This is Arcticio's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Arcticio's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Arcticio
Recent Activity
The paper was leaked earlier. Here's a slightly scrambled copy (no figures nor formulars) on GDocs: http://goo.gl/uBk7V allowing comments/discussion.
> Nightvid wrote: Our species has survived through a supervolcano 70,000 years ago, and many of their technologies were not lost. If we could make it through that, why not human-made climate change? Although above is true, the position is unsupportable. Right now all I want is to survive, same applies to my kids and I'd never give anybody the right to call it an experiment including acceptable losses.
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I've managed to assemble 3 weeks of infrared images into a video: http://www.arctic.io/2013/2/video-arctic-infrared
Toggle Commented Feb 8, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, any idea how to get these people with a moon perspective on sea ice back on Earth recognizing volume?
Toggle Commented Feb 5, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Tenney, Youtube awaits your animation ;)
Toggle Commented Feb 4, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Typepad doesn't support ftp links so here again a link to the folder with latest apprx. 30 high resolution infrared Arctic images: Click me
Toggle Commented Feb 4, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Tenney, don't rush on the basement: ftp://arwguest:[email protected]/HRPT-Resolute--ArcticComposite :)
Toggle Commented Feb 4, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, NightVid, what would you pay for a search engine introductory workshop? Srsly, here you go: http://bit.ly/12jNTAD
Toggle Commented Feb 3, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nightvid Cole, advancing the ice pack by one year happens at different weeks and the selection of this 'anniversary' is result of a human decision. After this decision the images must be reprocessed. I propose you ignore the last image until next update or visualize this step mentally.
Toggle Commented Feb 2, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
opensheart, here is a 30 years overview of sea ice age (week 48) http://dl.dropbox.com/u/354885/Arctic/wz/48/age48.gif and here same thing as video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOgkbtomiuM (all weeks up to 2011)
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
First year-round ice free region? I think Barents is close. But projecting PIOMAS would assume a static ice sheet without any drift. Isn't Wipneus' chart highly optimistic regarding Fram Strait?
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Crandles, don't censor yourself. It just wasn't clear to me, whether you're looking for the month or the region most off the trend.
Toggle Commented Jan 31, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Crandles, it displays the difference between November 2012 and November 2007. The patch with a positive delta measures between 0cm and 50cm I would explain with the higher SST in 2007, and the ones colored in light blue, possibly represent some scattered floes having survived the great storm in 2012. Do you have a formula for thickness trend over latitude, longitude? FYI thickness in March surely changed, but stays below equilibrium anyway. However, snow load plays a role and I would suspect the more moisture in the Arctic the more snow covers the ice, I don't know how to properly attribute changes in FYI thickness to either snow or available heat. It seams snow is the most nasty unknown appearing everywhere when it comes to sea ice thickness. The GFS model has a variable (analysis) with accumulated precipitation, possibly helpful.
Toggle Commented Jan 31, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Here this PIOMAS thickness change map complements nicely the ice age images I've posted above. Now that the Beaufort Sea is mainly FYI it will be interesting to see how the melting develops once started in the McKenzie Delta. And yes, PIOMAS models up to 4 meters loss North of the Archipelago and Greenland after 2007.
Toggle Commented Jan 31, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
A4R, you'll find all info here : http://www.arctic.io/sea-ice-charts/
Toggle Commented Jan 29, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
One thing I've learned is there have been multiple drivers of volume loss active at different time. Always present in the background is Arctic Amplification with raising temperatures. Until 2007 it was mainly export of MYI through Fram Strait. The ice got continuously younger and younger and thus doubled overall drift speed. An unknown is the inflow of warm Atlantic water supporting bottom melt, if the halocline mixes. Barents Sea is now still ice free, which might be a sign. In 2007 the Arctic Dipole demonstrated massive melting of MYI as it combined a static wind pattern with clear sky. A new chapter was started then with FYI as the dominant ice type, which absorbs even more heat through melting ponds and is very vulnerable to late season storms, we saw it last year. An Arctic with predominant FYI becomes boring in terms of volume, because max height will be 2m or less. Thickness is then merely a function of month and latitude. Interestingly Chris has already found a max thickness of 3m in latest PIOMAS data. This was the situation Nov 2007 (week 48): This is where we have been last November, same week: I would call this a complete new and unknown setup. Let's see how PIOMAS will model all that seasonal ice. Now more than 60% of the ice cover depends on the weather in Summer _and_ Winter and a whole bunch of new variables step in (e.g. accumulated snow load, SSW events) To summarize, 2013 becomes exciting because the range of possible outcomes is vast and greater than in any year before. Considering 2012 as a normal year in terms of weather and seeing its impact, I don't want to watch an action replay of 2007. The point is nobody can exclude an ice free Arctic this year. The most positive result of such a catastrophe would be the GCM guys undergoing a reality check and recalling all 'mid century' projections.
Toggle Commented Jan 26, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus, your map is definitely a highlight this winter. Could you provide an error margin for 2018? Is it more than one year?
Toggle Commented Jan 19, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Well, the climate report is still a draft. This is so far the key message regarding Arctic sea ice: Summer sea ice is receding rapidly and is projected to disappear by mid-century. This projection is based on sea ice extent, volume is not mentioned. The confidence level is described as high. http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap22-alaska.pdf The comment phase starts tomorrow here: http://review.globalchange.gov/ Everybody can register and contribute...
Seasonal volume loss was mostly in the 16 tkm³ ballpark and increased slightly to 18 tkm³ in recent years. Relative loss this year was 85% - another record. http://www.arctic.io/2012/7/yearly-sea-ice-volume-loss I would translate that into a quite constant amount of energy available every year to melt ice. Looking at the Gompertz fitting I wonder what this energy does once ice gets rare in the Arctic. Apparently it's neither heating the ocean nor melting the ice. I think, which ever of the upcoming Winters fails to build ~17 tkm³, next Summer the Arctic is ice free. And the only good looking fit is just a vertical line.
> attempting to get to the menu Don't get it, images with menus? Btw.: Do you have an idea why not thickness data end of 2011?
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2012 on New site with new thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
I found these deep links quite useful: http://data.ncof.co.uk:8080/ncWMS/wms?LAYERS=glo_arctic%2Fiicethic&ELEVATION=0&TIME=2012-09-18T12:00%3A00.000Z&TRANSPARENT=true&STYLES=BOXFILL%2Frainbow&CRS=EPSG%3A32661&COLORSCALERANGE=0,4&NUMCOLORBANDS=254&LOGSCALE=false&SERVICE=WMS&VERSION=1.3.0&REQUEST=GetMap&EXCEPTIONS=XML&FORMAT=image/png&BBOX=-1000000,-1000000,5000000,5000000&WIDTH=256&HEIGHT=256
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2012 on New site with new thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Richaburton, I'm sorry, if that figure of speech did offend you. However, assuming any government will listen to the people not speaking to them and has 'to wake up', is simply denial of your responsibility as a citizen. And if that offends you too, I can live with.
Karl: If you point to Antarctica I'll point to Venus, there is zero ice due to CO2 plus no life at all. So, let's focus at the place where changes are actually happening and will have severe consequences very soon. And be assured you don't want to see Antarctica melting at the same rate as the Arctic.
RichBurton: If it is a united front the people will see the enormity of the challenge we face, and thus be more likely to accept those changes. It is just the other way round: Democracy requires participation. You can't expect your government doing the right thing while you stay quite and others demand loudly. This is accepting dictatorship of the rabble.
Richaburton: They are the only ones who can get together and make an appreciable difference! Not exactly, most polluting countries are democracies. You get the government you vote for.