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Omar Serrano Oswald
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My friend and occasional co-blogger, Suresh Naidu, is a professor at Columbia. He is also an activist for human rights, as is his wife, Radhika Sainath, along with her colleague Huwaida Arraf. Radhika and Huwaida travelled to Bahrain in order to place American observers inside the demonstrations scheduled for the... Continue reading
Reblogged Feb 14, 2012 at Demiurges and juggernauts
Well Im also holding tight on my chair, half around the world I woke up to discover that the Swiss franc reached parity with the Euro (and I just found out that the intervention of the Swiss central bank to lower the value of the CHF will cost us quite a bit as this will translate into cuts for the cantons; the central bank divides its earnings amongst them so we are having the no-tax hikes do spending cuts instead, that might sound familiar to you, down here in Lucerne as well). Still concerning our bet, my main argument is not as much about economics (although as you point out things can turn pretty nasty there too) but about politics. A break-up of the Euro would be such a massive blow to European integration that I find it hard to believe most EU MS representatives would agree to it. There are all sorts of reasons for this, structural (with power slowly shifting towards emerging markets), domestic (with radical right parties ready to capitalise on anti-EU feelings), and maybe even ideological. I think there is a genuine aim of furthering integration (even when Eurosceptics are a growing minority). Even in this island of Euroscepticism that is Switzerland most members of the political elite are supporters of EU integration (not voters of course, otherwise we would be already in). Now, you might say the political costs of rescuing the Euro might become too high. And that might well be the case, I just can't see how Merkel could sell the idea of a Eurobond to the German constitutional court. So for that you need to amend Lisbon, and whether that is possible... well, who knows. European integration however has previously given plenty of surprises (at the time the UK joining the union, or the enlargement to the Eastern and Central European countries seemed impossible) so somehow I believe that as disfunctional as European politics are, the political and economic costs are so high that the Euro will make it to March 2013. And otherwise, well at least the franc will be even more overvalued than it is now (just read this morning that due to the currency crisis, these days Zurich and Geneva are the second and third most expensive cities of the world after Oslo) so the flight (not the meal though) might be relatively cheaper. But then again the Swiss economy might be then about to crash. So I still hope Doug and myself will fly over to visit you in Boston.
This is a story about two Latin giants sitting at opposite sides in the Americas. The two, already the largest economies in the region, are poised to become number four and number five globally by 2050; at least according to Goldman Sachs. With populations of over a hundred million and... Continue reading
Posted Jun 9, 2011 at Demiurges and juggernauts
I just came back from a ten-day stay in Brazil. While I only stayed within the state of Sao Paulo (which nonetheless alone makes for a third of the Brazilian economy) it was informative in many ways. I’ll be travelling to most other BRICs later this year, which should provide... Continue reading
Posted Feb 25, 2011 at Demiurges and juggernauts
Omar Serrano Oswald is now following Noel Maurer
Dec 11, 2010
Omar Serrano Oswald is now following Mark Thoma
Nov 25, 2010