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Artful Dodger
Oceania
Picking your Pocket with the Invisible Hand.
Recent Activity
As an aside to the topic of the Transpolar Drift Stream, the Beaufort Gyre is known to complete one revolution in approx. 3-7 years, depending on the distance from the center of rotation. I have a geologist friend who tells a 2nd-hand story of researchers stationed at the US Navy Arctic Research Lab in Barrow, AK during WW2. The story goes that they abandoned a vehicle on the ice during a particularly bad bout of weather, and when it cleared the vehicle was gone. But that's not the end of the story. After having to explain how they lost the vehicle, and going through the trouble of getting a replacement in Northern Alaska, two years later the vehicle came back! Still sitting on the ice as if it had never moved. Now personally, I think the story is apocryphal (as are many stories of life in the North), but it sure makes for a great story about the Beaufort Gyre! :^) Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
To our 1st-time Arctic Author: The first surface ship approached the North pole during the Fram Expedition of 1893-96. Norwegian explorer (Viking?!) Fridtjof Nansen deliberately froze his ship, the Fram, into the pack ice on the Siberian side, with the intention of using the Transpolar Drift Stream to cross the North pole. After 18 months of slow progress, Nansen left the ship by dogteam and made for the pole. He reached 86°13.6′N before a long retreat over ice and water to Franz Josef Land. Meanwhile the Fram continued to drift westward, finally emerging in the North Atlantic Ocean. In Feb 1896, the New York Times ran a story claiming that Nansen had reached the pole and found land there. Perhaps there is something to work on there. Click this image for more: Best of luck with your research! Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
It appears typepad has changed its sign-in procedure, got a warning of some security hole. No, Typepad has updated their Open-SSL package, to squash the "Heartbleed" bug. So, it's time to change your Typepad password, and any other service where you've used the same username / pwd combination as you use here. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented 2 days ago on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven wrote: | April 02, 2014 at 21:55 "I wrote about it two years ago: New Data, Melt Ponds on Arctic Sea Ice." Hi Neven, Happy Spring to you, old friend! Just a quick note that the blog link to this paper is now stale: (here's a new one) Rösel, A., Kaleschke, L., & Birnbaum, G. (2012). Melt ponds on Arctic sea ice determined from MODIS satellite data using an artificial neural network. The cryosphere, 6(2), 431-446. Cheers, and have fun! Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Welcome noiv! Are you this "noiv"? http://www.youtube.com/user/noiv Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven wrote July 24, 2010 at 21:51 I can't imagine real holes forming in the centre of the ice pack. With all that mobile ice, wouldn't the holes just be filled up by other floes, irrespective of where the winds are coming from? It could only happen if, around this phase of the melting season, winds stop blowing for a week or so, and warm currents, sunshine and air do their thing. But I'm sure that's contradictory, meteorologically speaking. It would look amazing though. Why yes. Yes, it does. ;^) My how the world has changed in just 3 short years! Cheers, Lodger
Rob Dekker wrote August 13, 2013 at 07:40 Do you have a reference to where you obtained your assertion, or if you based in on physics alone, can you give the calculations you used ? Hi Rob, This classic paper on the topic of Ekman transport introduced the physics nearly 50 years ago: Hunkins, K. (1966, August). Ekman drift currents in the Arctic Ocean. In Deep Sea Research and Oceanographic Abstracts (Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 607-620). Elsevier. Abstract: Current observations from a drifting ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean give clear evidence of a clockwise spiral structure in the upper layers. The data for steady conditions show a boundary layer just beneath the ice and an Ekman spiral layer below it. The depth of frictional influence is 18 m for winds of 4 m/sec. This is apparently the first detailed confirmation of the Ekman spiral in deep waters. Hope this helps, and your local resources allow you access to the full paper. If not, there's a reasonably complete description of the math at Wikipedia. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
The stone age didn't end because the world ran out of stone, and the age of denial won't end because the world runs out of stupidity. It will end when people are too busy dealing with the consequences of climate change (or burying their dead).
Since the storms are all running together, may as well mix metaphors, too :^) "I'll huff and I'll puff, and I'll blow your bear house down!" -- Last GASP2013
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, One other chart might be significant for this cyclone: the 300 mb Jet Stream GFS Analysis for 12Z 7 Aug 2013. Recall that one of the significant factors converging to create GAC2012 was an assist to rotation at the mid level. Since this third storm will likely determine the final SIE, I hereby christen it GASP2013 :^)
Toggle Commented Aug 7, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Recall that not a single prediction submitted to the 2012 SIO was below the actual September NSIDC SIE extent. I believe that's because SIE is a poor proxy for the true state of the ice pack. The people who predict zero SIE are not wrong, they're just early: Prof. Peter Wadhams said in Sep 2012: "This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates." It's very possible however that a prediction of 6.0 is wrong, in the sense that it may never happen again (say, in the next 1,000 years?) Even with the most optimistic linear model of sea ice decline, there's a best a 50/50 chance of ever seen that level again due to natural variability. Big volcano? Better come soon. But how likely is that? Cheers, Lodger
Rob Dekker wrote: July 11, 2013 at 08:45 Why would the height of the atmospheric pressure zones, especially over the Arctic, go up if the gradient between the NH cells fades? Hi Rob, I think the increased height of the troposphere is a direct consequence of more water vapour in the atmosphere due to a warmer earth, rather than the gradient between circulation cells. Wikipee says: As a rule, the "cells" of Earth's atmosphere shift polewards in warmer climates (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials So it seems the Hadley and Ferrel cells themselves are crowding the Polar cell, raising the height of the atmosphere in the Arctic. Or more exactly pushing the Polar cell further to the North. However, as the jet stream weakens, one would also expect the loss of this natural barrier between cells to raise the average height of the polar cells. Have you seen the polar jet stream this week? It's running from 70N to 83N in the CAA, and 75N to 85N over the Laptev sea right now (00z 11 Jul 2013). Highly unusual, and very far North. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Jul 11, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi A-Team, Peter Ellis is right about the processes of growth for MYI. Once sea ice is about 2 m thick, it is in thermal equilibrium between heat loss to the atmosphere above and heat gain from the ocean below. This particular ice floe was specifically chosen by Healy or Louis St. Laurent as the largest, thickest floe they could find in the target area (I haven't looked to see which ship deployed this buoy). That's so the floe survives as long as possible. It's not a random sample of the sea ice in the area. It's the thickest ice still remaining. The slabbing and thickening likely just happened years before the buoy was implanted. Don't expect average sea ice data from the buoy, but it does give us exactly what we need. That is, how is the thickest MYI surviving? -- Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 23, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Lillybrown wrote | April 19, 2013 at 09:21 "So when the arctic warms enough to weaken or extinguish the jet stream (can that happen?)" Hi Lilly, Polar night jet "The polar-night jet stream forms only during the winter months at around 60° latitude, but at a greater height than the polar jet, of about 80,000 feet (24,000 m). During these dark months the air high over the poles becomes much colder than the air over the equator. This difference in temperature gives rise to extreme air pressure differences in the stratosphere, which, when combined with the Coriolis effect, create the polar night jets, racing eastward at an altitude of about 30 miles (48 km). Inside the polar night jet is the polar vortex. The warmer air can only move along the edge of the polar vortex, but not enter it. Within the vortex, the cold polar air becomes cooler and cooler with neither warmer air from lower latitudes nor energy from the sun during the polar night." So this is what's happening now. The polar night jet breaks down, letting the cold out and the warm in. When the reserves of cold diminish, there are only weak temperature differences to drive this jet. I see a more pressing issue for you on the BC coast. How is the pine bark beetle infestation there? It seems a much more immediate threat to the way of life for a lumber town. Remember, the expansion of the tropics and temperate zones is a direct impact of climate change, and is driving the succession of temperate rainforest woodlands toward grasslands. You may get more traction with locals by discussing this issue. Don't expect them to like the answers. It's much easier to like a lie than hear the truth. Welcome to the blog. ;^) -- Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Furthermore, what makes you think the group of people that set out this plan 50 years ago to remove the Arctic ice cap will LET you restore it? Remember, "Corporations are people my friend". Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Again, what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. The loss of the sea ice is the first domino to fall, but after that events will accelerate and become unstoppable: The Gulf Stream moves North Meridional heat transport increases polar jet stream stagnates droughts and floods become recurrent agriculture crashes Greenland melting accelerates Sea level rise accelerates Entire Nations fail destabilizing Regions Climate refugees spawn military conflict Corporations challenge Governments Breakdown of Government, fragmentation into regional fiefdoms and zones of anarchy Basically the worst parts of the bible, if you believe in that kind of stuff. If not, think of the 1940s x 10. An order of magnitude worse than WW2. That's what's at stake. Notice that at no point above do Governments move to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or reform land use practices? It's up to us, because they respond only to their masters, the monied special interests. 00 > \_ Here's more from Gwynne Dyer Dec 9, 2012: Coasting toward climate change disaster Regards, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Nimbus I satellite data from September 1963 has been retrieved, and is now available in a newly published paper (freely available PDF is here). Meier, W. N., D. Gallaher, and G. G. Campbell. "New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery." The Cryosphere Discuss 7 (2013): 35-53. New results are provided for end of Summer Arctic SIE (about the same as 1979-2000), and end of Winter Antarctic SIE (significantly higher than 1979-2000). Cheers, Lodger
Jim Williams wrote | April 14, 2013 at 16:10 "I guess Climatology Modelling is just doomed to be another dismal science along with Economics. We certainly Don't have anything like Newton's Laws here." Very close, Jim! It's more like Quantum Mechanics, where you can describe the rules of the games but there is an irreducible amount of random chance in every particular event. Chaos is a part of the universe, even though our human brains don't deal with it well. So here's an better analogy: Craps do you expect to win every time you roll the dice? would you play if you knew the dice were loaded? do you realize that if you keep rolling the dice, eventually you'll lose? do you blame the stickman when you crap out? Predicting Arctic sea ice decline due to climate change is easy: Soon, and dramatic. Predicting weather is just the craps. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, We're not looking at actual global climate model outputs. Instead, we're given an ensemble result from numerous model runs. That's the heavy black line in the famous fig.4 from Stroeve et al., 2007. The thin, faint lines are the individual model runs of the ensemble members. The thick red line is historical observations: (click the image to get a PDF of the original paper) Notice that at least one of the models matches pretty well with the sea ice history. However, since that one is weighted the same as all other members of the ensemble, we say the prediction is wrong. To me, that just confirms only one model run will be the closest. Duh! But our criticism is based on the desire that the Ensemble Mean also match what happens in the real world (more in my next comment explaining why that can NEVER happen). I say NO! As long as the modeler has chosen a sufficiently wide range of parameters so that at least one ensemble member gets it right, then the modeler has done their job. What needs to be done next is to examine the parameters in detail, and choose the next set of models to form an ensemble mean close to the last successful model. Notice that in the 2007 projection, there are NO ensemble members that get close to zero SIE before 2050? Time to recompute! That's my take on what has happened, and how to proceed in the future. Still it takes courage and academic honesty to do this well. And I applaud the scientists who are doing it. -- Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Richard, Visualize the impact of sea level rise in google earth. Cheers, Lodger
Hi A-Team, Overland, James E., and Muyin Wang. "Future regional Arctic sea ice declines." Geophysical Research Letters 34.17 (2007). From the Abstract: "Based on the selection of a subset models that closely simulate observed regional ice concentrations for 1979-1999, we find considerable evidence for loss of sea ice area of greater than 40% by 2050 in summer for the marginal seas of the Arctic basin." Hmm, just 5 year to a 50% decrease in SIE. It seems the De-Sanctification Process Has Begun!
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Espen, Freudian slips are bound to happen on the sea ice. ;^) "Armateur" it is! since fore-warned is four-armed.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
Paul Beckwith wrote | April 04, 2013 at 23:16 "how can the pack possibly survive the frequent, severe, long-duration cyclones that were ripping into the pack last summer when the ice still had some cohesiveness?" Ooh, I know, I know! MAGICAL THINKING. Any sea ice that is transported South through Fram Strait automagically appears in Antarctica. It's true because i heared it on Faux & Fiends. ;^) -- Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2013 on On the move at Arctic Sea Ice
IJIS SIE reported for 04,03,2013 is actually the 2-day average SIE April (02+03)/2. You ARE NOT calculating daily loss in SIE unless you also factor in the loss over the previous 2-day report (which covers 01 & 02 April). Only then can you solve for the overlapping day. Additionally, we are lucky in that 2-day avg SIE changed only 4687 km^2 with the Apr 2nd report. This tightly constrains SIE loss for the single day Apr 3. Let's do the math based on the 2 day average SIE change to solve for N, the daily loss on Apr 3rd, 2013: ( 4687 + N ) / 2 = -210937 Solving for N, we get -426,561 km^2 as an approximation for single-day change in SIE for April 3, 2013. Now you ask, is this credible. Short answer, yes. There are 3 large deep lows in Arctic peripheral sea right now: one on the Labrador coast, blowing onto the Labrador sea one in the Southern Aleutian archipelago blowing into the Bering sea and one in the sea of Okhotsk blowing onshore Each of these areas sustained dramatic retreats of the sea ice edge during Apr 3rd. Make your own animation (with SLP or wind field overlays) with the IJIS Sea Ice Monitor. Another prediction: if the winds are sustained (i haven't looked yet ;^) then any IJIS revision for Apr 3 will result in lower SIE. -- Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2013 on On the move at Arctic Sea Ice
Tor Bejnar wrote | April 04, 2013 at 01:15 "This movement trend will lead to less thick ice going out the Fram." Sorry but No, Tor. Just the opposite has occurred this Winter. Look at the bottom image from the Apr 2, 2013 NSIDC update: (click this image to see full-rez 800x1622) It shows clearly that about 25% of the MYI remaining on Dec 2nd was advected from the Central Arctic through Fram strait by Mar 28. This occurred in less than 4 months, and the process is ongoing. Compare this with climate models that assume an annual figure of 10% advection of MYI, and you will understand that we are witnessing the Arctic sea ice death spiral. The drain is Fram strait, and it is unplugged. -- Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2013 on On the move at Arctic Sea Ice