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People "believe" in a given proposition about the future as a function of how difficult/easy it is for them to do something about that proposition.
Commented Jan 5, 2010 on Learning from economists' failure to see the Great Recession at Alex Pang's Future2: The Future of Futures
Learning from economists' failure to see the Great Recession
Carmen Medina (director of the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence) and Rebecca Fisher have an interesting article examining why economists had trouble forecasting the housing crisis / financial meltdown / etc. that we're living through, and what it suggests for other kinds of intelligenc...
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Jan 4, 2010
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