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Speculations about "what might have happened" are exercises that serve a variety of purposes from constructing theories to punishing wrongdoers. But in the end they are all speculations.
You Wouldn't Even Be Here If...
Consider This Conjecture Over the years I have addressed the notion that human beings are equivalent to cancer in the Ecos because we are busily grabbing up every resource in sight and destroying the tissues of the Ecos, the various ecosystems of the planet. In several venues I have argued that...
The life forms affected by the environmental degradation and ecosystem disruption do not vote, make campaign contributions, sit on boards of directors and in legislative bodies, or have other such levers of political power within their reach. A very few have found themselves useful to humans. If success is measured in numbers, feedlot cattle, monoculture corn wheat and soy, factory-farmed chickens and the like might be counted among the successful, but only as long as humans can subsidise them.
Dissolving Sea Snails!
This story speaks for itself, so I will keep my commentary to a minimum. This text is from Science Daily's First Evidence of Ocean Acidification Affecting Live Marine Creatures in the Southern Ocean. The shells of marine snails — known as pteropods — living in the seas around Antarctica are b...
The folks at the conference may not have to worry too much for too long:
Charting Mankind’s Arctic Methane Emission Exponential Expressway to Total Extinction in the Next 50 Years.
Doha - Going Through the Motions
The lips will be moving starting tomorrow at the climate talks in Doha, Qatar. There will be actual words spoken. But it is really just a ruse. Anybody with half a brain who thinks about CO2 emissions and climate change knows something for absolute certain. Nothing short of massive reductions in...
Does it even matter whether or not there is an election?
What Can the Next President Do?
Regardless of Who Wins As I write it looks like Obama will get a second term and a second chance to do the right things. But the reality (as I see it) for this race is the tragicomedy that neither candidate is promising to do anything that would actually work. For one thing, given the politic...
Dr. Mobus, are you preaching to the choir, crying in the wilderness, or hoping to convert some passerby? Or perhaps all three? Nevertheless, thank you for speaking out.
if (length(day) == length(night)) HappyEquinox();
Another inflection point in the year. Now we are diving into the predominance of cold and darkness. And I am talking about the political season not just the autumnal season. I really don't have anything more to say about the state of politics in the US than I've already said. It is still a sp...
The problem, of course, is the packaging. Where I learnt algebra, I never heard of "quadratic" equations, but I know now that some of what I learned goes by that name here. The cut-and-dried way it is presented here takes all the life out of mathematics. The Arabs called algebra Hisaab al Jabr, meaning the powerful computation, but it is endowed with its power only by the motivation of the person using it.
Is This a Radical Idea, or What?
How to Teach Math — Abolish Math Courses! A Sunday (July 29) New York Times opinion piece started me thinking about something I have often wondered about. Why are so many college students turned off on mathematics? The article's title was provocative: "Is Algebra Necessary?" The author, Andrew ...
Even the "unification theory" exists within conscious awareness.
Watching the Political System (er, Circus)
What Happened to the Political System? As I write this it is very hard to juxtapose those two words — political and system. What we are observing today is, at best, a broken system. It is a moribund system. All organization is in tatters. It is failing miserably to perform its historical functio...
Thank you, Dr. Mobus, for so assiduously turning over the humanure. But a wise person had once advised me that it is sometimes better to leave the bucket undisturbed: the more you stir it, the more it stinks.
The paradigm shift out of "growth" will not come easy. As Francis Bacon said about greatness, some will be born into it, some will attain it through their achievements, and upon some - the rest, the multitude - it will be thrust. Sink or swim.
Watching the Political System (er, Circus)
What Happened to the Political System? As I write this it is very hard to juxtapose those two words — political and system. What we are observing today is, at best, a broken system. It is a moribund system. All organization is in tatters. It is failing miserably to perform its historical functio...
Since Plasmodia had a dinoflagellate ancestor, would it be appropriate to consider making the desired antigens in a dinoflagellate? Maybe even consider combining the two genomes if it simplifies further steps?
Fishing With Algae For Malaria Vaccines
by James Gregory An algae farm—a potential site of vaccine production. Source. Malaria is a big killer and a major worldwide health concern. The number of malaria-related deaths has fallen to approximately 650,000 in 2010, from well over 1 million just ten years ago, thanks to the World H...
Perception (of the world) is subordinate to awareness; awareness is an object within consciousness; consciousness is subjective ("I"). What is beyond is not in the realm of the "I".
What is the Universe Up To?
In looking back over some of my earliest blog posts it is clear that my thinking has evolved a great deal. By way of a little history, back in 2006 and 2007 I taught a course in our Global Honors program called Global Challenges. I got this assignment because the then director knew I had done s...
Life emerged and evolved to produce consciousness.
The non-theistic religions, Buddhism, Jainism and non-dual Vedantic Hinduism assign primacy to consciousness: for each individual being, it is where awareness of perceptions begins and where all concepts are conceived. It is the sine qua non for everything else.
What is the Universe Up To?
In looking back over some of my earliest blog posts it is clear that my thinking has evolved a great deal. By way of a little history, back in 2006 and 2007 I taught a course in our Global Honors program called Global Challenges. I got this assignment because the then director knew I had done s...
Education of a Scientist
Update and a Good Link
As promised I've been sparse in posting, but it is because there is so much going on in the systems science arena. Today I will be submitting an article dealing with the framing of sustainability by the principles of systems science to a journal. I will write a summary of it one day. Can't post ...
When the economists say "economy" they are referring to the process of conversion of (natural) resources into (usable) products, a process that is predicated (mostly unbeknownst to them) on energy flows. When they speak of economic "growth" (again, mostly unbeknownst to them) this translates into an acceleration of the process of conversion of resources into products.
And when they say “The economy that we had before the recession is gone,” what they are referring to with the term "economy" (yet again, mostly unbeknownst to them) translates into that acceleration.
The economy is not gone - not by a long shot. Both the primary economy, the natural resources, and the secondary economy, the usable products still exist. However the cumulative effects of the depredations wrought upon the primary economy since the adoption of agriculture, and magnified untold orders of magnitude since the adoption of fossil fuels (which happens to be another natural resource!) are now having increasingly severe consequences.
It is also to be remembered that the process is linear from resource to product to wastes & trash. Biological ecosystems are sustained by cycles: the wastes at one point are the resources for the next point forming closed loops. With human activities, even renewable resources are depleted faster than their replenishment rates; even the so-called "renewable" energy sources require capture devices made from, and maintained with, non-renewable resources.
The depleting fossil fuels and the shrinking of the energy streams contingent upon them, exacerbated by the depletion of most other natural resources, mandates not just a loss of the acceleration of the conversion process of resource to product, but an inevitable deceleration of the same.
To economists, all this is represented by symbols: pieces of green paper bearing pictures of dead presidents, magnetized particles on hard drives, etc. This is the tertiary economy, where those limits do not apply in the creation of more symbols.
When will truth dawn on economists?
First read this article posted on HuffingtonPost.com regarding the bleak outlook for the future economy. From the article: “The economy that we had before the recession is gone,” said Kenneth Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board. “It's not coming back.” The U.S. economy is transition...
One may recognize the disconnect between the "politician" and the "state". The "state" is an oversized organizational chart personified. There is no such thing as Country X, but its organizational chart specifies and defines the location and status of everyone in the hierarchy. When the politician makes a promise, much of the responsibility devolves on the personified chart. This is particularly true for promises that are to come to fruition after the politician's term(s) in office.
This adds to the surreality of the circumstances where diving into deNile with ignorance of or blindness towards the approaching crocodile of reality.
Am I Living in a Nightmare?
My dreams contain more rationality and even my nightmares are not as frightful as what I observe when I am awake. The State of the Union Address and the Republican rejoinder afterward underscored this living nightmare reality. The talking-head commentaries afterward confirmed the madness. I h...
Can a universe emerge without mind?
The "mind" is a phenomenon within the universe: it is manifest in three parts, the knower, the knowing and the knowledge. The knower is identified as the "I". The rest - including the known - the universe - are the "not-I". The source of both the "I" and the "not-I" is The One without a second, also referred to as Sunyata (Buddhism) and the Ain Sof (Kabbalistic Judaism), both of which mean "The Void". As in the case of the origins of the Big Bang, it is outside the parameters OS time and space.
The Path: Episode II (and Some Surprises)
A Series Index Setting the framework for a journey into the future, having a sense of what the destination could be: How Might Humanity Survive a Radically Changing World? The Goal — Episode I: The Basic Requirements The Goal — Episode II: Support for Security Needs The Goal — Episode III: Fu...
There is no need to jump the sharks, they are swimming with them: and the sharks have them in their jaws.
K Street Documentary: The Best Government Money Can Buy?
How is the United States Government (and the Culture) Like "The Fonz"?
They Both “Jumped the Shark” From the Wikipedia article on the TV show “Happy Days”: "Jumping the shark" The term “jumping the shark” arose from a fifth season episode that aired on September 20, 1977. Fonzie (clad in swim trunks and leather jacket) jumps over a shark on waterskis. “Jumping the...
Thank you, Dr. Mobus, for a perceptive and comprehensive analysis of humanity's current predicament, and its hope for the future.
Sapient Governance Depends on Sapient Brains Possessed by the Governed!
The Trouble with Complex Adaptive Systems Complexity in the natural world has always emerged via the process of evolution which is a massive, parallel search process that explores “design space” through trial and error and, because of the massiveness of the search mechanisms can afford to make ...
Taking it to the bank could be less than a prudent choice.
What is the Solution to All Problems?
Evolution This is not a facetious question. Nor a vacuous answer. I am quite serious when I say that I believe universal evolution is now and has always been the way the Universe solves problems. Let me lay out my arguments. To begin I suppose I should say what characterizes the nature of a...
Your insights are worthy of a Cohen Gadol.
Learning From The Aquacalypse
This is part III in a series of articles on human-caused destruction of life in the oceans. I combined parts III and a planned part IV, so this will be the last post in this series. Part I, called Peak Fish And The Age Of Slime, was published June 12, 2011. Part II, called The International Cons...
The Japs were still hemming and hawing about negotiations for surrender rather than an accepting an unconditional one. If the American commanders did not mind the loss of a few more American lives in a few more weeks, that was their attitude.
But as far as I am concerned, if I were charged with the safety and well-being of troops, every individual among them takes priority over the adversary and the source of the adversary's support.
Remembrance of Human Lacking
August 6, 1945 My birthday is a constant reminder to me of what is missing in human nature. I would ask readers to take time to remember what this day means. I am not talking about remembering the victims of Hiroshima on this date 65 years ago. I am asking that you remember what that act mean...
Well before the oil price spike of 2008, Richard Duncan of the "Olduvai Theory" had suggested a period of severe volatility in oil prices with repeated spikes and crashes. Indeed it was not until after the 2008 oil price spike that the peak oil blogosphere more widely addressed the issue of elevated petroleum prices depressing the economy. As I understand it, the most that the uS economy can tolerate without heading south is a price of $85 per barrel.
More Modeling in Biophysical Economics
Rather than reproduce the whole post here on QE, I will just point readers to a new piece I wrote as a guest poster that has been published on The Oil Drum, Peak Oil: How Supply Crunch Can Lead to Lower Prices (for a while!). It was also picked up at The Energy Bulletin. This is a paper which...
An educated person, it had been said, "is one who knows a little of everything, and everything of a little". That makes education a journey, not a goal: a lifelong endavour.
And again, as a Chinese saynig from a long time ago says:
For a return on investment in one year, plant rice. For a return on investment in ten years, plant fruit trees. For a return on investment in a hundred years, educate people.
I am reminded of the terminology used, appropriately, although perhaps without full awareness of the implications: surgical training, and medical education.
There is a distinction between education and training. Training can be quite sophisticated, depending on the complexity of the skills being imparted. It can (and these days often does) masquerade as education.
Teaching Students About the Coming Crises
What We Are Currently Teaching Education is in a difficult position, and most educators don't yet realize it. The world as we have known it ever since humans started keeping records has been one where there was always newer sources of higher power energy discovered and exploited. To be sure, ...
Lest we forget, at one time in these united States the "country doc" in addition to his "black bag" had assorted medications a box of surgical instruments in his buggy. The instruments would be sterilized by boiling in any convenient container in the patient's home and anesthesia would be provided by any bystander dripping chloroform or ether onto a gauze mask under the direction of the doctor. (I have heard stories passed down - third or fourth hand - of how to adjust the depth of anesthesia by the number of drops per minute).
While this was nowhere close to today's situation in efficiency and desirability, it was a vast improvement over what preceded it for all of history.
Much of materia medica preceding sulfaniliamide was based on fairly sound principles: it was ditched with the coming of modern pharmaceuticals. Even so, a lot of modern pharmaceuticals have their origins in more "primitive" materia medica.
Morphine and heroin are from the opium poppy (one good aspect of our Afghan involvement is the resumption of the cultivation of that plant, a capitalist endeavour - the Taliban being religious fundamentalists had essentially stopped poppy cultivation). Incidentally, the opium poppy is a variant of the regular poppy and produces larger quantities of the desired substances than the regular poppy.
Sulfanilamide came because Ehrlich thought that the differential uptake of stains by bacteria would be a way to find a toxic dye that would bind preferentially to bacteria, sparing the host cells. The aniline blue dye came from a plant in India and was imported by the British: when the actual molecule was identified and synthesized. its modification made a variety of different dyes possible. Experimentation with various side chains led to a molecule that was found to be bactericidal; it was then recognized that the bactericidal property resided in the side chain alone, leading to the sulfonamides.
Quinine for malaria came from a plant used by South American Indians to treat fever, muscle relaxants used in anesthesia "neuromuscular blocking agents" came from a plant used for arrow poison, digitalis used in heart conditions from the purple foxglove Digitalis purpurea, penicillin and streptomycin from molds, bacitracin from a bacterium, etc.
The loss of biodiversity may entail the disappearance of species that might have thus proved useful, and of cultures that may have pointed out similar useful knowledge.
A lot of work needs to be done to find, categorize and publish data on low-tech remedies while also preserving the knowledge acquired in the industrial era, and finding low-tech ways to apply it. But little of it will be forthcoming in the current cutthroat for-profit, globalization environment. This environment evolved as the big players were able to afford the massive expenses of research and clinical trials, shutting out lesser players. Even some reliable medications have been abandoned in the promotion of new items under patent in pursuit of the economic incentive.
With Lots of Time to Ponder
Some Random Thoughts About the World As I Sit the Summer Out! I've had some time to catch up on the news, blogs, etc. over the last few days. I'm still a little weak from surgery and meds, but have managed to cut the latter to just what I need to get to sleep. So, starting to get fidgety I thou...
Terrible thing. Hope no knee involvement - which often does not quite return to normal. Even the distal tibia - the slowest healing fracture in the body - is a better prospect in the long term. Get well as fast as possible.
Be careful while hiking in the woods!
This is just a short note to let regular readers know that I may be out of the loop for a few more days. Last Saturday I took a nasty spill while hiking down one of the trails on the north side of Mt. Adams. And I broke my right lower leg! My wife had to carefully race down to the nearest town to...
The mind is an epiphenomenon: it is to the "I" as a shirt, pants or shoes - or for that matter an arm or a leg.
Little truths like little waves shimmer and glitter on the surface: great truths, like the great ocean deep, are dark and silent.
Human Consciousness and Sapience
Second Order Consciousness, Sapience, and Wisdom George Mobus [Longish!] On and off I have played around with the nature of human consciousness and its relationship with sapience as I have been developing it. Specifically in the working paper "The Components of Sapience", in a section titled "...
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