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Susan Anderson
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Thanks for the responses. One could say Gaagi was a symptom. DotEarth rarely crosses the line, but it subtly undermines, and promotes opinions that opine climate change is being overhyped. My observation is quite the reverse. I am deeply grateful for the work you all do here. It's an amazing place to keep up with the most recent developments, and the graphics and animations is wonderful. Speaking of neat graphics, this was useful: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895
If any of you have time, you might provide some balance in the DotEarth version, only because a lurker or two might be taken in by the specious arguments that thrive in that uncensored environment, encouraged by Andy Revkin's seizing at any straw to underplay what is going on: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/study-finds-arctic-cyclone-had-insignificant-impact-on-2012-ice-retreat/
Toggle Commented Jan 31, 2013 on 2012 record not due to GAC-2012 at Arctic Sea Ice
More ClimateCentral, and fun (for me) with html: never posted an image before! Article has much more: http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/monster-storm-lashing-outer-reaches-of-alaska-15470
Toggle Commented Jan 16, 2013 on All Arctic storms, great and small at Arctic Sea Ice
The Wunderground animation I was raving about is the same one posted by R. Gates earlier, fwiw.
Thanks Crandles, I remember the discussion about the moving false hole; hope Lanevn can get some clarity. I was just following Tenney's post, and its not surprising A4Real had a piece of that. I'm not good at the nitty gritty science part but try to follow what I can. There does appear to be some unusual stuff going on up there. Here's another interesting resource on the subject. I have no clue how to read the 3-way graphic, but the animation is fascinating and text interesting. "Sudden Stratosphere Warmings" by Lee Grenci. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/show.html?entrynum=16 This probably belongs somewhere else - apologies in advance.
Yes, Darwinian selection enhanced by recent opportunism has guaranteed the success of the greedy short-termers versus the survival of the rest of us. But giving up without trying is a dead end. In the long run, sociopathic profiteers can run but they cannot hide. Depressing.
Yes, the Ehrlichs, despite desperate attempts to discredit them, continue to dispense sound reality bites. http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full.pdf+html I'm not optimistic, just think the report begins to dig a bit deeper than most of what we see in the public domain. P3 mines to provide a nice short item showing polar temperatures in a way a kindergartner should be able to see: http://planet3.org/2013/01/11/the-colour-of-hot-or-inadequate-heatmaps/ (no doubt you all have already provided more current versions with even more startling warming) I mostly don't post here, preferring to absorb the superb work you all do but do go right through the comments and links, for which I thank you all. Tenney pulls some maps: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2013/01/extremely-unusual-arctic-sea-ice-goings.html
Yes, it's quite good. I didn't want to download or read the whole thing, so tried the Executive Summary. I like the bit about crosscutting themes and issues. http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap1-execsum.pdf While they are not staring as directly as you guys at the changes under way, and continue to underestimate the timeframe, it is significantly more realistic than previous efforts.
So far (I'm on page 7 of the Executive Summary) the NCA report seems to be thorough and accurate. "The knowledge that climate change is real and accelerating ...." seems to strike the right chord.
Susan Anderson is now following Neven
Jan 5, 2013
Well, si tacuisses aside, I am not going to remain silent, though inexpert at a level lower than that of most commenters here. I am an addict of water vapor animations, and have watched a variety of them daily for the last few years. The Arctic cyclone and ensuing events have made changes clear in this outward and visible manifestation of climate change. And as I see it, Sandy was unquestionably in a direct line with the summer events. Its size and hybrid qualities would not, I believe, have been possible without the gigantic forces set in motion by the violence of the melt. There you have it. I have no qualifications at all to express this opinion, but I saw it with my own eyes, addicted to pattern and in love with spirals and energy. The coriolis forces and the Rossby wave changes, the jet stream as explicated by Dr. Francis (Rutgers) are changing in just the way that would produce Sandy, and they did. Scientists are required to be rigorous and support their opinions with finite means, but that does not cancel the outward and visible manifestations of our fabulous earth.
Thanks as usual. RealClimate has a new post on this as well. But meanwhile, back at the ranch, "Climate Reality: The Dirty Weather Report" (another Al Gore 24 hours marathon) just addressed Arctic drilling and Arctic melt was cited as the top extreme event, rightly so IMO. http://climaterealityproject.org/ I know some people have bought the PR meme about Gore, but he's put together a terrific program, approaching hour 18 now.
Jim Pettit poem, nice! -- D, how recent is that information, does it add to what is already known? Details? -- One is tempted to doubt the more conventional scientific position on methane because they are so cautious about sticking to what they can be sure about. This is correct, but I think the way it is done could be improved. Our culture rewards certainty over truth. The idea that statements about what is true must by definition be incomplete has been exploited by marketers. This site is particularly rich because it pushes the boundaries of theory by adding in more observations from a wider field, without descending into fiction. I'm trying to find a more direct way to say we must teach the public to embrace their lack of knowledge rather that fudging to hide it. They are not required to know all this science, but they are required, for the sake of our future, if we are to have one, to acknowledge that wrong certainty is infinitely worse than right uncertainty. Expertise matters more than certainty. Hope y'all don't mind my meanderings - this idea seems important if we are to get past all the merchants of - not doubt - but certainty about doubt. Not knowing is fine. Substituting falsehood for lack of knowledge is not fine.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2012 on Joe Bastardi found a cherry at Arctic Sea Ice
late thanks for responses re northern Shell drill halt - agreed
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Dr. Curry has been heard to say it "plays well in Georgia". That about says it.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2012 on Joe Bastardi found a cherry at Arctic Sea Ice
FWIW: Shell Halts Arctic Drilling Right After It Began (Broder) A day after it began drilling its first well in the Arctic Ocean, Shell has been forced to temporarily abandon the work because of sea ice moving into the area.... http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/shell-halts-arctic-drilling-right-after-it-began/
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
For northern hemisphere water vapor, this might make you crosseyed, and of course there's that blank, but it's fascinating: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/wv_nhem_anim.gif (other options at top of page)
The final frame is a marvel of symmetry, beginning to look rather like a magnified snowflake! (considered visually)
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2012 on Peeking through the clouds 4 at Arctic Sea Ice
WRT RealClimate on methane, it became clear that the author was open to more information in those same comments. I don't think anyone can say the subject has been put to rest, though the numbers and proportions are valuable information and do provide some better idea of the proportions and mechanisms involved. Another point made was that regardless of additional GHG contributions the basic problem has not changed. OTOH, as we come closer to the cliff, each smaller contribution becomes more important. Please note also the input from Siberian fires: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/event.php?id=77712
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2012 on Further detachment at Arctic Sea Ice
I still like Gaagii, per Lisa: Navajo for "Raven". Raven is a Trickster God; the Yupik have a legend that Raven created the world even if it is only the herald. --- Also, what Birth Mark said.
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2012 on Arctic storm part 3: detachment at Arctic Sea Ice
Glad to see some people who know what they are talking about have already got going on DotEarth. Unfortunately, he enables a lot of fake skepticism but still has enough of a reputation to carry weight. FWIW, you should know he posts comments in batches, so don't think it's anything personal if it takes a while to appear., Glad to be behind here, but here's the link for those interested: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/a-closer-look-at-ice-impacts-of-a-rare-arctic-summer-storm/
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2012 on Arctic storm part 3: detachment at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you all. Learning by the minute. Particularly Paul Klemencic who reminded me of Chris Mooney's Storm World, a good exposition of hurricane heat engine dynamics (if I'm not misspeaking) ... and all the other usual suspects. Great links.
Forgot to mention Colorado fire shows one of those clouds too (EO 18 June). Getting all too common. Though this is even further from the Arctic, here's the link on the High Park fire that mentions pyrocumulus: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78312 And in looking it up, found Earth Observatory has stitched together an Arctic view (date May 26): http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78312
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2012 on Siberia burns at Arctic Sea Ice
Have been cogitating about this since it appeared, thanks for posting it. You might like to take a look at the connected link (from August 2010): http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/PyroClouds/ (my html isn't up to posting an image; imho the text is fascinating. A decade ago, a scientist trying to trace the source of those aerosols would have looked for an erupting volcano. A volcanic eruption, it was thought, was the only force powerful enough to loft aerosols twelve kilometers or more into the atmosphere. But in 2010, meteorologist Michael Fromm saw another suspect far closer to northern Russia. Working at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C., Fromm had spent the last decade studying how fires inject smoke into the upper atmosphere. His experience told him that at least one of the hundreds of fires burning in western Russia had probably generated a powerful, dangerous firestorm. .... Large fires can create their own weather by rapidly heating the air above them. The heated air rises with smoke until water vapor in the air condenses into a puffy cloud. An odd-looking puff of white capping a dark column of smoke is the sign of a fire-formed, or pyrocumulus cloud. Occasionally, if the superheated air rises fast and high enough, it forms a towering thundercloud. Like the thunderstorms that form on a hot summer’s day, the tops of these cauliflower-shaped clouds reach high enough into the atmosphere that ice crystals form. Those ice crystals electrify the cloud, creating lightning. Called pyrocumulonimbus clouds, the clouds are capable of dangerous lightning, hail, and strong winds. One such firestorm in 2003 pelted Canberra, Australia, with large, soot-darkened hail, produced a damaging tornado, and generated strong winds that caused the fire to explode into neighborhoods in the capital city. [image well worth a look] ... The umbrella-shaped cloud brought strong winds that helped the fires explode into the city. As dangerous and destructive as pyrocumulonimbus-driven storms can be, the giant clouds also act like a chimney, sucking smoke high into the atmosphere ... detected extremely high levels of aerosols in the atmosphere....
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2012 on Siberia burns at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for more info on PIG. I'm told we should pay more attention right now to the rapid warming in the Arctic which is really scary when it should be cold rather than warm. As with North America last year, perhaps the cold in Eurasian north is an exhalation from the Arctic - the question being is the cold moving out or just stretching for a bit. I subscribe to Earth Observatory and love their stuff, so have read the diaries from the expedition blog, which it appears this year was unable to do as much as they wished due to weather. Hope to continue to learn more by checking in from time to time. You guys are an education! I had located and was using an elephant metaphor for the visual, but it appears the location is more like behind the ear than where the eye might be, if you follow me. The other thing that is interesting is how much is inlet and the channel that allows currents underneath.
Toggle Commented Feb 4, 2012 on January 2012 Open Thread at Arctic Sea Ice