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John-- the link appeared to be broken for me, though it took me to arctic roos website. I tried poking around a bit, but I don't think I was quite able to find the dataset you wanted to show me. A later than normal peak also makes sense to me intuitively, for the reasons you have given. But if temperatures above normal north of 80 degrees are still well below freezing point, are these mutually exclusive conditions?
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on PIOMAS February 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
apologies, the 2nd 'overall mean' I used in the post above is actually supposed to be Median. I don't know if someone could clean the first comment up and delete this one.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on PIOMAS February 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Crandles: that chart only plots 1980-2010. One can look at the 'monthly data ranks' on that website and see how years 2011-2015 fared. for instance, take March. the year that represented the 75th percentile for temperature was the year 2002, with a mean temperature of -25 C and change, compared to a median value of -27.5 C comparing the 1979-2015. Not only are the years 2011-2015 all above 75th percentile, but they represent 4 of the top 6 amongst the 37 years. eyeballing just those 4 reveals a mean of about -24.5 degrees compared to an overall mean of -27.5. Eyeballing this new mean of -24.5 for 2011-2015 puts it more in line with Mid April for the data set 1980-2010. results are similar for Feb, with some variance. So while its possible the coldest time of the year is late Feb-Early March which makes sense to me intuitively as a yeoman, albedo could become a factor when the sun rises in earnest in the periphery N of 80 degrees. I'm not sure if the resultant temperature increase would offset what would otherwise be gained by cooling vis a vis climatology. That's why other people make the big bucks.
Toggle Commented 3 days ago on PIOMAS February 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
D-- this was discussed recently at the arctic sea ice forum. The short answer is that you are comparing 2 different models, despite them being similar in their graphic output.
Chris, If I may nitpick, the price of Oil in 2009-2014 was not significantly lower than 2005-2008. the oil drillers in the USA are having severe balance sheet issues apparently, and at even at high prices, most of the companies couldn't make it work. this is an interesting read. Website makes the claim that access to easy credit and low interest rates after 2009 allowed investors to drive the price of oil up to make the plays even possible. excerpt: "The current oil-price collapse is because of expensive tight and other unconventional oil and the market’s inability to support its cost. $90 per barrel WTI price appears to be the empirical threshold for demand destruction. Only the best parts of core areas of the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays make some profit at $90 per barrel and almost nothing makes money at present oil prices."
Toggle Commented May 16, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
I am a neophyte about arctic ice, but I have been lurking here for about 3 years. I'm here to learn about what is happening in a changing world. I found C's posting to be exceptionally distracting from the atmosphere this blog and its contributors has. I applaud Neven's decision and I deeply appreciate the hard work you all have done to make this a special place.
Toggle Commented May 12, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
As someone who has lurked with no expertise in the relevant fields, I do appreciate that people can explain their conflicting opinions, what they see in the forecasts/projections, and I try to understand the insights as to why they think it will be this or that. its a useful way to let information soak in, if you can sort of remain even keeled the information that is being read...
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
most of the cars on this road will survive longer than the remaining arctic sea ice.
Toggle Commented Jan 24, 2013 on Slogan contest at Arctic Sea Ice
Wayne-- i remember that well. I was working outside at the time in eastern north america. i remember it being brutally cold that december. i also remember those days in that the temperatures near greenland were above freezing. with no sunlight. if we our viewpoint is right, and we can predict some of the effects of low ice area etc....that gives our point of view a huge advantage. because everyone says you can't predict the weather. esp if events that were pseudo random in the previous contemporary times now have a new normal. i wish i knew more about these topics.
Toggle Commented Oct 30, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
i wonder if somehow a vector analysis of the CICE speed and drift could be done to confirm the Neven/Wayne et al hypothesis that quasi stationary lows are a statistically significant feature. for the record i absolutely buy the explanation provided, but on wunderground, i find Waynes observation that most weather minded people don't explore the causes of the blocking high to be present to be absolutely prescient. if a pattern clearly exists, it could offer a quantitative and predictive result. those are somewhat harder to discredit. im not very apt at being able to do these things, but its just my thoughts as a yeoman.
Toggle Commented Oct 30, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
this storm might be the mother of all black swans. the sad thing is, it shouldn't have been unexpected. is it possible for the entire arctic basin to melt out this season? if such a large area of the thermocline was disturbed, how long could it take until the system restores itself?
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2012 on Arctic summer storm open thread 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
i posted about this storm at wunderground a few days ago. for as excited as the folks at wunderground get at a 980 mb hurricane, they didn't comment very much on this storm. i can't say too many bad things about wunderground, its a great blog and how i got turned into this site back in Feb. i believe there was a post Nevin made about how the lack of sea ice in Kara/Barents was an ominous sign for the upcoming year. oh the things I have learned since then.
to the blog: I have been lurking here for about 5 months now, but since my university days i have always been interested in climate change, and believe we are witnessing some truly spectacular changes. changes which will imo change the globes climate. could a complete melt out change the hadley model? rambling aside, i am somewhat of a yeoman in the field. more to the point, this is not my field of expertise. does anyone have any insight/speculation as to why the arctic dipole forms?
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Jun 30, 2012