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The Truth Injection
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NEPP: we were told last week that this was healthy Ryan Howard and the Phillies were going to win 83 games this year. Stop laughing. I'm serious
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I will go ahead and say I dislike Sandberg as manager
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Couple things: 1.) the phillies gave Howard an extension when they did because they felt they wanted to keep their homegrown slugger in what was potentially a market that would have priced them out in some ways. The problem is they didn't trade that off in terms of a price discount. I do wonder if they opted for a years discount but I wasn't in the room with them so it would just be speculation. As bad as the Howard contract is I guess we can be happy that we are not on the hook for as long as the Angels are and the Rangers have made themselves. 2.) it's cute that people think Amaro would've considered WAR when signing Howard but he didn't. Honestly- neither would a majority of GM's in the league. I know that will be met with resistance but the concept of advanced statistics within baseball has not caught up yet to the fan perspective of it. It's moving forward but it is not an across the board thought. Also, as clout points out, WAR is a completely imperfect stat anyway. 3.) same thing I say about the Lee trade to Seattle. At this point it doesn't matter how many words we type on it or how many people want to make their opinions heard. Simple fact is- whatever the thinking or rationale, it failed.
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The only real issue with TGP is a clash of our posters and our posters rhythms with them. They haven't been around us enough to understand our individual ways of thinking. I think there are some very good posters over there and some mouth breathers which is basically every other message board in the world.
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Count me as well as not understanding Willard liking Lester over Hamels every day of the week.
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I bet the Phillies could get a "Q" level prospect for Kendrick.
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Their heart and desire will kick in soon
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PLM: Sandberg basically said the other night that Revere/Sizemore/Brown are three guys for two spots. So they will be rotated around
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Also read that the Pirates were scouting Burnett on Friday night
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A rain delay: Even the weather is tired of watching the Phillies play.
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Well it looks like Tal is not interested in having an intelligent conversation about his piece and the logic he used wherein. So I'm done with it and will no longer make others read it.
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Tal: So nothing about how your argument makes no sense and is borderline bizarre?
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"The question for them is who will they be in 2015: a team that wins 98 or 86? I use 2012 for the Phils because that was the last year they had their core four on the field and had a second-half run." See Tal- this is where your logic is faulty. You are using one set of time for the Phillies and one for the Nationals. You want us to focus on the 2012 season of the Phillies and ignore aspects that show the team trending downward. Also, you point to a healthy Howard- who is having as bad a season as he did in 2012. Also you point to Burnett being an upgrade over Halladay when really their ERA+ numbers are similar. But then you want to ignore the Nationals 2012 and focus on the year in 2013 where they were "worse." Shouldn't we also then ignore the 2012 end of the year and focus on the 2013 for the Phillies? 2007-2011 doesn't factor into it at this point as much as you'd like it to.
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clout: While I can always appreciate a good Jack bashing- I do think there is a slight difference between Gillies and Guerrero when it comes to playing in the High Desert. Gillies numbers were inflated in that playing time there even with the struggle in 2008 there. Guerrero did have a decent slugging percentage in 2012. The key to me is was his drop in home runs last year an aberration or his reality outside of the High Desert. As it stands though- he is a good return for Byrd.
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BAP: Yeah like I said- I would be opposed to trading Hamels but if a team called and was willing to blow you away I would really consider it.
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One last trade note. Jim Bowden has a piece on ESPN.com talking about 4 teams that could be interested in Hamels and have the resources and prospects to get it done. I've said it elsewhere that I love Hamels but if a team calls offering up legitimate top prospects for Hamels you have to listen. Bowden has the Braves, Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Mariners as possibilities. I will pretend the Braves don't exist in this discussion. The most intriguing possibility to Bowden is Hamels to the Dodgers for Joc Pederson, Zach Lee, and Tom Windle. You are basically getting 3 of the Dodgers Top 50 prospects and 2 of the top 50 in baseball probably. You almost have to do that deal if it became a reality as painful as it would be.
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To add to the Gabriel GUerrero news, Jon Morosi tweets that the Phillies and Orioles have discussed Burnett but it is not in advanced discussions yet. Tyler Wilson would be a guy to target for a Burnett. Throws low 90's with a decent change up and slider. Keeps it down in the zone and has good control. Seems like he could be a better Kyle Kendrick. Maybe we could get as well (or get by himself) a Jon Keller too. Looks like a solid back end of the bullpen profile guy with a big frame and a fastball that can hit 98. 66 K's in 56 innings this year so far with opponents batting .192 against him.
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Tal: I lied. One more question on your piece, as I found something new that fascinates me. You talk about the Phillies in 2012 and how they played so well in the second half and this portends great things in the second half of this year. However, you write this about the Nationals: "If they live up to their potential and learn how to win, the Nationals (51-42) will cruise into serious October baseball. However, they struggle to distance themselves from the rest of the division. In fact, their high-water mark for ’14 is nine games above .500. They shouldn’t have to rally this September, but the injury bug could continue to reek havoc on them. For instance, Bryce Harper is rusty after two months on the DL." Now in 2012 the Nationals won 98 games. This was with them shutting down Strasburg down the stretch. This year their starting pitching from top to bottom is better and their bullpen is arguably better too from top to bottom. In any respect- the Nationals staff ERA+ in 2012 was 120. This year it is 120 as well. So why do they get the caveat? Are we only allowed to use 2012 for the Phillies?
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If they get Gabby Guerrero I would gladly take that. Lots of potential there and would be a nice return for what was essentially a rental of Byrd
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Tal: can you put a countdown clock widget on your website until it is released?
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Tal: I will respond and hopefully Hugh won't get his panties in a bunch. Last time to you on this particular topic. I did read 2 other articles by you and they were similar in belief system to the one we keep discussing. Also, you would do your articles better by not saying "I write positive things I think rather than negative." It's reality. There is no shame in that. The phillies had a wonderful run but it is over and they need to adjust. Again- you seem to prefer writing fan fiction. Fine, go for it. But saying stuff like "Howard's head and heart were what drove him." It wasn't. It was his talent. Right now he may have heart and all but not the ability. His body is letting him down. Can you account for that?
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As far as the "9th grade syntax and grammar" I'm not going to give you an example. Not because they aren't there, because they are. Rather because you will deny it and write me another wordy post that is essentially inconsequential to the discussion. Anyway- back to the 6-4 loss. Begin the sell off now.
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"I write positive articles, and I deliberately leave out the if this and if that which would bring it down. As I said, there are plenty of writers who will tell you what you want to hear." So basically you write with your head buried in the sand. Again- totally fine, but don't expect people to engage you in legitimate discussion. You are basically writing Phillies fan fiction where heart and desire are the keys to winning. It's just a little bit silly and I think deep down you know that. "Numbers can't tell you everything. A champion has it in his heart and head, and there are no numbers for that. I watch what they do, figure out why they did it, and project what they might do." So you've watched a year and a half of this team and think all of a sudden they are going to play at this winning clip? Define for me "flipping the switch."
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Tal: I am a positive guy every single day of my life both baseball and non baseball related. And I've been a longtime fan of the team so take your weak snarky "2008-2011" nonsense elsewhere- like maybe the site where you write pieces that aren't done and feature the syntax and grammar of a 9th grader. The simple fact is the Phillies are at a spot where they need to turn the page. Also, your thought that they are all of a sudden going to flip a switch now after showing no ability to do it for well over a year now is the very definition of a Pollyanna argument. Good for you thinking they are getting to 83 wins. But when reality hits we will be here when you want to sanely discuss the team
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Well on our way to finishing with 83 wins. Healthy Howard and Burnett paying dividends.
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