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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
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**Paul Krugman**: [The Simple Analytics of Monetary Impotence](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/the-simple-analytics-of-monetary-impotence-wonkish/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body): "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound.... >...Many... economists... don’t know about an analytical approach that, it seems to me, lets you cut through most of the confusion.... An infinite-horizon model... all the action takes place in period 1.... P* is the period 2 price level, C* the period 2 consumption level... un-asterisked symbols refer to period 1... no investment, just consumption.... >What determines period 1 consumption?... If we have rational expectations and frictionless capital markets--which we don’t, but let’s see what would happen if we did--the... ratio of marginal utilit[ies]... equal[s] the relative price of consumption in the two periods, where the relative price is the real discount rate.... Assume logarithmic utility, so that marginal utility is 1/C. Then... C = C*(P*/P)/(1+r).... [This] Euler equation... lets us read off current consumption from future consumption, current and future price levels, and the interest rate.... >In a New Keynesian world... prices are... sticky.... At the zero lower bound... r=0.... There’s only one moving part... the expected future price level. Anything... affects current consumption to the extent, and only to the extent, that it moves the expected future price level.... What you do... Continue reading
Posted 4 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**World War II Today**: [21 December 1944: Malmedy--lone infantryman beats off Panzers](http://ww2today.com/21-december-1944-malmedy-lone-infantryman-beats-off-panzers): >It was in Malmedy that Sergeant Francis Sherman ‘Frank’ Currey in the 3rd platoon of Company K, 120th Infantry Regiment, 30th Infantry Division found himself in charge in the early hours of the 21st December. >>The attack towards K Company’s roadblock began as an infantry attack. There was no artillery preparation, in fact, no artillery support at all. When the advancing enemy infantry got within three or four hundred yards of the roadblock’s outpost, they were discovered and fired upon. >>A spirited firefight immediately developed. Under the cover of machine gun and direct fire, the attackers advanced and took possession of a house in the vicinity of the crewless TD gun, about 200 yards from the positions of the defending platoon. >>The enemy made this house into a strong point and built up a line east thereof. Practically all of the hostile infantrymen carried automatic weapons. >>After about six hours, during which the men of Company K fought off all efforts of the German infantry to overrun their position, the supporting hostile tanks moved forward up the road in an effort to break the resistance, which the infantry... Continue reading
Posted 4 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Daniel Davies: The D-Squared Digest One-Minute MBA 2004-04-05 Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Dennis Perrin: Christopher Hitchens Obituary 2003-07-09 Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Simon Wren-Lewis: Bond Market Fairy Tales Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Paul Krugman: The Dr. Oz Effect Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Heather Boushey: You Can’t Help Today’s Middle Class with 1930s-Era Policies Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
**Nick Bunker**: Qualitative Editing Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Miles Kimball: Righting Rogoff on Japan's Monetary Policy Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Scott Lemieux: "The only two presidents who can even arguably been said to have presided over a more substantial body of progressive policy-making in the last century are FDR and LBJ, and both did so in significantly more favorable contexts..." Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
**Joyce Miller**: "In fact, The Invisible Backpack [of White Privilege] contains the complete works of F. Scott Fitzgerald, along with the Western Canon, largely written by people with my same Backpack. In rough weather, it’s handy to have a rich literary tradition to provide a validation of selfhood verging on... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
**Guy Vidra**: [Open Letter to New Republic Readers](http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120513/guy-vidras-open-letter-new-republic-readers): "I started my career in journalism... >...My first job out of college was as a junior editor for a small publication in Dublin, Ireland. When I moved back to the United States, I worked as a copy editor for a company many do not remember today called Bridge News. At the time, Bridge was one of the largest financial news providers in the world but was quickly displaced by a faster moving competitor, Bloomberg. It was the first of many times in my career when I witnessed a traditional media outlet upended by a new competitor on the landscape. >My career has provided me with the privilege of working with some of the world’s best publishers. I have sat beside talented writers and editors and share their dedication to informing society and impacting the world through analysis and insight. I also saw those newsrooms suffer through round after round of layoffs. I saw resources cut. I heard prognostication that the world of publishing was nearing its end. Only one or two of us will remain, many said. In the last few years, however, we’ve seen publishers old and new defy those predictions....... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Benjamin Schwartz: The American Conservative’s Christmas Reading Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
Simon Wren-Lewis: Money Impotence in context Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Links
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**Karl Whelan**: [Thoughts on “Teaching Economics After the Crash”](https://medium.com/@WhelanKarl/thoughts-on-teaching-economics-after-the-crash-50fa61a40629): "This is a long post on the state of economics... >...and how it is taught to undergraduates. The world is not crying out for another such discussion, so blame Tony Yates, via whom I ended up listening to Aditya Chakrabortty’s documentary ‘Teaching Economics After the Crash’ for BBC Radio 4. >Like Tony, I viewed the programme as a hopelessly one-sided critique of the economics profession. Still, it was useful in the sense that it packed all the regular criticisms about economics into one short piece. I agree with most of what Tony wrote but I want to take a different approach because I think it’s worth engaging a bit more positively with the criticisms raised. >My sense is that a large number of undergraduate economics students are unhappy with the way that subject is taught and many would echo the criticisms in this programme. For this reason alone, these concerns are worth addressing constructively. Even if some of the criticisms reflect misconceptions that students have about economics, this raises questions about whether we should allow space in the curriculum for these misconceptions to be discussed and addressed. ---- >**The First-Year Student... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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Marxism vs. Liberalism vs. Conservatism (with image, tweets) · delong · Storify Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Links
Tech Words That Should Not Be (with images, tweets) · delong · Storify Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Links
Benjamin Schwartz: The American Conservative’s Christmas Reading: E.P. Thompson's *The Making of the English Working Class Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Links
**Noah Smith**: [Cultural Liberalism Is About Personal Responsibility](http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/cultural-liberalism-is-about-personal.html): "Under a social censure model... >...punishment is communally imposed to get people to avoid unhealthy behaviors, such as drugs and broken families. Under a personal responsibility model, people are educated about the risks and dangers, and told that it is incumbent upon them to avoid doing the bad stuff.... Of course, this is a huge generalization, but I think you see this dynamic at work in the case of marriage and the case of drugs. The 'secret traditionalism' of upper-class liberals is no secret. It is simply the outcome of the repeated quiet exercise of personal responsibility.... >Social conservatives, in my experience, often tend to argue that the lower classes of society are not smart enough to handle personal responsibility.... I am not a big fan of that idea.... But I suspect you'll find at least hints and threads of this idea throughout the arguments of many social conservatives. So that leaves the question: If personal responsibility works better than social censure, why?... >At the aggregate level we now have a bit of circumstantial evidence favoring the liberal, health-and-responsibility-based approach over the conservative, punishment-and-censure-based approach on both marriage and drug use. Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Edward Luce**: [Too big to resist: Wall Street’s comeback - FT.com](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b048dbde-8383-11e4-8a84-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=crm/email/20141215/nbe/Comment/product&siteedition=intl#axzz3Lyq4slGo): "It was right to let Citigroup stay in business in 2009... >...even though it was effectively bankrupt. But should it be so much larger than it was six years ago? Is it healthy that Citi lobbyists wrote the clause, almost word for word, that was tucked into last week’s spending bill? >The question answers itself. It also points to two glaring deficiencies that will come back to haunt Washington when the next crisis strikes.... There has been no improvement in Wall Street’s culture--or in Washington’s revolving door habits. Bankers dismiss Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, as a populist. Perhaps they should listen to Bill Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve and a former Goldman Sachs partner.... >At some point there will be another Wall Street crisis. It could be a decade away, or maybe next year. Markets run in psychological cycles in which fear gives way to greed and then hangover. Greed is once more in the ascendant. No law can stop the next bomb from detonating. No regulator can foresee it. But they could do much more to be ready for it when it... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**David Jolly**: [Swiss National Bank to Adopt a Negative Interest Rate](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/business/switzerland-central-bank-interest-rate.html?partner=rss&emc=rss): "Switzerland is introducing a negative interest rate... >...on deposits held by lenders at its central bank, moving to hold down the value of the Swiss franc amid turmoil in global currency markets and expectations that deflation is at hand. The Swiss National Bank said in a statement from Zurich on Thursday that it would begin charging banks 0.25 percent interest on bank deposits exceeding a certain threshold, effective Jan. 22... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Paul Krugman**: [Switzerland and the Inflation Hawks](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/switzerland-and-the-inflation-hawks/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto): "A lot of people have been predicting soaring inflation... >...since 2009 if not earlier, and have refused to change their views.... Inflation truthers insist that the government is hiding the real numbers.... Normally sensible conservative economists... see the non-inflationary story as somehow the result of very special circumstances.... Martin Feldstein and others have claimed that it’s all about the 0.25 percent... interest rate the Fed has been paying on excess reserves. Without that... quantitative easing would indeed have produced... big inflation.... >So, can we talk about Switzerland?... Never paid interest on reserves... [now] charging banks 0.25 percent.... So has the Swiss National Bank’s huge increase in the monetary base, which dwarfs what the Fed has done, produced inflation?... Monetary base up by a factor of eight. Money supply up by much less, because banks didn’t lend the funds out. And consumer prices flat, indeed flirting with deflation. This is all exactly what a basic liquidity trap model--the one I laid out in 1998--predicted... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [Over at Grasping Reality: Hoisted from 2010: David Blanchflower: Welcome Back to 1930s Britain](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/19/grasping-reality-hoisted-2010-david-blanchflower-welcome-back-1930s-britain/) * [Ed Luce: Too Big to Resist: Wall Street’s Comeback](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/18/afternoon-must-read-ed-luce-big-resist-wall-streets-comeback/) * [Alan Blinder: ‘What’s the Matter with Economics?’](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/18/afternoon-must-read-alan-blinder-whats-matter-economics/) * [David Jolly: Swiss National Bank to Adopt a Negative Interest Rate](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/19/morning-must-read-david-jolly-swiss-national-bank-adopt-negative-interest-rate/) * [Paul Krugman: Switzerland and the Inflation Hawks](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/19/lunchtime-must-read-paul-krugman-switzerland-inflation-hawks/) * **Nick Bunker**: [Wealth inequality and the marginal propensity to consume](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/wealth-inequality-marginal-propensity-consume/) * **Nick Bunker**: [Qualitative editing](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/qualitative-editing/) * **Nick Bunker**: [Weekend reading](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/weekend-reading-20/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read at Night on December 19, 2014](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/12/19/things-read-night-december-19-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Rick Mishkin and Eugene White**: ["We find that there were precedents for all of the unusual actions taken by the Fed. When these were successful... they followed contingent and target rules that permitted pre-emptive actions... but were combined with measures to mitigate moral hazard..."](http://www.nber.org/papers/w20737?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw) * **Barry Eichengreen**: ["The best thing the ECB could do to encourage fiscal consolidation and structural reform is to banish the specter of deflation... [by] full-bore quantitative easing can do that. Those who object that such audacity would discourage fiscal consolidation and structural reform should consider what deflation would do..."](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-quantitative-easing-by-barry-eichengreen-2014-12) * **Robert Huebscher and Jeremy Siegel**: [Fair Value for the S&P 500... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Paul Krugman: The Simple Analytics of Monetary Impotence Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Links