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Fufufunknknk
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Hi Chris, thanks for the response. I'll go read the article you suggested. Living in a mountainous area, my experience with snow and ice melt is intuitive: sunlight melts ice but the main factors are weather conditions. A rain, even a cold rain, causes much more melt than sun. Likewise a warm wind can remove cm's per hour while sunlight on a cold day has almost no effect. Sunlight's greatest effect is where there is a dark colored wick to absorb and re-radiate/transport the solar heat. Because of this, I assumed that on a cold summer day in the high altitudes, the ice would remain relatively constant. I wonder how constant the temperatures are over the surface of the ice: if micro-climates don't play a large role in melting the ice at high altitudes.
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I thought the major source of melting in Greenland was the warmer air flows coming from a warmer ocean and neighboring continent. I assumed that the ice free line would gradually creep north and have a higher altitude but that at higher altitudes and latitudes, Greenland would actually gain ice from increased snowfalls? Anyone? (I did try to research this but I don't seem to know what key words to use that return results.)
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
As an amateur who predicted the area (or was it extent) to fall to 2 million last year, I thought I would get my predictions out of the way early, before the blog gets busy with the more professional and able forecasters: 8 days with less than 1.5 million. This is based on the same line of thought (I refuse to call it 'reasoning') as last year: once the ice levels decrease past a certain point, the melt will continue past what have been the up until now normal influences.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry for the off topic post. I thought I remembered someone asking about the topology of Greenland and are there any exits below sealevel. I stumbled across this on the BBC about the new radar survey of Greenland. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23866810
I'll stay at 3.2, though this has the feeling of being anchored by my earlier guess. But as rational as I can make it: I still think the ice is porely (ha ha) and I think Stormy August will take a big hit out of what is left.
If had my druthers, I would really like to see all scientists, as part of their phd, be forced to do at least one project where they start from first principles and derive the theory/experiment/ etc. This whole basing things on literature and standing the shoulders of giants gets gamed into academic tiddliwinks. But the issue here isn't an academic one about having a career based on trendy articles that are forgotten 5 years later, it is about, when faced with serious consequences, the moral obligation to publish the range of outcomes and make clear how limited 95% is.
@Dorlomin Chamberlain, arguably, took the conservative position. Conservative != good science. Often correlated, perhaps, with good science, but not the same as. Similarly, in regards to the comment "Do your own [non conservative] research and publish it", it is a bit like trying to prove that meat tastes good by asking vegitarians to try it. Perhaps you meant "Create your own community, create standards for those communities that work given the needs of science, create your own journals, do your own research and then publish it." For what it is worth, I think that science is both too conservative and, at the same time, very trendy. Perhaps that is the same thing though.
SHould say "From the article...."
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
Article from BBC about disappearing Alaskan village. Note the quote: "The US government imposed this Western lifestyle on us, gave us their burdens and now they expect us to pick everything up smallpox after an Indian.
Toggle Commented Jul 30, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
DOug noted that "a scant decade or so ago, anybody daring to hypothesize Arctic sea ice reaching its present parlous condition by the year 2013 would also have been citing an extreme worst-case scenario and would have been mocked by more than the usual suspects" Maybe it is time that the critics and all of their predictions from back then where held to the flame. Their predictions are on record, no?
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
But whatever, I said my piece, I bow out.
Toggle Commented Jul 23, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
@JC: Same thing: global warming caused by using oil and coal as fuels destroys the environment.
Toggle Commented Jul 23, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
At the very least, the names should be Inuit terms for damage, devil, destruction, etc. That at least bridges the gap between popular imagination and destruction. I can see TV weathermen telling that story for fun if nothing else and leaving the impression in local people's minds that Arctic cyclones are bad and destroy things.
Toggle Commented Jul 23, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
I think Inuit names is a very poor idea. While honoring the Inuit people and Inuit heritage with names is great, protecting the Arctic is a better way of honoring them. I see naming the cyclones after the Inuit as a way to create the popular perception that Arctic cyclones are natural (as in white culture all things native = natural). Naming results of damage from a foreign culture after the Inuit, even the day to day names, is a bit like raping someone and then naming the abortion and infertility after them to 'honor' them.
Toggle Commented Jul 23, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
....and I think the whole weather pattern should be named after the oil/coal/ industry, with the specific triggers named after the GOP.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
I second Villabolo's comment. Nice sentiment but perhaps patronizing to name the storms after someone else's traditions, e.g. Atlanta Braves, Washington Redskins, etc.. Personally I would rather honer the various indigineous people's by saving their climate and ecology. For that reason, I think we only have the right to name the things after the destructors.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2013 on The Naming of Arctic Cyclones at Arctic Sea Ice
Nevin, Are you removing posts? wouldn't a thunk it.
I understand the dark humor aspect but regarding the naming, there should also be a scale, e.g.: "And in related weather news, Arctic Cyclone Inhofe is forecast to reach Exxon class early next week. However there is a slight chance it could get as strong as GOP strength."
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice
Wow, Jeremy, not to respond to trolls on a fairly troll free forum (which must frustrate you) but you really need a reading comprehension course.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2013 on PIOMAS July 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'll stay with 2.2 The rational is more not changing horses at halftime than any intuition or modeling. However, if I was doing it again, I would say 3.2 since I think there are large parts of the ice that have little damage and won't be touched now, much more than I thought earlier. Take which ever prediction seems more in line with what the survey requires i guess.
I was trying to discuss rationales, not justify the lack of product, although my statement can certainly be read like that in hindsight. I actually do some work with computer vision, although not on satellite images and I am familiar with the problems with datasets and different formats. I am not familiar with satellite formats; the only satelite data i have ever worked with are GIS topo maps and so on, but on a small enough scale that I could conveniently avoid problems with projections and, more importantly, data for which I had a ground truth so that i could pretty much plug it into Grass or whatever (e.g. QGIS) and do my import relatively automatically. Maybe what is needed is a standard/specification, or three or four standards, to be pushed so that the agencies have a target that is independent of thier internal situation. Maybe, it is just a matter of convincing them that there is a need for this product. However, I yield to your opinion because i have no idea what i am talking about and i repeat my thanks for your and others work.
Toggle Commented Jul 10, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
My suggestion: keep up the video work. They are entertaining and moreover, good practice for the TED talk.
Regarding the images, if I was in charge of a US agency, I would distribute raw data and nothing else. My rational is: 1. Raw data is the purest we have for scientific work. I don't know how pure that is, actually, as I assume it requires some processing from satellite to file system. BUt still, there is value in providing it. 2. In this climate of GOP anti-science, putting out a product that retouches data and makes global warming, arctic melt more visible is more than my job is worth. It doesn't matter how innocent or valuable the tansformation is, it is a transformation adn therefore 'tempering'. 3. There is a practical problem of which transformations to use, etc. If I am like us here on the site ['us' used very, very, very loosely], I still want to know what transformations were used so I can understand artifacts etc. So maybe the rational is that it is better to do nothing. As an amateur however, I really appreciate the work you all do (A-Team especially singled out).
Toggle Commented Jul 9, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for another great post.
Maybe this link explains what i meant better. http://www.thenakedscientists.com/HTML/content/kitchenscience/exp/-0c2ee7e805/ Only instead of milk cooling the coffee by mixing, ice can be thoguht of as a layer of milk poured on top of the coffee that initially is at the same temperature as the coffee.
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice