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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
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**Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Huailu Li, Kevin Lang, and Kaiwen Leong**: [Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination](http://www.voxeu.org/article/competition-alone-will-not-eliminate-discrimination) * **Tim Duy**: [The Right And Wrong Arguments For September](http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2015/08/the-right-and-wrong-arguments-for-september.html) * **Federal Reserve**: [Federal Reserve Act: Section 4](http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section4.htm) **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [Project Syndicate: A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening](http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/08/28/project-syndicate-cautionary-history-us-monetary-tightening/) * [WorldPost: China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run...](http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/08/28/worldpost-chinas-market-crash-means-chinese-supergrowth-5-years-run/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Morning of August 29, 2015](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=13108) **And Over Here:** * [Mount Moran at Dawn with Central Bankers](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/mount-moran-at-dawn-with-central-bankers.html) * [Weekend Reading: Matthew Klein: Some Fed thoughts: QE4 and All That](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/weekend-reading-matthew-klein-some-fed-thoughts-qe4-and-all-that.html) * [Wekeend Reading: An interview with Josiah Ober, author of The Rise and Fall of Classical Greece](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/wekeend-reading-an-interview-with-josiah-ober-author-of-the-rise-and-fall-of-classical-greece.html) * [Weekend Reading: Rod Hilton: Star Wars: Machete Order](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/weekend-reading-rod-hilton-star-wars-machete-order.html) * [For the Weekend...](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/for-the-weekend-2.html) * [Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: Memo to National Park Service...](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/live-from-jackson-hole-2015-weblogging-memo-to-national-park-service-i-think-you-should-add-some-signs-saying-are-y.html) * [Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: Peggy Noonan Wall Street Journal column or Onion parody?](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/live-from-jackson-hole-2015-weblogging-peggy-noonan-_wall-street-journal_-column-or-onion-parody-peggy-noonan.html) * [Project Syndicate: A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/project-syndicate-a-cautionary-history-of-us-monetary-tightening.html) * [WorldPost: China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run....](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/worldpost-chinas-market-crash-means-chinese-supergrowth-could-have-only-5-more-years-to-run.html) * [Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: I have finally figured out what I feel... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** I call it: "Mt. Moran at Dawn with Central Bankers": Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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This is Ken Rogoff's "debt supercycle" view, by and large: **Matthew Klein**: [Some Fed thoughts: QE4 and all that](http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/08/28/2138606/some-fed-thoughts-qe4-and-all-that/): For months, the mid-September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee... >was being telegraphed as the most likely start date of the ‘normalisation’ process. Or, to use another bit of central banker-ese, the day when short-term interest rates would begin ‘liftoff’ from the current range of zero to 25 basis points. There is still time before any decision is made, but the latest utterances from America’s central bankers — corroborated by interest rate futures and options — suggest that a September rate increase is becoming less likely. Bill Dudley, the boss of the New York Fed, said on Wednesday that the argument for moving in a few weeks was ‘less compelling’ than it was just ‘several weeks ago’. >At first glance, this seems strange. After all, Fed officials have constantly been telling us that the schedule of ‘normalisation’ depends on whether the hard US macro data conformed to policymakers’ forecasts — which they have! Whether it’s the latest GDP numbers, jobs, real wages, retail sales, autos, housing, or tax receipts, the US economy continues to chug along at the pace most... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Rod Hilton**: [The Star Wars Saga: Introducing Machete Order](http://www.nomachetejuggling.com/2011/11/11/the-star-wars-saga-suggested-viewing-order/): "Watch the films with them in this order: IV, V, II, III, VI... >...Episode I is gone. Episodes II and III aren't exactly Shakespeare, but stand ing next to the complete and utter train wreck that is Episode I, they sure look like it. At least, III does.... Episode I is a failure on every possible level..... Luckily, George Lucas has... ma[de] the content of Episode I completely irrelevant to the rest of the series.... Every character established in Episode I is either killed or removed before it ends (Darth Maul, Qui-Gon, Chancellor Valorum), unimportant (Nute Gunray, Watto), or es tab lished better in a later episode (Mace Windu, Darth Sidious). Does it ever matter that Palpatine had an apprentice before Count Dooku? Nope.... Does it ever matter that Obi-Wan was being trained by Qui-Gon? Nope.... Search your feelings, you know it to be true! Episode I doesn't matter at all.... >Buh-bye, Binks!... No midichlorians.... No Jake Lloyd.... No confusing Padme/Queen switcheroo.... Less confusing master/apprentice relationships.... Nothing about trade disputes.... >Booting Episode I isn't merely about pretending a crappy movie doesn't exist. Viewing Episode II immediately after V and Episode IIIimmediately... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Debra Liese**: [An interview with Josiah Ober, author of The Rise and Fall of Classical Greece](http://blog.press.princeton.edu/2015/05/13/an-interview-with-josiah-ober-author-of-the-rise-and-fall-of-classical-greece/): >The period considered classical Greece (roughly the 4th through 5th century BC) had a profound effect on Western civilization, forming the foundations of politics and philosophy, as well as artistic and scientific thought. Why did Greece experience such economic and cultural growth—and why was it limited to this 200-year period? Josiah Ober, Professor of Political Science and Classics at Stanford University and author of The Rise and Fall of Classical Greece, took the time to explain the reasons behind Greece’s flourishing, and what its economic rise and political fall can tell us about our own world. >What was the rise of classical Greece and when and why did it happen? >JO: Basically, sustained economic growth lead to the rise of Ancient Greek civilization. >At the Early Iron Age nadir, in ca. 1000 BCE, the Greek world was sparsely populated and consumption rates hovered near subsistence. Some 650 years later, in the age of Aristotle, the population of the Greek world had increased at least twenty-fold. During that same period, per capita consumption probably doubled. >That rate of growth is far short of modern rates,... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** Memo to National Park Service: I think you should add some signs saying: "Are you carrying water? How much water?" next to the "Please don't feed the animals" signs... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** Peggy Noonan _Wall Street Journal_ column or Onion parody? **Peggy Noonan:** [America Is so in Play](http://www.wsj.com/articles/america-is-so-in-play-1440715262): "Something is going on, some tectonic plates are moving in interesting ways... >...My friend Cesar works the deli counter at my neighborhood grocery store. He is Dominican, an immigrant, early 50s, and listens most mornings to a local Hispanic radio station, La Mega, on 97.9 FM. Their morning show is the popular “El Vacilón de la Mañana,” and after the first GOP debate, Cesar told me, they opened the lines to call-ins, asking listeners (mostly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Mexican) for their impressions. More than half called in to say they were for Mr. Trump. Their praise, Cesar told me a few weeks ago, dumbfounded the hosts. I later spoke to one of them, who identified himself as D.J. New Era. He backed Cesar’s story. “We were very surprised,” at the Trump support, he said. Why? “It’s a Latin-based market!” And the answer is: [Peggy Noonan _Wall Street Journal_ column!](http://www.wsj.com/articles/america-is-so-in-play-1440715262) **Doug J.**: [Anthony works in the grocery store](http://www.balloon-juice.com/2015/08/28/anthony-works-in-the-grocery-store/): "Meanwhile, back on planet earth: >>A new Gallup poll released Monday evening found that 65 percent of Hispanic voters say they... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Over at Project Syndicate**: [A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-monetary-policy-tightening-risks-by-j--bradford-delong-2015-08): BERKELEY JACKSON HOLE – The US Federal Reserve has embarked on an effort to tighten monetary policy four times in the past four decades. On every one of these occasions, the effort triggered processes that reduced employment and output far more than the Fed’s staff had anticipated. As the Fed prepares to tighten monetary policy once again, an examination of this history – and of the current state of the economy – suggests that the United States is about to enter dangerous territory. [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-monetary-policy-tightening-risks-by-j--bradford-delong-2015-08 Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Over at WorldPost:** [China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brad-delong/china-market-crash-5-years_b_8045742.html?1440772415): Ever since I became an adult in 1980, I have been a stopped clock with respect to the Chinese economy. I have said -- always -- that at most, Chinese supergrowth likely has five more years to run. Then there will come a crash.... After the crash, China will revert to the standard pattern of an emerging market economy without successful institutions that duplicate or somehow mimic those of the North Atlantic... convergence to the North Atlantic growth-path norm will be slow... and political risks... [cause] the most likely surprises. I have been wrong for 25 years straight -- and the jury is still out on the period since 2005. Thus, I'm very hesitant to count out China and its supergrowth miracle. But now 'a' crash -- even if, perhaps, not 'the' crash I was predicting -- is at hand. [**READ MOAR**] [1]: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brad-delong/china-market-crash-5-years_b_8045742.html?1440772415 Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** I have finally figured out what I feel like here at the Jackson Lake Lodge: I feel like Jacob Marley's Ghost. It was 23 years ago that Larry Summers and I came here to say, among other things, that reducing the inflation target below 4% per year was extremely risky and unwise because it greatly raised the chances of running into zero lower bound in a recession. Jeebus! We were right. By the Sacred and Holy Name of the One Who Is! We were right. And now the Federal Reserve is stuck. Outside on the patio as the first rays of the sun hit the peak of Mount Moran St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard was saying that Financial markets are wrong and the fact that the market 10-year inflation breakeven is now 1.5% is something the Federal Reserve is ignoring. Because the market does not know what it is doing. James Bullard. Is there any other circumstance under which James Bullard would say that the market does not know what it is doing, other than when the market is telling him that his monetary policy is inappropriately tight? Not a 4%/year target... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Must-Read:** I cannot help but note strong divergence between the near-consensus views of Fed Chair Janet's and Fed Vice-Chair Stan's still-academic colleagues and students that tightening now is grossly premature, financial markets' agreement with the hippies as evidenced by the ten-year breakeven, commercial-banker and wingnut demands for immediate tightening, the extraordinarily awful performance since 2007 of not all but the average regional Fed president as revealed in the transcripts, and the Federal Reserve's strong predisposition to an interest-rate liftoff soon. That divergence plus the apparent focus of what is a global hegemon on its domestic situation make me think that this is not a well-functioning institution we have here: **Gavyn Davies**: [China’s Policy Failings Challenge the Fed](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=13099): "There is something... important... doubts about the competence and credibility of Chinese economic policy... >...and the appropriateness of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary strategy.... While overall Chinese activity was not disastrous, the sectors of the economy that were most important for commodities--real estate, construction and manufacturing--were clearly weaker than the expanding services sectors. China pessimists... claimed that the “inevitable” Chinese hard landing was at hand.... Martin Wolf and David Pilling have rightly suggested in the FT that China’s economic problems are deep seated,... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** Dawn sunlight reflecting off of Mt. Moran with central bankers: I am envious: Marty Feldstein (not shown) was in the Bloomberg Interview chair the moment that the sunlight first hit Mt. Moran. And I find myself thinking: Marty warned the world about the institutional weaknesses of the eurozone and how adopting the euro was a bad idea. He was positively shrill. The world ought to have listened. It did not. Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** It's 6800 feet up here. For the first time ever, I wish I were a vampire--I could really, really use some more oxygen-carrying red blood corpuscles right now... What is the science on doping yourself with your own stored blood when you go up to high altitude, anyway? Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Director Troy Davig and President Esther George have come up with *the* right topic for their program this year: **[Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy](https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/symposiums/escp-2015):** What the best guess are as to how inflation will evolve if economic policies remain on their current track--or if policies change--is the topic that most urgently absorbs central bankers right now, and our base of knowledge is pitifully thin... **Papers and Round Tables:** * Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajsek: [Inflation Dynamics Through Firms’ Pricing Behavior](https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2015/econsymposium-gilchristzakrajsek-paper.pdf?la=en): Discussant: Pete Klenow. Gilchrist and Zakrajsek argue that financial-panic driven downturns are unusual in generating relatively little downward pressure on prices. Why? Because the sudden emergence of credit constraints in a financial panic-driven downturn shortens the horizon of firms, and makes them willing to try to generate cash flow now at the expense of their long-run customer base by overcharging their current customers. Thus the relationship between prices and output that we see in normal times and in monetary tightening-driven downturns does not hold during financial crisis-driven downturns. The argument is powerful and ingenious--but, perhaps, too ingenious. Maybe this is just my old-man-yelling-at-clouds dislike of conclusions that are emerging from DSGEs that we... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** ---- ---- * The Federal Reserve was supposed to be a people's central bank. The desire to make it a people's central bank was behind the pre-World War I democratic progressive rejection of the Aldrich plan--written by John D. Rockefeller II's father-in-law Sen. Nelson Aldrich (R-RI). Instead of being run by bankers for bankers, the Federal Reserve was to be run by wise technocrats--the Board in Washington, with presidentially-appointed members with very long terms--to be distributed around the country in 12 reserve banks only one of which would be in New York, and the 9 directors the bank presidents served would have a solid majority representing their region's public and the Board, not representing bankers. * It hasn't really worked--although at least some officials of the Federal Reserve will occasionally say that the Federal Reserve is the North Atlantic central bank that is least close to the banking sector it regulates, and might hint that that is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve has done better than other North Atlantic central banks since 2007. * Not only did Congress give the Federal Reserve a structure that is flawed, but Congress gave the Federal Reserve... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
Pet Shop Boys: Where the Streets Have No Name/I Can't Take My Eyes off You Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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We of [Whose Recovery?](http://whatrecovery.org) and all of our friends at the [Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Conference and Drinking Party](https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp) are not the only people up in Jackson Hole this week. There is the [American Principles Project](http://americanprinciplesproject.org) down-valley somewhere--a conference that seems to me to be totally composed of grifters and goldbugs, with the accent on the first. They are there, charging their attendees a healthy sum, because, they say, current Federal Reserve policies are dangerously inflationary, and so they need to "bring sanity back to U.S. monetary policy". The top five speakers for the goldbug-grifter project: George Gilder, Steve Moore, Benn Steil, Peter Schiff, and Jim DeMint. There's no need to talk about Jim DeMint, is there? Let's talk instead some more about the conference organizer, Stephen Lonegan: **Andy Kroll** (2013): [6 Crazy—and Cruel—Things Said by Cory Booker's New GOP Opponent](http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/08/steve-lonegan-cory-booker-new-jersey-senate-race): "Steve Lonegan... [from] 1996 to 2008... >...served as mayor of Bogota, New Jersey (pop. 8,241 in 2011).... He has earned more than his fair share of headlines for... >'I have a handicap, you know. I am a white guy running in the state of New Jersey.' On August 8, Lonegan's campaign tweeted: 'Just leaked -... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier**: [Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=13095) * **Cherrie Buckner**: [Young Black America Part Four: The Wrong Way to Close the Gender Wage Gap](http://www.cepr.net/publications/reports/young-black-america-part-four-the-wrong-way-to-close-the-gender-wage-gap) * **Tim Duy**: [Dudley Puts the Kibosh on September](http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2015/08/dudley-puts-the-kibosh-on-september.html) * **Andrew Haldane**: [Stuck](http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech828.pdf) * **Gillian Tett**: [The Silo Effect](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/092c52b4-46b4-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3jsfxq6KP) **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [Things to Read at Lunchtime on August 25, 2015](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=13097) **And Over Here:** * [Out on the back patio of Jackson Lake Lodge. Alas! Mount Moran and the rest of the Teton range are fogged in this dawn...](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/out-on-the-back-patio-of-jackson-lake-lodge-alas-mount-moran-and-the-rest-of-the-teton-range-are-fogged-in-this-dawn.html) * [Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier: Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/must-read-kris-james-mitchener-and-marc-d-weidenmier-was-the-classical-gold-standard-credible-on-the-periphery-evide.html) * [Miles Kimball: Larry Summers: The Fed Looks Set to Make a...](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/larry-summers-the-fed-looks-set-to-make-a.html) * [Grifters and Goldbugs and Bears, Oh My!: Peter Schiff Edition](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/grifters-and-goldbugs-and-bears-oh-my-peter-schiff-edition.html) * [Live from the Big T-- Mountains: Ezra Klein: 'As a writer, I would write stories about these complicated health-care topics...](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/live-from-the-big-t-mountains-ezra-klein-as-a-writerhttpwwwwashingtoniancomblogscapitalcommentmed.html) * [Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: Paul Krugman: The Old Man and the CPI: 'I was treated to a long ad from Ron Paul...](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/the-old-man-and-the-cpi-the-new-york-times.html) * [Benn Steil, Also Headlining... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
Out on the back patio of Jackson Lake Lodge. Alas! Mount Moran and the rest of the Teton range are fogged in this dawn... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
**Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier**: [Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=13095): "We use a standard metric from international finance... >...the currency risk premium, to assess the credibility of fixed exchange rates during the classical gold standard era. Theory suggests that a completely credible and permanent commitment to join the gold standard would have zero currency risk or no expectation of devaluation. We find that, even five years after a typical emerging-market country joined the gold standard, the currency risk premium averaged at least 220 basis points. Fixed-effects, panel-regression estimates that control for a variety of borrower-specific factors also show large and positive currency risk premia. In contrast to core gold standard countries, such as France and Germany, the persistence of large premia, long after gold standard adoption, suggest that financial markets did not view the pegs in emerging markets as credible and expected that they devaluation. > Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: Must-Read:** I think Miles Kimball is dead-on here: unless the advocates of interest-rate smoothing can come up with an argument for interest rate smoothing better than any they have so far, the right level of the Federal Reserve's short-term federal funds control rate is (if it is away from its zero lower bound) the level at which the Fed is uncertain whether its move at the next meeting will be up, down, or zero: **Miles Kimball**: [Larry Summers: The Fed Looks Set to Make a...](http://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/127443822687/larry-summers-the-fed-looks-set-to-make-a): "Let me address one myth... >...that Mike Woodford has shown that interest-rate smoothing makes sense. I would be glad to be corrected, but I think this myth arises because Mike talked about the Fed carrying about affecting... expectations of future rates. Just as backward-looking state variables have forward-looking costate variables, bond market expectations are like a forward-looking state variable for the Fed; those bond market expectations have a corresponding backward-looking costate variable.... Such backward-looking costate variables giving guidance about doing the right thing in relation to bond-market expectations contribute additional drift terms to the optimal policy rate, but it still seems to me that over a six-week span of... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** We of [What Recovery?](http://whatrecovery.org) and all of our friends at the [Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Conference and Drinking Party](https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp) are not the only people up in Jackson Hole this week. There is the [American Principles Project](http://americanprinciplesproject.org) down-valley somewhere--a conference of grifters and goldbugs, charging their attendees a healthy sum, because, they say, current Federal Reserve policies are dangerously inflationary, and so they need to "bring sanity back to U.S. monetary policy". Their top five headlined speakers: George Gilder--Chairman, George Gilder Fund and former Reagan advisor. Steve Moore--Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Heritage Foundation. Benn Steil, PhD--Senior Fellow & Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations. Peter Schiff--Financial Analyst. Jim DeMint--President, Heritage Foundation. I have already dealt with George Gilder, Stephen Moore, and the conference organizer Steven Lonegan. Now we come to headliner number 3, Benn Steil. Unlike Lonegan, Gilder, and Moore, Benn Steil is not a liar: he does not knowingly state things that he knows to be false. He is, however, what Bugs Bunny would call: "a maroon". Here are five examples: **[(1) Benn Steil does not understand the constraints facing countries that do not issue the principal reserve currency](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/05/department-of-huh-hopelessly-muddled-monetary-economics-edition.html)**:... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** We of [What Recovery?](http://whatrecovery.org) and all of our friends at the [Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Conference and Drinking Party](https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp) are not the only people up in Jackson Hole this week. There is the [American Principles Project](http://americanprinciplesproject.org) down-valley somewhere--a conference of grifters and goldbugs, charging their attendees a healthy sum, because, they say, current Federal Reserve policies are dangerously inflationary, and so they need to "bring sanity back to U.S. monetary policy". Their top five headlined speakers: George Gilder--Chairman, George Gilder Fund and former Reagan advisor. Steve Moore--Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Heritage Foundation. Benn Steil, PhD--Senior Fellow & Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations. Peter Schiff--Financial Analyst. Jim DeMint--President, Heritage Foundation. I have already dealt with conference organizer Steven Lonegan and the top three headliners: George Gilder, Stephen Moore, and Benn Steil. Now it is on to Peter Schiff: Let me outsource this to Nate Heckmann: **Nate Heckmann** (2013): [Peter Schiff is Wrong About Everything](http://www.etvita.com/2013/04/peter-schiff-is-wrong-about-everything.html): "A libertarian friend of mine... sent me a video... [of] Peter Schiff... >...[who] responds to his critics who attacked him for a prediction he made at the end of 2009 about hyperinflation: >>You know, look,... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
**Live from the Big T-- Mountains:** **Ezra Klein**: ["As a writer[,]](http://www.washingtonian.com/blogs/capitalcomment/media/ezra-klein-finds-conversations-about-the-future-of-journalism-tiresome.php) I would write stories about these complicated health-care topics... >...that just assumed the reader knew everything about the single-payer option. It’s a pretty small group of people.... You have to be kind of a weirdo.... The people who come to Vox every day may not be in need of a card stack on this or that issue. But because they’re optimized for search, they go far beyond the people who would read an article about Bill Kristol.... I want people to think of Vox as the place they go when they need to understand the news.... I believe that’s very empowering.... The worst thing we do as journalists, and one of the worst things Washington does in particular, is make people feel the news is too complicated for them.... We do it almost as a gag. We’ll talk about how incredibly dull it is to talk about Obamacare. But it’s literally a life-and-death issue for people. That’s an incredibly devastating thing to do to a democracy.... So if we can give people a place they can catch up, that’s a huge win. And the more often we do that... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
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**Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging:** Paul Krugman meditates on why the goldbug-grifters currently running and speaking at the APP Monetary Policy event down-valley here in Jackson Hole make such a good living--why they find so many marks, and why it does not matter that the predictions of the goldbug-grifter-con men have proven so false for so long: **Paul Krugman**: [The Old Man and the CPI](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/25/the-old-man-and-the-cpi/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body): "I was treated to a long ad from Ron Paul... >...who wants you to buy his video explaining the coming crisis brought on by loose money. And I found myself thinking about the remarkable fact that there really are people who will buy that video.... Ron Paul has been making the same prediction year after year... at least since 1981!... has been wrong year after year. It’s hard to think of a doctrine that has been as thoroughly refuted by events as goldbug economics. For a while gold prices did go up, although not for the reasons the goldbugs thought, but now even that has gone into reverse. So why would anyone pay money?... >It’s... affinity fraud.... People who pay Ron Paul... have made some money... believe... it reflects their own virtue... hear... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality