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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
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**Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Nick Bunker**: [Uncertainty means that the Fed should wait a while before shifting course. Given the current situation, this would mean waiting a while to raise interest rates and then rapidly raising rates when the time comes..."](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/uncertain-nature-natural-rate-interest) * **Whet Mozer**: [On Trevon Logan: Chicago: Highly Segregated By Any Measure](http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/March-2015/Chicago-Highly-Segregated-By-Any-Measure/) * **Nick Bunker**: ["The U.S. tax code is now the main vehicle for social policy in retirement, college savings, and housing. How well has this ‘submerged state’ worked? At least in these three areas, the effectiveness of the tax code, via deductions and credits, is questionable..."](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/unfulfilled-promise-tax-credits-economic-policy/) * **Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca**: ["Historians [will] look back on... 'Obamacare' [as] encourag[ing] a wave of innovation that gradually tamed the spiraling costs of a dysfunctional system, even as millions of previously excluded Americans gained access to health insurance..."](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-health-care-reform-policy-innovation-by-laura-tyson-and-lenny-mendonca-2014-12) * ["When 2,000 People Take a Daily Aspirin for Two Years: 1 Heart Attack is Prevented... about 3.6 people have heart attacks..."](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/upshot/can-this-treatment-help-me-theres-a-statistic-for-that.html) **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [Equitable Growth Conference in a Box: Topics](http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/03/04/equitable-growth-conference-box-topics/) * [The Very Puzzling Political Economy of King v. Burwell: Focus](http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/03/04/puzzling-political-economy-king-v-burwell-focus/) * [The Future of Weblogging in the Medium Run: The Honest Broker](http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/03/04/future-weblogging-medium-run-honest-broker/) * [Must-Read: Zachary... Continue reading
Posted 4 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Nick Bunker: Uncertainty means that the Fed should wait a while before shifting course. Given the current situation, this would mean waiting a while to raise interest rates and then rapidly raising rates when the time comes..." Continue reading
Posted 4 hours ago at Links
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**Glaukon:** So: Blogging... **Sokrates:** Indeed... **Hypatia:** I would like to start by offering the floor to the Great and Good Felix Salmon: **Felix Salmon**: [To All the Young Journalists Asking for Advice...](http://fusion.net/story/45832/to-all-the-young-journalists-asking-for-advice/): I’m also very flattered by the lovely things you said... about how you’d love to have a career in journalism... do[ing] the kind of thing... I do. You won’t.... By the time you’re my age... you’ll... be doing something... nobody today... foresee[s]....The obstacles facing you are much greater than anything I managed to overcome.... The exact same forces which are good for journalism and good for owners are the forces which are bad for journalists.... >I’m the happy recipient of a combination of luck and privilege... a long time paying my dues... very dry publications.... a decade learning about the real-world bond markets from the people who actually ran them.... When I found myself blogging the credit crisis, all that education paid off in spades. And the fact that I found myself blogging at all was itself an act of luck: I pretty much just happened to be in the right place at the right time... when the blogosphere was basically happy hour at The Magician.... >There’s no... Continue reading
Posted 7 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Zachary Tracer: Hospital Stocks Surge After Justice Kennedy Criticizes Obamacare Challenge Continue reading
Posted 10 hours ago at Links
**Lunchtime Must-Read: Zachary Tracer**: [Hospital Stocks Surge After Justice Kennedy Criticizes Obamacare Challenge](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=9616): "Tenet Healthcare Corp. and HCA Holdings Inc. led a rally among hospital companies as a Supreme Court challenge to Obamacare’s insurance subsidies drew questions from a pivotal justice... >...Anthony Kennedy... said Wednesday there is a ‘powerful’ point to the Obama administration’s argument that the health-care law would fall apart if the subsidies were ruled unlawful. ‘There is a serious constitutional problem,’ Kennedy said, if the court rules for the challengers’ attack on tax credits designed to help people afford insurance.... As of 11:28 a.m. in New York. Tenet was up 7.4 percent to $50.52, and HCA rose 7 percent to $75.71. Community Health Systems Inc. advanced 6.3 percent to $52.70. > Continue reading
Posted 10 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
"When 2,000 People Take a Daily Aspirin for Two Years: 1 Heart Attack is Prevented..." Continue reading
Posted 10 hours ago at Links
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: Ezra Klein, one of the *viri illustres* making us hope that the press corps over the next generation will actually be a net plus to the nation (cough, Judy Miller of the *New York Times*; cough, Fred Hiatt of the *Washington Post*) has a good post that, I think, misses one important point: **Ezra Klein**: [Republican States Suffer If Obamacare Loses at the Supreme Court](http://www.vox.com/2015/3/4/8147631/obamacare-supreme-court-red-states): "For Republicans, the challenge to Obamacare's individual mandate made good political sense... [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=9612 >...if the mandate was repealed, it would cripple the law.... The White House would have to agree to... at least root-and-branch reform. The challenge to Obamacare's subsidies makes less political sense: if the subsidies are ripped out of federal exchanges, it will only cripple the law in red states... [which] will be left with a policy disaster--and a hefty bill.... Republicans in those states will still be paying the taxes and bearing the spending cuts needed to fund Obamacare. They just won't be getting anything back. So the Republican plan... to fight Obamacare is for Republicans to rip themselves off.... This is why the GOP's political strategy is so bizarre.... The GOP is taking its... Continue reading
Posted 10 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: More often than I would have thought likely, people ask me: "We're thinking of having a conference about economic inequality What should be on the agenda?" My standard answer makes three points: 1. Have the conference about not inequality but [equitable growth](http://equitablegrowth.org). "Inequality" automatically forces you into a partisan political frame, and you may want to get there at the end of your conference but you probably do not want to start there. 2. Focus down: you cannot cover the whole topic--you need to pick one or two or three subtopics if you are going to get anywhere. 3. Have a balance between people who summarize past literatures and people who break new ground. But often they ask for more: a list of what the topics and issues are. [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=9608 So here it is: my Equitable Growth Conference in a Box: Topics ---- ###Equitable Growth Conference in a Box### **The Race Between Education and Technology** *How good a strategy is more higher education for overall economic growth, for raising middle-class standards?* * College funding and college attendance * College funding and college quality * College completion * New modes and orders in college... Continue reading
Posted 12 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Michael Tomasky: "[Michael Schmidt's *New York] Times* piece... says that there were ‘new’ regulations that Clinton was supposed to abide by.... So if these new regulations went into effect after she left State, then what rule did she violate, exactly?.... The [*New York] Times* has some questions to answer to:... Continue reading
Posted 14 hours ago at Links
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[James A. Garfield: Inaugural Address, 1881](http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres36.html): >Fellow-Citizens: >WE stand to-day upon an eminence which overlooks a hundred years of national life—a century crowded with perils, but crowned with the triumphs of liberty and law. Before continuing the onward march let us pause on this height for a moment to strengthen our faith and renew our hope by a glance at the pathway along which our people have traveled. >It is now three days more than a hundred years since the adoption of the first written constitution of the United States—the Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union. The new Republic was then beset with danger on every hand. It had not conquered a place in the family of nations. The decisive battle of the war for independence, whose centennial anniversary will soon be gratefully celebrated at Yorktown, had not yet been fought. The colonists were struggling not only against the armies of a great nation, but against the settled opinions of mankind; for the world did not then believe that the supreme authority of government could be safely intrusted to the guardianship of the people themselves. >We can not overestimate the fervent love of liberty, the intelligent courage, and the sum... Continue reading
Posted 14 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca: "Historians [will] look back on... 'Obamacare' [as] encourag[ing] a wave of innovation that gradually tamed the spiraling costs of a dysfunctional system, even as millions of previously excluded Americans gained access to health insurance..." Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Martin Wolf: Riches and Perils of the Fossil-Fuel Age Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
**Evening Must-Read: Martin Wolf**: [Riches and Perils of the Fossil-Fuel Age](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=9605): "In 2035, emissions of CO2 are forecast [by BP] to be 18bn tonnes above levels suggested by the International Energy Agency’s '450 Scenario'... >...Improvements in energy efficiency are a... more important driver of the relatively low growth in emissions than shifts in the fuel mix.... These forecasts... imply a faster rise in energy efficiency than between 2000 and 2013.... Could we do better?... We need an accelerated technological revolution.... The sense of the BP report... is that... obstacles are many: costs, technological limits, slow turnover of the capital stock, inability to implement policy globally and natural inertia.... If governments could agree to implement a tax on carbon, they would give a big impulse towards an energy future that is more efficient and less polluting... > Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Douglas A. Irwin: Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1930 Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
**Afternoon Must-Read: Douglas A. Irwin**: [Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1930](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=9601): "Direct empirical evidence on whether domestic consumers or foreign exporters bear the burden of a country's import duties is scarce... >...This paper examines the incidence of U.S. sugar duties using a unique set of high-frequency (weekly, and sometimes daily) data on the landed and the duty-inclusive price of raw sugar in New York City from 1890 to 1930, a time when the United States consumed more than 20 percent of world sugar production and was therefore plausibly a 'large' country. The results reveal a striking asymmetry: a tariff reduction is immediately passed through to consumer prices with no impact on the import price, whereas about 40 percent of a tariff increase is passed through to consumer prices and 60 percent borne by foreign exporters. The apparent explanation for the asymmetric response is the asymmetric response of demand: imports collapse upon a tariff increase, but do not surge after a tariff reduction. > >[UC Berkeley Events Calendar: Seminar 211, 237, and 281, History, Macro, and International: Doug Irwin: Tariff Incidence: Evidence from US Sugar Duties, 1890-1930](http://events.berkeley.edu/index.php/calendar/sn/econ.html?event_ID=85003&date=2015-03-03&filter=Secondary Event Type&filtersel=1061) Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Daily Economic History:** From George Dangerfield: [The Era of Good Feelings](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0929587146/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0929587146&linkCode=as2&tag=brde-20&linkId=5VKBBJWVN5KZAUED): >Indeed, when one attempts to restore [Chief Justice John Marshall] to the context of his times, it becomes exceedingly—difficult to separate the business—minded judge from the nationalist statesman.... In his decision on the case of Gibbons v. Ogden, Marshall struck down a steamboat monopoly, and did as much as any single man could do to make the steamboat free upon the western rivers; and the steamboat was not merely an essential factor in the development of the internal market, it was also the very symbol of democracy.... He gained much popularity from his decision, and he might have established the “dormant” power of the commerce clause—that is to say, its implicit veto upon state legislation—without too much disagreement from the rest of the Court. Instead, he merely suggested—and in terms that may have been deliberately confused—the existence of the dormant power.... “We must never forget,” he once said, “that it is a constitution we are expounding...” something organic, capable of growth, susceptible to change.... >There are numberless stories attesting him the most democratic of men: stories of Marshall ambling to market with a basket on his arm and stopping... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
South Coast Portuguese Fish Chowder Recipe Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Heather Boushey: Taxes and Fairness in an Era of High Inequality Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
**Afternoon Must-Read: Heather Boushey**: [Taxes and Fairness in an Era of High Inequality](http://equitablegrowth.org/research/taxation-fairness-era-high-inequality/): "(1) As inequality has increased, the tax code has not kept pace with this change... >...The tax code does less to reduce inequality than it did in the late 1970s. (2) Efforts to reduce inequality are not in tension with economic growth.... (3) There are policy options that can make the tax code more progressive that will have broad benefits for everyone.... There are many examples of changes that would be consistent with the literature. Two that are on the table right now would be Eliminating the “stepped-up basis” for taxation of bequests and expanding the Child Tax Credit.... Families passing along large estates to children... the potential damages that could have on the vitality of the economy... a loophole we should close... eliminating the carried interest loophole... transfer taxes, raising the ordinary income tax rates or limiting deductions and exclusions. We can also do a variety of things at the low end.... The Child Tax Credit... partially refundable for a set percentage of income (15 percent) over a set threshold (currently $3,000). The value of the tax credit has been increased and the threshold decreased, both... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Tadich Grill: Hangtown Fry Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Susan Jacoby: The First Victims of the First Crusade Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Nick Bunker: "The U.S. tax code is now the main vehicle for social policy in retirement, college savings, and housing. How well has this ‘submerged state’ worked? At least in these three areas, the effectiveness of the tax code, via deductions and credits, is questionable..." Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Whet Mozer: On Trevon Logan: Chicago: Highly Segregated By Any Measure Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
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The estimable Miles Kimball emails that after , he wonders whether 1920-1921 is not perhaps worthy of more attention. I agree that it is a very interesting episode: it appears to be the only time in American history in which significant deflationary pressure did not produce a prolonged, deep, grinding slump. Certainly we see a prolonged, deep, grinding slump today; we saw one in the 1930s; and we think we see one back in the Jacksonian era with Jackson's war on the Second Bank of the United States. But I do not think it has any lessons at all for us today. It came just after the World War I inflation had boosted the price level and eroded the economy's debt levels. Thus there was no chance of Fisherman debt-deflation or Koovian balance-sheet recession forces taking hold. And the fact that the run up in wages has been so recent meant that downward wage stickiness was effectively nil. Thus that nominal rigidity that turns a fall in nominal demand into a fall in real production and then to the flight of the Confidence Fairy in the face of general depression was simply absent. David Frum has just had some smart... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...