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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
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Hoisted from the Archives from Four Years Ago: [What is Happening with Bond Prices? (Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...)][ref]: It is very hard to have a bubble in bonds because there is a date certain at which the principal is repaid. In year nine you cannot delude yourself into thinking that somebody will pay more than face value in year ten. And so in eight it is very hard to delude yourself into thinking that somebody in year nine will delude themselves into thinking that somebody will pay more than face value in year ten. Nevertheless, Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz think that we are in a bond bubble: [ref]: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/08/what-is-happening-with-bond-prices.html (What is Happening with Bond Prices? (Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...) :: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/08/what-is-happening-with-bond-prices.html) >The Great American Bond Bubble: If 10-year interest rates, which are now 2.8%, rise to 4% as they did last spring, bondholders will suffer a capital loss more than three times the current [annual] yield. Ten years ago we experienced the biggest bubble in U.S. stock market history.... A similar bubble is expanding today that may have far more serious consequences for investors. It is in bonds, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds. Investors, disenchanted with the stock market, have... Continue reading
Posted 1 hour ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
As a follow up to Politico's embrace of BP, a correspondent reminds me of Politico from two years ago. Scott Lemieux does the garbage cleanup: >I’ve Had Enough Of You Water-Drinking, Air-Breathing Urban Elitists: [M]y favorite part of the Politico’s war on Nate Silver. As others have pointed out, [Dylan Byers's] botched hack cliche is comedy gold: >>For this reason and others--and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis.--more than a few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues, believe Silver is highly overrated. >Look, I knew those snooty elitists in Seattle and San Francisco looked down on me and my kind, but now you tell me that they drink coffee? No real American would ever be caught dead consuming this obscure product. I tell you, every election cycle it becomes harder to be a regular American. White wine, Lipton Green Tea, orange juice, Grey Poupon, coffee--every day you discover some product that my relatives in rural Saskatchewan would always have in their pantry that marks you as an out-of-touch urban elitist in the eyes of D.C.-based Ivy Leaguers. Continue reading
Posted 1 hour ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Wikipedia:** [Battle of Leyte Gulf](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Leyte_Gulf#The_submarine_action_in_Palawan_Passage_.2823_October.29): >As it sortied from its base in Brunei, Kurita's powerful 'Center Force' consisted of five battleships (Yamato, Musashi, Nagato, Kongō, and Haruna), ten heavy cruisers (Atago, Maya, Takao, Chōkai, Myōkō, Haguro, Kumano, Suzuya, Tone and Chikuma), two light cruisers (Noshiro and Yahagi) and 15 destroyers. >Kurita's ships passed Palawan Island around midnight on 22–23 October. The American submarines Darter and Dace were positioned together on the surface close by. At 00:16 on 23 October, Darter '​s radar detected the Japanese formation at a range of 30,000 yd (27,000 m). Her captain promptly made visual contact. The two submarines quickly moved off in pursuit of the ships, while Darter made the first of three contact reports. At least one of these was picked up by a radio operator on Yamato, but Kurita failed to take appropriate antisubmarine precautions. >Darter and Dace traveled on the surface at full power for several hours and gained a position ahead of Kurita's formation, with the intention of making a submerged attack at first light. This attack was unusually successful. At 05:24, Darter fired a spread of six torpedoes, at least four of which hit Kurita's flagship, the heavy cruiser Atago. Ten... Continue reading
Posted 2 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [For Thursday: Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/21/thursday-josh-bivens-brad-delong-jeff-madrick-ylan-mui-mainstream-economic-thinking-imperils-america/) * [Morning Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: Keeping It Like the Kaiser - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/21/morning-must-read-richard-mayhew-keeping-like-kaiser/) * [Morning Must-Read: Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/22/morning-must-read-note-politico-label-advertisements-advertisements/) * [Morning Must-Read: Charles Steindel: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/22/morning-must-read-charles-steindel-monetary-policy-fiscal-policy/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Morning of October 22, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/22/things-read-morning-october-22-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Lawrence MacDonald and Jing Cao:** [The Sudden Rise of Carbon Taxes, 2010–2030](http://www.cgdev.org/publication/sudden-rise-carbon-taxes) * **Larry Mishel:** [Economist: Skills, Tech Gap Can’t Explain Inequality](http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/20/skills-and-tech-gap-cant-explain-inequality-economist-says/) * **William C. Dudley:** [Enhancing Financial Stability by Improving Culture in the Financial Services Industry](http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2014/dud141020a.html) * **Danny Vinik:** [The Federal Reserve Should Not End Its Quantitative Easing Program](http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119930/federal-reserve-should-not-end-its-quantitative-easing-program) * **Charles Steindel:** [For Thursday... How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/10/thursday-josh-bivens-brad-delong-jeff-madrick-ylan-mui-how-mainstream-economic-thinking-imperils-america.html?cid=6a00e551f08003883401b8d0825905970c#comment-6a00e551f08003883401b8d0825905970c) * Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements: **Geoff Morrell:** [No, BP Didn't Ruin the Gulf](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/gulf-coast-recovery-expectations-112088.html?ml=m_b1_1#.VEfDo4chQsp) * **Richard Mayhew:** [Keeping it like the Kaiser](http://www.balloon-juice.com/2014/10/21/keeping-it-like-the-kaiser/) * **Noah Smith:** [Forecasting Is Risky, Especially About the Future](http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-21/forecasting-is-risky-especially-about-the-future) **And Over Here:**... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Stolen from My quality of life is diminished by the fact that I am not a fluent reader of rot13. Is there a good online drill site? Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
[Battle of Leyte Gulf: Background](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Leyte_Gulf): >On 12 October 1944, the US 3rd Fleet under Admiral Halsey began a series of carrier raids against Formosa and the Ryukyu Islands, with a view to ensuring that the aircraft based there could not intervene in the Leyte landings. The Japanese command therefore put Shō-Gō 2 into action, launching waves of air attacks against 3rd Fleet's carriers. In what Morison refers to as a 'knock-down, drag-out fight between carrier-based and land-based air', the Japanese were routed, losing 600 aircraft in three days, almost their entire air strength in the region. Following the American invasion of the Philippines, the Japanese Navy made the transition to Shō-Gō 1. >Shō-Gō 1 called for Vice-Admiral Jisaburō Ozawa's ships—known as the 'Northern Force'—to lure the main American covering forces away from Leyte. Northern Force would be built around several aircraft carriers, but these would have very few aircraft or trained aircrew. The carriers would serve as the main bait. As the US covering forces were lured away, two other surface forces would advance on Leyte from the west. The 'Southern Force' under Vice Admirals Shoji Nishimura and Kiyohide Shima would strike at the landing area via the Surigao Strait.... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
[Doughlas MacArthur](http://ww2today.com/20-october-1944-general-macarthur-i-have-returned-to-the-philippines): >This is the Voice of Freedom, General MacArthur speaking. >People of the Philippines: I have returned. >By the grace of Almighty God our forces stand again on Philippine soil – soil consecrated in the blood of our two peoples. We have come, dedicated and committed to the task of destroying every vestige of enemy control over your daily lives, and of restoring, upon a foundation of indestructible strength, the liberties of your people. >At my side is your President, Sergio Osmena, worthy successor of that great patriot, Manuel Quezon, with members of his cabinet. The seat of your government is now therefore firmly re-established on Philippine soil. >The hour of your redemption is here. Your patriots have demonstrated an unswerving and resolute devotion to the principles of freedom that challenges the best that is written on the pages of human history. >I now call upon your supreme effort that the enemy may know from the temper of an aroused and outraged people within that he has a force there to contend with no less violent than is the force committed from without. >Rally to me. Let the indomitable spirit of Bataan and Corregidor lead on. As the lines... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth:**](http://equitablegrowth.ms.techprogress.org/?p=7126)**Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui:** [How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/how-mainstream-economic-thinking-imperils-america-registration-13637789997): Thursday, October 23, 2014 1:00 - 2: 30 p.m. ET Economic Policy Institute 1333 H St., NW Suite 300 Washington, DC 20005 Advice about what points I should try to hit would be most welcome... ---- ##DRAFT PRESENTATION SLIDES:## ###On Jeff Madrick: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America### J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley For Delivery: 2014-10-23 Prepared: 2014-10-22 ---- **Jeff Madrick's Seven Bad Ideas** 1. The "Invisible Hand" 2. Say's Law 3. Friedman's Folly: Government's Limited Social Role 4. Low Inflation Is All That Matters 5. There Are No Bubbles 6. Globalization Is Always Good 7. Economics Is a Science ---- **In Madrick's Introduction*** * Praised in the Introduction: John Maynard Keynes, Dani Rodrik * Criticized in the Introduction: 1. Adam Smith--no comment necessary... 2. Olivier Blanchard--the *de facto* leader of the Sixth International: on the left of the spectrum of policymakers... 3. Larry Summers--principal advocate of the Keynesian expansionary-fiscal solution to our troubles... 4. Milton Friedman--when he was alive, the most powerful advocate of unlimited quantitative easing... 5. Bob Rubin--on his watch big banks were bailed-in during financial crises, not bailed-out... 6.... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Jason Hart:** [Gov. Kasich: God Wants Ohio to Expand Medicaid](http://www.redstate.com/diary/jasonahart/2013/06/19/gov-kasich-god-wants-ohio-to-expand-medicaid/): "Governor John Kasich, a Republican, repeated his insistence that God wants Ohio to expand Medicaid... >...when reporters brought up the topic on June 18. Kasich suggested anyone who opposes Medicaid expansion will have to answer for their opposition when they die. Gov. Kasich said he recently told a state legislator: >>I respect the fact that you believe in small government. I do too. I also happen to know that you’re a person of faith. Now, when you die and get to the, get to the, uh, to the meeting with St. Peter, he’s probably not gonna ask you much about what you did about keeping government small, but he’s going to ask you what you did for the poor. Better have a good answer.... >Kasich leaned heavily on his Christian faith to push the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) Medicaid expansion during his February 19 State of the State address, implying the only options were to dramatically increase entitlement spending or leave Ohio’s poor ‘out in the street’... **Jonathan Chait:** [John Kasich Just Got Extremely Real on Obamacare](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/10/john-kasich-just-got-extremely-real-on-obamacare.html): "There are certain rules you have to play by... >...in... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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### **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [On the Proper Inflation Target: Monday Focus for October 20, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/proper-inflation-target-monday-focus-october-20-2014/) * **Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman:** [Exploding wealth inequality in the United States - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/research/exploding-wealth-inequality-united-states/) * **Nick Bunker:** [Thomas Piketty, depreciation and the elasticity of substitution - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/thomas-piketty-depreciation-elasticity-substitution/) * [Morning Must-Read: Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez: Unemployment, and Product and Labour-Market Tightness - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/19/morning-must-read-pascal-michaillat-emmanuel-saez-unemployment-product-labour-market-tightness/) * **:** [Morning Must-Read: Daniel Davies: European Banking Stress Tests-Pour Encourager les Autres? - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/morning-must-read-daniel-davies-european-banking-stress-tests-pour-encourager-les-autres/) * [Morning Must-Read: Paul Kasriel: The Monetary Base and the Money Multiplier: U.S. and Eurozone - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/morning-must-read-paul-kasriel-monetary-base-money-multiplier-u-s-eurozone/) * [Morning Must-Read: Daniel Drezner: Five Known Unknowns About the Future of the Global Economy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/morning-must-read-daniel-drezner-five-known-unknowns-future-global-economy/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Afternoon of October 20, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/things-read-afternoon-october-20-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Katie McDonough:** [The right’s Lena Dunham delusion: Anger, misogyny and the dangers of business as usual](http://www.salon.com/2014/10/17/the_rights_lena_dunham_delusion_anger_misogyny_and_the_dangers_of_business_as_usual/) * **Ha-Joon Chang:** [Why did Britain’s political class buy into the Tories’ economic fairytale?](http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/19/britain-political-class-tories-economic-fairytale) * **Wolfgang Münchau:** [Eurozone stagnation is a... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: In the 60 years since 1954, the Federal Reserve has been moved to cut the 3-Mo. T-Bill rate when a recession threatens by 2.0%-points or more 13 times--once every 4.6 years. There have been eight cuts of 4.0%-points or more--once every 7.5 years. There have been five cuts of 5.0%-points or more--once every 12 years. To me that suggests that the Greenspan-Bernanke policies--aim for 2.0%/year inflation, with a 300 basis-point "natural" short-term safe real interest rate on top of that when the economy is in the growth-along-the-potential-path phase of the business cycle--were already too restrictive. Once every 12 years is too often to run into ZLB problems, unless you are a strong believer in [Coibion and Gorodnichenko arguments](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/01/chung-laforte-reifschneider-and-williams-vs-colbion-gorodnichenko-and-wieland.html) that price inertia is due to serious costs to businesses of altering price paths. [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.ms.techprogress.org/?p=7099 If you hold, with Jeremy Stein, that you are asking for trouble when T-Bill rates drop below 2%/year, and if you believe that secular factors have reduced the "natural" short-term safe real interest rate when the economy is in the growth-along-the-potential-path phase of the business cycle to 2%, and if you wish to have a 600 basis-point cushion to allow... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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Note that these are the *cities* themselves--what lies within the municipal boundaries--not the metropolitan areas: **Cory Doctorow:** [American cities, ranked by conservatism](http://boingboing.net/2014/10/20/american-cities-ranked-by-con.html): "A fascinating chart from Representation in Municipal Government... >...published in American Political Science Review and written by MIT political scientists Chris Tausanovitch and Christopher Warshaw. (via Bruce Sterling): ---- [refAmerican cities, ranked by conservatism - Boing Boing]: http://boingboing.net/2014/10/20/american-cities-ranked-by-con.html (American cities, ranked by conservatism - Boing Boing :: http://boingboing.net/2014/10/20/american-cities-ranked-by-con.html) Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
A correspondent reminds me of this from a couple of years ago, that I now hoist from the archives: Hoisted from the Archives: [The New York Times Publishes Casey Mulligan as a Joke, Doesn't It?][refmulligan]: Why oh why can't we have a better press corps? This is really embarrassing, New York Times: really, really embarrassing: 1. The first joke comes in Casey Mulligan's first paragraph: the Fed does not lend money to banks on an overnight basis at the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed lends money to banks at an interest rate called the Discount Rate. The Federal Funds rate is the rate at which banks lend their Federal Funds--the deposits they have at the Federal Reserve--to each other. That's why it is called the Federal Funds rate. 2. The second joke comes in the second paragraph. Hansen and Singleton (1983) is 'new research'? 3. The third joke is the entire third paragraph: since the long government bond rate is made up of the sum of (a) an average of present and future short-term rates and (b) term and risk premia, if Federal Reserve policy affects short rates then--unless you want to throw every single vestige of efficient markets overboard... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**:** [First World War.com](http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/ypres1.htm): >Strategically located along the roads leading to the Channel ports in Belgian Flanders, the Belgian city of Ypres had been the scene of numerous battles since the sixteenth century. With the German failure at the Battle of the Marne in September 1914 and the subsequent Allied counter attacks, the 'Race to the Sea' began. >This so called race ended at the North Sea coast after each army attempted to outflank the other by moving north and west. This area of Flanders, described by one historian as having the dreariest landscape in Western Europe, contained the last gap through which either side could launch a decisive thrust. >By October 1914, the Allies had reached Nieuport on the North Sea coast. The Germans, as a prelude to General Erich von Falkenhayn's Flanders Offensive, captured Antwerp and forced its Belgian defenders back to Nieuport, near Ypres. >Under the command of Field Marshall Sir John French, the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) retreated to Ypres after Antwerp fell. They arrived there between 8 and 19 October to bolster the Belgian and French defence. The Allied position around Ypres took the shape of a small salient in the trench lines because it... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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This: "Note to Self: CBO and Part D" OK, self-of-six-months-ago, what about the Congressional Budget Office and Medicare Part D do you want me to note? Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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So I followed my son's friend **Jennifer Allaway:** [#Gamergate Trolls Aren't Ethics Crusaders; They're a Hate Group](http://jezebel.com/gamergate-trolls-arent-ethics-crusaders-theyre-a-hate-1644984010) into the wilds of #GamerGate; discovered among other things that in response to the misogyny there is now a [Scalzi Gender](http://whatever.scalzi.com/2014/10/14/the-scalzi-gender/); and found that [Reason continues its downward spiral](http://reason.com/archives/2014/10/12/gamergate-part-i-sex-lies-and-gender-gam) with some more "harassment has been a two-way street" opinions-of-shape-of-earth-differ journamalism. I then thought I owed it in order to round out my understanding the picture to see what the honchos of science fiction publishing house Baen Books had to say about #GamerGate... Nothing: Should I be depressed that Toni Weisskopf and others aren't willing to say that the way the #GamerGate trolls behave toward Zoe Quinn, Anita Sarkeesian, Brianna Wu, and company is shameful and contemptible? Should I be pleased that they have apparently tried to rob #GamerGate of oxygen by prohibiting any discussion of it from their internet spaces? Or should I be depressed by noting that they don't think their web membership can even note the existence of the #GamerGate trolls without something going horribly wrong? Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * **Nick Bunker:** [Weekend reading - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/weekend-reading-13/) * [Janet Yellen and the “building blocks” of opportunity - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/janet-yellen-building-blocks-opportunity/) * [Lunchtime Must-Read: Mark Thoma Sends us to Melinda Pitts: Changes in Labor Force Participation - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/lunchtime-must-read-mark-thoma-sends-us-melinda-pitts-changes-labor-force-participation/) * [Morning Must-Read: Apropos of Damon Runyon: Nothing Between Humans Is More than 3-1 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/morning-must-read-apropos-damon-runyon-nothing-humans-3-1-live-roasterie/) * [Morning Must-Read: Jennifer Allaway: #Gamergate Trolls Aren't Ethics Crusaders; They're a Hate Group - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/morning-must-read-jennifer-allaway-gamergate-trolls-arent-ethics-crusaders-theyre-hate-group/) * [Morning Must-Read: Steve Randy Waldmann: Mark Thoma Wrote the Wisest Two Paragraphs About Econometrics - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/morning-must-read-steve-randy-waldmann-mark-thoma-wrote-wisest-two-paragraphs-econometrics/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Morning of October 19, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/19/things-read-morning-october-19-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Jason Furman:** [Inclusive Growth: For Once, Some Good News](http://assets1b.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Publication/MIReview/PDF/16-29-MR64.pdf) * **Richard Pancost and Stephan Lewandowsky:** [Climate Uncertainty No Excuse for Inaction](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-uncertainty-no-excuse-for-inaction/) * **Izabella Kaminska:** [Market economics means more than just supply and demand: Tirole won a Nobel for crucial work on market dominance](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c0f1c7a-5485-11e4-bac2-00144feab7de.html#axzz3GRmJqlPj) * **Reza Moghadam et al.:** [Euro Area — “Deflation” Versus “Lowflation”](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/03/04/euro-area-deflation-versus-lowflation/) * **Jeremy Hodges:** [Poker Pro Says He Didn’t Cheat in $12.4m... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
[Report of Navy Court of Inquiry - October 19, 1944](https://www.awesomestories.com/asset/view/Report-of-Navy-Court-of-Inquiry-October-19-1944): >The following is the Opinion of the Naval Court of Inquiry which examined whether Rear Admiral Husband E. Kimmel and General Walter C. Short were in dereliction of duty on (and before) December 7, 1941. The court took testimony, examined exhibits and allowed both officers to have counsel. No dereliction of duty was found. >**Report of Navy Court of Inquiry [October 19, 1944]: OPINION:** >Based on Finding II, the Court is of the opinion that the presence of a large number of combatant vessels of the Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor on 7 December, 1941, was necessary, and that the information available to the Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Fleet, did not require any departure from his operating and maintenance schedules. >Based on Finding III, the Court is of the opinion that the Constitutional requirement that, prior to a declaration of war by the Congress, no blow may be struck until after a hostile attack has been delivered. Prevented the Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Fleet, from taking offensive action as a means of defense in the event of Japanese vessels or planes appearing [in] the Hawaiian area, and that it imposed upon him the responsibility... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Melinda Pitts: Changes in Labor Force Participation](http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/10/changes-in-labor-force-participation.html): Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Milton Friedman:** [A Tribute to George J. Stigler][ref]: "I cannot pretend to objectivity in writing about George Stigler... >....For sixty years, he was one of my closest friends. My debt to him, both personal and professional, is beyond measure. Despite deep sadness at his death, I cannot recall him without a smile rising to my lips. He was as quick of wit as of mind. His wit always had a point, and was never mean or nasty — though some of the objects of his wit no doubt felt its sting. His occasional humorous articles — such as “The History of Truth in Teaching” — have become classics and demonstrate that had he chosen to become a professional humorist rather than a professional economist, he would have achieved no less fame in the one field than he did in the other. His death has left the world a far less joyful place for Rose and me, as for so many others. [ref]: http://0055d26.netsolhost.com/friedman/pdfs/other_academia/MP.09.04.1992.pdf ( :: http://0055d26.netsolhost.com/friedman/pdfs/other_academia/MP.09.04.1992.pdf) >George was a great economist, a great teacher, a great human being with a gift for writing matched among economists in the twentieth century only by Keynes. He always pretended that he never worked... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Jennifer Allaway:** [\#Gamergate Trolls Aren't Ethics Crusaders; They're a Hate Group](http://jezebel.com/gamergate-trolls-arent-ethics-crusaders-theyre-a-hate-1644984010): "My name is Jennifer Allaway.... >...I've been working on a new study on the importance of diversity in game content to game players, and whether or not the game industry is able to predict this desire. Game developers can be hard to reach.... By September 25th, I basically had all the data I needed. And then I got this email: 'Hey diddle-doodle, Ms. Allaway! A heads-up: your project has been targeted for extensive "vote brigading" (possibly ranging into the tens of thousands of entries). Use that knowledge however you will. Cheers'.... I went into 8chan—the movement's current and primary forum for coordinating their efforts—and found a discussion on a 'secret developer survey,' referring to my questions.... In under four hours, the developer survey jumped from around 700 responses, which had been collected over the course of a month, to over 1100 responses. The responses were not... subtle.... It appeared that less than 5 percent of the new responses had actually come from developers.... Responses like this.... I set about locking down accounts, emailing professors, contacting campus safety, and calling family. It was an exhausting process, but I considered it... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Jeremy Hodges reports: **Jeremy Hodges:** [Poker Pro Says He Didn’t Cheat in $12.4m Baccarat Haul](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/poker-pro-says-he-didn-t-cheat-in-12-4-million-baccarat-haul.html): "Phil Ivey... 38, won the money playing a form of Baccarat called Punto Banco... >using a technique known as edge sorting, at Genting’s Crockfords casino in London, according to his lawyers. Genting refused to pay up, saying the practice is unfair. A casino ‘is a cat and mouse environment, it is an adversarial environment,’ Richard Spearman, Ivey’s lawyer said in court. ‘It doesn’t mean you have to be dishonest.’ Ivey, who sued Genting last year, argues that edge sorting isn’t dishonest and he should be paid the money.... Both sides agree that Ivey was in the casino in August 2012 and that he won the money.... Edge sorting is a way a card player can gain an advantage by working out the value of a card by spotting flaws or particular patterns on the back of certain cards.... It’s agreed ‘in the present case that there are legitimate strategies that may used by skilled players which have the purpose and effect of providing the player, rather than the casino, with the advantage on particular bets,’ Spearman said in court documents... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Narayana Kocherlakota:** [ Clarifying the Objectives of Monetary Policy](http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5408&&): "Thank you for that generous introduction... >...and thank you all for joining us here today. This is a special day for us at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, especially at the Helena Branch. Dave Solberg, a member of the Branch’s board of directors, will complete his service at the end of this year. I would like to extend my personal thanks to Dave for his service to the Helena Branch and, more broadly, to the Federal Reserve. The time that our directors, and members of our advisory councils, devote to their work is truly valuable. Dave and his colleagues bring important insights about the economy from people on Main Street and on farms and ranches across the region. As I have said many times, we have no end of data at the Federal Reserve, but data are backward-looking, and we need all the information we can get to make judgments about the future course of the economy. So thanks again to Dave and to his colleagues on the board, as well as anyone else in the room who has served on a Federal Reserve board or council. We appreciate your... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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In which some more of my ancestors, fighting for Colonel John Glover's Marblehead Mariners, save George Washington from being encircled and annihilated by Howe: **Wikipedia:** [Battle of Pell's Point](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Pell's_Point): >On October 18, [Howe] landed 4,000 men at Pelham, 3 miles (4.8 km) north of Throgs Neck. Inland were 750 men of a brigade under the command of Col. John Glover. Glover positioned his troops behind a series of stone walls, and attacked the British advance units. As the British overran each position, the American troops fell back and reorganized behind the next wall. After several such attacks, the British broke off and the Americans retreated. The battle delayed British movements long enough for Washington to move the main army to White Plains, avoiding being surrounded on Manhattan. After losing to the British in a battle at White Plains, and losing Fort Washington, Washington retreated across New Jersey to Pennsylvania. >By October 17, the Continental Army was on its way to White Plains, leaving behind 2,000 men to garrison Fort Washington. At dawn, the British began to land on the shore, Clinton's advance guard of 4,000 British light infantry and Hessian jägers landing first. Inland, opposing them, was a brigade of... Continue reading
Posted 5 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...