Having tasted with both Izak and Neal, I just want to add that there is no way to taste all wines blind at Primeurs even if you wanted to. That in and of itself creates a challenge to the blind taster, and will always cause the reader to wonder whether the taster can truly be objective. Tasting Cos d Estournel when it is served on the sofa at 58 degrees in an oversized glass at a private appointment is not the same as lining up half a dozen Ste Estephes and 11 Pauillacs -- absent the biggest names from either appellation -- on a table for a relative comparison. Neal is spot on with regard to the score being a snapshot at a point in time. Wines have a life cycle and it's one of the best parts of this business to experience wines as they mature and when you encounter them in different settings. To me the most important issue is sampling consistency. During Primeur, we encounter the same wine at several different tastings, from Grand Cercle, to blind UGC, to Negociant, and at Chateaux. The wine may very well be sourced from the same samples, but some will be fresher than others simply due to logistics and local handling. This was particularly true at Grand Cercle when it was shown that samples varied in freshness anywhere from 1 day to 10. It is not always the problem of the hosting association, or the host Chateaux which I can attest do a remarkable job at creating ideal tasting conditions. But you can certainly see the challenge it poses for the chateaux, especially smaller enterprises, to get samples placed all over Bordeaux and presented in ideal conditions over the entire month. We also note that several of the well known wine writers complete and publish their tasting notes before the main body of Primeur tasters even arrive. This stretches the sampling calendar out to about 30 days. This is the reason why more Chateaux present their wines only on their home court. To be sure, there is a certain prestige to break away from the Primeur Peleton, host your own event and (if you're Pontet Canet), and graciously lay out a 3 course meal for literally hundreds of wine trade and writer colleagues, with the most incredible cheese table you've ever seen. And present a wine or two from prior years, which is always helpful in the overall assessment. But there is also the need to control conditions for the young sample as much as possible. As Neal says, we're all human.

With #BDX13 pricing at hand, this post resurfaced. Good charts. Keeping in mind you are analyzing 5 wine brands, here is another interpretation of the data: 1. Regarding "time in bottle adding nothing to a wine's value", and your point on supply depletion, It would be interesting to look at sales volume at these price levels relative to production quantities. Is there a reliable way to assess this? Apparently we are a long way from depletion status. That said, if you showed the chart of 1994-2009 vintage release prices compared to value in 2011 and 2014, would we not see the price appreciation of which you speak from that baseline for the older vintages, or is your data showing a complete price retreat? 2. RE: "...Newer vintages have been hardest hit by the market's downturn..." that's one way to say it. Why might that be? Another way to say it is, "perhaps newer vintages were priced incorrectly based on an optimistic read of the market". And that, in turn, might simply have been a false interpretation, or a bit of projected hope, in the sustaining nature of the expanding Asian luxury market's appetite and purchase behavior for wine vs the rest of the traditional first growth markets around the world. Regardless, the factor that seems relevant here is that many believe the latest vintages were too dearly priced from the get-go (2009-2012, although many might say 2005-2012, ex08). As Chateaux leverage the latest "vintage of the century" to establish a new pricing plateau, then price subsequent "off" vintages higher than back vintages, in an attempt to secure for themselves, upfront, the gains that these wines have been historically capable of producing, it puts a lid on the entire proposition. Something that can't go on forever, won't.

Nice note @gavinquinney. That pic tells the story. Will be quite a compote come harvest in Bordeaux. That, or the prevailing Sauternes harvest technique of multiple tries will be rigorously deployed in the Médoc.

Great stuff Gavin! Two more: in Bordeaux, taste red before white -- that's how they do it at Haut-Brion! And Sauternes always has the best back vintages & open bottles to sample at the luncheon.

Great reporting and analysis, as usual. Lots of data to mine for many audiences. But it has to be said, based on what I am hearing from many would-be buyers, +20 to 30% for BDX09 vs 2005 is, frankly, shocking and disheartening. I understand major increases vs 2008, which have moved up significantly. But the economy, financial stability, and currencty valuations have NOT moved up in concert and if anything pose even greater questions now than last year (hello Greece, hello Spain, hello Euro will you be with us in 2012, hello US Debt). Ergo many of the 2009 vintages are pressing forward without regard to these risks, the clogged pipelines in the distribution channel and even wine lover liquidity. Perhaps Asia will offset all of this with ease. We shall see. Also, consider this: with such a quality vintage, it is an opportunity for Bordeaux to expand its market share, and drive acceptance among fine wine lovers who are new to the market. A few chateaux understand this, as your chart shows, and are pricing to gain share. But far too many are ignoring this major opportunity, seemingly hitting the "05 + 25%" button on Excel. They will risk not only their existing customer base, but also the chance to introduce and earn the business of new wine lovers. Finally, with RP bestowing 100 point potential scores on 20+ wines, the cachet of points is not what it used to be. How will the Chateaux adjust to the dilution of RP points on the consumer, and the continued rise of the CellarTracker community for valued critical evaluation? That time is coming, and at these prices, perhaps sooner rather than later. Miguel Lecuona www.CityWineJournal.com