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Anthonyjuanbaut
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@Elbow: Very nicely said.
This post (inadvertently?) exemplifies the tenuous scientific status of macroeconomics, and argues that macroeconomists as a cohort should be ignored as regards policy advice, etc. Simply put, science that is "locally and temporally valid" isn't all that useful. Can you imagine a medical study where therapy/intervention demonstrated efficacy only in black males over 50 in the setting of uncontrolled diabetes? The take-away is that the intervention really isn't "generalizable" and therefore not useful in curing human disease. Sadly the same holds for the macroeconomic "therapies".
If it is girlish to demand minimum thresholds of verisimilitude from govt, then wear a pink petticoat I shall.
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2014 on Links for 01-07-2014 at Economist's View
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If you refuse to call the pro-Obamacare technocrats "discredited liars", then you get the govt you deserve, in my estimation. Here are some "real" HC spending projections from a slightly more credible source: http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2013/09/18/us-health-spending-growth-projected-to-average-5-8-percent-annually-through-2022/ "Health spending growth through 2013 is expected to remain slow because of the sluggish economic recovery, continued increases in cost-sharing requirements for the privately insured, and slow growth for public programs. These factors lead to projected growth rates of near 4 percent through 2013. However, improving economic conditions, combined with the coverage expansions in the Affordable Care Act and the aging of the population, drive faster projected growth in health spending in 2014 and beyond. Expected growth for 2014 is 6.1 percent, with an average projected growth of 6.2 percent per year thereafter. Over the 2012–22 period, national health spending is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8 percent. By 2022 health spending financed by federal, state, and local governments is projected to account for 49 percent of national health spending and to reach a total of $2.4 trillion."
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2014 on Links for 01-07-2014 at Economist's View
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This is why partisan lawyers and economists are the great equivocators of our times. Do you think the below "opinion" could have been used to sell ACA four yrs ago? Simply put, the ACA advocates are discredited liars. From the WSJ piece: "To be sure, the ACA's measures to expand and improve coverage will temporarily increase the growth of national health expenditures, but they will not negate these trends toward slower growth in prices and cost per beneficiary throughout the health system. Nevertheless, even with Monday's good news, growing health costs still present challenges to families, businesses and the economy. For this reason, President Obama continues to support policies that build on the progress made by the Affordable Care Act. But these new data show clearly that the trends are moving in the right direction. Improving rather than repealing the Affordable Care Act will be critical to sustaining this progress"
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2014 on Links for 01-07-2014 at Economist's View
1 reply
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Dec 11, 2013