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The way the Oil situation has developed where Oil & Gas is being discovered and produced around the World both adding centuries of reserves and now increasingly being produced from depths where dinosaurs never roamed. The Abiotic Theory as a source of Oil is being proved more and more,every day, and with it planetary reserves of far greater magnitudes. So hydrocarbons are suddenly not in any danger of becoming scarce, in the next several centuries. The rapid way the over-exagerated Hoax of CAGW is collapsing, we will soon be able to return to chasing after and cleaning up real, genuine toxic emissions. I fully support making ICE autos as emissions free as EVs, the automakers have advocated and EPA is tightening regulations to do. The tiny 3-4% that Mankind adds of CO2 is wonderful plant food, needed to feed our forests and agricultural harvests, which have been starved of enough of it for eons, since they evolved. NAFTAites already bio-sequestrate every gram of Mankind originated CO2, as well as the vast majority of CO2 that Nature annually produces. Our forests and croplands cry out for more. Lets continue to Green the PLanet, as we have been doing. Already the average American new car buyer needs to be in his fifties, with a lifetime of savings, before that average buyer can afford to purchase a new auto. All the auto makers know and fear the results, as mandated technologies drive up the price of autos. Lengthening auto loans have been extended to 8-10 years, and can't go out any longer; and spending home equity on car purchases, collapsed in the real estate bust of the Great Recession. Hopefully by 2017-18 or so, we can relax this mad crash program to produce ever more expensive transport, that the population increasingly cannot afford to purchase. We can resume an orderly advance in technological solutions, as the technologies mature and not produce these unsaleable technological Tour de Force demonstration vehicles, that are madly premature and under-developed.
I do not trust politicians one bit. Changing what are really Figure of Merit measures of fuel economy to another scheme, is bureacratic makework. It indirectly amounts to a major tax increase WITHOUT having to vote for a Tax increase, so it is certain to happen. Why is "pollution" only CO2? Europe even with the new EU VI standards, still allows substantial genuine toxic pollutants, much more then in America. Which by the way is preparing to tighten to make an ICE powered car indistinguishable from an EV, in genuine toxic emissions. Europe is merely matching US standards of the 1980s, which have been tightened once more since then, with another tightening following soon. North America already bio-sequesters every gram of anthropomorphic CO2 that it "creates" and the some more besides. Europe, for one who travels there fairly commonly, literally reeks of diesel stink. It is no wonder your monuments are covered in scaffolding, as they try to remove the diesel soot from building surfaces. Imagine what it is doing to your citizen's lungs. Clean up your act, rather then spending time changing meaningless Figure of Merit measures of fuel economy, as an excuse to raise taxes without having to vote for doing so.
Highly paid makework.
They moved the goalposts in 2008, to preserve and justify their jobs. Now they want to move the goalposts once again. I expect for the same reason. I did not see piles of bodies from before the 2008 tightening, due to Ozone poisoning; and don't see any now, before this tightening. Why not just Declare Victory. Use the resources to address some other concern more needful of attention.
Now we will be able to calculate wrong model programs even faster. In other words GIGO faster.
We were searching for a name which people will remember to call our new miracle coating. So we selected a new unused name. We call it 'Paint'. /sarc on
Typical UCS left wing Bovine Pasture Patties. Measure companies ignoring the breadth of product lines. Then award credit to those companies that only produce a limited model line of light cars and no trucks. I don't know whether it is a conscious desire to misinform and deceive, or the simple fact that the UCS has no one left you can use scientific principles at all, to distinguish and compare only appropriate cases of apples and oranges. I suspect that the PR flacks and lefty lawyers left there are only able to prepare pre-determined studies which satisfy the constituencies that pay them. In other words this 'study' isn't worth the paper on which it is printed.
I think that Dr. Frank Davis at UC Davis was/is a genius and only recently recognized. He is worth more than a million blowhards like Al Gore or Ed Markey or the heads of UCS or WWF. PHEV technology provides an answer to a question no longer is needing to be asked. That is: 'How could you maintain our civilizations Transportation network if Petroleum actually ran out?' Of course it isn't, and likely never will. Dr. Davis showed that a fleet of Volts could be supplied with all the liquid fuel needed by simply making it from food in no larger quantities than we presently divert to that end, even if it is a government subsidized boondoggle of enormous proportions, supported by legalized thievery and extortion of funds from the taxpaying citizenry. All forms of PHEVs are appealing to me, because they could be more efficient than our still crude ground conveyances. But the technology is still premature, redundant, and enforced by mandate before its proper time. So I welcome all advances and improvements in efficiency from all manor of hybrids from micro through strong. Electrification has its place and may provide much of our transport hub eventually, but never all of it. Portable liquid fuels provide compact energy in quantity and will be needed in mobile Tranportation for a very long time.
I really liked the Bob Lee presentation. My previous comments reflect that. But overlooked completely was Mr. Lees comments about the evolving merger of Spark Ignited and Compresiion Ignited ICEs, along with his commentary on the new FCA small ICEs. Diesels are crude in their combustion and produce voluminous particle emissions. As we move ever closer to desireable truly clean ICEs, matching the emissions of BEVs, it will be necessary for them to get much more refined and start adopting technologies from the Spark Ignition world. Our Air is now clean, without it, but cleaner is better, as it implies greater efficiency. A typical "lightweight Diesel" weighs around 500-600 pounds while larger ones in small trucks like the Cummins in RAM pickups, can routinely weigh more than half a ton. The only reason they are so heavy is that CI engines can't control knock and must be crudely 'beefier' to survive. If Mr. Lee is hinting that, what VW has dubed "DiesOtto" operation, is really drawing closer, I look forward to such engines weighing slightly more than ICE gas engines at 150-360 pounds taking almost a quarter ton or more out of a vehicles weight while obtaining the fuel economy of a diesel, augmented even more by the weight reduction. I know GM had streetable test models of HCCI engines several years ago, that the press were invited to drive. Likely this is the avenue to reach the no-longer-necessary extreme fuel economy targets, while still producing mass market viable priced vehicles. Today America consumes no more oil than it did in 1985 when the population was one third the size. With this technology we can approach 1940s levels of fuel consumption. Oil is not running out, and the supposed danger of CAGW was massively overblown. We have no real Energy problems; it will not be solved with half-baked ideas for renewables. Clean and in-exhaustible Energy in unlimited quantities, is in the offing before the first third of this Century is reached. There are multiple avenues to achieve this, but ultimately I think controlled 2HE3-based Fusion generators will answer the need by mid-century. We will have commercial DT fusion in less than 20 years. But if not, quite as soon as I think, Fission could safely serve for the interim. I have worked in this field and am convinced the time is about to arrive. PS: I am an Engineer, but have never worked in automotive industries directly. I do observe the scene though, and can detect political BS, and like Engineer-Poet, see the false concern for watermelon green, pseudo-Science distorting all the worlds technical investment.
You act as if GW was an imminent problem. Even without any serious attempt at control in East Asia there has Been... NO GLOBAL WARMING in 17 YEARS & 5MONTHS !!!!! per the satellite record. Where is the emergency that you speak of? N. A. GHG emissions are back to the levels that James Hansen warned might be dangerous exceeding in 1988, and still falling. Genuine toxic emissions are falling and the Air is clearing. You have been absorbing your own propaganda to yourselves for far too long. The World will electrify when the technology is ready, and economical. There simply no crash effort needed, nor will any be employed. Meanwhile Fission get safer, and Fusion draws ever nearer to commercial use, in the next few decades. Meanwhile vast new reserves of abiotic hydrocarbons are being found and developed, sufficient for millenia.
This all goes to show that the CAGW scare program is all but over. Hansen's 1988 call to action is and was baloney. The continued stasis in temperatures for over 17 years, confirm that the human 2-4% of CO2 emissions make little or no difference when natural CO2 emissions represent some 96-08% of CO2 emissions, and this natural level varies and the delta often exceeds by 5-10 times the entire human emissions. This harmless and very useful plant food gas is greening the planet by some 17% as the NASA satellites report. More impressive still is the genuine cleanup of genuine harmful toxic emissions. That effort which fully merited the effort expended, is just about finished with only a few counties of the 2500 or so across the USA to mop up and bring to EPA Air Quality compliance like all the others. Now the particle emissions like PM 10 and PM2.5 seem to be the subject sought by the EPA warriors seeking to justify their high paid sinecures. But deserts and dust associated with them have been with us for as long as Man has existed. There is little or no early morbidity associated with populations dwelling there, so the PM 2.5 scare is a farce soon to fail.
CARB like any bureaucracy, exists only to see that it CONTINUES to exist,and provide sinecures for its non-elected, well paid aristocracy. Chartered to clear California's polluted air, it now serves only one of two states that continues to suffer from air pollution, by the continually tightening measurements of EPA Air Quality. CARB has imposed manufacturing requirements that automakers waste billions to provide as a handful of manufactured products. Monies that could much better be spent elsewhere to accomplish more cleansing. It still has mandates for FCEVs that will cost hundreds of thousands per copy, and require an infrastructure for $ billions more, and are never going to replace working alternatives. Why do we still have two organizations, CARB and EPA, duplicating each others work? One has cleansed 48 states missing only in a couple of counties in Texas. CARB has failed in its one state. It is long past time to pension them off, and close CARB down.
All he auto amkers are improving the ICE engien. There si nohting new here. BMW hand others ahve had varaible vlave lifing for a long time, FCA's MultiAir duplicates all of thsi except for the higher compression operation. Most new designs have cooled EGR too. I await the introduction of HCCI operation that will raise the ICE efficiency to its theoretical maximum. Many of the advanced engine offerings by all the auto makers are getting awfully close tot having all the pre requiste changes and modifications needed to accomplish that HCCI operation. That semi-diesel operation, will afford the diesel's fuel economy along with the substantially reduced weight and improved cleanliness of the Otto cycle engines. The auto makers know how to provide an ICE with a ZEV toxic emission profile matching an EVs emissions, and 25% of California's cars meet it today. The auto makers even suggested it to the regulators, in lieu of unnecessary and IMO stupid CO2 emissions requirements. Only to be double-crossed and to end up with both requirements. No one knows how to modify a diesel for SULEV II cleanliness, even in the lab, never mind the street. However HCCI or a derivative, offers the best of both worlds.
Genuine progress is slow, steady and cumulative. Meanwhile many here think we have accomplished nothing, and the USA s full of polluting gas guzzling dinosaurs.
Here we have a consultant's study the unsurprisingly finds that the ideas proposed by the HH Baker funding source, are perfect. Quelle Surpris !
THe ZEV LEV II Regulations slated to go into effect are fine but duplicative of the EPA's T2B2 tightening. CARB has not succeeeded, yet. If it went out of business tommorow the Air would continue to get cleaner, as older more polluting cars are replaced. You seem to be an EV proponent, as am I, but only when EV technology is ready economically as well. In any case, the ICE actually will do a better job of cleanup under the ZEV mandate (LEV III) for all, as they actually clean the Air as they operate, while EVs do not.
Once again the Politicians have no perspective. I fail to see what all the urgency is. Why must this be pursued on a Crash basis? The USA uses less fuel than it did in he 1990s; and emits less CO2 as well. In Fact the USA has met the targets for Kyoto and even reached the targets for Dr. Hansen's Cassandra warnings, thus accomplishing all the CAGW Cassandras wished. Simply Declare Victory and Quit. It's not like Oil is in any danger of running out. The Peakist nonsense is dead. The abiotic origins of hydrocarbons is becoming the current favored theory among geologists, which also answers the question of why other planets have such huge supplies of hydrocarbons. It also indicates that hydrocarbons are potentially much more common than thought, when the only source was thought to be fossil life.
Roger, I think you have specified the best range extender in the Fiat TwinAir 2 cylinder sub 1.0 liter engine.
There will be little inconvenience, if you can't recharge you BEV because the wind was too low, or it was too cloudy. So simply don't go to work tomorrow and maybe the next day, until the wind blows enough or the sun shines, to provide the energy to recharge your BEV. That is an easy fix for intermittent wind and solar power. Sure Harvey. It's easy. No Problemo...
It amazes me how little science or engineering or even common sense, exists on this blog. You cannot come out ahead by oxidizing carbon, then un-oxidizing it to return to the state previous i.e fuel. A little Law of Thermodynamics called Entropy interferes. Perhaps you have heard that it is more than difficult, rather it is impossible, to build perpetual motion machines? All these efforts constitute un-economic efforts in which you have to add energy, that costs money, to do the process. That will ALWAYS be the case, although there may be political reasons that may seem to neccesitate doing that subsidy.
Thamk you for your commentary. For those who believe with out CARB we would backslide into Chinese pollution, I would say that you must think think the EPA is useless. Fine! Do away with that redundant organization instead. But then who would prevent backsliding in the other 49 states, if not the EPA. You enviros (or perhaps CARBite employees?) forget that the other 48 states, minus CA and Texas, already meet the AIR Quality measures of the EPA, (which are the same as CARB), while Texas and California, in particular, governed by the CARB, do not. So on that objective basis, who has done the better job of regulation? Bureaucratic Redundancy is the issue, not deregulation of Clean Air.
Methods to refine the CI engine's fuel burning have long been primitive, but the times are changing. Shaping and controlling CI ignition and burning rate, will allow the cleanup of toxic emissions at the source. That will allow less intrusive, and expensive, cleanup technologies, downstream. As this technology advances engineers are approaching the benefits of the theoretical HCCI operation, from both the SI, gasoline, and CI, diesel, spectrums. New Diesels engine designs can shrink in weight by almost half, from 500-1000 to 300-500 lbs; and thermal efficiencies of SI engines to rise by 33-50 per cent.
As an Engineer, it has never made sense to me to try to convert masses of vehicles to gaseous operation. It intrinsically, seems simpler and easier, to merely convert gaseous hydrocarbons to liquid fuels. Providing that the energy cost of doing so is not prohibitive, and that the process scales. This may be the process technology that accomplishes the qualifications.
With the adoption of LEV III emissioin regulation when LEVIII is implemented post 2017, ther is no logical reason to continue the CARB, After all what could be cleaner than to require all vehicles to have ZERO emissions, the same as a pure EV, as the LEV III spec does? CARB bureaucrats are offering a change of mission to justify their continued existence and salaries, for post LEV III becoming a GHG agency in 2025. It won't wash. With the completion of the effort to cleanse our AIR there is no need for multiple enforcement agencies. (There is none even now.) The EPA can undertake the small mission to see that the adopted regulations will continue, to ensure no backsliding. Bye Bye CARBite idiots. OTOH there is nothing more permanent that mankind can create, than a government bureaucracy, long after the missions for which it was created no longer exists. Sorry about that, the political drones will probably keep it alive. Long before the 2025 time frame the CARB will have a face down from the auto makers, their dealers, and the auto buying public bring unable to get their cars serviced, over the CARB' arbitrary requirements for automakers to manufacture certain rising quantities of EVs, and FCEVs. I suspect that the CAGW/GHG scare will have run its course, joined Acid rain, Alar, Y2K, and assorted other theoretical scares on the dung heap of History. The effect is turning out to be at most, infinitesimal; and of little concern. Id's advise the CARB to select another horse to ride in its quest to keep drawing paychecks, but these fools have never been noted for their perspicacity.