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Tor Bejnar
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It always serves us when we see you un-lurk, Chris! If my opinion counted, I'd advocate for A & D. "A" for first ice free autumn, "D" for 'the transition' is complete.
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2016 on Consensus and consequences at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, EconDemocracySV for the guidance. I copied the GIF from Neven's post to my computer (iMac): not only was it 2.7 MB, but the individual year images were right there to view! (Whether I paste the copied file or input the link into the GIF speed changer, it downloads it as a very large GIF and only shows a slowed down 1920 and 1921, [not '90-91 as I previously reported - I'd just had surgery and was under the influence ...].)
Unfortunately, the gif is 256MB in size and requires a gif to be 16MB or smaller. It slows down 1990 and 1991 very nicely! I managed to get screen shots of 2012 and 2019-31. 2030 looks vaguely like the 30-days-per-year area is half the 2012 area. They are posted on the forum at,1112.0.html (post #1064).
The years go by fast, but it looked like substantially ice-free (< 1million sq. km.) would first appear about 2020, per the animation. (I'm making the assumption that the 30-days open water divide is the equivalent.)
From the ASI Forum: The scientists aboard Healy tried to gather ice measurements along the journey but were stymied by finding slush instead of solid ice until they were within 100 miles of the North Pole, they said in a Coast Guard press release. "It’s hard to believe how slushy the ice has been so close to the pole; this was the first area we were confident enough in the ice conditions to allow on-ice science experiments," they wrote. "Despite being thick, the ice we encountered further south was simply too soft and unstable to safely put individuals on."
Toggle Commented Sep 29, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Re possibility of potential compacting in late August/early September: the Healy reported sailing through slush for some/much of it's journey to the North Pole. I imagine that if the occasional floe of solid ice was shoved into this, the slush would pile up with little resistance. An area with 100% concentration could have 'easily' had its area reduce. I don't think there wasn't a 'seriously compacting' event, so this idea wasn't tested.
Toggle Commented Sep 27, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Some of the lakes have a horseshoe shape or have an ice island in the middle. I suspect these lakes didn't drain last year, leaving a flat lake bed. I'm curious was causes the central ice to rise enough so that we see the ring of water around the center. If enough water flows into one of these lakes, of course, the 'island' would be submerged and the depth would appear to be even. I wonder what the differences are between this lake ice and the surrounding surface glacier/ice sheet ice and the consequences for subsequent melt-ability. I presume the lake ice would have less air and a different crystal structure.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2015 on Lakes on a glacier at Arctic Sea Ice
2007 also saw Nares Strait exporting ice the entire winter (2006-7 - only time 'ever'). Although typically about 10% of what is exported through Fram Strait, this extra Nares Strait ice export had to help with the 2007 September minimum.
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2015 on PIOMAS August 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for mentioning Steve Bloom; I've wondered what happened. Whatever the challenges, I wish him well. I went to a couple Int. Geol. Congresses (Prague 1968, Sydney 1976) and learned a lot (including the affect Russian tanks have on different types of pavement). Have a grand time, Neven. So much will come your way, I suspect, that jotting or recording notes to remind you of highlights that might get lost under subsequent highlights might help.
Al, Thanks for the Drakes Passage info (another challenge to Pliocene ocean current modeling). I have no doubt that 'size matters' and I also wonder what effect 'some connection' has.
Toggle Commented Apr 12, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Lodger, I'm not certain when the Isthmus of Panama closed. Some say earliest Pliocene; some say mid-Pliocene (3.1 ma - in the middle of your 'forced ice-free Arctic period' ( The timing of its closure, and the consequent changed ocean circulation, may have a significant influence on Arctic sea ice. Modeling global currents with an opening between N. and S. America must be tough.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
My mother always writes 10,000 as 10M, using the Roman Numeral, and so, at times, I have not been certain if someone using "M" was meaning thousands or millions. Paying attention to other's usage in recent years has led me to believe that ONLY my mother uses M for thousand! Because I know some on Neven's pages may not be fully fluent in 'American', I try to avoid undefined abbreviations and usage that might confuse (such as 4/5/15 being today according to my compatriots, but 29 days from now for others).
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm delighted not to be reading "I can believe …" each time I check for new posts (nothing wrong with what you wrote, Robert S). But now I'm 'stuck' with "gotten to the bottom to" (which I would have written "gotten to the bottom of"). Ahhh, saved by my own ego. (Please, somebody, don't leave my post the last one in.) I'm delighted to be able to keep up with the Forum threads I find interesting. When I can't read 'everything' in a thread, I wonder if I should post anything, because I might have missed something crucial.
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Iceman, You have identified all the vectors I've thought were the possible/probable causes of this slow/minimal melt.
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
From the Healy thread: [quote] Lessons from the recent voyage in the Arctic: Dallas Murphy’s blog post on July 1, 2014:] ... "Then it snowed, barely an inch. Hitherto, no one expected that a slight late-season snowfall could raise the albedo high enough to forestall the formation of melt ponds. So we learned considerable new lessons about the penetration of light through the pack ice before the onset of melt ponds." [end quote] If there was a late snow across the Central Arctic Basin, this could explain the lack of melt ponds. If June PIOMAS for the CAB shows a lack of thinning, this may be the cause. On the other hand, if the CAB lost a lot of thickness in June, I presume this would be largely bottom melt from an apparently warmer sea.
Toggle Commented Jul 6, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 4: high times at Arctic Sea Ice Yes, looking hopeful for northern California next weekend!
I've been reading only Neven's posts for months (rarely any comments, and haven't visited the Forum since about the ASIE minimum), and thought to drop in to say hello. Two images stand out to my mind. 1) The Central Arctic Basin (CAB) sea ice may respond more slowly to global warming than do the surrounding basins. (Chris and others write on this.) and 2) I expect the next El Nino year (or the northern summer following) will torch a lot of Arctic ice! (I came to understand sometime last year that as the Earth surface warms, the threshold for an El Nino goes up, and wonder if it will get harder for an El Nino to form. But I know I don't know what I'm talking about.) I too was surprised by the slowed down melt, but given that it happened, I'm not too surprised by the fairly robust freezing.
Toggle Commented Jan 11, 2014 on PIOMAS January 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
What the consequences was of bits of open water in the high Arctic (e.g., north of 80N). As Arctic surface water with ice cover is about -1.7C, does the open water in leads and small polynyas cool the lowest two meters of air (thus the very low DMI temps)? Recent years have had slightly lower DMI high Arctic summer surface temps than the long-term average. Might bits of open water cause this (or at least influence this)? This year has much more highest Arctic open water, so is this why DMI temps have plummeted? I understand the heat transfer between the Arctic surface (all Earth surface, actually) and (ultimately) outer space is happening all year 'round, only being offset by solar gain during the day (especially the long Arctic 'day' we call summer). How does this support or conflict with the idea in my first paragraph?
Toggle Commented Aug 18, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
I had no problem having to use Google Translate (seems better than Bing, at least from French to English) to understand Gerhard's first posts. It reminds me of some challenges posed by non-English speakers who care passionately about Arctic ice whom we hear from occasionally. I even figured out some words that didn't translate (Neven's "Volumdaten PIOMAS" = PIOMAS volume data). The use of abbreviations not defined in a post or in a recently preceding post, however, make it really tough for newbies and others. (And when an abbreviation is used that appears technical but isn't included in the "Glossary … for newbies and others" on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum nor referenced/defined earlier in the thread, I wonder if the author knows they are writing gibberish, including use of texting shorthand.) Sorry about getting on my soap box.
Even as I expected the PIOMAS volume and Polar Science Center thickness to be less than they are, the PICT thickness is what I expected. If PICT is "right" and PIOMAS is "off", then my gut sense of "the right ordering of the universe" is not consistent!
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2013 on PIOMAS August 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
My guess for NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent September 2013 average is increased from 3.6 (previous guess) to 3.75 million km2. (Curiously, this keeps me in the same bin on the ASIF vote opportunity that ended 10 or so days ago. I didn't peek before my calculations, honest!) This projection is largely based on three HYCOM thickness maps: July 29, 2012 & 2013 and September 15, 2012. I compared the 2012 maps to see what melted (or compacted) between late July and mid-September and projected similar changes onto the 2013 map. The Beaufort-Chukchi-East Siberian side of the Central Arctic in 2012 had much “2” to “3.5” meter thick ice melting (or moving toward Greenland); I do not expect a repeat. As I have no electronic graphic manipulation software or skill, I cannot accurately determine the extent I’ve drawn on a printout of the late-July 2013 map (talk about crude science!) I took my HYCOM projection (~4% increase) and increased the NSIDC 2012 September extent average by the same factor. [The quoted HYCOM thicknesses are because that is what the graphic indicated, not what was really there at the time.] I still expect ASI volume and maybe area to have new minimum records this year, but I expect icy rubble will remain dense enough to cause NSIDC extent to not enter record territory. As many a fellow ASI watcher has written, the weather will be significant in determining if new records are set or not. Even as I remain pessimistic about Arctic ice survival, I realize more clearly this year that my understanding of ice dynamics and influences are significantly deficient to qualify me to say much of anything in regards to Arctic sea ice. That said, I grow increasingly appreciative of posters here with significant graphics expertise, and I participate as I can.
Ask a couple of unrelated elders.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
I meant: (I wonder what "neven" means IN some Arctic region language!)
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
First of all, I agree we should consult with Inuit people who may have insight (cultural and experiencial) into this whole process we are proposing. There's nothing like imperialists taking over something of someone else's (in this case, words). That said, I like the idea of using Arctic people's words, especially words that could possibly relate to storms (like, translated, "sharp"). (I wonder what "neven" means is some Arctic region language!) I like there being criteria that, once crossed, the storm gets a name. I worry about too many days at a certain pressure because we will have been talking about it for several days already. Better to give a name to a short-lived storm (to be forgotten) than miss the monster that therefore gets a news-media moniker. I imagine a criterion something like: minimum pressure less than 985 hPa with a forecast of lasting 72 hours at 990 hPa or less. (I'm not a meteorologist, so these numbers are just echos in my head.) I would ask us to trust the likes of Neven or R. Gates to set up (or have an Arctic native person set up for them) an initial list of names. I see no need for A first then B, but am not against it. (I think the West Pacific doesn't name storms in alphabetical order, and draws from multiple languages.) I imagine having a list of 25 or 500 names that slowly gets used over the years. No need to repeat the first storm's name every 5 or 7 (13?) years.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm so appreciative of the creative thinking and quality work products these and other folks do and make. Our understanding grows because they care.
Toggle Commented Jul 19, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice