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One more step towards 5X and 10X future batteries?
Toyota, the real grandfather of mass produce HEVs, may very well become the grandfather of mass produced FCEVs and clean H2 stations?
The availability of compact, higher power (250 to 300 KW) lower cost batteries and/or FCs were and is still the main problem. Lighter weight fiber bodies will help with smaller batteries/FCs but not with higher cost for another 10 to 20 years. There will be an extra price to pay for quieter, cleaner school electrified buses. Many runs will have to be modified/expanded to match the per student transportation cost to steel/diesel units.
Good interim solution? Montreal QC is doing the same with 300 new Hybrid buses (probably from Volvo Canada), as a gap filler measure, while electric units are being tested and redesigned and tested again..... for another 4 years or so?
Lion School e-bus has built close to 150 similar units locally, (in Saint-Jérome, QC) with equivalent range, using light carbon fiber bodies. Those units are recharged twice a day (after each daily run) and are used in many municipalities North of Montreal. Initial cost is much higher than equivalent steel/diesel units and larger subsidies are required.
Lower cost clean H2 is a matter of resources available and used to find the best ways to do it. Fresh and filtered sea water is plentiful and free. REs are getting cheaper almost every day. Very low cost Off peak demand clean e-energy will soon be available to operate updated more efficient electrolysers to produce large quantities of clean H2?
Lower cost PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs should get more subsidies (equivalent to the initial cost of (most or all) on board batteries and/or FCs) to favour larger batteries/FCs and reduce the use of ICEVs. Of course, luxury, costly electrified vehicles do not and should not get subsidies.
Hydrogen may soon find its way into worldwide energy usage/solutions. Better, lower cost ways will be developed to produce/store large quantities of Hydrogen and efficient low cost fuel cells for industrial /commercial/private usages. Fresh and filtered sea/ocean water will be recycled into limitless clean lower cost H2. FCs will recycle it back to water.
Everybody want to go from heavy, slow charge, costly 2X batteries to much lighter, ultra quick charge, low cost 5X to 10X batteries for future competitive all weather extended range BEVs and home/industrial storage units. Between wants and reality, many years (decades) of research may be required. At the current rate (5% to 8%/year) it may take20 to 30 years for better batteries and ultra quick charge facilities. Meanwhile, current FCEVs could quickly be updated to fill requirements. Clean H2 stations network will be costly but is doable.
Consumption increase in China and India will/may more than offset reductions in EU and USA. Coupled with increased use of cheap coal, environment will/may not be able to cope with associated increase in pollution and GHGs?
VW, BMW and Mercedes have t he resources and technical skill required to catch up fast with electrified vehicles. The race to the first affordable, ultra quick charge (less than 10 minutes) all weather extended range (over 600 Km) automated drive EV is interesting.
This may be the best way to go to accelerate the construction of 160+ new H2 stations in Japan to support the sales of more FCEVs of all sizes. The same groups could join their efforts and resources to manufacture lower cost more efficient AWD, all weather, extended range, automated Drive FCEVs (of many shapes and sizes) in the near future.
This is getting closer to an AWD, all weather, extended range ADV BEV?Hope that it will be relatively affordable (around $40K to$45K USD). If so, the TESLA Model 3 will have serious competition?
If average EVs efficiency is around 40%, with current USA's e-energy production mix and PHEVs are around 36%, Americans do not have much to gain with BEVs over PHEVs? Of course, it all depends on average distance travelled on electricity with PHEVs. Many extended all weather range PHEVs cost less than equivalent all weather range BEVs and/or equivalent range FCEVs.
In late 2017, China's electrified vehicle sales, were over 50% of the whole world total and rising? Can China keep it up?
Affordable, all weather, ultra quick charge, extended range (500 to 800 Km) electrified vehicles may not be available for another 15 years or so because: 1. new, lower cost, ultra light weight, energy capturing bodies are required. 2. ultra light weight more efficient, lower cost batteries and/or FCs are required. 3. new AW direct drive, lower cost, e-trains are required . 4. new much lighter, more efficient, lower cost e-accessories are required. Tata Motors of India with their Chinese partners may be able to produce such vehicles by 2030+
This will be a duplication of a project being carried out in Germany. Of course, Hydrogen Rails could be used in USA and Canada (where very few Electric Rails exist) to replace current polluting diesel-electric units. The new H2 stations required could easily be coupled with H2 station network required by H2 trucks and cars to lower H2 price and to improve total efficiency.
China and India, with a total population approaching 3 billion, could develop and mass produce lower cost, lighter, near future, more efficient electrified vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs including batteries, e-motors, FCs, electrolysers and compressors) for the local and export markets by 2025 or so? Such joint effort could be one of the best way to greatly and progressively reduce current pollution and GHGs while producing a lasting economic boom for the area. A limited ''Free Trade'' agreement may be required to maintain fair trading practices.
HEVs and PHEVs and the environment will benefit from higher performance power trains for at least another 15 to 30 years? Many Toyota's near future HEVs will do 60+ mpg and many Toyota future PHEVs will do up to 120 empg, depending on battery pack size and weight?
Lower cost, higher performance batteries for future BEVs with the same performance, range and refill/charging time as current ICEVs may NOT be around much before 2030/2035 or so? However, affordable FCEVs can do it NOW?
Thousands of Light diesel/gasoline city delivery Trucks could be replaced with cost effective short range e-trucks now and more so with lower cost more effective batteries in about 5 years. Could be an important step to reduce city core pollution and GHGs.
It is the right time for Oil & Gas Majors to get seriously involved in battery R&D and mas Production and ultra quick charge facilities to progressively replace current fossil fuel stations?
Adjacent countries will fight for years for Oil & Gas in the South China Sea? China, with its fast growing economics and very large population , may be the natural winner?
Sooner or latter (2030+?) affordable, ultra quick charge, SS 5+X (1000+ mWh/Kg) batteries, will be mass produced for lower cost , all weather extended range BEVs. Meanwhile, slow charge, short range BEVs (for city use) and extended range PHEVs will be offered by 20+ major manufacturers. A few extended all weather range BEVs will be offered at over $100K each.
Since H2 refills are up to 20 times faster than for EVs, a lot less H2 stations are required?