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J. Bradford DeLong
Berkeley, CA
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist teaching at the University of California at Berkeley.
Interests: history, economic history, information age, political economy, grand strategy, international relations, material culture., information technology, economics
Recent Activity
**Jason Hart:** [Gov. Kasich: God Wants Ohio to Expand Medicaid](http://www.redstate.com/diary/jasonahart/2013/06/19/gov-kasich-god-wants-ohio-to-expand-medicaid/): "Governor John Kasich, a Republican, repeated his insistence that God wants Ohio to expand Medicaid... >...when reporters brought up the topic on June 18. Kasich suggested anyone who opposes Medicaid expansion will have to answer for their opposition when they die. Gov. Kasich said he recently told a state legislator: >>I respect the fact that you believe in small government. I do too. I also happen to know that you’re a person of faith. Now, when you die and get to the, get to the, uh, to the meeting with St. Peter, he’s probably not gonna ask you much about what you did about keeping government small, but he’s going to ask you what you did for the poor. Better have a good answer.... >Kasich leaned heavily on his Christian faith to push the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) Medicaid expansion during his February 19 State of the State address, implying the only options were to dramatically increase entitlement spending or leave Ohio’s poor ‘out in the street’... **Jonathan Chait:** [John Kasich Just Got Extremely Real on Obamacare](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/10/john-kasich-just-got-extremely-real-on-obamacare.html): "There are certain rules you have to play by... >...in... Continue reading
Posted 3 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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### **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * [On the Proper Inflation Target: Monday Focus for October 20, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/proper-inflation-target-monday-focus-october-20-2014/) * **Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman:** [Exploding wealth inequality in the United States - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/research/exploding-wealth-inequality-united-states/) * **Nick Bunker:** [Thomas Piketty, depreciation and the elasticity of substitution - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/thomas-piketty-depreciation-elasticity-substitution/) * [Morning Must-Read: Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez: Unemployment, and Product and Labour-Market Tightness - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/19/morning-must-read-pascal-michaillat-emmanuel-saez-unemployment-product-labour-market-tightness/) * **:** [Morning Must-Read: Daniel Davies: European Banking Stress Tests-Pour Encourager les Autres? - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/morning-must-read-daniel-davies-european-banking-stress-tests-pour-encourager-les-autres/) * [Morning Must-Read: Paul Kasriel: The Monetary Base and the Money Multiplier: U.S. and Eurozone - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/morning-must-read-paul-kasriel-monetary-base-money-multiplier-u-s-eurozone/) * [Morning Must-Read: Daniel Drezner: Five Known Unknowns About the Future of the Global Economy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/morning-must-read-daniel-drezner-five-known-unknowns-future-global-economy/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Afternoon of October 20, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/20/things-read-afternoon-october-20-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Katie McDonough:** [The right’s Lena Dunham delusion: Anger, misogyny and the dangers of business as usual](http://www.salon.com/2014/10/17/the_rights_lena_dunham_delusion_anger_misogyny_and_the_dangers_of_business_as_usual/) * **Ha-Joon Chang:** [Why did Britain’s political class buy into the Tories’ economic fairytale?](http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/19/britain-political-class-tories-economic-fairytale) * **Wolfgang Münchau:** [Eurozone stagnation is a... Continue reading
Posted 6 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: In the 60 years since 1954, the Federal Reserve has been moved to cut the 3-Mo. T-Bill rate when a recession threatens by 2.0%-points or more 13 times--once every 4.6 years. There have been eight cuts of 4.0%-points or more--once every 7.5 years. There have been five cuts of 5.0%-points or more--once every 12 years. To me that suggests that the Greenspan-Bernanke policies--aim for 2.0%/year inflation, with a 300 basis-point "natural" short-term safe real interest rate on top of that when the economy is in the growth-along-the-potential-path phase of the business cycle--were already too restrictive. Once every 12 years is too often to run into ZLB problems, unless you are a strong believer in [Coibion and Gorodnichenko arguments](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/01/chung-laforte-reifschneider-and-williams-vs-colbion-gorodnichenko-and-wieland.html) that price inertia is due to serious costs to businesses of altering price paths. [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.ms.techprogress.org/?p=7099 If you hold, with Jeremy Stein, that you are asking for trouble when T-Bill rates drop below 2%/year, and if you believe that secular factors have reduced the "natural" short-term safe real interest rate when the economy is in the growth-along-the-potential-path phase of the business cycle to 2%, and if you wish to have a 600 basis-point cushion to allow... Continue reading
Posted 8 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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Note that these are the *cities* themselves--what lies within the municipal boundaries--not the metropolitan areas: **Cory Doctorow:** [American cities, ranked by conservatism](http://boingboing.net/2014/10/20/american-cities-ranked-by-con.html): "A fascinating chart from Representation in Municipal Government... >...published in American Political Science Review and written by MIT political scientists Chris Tausanovitch and Christopher Warshaw. (via Bruce Sterling): ---- [refAmerican cities, ranked by conservatism - Boing Boing]: http://boingboing.net/2014/10/20/american-cities-ranked-by-con.html (American cities, ranked by conservatism - Boing Boing :: http://boingboing.net/2014/10/20/american-cities-ranked-by-con.html) Continue reading
Posted 10 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
A correspondent reminds me of this from a couple of years ago, that I now hoist from the archives: Hoisted from the Archives: [The New York Times Publishes Casey Mulligan as a Joke, Doesn't It?][refmulligan]: Why oh why can't we have a better press corps? This is really embarrassing, New York Times: really, really embarrassing: 1. The first joke comes in Casey Mulligan's first paragraph: the Fed does not lend money to banks on an overnight basis at the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed lends money to banks at an interest rate called the Discount Rate. The Federal Funds rate is the rate at which banks lend their Federal Funds--the deposits they have at the Federal Reserve--to each other. That's why it is called the Federal Funds rate. 2. The second joke comes in the second paragraph. Hansen and Singleton (1983) is 'new research'? 3. The third joke is the entire third paragraph: since the long government bond rate is made up of the sum of (a) an average of present and future short-term rates and (b) term and risk premia, if Federal Reserve policy affects short rates then--unless you want to throw every single vestige of efficient markets overboard... Continue reading
Posted 12 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**:** [First World War.com](http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/ypres1.htm): >Strategically located along the roads leading to the Channel ports in Belgian Flanders, the Belgian city of Ypres had been the scene of numerous battles since the sixteenth century. With the German failure at the Battle of the Marne in September 1914 and the subsequent Allied counter attacks, the 'Race to the Sea' began. >This so called race ended at the North Sea coast after each army attempted to outflank the other by moving north and west. This area of Flanders, described by one historian as having the dreariest landscape in Western Europe, contained the last gap through which either side could launch a decisive thrust. >By October 1914, the Allies had reached Nieuport on the North Sea coast. The Germans, as a prelude to General Erich von Falkenhayn's Flanders Offensive, captured Antwerp and forced its Belgian defenders back to Nieuport, near Ypres. >Under the command of Field Marshall Sir John French, the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) retreated to Ypres after Antwerp fell. They arrived there between 8 and 19 October to bolster the Belgian and French defence. The Allied position around Ypres took the shape of a small salient in the trench lines because it... Continue reading
Posted 12 hours ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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This: "Note to Self: CBO and Part D" OK, self-of-six-months-ago, what about the Congressional Budget Office and Medicare Part D do you want me to note? Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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So I followed my son's friend **Jennifer Allaway:** [#Gamergate Trolls Aren't Ethics Crusaders; They're a Hate Group](http://jezebel.com/gamergate-trolls-arent-ethics-crusaders-theyre-a-hate-1644984010) into the wilds of #GamerGate; discovered among other things that in response to the misogyny there is now a [Scalzi Gender](http://whatever.scalzi.com/2014/10/14/the-scalzi-gender/); and found that [Reason continues its downward spiral](http://reason.com/archives/2014/10/12/gamergate-part-i-sex-lies-and-gender-gam) with some more "harassment has been a two-way street" opinions-of-shape-of-earth-differ journamalism. I then thought I owed it in order to round out my understanding the picture to see what the honchos of science fiction publishing house Baen Books had to say about #GamerGate... Nothing: Should I be depressed that Toni Weisskopf and others aren't willing to say that the way the #GamerGate trolls behave toward Zoe Quinn, Anita Sarkeesian, Brianna Wu, and company is shameful and contemptible? Should I be pleased that they have apparently tried to rob #GamerGate of oxygen by prohibiting any discussion of it from their internet spaces? Or should I be depressed by noting that they don't think their web membership can even note the existence of the #GamerGate trolls without something going horribly wrong? Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * **Nick Bunker:** [Weekend reading - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/weekend-reading-13/) * [Janet Yellen and the “building blocks” of opportunity - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/janet-yellen-building-blocks-opportunity/) * [Lunchtime Must-Read: Mark Thoma Sends us to Melinda Pitts: Changes in Labor Force Participation - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/lunchtime-must-read-mark-thoma-sends-us-melinda-pitts-changes-labor-force-participation/) * [Morning Must-Read: Apropos of Damon Runyon: Nothing Between Humans Is More than 3-1 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/morning-must-read-apropos-damon-runyon-nothing-humans-3-1-live-roasterie/) * [Morning Must-Read: Jennifer Allaway: #Gamergate Trolls Aren't Ethics Crusaders; They're a Hate Group - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/morning-must-read-jennifer-allaway-gamergate-trolls-arent-ethics-crusaders-theyre-hate-group/) * [Morning Must-Read: Steve Randy Waldmann: Mark Thoma Wrote the Wisest Two Paragraphs About Econometrics - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/18/morning-must-read-steve-randy-waldmann-mark-thoma-wrote-wisest-two-paragraphs-econometrics/) **Plus:** * [Things to Read on the Morning of October 19, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/10/19/things-read-morning-october-19-2014/) **Must- and Shall-Reads:** * **Jason Furman:** [Inclusive Growth: For Once, Some Good News](http://assets1b.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Publication/MIReview/PDF/16-29-MR64.pdf) * **Richard Pancost and Stephan Lewandowsky:** [Climate Uncertainty No Excuse for Inaction](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-uncertainty-no-excuse-for-inaction/) * **Izabella Kaminska:** [Market economics means more than just supply and demand: Tirole won a Nobel for crucial work on market dominance](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c0f1c7a-5485-11e4-bac2-00144feab7de.html#axzz3GRmJqlPj) * **Reza Moghadam et al.:** [Euro Area — “Deflation” Versus “Lowflation”](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/03/04/euro-area-deflation-versus-lowflation/) * **Jeremy Hodges:** [Poker Pro Says He Didn’t Cheat in $12.4m... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
[Report of Navy Court of Inquiry - October 19, 1944](https://www.awesomestories.com/asset/view/Report-of-Navy-Court-of-Inquiry-October-19-1944): >The following is the Opinion of the Naval Court of Inquiry which examined whether Rear Admiral Husband E. Kimmel and General Walter C. Short were in dereliction of duty on (and before) December 7, 1941. The court took testimony, examined exhibits and allowed both officers to have counsel. No dereliction of duty was found. >**Report of Navy Court of Inquiry [October 19, 1944]: OPINION:** >Based on Finding II, the Court is of the opinion that the presence of a large number of combatant vessels of the Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor on 7 December, 1941, was necessary, and that the information available to the Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Fleet, did not require any departure from his operating and maintenance schedules. >Based on Finding III, the Court is of the opinion that the Constitutional requirement that, prior to a declaration of war by the Congress, no blow may be struck until after a hostile attack has been delivered. Prevented the Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Fleet, from taking offensive action as a means of defense in the event of Japanese vessels or planes appearing [in] the Hawaiian area, and that it imposed upon him the responsibility... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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[Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Melinda Pitts: Changes in Labor Force Participation](http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/10/changes-in-labor-force-participation.html): Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Milton Friedman:** [A Tribute to George J. Stigler][ref]: "I cannot pretend to objectivity in writing about George Stigler... >....For sixty years, he was one of my closest friends. My debt to him, both personal and professional, is beyond measure. Despite deep sadness at his death, I cannot recall him without a smile rising to my lips. He was as quick of wit as of mind. His wit always had a point, and was never mean or nasty — though some of the objects of his wit no doubt felt its sting. His occasional humorous articles — such as “The History of Truth in Teaching” — have become classics and demonstrate that had he chosen to become a professional humorist rather than a professional economist, he would have achieved no less fame in the one field than he did in the other. His death has left the world a far less joyful place for Rose and me, as for so many others. [ref]: http://0055d26.netsolhost.com/friedman/pdfs/other_academia/MP.09.04.1992.pdf ( :: http://0055d26.netsolhost.com/friedman/pdfs/other_academia/MP.09.04.1992.pdf) >George was a great economist, a great teacher, a great human being with a gift for writing matched among economists in the twentieth century only by Keynes. He always pretended that he never worked... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Jennifer Allaway:** [\#Gamergate Trolls Aren't Ethics Crusaders; They're a Hate Group](http://jezebel.com/gamergate-trolls-arent-ethics-crusaders-theyre-a-hate-1644984010): "My name is Jennifer Allaway.... >...I've been working on a new study on the importance of diversity in game content to game players, and whether or not the game industry is able to predict this desire. Game developers can be hard to reach.... By September 25th, I basically had all the data I needed. And then I got this email: 'Hey diddle-doodle, Ms. Allaway! A heads-up: your project has been targeted for extensive "vote brigading" (possibly ranging into the tens of thousands of entries). Use that knowledge however you will. Cheers'.... I went into 8chan—the movement's current and primary forum for coordinating their efforts—and found a discussion on a 'secret developer survey,' referring to my questions.... In under four hours, the developer survey jumped from around 700 responses, which had been collected over the course of a month, to over 1100 responses. The responses were not... subtle.... It appeared that less than 5 percent of the new responses had actually come from developers.... Responses like this.... I set about locking down accounts, emailing professors, contacting campus safety, and calling family. It was an exhausting process, but I considered it... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Jeremy Hodges reports: **Jeremy Hodges:** [Poker Pro Says He Didn’t Cheat in $12.4m Baccarat Haul](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/poker-pro-says-he-didn-t-cheat-in-12-4-million-baccarat-haul.html): "Phil Ivey... 38, won the money playing a form of Baccarat called Punto Banco... >using a technique known as edge sorting, at Genting’s Crockfords casino in London, according to his lawyers. Genting refused to pay up, saying the practice is unfair. A casino ‘is a cat and mouse environment, it is an adversarial environment,’ Richard Spearman, Ivey’s lawyer said in court. ‘It doesn’t mean you have to be dishonest.’ Ivey, who sued Genting last year, argues that edge sorting isn’t dishonest and he should be paid the money.... Both sides agree that Ivey was in the casino in August 2012 and that he won the money.... Edge sorting is a way a card player can gain an advantage by working out the value of a card by spotting flaws or particular patterns on the back of certain cards.... It’s agreed ‘in the present case that there are legitimate strategies that may used by skilled players which have the purpose and effect of providing the player, rather than the casino, with the advantage on particular bets,’ Spearman said in court documents... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Narayana Kocherlakota:** [ Clarifying the Objectives of Monetary Policy](http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5408&&): "Thank you for that generous introduction... >...and thank you all for joining us here today. This is a special day for us at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, especially at the Helena Branch. Dave Solberg, a member of the Branch’s board of directors, will complete his service at the end of this year. I would like to extend my personal thanks to Dave for his service to the Helena Branch and, more broadly, to the Federal Reserve. The time that our directors, and members of our advisory councils, devote to their work is truly valuable. Dave and his colleagues bring important insights about the economy from people on Main Street and on farms and ranches across the region. As I have said many times, we have no end of data at the Federal Reserve, but data are backward-looking, and we need all the information we can get to make judgments about the future course of the economy. So thanks again to Dave and to his colleagues on the board, as well as anyone else in the room who has served on a Federal Reserve board or council. We appreciate your... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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In which some more of my ancestors, fighting for Colonel John Glover's Marblehead Mariners, save George Washington from being encircled and annihilated by Howe: **Wikipedia:** [Battle of Pell's Point](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Pell's_Point): >On October 18, [Howe] landed 4,000 men at Pelham, 3 miles (4.8 km) north of Throgs Neck. Inland were 750 men of a brigade under the command of Col. John Glover. Glover positioned his troops behind a series of stone walls, and attacked the British advance units. As the British overran each position, the American troops fell back and reorganized behind the next wall. After several such attacks, the British broke off and the Americans retreated. The battle delayed British movements long enough for Washington to move the main army to White Plains, avoiding being surrounded on Manhattan. After losing to the British in a battle at White Plains, and losing Fort Washington, Washington retreated across New Jersey to Pennsylvania. >By October 17, the Continental Army was on its way to White Plains, leaving behind 2,000 men to garrison Fort Washington. At dawn, the British began to land on the shore, Clinton's advance guard of 4,000 British light infantry and Hessian jägers landing first. Inland, opposing them, was a brigade of... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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Yes, I am happy that I am able to postpone reading further in chapter 11 of David Graeber's *Debt: My First 5000 Mistakes* for another week... Why? Because Joe Wiesenthal wants me to react to [this](http://delong.typepad.com/20141016-gmail---fwd-you-can-always-judge-a-man-by-the-quality-of-his-enemies.----oscar-wilde-though-these-days-im-never-sure-about-quotes.pdf), which has to be read in parallel with [this](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/390504/other-bubble-amity-shlaes), of which the best paragraph is: >**Amity Shlaes:** What triggered Krugman’s pulling some kind of imagined rank on Asness was that Asness, along with me and others, signed a letter a few years ago suggesting that Fed policy might be off, and that inflation might result. Well, inflation hasn’t come on a big scale, apparently. Or not yet. Still, a lot of us remain comfortable with that letter, since we figure someone in the world ought always to warn about the possibility of inflation. Even if what the Fed is doing is not inflationary, the arbitrary fashion in which our central bank responds to markets betrays a lack of concern about inflation. And that behavior by monetary authorities is enough to make markets expect inflation in future... I will react by asking, to the air, one and only one four-part question: Consider whether one should line up with Amity Shlaes--along with William Kristol, Niall Ferguson,... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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**Paul Hannon:** [Eurozone Factory Output Slumps](http://online.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-factory-output-slumps-1413273732?tesla=y): "**August Figures Show Largest Decline Since the Months Following the Collapse of Lehman Brothers:**... >...Factory output across the 18 countries that use the euro slumped in August, driven by the largest decline in the manufacture of capital goods since the months following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and possibly reflecting a similar decline in global business confidence. The European Union’s statistics agency Tuesday said production by factories, mines and utilities during August was 1.8% lower than in July, and 1.9% lower than in the same month of 2013.... The decline more than reversed a 0.9% gain in July, and suggests it is possible output for the third quarter as a whole will be lower than for the second quarter... [refEurozone Factory Output Slumps - WSJ]: http://online.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-factory-output-slumps-1413273732?tesla=y (Eurozone Factory Output Slumps - WSJ :: http://online.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-factory-output-slumps-1413273732?tesla=y) Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**David Wessel:** [Lousy Economic Growth Is a Choice, Not an Inevitability](http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/10/13-lousy-economic-growth-choice-wessel#.VDxXam-ecxQ.twitter): "The notion that all this is inevitable and economic policy has done all that it can do... >...is defeatist and wrong.... The Federal Reserve has done a lot, more than some Fed policymakers would have liked, not enough for its critics. But fiscal policy in the U.S. at the local, state and federal levels has been a restraint on growth.... And gridlock in Congress is an obstacle.... Matters are even worse in Europe. Mario Draghi is stepping up his efforts at the European Central Bank with resistance from Germany. German politicians appear reluctant to take the widespread advice that a country with strong government finances, a trade surplus, decaying infrastructure, a slowing (if still low-unemployment) economy, and a huge stake in the European project should be investing more in infrastructure, considering pro-investment tax cuts, and raising wages.... ‘There is a real risk of subpar growth persisting for a long period of time, but what is important is that we know it can be averted,’ Ms Lagarde said at the end of the weekend meetings of economic policymakers from around the world. ‘We know it can be averted. And, it... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
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...the U.S. economy today is further from "normalization"--understood as a 2%/year breakeven inflation rate in financial markets--than it was in June 2012, just before Bernanke began talking about "unwinding" and triggered Ms Market's Taper Tantrum: Why the steep slide in expectations of inflation since June has not triggered more of an FOMC reassessment of its policies than it has is a mystery. Such a reassessment certainly was not on display or in *sub rosa* whispers in Washington DC during IMF week... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**John Williams:** [More QE Might Be Appropriate If U.S. Economy Faltered](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/14/us-usa-fed-williams-idUSKCN0I31Y720141014): "If we really get a sustained, disinflationary forecast... >...I think moving back to additional asset purchases in a situation like that should be something we should seriously consider.... The concern is the next steps that [the ECB] may need. That worries me a little bit. Will their policy response be as timely and aggressive as needed?... The markets are pricing in a lot of other things that might happen and a lot of those are negative. The cross currents are really the story. Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Janet Yellen:** [Perspectives on Inequality and Opportunity from the Survey of Consumer Finances--October 17, 2014](http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20141017a.htm): "I think it is appropriate to ask whether this [rising inequality] trend... >...is compatible with values rooted in our nation's history, among them the high value Americans have traditionally placed on equality of opportunity.... To the extent that opportunity itself is enhanced by access to economic resources, inequality of outcomes can exacerbate inequality of opportunity, thereby perpetuating a trend of increasing inequality.... Society faces difficult questions of how best to fairly and justly promote equal opportunity. My purpose today is not to provide answers to these contentious questions, but rather to provide a factual basis for further discussion.... I will review trends... then identify and discuss four sources of economic opportunity in America.... The first two are widely recognized as important sources of opportunity: resources available for children and affordable higher education. The second two may come as more of a surprise: business ownership and inheritances.... In focusing on these four building blocks, I do not mean to suggest that they account for all economic opportunity, but I do believe they are all significant sources of opportunity for individuals and their families to improve their... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
Martin Wolf, Larry Summers, Mohamed El-Erian, Brad DeLong: [The Institute of International Finance, Inc. | Events](http://www.iif.com/events/article+1485.php) Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...
**Steve Goldstein:** [Markets Pricing in Kocherlakota-Like Interest Rates](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-pricing-on-kocherlakota-like-interest-rates-2014-10-15): "Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota... >...may be the biggest dove on the Federal Reserve, but his interest-rate projections would make him just an ordinary trader on Wall Street. The current Fed funds futures contract is pricing in interest rates of 2% at the end of the third quarter of 2017. The lowest “dot” on the Fed’s dot plot of interest rates is for rates of 2% at the end of 2017. And the next lowest dot is at 2.63%. It’s not known for certain that the 2% dot for 2017 comes from Kocherlakota, but his speeches are consistent with such a view. For example, unlike his colleagues, he doesn’t think any rate hike would be appropriate next year. He doesn’t expect inflation as measured by the PCE price index to get back to 2% until 2018. And he doesn’t want any reduction in accommodation unless the outlook is for inflation to be at 2% in two years time... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...