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Artful Dodger
Picking your Pocket with the Invisible Hand.
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Hi Bill, I'm specifically referring to the "noisyness" in this graph, the Weekly Mauna Loa CO2 measurements, which recently showed daily readings of 408 to 409 ppm: (click image to see full-screen) These daily departures are typical for MLO data, as you can see by the wide spread of daily readings (the black dots on the graph) plotted over the year. As a intimated above, these daily jiggles in the data are the peeps of an Apapane, while the accerating decadal trend in CO2 is the tail slap of a bull Kohola. Bottom line: growth in CO2 has doubled in the 40 years from the 1960s to the 2000s. That's a slap in the face we can't ignore. But we all knew that here at Neven's hangout, didn't we? It's all about our choices going forward now, isn't it? ;^) Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi folks, The thing to remember about Mauna Loa CO2 measurements is that they are naturally noisy over the short term. The Lab where the measurements are taken is about 30 miles from the Kilauea summit caldera, which emits about 10,000 tons of CO2 per day. So when then trade winds are just right (or when "Pele" is especially angry), you will see elevated CO2 measured downwind. But, as we all know, CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the troposphere, and the readings will even out over time. The thing that matters most is the long-term trend, and we can see decade-by-decade that trend is accelerating. That's the rock-hard fact, not the hot basalt tossed into the Pacific. Undeniably. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
MrVillabolo wrote: "I'm waiting for the first cross polar cruise. That might teach the elite a lesson." Hi, VB. So sorry to report we missed the first sailing of Ship One back in '88 (Captain Hansen, 1st Officer Mann). Luckily, the second ship is preparing to sale even as we speak. Most excitingly, it is reserved exclusively for Elites, Luke-warmists and Offshore Phishermen wearing Panama hats. The third arc will follow shortly after the second one departs. Trust me. I'll be on that ship. ;^) Cheers, Lodger
Hi Jai, Well stated, though it may be better to specify that "the [Northern] summer months has absolutely no sunshine in Antarctica. Therefore, there is no albedo effect." Indeed the real issue in Antarctica (which deniers prefer you ignore), is the loss of land ice, not sea ice. This is hardly surprising, since Antarctica is continental land surrounded by ocean, the reverse of the Arctic. Still, climate deniers much prefer that you cluck'n'peck around the barnyard, all the while ignoring the 'Elephant' in the coop. So click the image if you're not chicken: For more never-ending GObstoPer fun, see the lecture-video from Denial101x - Making Sense of Science Denial Cheers, Lodger
Currently, a lot of work is underway comparing the paleoclimate record to Global Climate models in order to determine why those models vastly underestimate Arctic warming during the mPWP (about 3 million years ago). Here is one such study: Howell, Fergus W., et al. "Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data‐model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?" Geophysical Research Letters 41.6 (2014): 2011-2018. A comprehensive review paper is in Prepress for Nature Communications which outlines progress, challenges and future direction in efforts to integrate pliocene geological archives and climate models. I'll alert the group when this paper is published online by Nature, or if you can't wait msg me on the ASI Forum for a pointer to the draft copy. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Lord Soth wrote | April 01, 2015 at 02:14 "The big question is, will that shrinking donut hole of ice free central arctic completely freeze over. If not, expect a regime change to a ice free central arctic during the winter." Indeed, L.S. In fact the only way Climate Modelers have been able to reproduce mid-Pliocene (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago) temperature in the Arctic is by forcing Winter sea-ice extent to zero: Ice-free Arctic winters could explain amplified warming during Pliocene During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), global temperatures were just 2-3°C warmer than today, yet annual Arctic temperatures were 10-20°C warmer than today. This is important because during the mPWP, atmospheric CO2 concentration was also around 400 ppm. With a similar configuration of continents and mountain ranges compared to modern times, the mPWP is considered an important analogue for the 21st Century climate. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Welcome back, Seke Rob. Looking forward to more of your excellent charts and graphs. Saluti! Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Folks, Happy 1st day of Spring! (or Fall, depending on your declinations...) Meanwhile for the Arctic, the NSIDC has called the Max: (provisionally, of course, as with most things Arctic ;^) 14.54 M km^2 on Feb 25, 2015. Note that NSIDC uses a 5-day trailing average to report SIE. Significantly, that minimum occurred about 15 days earlier than average. So then, will it be 'Cry Havoc, and let slip the sled-dogs of war' for Arctic Summer 2015? El Nino effects? Wayne? Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi all, Steve, Larry, awesome that you're going to the AGU Fall Meeting. You'll do our 'blog proud. :^) Neven, time for that first sign of Winter, Open Thread No. 1? Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Oct 31, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"But now I'm 'stuck' with "gotten to the bottom to" (which I would have written "gotten to the bottom of"). Ahhh, saved by my own ego. (Please, somebody, don't leave my post the last one in.)" Not to worry, Tor. Ah jolly old England, where the rules of grammar are as stable as an iceberg, just before it tips... ;^) In this case, I think we would properly convert the prepositional phrase (the "get to the bottom of" part) into a verb phrase. Ergo, "We need to get to the bottom of so much". And remember, the keel of the iceberg is 90% of it's total (pio)mass. So there's a lot of "bottom". :^) Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Rob, An R of 0.94 (R-Squared of 0.8836) is impressive: this simple model shows that 94% of the variability in September SIE is explained by May snow cover. So then, what are the correlations with all other months? In particular, I'd be interested in Feb snow cover, as this may show a high negative correlation to Sep SIE. The high albedo of snow also means good insulation of the ground during the coldest months. More snow on land, less freeze of permafrost and more water to runoff in Spring. Apologies if you've mentioned this previously, do have a link to the numerical data for NH snow extent? I'd like to muck about with the data a bit. :^) Land change is an important topic for the Arctic. Have you seen this paper, included in IPCC4, WG1, chp 4 :^) Lemke, P., J. Ren, R.B. Alley, I. Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Flato, Y. Fujii, G. Kaser, P. Mote, R.H. Thomas and T. Zhang, 2007: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. How about including Arctic river outflow? I'd think there would be some auto-correlation with snow extent, since the underlying variable (heat) is captured by melt rate. Maybe there's a way to tease out heat flux? This map of Arctic outflowing river basins shows starkly how important Greenland will be to the future heat budget of the Arctic. 2012 was MOST notable for the widespread (and ominous) melt of the Greenland ice cap (a first since at least 1898), whereas SIE loss was more of the same... Cheers, Lodger
Oh, and Happy 4th of July to all my American cousins! ;^)
Hi Rob. That's a valuable correlation you've uncovered between Spring on-shore snow extent and September sea ice extent. It appears to be part of the larger Arctic-wide albedo flip phenomenon which is driving loss of MYI and indeed Arctic amplification itself. We need to remember that Summer weather is not just an independent variable in the Arctic equation, but also a feed-back effect due in-part to the loss of highly reflective, high-albedo surface area. Coupled with other positive feedbacks (ie: methane release from thawing permafrost), these large-scale changes to the Arctic surface heat budget can CAUSE the weather that we treat as a random variable. When playing dice, the trick is to know when the dice are loaded. That's all we need to decide. Cheers, Lodger
Hi Wipneus, Axel Schweiger (PIOMAS Principle Investigator and current Chair of the Polar Science Center PSC at UWash) acknowledged and thanked you for your contribution in the PIOMAS April 2014 thread. I think that's also worthy of a mention in this MAY PIOMAS THREAD, too. Well Done, Wipneus! +1 Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented May 14, 2014 on PIOMAS May 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Werther, Two years on, I believe we now have our answer ;) Cheers! Lodger
Neven wrote: "Which goes to show how incredibly handy it would be to have near real-time melt pond cover fraction data at our disposal, which we could then compare to data from the last 5-6 years." Our blog statistic "Cryosphere today Per Ijis Extent" (CAPIE) summarizes in melt pond fraction in numerical terms. Understand that CT ice area is derived with the ARTISAN sea ice algorithm, which is tuned to classify melt ponds as open water. On the other hand ( or denominator ;), IJIS extent uses an algorithm which classifies melt ponds as sea ice. Thus CAPIE also includes a measure of the total fraction of melt ponds. Indeed, blog all-star Wipneus may be ideally situated to create the exact metric we'd be interested in seeing. With his access to daily IJIS AMSR2 data, by processing the data twice (once with each alternative algorithm), we would see JUST the melt pond fraction. And the geographic distribution of those melt ponds could be plotted on Wipneus' signature graphs and animations. :^) Voor niets gaat de zon op! Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 25, 2014 on More on melt ponds at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi folks, Toward the end of the melt season, melt ponds cover up to 50% of the sea ice area, decreasing the value of the surface albedo by up to 20%. Total melt is proportional to total solar energy absorbed, which is the time integral of sea ice albedo. Hence, earlier melt ponds, more melt. Things aren't just black and white, not in the Arctic, and not with our energy choices. It's time for "Less Denial, More Action" by reducing our reliance on fossil fools. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 25, 2014 on More on melt ponds at Arctic Sea Ice
As an aside to the topic of the Transpolar Drift Stream, the Beaufort Gyre is known to complete one revolution in approx. 3-7 years, depending on the distance from the center of rotation. I have a geologist friend who tells a 2nd-hand story of researchers stationed at the US Navy Arctic Research Lab in Barrow, AK during WW2. The story goes that they abandoned a vehicle on the ice during a particularly bad bout of weather, and when it cleared the vehicle was gone. But that's not the end of the story. After having to explain how they lost the vehicle, and going through the trouble of getting a replacement in Northern Alaska, two years later the vehicle came back! Still sitting on the ice as if it had never moved. Now personally, I think the story is apocryphal (as are many stories of life in the North), but it sure makes for a great story about the Beaufort Gyre! :^) Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
To our 1st-time Arctic Author: The first surface ship approached the North pole during the Fram Expedition of 1893-96. Norwegian explorer (Viking?!) Fridtjof Nansen deliberately froze his ship, the Fram, into the pack ice on the Siberian side, with the intention of using the Transpolar Drift Stream to cross the North pole. After 18 months of slow progress, Nansen left the ship by dogteam and made for the pole. He reached 86°13.6′N before a long retreat over ice and water to Franz Josef Land. Meanwhile the Fram continued to drift westward, finally emerging in the North Atlantic Ocean. In Feb 1896, the New York Times ran a story claiming that Nansen had reached the pole and found land there. Perhaps there is something to work on there. Click this image for more: Best of luck with your research! Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
It appears typepad has changed its sign-in procedure, got a warning of some security hole. No, Typepad has updated their Open-SSL package, to squash the "Heartbleed" bug. So, it's time to change your Typepad password, and any other service where you've used the same username / pwd combination as you use here. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 14, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven wrote: | April 02, 2014 at 21:55 "I wrote about it two years ago: New Data, Melt Ponds on Arctic Sea Ice." Hi Neven, Happy Spring to you, old friend! Just a quick note that the blog link to this paper is now stale: (here's a new one) Rösel, A., Kaleschke, L., & Birnbaum, G. (2012). Melt ponds on Arctic sea ice determined from MODIS satellite data using an artificial neural network. The cryosphere, 6(2), 431-446. Cheers, and have fun! Lodger
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Welcome noiv! Are you this "noiv"? Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven wrote July 24, 2010 at 21:51 I can't imagine real holes forming in the centre of the ice pack. With all that mobile ice, wouldn't the holes just be filled up by other floes, irrespective of where the winds are coming from? It could only happen if, around this phase of the melting season, winds stop blowing for a week or so, and warm currents, sunshine and air do their thing. But I'm sure that's contradictory, meteorologically speaking. It would look amazing though. Why yes. Yes, it does. ;^) My how the world has changed in just 3 short years! Cheers, Lodger
Rob Dekker wrote August 13, 2013 at 07:40 Do you have a reference to where you obtained your assertion, or if you based in on physics alone, can you give the calculations you used ? Hi Rob, This classic paper on the topic of Ekman transport introduced the physics nearly 50 years ago: Hunkins, K. (1966, August). Ekman drift currents in the Arctic Ocean. In Deep Sea Research and Oceanographic Abstracts (Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 607-620). Elsevier. Abstract: Current observations from a drifting ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean give clear evidence of a clockwise spiral structure in the upper layers. The data for steady conditions show a boundary layer just beneath the ice and an Ekman spiral layer below it. The depth of frictional influence is 18 m for winds of 4 m/sec. This is apparently the first detailed confirmation of the Ekman spiral in deep waters. Hope this helps, and your local resources allow you access to the full paper. If not, there's a reasonably complete description of the math at Wikipedia. Cheers, Lodger
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
The stone age didn't end because the world ran out of stone, and the age of denial won't end because the world runs out of stupidity. It will end when people are too busy dealing with the consequences of climate change (or burying their dead).