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Dwight Cramer
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I'd offer three thoughts on your note. 1. The 'developed world' is a construction with some validity, but I'm not sure about it's continued viablility. The very idea that the rest of the world would 'converge' on the results of the most it prosperous subgroup group is problematic. Anyway, the developed world was a 20th century outcome of the godawful transformations of the first half of the 20th century and represented a historical segue from the old metropolitan states of the 19th century European empires. I'm not sure what the future will bring, or even how relative prosperity should be measured (per capita is not a foregone conclusion). Nor is the continued existence of a subset of developed nations. 2. On a policy point. I wonder if the creation of reliable demand (preferably in domestic markets) is not more important that best practices assimilation of foreign technology. The old fashioned approach to that was autarchy, I suppose the modern version would be the creation of modest American style saftey net to remove the need for astonomical savings rates (though the Americans appear to be unraveling theirs for whatever reason). So, in Latin America, for instance, the imposition of a minimum wage for domestic servants results in a somewhat more prosperous lower class and sales of a lot more washers, dryers, dishwashers, etc. into middle class househbolds. 3.The problem with the developed/developing world dichtomy is a bit like the ones between lawyers and laymen or Jews and gentiles. It may mean something to be a lawyer or a Jew, but the terms 'layman' and 'gentile' cover a world of differences. InLatin America alone, consdier how differnt the situations are in Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil, all of which appear at least to be on vectors, much less Peru and Columbia, which are at actual points of inflection. Believe it or not, after all that criticism, I really like you stuff.
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Jul 31, 2011