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HarveyD
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This latest DOE analysis (study) is as good as any other similar study concerning the relative evolution of BEVs and FCEVs. Another real question is how quickly will both technology develop (all weather performance and cost wise) in the next 22 years? No doubt that sometime between 2030 and 2040, something close to affordable 5X ultra quick charge batteries, will be mass produced, making 150+ KW packs for all weather extended BEVs a reality. However, the high cost of the required battery pack (150 x $165 = $24,750) may raise the cost of all weather extended range BEVs over the cost of equivalent range FCEVs?. Secondly, ultra quick charging facilities, will require new much more costly facilities, to match the 5 minutes required for FCEVs. Such ultra quick charge facilities may cost even more than the average H2 distribution facilities. To make FCEVs more competitive, the cost of H2 will have to drop as low as $2/Kg. This could happen by 2025-2030 or so. The performance and cost of FCs will easily match equivalent battery packs by 2030 or so. Combo, batteries + FCs may be the best solution, for short and long range vehicles.
This could become another way for much lower cost, higher performance, longer lasting FCs. Coupled with lower cost ($2/Kg) H2, near future all weather extended range FCEVs, will quickly become competitive with BEVs counterpart.
This study confirms that FCEVs will soon be competitive with BEVs, specially for all weather, extended range, larger vehicles. A real breakthrough on 10X, much lower cost, higher performance future mass produced SS batteries could improve the competiveness of extended range 150+ KW BEVs?
Going form 1X to 10X lithium?? or SS batteries is a very slow and a very long path. Yearly improvement seems to be somewhere between 5% and 8%. Based on established improvement rates, it could take another 10 to 20+ years to go from current 2X to 5X units and another 20+ years to go from 5X to 10X? Multiple breakthroughs are announced every month but none really make to the mass production lines. The overall FCs effectiveness + efficiency, improved power to weight ratio, improved longer life, lower price per KW, and much lower H2 price have (all) made inroads in the last 10 years. Initial and operational cost will soon match new ultra quick charge batteries. FCs will eventually supply electric energy for many e-cars, e-SUVs, e-Pick-ups, e-buses, e-trucks, e-trains, e-ships, e-drones, e-planes, emergency power units and to regulate power grids.
Two minor problems: 1) Enevate fast-charging batteries are NOT (yet) in use in any mass produced BEVs. 2) No mass produced BEVs are (yet) equipped to use none existing in motion charging facilities nor beamed microwaves. How can one compare high performance FCEVs with none existing BEVs with similar capabilities?
It is unfair to compare (1) all weather, long range, quick refill FCEVs with (2) good weather, short range, slow charge BEVs. For about half the price of a low charge TESLA Model S100D you can drive a very quick charge, all weather, extended range FCEV?
Larger green hydrogen production facilities could reduce production cost below facilities using higher price NG, specially in areas where surplus/excess REs exist. Eventually, smaller H2 production facilities, operating outside peak demand hours, could produce H2 at much lower cost while maximizing the use/efficiency of REs. With more residences, commercial facilities and farms being equipped with their own clean energy supplies; Quebec Hydro, local NG and heating oil suppliers, are already feeling demands reduction. For the fist time, many Hydro facilities had to reduce production and dump excess water. The construction of major new hydro facilities is being delayed, at least till the arrival of many more electric vehicles.
Equipped with new 2.5X SS batteries (for extended range and ultra quick charge) and fully automated drive, those e-Palette cubes could quickly replace many private vehicles and current large ICE diesel buses. This improved customer service would greatly reduce noise/air pollution in city cores and GHGs.
If they can be mass produced at an affordable price, those new SS batteries may become THE solution for all current short range very slow charge BEVs. Appropriate ultra quick charge facilities should/will have to be developed to take full advantage of those new batteries. Current 400-450 KW facilities will have to be improved.
A hand to Hyundai for the many valuable improvements over previous FCEV model. The 600 Km range is remarkable. Will that extended range be available/possible in all weather conditions? The battery/FC combination is a wise solution for short and long trips. With near future H2 at around $2.00/Kg, FCEVs will quickly become very competitive to operate, specially in cold snowy areas. Others (even Toyota) will have to catch up.
A smart looking e-SUV, upgradable to Level 5 Automated Drive, with enough displays/monitors to satisfy most users and to compete with similar units from Asia, EU and USA. Larger battery pack may be required for acceptable all weather extended range? It will probably come with near future next generation batteries by 2020/2022 or so.
The arrival of lower cost Chinese built vehicles (ICEVs/HEVs/PHEVs/BEVs/FCEVs) in USA/Canada, will force local producers (including TESLA) to find ways to produce more competitively priced vehicles?
This could be a major step towards Level 5 ADVs and autonomous robo-taxis, automated e-minibuses and e-buses? Hope that many such vehicles will be available in 2020 and behond?
How does this compare with TESLA during the same period?
It seems that FCEVs can operate with less energy lost (more efficiently) in very cold weather (down to -30C) and can supply more free heat for driver and passengers and more range between refills.
Good news for more availability of locally built various size e-buses. Hope that municipalities and operators will jump on the opportunity to purchase more of those locally built units.
This could be another step in reducing cost and increasing performance of FCs and FCEVs?
At $2/Kg, long range all weather FCEVs (using H2) will compete with most BEVs and more so against ICEVs, specially when cost of pollution is fully considered.
At that rate, TESLA will remain/become a minor EV producer. Many EV producers in Asia and EU may produce more than TESLA in 2018/2020.
In the real world, average fuel economy in USA is probably closer to 20 mpg than the reported 25 mpg. Real progress in the last 10 years or so has been close to zero. Most (all) potential fuel consumption reduction is offset by users driving heavier more fuel hungry vehicles. Basically, for 99% of users; have more $$$ = driving heavier gas guzzling vehicles to compete with the neighbours.
It is amazing how quickly Hyundai is progressing with electrified (EVs and FCEVs) ADVs and this JV will further advance it's leadership? Wise to concentrate on their excellent all weather extended range FCEVs to test their near future ADV equipment and technologies. With a few more local H2 stations being built, an Hyundai FCEV/ADV could be one of our future purchase.
Lower cost, higher performance, long lasting, very quick charge batteries are a must for affordable all weather 400+ miles range BEVs. Hope that Nexeon will succeed where many others have failed.
Interesting to note that Chinese $$$ is progressively replacing USA Investments in major vehicle manufacturers. Next may be Chrysler-Fiat and GM?