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Billy Crawford
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Bear in mind Kirk's dad is an ordained minister and Kirk has a strong faith. Is it possible he is following in the footsteps of so many other players and coaches before him, including Tom Landry and our own Joe Gibbs in sharing his approach to life?
The problem with draft picks, including 2nd rounders, is they're nothing close to a sure things. Cousins is looking more and more like a sure thing. A draft pick is far less tempting than a young, proven cornerback. What's more valuable to other NFL teams, a QB or a cornerback? That's the only trade the Skins should consider. (...something about one in the hand being better than two in the bush...)
Pierre Garcon's performances allowed us to win those 2 games. Without Garcon those wins would have been losses. I have to add Pierre to the list of MVPs, despite his limited playing time. Talk about an impact!
Regarding Robert's arms-out dive to the goal line with the ball touching the pylon being an an all-timer, it's something he did extremely well in college. In fact, here's a pic of him scoring a TD that way this pre-season, albeit into the plane of the goal line, rather than the pylon: http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1206109/img19914598.jpg I expect to frequently see it! Here's to Robert's career being an All-Timer as well.
RG3 Officially The Highest Rated NFL QB Today http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2012&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING
...and now Robert has passed for over 300 yards, no picks, and he's the first QB in 62 years to lead his offense to 40 or more points. Andrew Luck today: 1 TD, 3 Picks, 51% completion % BTW, Vick threw 4 picks today. Guess there's no counter points, only points.
One fan's slanted views for anyone who's bored: Briscoe - a "playa" and a player. Moneyball says ignore the off field issues and evaluate him only for what he has produced on the field, which is a lot given his limited snaps. Banks - Let's not forget the fumble in the backfield. Do his yards make up for lack of ball security? (Muffed punt and fumble.) Kehl - Up and Down all pre-season. He gets beat a lot. Aldrick - Great separation on the tipped pass. Niles Paul - Errrrgh. When you you going to start bringing it? Reed Doughty - Amazing how fast a guy looks when he's out there with the 3rd stringers. The fans seem to hate him. But he'll be a Redskin this season. Cundiff - Great leg on those kickoffs (one even hit the goal-post's cross-bar.) Not a gimme by any means, but I sure wish you could have made that 40+ yarder.
I'm honored to see your name at the bottom of a comment. Adding in each of these players fumbles we see the following ratio of Passing TDs to Turnovers: QB | TDs | Turnovers Newton | 21 TDs | 22 Turns Bradford | 18 TDs | 22 Turns Bradford '11 | 6 TDs | 16 Turns Dalton | 20 TDs | 18 Turns Ryan | 16 TDs | 17 Turns Still very impressive for rookies. RG3 is often compared to Steve Young. In his 2 season career with the team that drafted him Steve threw for 11 touchdowns with 21 interceptions while completing fewer than 55% of his passes. He also fumbled it 15 times. That's 11 passing TDs versus 32 turnovers. I love RG3 and I'm hoping for an amazing season like Cam's, but given the state of our offensive line, I'm prepared to be every bit as patient with Robert as the Giants staff was with Eli his first four seasons. Eli threw 77 TDs while turning it over 98 times on picks and fumbles.
It can be argued our QB's ceiling and potential is higher than any QB who has ever played the game. But can we come back down to earth and remind ourselves this is Robert's rookie season, he's going to turn the ball over a lot. He's a rookie. EVERY QB takes multiple years to develop. Here's an analysis of the first 5 Seasons' QB ratings of every QB who was drafted #1 or 2 during the past ten drafts: '11 1st QB: Newton - Year 1: 16 starts 84 rating '11 2nd QB: Locker - Year 1: 0 starts. '10 1st QB: Bradford - Year 1: 16 starts 76 rating; Year 2: 16 starts 70 rating '10 2nd QB: Tebow - Yr 1: 3 starts 82 rating; Yr 2: 11 starts 73 rating '09 1st QB: Stafford - Yr 1: 10 starts 61 rating; Yr 2: 3 starts 91 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 97 rating. '09 2nd QB: Sanchez - Yr 1: 15 starts 63 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 75 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 78 rating. '08 1st QB: Ryan - Yr 1: 16 starts 88 rating; Yr 2: 14 starts 81 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 91 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 92 rating. '08 2nd QB: Flacco - Yr 1: 16 starts 80 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 89 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 81 rating. '07 1st QB: Russell - Yr 1: 1 start 56 rating; Yr 2: 15 starts 77 rating; Yr 3: 9 starts 50 rating; Yr 4: 9 starts 50 rating; Yr 5: gone. '07 2nd QB: Quinn - Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 3 starts 67 rating; Yr 3: 9 starts 67 rating; Yr 4: 0 start; Yr 5: gone. '06 1st QB: Young - Yr 1: 13 starts 67 rating; Yr 2: 15 starts 71 rating; Yr 3: 1 start 65 rating; Yr 4: 10 starts 83 rating; Yr 5: 8 starts 99 rating; Yr 6: gone. '06 2nd QB: Leinart - Yr 1: 11 starts 74 rating; Yr 2: 5 starts 62 rating; Yr 3: 0 starts; Yr 4: 1 start 65 rating; Yr 5: gone. '05 1st QB: Alex Smith - Yr 1: 7 starts 41 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 75 rating; Yr 3: 7 starts 57 rating; Yr 4: 0 starts; Yr 5: 10 starts 81 rating. '05 2nd QB: Rodgers - Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 0 starts; Yr 3: 0 starts; Yr 4: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts103 rating; Yr 6: 15 starts 101 rating; Yr 7: 15 starts 122 rating. '04 1st QB: Manning - Yr 1: 7 starts 55 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 76 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 74 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts 85 rating. '04 2nd QB: Rivers - Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 0 starts; Yr 3: 16 starts 92 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 82 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts105 rating. '03 1st QB: Palmer - Yr 1: 13 starts 77 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 101 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 87 rating; Yr 5: 4 starts 69 rating. '03 2nd QB: Leftwich - Yr 1: 13 starts 73 rating; Yr 2: 14 starts 82 rating; Yr 3: 11 starts 89 rating; Yr 4: 6 starts 79 rating; Yr 5: 2 starts 59 rating. '02 1st QB: Carr - Yr 1: 16 starts 63 rating; Yr 2: 11 starts 69 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 83 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts 82 rating. '02 2nd QB: Harrington - Yr 1: 12 starts 60 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 64 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 4: 11 starts 72 rating; Yr 5: 11 starts 68 rating You can now make the argument that RG3 is a guaranteed future HOF QB since that may turn out to be true. So now let's look at the QB ratings of some great QBs in NFL history during their first 2 seasons: Quarterback | Year 1 Rating | Year 2 rating Brees | 77 | 67 E Manning | 55 | 76 Plummer | 73 | 75 Bradford | 76 | 71 Steve Young | 57 | 65 Aikman | 56 | 67 Bledsoe | 65 | 74 Theismann | 58 | 62 Elway | 55 | 77 Simms | 66 | 59 Plunkett | 69 | 46 Bob Griese | 62 | 76 Fouts | 46 | 61 Pastorini | 44 | 57 Bradshaw |30 | 60 Am I expecting RG3 to develop into an elite QB? Yes. But I am also expecting to see him turn the ball over a lot this first season.
Here's some details behind what the coach is saying and Rich is reporting. I prepared this for HogsHaven a while back: Last 3 Rookie Franchise QBs' Pre-season Playing Time: - '11 – Cam Newton (Rookie, Heisman winner, 1st pick) (7 of 16 qtrs): Game 1: 2nd + 3rd qtrs. Game 2: 1st half. Game 3: 1st 3 qtrs. Game 4: 1st drive only. - '10 – Bradford (Rookie, former Heisman winner, 1st pick) (5 of 16 qtrs): Game 1: 2nd qtr. Game 2: 1st half. Game 3: 1st half. Game 4: 1st drive only. - '09 – Matthew Stafford (Rookie, 1st pick) (7 and a half of 16 qtrs): Game 1: late1st qtr and early 2nd qtr. Game 2: 2nd + 3rd qtrs. Game 3: final 3-1/2 qtrs. Game 4: 1st qtr.
Re: "probably went a little overboard yesterday when I calculated a QB rating for RG3 based on yesterday’s practice. But that doesn’t mean I won’t do it again." I believe I'm in the majority, Rich, when I say that article was enjoyable and much appreciated. We should have told you. Please keep 'em coming, Rich.
Thanks for posting a video, Rich. These should be a lot of fun moving forward.
I'd love to bet some money the Skins will find a way to keep Hurt. James Lee? Please no. Polumbus? Pretty please no. Cook? How is he even on the roster at this point!
Grossman-Beck 2011: 591 att, 265 comp. 58.5% Something is off here. The Grossman-Beck att and comp does not align with the completion% Also, these expectations seen extraordinarily high. These stats exclude fumbles, which are almost always excruciatingly high for rookie QBs. Worse, they don't in any way align to recent rookie QBs' performances. Here's the last 10 draft's top 2 QBs: ’11 Newton – 16 starts. (Record: 6-10) ’11 Locker - 0 starts. ’10 Bradford - 16 starts (QB rating: 76.5) ’10 Tebow - 3 starts. ’09 Stafford - 10 starts (QB rating: 61) ’09 Sanchez – 15 starts QB rating: 63) ’08 Ryan - 16 starts ’08 Flacco - 16 starts ’07 Russell - 1 start ’07 Quinn - 0 starts ’06 Vince Young - 13 starts (QB rating: 66.7) ’06 Matt Leinart - 11 starts (QB rating: 74) ’05 Alex Smith - 7 starts (QB rating: 41) ’05 Rodgers - 0 starts ’04 Manning - 7 starts (QB rating: 55) ’04 Rivers - 0 starts ’03 Palmer - 0 starts ’03 Leftwich - 13 starts (QB rating: 73) ’02 Carr - 16 starts (QB rating: 63) ’02 Harrington - 12 starts (QB rating: 60) Here's a few Stud QBs ratings their first 2 seasons: Quarterback | Year 1 Rating | Year 2 rating Brees | 77 | 67 E Manning | 55 | 76 Steve Young | 57 | 65 Aikman | 56 | 67 Bradford | 76 | 71 Bledsoe | 65 | 74 Plummer | 73 | 75 Theismann | 58 | 62 Elway | 55 | 77 Simms | 66 | 59 Plunkett | 69 | 46 Bob Griese | 62 | 76 Fouts | 46 | 61 Pastorini | 44 | 57 Bradshaw |30 | 60 I hope the town is not expecting too much from this young man his rookie season. Franchise QBs must be developed, no matter how highly they are drafted and how much potential they display playing at the collegiate level.
Another terrific article, Rich. Enjoyed your analysis on the career success of QBs who took the reigns beginning with the first game of their rookie season. It significantly altered my perspective on this.
We're constantly rewarded for being fans of All Pro Rich Tandler's articles, blog and tweets. Thank you, Rich.
Plenty of people try the patience of Rich Tandler. (Myself included from time to time, no doubt). But Wilbon is one of the few to ever inspire so much of Rich's ire.
A completely different take on Tannehill: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Last-word-on-Tannehill.html
One of the biggest reasons RG3 is a great fit for Washington is the Redskins' fan base believes he has an incredibly high ceiling or "upside" due to his extreme athleticism and college performance. This means the team and their fans will be far more patient with RG3 than they would have been with any other QB prospect. This is critical since most highly drafted rookie QBs are terrible their first 2 seasons. In other words, great NFL quarterbacks are DEVELOPED, not simply drafted. The reason this is relevant is because Tannehill is not perceived this way by the fan base. The fan base would NOT be patient while Tannehill developed/ struggled through his first two or three seasons. For this reason alone RG3 is the correct choice. The reasons why many people in the NFL talk about Tannehill's tremendous upside: • 6’4", 220 pounds. • 3-time ACADEMIC All-American. * 3,700 yards, 29 TDs this past season. * Tremendous speed and athleticism. Formerly was Texas A&M's LEADING wide receiver. * Throws beautifully tight spirals. * Expert at throwing while on the move. * Deadly accurate throwing short passes to receivers in stride. * Tremendous at throwing the ball with pinpoint accuracy into tight spaces. * Was successful in former Packers Head Coach Mike Sherman’s pro-style offense at Texas A&M. (In other words, he's already proven he's comfortable progressing through a series of reads after the ball is snapped.) * In Texas A&M’s VICTORY over RG3's Baylor this season Tannehill tossed 6 TDs. All this being said, I doubt Tannehill will become an NFL "franchise QB." He won't be given anywhere near the patience and number of seasons to develop as this year's two highest drafted QBs. Those MULTIPLE, patient seasons as a team's starter are critical for a franchise QB's development and eventual success. Quarterback | Year 1 Rating | Year 2 rating Brees | 77 | 67 E Manning | 55 | 76 Theismann | 58 | 62 Steve Young | 57 | 65 Aikman | 56 | 67 Elway | 55 | 77 Simms | 66 | 59 Plunkett | 69 | 46 Bob Griese | 62 | 76 Fouts | 46 | 61 Bledsoe | 65 | 74 Bradford | 76 | 71 Leinart | 74 | 62 Dilfer | 60 | 65 Pastorini | 44 | 57 Plummer | 73 | 75
Donovan makes some valid points. But he's knowingly distorting quite a bit. Here's one example among the many: Donovan: "In the Washington series, it’s pass first, then we run." Donovan knows better. He knows the WCO, particularly Bill Walsh's and Mike Shanahan's,UNDERSTANDS the importance of the running game and that's why they setup the run with the pass to keep the defense from having an advantage. Likewise, the WCO sets up the pass with the run. Donovan is well aware of this, and he's well aware of how important the running game is to Mike Shanahan. I might as well point out one more among the many of Donovan's distortions. Let's look at some history of Mike Shanahan's QBs and offenses. Mike Shanahan's offense ranked 2nd in the league in yardage with Cutler at QB. Before that, three seasons in a row Shanny's offense ranked in the top ten in both yardage AND points with Plummer at the helm. Maybe I'm piling on here, but previous to Mike's success with Cutler and Plummer, Mike had Griese (no, not Bob) at the helm. With journeyman Brian Griese, Mike's offense was 2nd in the league in yardage in '02. In 2000, again with Brian Griese at the helm, Mike Shanahan's offense was 2nd in the league in yardage AND scoring. Until Shanahan got a hold of Elway, John had already been in the league 12 years and never won a Super Bowl. His first 10 seasons in the league, all without Shanny, Elway turned the ball over more times than he scored TDs. Most significantly,the season before Shanny's arrival "Elway's team" went 7-7. By Shanny's second season Denver was at 13-3. Mike's 3rd and 4th seasons the Broncos won back to back Super Bowls, a RARE feat! But before coming to Denver and winning Super Bowls as a head coach, Mike was ALREADY wearing the Super Bowl ring he had earned as the offensive coordinator for a team that scored the third highest point total in Super Bowl history. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator of the 'Niners in '93. They had the NFL's #1 offense that season, his second as OC. His first season as OC, '92, the 'Niners also had the NFL's #1 offense. While this history with QBs is extensive and impressive, I failed to mention Mike Shanahan's dramatic effect on running backs. Shanny's 1,000+ yard backs: Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns and Tatum Bell. I, for one, beg to differ with your prognostication, Donovan.
Redskins QBs were able to run very few 5-step and 7-step drops last season due to the O line's terrible pass protection. This had a lot to do with it, as did AA's lack of separation on his deep routes. Kyle has specifically mentioned the receivers' lack of separation. It is the reason the team prioritized acquiring receivers in free agency. Kyle Shanahan, 6 weeks ago: "Our receivers’ lack of explosiveness and inability to get separation severely hampered our passing game this season. We had to rely on creative formations and precise route-running to produce openings." Kyle Shanahan, 5 weeks ago: "We have to give Rex some credit, he was the best playmaker we had on the field." http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/kyle-shanahan-rex-grossman-was-redskins-best-playmaker-in-2011/2012/02/01/gIQApealhQ_blog.html Mike Shanahan, 3 weeks ago: "Well, I think we were a playoff-caliber offense this year but we didn’t have the depth that you need to go through a season. You can’t lose your left tackle, your left guard, your center. You can’t lose your starting running back and tight end, especially your tight end that’s your best blocker in Chris Cooley. And then you lose Santana Moss for four or five games, and a guy like [Leonard] Hankerson who finally gets ready, he goes down." http://blog.redskins.com/2012/03/02/shanahan-driven-by-redskins-legacy/
Thank you for providing that interesting recent history, Rich.
Welcome to the Redskins, RG3.
The QBs we've dumped over the past 2 decades became Pro Bowlers 8 times AFTER leaving the Redskins.The Redskins QBs who "failed" have been to the Pro Bowl a combined 20 times. What are the odds the problem was every one of these QBs? Just a Few of the QBs Who Played in the Burgundy and Gold the Last 20 Seasons (and Were Dumped.) * Rich Gannon: 4 time Pro Bowler AFTER leaving Redskins. * Trent Green: 2 time Pro Bowler AFTER leaving Redskins. (102 QB rating in season immediately AFTER leaving Redskins.) * Brad Johnson: 2 time Pro Bowler, including 1 time AFTER leaving Redskins. (89 QB rating in season immediately before joining Redskins.) * Mark Brunell: 3 time Pro Bowler (QB rating of 90 in season immediately before joining Redskins.) * Donovan McNabb: 6 time Pro Bowler (QB rating of 93 in season immediately before joining Redskins.) * Mary Rypien: 2 time Pro Bowler, cut by Redskins. * Jason Campbell, 1st rounder, (led Raiders 6th Ranked offense in season immediately after leaving Redskins.) All running backs are the same when there's no hole to run through. Likewise, all quarterbacks are the same when there's no protection or open receivers. Counterintuitively, giving up so much for RG3 will aid the Redskins efforts at having a "franchise QB." RG3 will be given 4 seasons to prove himself. If you look at QBs' histories, 95% of them were not successful their first two to four seasons. The QBs who became successful were given multiple seasons to prove themselves, despite having terrible ratings and TD to turnover ratios.