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Dan Browne
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SJC: I suspect you don't get the irony of your words. "They are going to be living with that decision for years". *CLEARLY* you vastly underestimate the risks to the economy imposed by the moronic choices made en-masse by American consumers in insisting on driving huge, heavy low gas mileage vehicles. But Americans will learn the hard way as they always do. My guess is around the end of march to the end of august is when they will learn.
First of all we don't need to replace the ENTIRE FLEET with EVs to outrun peak oil. All we need to do is replace the percentage of the fleet that would be lost due to price increases which would be what? 5% per year? 10%? Who knows, but nowhere near 100%. Secondly, we don't need to even replace all of that with EVs, some people can take mass transit, others can take the bus, others can buy more fuel efficient European smaller cars etc etc. But lets focus purely on EVs for the moment: They are too expensive and the range is limited, right? Well 80% of all journeys in the most extremely car dependent nation on Earth (the USA) are less than 30 miles round trip. 90% of all journeys are less than 100 miles round trip and 95% of all journeys in the same nation are less than 300 miles. The average range of the current crop of EVs on the market is around 120 miles per trip. That covers 90% of all possible journeys. For the remaining 10% of journeys alternatives still exist. And about price? Well let's look at a pure EV such as the Nissan Leaf. It covers 90% of all journeys but the cost is what, $30K? Well sure that's higher than the cheapest ICE based vehicle but again we're looking at the wrong number. The cost of this vehicle is not $30K in a large chunk to most people, it's a monthly payment. So it's $600 a month on an expensive 4 year lease as compared to $300 a month on a cheap 4 year lease. So allow simply make an 8 year lease for EVs. The total cost is still double but the monthly cost becomes more bearable. There are solutions people if you get your heads out of the current mindset and start thinking outside the box.
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Nov 23, 2011