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"Without scepticism and alternative opinion there is no debate and no science." When it comes to the scientific method, opinions are irrelevant. Data (observable&byproxy data that is) and findings via studies are what you should be looking at.
"I'm not fooled, I doubt any of our regular readers are" Too right! :D
"But almost all the people I see discussing the issues related to CO2 are rather reasonable and willing to consider any actual scientific research that suggests there will be less problems than some previous research suggested." @tony, that is your opinion until you can provide any sort of scientific research taht support your opinion. I sure would like to read it...
And that's about it, I guess. Good, now bugger off to WUWT to fantasize there. I come here to follow the ASI melting season not to bump into a concerned troll post. As it stands 2014 ASI melt does not show a true recovery just as 2008, 2009, 2010, & 2011 didn't. Now if we get an ongoing increase in volume, area and extent for 10 years in a row then we can talk.
Hola Diablo. Aqui un paisano :) There is no much diference between experts and amateurs with regards to GW and what it entails since it is all new territory. Experts and amateurs alike have to deal with new data that is no longer the 'norm'. Experts make studies on the field they are, well, experts at, but amateurs tend to read and analize studies from a varied range of fields/disciplines to get a better overall picture of what's going on. Keep the good work.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
Is extraordinary to watch the Polar Vortex morph from this ... http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/24/1800Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-0.24,95.90,271 ... to this ? http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=0.89,105.62,271
Could the plastic soup have helped alter the behaviour of the Gyre and the NP High?... Perhaps the concentration of plastic particles is so high at surface level that water within that area no longer operates as such but more as a liquid plastic. Thinking that plastic is an insulator, would that affect the air/sea heat/energy transfer?
Keeping on the topic of the North Pacific High I bumped into this interesting article from 4 years ago. "In nine years, the North Pacific Gyre expanded 10X to 25X times faster than models of global warmng predicted and it is at least twice the size of Texas" The NPG is also known as the Garbage patch. http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/waste-and-recycling/news-north-pacific-gyre-100-million-tons-garbage-and-growing#sOTozczF1KdPg261.99
@Weather_West Do you think we may end up with an Earthly version of Jupiter's perennial red spot?
"The persistence of this high is just plain "weird" and just a bit scary about what it possibly means." Strong SST anomaly under the blocking high west of US has been there for a very long time too, cause, effect or feedback loop?
Re: BBC news article "The minimum ice extent in the Arctic this summer was recorded as 5.10 million sq km. Again, this was a figure almost 50% larger than the all-time satellite-low mark achieved 12 months previously " Well, isn't this what happened in 2008 after the 2007 collapse? ... then came 2012. I see no reason to see this 'recovery' as good news... is like the BBC are teaming up with the 'other side' of the argument.
Toggle Commented Dec 16, 2013 on Arctic Report Card 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
@Kevin I'd guess based on a negative ENSO. That strong SST anomaly off the pacific coast of S. America and the below average cold Arctic temperatures have gone hand in hand over the melt season.
2.92 MKm2 and NP ice free. In spite of the unexpected melt freeze up, I'm only going up 10k from July. Main reason state of the ice and the still to come cyclone to match GAC2013 that I've expected all summer but so far has failed to materialize :/
@Tenney Yeah, the change of the cell's behaviour is becoming more visually acute. I posted this last year: " Now, we are more likely to see atmospheric rivers of moisture running from the Caribbean to Greenland. Or, atmospheric rivers flowing from the tropical Pacific to the Bearing Sea." I have noticed this already happening. I check regularly the global flow and for the last 4-5 winters water vapour from the Equator has shifted from a fairly regular North East direction to truer North sending wave after wave of warm tropical moisture. I believe this is down to the Jet Stream getting weaker and it is more obvious over the Autumn/Winter months (till re-freeze is achieved I suppose). A daily check here: http://www.sat24.com/world.aspx can help follow the flow and spot those pesky JT loops that are becomming more common bringing Cold snaps, rain, etc. Posted by: Climate Changes | December 11, 2012 at 12:32
@Lewis http://membrane.com/sidd/greenland.html http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/Topographic_map_of_Greenland_bedrock.jpg posted by Daniel Bailey here: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/06/2011-nares-strait-animation.html
Bremen Uni map today shows the Laptev Bite more than doubled in length and still running along the direction of the Gakkel ridge (maybe call it Gakkel Bite?). Reading literature (papers, etc) about it I find that there are two fields of opinion. One that argues that the volcanic activity in 1999 is responsible for the Arctic ice decrease seen in recent years(something I disagree with) and another that states that given the depth at which the hydrothermal vents and volcanos are situated within the ridge (2 to 3 thousand meters) it would be impossible to melt such a vast area of ice. I'd have agreed with the second view 10 years ago when the ice above the ridge was thick but now that the ice is thinner it appears that the activity in the ridge is affecting the water column above so much that it shows on the ice as the Bite. It has been noticed that, for the last 5 years, the Bite has become a regular to the melt season. what effect this 'new' source of heat has in terms of mixing layers? Can the volcanic activity become another 'time bomb' now that the thick ice that kept the heat at bay is gone?
Toggle Commented Aug 2, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
"CC, over here on the ASIB we like to call that phenomenon the Laptev Bite. Or do we call it the Laptev Hole? Anyway, someone suggested a couple of weeks ago that we call it the Laptev Gobble this year. :-)" Oh aye, I've found the Gobble references on the ASI Forum and a thread about the Laptev Bite on ASI back in 2011, thank you :). I don't see however any mention of the volcanic activity on the Gekkel Ridge as its cause? Comments about its origin refer to an influx of warmer Atlantic waters but as the ice gets weaker year on year it appears more obvious that thermals from the ridge could possibly be the cause. In 2001, 2007 & 2011 expeditions found volcanic activity at the ridge greater than previously thought. My guess would be that the Gobble (xD) will be a yearly feature (and perhaps a permament one in the future) as the ice above the ridge is far too thin.
Toggle Commented Aug 1, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
For the last 5 years or so, just north of Severnaya Zemlya and just above the Gakkel Ridge, an area develops were the ice melts fairly quickly. A polynya would be the right term but I understand that there is volcanic activity on the ridge underneath and therefore heat must be released causing this? To me it appears that this polynya follows the direction of the ridge for about 300km and this year is particularly obvious already. Looked up on CT and the further back in time the less obvious it is and the nearest to the September min it appears. Prior to 2006 is hard to see it as the ice was much thicker and I guess the warmer water would have had more of a job to break through. In anycase any extra warming cannot be too good for temperatures on the East Siberian Seas.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
@Jai Kevin McKinney picked this up on the Guardian. "fern diffusion" should be "firn diffusion" :)
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
Uni Bremen graph today shows many areas with low concentration surrounding the CAB. A severe drop in extent expected soon?
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
In regards to the article, yes, all scientists but a few have been conservative, possibly for fear of ridicule. I can tell you from my own experience as a well informed amateur that in 2005, when I started seriouly discussing the future decline of the ASI with others, I was told a few times to get a tin foil hat. Since I had no professional reputation to lose I wasn't that bothered about being ridiculed, and in the end I was proved correct. There are many disciplines involved in observable AGW, biology, glaciology, climatology, physics, maths,... etc, each with its own specialist scientists and many studies from each field screaming fast changes. So perhaps there hadn't been brought together soon enough hence conservative results?
@dorlomin The Dark Snow Project is all about Greenland,... Jai Mitchell's comment is about the Arctic Sea Ice. Here's an apple, here's an orange... compare and contrast two round objects.
2.82 MKm2 and NP ice free. Same as my last 2 predictions for me. In spite of this years lower Arctic mean temperatures the melt goes on as 'normal'. If extent decline carries on as it is at the moment it will join 2012 near mid August.
2.82 MKm2 and NP ice free. Sorry I've just realised figure goes first :\ Reason, based on observation of this years early, widespread break up of the ice followed by the ongoing ice churning cyclon/s. I second Kevin O'neill's words too but if anything may make me change my mind it will be the behaviour of ENSO in the next 2 months.
"The sensible conclusion is that there is an error either in the data or in the presentation." Perhaps that is the case :\. If CO2 levels were 300-328ppm in the super-interglacials as shown on the presentation, this would mean that at 400ppm -and growing- we are pretty much guaranteed 8C+ as soon as the Earth's systems catch up. Equally, it would mean that CH4 is highly likely to be realeased in big amounts. Neven, many congrats on your 500th. Your blog keeps my sanity in a world of denial:)
Toggle Commented May 16, 2013 on When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer at Arctic Sea Ice