I don't believe in talent in the "handy wavy" way that people sometimes talk about it. Really it comes down to some basic and fundamental skills that give people a disposition for doing that task really well. For example when I was a child I spent a lot of my time improving my spacial recognition skills by playing certain children games. This allowed me to develop my ability draw very rapidly and allowed me to pick up guitar later in my life. These fundamental skills that are the building blocks to higher order thinking are what make people great at what they do. You can stop and analyze the fundamental cognitive skills make people great a programming. These are the fundamentals you want to practice. It's not an all or nothing thing. It's not "you got it" or "you don't." You just don't understand what "it" is and so you extrapolate your theory over some empirical evidence and call it fact. But you're wrong. And your right. When Bill Gates says that four years shows the extent of what a programmer can do he is following a rule of thumb that proves correct for finding good talent. But he's not in the business of improving people's programming skills to make everyone rock stars. It's obvious by his method of selection. So yes people can predictably show what level of skill they will peak at without guidance and working on the right things but that doesn't mean it will stay that way. The human mind is an amazing thing and not easily corralled.

We should be doing everything for science. You monster.