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Does the consumer have a say in any of this? I think it's likely that given a choice, people will still prefer to spend a little bit longer (say 40 mins) charging their EV for the occasional long trips they do, compared to 3-4 mins to refuel a H2 vehicle, if it saves them a thousand dollars per year in fuel costs (assuming $6 per kg H2 and 60 miles per kg, compared to 4 miles per kWh charging at 10 cents per kWh, or less if using their own solar at home).
Interesting that their proposed sources of hydrogen include oil, natural gas or plants, but not electricity (see light blue arrow in diagram).
This could simply be the typical Toyota press strategy we've come to expect. "We're nowhere... we're nowhere... we're nowhere..." and then all of a sudden "oh by the way our new lithium-air battery will debut in next year's Prius"
Peak BTE (44%) is similar to the latest VW TDi engines. Being able to extract 30% more FE than the competition sounds quite optimistic!
Anyone care to speculate what Tesla might be paying currently for their batteries (at the cell level)? I'll kick off with $200 per kWh.
Elon Musk said recently that once we get to 400 Wh/kg, battery-electric passenger aircraft become a viable proposition.
@Mahonj, Snap! My first car too, 1983 Fiesta 1.1 (got 45-50 mpg in that).
I think the consumer will likely decide this one. If your fuel costs are going to be $3,000 dollars per year for the fuel cell car, but only £300 dollars per year for an EV, one can only be refilled at very specific locations and the other one almost anywhere, which would you choose?
It's still possible to provide a reasonable number of daily "sunshine" miles without a concentrator car-port. If you allowed a solar panel to extend from the roof over the windscreen and bonnet when parked, you could easily get 3.5 metres squared of panel over the car. (Of course it would retract before driving off!) The most efficient non-concentrating solar cells are ~38% efficient, which would give 1.33 kW peak from this area. In an overcast location (eg the UK), that would give you an average of 2.9 kWh per day, which is equivalent to 14.6 electric-only miles per day or 5,300 miles per year. However, in a sunny location (eg Arizona), you would get about 2.5x that, or 36 miles per day (~13,000 miles per year). Of course you would get much more free sunshine miles in the summer than the winter, but it would still cut your annual fuel bill massively, and of course no need to plug in. Any surplus could be fed into the house or sold to the grid if the car is not being used.
Various authors on here (including myself) have been ridiculed for suggesting this concept over the years. Good to see Ford are taking it seriously!
Germany will be entirely covered by Tesla supercharger stations by then, and their customers can "refill" at these for free. I doubt the H2 providers will be able to match that.
VW said recently that they are buying LiIon batteries for 200 Euros per kWh. I think that improves the chances that their hybrids and PHEVs will be affordable.
How often is a brand new technology immediately cheaper than the clunky old version? I remember when a CD player cost £1,000.
Transrapid and swiss metro have been talking about similar things for years, but with maglev rather than aerodynamic lift. I'm very much a fan of both ideas.
Ignoring the cost issues discussed above, I think it's worth considering the energy involved. It takes 60 kWh of electricity to make 1 kg of hydrogen, so this fuel cell car travels about 1 mile per kWh of primary electricity. A similar size BEV travels 4 miles per kWh of primary electricity. What country or economy in their right mind would throw away 80% of the hard won electricity? Or be forced to build 4 times as many power stations to run a fuel cell fleet?
Agreed, VW recently admitted that they are buying automotive grade LiIon for under 200 Euros per kWh. Give one of these a 35 kWh pack (175 kg) and you've got >180 miles EV range for 7,000 Euros. Half the weight and cost again should Envia make good on their claims.
Regarding the monthly output of German solar and wind, check out slide 16 of the following pdf: It stays pretty much constant at 6-7 TWh per month, every month of the year, which means the storage problem at least need not be seasonal. Remember this can improve quickly, the share of renewable electricity in Germany rose from 6% to 25% in only ten years.
I think the 'F-word' should be banned on GCC. We've wasted too much breath on this already.
Excellent charger target for the UK. They also expect 1.5 M new EVs to be sold in the UK by 2020 which must also be good news for the Ampera/Leaf etc.
"All those PV and wind turbines built in the '2013-2015 timescales will be broke by then." That could be the funniest thing I've read on GCC yet!
I think the most interesting thing to take from this is that the leading battery suppliers are able to provide OEMs with cells at E180 (~$234) per kWh. That's equivalent to $3,744 for a Volt-size battery. It's no wonder that the smaller players can't compete with that. Such figures also suggest that if anything the rollout of PHEVs will be quicker than expected.
Home batteries are just a win-win for everyone. Home owners can buy electricity at 5 pence per kWh at the night rate (or when the wind is blowing strongly) and no longer pay for peak rate (25 pence per kWh) electricity, so saving £800 per year. Or they could go mainly off-grid and live off their own solar PV. Or they could earn money from their electricity provider by exporting at peak times. From the nation's point of view, home batteries would add grid stability and reduce energy costs for everyone (less requirement for peaking power plants). The energy mix could also be moved almost completely over to renewables. From the electricity producer's point of view, they can invest much more aggressively in cheap renewables without having to pay for backup power supplies. They can also dump cheap electricity to storage when they generate too much (sunny, windy days) and buy back from consumers when they don't have enough.
Having one of these in the home will soon be as commonplace as having a hot water tank.
Hi Mahonj, sorry for the long links, but here are a couple:
Toyota sold just 323 Prius in 1997 when it first came out. Now it is the third top selling car in the world. Give the PHEVs time.