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AmbiValent
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Chris, I think SH was not arguing that an ice-free September wouldn't come soon, but that an ice-free March would rather take decades than years.
Toggle Commented Mar 8, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Is it just me, or is this winter's not-freezing (or melting, or cracking) ignoring the peripheral seas (that will melt anyway) and going straight towards the central arctic via Fram and Bering?
Toggle Commented Mar 8, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
This winter's sea ice area maximum seems to have stayed below the minimal winter maximum so far. Also, the areas where the ice is "under attack" seem to be not just the periphery but rather the ice in the Svalbard and Bering areas. Or am I misreading this, and this situation is more common than I think and doesn't point to a new minimum in September?
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
It's a rather amateurish interpretation. I just thought that Beaufort and Chukchi were the areas where the ice broke apart in winter and froze together again (with the interim open water contributing to areas with thin ice cover). And ice would have only compacted if pushed against land, be it islands or the coast (or the MYI, which leans against Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago), and the yellow areas seem not too far away from those areas now (months after the supposed formation). But I'm curious about what the experts will say.
Toggle Commented Jul 5, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
So the orange areas are the MYI remnants, the yellow ones are compacted FYI, and the rest is more or less rotten ice?
Toggle Commented Jul 5, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
I think 2.8 for PIOMAS minimum. Extent and area are much less certain, since there will be likely a lot of thin ice at minimum which could also melt. But I'll make a blind guess at 2.8 mio km^2 extent.
At first glance, the area and extent numbers don't look bad. Unfortunately, all the other news and images more than makes up for that. And it's only the beginning of melt season... o/~ My feelings can't reach you, Our bonds being torn apart The clouds drift away regardlessly on a Grey Wednesday Now, remember the spectacular past When everything was bright, when you fell in love Now, remember the time we loved each other When we stared into each other's eyes Now, remember the spectacular past When you lived for a dream, when you loved each other o/~
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2013 on Looking for winter weirdness 6 at Arctic Sea Ice
More rain doesn't automatically mean more farmland. There are several stages in between until the ground would be fit for farming. If you want to speed that up, maybe the best fitting word for what is needed is not just "irrigation" but rather "terraforming".
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2013 on The bunny explains at Arctic Sea Ice
And as Wipneus shows, for 2013 zero is within the error range for the volume minimum... (although it takes 2 or 3 more years for zero to become likely)
Toggle Commented Dec 12, 2012 on PIOMAS December 2012 at Arctic Sea Ice
I think certain people just don't want to listen. You will probably have the best chance to get to some of them if they're not from fossil-fuel-rich regions and tell them temperatures are going up, and it's best if they start developing green technology because in the future everyone will want them, and they'd get lots of jobs if they've got the best green technology. If you like this petition, sign it and spread the word: http://wh.gov/Xg5R (Does not contain secession!)
Espen, it looks a bit like a man with wings... Icarus flew too close too the sun and his wings melted, so he fell to his death...
@21:54 Translation: Black Swan: an anomaly, followed by a return to the old normal. Dragon King: may look like an anomaly at first, but is a paradigm change, a switch to a new normal.
Exponential and gompertz curves barely differed at all for the past, only really diverging in 2011. So R^2 values would naturally be close as well. I clearly favor exponential only because I see the point where all ice has melted not as a wall (from which you can only go backwards to having ice again) but as a borderline between icy seas and warming seas.
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sia_10.png (forgot to include the graph, sorry)
Jim Williams: I thought this graph by Jim Pettit shows that the year-to-year loss of ice volume is caused much less by the melt seasons getting stronger (maximum-following minimum) than by refreeze seasons becoming weaker (maximum-previous minimum). Does that count?
A4R: I think Espen was not announcing that, but was wondering how soon it would be announced.
I think it's more like a Gaia principle, but rather a weak principle: Gaia is indeed a system, but it only continues to harbour life in recognizable form because the system's reaction to crises were coincidentally such to keep life alive - if not, we wouldn't be here. Life will probably be kept alive in the future as long as the future crises are just repetitions of the old ones and the old solutions are still available and still work. If the crisis is new (like global nuclear war) or the old solutions no longer work (because humans interfere with the self-regulation mechanisms) we're in unchartered territory. However I think Gaia as a whole (life on Earth) is currently not in danger, as the planet already had been through near-snowball and through iceless greenhouse eras and is currently far from either extreme. However, mankind has evolved as a species during the current icehouse climate of glacials and interglacials, and civilisation and agriculture during the current interglacial - could human civilisation adapt fast enough to climate changes toward a greenhouse?
Early Eocene had CO2 levels of 3500 ppm and high methane levels, too. All of that ended with the Azolla "event" (the length of which was still several times of man's written history) when Azolla plants consumed the CO2 from the atmosphere and then died, the remains falling into a dead sea without decay, resulting in a permanent loss of that carbon to the atmosphere.
Djprice537: I think what is meant is an ice free Arctic Ocean. The land will cool out faster without sunlight, with snow and everything, but if the sea has enough heat in it, it will eventually remain ice free.
Artful Dodger: You definitely shouldn't mess with ents. They take their time to react, but when they do, it's devastating.
which means the Central Arctic Basin is at about 60% of its usual ice area.
Jim Pettit: Very interesting volume loss graph. People tend to assume the loss happens by growing melt during the melt season... while the graph shows the large majority of it happens due to waning refreeze.
Who ordered that??
We just never see the ice drift past the Fram since whenever it gets there it's melting quickly.
DMI's graph seems a bit odd to me... when all the other graphs are moving downwards, DMI seems to stand still, and then jerks down the double amount on the next day. Is the movement really just too small too see, or is it zero because when adding up the numbers those numbers weren't updated yet?