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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
**Should-Read: Miriam Burstein**: _[Two Cheers for Academic Blogging?][]_: "The most important changes, it seems to me, have taken place outside individual university folds, not within... [Two Cheers for Academic Blogging?]: >...Blogging has helped some academics loosen up their clogged prose... facilitated networking... promoted public outreach.... The flip side of... Continue reading
I find myself thinking of Ludger Schuknecht's very powerful and apposite comments about just what, even if you believe--as I do--that there are substantial spillovers for Germany and for the world for Germany to use its fiscal space for expansionary policies right now, it is supposed to use its fiscal... Continue reading
**Osip Mandelstam**: _[The Wolf-Fanged Age][]_: >On my shoulders pounces the wolf-fanged age, But I am no wolf by my blood; Thrust me, instead, like a hat up the sleeve Of the Siberian steppe’s warm fur coat, >So I can’t see the coward or the soft bit of grime Or the... Continue reading
**Live Not from Chicago:** Why, yes, I am cursed trying to fly into snowy places in January for AEA meetings, so I engage in passive resistance and try to avoid doing so. Why do you ask? East of the Cascade Range and north of the Ohio River in January? Just... Continue reading
**Scott Lemieux**: _[Today in False Equivalence][]_: "I am beginning to wonder why I subscribe.... [Anemona Hartocollis]... >>Bias incidents on both sides have been reported. A student walking near campus was threatened with being lit on fire because she wore a hijab. Other students were accused of being racist for supporting... Continue reading
**Must-Read: Tony Yates**: _[The Perceived-Grievance-Wrong-Headed Sop Vortex][]_: "A desire to respond to the perceived grievances of those who voted to give incumbent governments a kick... [The Perceived-Grievance-Wrong-Headed Sop Vortex]: >...But in so far as these grievances are not genuine, responding to them in ways that harm everyone and don’t... Continue reading
**Live from Tea Party Headquarters: Jonathan Chait**: _[Donald Trump Has Proven Liberals Right About the Tea Party][]_: "Conservatives insisted that what spurred protesters... were the timeless principles of conservative movement thought... [Donald Trump Has Proven Liberals Right About the Tea Party]: >...advocacy of balanced budgets, adherence to a strict... Continue reading
**Should-Read: Roberto Bonfatti and Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke**: _[Growth, Import Dependence and War][]_: "Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a follower who is catching up... [Growth, Import Dependence and War]: >...since the follower cannot credibly commit to not... Continue reading
The very sharp Ken Rogoff predicts a boom over the next four years: "The biggest missing piece... is business investment, and if it starts kicking in... output and productivity could begin to rise very sharply.... You don’t have to be a nice guy to get the economy going.... It is... Continue reading
**Comment of the Day: Sherman Robinson**: _[On the Economics of BREXIT][]_: "I largely agree with Simon Wren-Lewis’s comments, and with the quote from Maurice Obstfeld... >...The trade-productivity links they discuss, as Wren-Lewis notes, “all make common sense”. [On the Economics of BREXIT]: >However, I think it is very important... Continue reading
**Must-Read:** On one level, simply do not panic: Obama12 52.9%, Obama08 51.0%, Bush04 50.7%, Gore00 48.4%, Kerry04 48.3%, Clinton16 48.0%, Bush00 47.9%, Romney12 47.2%, Trump16 46.2%, McCain08 45.7%. This is the same country with the same activated political coalitions we have seen since 2000. Trump and social media have simply... Continue reading
**Over at [Equitable Growth]( Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Nick Bunker**: _[How tight is the U.S. labor market? And how tight do we want it? - Equitable Growth][]_ * **Mark Thoma**: _[How social welfare benefits help the economy][]_: "Donald Trump has, at times, said he’ll protect Medicare and Social Security... *... Continue reading
**Should-Read: Barry Ritholtz**: _[Putting the Minimum Wage Debate into Context][]_: "The modern minimum-wage debate traces back to... Krueger and... Card... [Putting the Minimum Wage Debate into Context]: >...In the fast-food industry... no reduction in job growth in the market where pay was increased.... Many subsequent studies confirmed... [taht] modest... Continue reading
**Time** (1939): _[Adolf Hitler: Man of the Year, 1938][]_: "What Adolf Hitler & Co. did to Germany in less than six years was applauded wildly and ecstatically by most Germans... [Adolf Hitler: Man of the Year, 1938]:,9171,760539-1,00.html >...He lifted the nation from post-War defeatism. Under the swastika Germany was... Continue reading
**Should-Read: Josh Marshall**: _[This Explains How and Why Medicare Will Live or Die][]_: "John Boozman (R) of Arkansas... [This Explains How and Why Medicare Will Live or Die]: >...'Well, if the president goes first, and then if I see Republicans AND Democrats jump and then if the American people... Continue reading
**Should-Read: Kevin Daly**: _[A higher global risk premium and the fall in equilibrium real interest rates][]_: "Since the turn of the century, the global economy has also been characterised by a rise in the yields on quoted equity... [A higher global risk premium and the fall in equilibrium real interest... Continue reading
**Should-Read: Mark Thoma**: _[How social welfare benefits help the economy][]_: "Donald Trump has, at times, said he’ll protect Medicare and Social Security... [How social welfare benefits help the economy]: >...But given Trump’s plans to cut taxes and raise the national debt by trillions over the next decade, and the... Continue reading
The Thursday night before the 2000 election I gave a talk at St. Mary's College, trying to present the Bush and Gore points of view as fairly as I could... In the course of that talk I said I hoped that whoever won the popular vote would become the next... Continue reading
**John Maynard Keynes** (1919): _[The Economic Consequences of the Peace][]_: "After 1870 there was developed on a large scale an unprecedented situation, and the economic condition of Europe became during the next fifty years unstable and peculiar... [The Economic Consequences of the Peace]: >...The pressure of population on food...... Continue reading
**Over at [Equitable Growth]( Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Heather Boushey**: _[Distributional National Accounts and measuring 21st century growth - Equitable Growth][]_ * **Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman**: _[Distributional national accounts: Methods and estimates for the United States - Equitable Growth][]_: * _[Note: Our Stabilization Policy Dilemma - Equitable... Continue reading
**Must-Read:** Never bet on an inside straight. Never eat at a place called "Mom's". Never go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line. And never construct a currency union vastly larger than any conceivable optimal currency area: **Martin Wolf**: _[More Perils for the Eurozone][]_: "Divergence in the... Continue reading
**Comment of the Day: Tim Worstall**: _[John Stuart Mill (1848, 1871)][]_: "I'm unconvinced. I think this is the same mistake Keynes made with econ poss for the grandkiddies... >...Missing household unpaid labour. [John Stuart Mill (1848, 1871)]: >By 1848 hand spinning was entirely done and gone. And that had... Continue reading
**Should-Read**: I want the opinion of Sherman Robinson of IFPRI and PIIE on this: Sherman? **Simon Wren-Lewis**: _[The OBR and the Impact of Brexit][]_: "The debate about whether the OBR is being too pessimistic about the impact of Brexit... [The OBR and the Impact of Brexit]: >...lower immigration from... Continue reading
**Live from Nineteenth-Century London: John Stuart Mill** (1848, 1871): _[Principles of Political Economy][]_: "Hitherto it is questionable if all the mechanical inventions yet made have lightened the day's toil of any human being... [Principles of Political Economy]: >...They have enabled a greater population to live the same life of... Continue reading
Q: Have BREXIT and Trump increased the probability of a breakup of the eurozone? A: Yes. That Britain voted for BREXIT, even under the false pretense of an extra 350 million pounds a week for the health service, is a strong indication that the tide of globalization and integration is... Continue reading