In-case you missed it. UAH came in very very warm. Unprecedentedly warm for ENSO conditions and 2nd to 2010 which was a NINO.

UAH has come in at .51C very very warm for the ENSO conditions, nothing before like it. Global sst's are very warm too for ENSO conditions and snow cover.

Ok, that worked better, please delete my last two posts. [Done, N.] Anyways these are global sst anomaly's from the same data set Bob Tisdale gets his from. They are very warm for no NINO or even a positive/neatral ENSO. Basically 2013 is going to be a top 5 hottest year on record globally.

The Atlantic side is in peril. Overall there is clearly a fundemental base line being reached with heat retention and heat being pumped into the system up there causing Fall Ice to start to fall off as well.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/slr_sla_gbl_keep_all_66.png?t=1351416454 Oh and the SLR graphs from NOAA updated. Some adjustment from Weather. Some from Thermal Expansion and Some from the 1 Trillion Tonnes+ of land ice that melted out this year.

Jaxa updated. I am sure the Sea Ice thread on Americanwx will go empty now since 2007 is 305K behind 2012 and has huge gains right now. 2011 is 505K behind 2012. What a joke. The day 2012 passed 2011 and 2007 there was pages of posts with the denier and "skeptics" throwing a party, you know they only get a few weeks of the year to do so like April 2011. September 2009 and so on. The excuse for why the thread will go dead will be Sandy. But we all know the real reason why.

I am with chris Reynolds on this. In my daily obs of 1-3 hours per day or more the last 18 months, solar radiation is the main killer by far. Another major factor has been heat transport from the Rockies and SW United States downsloping winds heading N or NNNE into the Yukon and those regions that bring tons of heat. In 2012 for instance we saw HP set up form the Beaufort warm pool, then July 27th or so to August 4th warm Southerly flow slammed into the MYI. However the Beaufort was so warm there was no buffer 20-25C air temps plowed into the CA and Canadian Basin. I'd put Heat flux from the Atlantic at 10-15% over the years with GHG forced feedbacks typically solar insolation as the main cause. lowered albedo and such

Hey Terry, how nice or refreshing is it to post here and not have folks treat you like dog bleep if they disagree or you are wrong or post a mistake.

Those Navy ARC graphs are worthless, don't use those.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/UpTempO.php

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-v5-5-global-temp-update-for-sept-2012-0-34-deg-c/#comments Dr. Fraud has officially got his downward trend back.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/compday-198.gif?t=1349396311 check that out. We will get more images like that with more and more red showing up.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2012-deg-c/#comment-61877 I am Chris there. I think it's a conspiracy. I think they have worked on a way to use the noise to slightly alter there data set. They said the warming is the same just the recent extra record warmth is spurious. Yet there is literally ZERO EVIDENCE of it being spurious. http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/compday-195.gif?t=1349393271 NCEP has spurious warming to it appears. I think climate crook Christy and Dr. Roy have no room left to hold their personal position. And when you believe a lie you will go to the end of the Earth to protect if your self identity is tied to it, and there's is, there entire life's work is tied to this lie. And there own data set is vehemently disproving it. While all other evidence supports there data set. Now they claim up to 0.2C of spurious warming? I guess the record level energy imbalance globally was changed by David Copperfield. Unlike Sea Ice there is very few people who can contest what they are doing. I am so discouraged by this, If I am insane or that bias then I guess I am wrong. But I can't even find one piece of evidence I am wrong. On Americanwx of course no one says a word except to act like I am nuts. Please check this out and give me some feedback.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2012-deg-c/#comment-61877 I am Chris there. I think it's a conspiracy. I think they have worked on a way to use the noise to slightly alter there data set. They said the warming is the same just the recent extra record warmth is spurious. Yet there is literally ZERO EVIDENCE of it being spurious. http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/compday-195.gif?t=1349393271 NCEP has spurious warming to it appears. I think climate crook Christy and Dr. Roy have no room left to hold their personal position. And when you believe a lie you will go to the end of the Earth to protect if your self identity is tied to it, and there's is, there entire life's work is tied to this lie. And there own data set is vehemently disproving it. While all other evidence supports there data set. Now they claim up to 0.2C of spurious warming? I guess the record level energy imbalance globally was changed by David Copperfield. Unlike Sea Ice there is very few people who can contest what they are doing. I am so discouraged by this, If I am insane or that bias then I guess I am wrong. But I can't even find one piece of evidence I am wrong. On Americanwx of course no one says a word except to act like I am nuts. Please check this out and give me some feedback.

AMSU Channel 5 temps have ran into fisrt place by about .12-.13C right now over 2010. Wild, so we are basically at record warmth globally attm.

I haven't been paying close attention at the models, but we might see another period where gains slow back down to the 25-45K per day range for 4-5 days based on tonight's models. Cold air continues to build but is not widespread and get's bottle-necked over the icepack and towards the Laptev sector. Which will take a bit to cool down even with -15C 850s before ice can explode in growth there. Large blocking HP's let a lot of cold build south while two areas of heat build into the arctic. On top of that winds turn towards a compacting regime on both sides excluding the Laptev the 3-4 day. Which leads to the bottleneck. 2007 gains 721,000km2 or so on jaxa the next 10 days. I honestly can't say how this will go, this is much harder to predict than melting patterns, but giving my best educated guess not prediction, more like guess because of how long chances of being right are, if these models currently prove to be 75% correct or better on what they show for ice forming conditions the next 10 days. I'd guess that 2012 could gain 300-500K by October 9th. This would put 2012 around 4.33 to 4.53 mil or 700-900K below 2007 for last on Jaxa. well see

I haven't been paying close attention at the models, but we might see another period where gains slow back down to the 25-45K per day range for 4-5 days based on tonight's models. Cold air continues to build but is not widespread and get's bottle-necked over the icepack and towards the Laptev sector. Which will take a bit to cool down even with -15C 850s before ice can explode in growth there. Large blocking HP's let a lot of cold build south while two areas of heat build into the arctic. On top of that winds turn towards a compacting regime on both sides excluding the Laptev the 3-4 day. Which leads to the bottleneck. 2007 gains 721,000km2 or so on jaxa the next 10 days. I honestly can't say how this will go, this is much harder to predict than melting patterns, but giving my best educated guess not prediction, more like guess because of how long chances of being right are, if these models currently prove to be 75% correct or better on what they show for ice forming conditions the next 10 days. I'd guess that 2012 could gain 300-500K by October 9th. This would put 2012 around 4.33 to 4.53 mil or 700-900K below 2007 for last on Jaxa.

AMSU channel 5 temps are now running near record levels without a NINO.

That map showing 20C probably hasn't updated well with maybe sparse data there? These temps skyrocketed early this summer when large HP's and warm southerly flows continually pumped heat into the region. The biggest player is solar insolaion. Greenland is looking to get torched. http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/12zECMWF6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA-4.gif That's day 6-10 euro 850mb temp anomaly's. albedo already dropping. http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=514 The southern 1/3rd at least will continue to pump out melt water and possibly show the dark ice again with heat intrusions like this. On top of that the NW Atlantic is on fire: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120918121551.htm It's no wonder SLPs don't move around the region to the South this time of year, they shoot up West of Greenland or over it but are slower and pump so much more heat over Greenland. This is when snow is supposed to pile up before precipitation slows during the dead of winter. With the freeze level getting to 7-8K feet it won't be snowing.

Everything Ive read says 360km3 = 1MM not 510km3. At least in the "real world" that's what they say.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w109/frivolousz21/00zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA144.gif?t=1347952917 This might hurt it too Terry. The trade off for chilly September air is not worth these kind of heat intrusions up North

Thanks Terry, yeah the IJIS stuff is showing ice starting to form. If you don't know I am frivolousz21 at americanwx. I thought for a moment he was referring to new numerical data. The Healy is showing colder temps finally with dark skies reaching down to 20f

where are you getting data for the 16th and 17th? I haven't seen any updates past the 15th?

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2012/sep/ More losses coming latest AMSR2 image in concert with modis showing large compaction

Rob, Holy Mother of God. That guy arguing with you is not of our reality. What the ???