during the Arab Spring, allowing “crowdsourcing” and the coordination of large-scale protests. Street activists scheduled demonstrations through mass Facebook messages and globally communicated up-to-the-minute updates through Twitter. The coordination and communication capabilities available previously only to well-equipped and funded forces was at the fingertips... Continue reading
Posted Oct 4, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
The debt ceiling debate is not new in US. Section 4 of Fourteenth amendments confirmed the legitimacy of all U.S. public debt appropriated by the Congress. In the begining US congress use to authorize borrowing for specific purposes (Like Panama Canal). Beginning with world war it started provisioning the specific... Continue reading
Posted Oct 1, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
India Needs Modi because perception matters for market and economy. Sensex rose by 2000 points within few days in 2009 after the results of general elections were out and it was apparent that the congress would be able to form the government without the support of left. Recently after the... Continue reading
Posted Oct 1, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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In recent months falling Rupee has been a major concern for Central Bank of India. Central bank has tried available instruments to defend the Rupee without giving any particular value that it may be defending. Giving a signal to the market about any particular exchange rate that central bank is... Continue reading
Posted Sep 1, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Fleming (1962) and Mundell (1963) pioneered the idea of impossible trinity or Trilemma. The impossible trinity doctrine suggests that a country can't have fixed exchange rate, capital mobility and independent monetary policy all at a time. As with free flow of capital, the exchange rate would be decided by interest... Continue reading
Posted Aug 28, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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Recent fall in Indian Rupee has led to panic in the market. There is no doubt that because of improving economic indicators in US, investors across the board are expecting winding up of quantitative easing and funds are flowing away from emerging markets. Almost every emerging market currency is depreciating... Continue reading
Posted Aug 23, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
The general election is approaching and political competitiveness is at all time high in India. In democracy a particular caste or religion has greater barhaining power with political leaders if they are more consolidated in their voting pattern. It has been argued in the case of India that this kind... Continue reading
Posted Aug 16, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Recent Judgement by a constitutional bench headed by then Chief justice Altamas kabir barring reservation at few places lead to a furore in parliament. People went on to claim that this is a trick to keep deprived section sweeper and all. But Ceratinaly deprived sections are being allowd to have... Continue reading
Posted Aug 6, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Like every indian I understand your desire to be Prime Minister of India and there is nothing wrong about that, who wouldn't want to be Prime Minister of India. But the fact of the matter is that your party which you established and nurtured from scratch, gave you chance of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 8, 2013 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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Indian GDP Growth is on decline. The graph below represents the quarterly GDP Growth (year on year). As it is clear from the graph growth decelerated in the aftermath of the crisis but growth quickly accelerated. But the growth acceleration was short lived and the growth is again on the... Continue reading
Posted Dec 4, 2012 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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Recent fall in Rupee Vs Dollar exchange rate is quite problematic for India Rupee and Imyself found it very disturbing for indian Economy. The first image shows the recent Rupee Vs Dollar Exchange rate and one can easily see that Rupee has depreciated a lot. Surprised by the above finding... Continue reading
Posted May 22, 2012 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Once in trafic jam i thought that Adam Smith's Invisible Hand and traffic red lights are related and if there would have been red lights in times of Adam Smith he must have given a second thought before endorsing his Invisible hand argument so forcefully. "So what is Invisible hand... Continue reading
Posted Dec 11, 2011 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Okun's law states that there is negative relationship between change in output and change in unemployment. But this recession has produced result that is quite contrary to this and has created puzzle. Germany has seen more than 7% fall in output but decrease in unemployment whereas Spain has seen more... Continue reading
Posted Jun 2, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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If u look at the OECD forecast it is puzzling. Euro are has better fiscal position as well current account surplus. It has almost same inflation as US and favorable short term interest rate. So it has better forecast for the variables which drives GDP and Employment but it has... Continue reading
Posted May 28, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
One of the small side benefits of the economic crisis has been that the IMF’sWorld Economic Outlook, all too often a somnolent document, has latterly become must-read and really interesting. (Of, course, it’s not just circumstances; Olivier Blanchard, the Fund’s chief economist, has been doing a fine job). The latest... Continue reading
Posted May 3, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Goldman and Mr Tourre, through a civil claim, have been accused of failing to tell investors of the role that Paulson & Co, the hedge fund founded by the American billionaire John Paulson, had in the creation of a "collateralised debt obligation" (CDO). These fiendishly complicated financial instruments package together... Continue reading
Posted Apr 17, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
Every day over $1.8 trillion in currency exchanges moves across national borders, a volume far greater than in the last decade; and such rapid movement of foreign currency has created some additional opportunities for legitimate productive investment, but also has created the potential of triggering national currency collapses and resulting... Continue reading
Posted Apr 11, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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A Proposal To Prevent Repetition of Past People across the globe are coming with an idea of hybrid debt securities that will be converted in to equity capital of bank if the share price of the bank falls below a trigger level or the capital base falls below the regulatory... Continue reading
Posted Mar 28, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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Bhagat Singh, Rajguru and Sukhdev were not three normal humans (they were Thought and Ideas which are relevant today,will be relevant forever in every society where human has to treated as human) whom we can remember or forget. Bhagat Singh was hanged and he welcomed it not because people will... Continue reading
Posted Mar 23, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
After endless debates and controversies over a period of 7 months, the health care reform bill was passed by the congress as the Democrats succeeded to reach the magic figure 216 on Sunday. The bill was finally passed with a margin of 219-212. I think this bill can be compared... Continue reading
Posted Mar 22, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog
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The global house price bubble was a consequence of lower interest rates, but it was long term interest rates that galvanized home asset prices, not the overnight rates of central banks, as has become the seeming conventional wisdom. In the United States, the house price bubble was driven by the... Continue reading
Posted Mar 20, 2010 at Abhishek Kumar's blog