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The Michican Results raise the question about other auto industry dependent states including OH, IN, IL, KY, MO, and TN. Of these I think OH, IN, and MO may be more favorable toward Obama than may have been expected
Obama safe in Michigan
Barack Obama won't have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP's last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38. Romney just doesn't have much of a home field advantage in the state. ...
I have long ago turned off the Sunday shows and in particular the panel parts. Today it is nothing more than the equivalent of improvizational theater where actors are given cards with the issues to be discussed and the positions they are supposed to take. The goal is lots of heat and no light
Paul Krugman Appears on "The Week" and Thinks We Are Doomed
Paul Krugman: >: Update: So you see what I mean. We have a terrible failure of demand — and Carly Fiorina thinks the key problem is excessive taxes on corporations (our effective rate is actually fairly low). Hey, if only we had low rates like Ireland, we could have 14.7 percent unemployment… oh ...
A more important to ask is not why are they gambling for resurrection but who requires an economist to make the argument that is a zombie argument.
Understanding Trichet and Conpany: A Note
What are Jean-Claude Trichet and company really thinking right now? The most likely scenario is this: they bet on mean-reversion in unemployment, on the magic full-employment equilibrium-restoring properties of the market, on their role as prudent stewards of financial rectitude, and on a take-no...
Tim, The problem that your last chart creates relative to job creation is compounde by the switch in sales from brick-and-mortar to online. I track this monthly and for the last 6 months the proportion of retail sales that are made online of items that can be delivered was above 20%. See http://tinyurl.com/3v43eke
Now the shift in retail sales moves jobs associated with the retail sales channel away from the towns where the customers are to distribution hubs which by their nature employ fewer people and have a lower jobs multiple than the retailers that they replace. For example, the closure of 300 Borders cuts 10,000 jobs in the stores but also cuts jobs from their banks, coffee suppliers, bag suppliers, and contractors that make sure that the lights stay on and the plumbing works. Also the closure of Borders expands the amount of vacant retail real estate which means there is little reason to construct new retail centers.
Now part of that is a shift from print to digital content but the same is true for items that cannot be delivered digitally like electronics, small appliances, clothing, jewelery, linens, and home decor items. My guess is that by the end of the decade between 1/3 and 1/2 of all items that could be delivered will be which will mean a lot of the retail space that now exists needs to be buldozed and rezoned just like old industrial sites.
Households Are Still Deleveraging. Or Not.
Calculated Risk reviews a David Leonhardt New York Times article and notes: In addition, household debt as a percent of income, remains very high and household deleveraging is ongoing. That is why so many companies identify their number one problem as "lack of customers"… The picture looks lik...
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Jul 19, 2011
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