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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
Carter Price had a nice piece a couple of months ago that it is worth highlighting: **Carter Price:** Miscalculating the Wealth of the Rich Reveals Unintended Biases: "In an ambitious effort... >...Philip Armour... Richard Burkhauser... and Jeff Larrimore... estimate... trends in inequality based on... Haig-Simons... income... consumption plus change in net wealth... [and] claim inequality has not been rising over time.... [Unfortunately] their methodological choices bias the results to downplay relative income growth at the top.... >The Haig-Simons measure introduces substantial volatility as well based on changes in the market valuation of assets.... Mark Zuckerberg... [was] one of the poorest people in the world in 2012 because his net worth fell by $4.2 billion.... Haig-Simons... factor[s] out volatility in realized capital [gains]... but... introduces... volatility in the valuation of capital holdings.... Inflation in housing prices during the 2000s... show[s] up as a rising Haig-Simons income... [but] much of this valuation was a bubble.... The authors... include near-cash benefits... a single national housing index... the Dow Jones Industrial Average... for all types of stock income... limitations on details of high-income households.... Each of these methodological choices will artificially bias their estimates toward a lower valuation of income growth at the top... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Jordan Weissman:** [Don’t Let Anyone Blame Single Mothers for Economic Inequality](http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/10/28/family_structure_and_economic_inequality_single_parent_families_aren_t_to.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru): "Conservatives... aren't... comfy discussing... >...skyrocketing CEO pay and Wall Street lucre.... They are, however, extremely at home talking about... single mothers.... In that vein, the American Enterprise Institute has released a new report.... I’m... skeptical... turn[ing] the inequality debate toward single mothers and absent fathers.... As Timothy Noah wrote in Slate years ago, the biggest changes in American family structure took place in the '70s and '80s, and they help explain why, for instance, the ratio between the 90th percentile of earners and 10th percentile is higher than it was 30 years ago. But the shift away from two-parent households doesn't really factor into the concentration of wealth among the 1 percent. And the rise of the 1 percent, and the 0.1 percent for that matter, is the real story when it comes to how income inequality is evolving today... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Jon Hilsenrath:** [Fed Critics Have Been Wrong About QE’s Most Ill Effect](http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/29/grand-central-fed-critics-have-been-wrong-about-qes-most-ill-effects/): "In an open letter to former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2010... >...a group of prominent academics and hedge fund managers urged the central bank to stop its bond purchases known as quantitative easing.... With the Fed set to end its bond-purchase program today, it is clear those warnings were wrong.... The critics also argued the QE programs distort financial markets. It is hard to prove or disprove that point. Stock market price-to-earnings ratios look stretched by some measures, but not so stretched by others. Junk bond and leveraged loan issuance has taken off, but corporate balance sheets relatively healthy.... But it is easy to see what didn’t happen. Inflation hasn’t taken off and there has been no currency debasement. Perhaps it will happen someday, but the Fed has been experimenting with QE since 2009 and it clearly hasn’t happened yet. At some point, you need to declare the debate over... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Jonathan Chait:** [Yellen Mentions Inequality; Right Scandalized](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/10/yellen-mentions-inequality-right-scandalized.html): "Even the American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Strain... >...a moderate, wrote that Yellen is now ‘in danger of becoming a partisan hack.’... The parties don’t merely disagree about the merits of inequality, they disagree about the merits of even acknowledging it.... Remember Mitt Romney conceding that inequality should only be discussed in ‘quiet rooms’?... Merely by stating facts about inequality in public, even without taking a stand on it, Yellen has placed herself on one side of a partisan divide. It's like saying 'Jehovah.' >What Strain does not mention is that Yellen is hardly alone among Federal Reserve chairs.... Hardly a week went by without Greenspan interjecting himself into the political debate. And Greenspan, a former follower of Ayn Rand with staunchly conservative views, had none of Yellen’s careful reserve.... Is the new rule here that, starting now, the Federal Reserve chair has to stay completely out of partisan politics? Or is the rule that they need to stay out of politics unless they’re conservative? Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Emmanuel Saez and Laura Tyson:** Income Inequality in the Twenty-First Century: Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
As I see it, Federal Reserve policy right now is reasonable only if the unemployment rate is taken as a sufficient statistic for the state of the labor market. And it seems to me the odds are 4-1 against that being true... **Matt O'Brien**: [Why the Fed is giving up too soon on the economy](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/29/why-the-fed-is-giving-up-too-soon-on-the-economy/): "Two years and $1.7 trillion later... >...the Fed's latest round of bond-buying, or QE3, is officially over. What did it get us?... The best answer is what it didn't get us: a recession in 2013.... 'Fiscal cliff', 'sequester', and 'debt ceiling' might be hazy memories from a time when [the Republican House] Congress[ional Caucus] was doing its most to sabotage the recovery, so here's a refresher.... There's been an awful lot of austerity the last few years. Enough that the economy should have slowed down quite a bit.... But that's not what happened.... QE... is the Fed's way of printing its money where its mouth is when it says rates will stay low for a long time. That's why, as economist Michael Woodford argued, QE works better when it's used with forward guidance that makes the Fed's promises about future policy more explicit. The question,... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
A very interesting piece by Tim Duy on the recently-concluded Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. The precis: the Federal Reserve does not view itself as moving to tighten policy, but rather as moving to a policy that is still extraordinarily stimulative--especially considering the level of the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate were the only piece of information we had available, I would understand the FOMC's position. But I see 2%/year wage growth. I see a prime-age employment-to-population ratio that is still extremely low, I see Japan where Abenomics hangs in the balance and a Eurozone where a triple dip is a 50-50 chance, I see the continued failure of the Obama Administration to fill Governor slots and the resulting rightward bias of the FOMC voices... Either the FOMC consensus or I am greatly misreading the current macroeconomic situation. It may well be me. But I do not think so... **Tim Duy**: [FOMC Recap](http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2014/10/fomc-recap.html): "To the extent there were any surprises, they were on the hawkish side.... >The Fed dismissed the decline in market-based inflation expectations. They clearly believe financial markets over-reacted to the decline in oil prices, and that that decline would ultimately prove to be a one-time price shock... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Simon Wren-Lewis**: [In Praise of Macroeconomists (or at Least One of Them)](http://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2014/10/in-praise-of-macroeconomists-or-at.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+MainlyMacro+(mainly+macro)): "One of the architects of that macroeconomic mainstream is Lars Svensson... >...key papers... maths and rational expectations... member of Sweden’s equivalent of the Monetary Policy Committee from 2007 to 2013.... Svensson... argued that there was still plenty of slack in the economy, and raising rates would be deflationary, so that inflation would fall well below the central bank’s target of 2%. By the end of 2012 inflation had indeed fallen to zero, and since then monthly inflation has more often been negative than positive. It was -0.4% in September. This week the Swedish central bank lowered their interest rate to zero.... Deviating from what mainstream macroeconomists in general advocate (and what one in particular recommended) has proved a costly mistake. (Svensson estimates it has cost 60,000 jobs.)... I am certainly not claiming that mainstream macroeconomics is without fault, as regular readers will know (e.g.) However it is important to recognise the achievements of macroeconomics as well as its faults. If we fail to do that, then central banks can start doing foolish things, with large costs in terms of the welfare of its country’s citizens... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [Suppose-Counterfactual World-That the U.S. Had Avoided Large-Scale QE since the Start of 2010... - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/suppose-counterfactual-world-u-s-avoided-large-scale-qe-since-start-2010/) * [Over at Project Syndicate: Material Well-Being in America since 1979: (Early) Thursday Focus for October 30, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/project-syndicate-material-well-america-since-1979-early-thursday-focus-october-30-2014/) * [Lunchtime Must Read: Jonathan Chait: Yellen Mentions Inequality; Right Scandalized - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/lunchtime-must-read-jonathan-chait-yellen-mentions-inequality-right-scandalized/) * [Lunchtime Must-Read: Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Critics Have Been Wrong.... Time to Declare the Debate Over - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/lunchtime-must-read-jon-hilsenrath-fed-critics-wrong-time-declare-debate/) * [Lunchtime Must-Read: Jordan Weissman: Don’t Let Anyone Blame Single Mothers for Economic Inequality - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/lunchtime-must-read-jordan-weissman-dont-let-anyone-blame-single-mothers-economic-inequality/) * [Afternoon Must-Watch: Emmanuel Saez and Laura Tyson: Income Inequality in the Twenty-First Century - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/afternoon-must-watch-emmanuel-saez-laura-tyson-income-inequality-twenty-first-century/) * [Morning Must-Read: Matt O'Brien: Why the Fed Is Giving Up too Soon on the Economy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/30/7298/) * **: [Robert Waldmann: Extra Thursday DeLong QE/Risk Smackdown: Morning Comment - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/30/robert-waldmann-extra-thursday-delong-qerisk-smackdown-morning-comment/) * [The Federal Reserve Retires to Its Tent...: Morning Note on Tim Duy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/30/federal-reserve-retires-tent-morning-note-tim-duy/) * [Lunchtime Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: In Praise of Macroeconomists (or at Least One of... Continue reading
Posted 13 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: **Robert Waldmann**: [Extra Thursday DeLong Smackdown](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/10/over-at-equitable-growth-suppose-counterfactual-world-that-the-us-had-avoided-large-scale-qe-since-the-start-of-2010.html?cid=6a00e551f08003883401bb07a214ba970d#comment-6a00e551f08003883401bb07a214ba970d): "The fact that the economy seems desperately in need of looser monetary policy... >...after massive QE tends to suggest that QE just doesn't work. In 2010 it was possible to argue that massive purchases of long term treasuries would have an effect similar to reductions in the Federal Funds rate. Now not so much. [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.ms.techprogress.org/?p=7308 >I do object to your identifying the risk born by the Fed with 'duration risk'. That is true only of the pointless QE based on purchasing long term treasuries. The Fed also bought agency issued mortgage backed bonds. That is a very different kind of QE (one which I thought would work so my predictions are--as usual--bad). >I don't see why anyone would think that the Fed bearing duration risk would stimulate fixed capital investment. Long term bonds are risky, because short term rates might go up--either because of inflation and the Fisher effect or because of high demand and FOMC fear of over heating and inflation. Actual physical capital is a hedge against these risks. That is long term bonds are a good hedge against the risk of lower than expected... Continue reading
Posted 14 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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From World War II Today: **Wladyslaw Szpilman**: [The Pianist: The Extraordinary True Story of One Man’s Survival in Warsaw, 1939-1945](http://ww2today.com/): >I was alone: alone not just in a single building or even a single part of a city, but alone in a whole city that only two months ago had had a population of a million and a half and was one of the richer cities of Europe. It now consisted of the chimneys of burnt-out buildings pointing to the sky, and whatever walls the bombing had spared: a city of rubble and ashes under which the centuries-old culture of my people and the bodies of hundreds of thousands of murdered victims lay buried, rotting in the warmth of these late autumn days and filling the air with a dreadful stench. >People visited the ruins only by day, riff-raff from outside the city furtively slinking about with shovels over their shoulders, scattering through the cellars in search of loot. One of them chose my own ruined home. He mustn’t find me here; no one was to know of my presence. When he came up the stairs and was only two floors below me, I roared in a savage, threatening voice,... Continue reading
Posted 16 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**David Frum:** Don't Knock the Reform Conservatives: "Sam Tanenhaus profiled a group of self-described "reform conservatives"... >...in respectful praise. The art director went even further: The magazine photographed 11 of the profiled people in an 18th-century hall, crumpled papers at their feet, an homage to J.L.G. Ferris’s well-known painting of the drafting of the Declaration of Independence... But... but... but... of the 11 people only six--Levin (mentioned in 19 paragraphs), R. Ponnuru (10), A. Ponnuru (4), Strain (2), Wehner (2), and O'Beirne (1)--are mentioned by Tanenhaus at all in the article. It's not a profile of a group, of an intellectual movement. Frum wishes it were--I wish it were. But it isn't. Frum continues: >As a group, they do not deviate very far from current Republican orthodoxy. But they urge that the next round of Republican tax cuts favor parents rather more and high-income earners rather less... Earned-Income Tax Credit be replaced by more narrowly targeted wage subsidies... consolidate... social programs into a “universal credit” for needy people. There is no equivalent here of, say, the willingness of the New Democrats of the 1980s to tangle with teachers’ unions... >Over the past five years, the American right has veered toward... Continue reading
Posted 17 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Mitch McConnell**: [Study shows Kentucky among national leaders in lowering uninsured rate because of Affordable Care Act](http://insiderlouisville.com/metro/another-study-shows-kentucky-among-national-leaders-lowering-uninsured-rate-affordable-care-act/): "As you know, Medicaid existed before Obamacare... >...The state operated Medicaid before Obamacare. The state can continue to operate Medicaid after Obamacare. There were online health insurance marketplaces before Obamacare. There are several non-Obamacare insurance sales websites now that are not part of Obamacare. There can be online insurance sales without Obamacare. Obamacare did not create the ability to buy insurance online—people have been doing that for years. Obamacare did not create Medicaid. Medicaid has been available for nearly (50) years... Of course, repealing ObamaCare would immediately shrink Kentucky Medicaid enrollment by nearly half a million, and quadruple online-insurance costs for those Kentuckians receiving subsidies... As I have said and will continue to say: there is something wrong with anyone who publicly supports today's Republican Party without having an immediate, practical plan for utterly transforming it root-and-branch into something else. And as I have said and will continue to say: there is something very wrong with anyone who votes for the candidates of today's Republican Party. Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: ...and that the employment, inflation, and future breakeven outcomes realized in that counterfactual world had been those seen in our world. Is there any question that in that counterfactual world the FOMC would right now be actively and aggressively on the point of a massive QE program--that the only questions would be "how much" and "how quickly"? Today, with the ending of QE, we live in that counterfactual world--with three differences: [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.ms.techprogress.org/?p=7294 1. Since the start of 2010 the FOMC has already done $2.2 trillion of QE--and has thus taken duration risk of a magnitude that the private market requires $2 billion a month to bear off of private-sector balance sheets. 2. As a result, whatever risks are involved in QE start from a baseline in which the private market is bearing $2 billion/month less in the amount of government and GSE duration risk than in the counterfactual world (modulus the Summers point that maturity extension has neutralized 1/3 of QE undertaken). And just what are those risks? And just how are they increased at the margin by starting with $2 billion/month less of government-issued duration risk in private-sector hands? 3. As a... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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##Material Well-Being in America since 1979## ####J. Bradford DeLong#### [**Over at Project Syndicate**](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-households-wellbeing-poor-and-middle-class-by-j--bradford-delong-2014-10): Over at Project Syndicate:The story goes: since 1979, the peak of the last business cycle before the inauguration of Ronald Reagan, economic growth in America has been overwhelmingly a rich-only phenomenon. America's poor and the middle class, it is often said, have at best only trivially higher inflation-adjusted real wages, incomes, and living standards send their predecessors who occupy the same slots in the income distribution back in 1979. While real GDP per capita in America has grown from $29 thousand per year to $50 thousand per year in 2009-value prices--total growth of 72%, or 1.6% per year--all or almost all of this growth has gone to those who now occupy the rich slots in the American income distribution. How true is this, really? The answer appears to be: true--with perhaps a very few caveats, but important caveats: [**READ MOAR**](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-households-wellbeing-poor-and-middle-class-by-j--bradford-delong-2014-10) One important caveat is found in the Congressional Budget Office's [*Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes*](http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/44604-AverageTaxRates.pdf): >[American] real after-tax income for the lowest quintile [was] 49 percent higher in 2010 than in 1979 (see Figure 9). Income growth averaged 1.3% annually for that group over the... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Paul Hannon:** [BOE’s Cunliffe Says Bankers Earn Too Much, Reducing Returns to Investors](http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/10/20/boes-cunliffe-says-bankers-earn-too-much-reducing-returns-to-investors/): "Mr. Cunliffe... noted that bankers continue to be paid very highly... >...relative to the returns they generate for shareholders. ‘Another driver of low returns on assets and equity is the fact that banks’ pay bill has not adjusted to the smaller returns banks are now earning,’ he said. ‘Put simply, shareholders have gone from getting 60 cents for every dollar in pay for staff to getting 25 cents per dollar.... But, given lower levels of leverage, it is unlikely that we will see, or want to see again, the returns on equity that we saw before the crisis. In the new world, pay bills may well have further to adjust.’ Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
If you did not see this when it came whizzing by, go take a look: **Carter Price:** [Why Should Policymakers Care About Economic Inequality?](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/policymakers-care-economic-inequality/): "It was long assumed [not just that] economic growth led to less economic inequality... >...but also that any economic policy efforts to alleviate inequality would necessarily slow economic growth. These views, however, were formed in an era before there was sufficient data to truly test this view.... In an early survey... Roland Benabou at Princeton University in 1996 found that the vast majority of studies said high and rising inequality harmed economic growth.... Sarah Voitchovsky... find[s]... substantial disagreement about the relationship between inequality and growth.... Recent work by... Andrew Berg, Jonathan Ostry, and Charalombos Tsangaridis... Roy van der Weide... and Branko Milanovic of the City University of New York have robustly found a negative relationship between economic inequality for developed countries and within the United States.... Other studies find that a highly skewed distribution of income and wealth depresses consumption... leading to unsustainably excessive borrowing..." Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Nick Bunker:** [Piketty and the Elasticity of Substitution](http://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/piketty-and-the-elasticity-of-substitution/): "A particularly technical and effective critique of Piketty is from Matt Rognlie.... >...Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman... show that the gross labor share and the net labor share move in the same direction when the shift is caused by a technological shock... point out that the gross and net elasticities are on the same side of 1.... Rognlie’s point about these two elasticities being lower than 1 doesn’t hold up if capital is gaining due to a new technology that makes capital cheaper... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**David Hendry:** [Climate change: Lessons for Our Future from the Distant Past](http://www.voxeu.org/article/climate-change-lessons-our-future-distant-past): "Climate change has been the main driver of mass extinctions... >...over the last 500 million years... provides a stark warning. Human activity is producing greenhouse gases, and as a consequence global temperatures and ocean heat content are rising. Such trends raise the risk of tipping points. Economic analysis offers a number of ideas, but a key problem is that distributions of climate variables can shift, invalidating stationarity-based analyses, and making action to avoid possible future shifts especially urgent... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
An interesting catch by CBPP from KHN: **Jesse Cross-Call:** [State Medicaid Spending Growing Slower in Expansion States Than Others](http://www.offthechartsblog.org/state-medicaid-spending-growing-slower-in-expansion-states-than-others/): "States that have expanded Medicaid... expect their share of Medicaid spending to grow more slowly this year than states that have not expanded... 4.4% this year, compared to 6.8% among non-expansion states... That is $6 billion in 2014 alone. If it is permanent--capitalize it at 4%--that is $150 billion more that the non-expanding states have lost. That is serious money. And there is more, because: >States expanding Medicaid also typically cited net state budget savings beyond Medicaid. States reported that expanded coverage through Medicaid could allow for reductions in state spending for services such as mental health, correctional health, state-funded programs for the uninsured and uncompensated care. Why? It really does look like trying to get your health-insurance system in shape by greatly curbing the number of uninsured makes places where you can save money without harming quality of care very obvious. Moreover: >The uninsured rate among non-elderly adults has fallen by 38 percent in expansion states but only by 9 percent in non-expansion states, an Urban Institute survey found. The fact that the federal government picks up the entire cost... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Richard Mayhew:** [Getting Dropped Hurts](http://www.balloon-juice.com/2014/10/28/getting-dropped-hurts/): "Back in 2008, there was an excellent study on the cost of losing health insurance... >...and then regaining it for people with chronic conditions.... $240 per member per month for Medicaid members in the mid-2000s is a massive number.... I am speculating that a decent chunk of the cost growth slowdown and differential for Expansion states compared to non-Expansion states is a more streamlined set of care.... In 2013, a person who made a few dollars too many, or had been on a program for a month too long would be dropped from Legacy Medicaid, and previously manageable conditions could become unmanaged. In 2014 in expansion states, that person would be dropped from Legacy Medicaid and instantly re-enrolled into Federally funded Expansion Medicaid. The only difference they would see in most expansion states was a different ID card in the mail three weeks later... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Fast FT:** [Lars Svensson: 1, Sadomonetarists: 0](http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/227162): "Lars Svensson quit Sweden's Riksbank in a huff last year... >...frustrated by the central bank's insistence on raising rates despite the deflationary dangers. His former employer has just tacitly admitted that the economist was right. The Riksbank earlier this morning cut its benchmark interest rate to an unprecedented zero per cent, and markedly moved out its forecast for when it will lift rates again until mid-2016, in an attempt to ease the deflationary forces gripping the Swedish economy. The Riksbank should arguably have listened more closely to its former deputy governor sooner... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [At This Point in Time, a (Larger) National Debt Would Indeed Be a National Blessing: (Late) Tuesday Focus for October 28, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/point-time-larger-national-debt-indeed-national-blessing-late-tuesday-focus-october-28-2014/) * [Obamacare Geographic Implementation Overview: Wednesday Focus for October 29, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/obamacare-geographic-implementation-overview-wednesday-focus-october-29-2014/) * [Afternoon Must-Read: Fast FT: Lars Svensson: 1, Sadomonetarists 0 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/28/afternoon-must-read-fast-ft-lars-svensson-1-sadomonetarists-0/) * [Morning Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: Getting Dropped Hurts - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/28/morning-must-read-richard-mayhew-getting-dropped-hurts/) * [Yes, the State-Level Benefits of the Medicaid Expansion Are Very Large. Why Do You Ask?: Afternoon Comment - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/27/yes-state-level-benefits-medicaid-expansion-large-ask-afternoon-comment/) * [Afternoon Must-Read: David Hendry: Climate Change: Lessons for Our Future from the Distant Past - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/27/afternoon-must-read-david-hendry-climate-change-lessons-future-distant-past/) * **Nick Bunker:** [Youth unemployment, finding a career, and labor market churn - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/youth-unemployment-finding-career-labor-market-churn/) * **Nick Bunker:** [Youth unemployment, finding a career, and labor market churn - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/youth-unemployment-finding-career-labor-market-churn/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Morning of October 29, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/29/things-read-morning-october-29-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Austin Frakt:** [Management](http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/management/) * **Gavyn Davies:** [Is Economic Growth Permanently Lower?](http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2014/10/26/is-economic-growth-permanently-lower/) * **Jon Faust:** [An End... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: David Leonhardt's Upshot is doing some very nice data-visualization work: **Kevin Quealy and Margot Sanger-Katz:** [Obamacare: Who Was Helped Most?](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/29/upshot/obamacare-who-was-helped-most.html?rref=upshot&smid=tw-upshotnyt&abt=0002&abg=1): [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.ms.techprogress.org/?p=7273 Key takeaways: 1. Having a state government that expands Medicaid is, of course, overwhelmingly the most important factor: look at Kentucky-WV vs. Tennessee-Virginia, or Arkansas-Missouri. 2. A state government that tries to hide the existence of the exchange-marketplaces from people can (largely) do so, and can cause a huge amount of damage in implementation: look at Wisconsin, Kansas, or Montana. 3. Even in states that did not expand Medicaid and where the state government did not lift a finger to inform people of the exchange-marketplaces, Hispanics have been signing up for insurance in numbers significantly greater than I had expected--look at the Texas-Mexico border. 4. With respect to what remains to be one, look at the Confederacy! (Minus Medicaid-Advantage Arkansas, of course.) At the end of the nineteenth century the Confederacy was taxed to provide pensions for the widows and orphans of Union-Army Civil-War veterans: now we have a similar pattern underway--although this time it is voluntary, produced not by northern Unionist-Republican votes but by southern neo-Confederate-Repubublican votes. 5. Given how broadly... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Daniel S. Geiser:** [Story from the Typhoon](http://www.ussiowa.org/general/html/10-29-44.htm): >The three of us jumped into the Pacific Ocean, holding on to a two-man life raft while Japanese ships followed the slowly moving OS2N Kingfisher. We hoped! >Thirteen hours earlier, 29 October 1944, the USS Iowa was on rescue duty. Carrier based planes from a Task Force of the Third Fleet were attacking the Manila Bay Area in the Philippines. The V-Division crew had prepared Iowa's two planes for catapulting which were to be flown with empty back seats minus parachutes to increase space. Ensign Ace Riggins, assigned to the Division two months before, was standing by to pilot one of the aircraft while I was checking Iowa's position relative to the Manila area and monitoring any information concerning downed aircraft. About 1500 we were informed by the carrier USS Hancock, code name Bingo Base, that two of her men were in a life-raft about ten miles East of Luzon. Their SB2C Scout Bomber had been shot down over the island and friendly fighters were now flying over head to protect them from enemy planes in the area. We were informed by Bingo Base that two of her F6F Hellcats would fly protection... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...