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Herman
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The notion that a reduction in peak engine output (and resulting milder acceleration) is a path to better fuel economy seems somewhat obvious... I realize I'm getting older by the day but in my doddering memory 0 to 60 times of under 10 seconds were considered quite snappy. For those Yanks who were sentient in 1975, you might remember the Hurst Olds 4-4-2 with a 455in^3 (7.4L) V-8 http://www.automobile-catalog.com/car/1975/2371760/hurst-olds_cutlass_w30_455_v8.html The 0-60 times of 10-ish seconds made you the cool guy on your block. With a modestly-sized interior, a small trunk and about 8 (EIGHT) mpg in the city it was one of the dumber transport choices in the history of humankind, but, hey, who knew (or cared). Your average Joe was content with 0-60 under 14 sec. We could not have imagined a much safer family car with more interior volume, about 2 sec faster to sixty and three times better fuel economy... with an engine about one-third the displacement. What manner of magic is this, this thing called a "Camry" 40-odd years hence? Acceleration to achieve 0 to 100km/hr (if we're able to measure this way here in the US) in 10 seconds is generously quick for any normal universe. An electrically "boosted" start -- either through torque assist or induction boost with an economical low-voltage system -- to reduce that by a second or so is an acceptable luxury, but not "needed". If we can accomodate ourselves to these very rational targets we could get fleet averages up 5-6mpg in no time.
Thomas, I hear the safety concerns, but I never ride in a big herd. Where I live the roads are not bike-friendly and the boost available from a one HP motor is near essential. In all seriousness, the continental package is very nice and 250w would be fine in the environments you reference. If it were made in 500w+ I'd get one. I also agree about mid-drive and getting the motor off the wheel hub. This one is what I have: https://lunacycle.com/motors-and-kits/mid-drive-kits/bafang-bbs02-750w-mid-drive-motor-and-controller-only/ As you can see you have to build up the whole crank assembly and mounting/installation can be a trial. Ultimately I gave up on the mechanical part of the DIY and "contracted" the work to a local bike shop. (They hate e-bikes and so the price was quite dear.) I built my own 48V/25Ah battery. As Ferris Bueller said in refernce to the Ferrari 250GT California: "If you have the means, I highly recommend picking one up." It gets to 45km/h in a blink, but if I'm judicious with throttle and pedal, a 150km ride leaves some battery to spare.
It's primarily aimed at the EU market so 250w maximum (= boring). I have a 750w motor on my latest e-bike, in the American tradition of a whole bunch is way better than enough. If I pass some euroweenie riding one of these I will pretend to coal-roll him. (All in jest, please)
Peter the things you're saying are so entirely contrary to demonstrated reality it is remarkable. The modern mid-priced auto has doaens of electronic control units and millions of lines of code, and is phenomenally reliable. Some of the highest satisfaction ratings and reported reliability lie with electrified architectures. You are so far distant from the actual auto universe that, as physicist Wolfgang Pauli is purported to have said to a wildly misguided colleague "That is not only not right; it is not even wrong."
There is a Japanese phrase for this accomplishment. Memory fails me right now, but as I recall it translates to "way better than Tesla, and as a bonus no annoying, self-righteous, bellicose CEO bragging about a golden safety record that's entirely a figment of his imagination" (or something like that). Anyhow congrats, Mazda!
When we discuss the Norway case and the implication for electric car penetration, we always leave out one very important word. I’ll illustrate. Here’s the usual story: (1) Norway aggressively supports plug-in vehicles. The buyer pays considerably lower purchase tax (amounting to nearly the price of the vehicle in some cases), permits special lane privileges, forgives/eliminates city entry and road tolls, provides free parking, and heavily subsidizes charging at residences and workplaces. Norway has the highest price for petrol and diesel, greatly encouraging the use of stored electrochemical energy for personal transport. This is bolstered by enormous renewable energy supplies (hydroelectric). As a collateral influence, Norway’s excellent public transport system eases the pressure a driver may perceive about range, allowing a simple and affordable alternative if range is perceived to be limiting for some drives. Finally, Norway is both wealthy (with a sovereign “rainy day” trust of over US$1M per citizen) and characterized by a very “green” cultural consciousness. (2) Norway’s market share of new LDV’s by Plug-Ins is 25%. Have you figured it out? Hint: the word is missing from (2). OK, here you go: the missing word is ONLY: Norway’s market share of new LDV’s by Plug-Ins is ONLY 25%. If the story for Plug-Ins is so compelling AND it has the most verdant opportunity possible, why isn’t it 50% or more? And how will the rest of the world even come close? (Note: before you have a cow, please know I’ve been a Plug-In driver since 2013.)
"sleeve-valve... Design from the past." What isn't? In 2005 I would've called space vector control of an induction motor a "design from the past". And yet Tesla managed to apply the much-improved processing (and, subsequently, software) of the late-00's and make a much more efficient and responsive drive train based on that core concept. Numerous ICE concepts get revived because improvements in economically practical fine-tolerance machining, materials (especially treatment/coating and joining methods), tribology, sensors and processing power made them practical. The oil consumption issues and limitations to variable timing of sleeve valve concepts aren't impossibilities anymore. Afforable mass-manufacture of engines like this for last-mile mobility in India will make a real impact on transport pollution much sooner than the fantasies of shanty-dwelling tuk tuk operators recharging Li batteries from a 2 sq meter PV panel or a grid that doesn't exist. I'm not saying don't electrify these vehicles. I'm personally involved with a Delhi-based business that builds motors for just that purpose, and they sell a few hundred a month. But customers are boutique buyers who are far outnumbered by the smoky masses of impoverished operators who buy high-sulfur diesel from roadside sellers and have no reliable access to electricity. There is no social cohort of people more willing to aspire endlessly (and unsuccessfully) to the Perfect while allowing the many opportunties for the Better to slip away than EV dreamers.
"The 12 passenger Model X shuttle will reduce traffic congestion with or without autonomy." Yes, the concept of a 12 psgr van is something the world has never seen, and it will revolutionize urban mobility.
The company is basically a seller of hallucinogens, in this case Hopium. They have no manufacvturing at all and have variously operated from small business "suites" and storefronts in Montana. The leadership of the company has transitioned from the original set of technical minds (who wrote the nominally usful handful of patents in their portfolio) to a group of former Eagle Picher managers who were let go under the 2016 restructuring. They have raised a total of $13.6M in a set of eight equity offerings since 2012; the last one in Feb netted only $75k (all this is abvailable in Form D filings at sec.gov). While Zn-Air is theoretically feasible and has been the topic of many a glowing experimental result (and subsequent claims of imminent commercialization), this "business" teeters between the realms of overoptimism and outright scam. For the protection of public treasure and private wealth, I conservatively vote scam.
Elon has already said LiDAR is unneccessary. And if Elon doesn't need it then what makes the huge crowd of earth-hating-car-companies-who-are-not-Tesla think it makes any sense? Clearly there are enormously wasteful enterprises out there who don't understand they are doomed... DOOMED, I tell you... in their Quixotic attempts to surpass the juggernaut of Tesla, The Car Company That Isn't a Car Company.
I'd be interested in seeing another version of this study looking at active gamers, particlurly those playing the more advanced first-person shooter games that allow free-roaming. No, I'm not a gamer (too old and I cannot develop muscle memory for rapid motion of thumbs), but the quick responses and complex coordination of movement in a world of very "complex dynamics", to quote the study, are as difficult to master as driving.
mahon, may I suggest the Zumaround miniZum. It's based on the Sidewalker Atom, which is a real-live grown-up scooter with 12" inflatable wheels a handlebar height made for the over 180-cm crowd and not just the 50% demographic. I don't take it on a crowded bus but you can still make sense of it in the city. I'm a fatty (yes: American) and I love mine. As for harassment: I ignore it. Plus this little critter will go fast and you can get away. But if agreesive people want to put hands on then of course in the US we have fairly liberal concealed weapon laws... http://www.bikecraze.com/Zumaround-MiniZum-Electric-12-Hybrid-Sco-p/minizum-elec.htm
Do "all chip makers" generally have a "reference design" for a complete subsystem/system with their products? I have not noticed an Intel's refernce design for a Laptop or a Tablet, for example. I have not seen Cree's reference design for a complete motor drive or DC-to-DC converter with all the bits. I think you're incorrect.
Ooops, I missed your point, Jimr, which was about the comparison to a shoebox. Here's a U-line standard box for "children's shoes" at 9 x 7 x 4 = 252in^3 (228mm x 178mm x 101 = 4.1 liters) https://www.uline.com/Product/ProductDetailRootItem?modelnumber=S-11570 This does not come close to holding my size 13D Clown attire. (That's MY version of a shoe box and I'd be impressed even then to hold 100kW of motor drive.)
Jimr, we forget what the cube function means sometimes. To us un-metricized Americans, that's a cube six and a quarter inches per side. That's SMALL, expecially when you consider it can work with a variety of electromagnetic "mates" and apparently not tightly coupled (so feeder noise is an issue as well). This is one of the key sea changes coming in cars: the absolute commoditization of high-performance power electronics. There's no reason for car manufacturers ("integrators") to be in the motor drive business.
While the events of 1980 were creating the circumstances of global petroleum exploration and production, Kennedy Miller Productions, then a small Australian film company, was finalizing script details on a sequel to their franchise movie and its associated star. The Road Warrior depicted a destitute post-apocalyptic world in which near-empty roads and starved remaining populations, bereft of fuels, battled scattered, ruthless criminal warlords for the remaining drops of petrol. At that time, the world consumed 64Mbbl/day of 642Bbbl of proven reserves. Only 27 years left: long before 2007 we’d be wearing tattered clothing in the middle of the desert, battling guys with spiked leather collars for a hubcap full of fuel scavenged from a horrendous wreck. Sharing scraps of dog food with our faithful Cattle Dog, we’d hope not to be the guy who tries to catch the razor-edged boomerang. Yeah. Anyhow it’s 2017, we’ve used up 1980s proven reserves more than twice over, we’re consuming 94Mbbl day, proved reserves stand at about 1.6Bbbl, and technologies to reduce fuel per psgr-mi(km) gets better every day. And US production has gone from ~10 to around 15Mbbl/day. I had a really cool studded leather bracelet that I wore to a Clash concert and to Metallica’s early shows in the Battery in ’82, but long since relegated it to a box for silly discarded things as I have done with endless Oilpocalypse tales. We never got a Cattle Dog but I adopted a Pound Hound brindle pit bull mix that looks pretty scary in her scruffy, scarred and muscular fashion, and sometimes she rides with me in the Volt while we seek out gangs of pillaging fuel thieves. Mostly we end up at the dog park, where she shows fine manners romping amongst the defenseless retrievers who would have died guarding the last liters of precious fuel.
The ruse of comparing nameplate capacity for solar and wind continues unabated, Davemart. Having read the articles by advocates stating, as this one from FT does: "Renewables overtake coal as world's largest source of power capacity", the casual observer of energy (i.e., most people) think that all coal plants could simply be shut down now with no ill economic or public health effect (yes, gross shortfalls in power generation negatively affect the wellness of the population). Sad, but folks have other things to worry about. And Henry, the US nuclear as a whole has been over 90% for three years running, and that includes unplanned maintenance. This is the definition of capacity factor: "The net capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of its actual output over a period of time, to its potential output if it were possible for it to operate at full nameplate capacity continuously over the same period of time." It's about OUTPUT, not whether the output is used or not as a result of grid design and operation. If you want to apply a derating factor, the solar and wind will look even worse. NPPs do not need storage. Spend storage money to improve the usefulness of renewables? Of course, but at the same time the cost of storage should be factored in to the fake news versions of solar cost at x cents/kW. (Also for the time being, the fairly awful present capacity factors of NG facilities are largely attributable to the intermittency of wind, not the reliability of NG.) As for the AES battery source: did anyone stop to note these are LG Chem (which for some reason - not a nefarious one - was left out of the article)? AES has certified several manufacturers to supply cells, but currently only LG has the lock on the Advancion installations.
A hideous converence call and even uglier 8K. Looking forward to the details of the 10K and the further valuation decay resulting. Religious adherents of the Church of Tesla actually think "pre-production cars" were crash tested for record, so there is plenty of hilarity for observers like yours truly. Musk readily admitted in the conference call that dies for body production are not even complete and installed yet, much less having validated configurations and stamping processes. "Crash testing" consists of ramming hand-built Body-in-White models to validate designs and modelling tools. Not sure Musk knows the difference, but in any case he certainly doesn't want innocent moneylenders to know. There will be no actual M3 production deliveries to Tesla showroom floors before 2018 and every sentient being in the wold knows that. Solar City acquisition was a disaster of disasters, contributing $85M of cash and $Bs in debt for the price of printing $2.6B in TSLA shares. Total sales between heritage SCTY business and Tesla Energy Storage was $132M in Q4, $78M less than SCTY alone last qtr. Most comical was Musk telling all the sad tale of ZEV credits (again), and his assertion that Tesla gets "50 cents on the dollar". Awesome. Sadly the markets will raise money for another spectacular losing year for Tesla, adding to the $3B+ of retained losses on the balance sheet; there is no risk of BK anytime soon.
Despite all the bravado associated with Google and its various spinoffs and partnerships, Uber ascends to the top of endemic arrogance. The recent public tribulations about poor treatment of women is the first scratch of the surface. It would be great to see them take a lead pipe to the knees from a tough legal action for IP theft.
Nope. Won't ever happen. Tesla is not using LiDAR, so the whole idea of using it isn't aligned with The Vision.
Stupid, worthless Toyota. And REALLY stupid loser Camry. Only sold about 7,000,000 in the US since the badge was introduced here in 1982. And 2016 Global sales of Camry were a mere 740,000 or so. I don't know why they keep building it.
Horrible, terrible, awful, really really bad idea to use Mobileye. Just dumb and not disruptive and won't work and planet-destroying. Because TeslaTeslaTeslaTeslaTeslaTeslaTeslaTesla. Yours, HenrikChange
Hello, Henrik/Change. You note this: "This is also why Tesla needs to make their factories so big." And yet Tesla says they will achieve unheard of factory "volumetric efficiency". Which is it?
Trees, you have no idea how refreshing it was to find your post here before Henrik comes to paste his (1) planet destroying ICE (2) 1000000000 mi electric drivetrain and (3) TeslaTeslaTeslaTeslaTeslaTesla comments once again. Personally I drive a PHEV ('13 Volt). Now that the mid-continental US winter has arrived I'm reminded of how much an ICE makes sense when properly used -- even one that isn't nearly as advanced as the engines that are finding their way to the street in the next couple of years. When I drove a Leaf for two winters, I was dismayed to calculate the energy use to run the car in the cold (below 32F/0C). Preheat was mandatory to preserve range, and when in stop-and-go traffic the 3-4kW constant load, as well as low battery temperature, consumed range like crazy. When I stopped to realize that I was using Coal/NG-produced electricity transmitted/transported 10s of km to charge a battery that was then discharged through a resistance heater, in fact an ICE was a less wasteful solution. Without question, below 15F/-10C, allowing the engine to cycle about 20% of the time is a net emission savings (this is my setting on the Volt). Overall, with the consideration of vehicle mass (which directly affects the production of particulates from tire wear as well as the embedded energy in materials) and of course the price of the product which needs to be affordable enough to get the more efficient answer into the hands of drivers, the advanced ICE with low-voltage (48v) electrification is the answer for the great majority fraction of drivers for the next decade or so. Yes, some of us will definitely want the EV driving experience for much of our daily transport (I certainly do) and will opt for a Plug-In variant. Zero-tailpipe emission operation may be required in some urban areas. And some will live in the right climate with the infrastructure for truly convenient charging and choose the BEV. Electrification will permeate the fleets of N America, Europe, Japan and probably China. But ICE technology will still have a significant place, with probably 2/3 of cars sold in OECD nations having an engine performing some function in LDVs through 2030.
Our little Euro/NAmerican peephole on the world sadly has a very narrow field of view. Example: China has just announced that if everything works out they way they hope, growth in Coal-powered electrical capacity is nonetheless "projected to be stronger than previously expected.” How much? Well, since you asked: a little under 200GW more coal-fired generation capacity over the next four years. That's if China can manage to structure the grid expansion and power increases without the ADDITIONAL 150GW coal capacity currently in the pipeline. Yeah: it could be over 300GW more. In four years. Just in China. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-07/china-coal-power-generation-capacity-may-rise-19-in-5-year-plan ) You could add 25-30odd GW permitted and in various phases of construction in India (assuming the usual gigantic delays and cancellations that take 70% of the projects out of the running -- plans actually say about 75GW) 20GW in Turkey 40GW or more between Vietnam, SKorea and Indonesia etc. (and all these are conservative numbers, hoping that the rate of Natural Gas adoption renewable project growth can be sustained) The US's remaining Coal-fired capacity of 275GW or so could be completely eliminated by 2020 and not replaced by ANY fossil fuels and the world's coal emissions will continue to rise. The concept of a $25-50B hyperloop project in CA making any difference to this momentum is hilarious.