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Kris
Gent in Flanders.
Recent Activity
Rob Dekker wrote: Seems like things are getting back to normal in the Arctic ... Nevertheless, a tiny downtick (minus 10.000 square km2) yesterday at ADS Japan. And according to Reanalyzer.org indeed there could be some cooling down in the Bering Sea and Chucksi Sea zones, but from the 8th of februari the 'heating up' would restart again. Thus, as 2006 in this period began a steep climb up, it looks very much 2016 will keep firmly it's bottom position till the point of return ...
Rob Dekker asked: Did that ever happen before ? Yes, it did. Do compare: 1st of January parade and 1st of February parade And do keep in mind the UNI-Bremen charts are reducing any concentration below 15 % to 0 %. Meaning to sail or to kayak in such a -15 % environment could be a very tricky business. :-)
Killed two birds with one stone yesterday at ADS-Japan. A small downtick [minus 8488 km2], and 2016 again in bottom position. Looks like the situation will remain like that for at least a week as according to Reanalyzer.org the Arctic will remain "overheated" for at least a week. Moreover, we are at less of a month from the 25th of February, the date at which in 2015 occured the maximum extent [accrding to NSIDC.
John Christensen wrote: Do you have something to substantiate this hypothesis Kris? My worthless person hasn't anything at all. OTOH, the Britts have, so do have a search onto the netweather website. Incidentally, do you have something to substantiate the AO is all that important!???
Neven wrote: It's the slow, ongoing decline that's the point. The Arctic has been (increasingly) anomalously warm for several years now. Yes indeed. But it looks to me we are forgetting about the direct impact. Do allow me to remind you all of the basics of the Jet Stream. A "ribbon band", created by the difference between cold and warm air. The greater the difference between cold and warm air, the stronger the jet stream, and in our case, the better the Polar Jet will be able to keep the cold air into the Arctic. As we all know, in the past few years the anomalously warm Arctic air weakened considerably the Polar Jet, triggering this Polar Jet to meander in giant meanders. Resulting in large pockets of cold air moving to the South. Last Winter the East North America had been struck for weeks by this phenomena. This Winter, until last week, the cold air moved nearly always into the central Atlantic - to be warmed up there and then to be moved back again into the Arctic, with even greater warmings up as a consequence. It even happened this year the Polar Jet and the Subtropical Jet merged, at the longitude Florida --> Portugal!
A quick note, at present 7 ºC at Illulisat, the previous record being 0 ºC in 2013. Can we believe that!?
Toggle Commented Jan 19, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
On ADS-Vishop Japan and after another 'smallthick' on the 15th of January the year 2016 landed again at the bottom, 12,91 million square km, against 12,92 million square km for 2007, the second lowest. Incidentally, for sure 2016 was already deep at the bottom in early January, but as we all know, our Japanese friends weren't yet pronti.
Toggle Commented Jan 16, 2016 on PIOMAS January 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neit wrote, Given that the largest engines use about 11 litres a second. Good or bad, that won't be of a concern as the Russians are planning to do the job with atom icebreakers. There are already some references to in this very blog, and it's that what Dmitry Rogozin was referring to when he talked about " ...we have all technological possibilities for this...". Actually, that kind of icebreakers is strong enough to whitstand storms as the previous around Iceland (an island which really can't be situated into the Arctic).
Colorado Bob wrote: This ain't your mother's Arctic storm... AFAIK my mother even wasn't in possession of a tiny little rain shower, let alone an Arctic cyclon. And Colorado Bob wrote too: We Have never seen this before Even stronger, I won't see even this one as I'm comfortably at home 6000 km away from the events. Bottom line, there should be given a reason why this event will be of extreme importance. And, to bad, the Arctic News article doesn't give any - we better don't give alarmist and deniers stuff to feed on. Maybe there will some additional strain on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, but only there where ice fields hasn't been stabilized yet. Not so on the Barentz Sea side however.
Toggle Commented Dec 9, 2015 on PIOMAS December 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bill Fothergill wrote: ... you are misinterpreting the default display... Yep, and I stand corrected.
Yet another downtick yesterday according to the ADS-NIPR standards, minus 907 km2. As a consequence yesterday on the 5th of December the year 2015 had by a smallish margin the lowest area ever since satellite observations began ...
Neven wrote: ... keeping the cold in the centre of the Arctic and winds pushing the ice inwards ... Albeit the daily Reorganiser charts are showing quite the opposite? Showing since months almost the entire Arctic in an "over heated" state. And some borders [Bering Sea, NW Canada ecc...] quite a bit colder as usual? Addirittura, yesterday our other tool, Ogimet showed spots of -1 ºC and -2 ºC near the central Arctic! So, whatever it could be, I'm afraid we really don't know much about the reason why.
... and a downtick again at ADS-BIPR, [defying Saturn] minus 0,013422 km² yesterday. And so 2015 is closing in to 2012 now. Insomma, despite the record lows in Alaska, the gain on the Bering Sea side can't compensate for the losses at the Barents Sea side and Hudson Bay. Incidentally, according the the Climate Reorganiser Alaska is heading again to another "heat wave" next week ...
Bill Fothergill wrote: A slight typo there Even worse, bad a calculation. Looks like Saturn [The Bringer of old Age] has hit me severely. Saturn must be responsible too for the forgotten remark, namely there has been a small downtick yesterday. Albeit we can't assume the melting season already would have started, can we?
In accordance with the ADS-NIPR standards, yesterday 18 Novembre 2015 [9,0 km²] just dived under 18 Novembre 2007 [9,4 km²]
Pete Williamon wrote: While it is impressive it's not that unusual in October" Yep. Meanwhile, the "laptev-bit" has been nearly filled, with as a result a considerble slown down in ice creation. And there is still no ice bout 250 km North of Wrangel Island, which is unusual as well as impressive in the end of October. :-)
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2015 on PIOMAS October 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Ghoti Of Lord wrote: ... Obuoy 13 movie includes the ice breaker... So it is at Obuoy 8 movie, Obuoy 14 movie and Obuoy 14 movie too.
Toggle Commented Oct 5, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Some hot news from the Obuoy Front: Obuoy 9, Obuoy 10, Obuoy 11 and Obuoy 12 have been deactivted. OTOH, Obuoy 8, Obuoy 13, Obuoy 14 and Obuoy 15 have been installed and are fully operational now. Feel free to download the Obuoy collect file
Toggle Commented Oct 5, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Abbottisgone stated: So, I AM ASKING... And why do you ask!? Back in september 2008 NSIDC already stated NW-passage and McLure Strait would remain blocked the coming Septembers for years and years to go. We here in this very blog and alreday in the second week of August 2015 noticed McLure strait would remain blocked this year by the countless shelves on the loose. For sure the year 2015 will be remenbered as the year of the shelves on the loose and the rotten ice. So, why are you asking for the obvious?
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
John Christensen wrote: ... the opposite of the case with the cyclones in 2013 and 2014 Actually, we should add 2012 to the list as "the storm" in 2012 was a cyclone too, wasn't it? OTOH, from the NASA images of the countless shelves on the loose this year 2015 it's looks clear there wasn't a firm compactness in July-August at all. Yes, it should have been according to "the rules" [high pressures], but it wasn't. Yet another singularity. :-)
Toggle Commented Sep 27, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
UltraVerified wrote: Does look like we're at the minimum ... Of course. According to the temperatute anomalies for the Arctic at Reanalyser --> Arctic temperatures will be above avarage, except for the very Arctic center. Meaning it probably will be something like a stall for the next week, or better, there would be only small dayly 'upticks'. For Baffin Bay temperatures would be slightly above average too. Whereas it would be a different story for the Greenland mainland where temperatures are expected to be highly above avarage. Meaning the big floating glaciers such as Ilulissat and Helheim would further be prone to extensive calving events.
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jeff Dillon quoted: ... from the perspective of research oceanographer Jim Swift... For sure Jim Swift ia a man of science, nevertheless he (and his fellow companions) missed the scoop as well as the most worrying important: There was a seal near the ship at the Pole and people saw bear tracks on the way here, so the ecosystem we associate with the Arctic Ocean – a simple food chain from phytoplankton & algae, to zooplankton, to Arctic cod (a small fish that lives under the ice), to seals, and finally to bears – is active even at the Pole. Seals and their Icebear preditors shouldn't have any business in the center Arctic, at more as 1500 km from their natural habitats. Because the ice field is to dense thus the distance from one air hole to the next one is to long to allow seals to breath and evolve. And of course, where no seals are there won't be icebears either. So, if seals are appearing in the center Arctic, even at the Pole, it means the ice has been fragmented that much already that seals are able to live and feed there. And icebears have been forced to follow their dinners into an rather icebear unfriendly environment - over 1500 km away from their natural habitat. Making me repeating myself in saying 2015 even has been even worse as 2012. It won't be a good nighty night sleep for me...
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Taras wrote: Could you comment on that please? Nonsens like that shouldn't be commented. It's clearly a mistake, and we only can state Sam Carana doesn't check his home work before delivering it.
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
BillV asked: Is there a known reason for such a difference between DMI Extent and the others? Assuming this isn't a rethorical question, the answer is "Yes". And the "yes" means that each organisation is using it's own private standards. NSIDC uses a mean figure of the 5 past days. ADS-Jaxa use a mean of only 2 past days. We don't know really which standards the Dansks are using. But, for example, on their charts "the arm" still is almost entirely present. So, that alone could explain a 1 million square km difference. Let's say they are a bit over cautious and concervative in Danmark. :-)
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
AbbottisGone wrote: ... or do I just not know where to look? Apparently, as our Neven himself already wrote quite a few comments about that matter this very year. And other than this blog, just compare the Dansk DMI and Uni-Bremen charts from March-April to these of July-August-September. And although it isn't mandatory at all, you always could have a start here at the 1st of the month parade. And to sum up, early last winter about 50 % of the multi-year ice had been shifted to the Beaufort- and Chukchi Sea. All of that transport has vanished now. The remaining 50 % at the Greenland and Canadian Archipelago coasts has been divided in half, more as a half actually. On top of that, virtally all of that remaining MY ice has been broken into countless ice shelves. All of these factors together lead to my conclusion it never has been as bad as this year, not even 2012. Incidentally, today [=yesterday] again an uptick noted at ADS-JAXA, so that's 3 days in a row an uptick now.