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Interests: Climate
Recent Activity
Peter Wadhams' presentation at Arctic Circle Assembly - he projects an Arctic ice free month in 2020. Wipneus' statistcs may be on track. See:
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
D/George, Beaufort Sea ice may appear thicker, however it is highly fractured, which may facilitate warming and melt later in the summer, depending on the weather. The fracturing pattern after the last few days makes much of it appear like a giant smoothie.
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Off topic: MLO CO2 daily reading above 401 ppm on March 12 - two months earlier than last year. METOP IASI CH4 above 1800 ppb on March 12 - two weeks earlier than last year. See:
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Apologies Neven, but this needs inserted here to address Bob's question. I'd suggest a read of the National Academy of Sciences: Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis Here is a hint: Recommendation 6.3: The intelligence community should establish a system of periodic “stress testing” for countries, regions, and critical global systems regarding their ability to manage potentially disruptive climate events of concern. Stress tests would focus on potentially disruptive conjunctions of climate events and socioeconomic and political conditions.
In previous posts it was noted that El Nino will have an impact on warming, and I'd add - likely of CO2 buildup. METOP IASI globally measured CO2 hit 398 ppm at 945 mb on March 3, 2014, which is 3 ppm above last year on the same date. A lot of areas above 410 ppm. See:
Jennifer Francis presented a paper at the AAAS in Chicago on Arctic warming and Rossby Waves. I have commented, plus added in another study of the current jet stream patterns. See:
Toggle Commented Feb 16, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I decided to blog on this point in the season, for sea ice area and extent. The warmth looks set to continue for a couple of weeks. I added in some sea ice thickness comparison's as well. I am beginning to think that if the warmth of the last couple of years returns to the Beaufort, we will see major melting of the newer multi-year sea ice. See:
There is more weather weirdness coming for the US Northwest. We have a "Pineapple Express" setting up that will dump rain, snow and wind across the Northwest US for the next 10 days. I've blogged on it here:
Toggle Commented Feb 13, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
You all are welcome, my curiosity got me going, and I posted what I discovered. in regard to the comments on the polar vortex and jet stream, it is mangled at lower altitudes, from 250 mb lower. Above that it has been stronger. See my post:
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The UK MET has issued comments and a report on the UK weather extremes. It includes a clear link between the jet streams, Rossby waves and the unusual Polar vortex. See:
There is an update on the Feb 8 2014 UK storm on the blog, noting winds, jet stream, sea swell, and temps. See:
idunno, Impressive modeling and the GFS models of Siberian air mass movement into the CAA reflect these steering currents.
We are seeing the Arctic sea ice fracturing patterns redevelop that we saw last year. They may be a further contributor to the mercury or CH4 release.
Toggle Commented Feb 6, 2014 on Bromine, chlorine and mercury at Arctic Sea Ice
More weird extremes on the way this week. According to the GFS models, we should expect a major Siberian Express across the CAB and into North America, triggering precipitation in Northern CA, and also a major storm on the US east coast next weekend. The link is:
Werther, Thanks for the updated global temp graphic. Langford, Thanks for the CCI Re-analyzer link - what a great resource from the U of Maine. A4R
Toggle Commented Jan 29, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I decided that we needed a comparison of the temp anomalies for a couple of dates (January 27 and January 25),from prior years to give some perspective. See:
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Seems the US White House is getting in on explaining how the cold wave relates to climate change/warming:
Hi Colorado Bob, Those readings are there, however, the reading that Sam uses to locate sources are 7,500-9,200 ft ASL and may reflect smoke, soot and refreezing. If one was interested in surface discharge of methane hydrates - that would be at the 1000-918 mb or sea level to about 2,700 ASL. When one uses methanetracker for those periods (10-28 to 10-31, the areas above 1950 ppb are more clustered around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Islands, and Novaya Zemlya - not the Laptev Sea.
An excellent article in today's Guardian on the recent research supporting potential large releases of CH4 in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
The high temperatures and fires in Siberia and North America are beginning to increase CH4 levels in the upper troposphere. See the new images from the METOP 2 IASI satellite I posted in the ASIF permafrost section.,20.0.html Concentrations at some layers are as high as 2276 ppb CH4.
Toggle Commented Aug 1, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Jai, Thanks for finding Semelitov's comments, very helpful.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
To help monitor current and future emissions from the beginning of 2013, has added a new set of reports that breakdown methane averages between three ranges 1750-1850, 1850-1950 and 1950+ ppb on a global basis. Currently the forest fires in Siberia, Canada and Alaska are quite apparent. Please register and have an opportunity to track changes as we go through the rest of the melt season and into the fall, methane release in the Arctic Ocean becomes more apparent.
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
dorlomin, What are the consequences of Vergent's post of the 800000 CO2 and CH4 levels in prior glaciation periods compared to today's readings? If there is a null hypothesis, would it not be reasonable to assume that CO2 readings that are 25% higher that the last maximum, (400 ppm vs 320 ppm) and CH4 readings that are 260% higher (18800ppbv vs 700 ppbv) than the prior ice core readings, represent an undeniable shift from the long term cycles, and leave us open to a new climate warming state and process? No matter human or clathrate sources, it is there and it is real, and climate science says both gases create warming, which we are yet to experience the full effects. This is beyond winters.... and what I showed is apparent at a number of points in the change in annual cycles. You did not explain the change in the methane readings...from 2002 to 2012 nor what the impacts will be, I am awaiting an answer.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Hans, Just a note, the average global CH4 at 1830 ppbv may be a typo, the average depends on the mb/hPa layer being measured and that is far higher than anything I have seen reported by satellite, which would be the only source. I download the METOP 2 IASI CH4 images daily, the highest mean in the last few days was 1806/7 ppbv. The only readings higher have been when the satellite has not captured the full globe in a 12 hour period, and is an outlier that should not be used. I'll ask Robert for his source. A4R
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
dorlomin, Take a look at the satellite imagery I posted in the Consequences thread in the ASIF that I tagged above. See comments 60-61.,459.60.html Neither did you respond to Vergent's post of the ice core CH4 and CO2 trends which show that we are above previous interglacial maximum's, and lay the foundation for further warming that may trigger CH4 release in higher levels seen previously,459.0.html I'd appreciate your insight's on those in relation to what we are observing in the Arctic in relation to methane release, and also that continued warming and feedback may lead to more vigorous releases in the near future.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice