Derek, this is very interesting, and I look forward to reading it. I happen to be working on a related topic right now and have been struck by the range of "explanations" of the food crises. The party line seems to have shifted from attributing the '07/'08 crisis to a mixture of supply/demand, weather and other factors with commodity markets acting as a catalyst, to a more recent acceptance (I'm thinking of Timmer here, in his interesting work on rice markets) that commodity markets played a bigger role given the inexplicable plunge in prices. I think your work here will be a good addition to that picture.