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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Paul Krugman and Jonathan Chait Are Spending This Morning Worrying About Whether a Technocratic Dialogue Is Even Possible Today: Friday Focus: April 18, 2014 * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Evening Must-Watch: Mark Thoma and Steve Williamson: The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Decisions since the Ending of the Great Recession in 2009 * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Afternoon Must Read: Lars E.O. Svensson: Ingen Kunde ha Förutsagt...: Swedish Deflation Edition * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Evening Must-Read: Jonathan Chait: Obama Declares Obamacare Victory **Plus:** * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Things to Read on the Evening of April 19, 2014 **And:** * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: For the Weekend...: What Wondrous Love * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Liveblogging World War II: April 19, 2014: American Refit of French Battleship Richelieu * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Weekend Reading: Anti-Gay and Anti-Black: John Holbo on Conrad Friedersdorf and Sam Ervin, and Jelani Cobb on the Failure of Desegregation * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Weekend Reading: Annalee Newitz: The io9 Manifesto: Science Is Political: A Better Tomorrow... Continue reading
Karabarbounis and Neimann, The Global Decline of the Labor Share THE GLOBAL DECLINE OF THE LABOR SHARE* Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman The stability of the labor share of income is a key foundation in macroeco- nomic models. We document, however, that the global labor share has signifi- cantly declined... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at WCEG-Scratch
* **John Holbo:** Conor Friedersdorf and Sam Ervin * **Jelani Cobb:** The Failure of Desegregation * with bonus **E.J. Graff** ---- **John Holbo:** Let’s bury--I say, let’s bury the hatchet, but not in anyone’s head, boy: "My Chait thread was a moderate disaster.... >Let’s cut all that loose and try again.... Conor Friedersdorf’s argument that gay marriage opponents shouldn’t be likened to racist bigots goes something like this. >P1: Racism is pretty simple: “A belief in the superiority of one race and the inferiority of another.” >P2: Opposition to same-sex marriage is complex: “One thing I’ve noticed in this debate is how unfamiliar proponents of stigma are with thoughtful orthodox Christians — that is to say, they haven’t interacted with them personally, critiqued the best version of their arguments, or even been exposed to the most sophisticated version of their reasoning, which I find to be obviously earnest, if ultimately unpersuasive.” >C: Comparing same-sex marriage opponents to racist bigots falsifies by over-simplification >Friedersdorf is braced for resistance to P2. But P2 is ok and the problem is P1. I hope it’s obvious to you, when it’s put so simply. Racism is not… simple. (How could it be?) Let me interrupt... Continue reading
**Annalee Newitz:** The io9 Manifesto: Science Is Political: "io9 started out in 2007 as the germ of an idea for a site about futurism... >...with a name that was a joke about brain implants. Six and a half years later, we've grown in size--but we've also grown up. Our 2008 manifesto still holds true, but in 2014 we've got some amendments. Here they are. >Last month, for the first time, io9 had over 10 million unique readers in the United States alone; globally, we had 15 million. We had a staff of three when we launched in 2008; now we've got 14. Our mission has grown too. >**Speculative Pop Culture:** When I first conceived io9 back in 2007, I had one goal: to give readers a vision of the future that was based in scientific reality as well as science fiction. To do it, I needed to build a publication that would bring science journalism together with cultural criticism and futurist ideas. No one strand of thought would be dominant. To understand where we're headed as a civilization, we cannot privilege science over culture, nor can we afford to ignore even the most speculative predictions. >Often, the weirdest notions about... Continue reading
"So we are settled," said the convenor of the meeting. "Our story is: the truth!" "At least it is easy to remember," someone muttered under their breath as we gathered up our papers. It seems to me that the Obama administration can go with any of three different truths as it tries to explain its banking programs to the world: 1. **The banks have us by the plums:** Keeping the economy near full employment requires pushing asset prices back up to values at which businesses selling stocks and bonds can obtain financing that makes it profitable for them to expand. But pushing asset prices back up enriches the bankers whose overleverage got us into this mess, and prevents them from suffering their just punishment. There is no way out of this dilemma, but the Obama administration is trying as hard as it can given the limited authority congress has granted it to maximize the gain to employment and minimize the support provided to financial princes. 2. **The government has a chance to make a fortune:** Just as in 1999 and 2005 financial markets were ruled by irrational exuberance, now they are ruled by irrational pessimism. Because of this irrational pessimism,... Continue reading
Brad DeLong : Department of "Huh?!": Larry Lessig Suffers Badly from Stockholm Syndrome in His Devotion to Nino Scalia Department: The surprising thing is that Lessig appears to have forgotten how Scalia prostituted his high office--and demonstrated that if you are not a Legal Realist you are a dupe--in Bush v. Gore. That train has sailed, that bus has rolled, that ship has hit the highway: If there truly is a principled distinction to be made here--if Scalia and company are striking down gun regulation and violence against women statutes while upholding copyright and medical-marijuana restrictions not because they are political hacks but because they are judges--nobody, to my knowledge, has ever been able to explain how. If Scalia does not vote to strike down Obamacare, it will be because of political pressure, not because of judicial doctrine or judicial restraint. Larry Lessig: >**Why Scalia Could Uphold Obamacare:** He may be a staunch conservative, but the justice understands the commerce clause better than anyone else on the Supreme Court.... Most non-lawyers have been bemused by the confidence that constitutional lawyers once had about the Supreme Court's likely decision in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka, the Obamacare) case.... Continue reading
**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Lunchtime Piketty: Thomas Piketty: Extreme Inequality Is Useless for Growth * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Afternoon Must-Read: German Lopez: White House: 8 Million People Signed Up for Obamacare * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | I Saw a Monetarist Drinking a Pina Colada...: Thursday Focus: April 17, 2014 * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Afternoon Must-Read: John Aziz: The World's Dumbest Idea: Taxing Solar Energy * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Afternoon-Must Read: Dean Baker: Will the Wall Street Journal Give Ed Lazear Space to Correct His Piece About Falling Work Hours? * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | The Daily Piketty...: "..." **Plus:** * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Things to Read at Lunchtime on April 18, 2014 **And:** This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: For the Weekend... * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Liveblogging World War II: April 18, 1944 * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Hoisted from the Archives from 11 Years Ago: Notes: Vernor Vinge's A Deepness in the Sky * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Thursday Idiocy Three-for * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...:... Continue reading
1. What wondrous love is this, O my soul! O my soul! What wondrous love is this! O my soul! What wondrous love is this! That caused the Lord of bliss! To send this precious peace, To my soul, to my soul! To send this precious peace To my soul! 2. When I was sinking down, Sinking down, sinking down; When I was sinking down Sinking down. When I was sinking down, Beneath God's righteous frown, Christ laid aside his crown For my soul, for my soul! Christ laid aside his crown For my soul! 3. Ye winged seraphs fly, Bear the news, bear the news! Ye winged seraphs fly Bear the news!-- Ye winged seraphs fly, like comets through the sky, fill vast eternity! With the news, with the news! Fill vast eternity With the news! 4. Ye friends of Zion's king, join his praise, join his praise; Ye friends of Zion's king, join his praise; Ye friends of Zion's king, with hearts and voices sing, and strike each tuneful string in his praise, in his praise! and strike each tuneful string in his praise! 5. To God and to the Lamb, I will sing, I will sing; To... Continue reading
From World War II Today: H.F. Norman at Kohima: >At 09.30 hours Corporal Judges and his section consisting of Privates Johnson,Thrussel and myself, as well as Corporal Veal’s section, went onto the road to help evacuate the wounded Indians, BORs, walking and stretcher cases. It was my job to look at the stretcher cases. If they were dead I had to send the Indian stretcher bearers round the back of the feature where they put the bodies in a heap to be buried later.… >At 11.00 hours Japanese shells started exploding among us and it was terrible to hear the screams of the injured. Corporal Judges and a large number of the walking wounded were killed. Captain Topham [who, as previously recorded, had been wounded on Garrison Hill and evacuated to the ADS on 10 April] was seriously injured [again, and later died in hospital]. >I saw trunks without legs and arms and bodies with heads blown off. I ran off the road up onto the hill and the shells seemed to be following me. Soon four tanks appeared on the road, fired at the Japanese gun that was shelling us and destroyed it. >We ventured onto the road again... Continue reading
* Charles Koch's Character: The Assassinating! * John Kasich Pulls an Old Trick from Josef Stalin! * Thursday Idiocy: Lambert Strether of Naked Capitalism: Leftier-than-Thou That Goes Around the World and Comes Back on the Other Side... Continue reading
Charles Koch complains about the character assassination he experiences at the hands of Barack Obama, who he says is acting like the despots of the twentieth century like Hitler and Stalin. But why is he silent about the real character assassination he suffers? For that we have to resort to the archives, and the bemused Justin Fox: **Justin Fox** (2009): on the crazed right-wingers who lead the character assassination of Charles Koch: "Update: Lew Rockwell weighs in... >on my taxonomy of Austrians: >>The author hilariously sees Austrian economics as divided into two parts: the nice one, entirely in the super-wealthy Koch Brothers ambit, and the mean one, in mine! A little background: when I started the Mises Institute (an organization unmentioned by Time) 26 years ago, the head of the Koch Family Foundation angrily pledged to destroy me if I went ahead. "We have worked too hard to rid Austrian economics of Mises," he said. Hayek, he claimed, was their man, though, of course, he was far better than that, and a good supporter of the Institute. But the real problem turned out to be Murray Rothbard. It was the greatest of the Misesians and the founder of modern libertarianism... Continue reading
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David M. Glantz, [*Endgame at Stalingrad*](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0700619542/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0700619542&linkCode=as2&tag=brde-20) Continue reading
Finish *Essentials*, chapter 14 "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply", 15 "Fiscal Policy”. Start chapters 16 and 17: “Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve” and “Monetary Policy” M Apr. 14: The Lesser Depression: * Fiscal Austerity/Monetary Orthodoxy/Financial Paralysis/Employment Hysteresis/The Euro/Doing Problems with AD-AS, etc… W Apr 16: The Lesser Depression/The Government Budget * [Administrivia](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/04/econ-2-spring-2014-uc-berkeley-administrivia-for-april-16-2014.html) * [Business Cycle Recap](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/04/principles-of-economics-macroeconomics-business-cycle-recap.html) * What Was I Thinking as 2008 Turned into 2009? * Problem Set 5 due… * [Problem Set 5 Answers](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/04/econ-2-spring-2014-uc-berkeley-problem-set-5-answers.html) * [The Budget and Macro Policy](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/04/principles-of-economics-macroeconomics-the-government-budget.html) Further Reading: * Aviva Aron-Dine et al.: The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Three Decades Later/CBO: Economic and Budget Outlook 2014/J. Bradford DeLong: The Budget and Macro Policy: A Primer Final Exam: Friday May 16, 8-11 AM, Hearst Gymnasium ---- 20140416 Administrivia 2.pdf | 20140416 Administrivia 2.ppt | 20140416 Administrivia 2.key Continue reading
**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Things to Read on the Afternoon of April 16, 2014 * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Afternoon Must-Read: Tyler Cowen (2008): Keynes’s General Theory, Chapter Four, *The Choice of Units* * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | What Was I Thinking as 2008 Turned into 2009?: Wednesday Focus: April 16, 2014 * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Insights on Changes in Lifetime Earnings Inequality and Educational Attainment * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Afternoon Must-Read: Martin Wolf: Review of ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’, by Thomas Piketty * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Brad DeLong on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Bill Janeway: Wednesday 4:15 AM PDT * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Lunchtime Must-Read: Ben Casselman: Losing Benefits Isn’t Prodding Unemployed Back to Work * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Lunchtime Must-Watch: Thomas Piketty: Capital in the Twenty-First Century * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Morning Must-Read: Jared Bernstein: Summers on Infrastructure Needs **Plus:** * Washington Equitable Center for Growth | Things to Read on the Afternoon of April 16, 2014 **And:** * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...:... Continue reading
20140416 Budgeting and Macro Policy.pdf | 20140416 Budgeting and Macro Policy.ppt | 20140416 Budgeting and Macro Policy.key Continue reading
20140416 Business Cycle Summary.pdf | 20140416 Business Cycle Summary.ppt | 20140416 Business Cycle Summary.key Continue reading
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[Over at the Washignton Center for Equitable Growth:](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/04/16/thinking-2008-turned-2009-wednesday-focus-april-16-2014/) The slides from the talks I was giving as 2008 turned into 2009. The huge hole in them is the lack on my part of any consideration of the possibility that we might not do what was necessary--that we might fail to use fiscal and banking policy on a large-enough scale to rebalance aggregate demand at full employment in a short-run of two to three years... **Sigh...** I simply assumed that the political and economic logic would work together: the political logic was that *all* incumbents of whatever party were at grave risk in the next election if unemployment was still high in 2010 and even more so in 2012, and that the economic logic behind using expansionary fiscal policy to get spending up to potential output was crystal-clear. I thought it obvious: 1. that inflation was not a threat unless and until unemployment reproached its natural rate, 2. that all economists recognized that even in a near-Ricardian world the multiplier on government purchases was near one in the absence of monetary-policy offset, 3. that there would be no monetary-policy offset for a few years, 4. that even deficit hawks would recognize... Continue reading
And: **Martin Longman:** Lost in Their Truther Jungle: "After reading about Josh Marshall’s journey into the Truther’s Jungle... >I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to see ObamaCare as analagous to “skewed” polls and the collective right as analogous to Karl Rove on Election Night in November 2012. What seems to be going on is something more than just epistemic closure. An entire political party (excepting their few actual health care experts) is convinced that they’re winning a political argument based on facts that are completely absent. Perhaps they can still point to polls that say that the law is unpopular, and they have some talking points about the bungled roll-out and canceled plans that people were promised they could keep. But, other than that thin gruel, the totality of everything else they think about the Affordable Care Act is just as delusional as Dick Morris’s polling analysis. >What’s interesting is that the Republicans’ are so dependent on ObamaCare being unpopular that they have to try to convince people it is failing even though it certainly is not. It’s not enough to point at polls about the law because those polls will change over time. They have to try to keep... Continue reading
**Hoisted from the Archives from 11 Years Ago:** Notes: A Deepness in the Sky: [Spoilers]. In Vernor Vinge (1999), A Deepness in the Sky (New York: Tor: 0812536355). On pp. 699-700, a brief paragraph completely reverses your understanding of the progress of the book's main plot: >Sherkaner Underhill didn't seem to notice. He moved his head back and forth under the [game] helmet's light show. 'There has to be reconnect. There has to be.' His hands twitched at the game controls. Seconds passed. 'It's all messed up now,' he sobbed." When you finish that paragraph, your picture of what is going on in the story is turned upside down. This time through the book, I looked for earlier clues that Vernor Vinge had dropped to what the real situation was. I found a great number of them, and felt like somewhat of an idiot for failing to pick up on what they might have told me had I paid more attention and thought harder: **UPDATE 2014:** And Art Brown ["AB"] emails in with some more: * p. 250 [AB]: “You remember the aurora we saw in the Dark? I have a fellow here [Jaybert] who thinks that maybe it was... Continue reading
World War II Today: ‘Black Sunday’ as tropical storm hits US 5th Air Force: >The 5th Air Force were engaged in missions against the Japanese in New Guinea and New Britain.... There was a warning that there was a weather front moving in during the mission – but the orders were to go ahead anyway. Probably no one could have anticipated just how severe that tropical storm could possibly be. In the end it proved to be the cause of the worst operational loss suffered by the 5th Air Force in a single day, including combat losses. It is believed to be the biggest single weather-related loss in aviation history. 1st Lt. Calvin Wire was flying a P-38, escorting the bombers. It was only on the return trip they experienced problems: >>We flew at about 12,000 to 13,000 feet altitude, between a solid overcast and lower broken clouds. We had no problems until we were south of Wewak, approaching the edge of the Owen Stanley Mountain Range. At this time, we were looking into a solid wall of clouds from the ground to as high as we could see. I had flown a number of missions in this general area... Continue reading
**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | No. The Cato Institute's Michael Cannon Simply Has Not Done His Homework on How ObamaCare Works. Why Do You Ask? * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Morning Must-Read: Daniel Kuehn: Strong and Weak Forms of Gender Pay Gap Skepticism * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Morning Must-Read: Ezra Klein: The Right Can’t Admit that Obamacare Is Working * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Thomas Piketty: Wealth, Income and Inequality: Tuesday Focus: April 15, 2014 * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Morning Must-Read: Felix Salmon: Yes, the SEC Was Colluding with Banks on CDO Prosecutions * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Morning Must-Read: Austin Frakt: What Happened to Offsetting Coverage Expansion Costs? **Plus:** * Washington Center for Equitable Growth | Things to Read on the Morning of April 15, 2014 **And:** This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Over at the WCEG/EPI: Thomas Piketty: Wealth, Income and Inequality: Tuesday Focus: April 15, 2014 * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: The Grifters Grift Themselves: Live from La Farine : April 15, 2014 * This Is Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...: Liveblogging World War II: April 15,... Continue reading
**Digby:** Wingnut welfare queens rebel against the usurpers: "I must admit that I find this to be hilarious: >>Republican leaders are stepping up their campaign to discredit tea party activists who are challenging them on Capitol Hill and on the campaign trail, accusing conservatives of lining their own pockets at the expense of the GOP. >>A recent radio ad for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. — who is under attack from the right in his own primary — blasts the Senate Conservatives Fund for spending its money “on a luxury townhouse with a wine cellar and hot tub in Washington, D.C.” House Republicans joke privately about the “conservative-industrial complex.” Even Ann Coulter has warned of “con men and scamsters” infiltrating the tea party movement. >>Such claims hold more water for some groups than others in a movement with no clear leader. The tea party, loosely defined, is scattered among more than a dozen multimillion-dollar organizations, from the Club for Growth to FreedomWorks, to the Tea Party Express and the conservative startup Madison Fund, all with different bottom lines and spending patterns. >>Some of the groups that have come in for the most criticism, such as the Senate Conservatives Fund... Continue reading