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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
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**Barry Eichengreen**: _[Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy][]_: >It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks. Having done this twice before, in 2011 and 2013, this affords me the opportunity not... Continue reading
**Must-Read: Barry Eichengreen**: _[Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy][]_: >It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks... [Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy]: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/full-conference-volume-AEPC-2015.pdf >Having done this... Continue reading
**Must-Read:** Nick Rowe continues his long twilight struggle to try to explain what is really going on in the New Keynesian DSGE model to the world. I think this is a Sisyphean task: **Nick Rowe**: _[Cheshire Cats and New Keynesian Central Banks][]_: >How can money disappear from a New Keynesian... Continue reading
**Must-Read: hrtbps**: _[Your Workplace Requires People to Call You: “My Right Honourable Friend”!][]_: If your workplace requires people to call you “my right honourable friend”, don’t talk to me about safe spaces https://t.co/mS0M3EmuuG— hrtbps (@hrtbps) September 14, 2016 [Your Workplace Requires People to Call You: “My Right Honourable Friend”!]: https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/776025681016786945 Continue reading
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**Must-Read:** Since Dick Schmalensee left the GHWB Council of Economic Advisers, it has been nearly impossible to get any Republicans on board for a serious push to do smart pro-growth regulatory reform--patents, copyrights, occupational licensing, land-use NIMBYism. Instead, Republicans' ideas of regulatory "reform" have been either a broad-brush approach that... Continue reading
**Taped from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna:** One reason we are in so much trouble now is that our TV and newspaper "journalists" have spent and continue to spend so much of their time and energy grasping at straws and finding excuses to normalize that which not should be normalized. Sarah... Continue reading
**Must-Read: Mark Pesce**: _[Zombie Moore's Law: Hardware Eats Software][]_: >Intel announce some next-generation CPUs that aren’t very much faster... delays... some of its 10nm process CPUs; and Apple’s new A10 chip, powering iPhone 7, is as one of the fastest CPUs ever... [Zombie Moore's Law: Hardware Eats Software]: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/22/the_evolution_of_moores_law_suggests_hardware_is_eating_software/ >Intel’s... Continue reading
_[The Productivity Puzzle][]_: >On September 9, 2016 the Initiative on Business and Public Policy and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings hosted a forum on the policy implications of the growth slowdown. [The Productivity Puzzle]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dojtWYrjnbc&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BrookingsInstitution Continue reading
**Live from Trumpland: David Frum**: _[Donald Trump and the Seven Broken Guardrails of Democracy][]_: >Many conservatives and Republicans recognize Trump as a disaster for their institutions and their ideals. Yet they have found it impossible to protect things they hold dear... [Donald Trump and the Seven Broken Guardrails of Democracy]:... Continue reading
**Must-Read:** The conventional wisdom in the communities in which I sit is that commercial bankers are being extremely stressed by the fact that interest rates are so low and they cannot charge for deposits. The longer-run point that raising interest rates may well crash the economy and crash the value... Continue reading
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**Live from Trumpland**: Various twits are telling me that the [Economists for Trump][]--Eugene Fama in the lead, with June O'Neill, Richard Vedder, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Larry Kudlow, Arthur Laffer, David Malpass, James Miller III, Steve Moore, and a half-dozen or so others--are not for Trump, but rather "Concerned by Hillary Clinton's... Continue reading
**David Glasner**: _[Paul Romer on Modern Macroeconomics, Or, the “All Models Are False” Dodge][]_: >I was just curious about where the little phrase “all models are false” came from.... I found... the British statistician, G. E. P. Box who wrote in his paper “Science and Statistics” based on his R.... Continue reading
**Comment of the Day: Phil Koop**: _[Weekend Reading: Richard Feynman: Cargo Cult Science][]_: >I also thought of this [Feynmann speech] when I read Gellman's rant. There is nothing wrong with [Gellman's] timeline per se, and he even correctly diagnoses the underlying problem, which is experimental design, not the technicalities of... Continue reading
**KyForward.com**: _[Annual re-enactment of 1778 Siege of Boonesborough scheduled for Sept. 24-25][]_: >Fort Boonesborough State Park will host its annual “1778 Siege of Boonesborough” weekend, Sept. 24-25.... The event commemorates the September 1778 attack on the fort by Native Americans and French Canadians during the Revolutionary War. The settlers in... Continue reading
---- >This you knows. The years travel fast. And time after time I've done the Tell. But this ain 't one body's Tell. It's the Tell of us all. And you got to listen it and 'member. 'Cause what you hears today, you got to tell the newborn tomorrow. I's... Continue reading
**Live from Trumpland:** Blind Squirrel: **(1) Erica Grieder** (2011): _[The Trash Talker: Why Rick Perry Will Thrive][]_: >On the issues where he has been motivated to mastery... [Perry] typically has a commanding grasp of the facts. When I’ve interviewed him, I’ve been most concerned about economic issues, and have found... Continue reading
**Richard Feynman** (1974): _[Cargo Cult Science][]_: >During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. (Another crazy idea of the Middle Ages is these hats we have on today—which is too loose in my case.) Then a... Continue reading
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must-Reads:** * **Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland**: _[Rethinking Inflation Targets for Long ZLB Episodes][]_: The estimated frequencies and durations are quite sensitive to individual country experiences... * **Robert Novy-Marx**: _[Is Momentum Really Momentum?][]_: Momentum is primarily driven by firms’ performance... Continue reading
**Comment of the Day: Invhand**: _[Musings on "Just Deserts" and the Opening of Plato's Republic][]_: >I would like to recommend to those musing on 'just deserts' The New Society by Peter Drucker (1950)... [Musings on "Just Deserts" and the Opening of Plato's Republic]: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/09/musings-on-just-deserts-and-the-opening-of-platos-republic-greg-mankiw-defending-the-1-proposes-what-he-cal.html?cid=6a00e551f08003883401bb09382a45970d#comment-6a00e551f08003883401bb09382a45970d >For a management guy, Drucker is... Continue reading
**Comment of the Day: Kaleberg**: _[AI][]_: >One of the problems is that we don't always call them robots... [AI]: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/09/must-read-kaila-colbin-_the-real-reason-this-elephant-chart-is-terrifying_-a-shock-and-awe-wake-up-call-about.html?cid=6a00e551f08003883401b7c89215da970b#comment-6a00e551f08003883401b7c89215da970b >For example: We don't have robot lawyers, but we have eliminated thousands of lawyers and paralegals using advanced search algorithms, information retrieval and text processing. We don't have robot receptionists,... Continue reading
**Must-Read: Ernesto Dal Bo, Pablo Hernandez, and Sebastian Mazzuca**: _[The Paradox of Civilization: Pre-Institutional Sources of Security and Prosperity][]_: >The rise of civilizations involved the dual emergence of economies that could produce surplus (“prosperity”) and states that could protect surplus (“security”)... [The Paradox of Civilization: Pre-Institutional Sources of Security and... Continue reading
**[Over at Project Syndicate][1]: The Long-Run Economic Trend is Our Friend** These are days of grave disappointment at the state of the world. Sinister forces of fanatic religion-linked murder that we thought had been largely scotched by 1750 are back. They have been joined by and are reinforcing forces of... Continue reading
**Must-Read: Zach Beauchamp**: _[A Conservative Intellectual Explains][]_: >Samuel Goldman is one of America’s most thoughtful conservatives... [A Conservative Intellectual Explains]: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/22/12892682/donald-trump-samuel-goldman >Recently, Goldman has come to an uncomfortable conclusion: The conservative movement has failed. Its traditional package of ideas — free market economics, social conservatism, and an interventionist foreign policy... Continue reading
**Live from the Wretched Hive of Scum and Villainy that Is Twitter: Storify**: _[On the Suspension of Glenn Reynolds from Twitter][]_: [On the Suspension of Glenn Reynolds from Twitter]: https://storify.com/delong/on-the-suspension-of-glenn-reynolds-from-twitter [View the story "On the Suspension of Glenn Reynolds from Twitter..." on Storify] Continue reading
**Must-Read: Anna Valero and John van Reenen**: _[The Economic Impact of Universities: Evidence from Across the Globe][]_: >15,000 universities in about 1,500 regions across 78 countries, some dating back to the 11th Century.... [The Economic Impact of Universities: Evidence from Across the Globe]: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22501#fromrss >Increases in the number of universities... Continue reading