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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
The Serbian Response to the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum: >The Royal Government has received the communication of the Imperial and Royal Government of the 23rd inst. and is convinced that its reply will dissipate any misunderstanding which threatens to destroy the friendly and neighbourly relations between the Austrian monarchy and the kingdom of Serbia. >The Royal Government is conscious that nowhere there have been renewed protests against the great neighbourly monarchy like those which at one time were expressed in the Skuptschina, as well as in the declaration and actions of the responsible representatives of the state at that time, and which were terminated by the Serbian declaration of March 31st, 1909; furthermore that since that time neither the different corporations of the kingdom, nor the officials have made an attempt to alter the political and judicial condition created in Bosnia and the Heregovina. The Royal Government states that the I. and R. [Imperial and Royal] Government has made no protestation in this sense excepting in the case of a textbook, in regard to which the I. and R. Government has received an entirely satisfactory explanation. Serbia has given during the time of the Balkan crisis in numerous cases evidence of her... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * **Nick Bunker:** The very real success of the Earned Income Tax Credit | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * **Casey Schoeneberger:** Washington Center for Equitable Growth Announces Inaugural Class of Grantees | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Lunchtime Must-Read: Ezra Klein: Paul Ryan's Poverty Plan | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Morning Must-Read: Brian Buetler: The Adler-Cannon Halbig v. Burwell Argument Is a Fraud—Just Ask Scott Brown | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Morning Must-Read: Guido Matias Cortes et al.: The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Morning Must-Read: James Pethokoukis: The Weird Obsession That's Ruining the GOP | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Nighttime Must-Read: Eric Chemi and Ariana Giorgi: For CEOs, Correlation Between Pay and Stock Performance Is Pretty Random | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Additional Dimensions of Inequality: Wednesday Focus for July 23, 2014 | Washington Center for Equitable Growth **Plus:** * Things to Read at Night on July 24, 2014 | Washington Center for Equitable Growth **Should-Reads:** 2. **Aida Caldera Sánchez et al.:** Improving Well-Being in the United States: "Life is quite good... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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A correspondent writes, apropos of : >Nate Silver's extraordinary and unique excellence is to take a look at a complicated but relatively unsophisticated spreadsheet model of a situation and then, every day, telling an excellent narrative story about a piece of the model. That is the way that could be a huge success. But he seems to be following a different strategy. The stories are more: >>Here is some data, here is how we built it, here is the chart, here is an interesting fact about the chart... >That is unlikely to get Nate to where he wants to be, and should be... I think this is insightful. If I were Nate Silver, therefore, I would focus on building a relatively small number of quantitative models of complicated situations, and then turn my energy to successfully telling a series of narrative stories about each of them... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Richard Atkinson:** *The Guns at Last Light:* >Operation COBRA, that biggest thing, was Bradley’s plan, although not his plan alone. Montgomery for one had encouraged a sledgehammer blow on a narrower front than the Americans commonly preferred; this was sound advice, deftly delivered. “Take all the time you need, Brad,” the British commander had urged, pressing two slender fingers together against a map. “If I were you, I think I should concentrate my forces a little more.” Joe Collins, whose VII Corps would serve as the point of the spear, had chosen the precise spot to attack: a bocage copse just west of St.-Lô, on the old Roman road to Périers. Fifteen U.S. divisions—six in Collins’s corps alone—would blow through the battlefront to eventually reach Avranches, thirty miles south, opening the route to Brittany and the vital Breton ports. “Pursue every advantage,” Eisenhower had urged, “with an ardor verging on recklessness.” >That advantage lay mainly in airpower, particularly since artillery ammunition continued in short supply. A single heavy bomber carried the explosive punch of more than one hundred howitzers firing simultaneously, and Bradley wanted fifteen hundred heavies dropping sixty thousand 100-pound bombs within an hour on a rectangular swatch five... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Scott Lemieux:** "And, In Conclusion, KU's Teams Will Now Be Known As the Kansas Reagans": "Shorter Sam Brownback: >>My crazy Democratic opponent thinks that raising taxes is a way to solve the disastrous fiscal meltdown caused by the tax cuts I favored. But everyone knows this solution is insufficiently Reagan because Reagan, and in addition Reagan. >Note: this “Reagan” bears no resemblance to the actual Reagan... **David Weigel:** Gov. Sam Brownback will keep floundering in Kansas because Reagan: "Manu Raju's report from Kansas is worth a read.... >...Gov. Sam Brownback, elected in the 2010 wave, was bolstered in 2012 when conservatives primaried the moderate Republicans who used to run the state. He pushed through deep tax cuts, nixing business taxes and phasing the top income tax rate from 6.45 percent to 3.9 percent, to prove that the supply-side gospel was due for a second great awakening. The subsequent economic slump in the state is probably the best-covered in the country. 'The immediate effect has been to blow a hole in the state’s finances without noticeable economic growth', reported Peter Coy in Businessweek. 'What's wrong with Kansas' tax reform?' asked Governing magazine. In the hearth of the Koch family, it's impossible... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth:**](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/07/23/additional-dimensions-inequality/) **Lawrence Summers:** Advantages the Rich Have That Money Cannot Buy: "The primary reason for concern about inequality is that lower- and middle-income workers have too little... >...not that the rich have too much... the criterion should be... [the] impact... on the middle class and the poor.... Important aspects of inequality are unlikely to be transformed just by limited income redistribution. Consider... health and... opportunity for children. Barry Bosworth and his colleagues... [the] cohort[s]... born in 1920 and... 1940.... The richest men gained roughly six years in life expectancy... the lowest... two years... lifestyle and variations in diet and stress [rather] than the ability to afford medical care.... [**READ MOAR**](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/07/23/additional-dimensions-inequality/) >Over the past two generations... the college enrollment rate for children from the lowest quarter... has increased from 6% to 8%, the... highest quarter... from 40% to 73%.... The average affluent child now receives 6,000 hours of extracurricular education... read to, taken to a museum, coached in a sport... other... stimulus... more than the average poor child.... It would be a tragedy if this new focus on inequality and on great fortunes diverted attention from the most fundamental tasks... supporting the health and education of all its... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * **Nick Bunker:** Saving our way to less wealth inequality? | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Evening Must-Read: Mike Konczal: Dodd-Frank Reforms Are Finally Paying Off | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Evening Must-Read: James Hamilton: The Changing Face of World Oil Markets | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Does Ms Market Reject the National Income Identities?: Afternoon Comment | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Afternoon Must-Read: Sarah Kliff: Halbig Says Congress Meant to Limit subsidies. Congress Disagrees | Washington Center for Equitable Growth **Plus:** * Things to Read on the Evening of July 23, 2014 | Washington Center for Equitable Growth **Should-Reads:** 1. **Tim Jost:**Will Was the ACA Dicision Based on a Mistake?: "In a recent blog post, Cato scholar Michael Cannon admitted that he and his colleague, Case Western University professor Jonathan Adler, had made a mistake in an amicus brief they submitted to the courts in the Halbig and King cases.... This mistake... goes to the central argument that he and Jonathan have relied on.... Cannon’s error is one of a flood of misstatements that the opponents of the ACA have propagated, from 'death panels' at the outset... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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NIMBYism taken to extremes with astroturf "neighborhood associations": **April Gilbert:** Berkeley restaurant has been approved: Let’s let it open: "I am a homeowner on Russell Street just below College... >and thus an Elmwood resident. A year ago, I heard that the owners of Comal on Shattuck Avenue were proposing a restaurant for the old Wright’s Garage space on Ashby and I was thrilled. It sounded like just the ticket to round out the dining options in our little neighborhood. Finally, we would have an upscale spot with a nice atmosphere and a small bar space--just what I felt had been missing. Then, I heard there was opposition from a group called the “Elmwood Neighborhood Association”(ENA)--strange given that I’d never heard of this organization despite living smack in the middle of Elmwood for eight years.... In all my years in Berkeley, I have never encountered this group. I have not gotten an email, a phone call, or a flyer in my mailbox. ENA is positioning itself as the voice of our neighborhood, which it is not. In contrast, I am quite familiar with CENA, the Claremont-Elmwood Neighborhood Association. CENA has not taken a stand on the proposed new restaurant on Ashby,... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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She writes: **Tanvi Misra:** How Turbans Helped Some Blacks Go Incognito In The Jim Crow Era: "There's a weekly trial on the Internet... >...about who may be stealing culture from whom. Earlier this week, the defendants were Iggy Azalea and white gay men. A while back, it was Macklemore and the Harlem Shakers... But after diligent searching for the website at which the records of these weekly trials are held, I am forced to conclude that she was just using a *metaphor*. There are not any real such trials--and that is a bitter disappointment to me... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
The Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum to Serbia: >Vienna, July 22, 1914 >Your Excellency will present the following note to the Royal Government on the afternoon of Thursday, July 23: >On the 31st of March, 1909, the Royal Serbian Minister at the Court of Vienna made, in the name of his Government, the following declaration to the Imperial and Royal Government: >>Serbia recognizes that her rights were not affected by the state of affairs created in Bosnia, and states that she will accordingly accommodate herself to the decisions to be reached by the Powers in connection with Article 25 of the Treaty of Berlin. Serbia, in accepting the advice of the Great Powers, binds herself to desist from the attitude of protest and opposition which she has assumed with regard to the annexation since October last, and she furthermore binds herself to alter the tendency of her present policy toward Austria-Hungary, and to live on the footing of friendly and neighborly relations with the latter in the future. >Now the history of the past few years, and particularly the painful events of the 28th of June, have proved the existence of a subversive movement in Serbia, whose object it is to separate certain... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * Afternoon Must-Read: Bob Laszewski: Halbig Decision Puts Obamacare Back on the Menu | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * The 4th Circuit Bigfoots the Republican DC Panel's Attempt to Win the Day with Its Anti-ObamaCare Decision... | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Investment in Equipment (and Software): What Are Neil Irwin and Tyler Cowen Thinking? Tuesday Focus: July 22, 2014 | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Morning Really Must-Read: Nicholas Bagley: ObamaCare and Halbig: What Does This Morning's Decision Mean? | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Morning Must-Read: Robert Waldmann: Anchored Perceived Inflation, or How Fox News Helped Obama | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * Morning Must-Read: Scott Lemieux: The Teleological Fallacy | Washington Center for Equitable Growth * **Nick Bunker:** The curious incidence of the corporate income tax | Washington Center for Equitable Growth **Plus:** * Things to Read on the Afternoon of July 22, 2014 | Washington Center for Equitable Growth *On Twitter:* * **@shaneferro:** Today is full of much-needed explainer journalism takedowns. * .@shaneferro I need an explainer to explain the various explainer journalism takedowns. Can U provide 1? * **@shaneferro:** @delong When you try to provide... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Sarah Kliff:** Separate circuit court rules in favor of Obamacare subsidies: "The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals... >ruled Tuesday afternoon that Obamacare subsidies could be offered through federally-run insurance marketplaces. >>It is... clear that widely available tax credits are essential to fulfilling the Act’s primary goals and that Congress was aware of their importance when drafting the bill," the Fourth Circuit Court ruled. >We'll have more coverage soon...." Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog/) The estimable Neil Irwin and Tyler Cowen get, I think, things wrong here. First, Tyler, commenting on Neil: **Tyler Cowen:** Facts about non-residential investment: "One simple hypothesis is that it’s not worth spending more on American workers at current wage levels. As workers, while Americans are quite good, they are just not that much better than a variety of high-IQ individuals in cheaper countries, many of whom now have acceptable infrastructure to work with. [**READ MOAR**](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog/) Next, Neil: **Neil Irwin** @ The Upshot: "Five years into the economic recovery... >...businesses still aren’t plowing much money into big-ticket investments for the future. Nonresidential fixed investment... still hasn’t bounced back to its pre-crisis share of the economy, let alone made up for lost ground from the record lows of 2009.... If firms increased their spending enough to close that gap, it would mean an extra $220 billion in annual economic activity and perhaps a couple of million more jobs. But there may be even more important and lasting consequences for this lack of spending by businesses. Capital spending improves worker productivity. And worker productivity improves living standards. Less capital spending by businesses means less investment in the kinds... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth:**](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/07/22/morning-really-must-read-nicholas-bagley-obamacare-halbig-mornings-decision-mean/) **Nicholas Bagley:** ObamaCare and Halbig: What Does This Morning's Decision Mean?: "In a major setback for the Affordable Care Act... >...the D.C. Circuit just released a fractured opinion invalidating the IRS’s rule extending tax credits to federally facilitated exchanges.... About two-thirds of the states... declined to establish exchanges. In those states, the federal government stepped in and established the exchanges on the states’ behalf. In today’s opinion, the D.C. Circuit held that a federally facilitated exchange isn’t “established by the State under 1311.” As a result, the IRS can’t offer tax credits to those who purchase plans on such exchanges... the average estimated tax credit in 2014 is $4,700.... [**READ MOAR**](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/07/22/morning-really-must-read-nicholas-bagley-obamacare-halbig-mornings-decision-mean/) >In a lengthy and passionate dissent, Judge Edwards notes his disagreement at every turn with the government: >>The majority opinion ignores the obvious ambiguity in the statute and claims to rest on plain meaning where there is none to be found. In so doing, the majority misapplies the applicable standard of review, refuses to give deference to the IRS’s and HHS’s permissible constructions of the ACA, and issues a judgment that portends disastrous consequences. I therefore dissent. >What happens now?... The government will probably ask... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Adrian Florido:** California's uninsured cut in half under Obamacare, survey finds | 89.3 KPCC: >The percentage of uninsured Californians has been cut in half since the federal health law began expanding coverage nine months ago, according to a new national survey. In September of 2013, 22 percent of California adults were uninsured. By last month, that number had fallen to just 11 percent, the biggest drop among the nation’s six largest states. The survey of more than 4,400 people by the Commonwealth Fund, a national healthcare foundation, also found that nationwide, the uninsured rate fell from 20 percent to 15 percent during the same period.... The Commonwealth Fund survey found that 61 percent of those who were newly insured said they felt better off thanks to their new coverage. And nearly four out of five said they were somewhat or very satisfied with their new coverage. >The survey also found that since last year, awareness of the Affordable Care Act has increased significantly, although that awareness still lags among poorer Americans. For example, more than half of the poorest people surveyed still did not know that the federal health law makes subsidies available to help pay for health insurance. I... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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From the archive: Bretton Woods: >On July 22nd 1944, finance experts who had spent the past three weeks gathered at a hotel in New Hampshire, produced two documents setting out their plan for the post-war monetary system. In response, The Economist published this leader article on July 29th, paying particular attention to whether the British government should ratify the Bretton Woods Agreements: >>THE Monetary Conference at Bretton Woods closed its session at the end of last week with the unanimous agreement of all the participants to the text of two documents, one of them setting up an International Monetary Fund, the other setting up an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. (The terminology is confusing, since the Fund will conduct a banking business—that is, will deal in currencies—while the Bank is, in the main, a guarantee fund.) The Agreements now go to the governments for ratification, and it has been made clear that no government is committed by the vote of its delegation at Bretton Woods. What has been decided is the form that these two institutions will assume when (or if) they come to birth. >>These two documents represent a very substantial achievement. The subject matter was technical and... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Reading Francis Parkman's [*Montcalm and Wolfe*](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0306810778/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0306810778&linkCode=as2&tag=brde-20) and remembering one reason why I was so annoyed at Edward Said's [*Orientalism*](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/039474067X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=039474067X&linkCode=as2&tag=brde-20). The rhetorical moves that Said denounces as *orientalist* are made by Parkman, but they are not directed at Beijing or Delhi or Baghdad or Cairo: they are directed at Paris. Said never bothered to read deeply enough in the British literature on history and in the history of British political attitudes to realize that what he objected to was not specifically *orientalist* but rather British nationalist, with its core expression being: "No Popery or wooden shoes!"... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Ed Glaeser et al.:** Unhappy Cities: "There are persistent differences... >...in self-reported subjective well-being across U.S. metropolitan areas, and residents of declining cities appear less happy than other Americans. Newer residents of these cities appear to be as unhappy as longer term residents, and yet some people continue to move to these areas. While the historical data on happiness are limited, the available facts suggest that cities that are now declining were also unhappy in their more prosperous past. One interpretation of these facts is that individuals do not aim to maximize self-reported well-being, or happiness, as measured in surveys, and they willingly endure less happiness in exchange for higher incomes or lower housing costs. In this view, subjective well-being is better viewed as one of many arguments of the utility function, rather than the utility function itself, and individuals make trade-offs among competing objectives, including but not limited to happiness... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Simon Wren-Lewis:** Further thoughts on Phillips curves: "This recent JEL paper by Mavroeidis, Plagborg-Møller and Stock.... >...As Plagborg-Moller notes in an email to Mark Thoma: >>Our meta-analysis finds that essentially any desired parameter estimates can be generated by some reasonable-sounding specification. That is, estimation of the NKPC is subject to enormous specification uncertainty. This is consistent with the range of estimates reported in the literature…. Traditional aggregate time series analysis is just not very informative about the nature of inflation dynamics... >This had been my reading based on work I’d seen. >This is often going to be the case with time series econometrics, particularly when key variables appear in the form of expectations. Faced with this, what economists often look for is some decisive and hopefully large event.... The Great Recession... might be just such an event. In earlier, milder recessions it was also much less clear what the monetary authority’s inflation target was (if it had one at all), and how credible it was..... Paul observes that recent observations look like a Phillips curve without any expected inflation term at all. He mentions various possible explanations for this, but of those the most obvious to me is that expectations... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Anil Kashyap et al.:** Making macroprudential regulation operational: "Do the extant workhorse models used in policy analysis... >...support macroprudential and macrofinancial policies?... A new macroprudential model that stresses the special role played by banks.... Three theoretical channels through which intermediaries can improve welfare... extending credit to certain types of borrowers (e.g. Diamond 1984)... improving risk-sharing... creating liquid claims that are backed by illiquid assets (Diamond and Dybvig 1983).... It is imperative to start with a general model where the financial system plays all three of these roles.... >Regulation to fix potential runs, such as proposals for narrow banking (e.g. Cochrane 2014), also appears to be especially appealing. But if the fragility that creates the possibility of runs is not valuable on its own, of course, eliminating it would be desirable! The more challenging question is what happens if there is a fundamental underlying reason why maturity mismatches create value.... Intermediaries should operate in an environment where the savers who use them are forward looking, and the prices the intermediaries face adjust (endogenously) to the regulatory environment.... We are unaware of any existing models that satisfy these two principles. So, in Kashyap et al. (2014b), we have constructed one.... >Savers can... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Carola Binder:** Thoughts on the Fed's New Labor Market Conditions Index: "The Fed economists employ a widely-used statistical model... >called a dynamic factor model.... The LMCI is the primary source of common variation among 19 labor market indicators.... The main reason I'm not too excited about the LMCI is that its correlation coefficient with the unemployment rate is -0.96. They are almost perfectly negatively correlated--and when you consider measurement error you can't even reject that they are perfectly negatively correlated-- so the LMCI doesn't tell you anything that the unemployment rate wouldn't already tell you. Given the choice, I'd rather just use the unemployment rate since it is simpler, intuitive, and already widely-used... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Gillian Tett:** A peek into the IMF machine: "Liaquat Ahamed, a Washington-based fund manager turned writer... >...flew to Tokyo to participate in the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund.... Ahamed was not lobbying for policies, cutting business deals or reporting. Instead, for a few days he observed the IMF circus as if he were an ethnographer plunged into a strange tribe... A monograph, *Money and Tough Love: On Tour with the IMF*, are not just hilarious but shrewdly provocative.... Ahamed lifts the lid on seemingly irrelevant details about the fabric and rhythm of IMF life and on the myriad subtle cultural symbols that are used to signal hierarchy, tribal affiliation and power--and which the IMF economists themselves almost never talk about. Ahamed describes, for example, the dress code patterns, noting that: >>the men [at IMF meetings are] uniformly dressed in dark suits and ties, apart, that is, for two groups: the Iranians, who have this odd habit of buttoning up their collars but refusing to wear ties, and the hedge fund managers, who [are] young, fit and wear designer suits... [they] no doubt refuse to wear ties for much the same reason as the Iranians--to signal their rather self-conscious... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Aaron Carroll:** The Social Contract and health care reform: "The social contract is an implicit understanding... >between people and the society in which they live about how society should be organized, how benefits are distributed, and how shared responsibilities are defined for all citizens. The beauty of the social contract is that it conveys many messages, not a singular one. It conveys the message of shared decisionmaking, but equally it conveys a political message of accountability and responsibility.... Rousseau... society organizes itself according to the expectations that people have for human flourishing.... Hobbesian... limited rights and freedoms.... The beauty and the frustration of using social-contract speak is that it can convey political messages across the entire spectrum, from the most conservative to the most progressive... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Paul N. van de Water:** New CBO Long-Term Budget Projections Tell Familiar Story: "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)’s new long-term budget projections... >...show that the nation’s fiscal outlook is stable for the rest of this decade and then worsens gradually.... Beyond the first ten years, CBO has made some small revisions in assumptions that, on balance, leave the projected path of debt largely unchanged. When we released our long-term estimates in May, we said: 'No deficit or debt crisis looms, and the weak labor market remains the nation’s most immediate economic concern. But policymakers and the public should not ignore the long-run budget problems, which remain challenging'. That conclusion still holds... Continue reading
Posted 4 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...